Wednesday-Night

See also Democrats: Phantom and Super Delegates

May 29
Florida and Michigan May See Delegates Halved

May 8
Back to Michigan and Florida
The rules committee plans to meet May 31 to resolve the issues with Michigan and Florida, both of which violated D.N.C. rules in holding their primaries earlier than the party allowed.
The Clinton campaign has argued for months that not seating delegates from those states would disenfranchise voters in those states and put the party at risk for losing them in the fall.
March 20
(TIME) Michigan Hurts Clinton’s Chances
On Thursday, the Michigan state Senate adjourned without taking action on a do-over of that state’s Democratic primary, following the lead of Florida, which ruled out another primary earlier this week. That leaves it up to the party and the candidates to come up with a plan for seating both crucial state’s delegates at the national convention this summer in Denver. But as Clinton and Barack Obama battle it out in the final stretch of the nomination race, there is no obvious solution that is in the interest of both candidates.
March 18
(The Guardian) Florida Democrats reject second primary vote
The Florida Democratic party yesterday gave up its attempt to organise a second primary in the state after receiving thousands of letters from voters rejecting the idea.
The decision, announced in a statement by the state party chairwoman, Karen Thurman, is a blow to Hillary Clinton, who badly needs Florida’s ballot results counted to pull closer to her rival for the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama, in the delegate count.
The Clinton campaign has vowed to fight the decision, which leaves in limbo the fate of roughly 1.7m Democratic votes from January’s controversial primary.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reprimanded Florida for holding its election before February 5, in violation of party rules, and refuses to give the state’s 210 delegates a say at the nominating convention.
March 12
(The Swamp) Florida lawmakers balk at new ‘mail-in’ primary
by Mark Silva and John McCormick
The idea of a new, “mail-in” primary election for Florida, denied its seats for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer for holding an early primary contrary to party rules, isn’t sitting too well with the Florida delegation to the House.
Florida’s congressional delegation announced Tuesday that it opposes holding a Democratic presidential vote by mail, and Sen. Barack Obama has expressed concerns about the fairness of that option.
Democratic leaders in Florida and Michigan have been considering a mail-in election to allocate delegates to the convention, since the Democratic National Committee has refused to recognize the delegates alloted from the Jan. 15 Michigan and Jan. 29 Florida primaries.

(NYT) McCain Defeats Romney in Florida Vote
CNN With 97 percent of Republican precincts reporting, McCain held a 36-31 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Giuliani had 15 percent of the vote, followed closely by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who held 14 percent.
(Bloomberg) Clinton Wins Florida Primary; No Delegates Awarded
Giuliani Said to Be in Talks on McCain Endorsement
By MICHAEL COOPER and MEGAN THEE
Senator John McCain won the biggest delegate prize so far in a closely contested primary. After finishing third, Rudolph W. Giuliani is likely to endorse Mr. McCain, officials said.
(NYT) For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall
As Rudolph W. Giuliani ponders his political mortality, many observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign.
He allowed a tight coterie of New York aides, none with national political experience, to run much of his campaign.
He accumulated a fat war chest — he had $16.6 million on hand at the end of September, more than Mitt Romney ($9.5 million) or Senator John McCain ($3.2 million) — but spent vast sums on direct mail instead of building strong organizations on the ground in South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Indeed, his fourth-place finish in New Hampshire, a state where he was once considered competitive, provided an early indication of his vulnerability. … Perhaps a simpler dynamic was at work: The more that Republican voters saw of him, the less they wanted to vote for him.
(The Guardian) Giuliani’s disastrous strategy
… there were two serious miscalculations: the flawed campaign strategy - and the fact that, despite his 9/11 credentials, Republicans found his socially liberal views hard to take. On the issues that mattered to the Republican right - gun laws, gays and abortion - Giuliani simply was not their man. On top of that, Giuliani failed the happy-family test. He has been married three times, and has a troubled relationship with his children.

