Wednesday-Night

January 8, 2008

It really is a horse race! We venture that Hillary Clinton’s win in New Hampshire may be a good thing for the Obama campaign in that going into the next primaries, and especially Super Tuesday, he will not have to suffer the attacks that focus on the front-runner (as in the tag-team of Obama and Edwards that attacked Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire). Senator Clinton’s win in New Hampshire may be attributable in part to the newly vulnerable image projected in the last days and the lowering of expectations - she attracted the voters (particularly women and older voters) who would have stubbornly voted against a juggernaut, but felt comfortable giving her their votes, especially in light of the polls that had indicated that Obama didn’t need their votes to win. If we are correct in this analysis, both camps will be revamping their messages. An interesting dilemma: how to project a winning image, without being too winning.
Clinton Stuns Obama; McCain Wins
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York rode a wave of female support to victory over Senator Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night. In the Republican primary, meanwhile, Senator John McCain of Arizona revived his presidential bid with a Lazarus-like win.
The voting did little to clarify the muddied Republican field. Messrs. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are all girding for battle, and some political analysts still see Mr. Thompson as a wild card in southern primaries. And Mr. Giuliani, whose strategy calls for winning big in later states such as Florida and the Feb. 5 primaries in New York, New Jersey, and California, finished near the back of the pack here.
Clinton Wins in N.H.: I ‘Found My Voice’
Clinton beat out Sen. Barack Obama, who, riding a wave of momentum from his Iowa caucus victory, battled for a close second place in the Granite State.
After a devastating third place finish in Iowa, the narrow victory in New Hampshire allows Clinton to claim a comeback of sorts, a narrative that fits well with her husband’s surprise 1992 finish in New Hampshire that led to his nickname “The Comeback Kid.”
The tight race has also secured Obama as a formidable opponent for Clinton, setting up what may become a bloody political battle between the two Democratic rivals going into the big-state primaries Feb. 5.
‘Comeback’ Clinton claims NH for her own
In the end, though, key voting blocs were there for Clinton in New Hampshire — or weren’t there for Obama, depending on how the campaigns frame it. According to exit polling conducted by The Associated Press and the networks, far more women voted than men; Clinton won 45 percent of them compared to 36 for Obama.
Also according to exit polls, only half as many New Hampshire voters under 30 turned out as in Iowa, depriving Obama of crucial support.
With 89 percent of precincts reporting, CNN projected Clinton the winner of the first-in-the-nation primary with 39 percent of the vote to Obama’s 37.
Self-styled independents, who made up 43 percent of all voters polled, said they voted for Obama by a margin of 43 percent to 31 percent for Clinton.
But Clinton was ahead of Obama 45 percent to 34 percent among those who said they were registered.
For Clinton, New Hampshire Could Deliver Devastating One-Two Punch
BETH FOUHY AP News
Jan 08, 2008 13:35 EST
If New Hampshire 16 years ago threw a lifeline to Bill Clinton’s struggling candidacy, the state’s primary Tuesday could put Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential bid on life support
New Hampshire Towns Running Out Of Ballots, Especially For The Dems
By Eric Kleefeld - 1:19PM
Voter turnout for the New Hampshire primary is happening more rapidly than anyone had previously expected — so much, in fact, that the Secretary of State’s office has gotten requests from various towns to send more ballots, before they run out.
With Tears, Clinton Regains Center of Attention
By NICHOLAS WAPSHOTT, Staff Reporter of the Sun
A day in the life of a candidate under intense pressure takes many turns. One moment, Senator Clinton compared herself to Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s “Iron Lady” and a direct descendant of fearless woman warriors Boudica and Elizabeth I. The next, in the Café Espresso in Portsmouth, N.H., she choked back tears as she pondered losing today’s New Hampshire primary. The two very different faces of Mrs. Clinton, one determined and defiant, the other wistful and vulnerable, left voters wondering whether the incessant strain of the increasingly rough Democratic campaign is genuinely getting under her skin, or whether it was a cynical ruse to grab the headlines and rustle up some sympathy on the morning the Granite State votes.
Obama Reaches Out to Kenyan Leaders
As he campaigned for his presidential bid in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Barack Obama was following developments in Kenya and was working with the U.S. State Department to speak with Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki.
Mr. Obama, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee whose father was Kenyan, spoke Monday with opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kenya. Mr. Obama asked Mr. Odinga to meet directly with the president without any pre-conditions, a spokesman for Mr. Obama’s spokesman said.
“He said the country would see the message that both you and Kibaki do not want chaos and that violence on all sides must stop,” said the spokesman, Robert Gibbs. “If the country sees you talking and a willingness to resolve this political situation peacefully, a powerful message will be sent to the people.”
For the last week, as he campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mr. Obama has been involved in talks between the United States and Kenyan leaders. He spoke to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice a week ago, aides said, and on Saturday he discussed the conditions with Mike Rannenberger, the U.S. ambassador to Kenya.

