Wednesday-Night » Diana Thébaud Nicholson

Pakistan post 2008 elections - Updates

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:28:21 +0000

July 24
Plan Would Use Antiterror Aid on Pakistani Jets
The Bush administration plans to shift nearly $230 million in aid to Pakistan from counterterrorism programs to upgrading that country’s aging F-16 attack planes, which Pakistan prizes more for their contribution to its military rivalry with India than for fighting insurgents along its Afghan border.
July 16
Aid to Pakistan in Tribal Areas Raises Concerns
(NYT) GHALANAI, Pakistan — The United States plans to pour $750 million of aid into Pakistan’s tribal areas over the next five years as part of a “hearts and minds” campaign to win over this lawless region from Qaeda and Taliban militants.
But even before the plan has been fully carried out, documents and officials involved in the planning are warning of the dangers of distributing so much money in an area so hostile that oversight is impossible, even by Pakistan’s own government, which faces rising threats from Islamic militants.
July 13
It Takes a School, Not Missiles
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, New York Times
[Greg] Mortenson has become a legend in the region …. His superb book about his schools, “Three Cups of Tea,” … has spent the last 74 weeks on the paperback best-seller list, regularly in the No. 1 spot.
Now his aid group, the Central Asia Institute, has 74 schools in operation. His focus is educating girls.
To get a school, villagers must provide the land and the labor to assure a local “buy-in,” and so far the Taliban have not bothered his schools. One anti-American mob rampaged through Baharak, Afghanistan, attacking aid groups — but stopped at the school that local people had just built with Mr. Mortenson. “This is our school,” the mob leaders decided, and they left it intact.
Mr. Mortenson has had setbacks, including being kidnapped for eight days in Pakistan’s wild Waziristan region. It would be naïve to think that a few dozen schools will turn the tide in Afghanistan or Pakistan.
Still, he notes that the Taliban recruits the poor and illiterate, and he also argues that when women are educated they are more likely to restrain their sons. Five of his teachers are former Taliban, and he says it was their mothers who persuaded them to leave the Taliban; that is one reason he is passionate about educating girls.
June 30
Amid U.S. Policy Disputes, Qaeda Grows in Pakistan
The story of how Al Qaeda, whose name is Arabic for “the base,” has gained a new haven is in part a story of American accommodation to President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, whose advisers played down the terrorist threat. It is also a story of how the White House shifted its sights, beginning in 2002, from counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan to preparations for the war in Iraq.
June 15
Pressure mounts on Musharraf to resign
(IHT) ISLAMABAD: The pressure on President Pervez Musharraf to resign escalated after a senior leader in the civilian government suggested to a large outdoor rally here that Musharraf should be hanged.
Karzai Threatens to Send Forces Into Pakistan
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Afghan President Hamid Karzai threatened Sunday to send Afghan troops across the border to fight militants in Pakistan, a forceful warning to insurgents and the Pakistani government that his country is fed up with cross-border attacks.
Karzai said Afghanistan has the right to self defense, and because militants cross over from Pakistan ”to come and kill Afghan and kill coalition troops, it exactly gives us the right to do the same.”
Why Pakistan Plays ‘Let’s Make a Deal’
Foreign Policy May 2008
Islamabad is about to cut another deal with the country’s tribal leaders. These agreements rarely last long and appear to have helped no one besides terrorists and hardened militants. But Washington should support the deal making—at least for a little longer.
The Pakistanis are making deals with tribal leaders again. Islamabad now appears to be in the final stages of protracted negotiations with leaders of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan, one of seven semiautonomous areas along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. The recent history of these negotiations has not been a happy one. By nearly all accounts, Taliban and al Qaeda have taken full advantage of the breathing space in Pakistan’s tribal areas to execute attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and beyond. American critics have every reason to ask whether Islamabad’s latest deal is precisely the sort of appeasement that might reduce violence in Pakistan in the short term, but which in time promises an even more dangerous insurgency and terrorist menace.
So, should the Bush administration move fast to put an end to Pakistan’s constant deal making with militants? No. Because despite appearances, Islamabad is not stabbing Washington in the back, acting irrationally, or being willfully ignorant to the threat posed by militants. Although Washington has reason to be wary of any truce blessed by Pakistani politicians and Islamist militants, there are valid reasons why Washington should support the deal making—at least for now.

