Wednesday-Night

March 4 2008

Mrs. Clinton’s victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island cut into Mr. Obama’s delegate lead by 15 delegates at most, and by as few as 5, depending on the final accounting in Texas, which was expected Thursday afternoon.
[March 27 Not so fast! “Despite winning the popular vote in Texas, Hillary Clinton and her advisers are terrified that they’re about to suffer an Al Gore moment by losing in the pledged delegates race to Barack Obama beginning with county conventions on Saturday.” More]
Mr. Obama now has 1,299 delegates, compared with 1,180 for Mrs. Clinton, based on a count of pledged and projected delegates prepared by The New York Times. A candidate needs 2,025 to claim the nomination, a figure that neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama can reach without the votes of so-called superdelegates — party officials and elected Democrats who are awarded automatic seats. (NYT March 6)

To be a winner you have to win. And Tuesday night Hillary Clinton unreservedly won three out of four states. Barack Obama, however, has won twice as many primary and caucus states overall, leads substantially in the popular vote and continues to hold a mathematically insurmountable lead in elected delegates.
For two or three days, the Clinton campaign will spin itself — and the media — silly, breathlessly celebrating her overwhelming victories in Rhode Island and Ohio and her squeaker in Texas. But after the confetti is swept and the champagne bottles are tossed, a more sober reality will take hold. Not just that her net gain of delegates this week will be, at most, in the single digits. But worse. There is no plausible scenario in which Clinton can win the nomination. At least, not democratically. More from Huffington Post
The night Hillary brought the hammer down
Henry Champ (CBC)
That is what this race has become for the Democrats: “A fine mess.”
(NYT) Big Wins for Clinton in Texas and Ohio; McCain Clinches Race as Foe Concedes
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton defeated Senator Barack Obama in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday, ending a string of defeats and allowing her to soldier on in a Democratic presidential nomination race that now seems unlikely to end any time soon.
Mrs. Clinton also won Rhode Island, while Mr. Obama won in Vermont. But the results mean that Mrs. Clinton won the two states she most needed to keep her candidacy alive.
Her victory in Texas was razor thin and came only after most Americans had gone to bed. But by winning decisively in Ohio earlier in the evening, Mrs. Clinton was able to deliver a televised victory speech in time for the late-night news. And the result there allowed her to cast Tuesday as the beginning of a comeback even though she stood a good chance of gaining no ground against Mr. Obama in the hunt for delegates.
(The Independent) Clinton revives hopes as key wins thwart Obama
It was an astonishing comeback for the former First Lady and one-time frontrunner whose presidential aspirations had been hanging by a thread in the wake of 11 consecutive primary and caucus victories chalked up over the past month by her rival, Barack Obama.
She may not have entirely seized back the momentum in the race – she remains behind in the nominating delegate count, and also in the overall popular vote – but she certainly succeeded in halting Senator Obama’s own momentum, which had seemed well-nigh unstoppable until just a few days before yesterday’s contests.

For the Democrats

Ohio Primary 161 delegates
Rhode Island Primary 32 delegates
Texas Primary 228 delegates
Vermont Primary 23 delegates

For the Republicans

Ohio Primary 88 delegates
Rhode Island Primary 20 delegates
Texas Primary 140 delegates
Vermont Primary 17 delegates