January 7
We confess to having taped the weekend debates and then stayed up much too late watching them. Despite some sharp exchanges among the Democrats, we did not find them overly shrill, were impressed with the quality of discussion and bemoan the fact that we do not see similar events in Canada. We particularly appreciated the opportunity to watch Governor Bill Richardson display his expertise and credentials - he’s not as smooth and certainly not as well-tailored as the three leading candidates, but he makes a lot of sense. We wish the media paid him more attention.
Herewith some other views:
Debating New Hampshire
: A weekend with the GOP
An NRO (National Review Online) Symposium
One weekend, two debates — how does this weekend leave the Republican candidates? National Review Online asked a group of political observers and hands. And their views of who gained and who lost ground are quite different.
For your entertainment, or gnashing of teeth: the ultimate neo-con view
President Mike Huckabee?
William Kristol, Op-ed, New York Times
“Now it’s true that many conservatives have serious doubts about Huckabee’s positions, especially on foreign policy [we sincerely hope so!] , and his record, particularly on taxes. The conservative establishment is strikingly hostile to Huckabee — for both good and bad reasons. But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. And Huckabee is a talented politician.”
Two parties’ presidential candidates hold very different debates
By DAVID LIGHTMAN AND STEVEN THOMMA, McClatchy Newspapers
Democratic presidential candidates sparred, sometimes intensely, over who among them was the true change agent, while their Republican counterparts held a virtual tea party Saturday night, as both groups held back-to-back debates just days before New Hampshire’s Tuesday primary.
President Clinton Sees Post-Iowa ‘Tidal Wave,’ Faults Press for Obama ‘Fairy Tale’
Posted by Josh Gerstein
Mon, 7 Jan 2008 at 10:12 PM
Just hours after his wife got choked up on the campaign trail, President Clinton showed anger and frustration as he complained that the press has given a free pass to the nascent front-runner in the Democratic presidential contest, Senator Obama of Illinois.
… The criticism of Mr. Obama and the press appeared to be the sharpest Mr. Clinton has offered publicly since his interview with Charlie Rose last month. The former president seemed to take care not to repeat his widely-reported suggestion that a vote for Mr. Obama was a “roll [of] the dice,” but Mr. Clinton delivered most of the hard-edged points from that critique and then some.
Obama’s Other Life - Joe Klein, Swampland
One of the more extraordinary stories of the Obama campaign has been playing out behind the scenes over the past week as the candidate has been working on a daily basis to try to calm things down in his father’s homeland and his grandmother’s home, Kenya, where a contested election has led to riots. … I haven’t been able to talk to Obama directly about this–he is sort of busy right now–but it does seem noteworthy that, in the midst of the most amazing week of his life, Barack Obama has found the time to do a some diplomatic scut-work. I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot of this sort of thing if he wins the nomination and is elected President.

