Wednesday-Night

April 28, 2008
Why Hillary won’t quit
David Jones, Citizen Special
There are all sorts of legends in play about Hillary Clinton’s motivations for continuing her campaign in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.
She is obsessed. She thinks she is “owed” the presidency. She believes that it is her turn, and her opponent is an Obama come lately. She made a deal with Bill to stay with him if he supported her for the presidency. She sincerely believes that now is the time for a woman as president. She is deeply concerned over the fate of the United States (and the world) if the country is led by a man as inexperienced and untutored as Senator Barack Obama.
Or all of the above.
But less attention has been paid to Senator Clinton’s political “biological clock.” She is 60 years old; it is now or never for her in U.S. presidential politics.
The next president is likely to hold office for eight years. Although there have been recent illustrations of a president losing a second term (Jimmy Carter; George H. W. Bush), the historical norm is for presidents to win two terms.
And rarely in the past 50 years has there been a more positive calculus for the Democrats.
The November election provides a to-die-for nexus of opportunity virtually assuring Democrat victory. Democrats will benefit from the end of an unpopular two-term Republican presidency with no obvious Republican successor, an economic downturn for which the incumbent (remember Mr. Carter and Bush 41) is invariably blamed, and the most virulent four-letter word in U.S. politics: Iraq. Victory should be akin to the Giants scoring from the one yard line with the Little Sisters of the Poor playing defense.
And Ms. Clinton (and every Democrat) appreciates this political reality. Oh the Democrat analysts will poormouth their chances (arrogance isn’t polite prior to victory). And everyone knows that overconfidence kills, and defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory - but no Democrat really believes this for 2008. The media want an exciting race and fear being identified as pro-Democrat so they will pump up Republican possibilities.
But if one looks at the money that has been raised, figures that are always changing and subject to manipulation, there is a different perspective. By February Mr. Obama had reportedly raised over $190 million U.S.; Ms. Clinton over $150 million; and Republican Senator John McCain not quite $60 million. The precise figures are less relevant than the overwhelming gap between Democrat and Republican fund raising. Even assuming that Mr. McCain’s funding will rise substantially, the politically involved are overwhelmingly betting on the Democrats.
So whoever wins the Democrat presidential nomination will be president. And be president for eight years. So if it is Mr. Obama, Ms. Clinton would not get another chance until she is 68 - running as a recipient of social security at a point when the historical tide of two-term rotation would favour a Republican.
But if Hillary wins the nomination (and the presidency), Mr. Obama will be only 54 in 2016, at the prime of political life, and easily able to argue that it is now his “turn.”
Contemporary politics is hard on contenders; however, for the few women reaching senior positions, it has been even tougher. Geraldine Ferraro, the Democrat VP nominee in 1984, was a “hail Mary” political manoeuvre. Facing almost certain defeat against the highly popular president Ronald Reagan, the Democrats tried to get maximum mileage from a “first.” The Democrats lost 49 of 50 states, and Ms. Ferraro was never seriously considered for any senior post subsequently.
On the Republican side, few remember that Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for the Republican nomination in 2000; born in 1936, she is the same age as Senator McCain; however, there was no boomlet for her as a Republican candidate in 2008.
It is particularly embittering for Ms. Clinton to see the desertions of groups and individuals for whom they had worked and supported constantly throughout the Clinton presidency. Indeed, nothing more identifies Senator Obama as a “black candidate” than the overwhelming — better than 90 per cent — support that he is receiving from African-American voters. And New Mexico governor Bill Richardson endorsing Mr. Obama must be uniquely galling. Bluntly, Mr. Richardson was “made” by president Bill Clinton who appointed him Energy Secretary and UN ambassador; he now will be listed in the Clinton dictionary as defining the word “ingrate” and epitomizes the Washington adage that a friend is someone who will stab you in the front.
Consequently, it is more than arrogance, entitlement, or hubris that will keep Ms. Clinton in the race until win or lose is definitively determined. Her highest aspiration is not to be “Senator Clinton.”

David Jones OWN, co-author [with David Kilgour] of Uneasy Neighbo(u)rs: Canada, the USA and the Dynamics of State, Industry and Culture, is a former American diplomat who served in Ottawa. He now lives in Arlington, Virginia.