Russia and the Arctic

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:41:59 +0000

July 23
Arctic has 90bn barrels of crude
(FT) The Arctic holds as much as 90bn barrels of undiscovered oil and has as much undiscovered gas as all the reserves known to exist in Russia, US government scientists have said in the first governmental assessment of the region’s resources.
The report is likely to add impetus to the race among polar nations, such as Russia, the US, Denmark, Norway and Canada, for control of the region.
March 8, 2008
Last Dash North
Russia and the Arctic: The New Great Game
Dr Mark A Smith & Keir Giles

Key Points
*
The belief that the North Pole region could contain large
quantities of oil and gas is one of the major forces driving
Russian policy. The North Pole expedition of July-August 2007 is
laying the ground for submitting a claim to the UN Commission
on the Limits of the Continental Shelf that the Lomonosov Ridge
belongs to Russia.
*
Russia’s claims will be challenged by Canada, the USA and
Denmark. The Arctic region is likely to become a region of
geopolitical competition later in the 21st
century as the ice cap melts.
*
There is a widespread view in Russia that its claim to
Arctic territory is not speculative, but rightful compensation for
territorial losses in Europe.
*
Any foreign interest in the area, government, commercial
or environmental, is seen as hostile intent.
*
Armed action by NATO to contest Russia’s Arctic claims is
discussed as a serious possibility.
*
Reports of the death of the Russian North are greatly
exaggerated, as they take no account of commercial rebirth
based on the oil industry.
*
Russia has a well-developed commercial and transport
infrastructure to take advantage of opportunities offered by the
retreating icecap, in contrast to other littoral states.
*
Naval re-armament and increased military activity mean
the same applies to capacity for military action.

Who possesses the Arctic, possesses the entire world.

At a meeting of the State Council in Murmansk in May 2007, Vladimir Putin proposed setting up a National Arctic Council to coordinate national policy and strengthen Russia’s interests in the Arctic region.
In August 2007 the Regional Development Minister Vladimir Yakovlev issued instructions for the creation of an interdepartmental working group to deal with the development of the Arctic zone.
These moves are indicative of a serious and growing Russian interest in the Arctic.
Vladimir Putin has described the north as Russia’s strategic reserve in the development of its statehood.
Russia’s northern regions are an important source of natural resources. In June 2007, the commander of the Northern Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Vysotskiy, noted that Russia obtained 90 per cent of her gas, 60 per cent of her oil, more than 90 per cent of her nickel and cobalt, about 60 per cent of her copper and 98 per cent of her platinum metals from her Arctic regions.
8 per cent of the population live in the Russian North, and they produce about 20 per cent of the national income and account for two-thirds of hard currency earnings.
Russian interest in the Arctic became more pronounced in 2007, with the statement
by Russian geologists in June 2007 that the Lomonosov ridge, an underwater shelf in the Arctic Ocean, was linked to the Russian Federation. On 21 June, Duma deputy speaker Artur Chilingarov said that Russia intended to stand up for its lawful rights to the Arctic Ocean shelf.
In July 2007, as part of the Arctic-2007 expedition, a mini-submarine containing two Duma deputies, Artur Chilingarov and Vladimir Gruzdev travelled to the North Pole and placed a titanium Russian flag directly on the pole. Three years earlier, FSB Director Nikolay Patrushev had flown to the North Pole and placed the Russian flag there. The Arctic-2007 expedition’s aim was to make a symbolic claim to the pole and large portions of Arctic territory for Russia. Chilingarov said that “the Arctic is Russian… We must prove the North Pole is an extension of the Russian
coastal shelf.”
On 7 August, he was even more emphatic, stating: “I do not care about what all those foreign public figures are saying about this matter. The Arctic region has always been Russian, since it has been the north, and it will be Russian today. This is Russia, this is the Arctic region, we are together.”
If Russian claims are ever realised, then Russia would control about 460,000 square miles, an area about the size of western Europe, which would be about half of the Arctic seabed. The United States Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 estimated that 25 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas reserves could lie under the Arctic Ocean.