Overview
Democrats
It is a murky race because the major candidates have signed pledges not to campaign as a punishment to the state for scheduling its primary so early. [The Democratic National Committee stripped the state of all 210 delegates to the party’s nominating convention in August, although the candidates are on the ballot for this Tuesday’s voting more]. But over the weekend, pundits in the state began talking of it as an opportunity for Mrs. Clinton. She has had a huge lead in Florida polls, two to one over her rivals in mid-December, and could benefit even from a beauty contest vote. Only Democrats can vote in this primary.
Clinton: Give States Their Delegates
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton said just four days before Florida’s primary that she wants the convention delegates from Florida and Michigan reinstated. The national party eliminated all the delegates from those states — more than 350 in all — because they broke party rules against holding their primaries before Feb. 5. All the major Democratic candidates also made pledges not to campaign in those states before their primaries. Many Democratic insiders believe the eventual nominee — whoever it is — will work to reinstate the delegates at the convention to promote party unity going into the general election, despite two overwhelming votes by the party’s rules panel to strip them.
Republicans
Mr. Giuliani … was talking about Florida, the key to his skip-the-early-contests strategy. He had been leading the polls here before Iowa, trailed closely by Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney. Since Iowa, Florida’s Republican leaders have been pushing the notion that the state could be the Republican kingmaker, based on the idea that Mr. Huckabee’s strength in South Carolina [OOPS!] could leave no clear front-runner in the week leading up to the Jan. 29 voting. Only Republicans can vote in this primary.
January 29
FACTBOX: Floridians to vote in Republican primary
Florida is the largest and most diverse state to vote so far in the 2008 presidential contest, with a population of 18 million, 20 percent of which is Hispanic and 16 percent black.
Along with California, Florida was hit hardest by the U.S. housing market slump. Its market is suffering from the biggest condominium glut in decades and Florida leads the nation in mortgage fraud. More
The final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll released just hours before Florida polls open shows John McCain has increased his lead [over] Mitt Romney 35 to 31 percent. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is battling former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for a distant third place finish in Florida, with both registering 13 percent.
John McCain and Mitt Romney brought a bitter grudge match in the Sunshine State to a close Tuesday as Florida voters went to the polls in a crucial primary in the ever-combustible Republican presidential race. … polls showed them locked in a too-close-to-call fight to the finish. The results could give the winner crucial momentum going into the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. More
Why Florida has become a sideshow for the Democrats
The Florida Democratic primary has been relegated to a “beauty contest” because the Democratic party stripped the state of its delegates. Thus, Florida Democrats may have little impact on who eventually becomes the Democratic nominee. BUT If the Democratic race remains close and no one has a majority going into the convention in August, we could see a showdown over seating the Florida delegates — and the Michigan delegates, too. Michigan also held an unofficial primary that Hillary Clinton won without a campaign on January 15.
Suppose Clinton needs the Florida and Michigan delegates seated to put her over the top. The Obama delegates will insist that the party enforce its rules and exclude them. Until Obama gets the nomination. Then all Democrats will be welcome to join in the celebration.
January 27
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani trail both McCain and Romney in Florida, according to the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Florida tracking poll released today. Huckabee drew 14 percent and Giuliani 13 percent, making them statistically even. [Reported by Bloomberg]
January 27
Surge in Early Balloting Shifts Florida Races
BOCA RATON, Fla. — A surge of early voting by Florida Democrats and Republicans has startled officials here and injected additional complexity into the state’s presidential primaries on Tuesday.
By Friday night, nearly 350,000 Democrats had cast early votes, either in person or by mail, and party officials predicted that about 400,000 will have voted by Election Day. By contrast, just 97,000 Democrats voted early in the 2004 presidential primary, which was not as intensely contested. There are 4.14 million Democrats registered to vote in Florida.The level of interest, if it is matched by turnout at the polls on Tuesday, could make the results in Florida more important for Democrats than they had assumed, given both the absence of candidates here and the fact that no delegates are at stake.
At Florida Polls, Touch Screens and Crossed Fingers
MIAMI — There will be no “hanging chads” this time around in Florida. The punch-card voting that plagued the 2000 presidential election in the state is long gone.
But with Florida’s primary on Tuesday, some in the state are bracing for more potential ballot trouble because the new electronic touch-screen machines in much of the state have aroused doubts of their own.
Florida legislators voted essentially to ban them earlier this year but the next set of machines will not be ready until the general election in November, forcing election officials to press the controversial machines back into use one more time.
