Wednesday-Night

Why Pakistan Matters
Washington struggled to come to terms with Bhutto’s death — the White House hoped she would share power with Musharraf and had made her the centerpiece of its latest plan for Pakistan. While the White House continued to back Musharraf’s grip on power as the best near-term key to Pakistan’s survival, others are more blunt in their assessment. Anthony Zinni, former chief of the Pentagon’s Central Command, whose remit includes Pakistan, warns that extremist groups are ‘trying to ignite Pakistan into the kind of chaos they need to survive, and create a fundamentalist, even radical, Islamic government.’
It doesn’t take much insight to see the dangers of that outcome. Failure to keep the sole Muslim nuclear power stable, whole and democratic might be catastrophic not just for the war on terrorism and the stability of South Asia but also for the future of Islam and the relations between Islamic states and the West. Yet Bhutto’s assassination has exposed how little influence the U.S. — or any other outside power — has on the nation that was bloodily carved out of India when the British left 60 years ago, and which has been bedeviled by violence and venal politics ever since.
(Strategic Forecasting -Stratfor- Analysis January 2, 2008)
Pakistan, Bhutto and the U.S.-Jihadist Endgame

February 19
(NYT) Musharraf’s Party Accepts Defeat
LAHORE, Pakistan — Pakistan appeared on Tuesday to be heading for a transition to an elected civilian government after President Pervez Musharraf told visiting United States senators that he accepted the resounding defeat of his party in elections and would work with a new Parliament.
(Al Jazeera) The Pakistan People’s Party has said it will try to form a coalition goverment without the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q.
The PPP won the most seats in the national assembly in Monday’s election, while President Pervez Musharraf’s supporters in the PML-Q trailed a distant third.
(The Guardian) Bhutto’s party to form coalition with Sharif
The Pakistan People’s party will seek a national government that includes supporters of Nawaz Sharif, the husband of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto said today.
But Asif Zardari said the PPP was not interested in entering a coalition with President Pervez Musharraf’s allies, who lost heavily in yesterday’s parliamentary elections.
As Zardari held out the prospect of an alliance between the PPP and Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N party – the two big winners from the election - Sharif stuck to his uncompromising line on Musharraf.
February 18
(IPS) PAKISTAN: Voters Get Carrots, Sticks in Lacklustre Polls
Analysis by Beena Sarwar
KARACHI - Voter apathy marked Monday’s general elections that were accompanied by allegations of massive manipulations and violence on the one hand and lofty promises of development and cash gifts by some candidates on the other.
(The Independent) Increase in violence threatens low turnout in Pakistan
Andrew Buncombe in Islamabad and Omar Waraich in Lahore
Against a backdrop of the constant threat of violence, more than 80,000 troops will join police in a massive security operation across the country. Yet despite such measures, experts say the threat of violence – a total of 47 people were killed in a suicide bomb attack on Saturday – combined with cynicism about the likely fairness of the result is expect to result in a low turnout.
February 17
No Known Candidates in Pakistan Election
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — When Pakistanis take part in Monday’s crucial parliamentary elections, the country’s most talked about politicians won’t be on the ballot.
Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, and President Pervez Musharraf is not up for re-election but could be vulnerable to impeachment if the opposition takes commanding control of parliament.
Bhutto’s death left Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted as prime minister in a 1999 coup, the nation’s most prominent opposition leader. But he can’t run either after being convicted of hijacking and terrorism more than a decade ago — charges he said were politically motivated.
February 16
Pakistan Bombing Kills as Many as 45 Before Elections
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — A suicide bomber in Pakistan killed as many as 45 people and left dozens injured near the election office of the late Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party in Parachinar, Pakistan, ahead of elections in two days.