Wednesday Night #1377

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:15:58 +0000

We have the great joy of the presence of our son Marc and his brilliant wife Jean from Singapore. Sadly, this is the last week of their summer holiday in Québec. We hope that you will be with us to enjoy their company and observations - no doubt a tour de force that will lead us down many paths including advertising, media and the Internet. A propos, there are major changes in NYT business coverage that would indicate that management is not quite as gray as has been said.
We are just emerging from 4 days of bucolism (well, why not?) and gracious hospitality of family and friends in Charlevoix, which is still the most beautiful part of Québec in our unprejudiced eyes, despite the benefits (or not) of the largesse of its current MLA in terms of infrastructure construction. We were reminded of the days when Church parking lots were paved immediately before elections to encourage congregations to vote the right way.
We neither saw, heard, nor read a single news item until we were on our way home and thus were spared evolving events in favour of at least two developments of consequence — the opening of the ‘crisis talks’ in Zimbabwe (we remain highly skeptical) and the capture of Radovan Karadzic, who (surprise) had been living all along under the noses of the authorities. The world economy appears to be no further recovered than when we left; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still hot items. The U.S. campaign potshots continue, but with evidence of moderation and some surprise (which we do not share) that Senator Obama is conducting himself intelligently in Iraq.
Beijing’s final preparations for the Olympics continue to be critically scrutinized - Bunker mentality as Beijing readies for Games - by all and sundry (just wait til it is Vancouver’s turn) amidst last-minute controversy over EPO tests. Putin, Bush and Sarkozy are heading to the Beijing Olympics, while Stephen Harper, Angela Merkel and Gordon Brown will stay away, what, if anything, does this tell us about the Harper/Bush relationship???
Locally, we note that Mr. Harper has not yet called the Westmount by-election and presume that it is because it is somewhat useless to campaign when almost everyone is away for the summer holidays, or planning for them. We are encouraged by the CanWest story about Christie Digital that bears out The Princess’ thesis that Wednesday Nighters tend to underplay the inventiveness and contribution of Canada’s small business sector (Comment #2)
Finally, we were absolutely delighted to learn last week of Louise Roy’s appointment as Chancellor of l’Université de Montréal.

Links to some possible topics

TRADE ministers, hoping to make a breakthrough in the interminable Doha round of global trade talks, will gather at the World Trade Organisation’s headquarters beside Lake Geneva, on Monday July 21st. Their aim is to agree on a plan for liberalising trade in farm products and industrial goods, and to look for signs of compromise on services.
As Loan Giants Are Inspected, Bush Prods Congress
Bank examiners from the Federal Reserve and the Comptroller of the Currency are inspecting the books of the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as the Bush administration prods Congress to approve a plan that would enable it to inject billions of dollars into the companies.
Peace talks in Zimbabwe
… whether the opening of negotiations was a staged showing of cooperation under international pressure, a sign of the opposition’s weakness or a real path toward peace remained unclear. The opposition said it got much of what it demanded before engaging in substantive talks: a commitment to end political violence and the participation of international bodies in the mediation process. But given Mr. Mugabe’s unbridled exercise of power during the election season, he enters the negotiations with the overwhelming upper hand, analysts said. Few expected him to yield any significant ground now.
Radovan Karadzic captured after 13 years
Captured war crimes suspect was living in Serbia’s capital Belgrade and practising alternative medicine, Serb officials say. Background from BBC and Wednesday-night.com
When Barack Obama accepts his party’s nomination for the U.S. presidency at the Democratic convention in Denver next month, his image will be displayed on giant screens at Mile High Stadium by digital projectors made in Kitchener, Ont. Christie Digital’s projectors - highly engineered cubes of optical technology that sell from $20,000 to $100,000 apiece - also have been used at the Academy Awards, and are exported from Canada to cinema chains around the world as movie theatres discard their traditional projectors in favour of new digital equipment.