March 4
(NYT) Democratic Rivals Clash Before Pivotal PrimariesSenators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama battled over national security and trade in a frantic burst of last-minute campaigning on Monday as Mrs. Clinton accused Mr. Obama of deception and new evidence of discord surfaced within her own camp.
March 2
Ohio becomes campaign central for Clinton, Obama
WESTERVILLE, Ohio (Reuters) - Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama waged a tight campaign fight across Ohio on Sunday as a top Democrat voiced concern about a prolonged party battle after Tuesday’s voting.Tuesday was two days off and the candidates were going full speed across Ohio stressing their campaign themes — Clinton stressing her experience against what she describes as her opponent’s vacant rhetoric, while Obama touted his judgment and new outlook versus her commitment to status-quo politics.
March 1
(Bob Herbert, NYT) A Nominee? Or a Debacle?
The danger for the Democrats is a standoff steeped in rancor. The Republicans, assuming Senator Obama will be the nominee, are already having a field day.
Mr. Obama seems at the moment like someone standing alone against the attacks. Since he hasn’t secured the nomination, he doesn’t have the biggest names in the party rallying to his defense. His supporters are busy battling the Clintons. (The same would be the case for Senator Clinton if she were the front-runner but hadn’t wrapped up the nomination.)
A further complication for the Democrats is the possibility that the results in Texas — which has a ridiculously complex primary-caucus setup — will be unclear. If Senator Clinton wins Ohio and there’s a battle royal in Texas (both sides are prepared for a legal fight), the McCain forces will pop the corks on another round of Champagne.
Democratic voters are tremendously excited about this presidential election. In addition to the obvious concerns about war and the economy, voters in both the Clinton and Obama camps believe that some of the fundamental values of the United States are at risk. They are worried, for example, about the undermining of governmental checks and balances, the erosion of civil liberties and the makeup of the Supreme Court.
Tuesday’s elections may decide the nominee. But if they don’t, the wisest heads in the party will be faced with the awesome task of preventing a train wreck that would ruin what was supposed to have been a banner year.
February 26
(NYT) The Politics of Trade in Ohio
Democratic hopefuls threaten to leave NAFTA
(CanWest News Service) WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on Tuesday night both threatened to take the United States out of the North American Free Trade Agreement if elected president, warning Canada and Mexico the deal is dead unless America wins concessions to strengthen labour and environmental standards.
During a nationally televised debate in Cleveland, the two Democratic presidential candidates suggested Canada and Mexico would be given just six months to make compromises on the deal in order to satisfy the U.S. government.
“I will say we will opt out of NAFTA unless we renegotiate,” Clinton said. “I have said we will renegotiate NAFTA (and) you would have to say to Canada and Mexico, ‘That’s what we are going to do.’”
Said Obama: “We should use the hammer of a potential opt-out” to force Canada and Mexico to reopen trade talks.
The heated rhetoric over NAFTA - a signature achievement during Bill Clinton’s administration - came as both Democratic candidates fought for votes in economically troubled Ohio, which has lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the last decade.
The trade deal has become the central point of contention between Clinton and Obama over the past week, with the former first lady accusing her rival of falsely claiming she has been a supporter of the deal.
When confronted about past statements praising the deal, Clinton acknowledged NAFTA has helped boost the economy in other parts of the U.S.
But Clinton maintained that, if she is elected U.S. president, her administration would “immediately have a trade time-out” to write new, enforceable labour and environment standards into the deal.
It was the 20th Democratic presidential debate in the last year and marked the final chance for Clinton to slow Obama’s momentum before Little Super Tuesday primaries March 4 in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.
At times Tuesday night, Clinton was on the defensive. She was booed by the audience at Cleveland State University after chastising the debate’s NBC News moderators for asking her to respond to the first two opening questions before Obama.
Recent polls show Obama is now virtually tied with Clinton in Texas and within 10 points of Clinton in Ohio.
Nationally, a USA Today/Gallup poll released Tuesday showed Obama with 51 per cent support among Democratic voters to 39 per cent for Clinton.
Clinton had frequently outshone Obama in nationally televised debates throughout the campaign season. But she has stumbled in more recent one-on-one forums.
As Clinton’s support tumbles in polls, her aides and supporters have begun launching scathing criticisms this week of the American media.
But Obama was also put on the defensive when NBC anchor Brian Stewart asked his views on the endorsement he received last weekend from Louis Farrakhan, the Nation of Islam leader with a history of making anti-Semitic remarks.
Obama sought earlier Tuesday to reinforce perceptions he’s gaining momentum, announcing an endorsement by former Democratic presidential candidate Chris Dodd. Complete article
February 25
Texas
In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party’s nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton.
But taking into account the poll’s sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie. More on Texas primary & polls
Ohio
Clinton leads Obama 50-46. Obama’s surge appears to be at least partially attributable to the virtual certainly that John McCain will be nominated on the Republican side. That means more independents and Republicans in the state are planning to vote in the Democratic primary. While Obama trails Clinton 56-40 among self identified Democrats, he leads 80-13 with Republicans and 64-33 with independents. More on Ohio primary & polls
February 24
Texas Women Size Up the Democrats
As Texas prepares to deliver a giant and perhaps decisive verdict on March 4 on the two closely matched Democratic presidential contenders, women — who traditionally outnumber men at the polls in this state and around the nation — may well hold the key to victory. And while many women champion Mrs. Clinton’s bid for the White House as the obvious next leap across the gender gap, others say her historic candidacy no longer carries the same urgency as it would have, say, for their mothers’ generation.
February 22
Who Won Tonight’s Debate? The Answer Is Clear
For the first time in quite a while we saw a clear winner emerge from one of the many Democratic presidential debates. That winner? The Democratic Party. Finally after a dark and long winter came a glimmer of light, a possibility that this party could emerge from its bitter primary season united and uplifted. And the person who deserves the most thanks for that glimmer of possibility is Hillary Clinton.
Another Coal-Sponsored Debate Without Questions on Global Warming
Last night’s Democratic debate in Texas was sponsored (once again) by polluting coal interests, whose laughable ads about pie-in-the-sky “clean coal” littered CNN’s debate coverage. Gee, what a surprise then that no questions were asked about global warming in the state that is the number one emitter of CO2 emissions.
February 21
(BBC) Ohio no easy ride for Clinton
(Dallas Morning News/AP) Bill Clinton says Texas, Ohio could be make-or-break for Hillary
Former President Bill Clinton said Wednesday he believes that the fate of his wife’s presidential hopes rest with victories in the Texas and Ohio primaries next month.
“I think it is so fitting that the race for the Democratic nomination is going to be determined by what happens in Texas and Ohio,” said Clinton, finishing a day of Texas campaigning at a Houston rally.
(CSM) Big wins in Wisconsin, Hawaii make it Obama’s race to lose
His large margins of victory in Tuesday’s contests put Clinton on the ropes.
February 19
Washington - Barack Obama’s resounding 17-point victory in the Wisconsin primary has pushed Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign to the brink of extinction. Senator Obama also won the Hawaii caucuses, making him undefeated in the last 10 Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses. Obama’s 76 percent of votes to Clinton’s 24 percent was not surprising in his native state. But though Obama’s victory in Wisconsin was also expected, his unexpectedly large margin of victory there signals serious trouble for Senator Clinton. As with the three “Potomac primaries” last week, Obama achieved that feat by cutting into Clinton’s historic base of support: women and low-income voters.
Wisconsin? Action moves to Texas and Ohio
PARMA, Ohio - Before the polls even opened in Wisconsin on Tuesday, the two Democratic contenders had moved on to campaign in Texas and Ohio, the two next big prizes on the primary calendar.
Democratic contenders move on to next big prizes of primary season.