February 15
(Al Jazeera) Pakistan election special with Sir David Frost
(CNN) Pakistan elections: Facts and figures
(The Independent) Loss of core support means Musharraf’s party faces disaster
… As Pakistan lurches through the final week of election campaigning, all the opinion polls suggest that the party created by President Pervez Musharraf to buttress his military rule does not enjoy such good fortune. Indeed, they reveal that support may stand as low as 12 per cent as a resurgent opposition continues to feed on the President’s increasing unpopularity. More
New poll-rigging row in Pakistan
Fraud fears overshadow Pakistan polls
On the day she was assassinated in December, Ms Bhutto was about to present evidence which cast grave doubt on whether Pakistan’s parliamentary elections would be free and fair. The report she had with her on the day she died talks of election violence, intimidation and corrupt officials. According to the PPP, nothing has changed.
February 8
(BBC) Scotland Yard’s report into the murder of Pakistan’s former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is likely to fuel, rather than settle, the controversies surrounding the issue. More
(Independent) Benazir Bhutto died of a “severe head injury” and not a gunshot wound in an attack by a lone terrorist, Scotland Yard said today. More
Bhutto’s party fights for her legacy
February 4 2008
Al-Qaeda Commander Moved Freely in Pakistan
Libyan Killed Last Week Operated Openly
By Imtiaz Ali and Craig Whitlock
Washington Post Foreign Service
PESHAWAR, Pakistan, Feb. 3 — A Libyan al-Qaeda commander who was killed last week in northwestern Pakistan had lived there for years and, despite a $200,000 U.S. bounty on his head, felt secure enough to meet officials and visit hospitals, according to officials and residents of this city.
… The lack of progress in hunting al-Qaeda commanders such as Libi has fueled frustration among U.S., Afghan and European officials, who say al-Qaeda and its Taliban allies regularly plan operations abroad from havens in Pakistan. The Pakistani government has barred U.S. forces from searching for al-Qaeda leaders on its soil.
January 28
Foreign Policy: Five elections to watch in 2008
Pakistan
Parliamentary elections on Feb. 18
The contenders: Four major political parties will be vying for a share of power: President Pervez Musharraf’s faction of the Pakistan Muslim League (known as the PML-Q), former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party (the PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party of the late former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and the Islamist Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which allied with Musharraf’s party during the last legislative elections in 2002.
Why it matters: Do you even have to ask? Pakistan today is a combustible brew of worsening political instability, increasing repression, and growing Islamic militancy—in a state with a history of nuclear proliferation. When rioters burned down election offices in Sindh Province after Bhutto’s assassination, the government postponed the elections for six weeks. Speculation is rife that the security services will use the extra time to rig the elections in favor of Musharraf’s party, a fear underscored by the fact that Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper’s published the leaked “official” results of the elections—all the way back in December. Musharraf has promised “free and fair” contests, but his word isn’t exactly golden in Pakistan these days. Assuming he isn’t willing to share power, bet on blood in the streets on February 19, and a coup can’t be ruled out.
January 27
Pakistan Shuns C.I.A. Buildup Sought by U.S.
WASHINGTON — The top two American intelligence officials traveled secretly to Pakistan early this month to press President Pervez Musharraf to allow the Central Intelligence Agency greater latitude to operate in the tribal territories where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and other militant groups are all active, according to several officials who have been briefed on the visit.
January 25
President Pervez Musharraf has said that Pakistan’s success in fighting terrorism is critical and any failure could impact on the West.
In an address to a British think tank, he called for support and encouragement not “criticisms and insinuations”. He outlined his strategy for defeating al-Qaeda and the Taleban, and securing Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan.
January 24
Ex-Officers Call on Musharraf to Step Down Before Elections
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — An influential group of former military officers has called on Pakistan’s embattled president to step down, a move that could further undermine him before parliamentary elections next month.
A statement by the group, the Pakistan Ex-Servicemen’s Society, blamed the president, Pervez Musharraf, for the current crisis and said Mr. Musharraf, the former army commander, no longer “represents the unity and the symbol of the federation as president.”
January 21
Democrat Musharraf visits Europe
Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president, has pledged to hold free elections as he began a European trip aimed at bolstering outside support.