Beijing Olympics: City bans half its cars and Investigation questions EPO tests
The [New York]Times is about to dramatically expand its business coverage online, gradually introducing a slew of pages on subjects including the economy, energy, small business, personal finance and enterprise technology, according to Vivian Schiller, senior VP-general manager of NYTimes.com. Built on the model of DealBook, Andrew Ross Sorkin’s popular blog for the business section, each one will include original reporting and commentary from a dedicated staffer, news aggregated from elsewhere, relevant tools, e-mail newsletters, mobile applications and more. More

U.S. Presidential Campaign: Europe prefers Obama

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:14:53 +0000

July 23
Foreign Press: All Obama, All the Time (Politico)
Barack Obama’s face adorns newspaper and magazine covers worldwide, as reporters flock to foreign capitals for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee’s five-country tour following stops in Afghanistan and Iraq. “It seems that there are no other news stories in Germany than the Obama visit,” said Cordula Meyer, a Washington-based senior correspondent at Der Speigel.

As we have said elsewhere, we differ with David Jones, in that we believe that what the foreign-based media has to say about the presidential race is relevant. Now we have another dimension, Americans reporting on what Europeans think about the candidates. Kimon Valaskakis pointed out recently, there are those who believe that the United States is so important on the world scene that perhaps the rest of the world should have a say in whom we elect. Or, as Frederick Kempe says below, “Europeans grouse that they can’t vote in U.S. elections, but must live with the consequences.” That is certainly true especially with tricky issues like Afghanistan, NATO, resurgent Russia, energy, climate change, Iran and, most recently, potential fallout from the face-off between Serbia and Kosovo. Accordingly, we offer the following fodder for the debate.

Clinton, McCain, Obama Dominate Europe’s Halls: Frederick Kempe
Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama were all that Europeans wanted to talk about in the hallways and at the dinners of the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy over the weekend.
On the sidelines of podium speeches about the need to contain Iran, stabilize Afghanistan and manage Russia, the buzz was mostly about the three leading U.S. presidential candidates. Europeans grouse that they can’t vote in U.S. elections, but must live with the consequences.
The surprise in my unscientific survey of these defense- policy wonks, from cabinet ministers to professors, is that Obama is their runaway favorite. This is the case even though Obama, unlike McCain and Clinton, has never spoken here, and few here know what his foreign policies might be.
Perhaps that’s the point: Europeans want U.S. change even more than most Americans — and his candidacy offers more of it.
Most Europeans tend to favor Democrats, but never has their dislike for Republicans been as great as it is for George W. Bush. Reasons include his early dismissal of their climate- change concerns (since altered), his disregard for multilateral diplomacy on Iraq and other issues (since revised), and his Texas drawl and swagger (well, you can’t change everything).
Yet Bush served as a useful distraction from Europe’s own foreign-policy failings. They will come more into focus in 2009 and may make short a honeymoon with any new U.S. leader.
Europe’s Shortcomings