McCain, Romney Spar Over Iraq, Economy Before Florida Primary
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney, in a close fight in Florida’s primary election campaign, continued to trade accusations about their positions on the Iraq war and the U.S. economy today.
Florida Gov. Crist Endorses McCain
Even as the political class was digesting the news of Sen. Barack Obama’s overwhelming victory in South Carolina’s Democratic primary, Sen. John McCain scored the endorsement of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) — a major development in advance of the Sunshine State’s Tuesday primary.
January 25
(The Guardian) Giuliani could take a tumble in Florida primary
Rudy Giuliani, once the presumptive Republican nominee, today was heading for a freefall in Florida only days ahead of the state primary against strong challenges from John McCain and Mitt Romney.
An aggressive campaign attack from McCain and mega-spending from Romney today relegated Giuliani to third place in the polls in Florida even though he has spent 52 days campaigning in the state and paid out $3 million (£1.5 million) on advertising.
January 24
Romney, McCain Take Lead in Fla.; Tax Talk Pervades
By Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz
NAPLES, Fla., Jan. 23 — After months of debate over illegal immigration, social issues and the Iraq war, the economy and taxes have emerged as the central focus of the Republican race in Florida.
Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has staked his entire candidacy on winning here, has shifted his focus from terrorism to taxes in a late effort to halt his slide in the polls. He told several hundred people on the Gulf Coast on Wednesday that his plan to reduce corporate and individual taxes would reinvigorate private investment and spending.
“Right now, we’re focused on the question of the economy and turning around an economy,” Giuliani told reporters later. “I’m the only candidate who has ever turned around a government economy.”
With former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) quitting Tuesday and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee largely shifting his focus elsewhere, Giuliani is now pitted against the men who have been his main rivals from the beginning: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain.
A new poll for the St. Petersburg Times shows McCain and Romney leading the contest in Florida, with Giuliani and Huckabee fading.
Mitt Romney courts neutral Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush has been out of the Florida governor’s office for more than a year, but you’d hardly know it from the high profile he still cuts in state Republican politics. And no one has attempted to tap into the deep reservoir of goodwill and admiration that still exists for him like Mitt Romney.
January 22
A Scramble Across Florida as Republicans Square Off
By ELISABETH BUMILLER
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The Republican presidential candidates began grappling with the complicated electoral landscape of Florida on Monday as they made appeals in Spanish and English and sped from Little Havana in Miami to the racetrack in Daytona Beach.There was also one major development that jolted the field, just eight days before the state’s primary: Two new polls suggested that Rudolph W. Giuliani might be losing his edge in his home turf, New York, to Senator John McCain.
January 17, 2008
(NYT) Even at Home, Backers Worry About Giuliani
By SAM ROBERTS
For months, the Republican establishment in New York and New Jersey marched nearly in lock step behind Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former hometown mayor they were confident would become their party’s nominee for president.
But as Mr. Giuliani has plummeted from first to fourth — or worse — in some national polls, as he finished near the bottom of the pack in the nation’s earliest primaries, and as his lead evaporated even in Florida, the state on which he has gambled the most time and money, those Republican leaders are verging toward a grim new consensus:
If Mr. Giuliani loses in the Florida primary on Jan. 29, they say, he may even have trouble defeating the rivals who are encroaching on his own backyard … supporters say they are confident that if Mr. Giuliani carries Florida or runs a very close second, he will remain the odds-on favorite to claim virtually all of the delegates from the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut primaries on Feb. 5, when Republicans in 22 states vote.
But if Mr. Giuliani is relegated to a distant second or worse in Florida, even some of his supporters acknowledge that New York’s primary one week later would most likely be up for grabs, with Senator John McCain of Arizona and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts being Mr. Giuliani’s strongest rivals. Like Mr. Giuliani, both are fielding full delegate slates in all 29 of the state’s Congressional districts.

Seeking an Edge, Florida Changed Its Primary

MIAMI, May 3, 2007 — Casting more uncertainty over the presidential nominating process for 2008, the Legislature on Thursday moved the state’s primary up to Jan. 29, ignoring the threat of sanctions from the national Republican and Democratic parties. The new date puts the Florida primary ahead of contests in all but four states. Political leaders here hope it will give Florida, the most populous swing state, a bigger role in choosing presidential nominees. But officials in other states said Florida’s move would only create more chaos around the nominating process, which has already been upended by other states’ decisions to hold earlier primaries. New Hampshire may move up its primary as a result — possibly even to this year — and in South Carolina, Republican officials said they, too, would advance the date of their primary.