But addressing journalists at Brussels, the Belgian capital on Monday, he urged the West not to hold Pakistan to unrealistic rights standards.
“We must have fair and transparent elections,” on February 18, he said. “Whoever wins, obviously power will be handed over to them.”
“We are for democracy and I have introduced the essence of democracy, but we cannot be as forward looking as you (in the West) are.
January 12
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has ruled out a United Nations inquiry into the assassination of the opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto.
He told the French paper Le Figaro that Pakistan had its own institutions to investigate the killing and that they were being assisted by the UK.The president said he hoped the results of the investigation would be published before February’s parliamentary vote.
Ms Bhutto’s son, Bilawal, has repeatedly called for a UN inquiry.
January 6, 2008
(BBC) Pakistan’s President Musharraf has said for the first time that murdered opposition leader Benazir Bhutto may have been shot.
Until now Pakistani officials have maintained that Ms Bhutto had banged her head on part of her car’s sunroof.
(Pakistan Daily Times) VIEW: Post-assassination Pakistan
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi
Opposition to Musharraf’s continued stay in office is increasing. In the event that the PPP and the PMLN take a significant portion of the vote in the election, an open confrontation between them and Musharraf cannot be ruled out.
January 4
The Telegraph
A 19-year-old who has just seen his mother killed in a suicide bomb attack, a disgraced former prime minister who has been banned from holding public office for his involvement in corruption, and a dictator who has been obliged to remove his military uniform only with extreme reluctance so that he can at least give the appearance of supporting civilian rule.
At first glance, Bilawal Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf, respectively the key figures in Pakistan’s delayed election process, do not inspire confidence that the faltering transition from military dictatorship to functioning democracy has the least chance of success. More
January 2
Stratfor Geopolitical Weekly
The endgame of the U.S.-jihadist war always had to be played out in Pakistan. There are two reasons that could account for this. The first is simple: Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda command cell are located in Pakistan. The war cannot end while the command cell functions or has a chance of regenerating. The second reason is more complicated. The United States and NATO are engaged in a war in Afghanistan. Where the Soviets lost with 300,000 troops, the Americans and NATO are fighting with less than 50,000. Any hope of defeating the Taliban, or of reaching some sort of accommodation, depends on isolating them from Pakistan. So long as the Taliban have sanctuary and logistical support from Pakistan, transferring all coalition troops in Iraq to Afghanistan would have no effect. And withdrawing from Afghanistan would return the situation to the status quo before Sept. 11. If dealing with the Taliban and destroying al Qaeda are part of any endgame, the key lies in Pakistan.
U.S. strategy in Pakistan has been to support Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and rely on him to purge and shape his country’s army to the extent possible to gain its support in attacking al Qaeda in the North, contain Islamist radicals in the rest of the country and interdict supplies and reinforcements flowing to the Taliban from Pakistan. It was always understood that this strategy was triply flawed.
… Someone killed Benazir Bhutto and changed the entire dynamic of Pakistan. Though Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party probably would have gained a substantial number of seats, it was unlikely to sweep the election and seriously threaten the military’s hold on power. Bhutto was simply one of the many forces competing for power. As a woman, representing an essentially secular party, she was unlikely to be a decisive winner. She was highly visible and a factor in Pakistani politics, but if Musharraf were threatened, the threat would not come from her.
Therefore, her murder is a mystery. It is actually a mystery on two levels. First, it is not clear who did it. Second, it is not clear how the deed was done. … the confusion in this case appears to be way beyond the norm.
Who would want Bhutto dead? Musharraf had little motivation. He had enemies, and she was one of them, but she was far from the most dangerous of them. And killing her would threaten an election that did not threaten him or his transition to a new status. Ordering her death thus would not have made a great deal of sense for Musharraf.