In the seven years of the Bush presidency, Europeans have grown little better at reaching unified foreign-policy positions. They continue to spend too little to defend themselves or project security elsewhere, and they haven’t addressed their most serious challenges, from Islamist extremism to Russia’s muscular and assertive energy policy.
Thus Senator Joe Lieberman, who led the U.S. delegation in Munich, felt compelled after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s keynote speech to emphasize that all the presidential candidates would press Europeans to do more fighting and dying in Afghanistan or risk NATO’s decay. That followed carping by German members of parliament displeased with Gates for a leaked letter pleading with allies to do more in the restive Afghan south.
What bubbles underneath such mutual recriminations is an emerging hope that the next U.S. president might start a new conversation about how to renew and reshape Atlanticism through inspirational American leadership.
That’s what lies behind the Obama preference. European policy insiders are uneasy about McCain, a conference regular who is blunt about Europe’s need to improve its game. They also are cool about Clinton, though her husband was a huge hit in Europe.
Devil They Know
McCain at the last moment canceled his participation in the conference last weekend for the first time in years. Yet Europeans who know him best kibitzed about McCain’s resurrection from near-dead candidate to near-certain nominee, and what it would mean to have someone in the White House who knows them perhaps too well.
No one has talked tougher in Munich about standing up to a resurgent Russia. On Iran, McCain has told the conference that the only thing more dangerous than military action against that country would be living with its nuclear-weapons capability.
“He would continue this confrontational attitude of America toward the world, and he would get us in fights with the Russians that would be counterproductive,” says Admiral Ulrich Weisser, the former chief of planning in the German Defense Ministry. “Obama represents the change and leadership we need.”
Wins at Dinner
The Munich Abendzeitung newspaper ran the following headline over a report on a dinner thrown in Munich by lawyer Wolfgang Seybold for local elites and American members of Congress and military leaders: “Obama Leads at VIP Dinner.”
Some Europeans are warming to McCain as they learn about the policies that have made him persona non grata with the Republican far right: his opposition to torturing war detainees, his concerns about climate change, his unwillingness to make issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion central to his campaign.
That said, he will challenge Europeans to reconsider ingrained views on Iraq. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who replaced McCain as the ranking Republican on the trip, said, “If the troop surge in Iraq had failed, McCain would be dead as a candidate.” He tells Europeans that McCain’s candidacy will shift the election’s security debate, pitching a man who stood on principle for an unpopular Iraq policy against Democrats whose policies may be judged as politically expedient.
Great Theater
Whoever wins, what no one debates is that Europeans and their media have never paid this much attention to American primary elections. That’s driven by Bush fatigue, expectations for warmer U.S.-European relations and the gripping theater of the race.
Think of it as the ultimate American reality show with a drama dripping with global consequences.
(Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Zimbabwe II