January 6
Republican Rivals Go After One Another in Forum
By MICHAEL LUO
PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — After being pounded by his rivals at the Republican debate on Saturday, Mitt Romney struck back with a vengeance on Sunday by aggressively going after his main rivals, Senator John McCain of Arizona and Mike Huckabee, accusing them of breaking with Republican orthodoxy on taxes. The exchanges were some of the most heated and angry of the Republican campaign.

January 5
Fresh from the triumphs of two newcomers in Iowa, presidential candidates in both parties put on intense, do-or-die debates in New Hampshire just three days before that state’s primary. Three Democratic candidates are now engaged in a tight race that has captured the imaginations of voters and they confronted each other head on. The Republican field is still more scrambled and so their debate was less focused, though Mitt Romney was the chief target of attacks.
It took little time for twelve months of tension between the top three Democratic candidates to burst out into the open. Coming off a loss in Iowa and badly needing a win in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton wasted little time in going afterBarack Obama, sparking a blunt discussion about the basic dynamic of this campaign - change versus experience.
Among Republicans, Mitt Romney took by far the most incoming fire - and the most personal. Time and again, Romney’s changes of position on key issues were the targets of enemy fire.
At one point in a discussion over foreign policy, Romney said to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, “Don’t try and characterize my position.” Huckabee: “Which one.”
Later in the evening, after Romney described himself as the candidate of change in the GOP field, John McCain said, “We disagree on a lot of topics, but I agree, you are the candidate of change.” Romney at times appeared exasperated at the attacks, saying, “The continued personal barbs are interesting but unnecessary.”

CBC Washington File
Henry Champ
Generally I agree with those readers who say journalists pay too much attention to the horse-race factor in elections rather than to where candidates stand on the issues. But not this time.
Not in New Hampshire and not at this juncture in this presidential campaign.
There will be plenty of time to debate issues in the months ahead, before the big vote in November. Right now, it is the numbers in the polls that is what this story is all about.
Polls in the US state of New Hampshire suggest Barack Obama is gaining momentum over Hillary Clinton in the Democrat presidency battle.
Two new polls give Sen Obama a double digit lead after earlier ones suggested he had drawn level.
Obama at 39, McCain at 32, in new poll
by John McCormick, Chicago Tribune
NASHUA, N.H. — Sen. Barack Obama has jumped into double-digit lead in the latest CNN/WMUR nightly tracking poll for New Hampshire.
With just two days remaining before the state’s primary, the Illinois Democrat leads with 39 percent, compared to 29 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. The survey was conducted Saturday and early Sunday.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is at 32 percent, followed at 26 percent by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 14 percent.
And a view from Australia
A Democrat even Republicans can like
Andrew Sullivan, The Australian
January 07, 2008
THE historical analogies for the phenomenon that is Barack Obama have already stretched credibility. For a while, pundits likened him to the Democratic Party’s 1950s effete loser Adlai Stevenson. But Obama doesn’t seem like such an airhead after his gritty, crushing defeat of Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
So now the favourite analogy is JFK: the young, hopeful rhetorician urging a New Frontier after two terms of conservatism. But that doesn’t work either: John F. Kennedy won by out-hawking Richard Nixon in 1960, and Obama is a clear anti-Iraq war candidate. Bobby Kennedy is more apposite: a mix of inner steel and an evolving moral candidacy. Just as a vote for RFK in 1968 was seen by many as a form of collective self-absolution for Vietnam, so Obama resonates among many Americans who do not recognise what their country has become these past few years.
The analogy that worries Republicans the most is a more recent one. Could Obama be a potential liberal version of Ronald Reagan? Could he do for the Democrats what Reagan did for the Republicans a quarter century ago? It’s increasingly possible. Reagan was the cutting edge of the previous realignment in US politics. With a good-natured civil appeal to Democrats who felt abandoned by their party under Jimmy Carter, Reagan revolutionised the reach of his party.

December 12 2007
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Barack Obama has chipped away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in New Hampshire locking the Democrats in a statistical tie a month before the first presidential primary, according to a CNN/WMUR Poll released Wednesday. More