Whoever ordered her death would have had one of two motives. First, they wanted to destabilize Pakistan, or second, they wanted to kill her in such a way as to weaken Musharraf’s position by showing that the state of emergency had failed. The jihadists certainly had every reason to want to kill her — along with a long list of Pakistani politicians, including Musharraf. They want to destabilize Pakistan, but if they can do so and implicate Musharraf at the same time, so much the sweeter.
The loser in the assassination was Musharraf. He is probably too canny a politician to have planned the killing without anticipating this outcome. Whoever did this wanted to do more than kill Bhutto. They wanted to derail Musharraf’s attempt to retain his control over the government. This was a complex operation designed to create confusion.
… Our first suspect is al Qaeda sympathizers who would benefit from the confusion spawned by the killing of an important political leader. The more allegations of complicity in the killing are thrown against the regime, the more the military regime is destabilized — thus expanding opportunities for jihadists to sow even more instability. Our second suspects are elements in the army wanting to use the assassination to force Musharraf out, replace him with a new personality and justify a massive crackdown.
December 31
Why Benazir Bhutto posed a threat
MANIPAL, India, Dec. 31
Column: Future Present
On Nov. 7 this columnist wrote that Pakistani politician Benazir Bhutto’s election plans were likely to fail “if she survives.” The skepticism over her longevity was because of the threat she represented to both the Punjabi component in the Pakistan army and to the continuation of the military’s monopoly over state power.
While President Pervez Musharraf avoided challenging the latter, since 9/11 he has quietly but systematically sought to reduce the suffocating grip of the Punjabis over the army, giving better representation to Mohajirs, Balochis, Pashtuns and even a few Sindhis in the higher reaches of both the military as well as the civil administration. Had there been a teaming up between the wily Musharraf and the mercurial Bhutto, especially after he was made to quit as army chief, the two may have succeeded in leveraging anti-army sentiment in Pakistan enough to send the soldiers back to their barracks. More

My heart bleeds for Pakistan. It deserves better than this grotesque feudal charade by Pakistan-born writer, broadcaster and commentator, Tariq Ali
December 30, 2007
Bhutto party names son as leader, will contest election
We expect that the news of 19 year-old Bilawal Bhutto’s designation as Benazir’s heir (not to mention his father Asif Ali Zardari, ‘Mr. Ten Percent’, as co-chair) may stir up problems within the PPP. Much as the feudal nature of the PPP is touted, there must surely come a time when the Bhuttos relinquish their ‘hereditary right’ to the leadership. Our suspicions appear to be confirmed by the comments at Bilawal Zardari Becomes New PPP Chairman and Benazir Bhutto’s Successor
December 27, 2007
Bhutto Assassination Sparks Chaos
By Griff Witte Washington Post Foreign Service
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan, Dec. 27 — Benazir Bhutto, for decades the central figure in a tortured struggle to bring democratic rule to Pakistan, was assassinated Thursday afternoon as she waved to supporters after a political rally, plunging the country into new turmoil just days before scheduled elections. Full article

December 27
A fascinating and revealing interview with Gail Sheehy that bears out the writer’s description of Benazir Bhutto: “Like her country, Bhutto is a riddle. Brilliant, beautiful, fearless, she is also ruthlessly ambitious, devious and corrupt.”
‘A Wrong Must Be Righted’
An interview with Benazir Bhutto
By Gail Sheehy
December 27, 2007
Editor’s note: The assassination of Pakistan’s Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27 occurred after PARADE’s Jan. 6 issue went to press.
Bhutto’s murder adds more danger and confusion to the already chaotic situation in this region. Pakistan is vital to U.S. security interests and the global fight against terrorism. In late November, PARADE sent Contributing Editor and best-selling author Gail Sheehy to Pakistan to interview former Prime Minister Bhutto as she campaigned through the country. Bhutto told Sheehy that she had long been a target of terrorists as well as the Musharraf government. She knew she could be murdered at any time.
PARADE’s Jan. 6 interview with Bhutto is one of the last interviews of her complex life.
After her assassination, PARADE immediately posted the entire interview online.