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:05:27 +0000

Previous events in the sorry saga

July 23
How seriously, or not, to take talks between Zimbabwe’s rival claimants to the presidency
(The Economist) … Nor will talks be easy given the ongoing repression in Zimbabwe. In the past few months alone over 120 opposition activists have been killed and thousands arrested. The opposition says that 200,000 people have fled the violence. The lead negotiator for Mr Tsvangirai’s side, Tendai Biti, is facing treason charges and is out on bail. Mr Tsvangirai has been denied a new passport, so cannot travel. Mr Mutambara is also on bail—arrested and charged for daring to write an editorial that was critical of Mr Mugabe.
July 12
2 Vetoes Quash U.N. Sanctions on Zimbabwe
UNITED NATIONS — An American-led effort to impose sanctions against Zimbabwe failed in the Security Council on Friday, with Russia and China exercising a rare double veto to quash a resolution that they said represented excessive interference in the country’s domestic matters.
The United States, having earlier in the week mustered the nine votes needed to pass the sanctions, stalled on bringing the resolution to a vote until it became absolutely clear that Russia was determined to stop it. Once the Russians announced on Friday that they would exercise their veto, the Chinese, often leery of taking a lone stand on delicate human rights issues, followed suit.
July 10
Global net closes on Mugabe’s gang
By Daniel Howden
The net was tightening last night around the leading figures in the Mugabe regime as the United Nations identified the key individuals it blames for the current crisis in Zimbabwe.
A draft UN resolution named Robert Mugabe and 13 of his henchmen as the main culprits behind the campaign of violence in which scores of opposition supporters have been raped and murdered, and hopes of democratic salvation for the southern African nation have been wrecked.
July 9
UN Security Council nations move toward sanctions against Zimbabwe
Though a veto by China or Russia has not been ruled out, an effort to impose sanctions on Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe’s regime has found the support of the majority of nations on the UN Security Council. Financial Times (7/9) , The Guardian (London) (7/9)
July 8
Bush Pushes Hard Line on Zimbabwe at G-8
The leaders of seven African countries and eight industrialized nations emerged divided after three hours of closed-door meetings dominated by the crisis in Zimbabwe. President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, suggested that a power-sharing agreement was the answer.
Addressing Mr. Bush, he said: “We understand your concerns, but I want to assure you that the concerns you have expressed are indeed the concerns of many of us on the African continent. The only area that we may differ on is the way forward.”
July 7
Zimbabwe sanctions could lead to civil war, Mbeki warns [G8] leaders
· Bush losing patience with South African diplomacy
· Opposition activist’s body found tortured and burnt
South African peace plan for Zimbabwe welcomed by MDC
The proposals suggest Thabo Mbeki has recognised Morgan Tsvangirai’s claim to government
South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, has presented a plan to Zimbabwe’s political leaders that would allow Robert Mugabe to remain as a titular head of state but surrender real power to the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, who would serve as prime minister until a new constitution was negotiated and fresh elections held.
July 5
UK is sending 11,000 Mugabe refugees back
Zimbabweans who fled regime are being sent Home Office letters telling them to return
(RCI) A British film crew has evidence of voter intimidation during the presidential runoff election last month in Zimbabwe. Guardian Films shows footage taken secretly by a Zimbabwe prison officer.
Zimbabwe ‘vote fraud proof’ emerges
(Al Jazeera) The footage had reportedly been smuggled out of the country by Shepherd Yuda, an officer at a prison in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital.
The video shot inside the jail shows Yuda and his colleagues being forced to vote for Robert Mugabe.
Mbeki holds Harare crisis talks
South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki has held talks in Harare with Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and members of a breakaway opposition faction.
July 1
Despite disagreements, AU endorses negotiations for Zimbabwe
Though African leaders failed to disguise their differences of opinion about the failed election that retained President Robert Mugabe in office in Zimbabwe, African Union leaders did endorse the creation of a unity government — or at least negotiations — between Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Botswana called on the AU and Southern African Development Community to ostracize Mugabe, whereas others were sympathetic to Mugabe’s claim that Western forces interfered. Financial Times (7/2)
June 30
Robert Mugabe was hailed a “hero” by Africa’s longest-serving head of state as he joined his fellow leaders at an African Union summit.
“He was elected, he took an oath, and he is here with us, so he is President and we cannot ask him more,” said Omar Bongo, President of Gabon since 1967.
Leading article: Africans must deny Mugabe his moment of glory in Egypt
This is indeed Africa’s moment, for good or ill. If the summit allows the bloodstained charade of Mugabe’s election to pass unnoticed, hopes for the continent’s democratic development will have been radically set back. Similarly, if the summit denies Mugabe the fig leaf of legitimacy that he craves, his regime will be embarrassed and forced on the defensive.