(TIME) Obama decamped to Texas after Wisconsin, where he plans on spending a few days and where polls show he is much is closer to catching Clinton than he is in Ohio. Texas Democrats have for a generation been the minority party in Texas: Obama begins with strong base among African-American voters in Houston and Dallas; Clinton enjoys a head start among the state’s Hispanic population, which numbers close to 7 million. Obama noted in Houston on Tuesday night that early voting has already begun in the state and he urged a crowd of more than 15,000 to start voting immediately.
He also implored the crowd to make sure to attend the caucuses after voting earlier in the day, a nod to Texas’ uniquely complex contest. It is actually a hybrid system made up of both a primary, where the bulk of the state’s 228 Democratic delegates are decided, and an evening caucus. Further clouding matters is that delegates are not awarded proportionally along congressional district lines, but instead are done based on state senate districts, with areas that had higher turnout in recent presidential and gubernatorial elections getting bonus delegates. That could mean that Obama could snag more delegates than expected by doing well in places like inner-city Houston and liberal Austin, while Clinton’s supposed advantage with Latinos in South Texas might not provide her with as big as a windfall as she might hope.
Texas has not voted for a Democrat in a fall presidential campaign for decades.

Ohio is a battleground state every four years. And, at least on paper, Ohio looks like a state that should work better for Clinton. It is a far more conservative state than Wisconsin, and lacks Wisconsin’s deeply Progressive tradition. Its eight million voters are a stubbornly diverse mix of farmers, factory workers, and white-collar professionals split up among a half dozen large cities, a score of midsize towns and another 50-odd largely rural counties. The Northeast quarter of the state, which includes the old blast furnace towns of Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown, is a Democratic stronghold; the Southeast quarter that hugs the Ohio River is a far less populous slice of Appalachia that owes more to Kentucky than Cleveland. Southwest Ohio, anchored by businesslike Cincinnati, is Republican country, where George W. Bush won huge margins and narrowly captured the state in 2004. That leaves white-collar Columbus and table-flat northwest Ohio, the reliable battlegrounds in both primaries and general elections. Ohio has been hit hard by a series of economic shocks that began in the late 1970s and continue through today, as the state’s once formidable steel, automobile and rubber products sectors have seen plant after plant close down, move overseas and not return.