The world voices its revulsion as Mugabe is sworn in as president
Robert Mugabe was sworn in for a sixth term as President of Zimbabwe yesterday ahead of his departure to an African Union summit.
Mugabe’s thugs attack white farmers
White farmers protesting over their land being seized were attacked by Robert Mugabe’s supporters the same day he was sworn in as Zimbabwe’s president.
Mugabe’s nemesis threatens chaos
Opposition leader drafting plans to make Zimbabwe ‘ungovernable’ after discredited one-man election
Inside Mugabe’s world
(BBC) South African writer Heidi Holland is one of the last non-Zimbabwean journalists to have interviewed Robert Mugabe. She spent two hours with him last December after pursuing the Zimbabwean president for months. See also Comment #1 below.
June 29
Mugabe sworn in amidst world criticism
June 28
Zimbabwe election results delay
President Robert Mugabe was said to have won by a wide margin, after the opposition boycotted the vote amid claims of violence and intimidation.
But international observers have reported many spoilt ballots, which in some areas could outnumber votes cast.
June 27
Mugabe plays the God card
The strongman has conscripted an old ally, his country’s spiritualism, in the battle for the presidency
‘Sham’ election proceeds in Zimbabwe
An election monitor with the South African Development Community, one of the few organizations allowed to observe the presidential runoff in Zimbabwe that features only Robert Mugabe, says the election is worse than that of war-torn Angola in 1992. Mugabe has ignored all calls to postpone the election, despite threats of censure and sanction from the EU, U.S., UN and G8. In absentia, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai asked his followers not to vote unless their lives were in peril. Membership cards in Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party commanded high prices on the black market, as buyers believe that registration will serve as protection against police violence. BBC (6/27)
June 26
What international bodies can, and cannot, do about Zimbabwe
Mugabe rejects poll delay calls
Mr Mugabe said his party Zanu-PF would continue to rule the country as they believed it should be ruled.
Mandela has harsh words for Mugabe
Though he has rarely spoken publicly about politics in recent times, former South African President Nelson Mandela criticized Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe in strong terms, blaming him for the outbreak of government-supported violence in Zimbabwe. Another South African leader, Desmond Tutu, had even sterner words for Mugabe, calling him a monster. Los Angeles Times (free registration)
Zimbabweans Make Plea for Help as Runoff Nears
June 25
Queen Strips Mugabe of Knighthood
Queen Elizabeth II has stripped Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s strongman president for nearly 30 years, of his honorary knighthood as a “mark of revulsion” at the human rights abuses and “abject disregard” for democracy over which he has presided, the British Foreign Office announced Wednesday. … he was granted an honorary knighthood during an official visit to England in 1994 when, the foreign office contends, “the conditions in Zimbabwe were very different.”
Tsvangirai calls for ‘peacekeepers’ to end Zimabwe crisis
HARARE (AFP) — Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai called Wednesday for “armed peacekeepers” to be sent to his country amid mounting international condemnation of President Robert Mugabe over the crisis.
He called on the African Union and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) “to lead… to start what I would call a transitional setup” that “would allow the country to heal.”
June 24
Has Tsvangirai made a fatal mistake? Reuters Africa Blog - many of the comments are thoughtful and well worth reading
Tsvangirai praises UN statement
A statement issued last night by the 15-nation UN Security Council and read by U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad declared that Robert Mugabe’s regime had delegitimized the election through violence, suppression, and campaign restrictions. Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai praised the UN position from the Dutch Embassy, where Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade said that Tsvangirai fled, apparently with the understanding that soldiers were coming for him. The candidate, who said that his withdrawal from the election angered the ruling party, has also said that his asylum at the Dutch Embassy is temporary. The Times (London) (6/24) , Los Angeles Times (free registration) (6/24)
June 23
Security Council Urges Zimbabwe to Halt Violence
UK names clique of six men behind ‘campaign of terror’
(The Guardian) Zanu-PF rose to the top after Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980 by being more centralised, conspiratorial and ruthless than all its rivals. After the shock of defeat in March, the party simply went back to doing what it knows best.
By all accounts, the leadership of the Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front, which still calls itself a politburo, was taken by surprise by the loss of the parliamentary election and the first round of the presidential vote.
Zimbabwe’s Tsvangirai takes refuge in embassy
(Reuters) Concern mounted both within and outside Africa over Zimbabwe’s political and economic crisis, which has flooded neighboring states with millions of refugees. Both the African Union and Southern African Development Community (SADC) were discussing the situation following Tsvangirai’s pullout.
… Renaissance Capital investment bank said Zimbabwe risked total economic collapse with the real inflation rate now running at around 5 million percent.
More from The Economist

Maisonneuve Media Scout’s take

Robert Mugabe’s tyrannical rule over Zimbabwe is nearly secured after opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai dropped his bid for the presidency yesterday. Calling the elections a “sham,” Tsvangirai claimed Mugabe’s campaign of violence precludes the possibility of a fair vote. Thus, Mugabe’s stranglehold on a country that he’s driven right into the ground will continue into the foreseeable future. The outlook for a Zimbabwean political and economic recovery seemed bright after Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change won more votes than Mugabe in a March election. However, since then, Mugabe has unleashed a whirlwind of terror against all corners of opposition support. Eighty-six people have been killed, and roughly 200,000 are displaced as Mugabe’s “thugs,” supporters of the ruling ZANU-PF party, have run roughshod over the country. Tsvangirai has said he cannot ask his supporters to risk their lives on election day, June 27, but has called on the international community to “stop the genocide.” Hopes to recuperate the country from Mugabe’s disastrous economic reforms have vanished now that his rule is projected to continue.
The Big Seven report on the event with a tragic sigh, but it is the Post’s analyses that shine. The paper runs David Blair’s critique of Tsvangirai’s decision from the Daily Telegraph. Blair laments Tsvangirai’s vacillating leadership and “disastrous judgment,” as it was only last week that the opposition leader announced that a boycott of the election would be a “betrayal of the victims.” For Blair, election time would have been inevitably tumultuous, but, given the size of his estimated lead, Tsvangirai’s victory was nearly certain. (Whether or not Mugabe would have honoured that victory is another matter.) Tsvangirai’s decision to drop out, Blair contends, has secured the continuation of a despotic regime. The Post also publishes the Daily Telegraph’s Louis Weston, who bemoans that the torch has been voluntarily surrendered to a dictator whose government has committed genocide, condoned the stealing of land, approved assassinations, and incited economic inflation of some t wo million percent. However, according to the Globe’s anonymous Harare reporter, Mugabe’s imminent ill-gotten victory will only further sully his reputation among the African Union and evoke further sanctions. For now, the world looks at Zimbabwe with a disapproving eye: The European Union calls the situation a “travesty” and the White House urged Zimbabwe’s “thugs to stop the violence.” However, it’s the African Union that will be tested when it meets to discuss the situation. “Only God who appointed me will remove me,” Mugabe said last week, betraying a gross misunderstanding of the whole notion of democracy; and if what Mugabe says is the case, Zimbabweans wait in trepidation on God’s will.

June 22
Contrary to other opinions, we believe that Morgan Tsvangirai has done the honorable thing in pulling out in the face of the outrageous thuggery of the Mugabe forces and, one hopes, avoiding the inevitable bloodbath that would have resulted from his victory in the run-off. That he has changed his mind may be attributed to a realistic appraisal of Mugabe’s determination to cling to power at whatever cost to the country. Meantime, we continue to deplore the sickly international efforts to ‘maintain peace, order and democracy’.

Zimbabwe opposition pulls out of election

(CBC) Zimbabwe’s opposition leader has pulled out of Friday’s runoff election against President Robert Mugabe because of mounting violence and intimidation against opposition candidates.
He also asked the United Nations “to intervene to restore the rule of law, peace, and the conditions of a free and fair election.”
NYT ; The Guardian ;
(Reuters) FACTBOX - What next in Zimbabwe’s political crisis?

Amidst the predictable self-justifying quotes from various Zimbabwean officials comes this pusillanimous comment from Thabo Mbeki, who has failed so miserably in any effort to resolve the crisis “Of course we would like to encourage the MDC to continue to play a role in the normalisation of the political process in Zimbabwe. We are very encouraged that Mr Tsvangirai, himself, says he is not closing the door completely on negotiations.” BBC

(Al Jazeera) Dethroning Mugabe no easy task

China, Beijing Olympics II

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:46:01 +0000

China, Beijing Olympics ; Tibet
Official website
The Official Mascots of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games
The Olympic Emblem

July 23
China ‘to allow Olympic protests’
China says it will allow demonstrations in three designated city parks during the Olympic Games in Beijing.
But anyone wanting to protest will have to apply for permission from the city’s government and police.
July 22
Bunker mentality as Beijing readies for Games
BEIJING (AFP) — Its ancient city walls were demolished decades ago, but with the Olympic Games fast approaching Beijing is raising a new defence that is echoing those long-gone fortifications.
The capital has gone into fortress mode for next month’s Games, with police checkpoints choking road traffic into Beijing, tightened security across the city, and even surface-to-air missiles set up near Olympic venues.
July 21
Putin to attend Olympics launch
Putin, formerly Russia’s president, joins a host of world leaders including US President George W Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy who have confirmed their participation in the ceremony on August 8.
July 8
Officials Note Two Concerns for Olympics: Air and Access
Pollution and media access remain uncertainties as Beijing hustles to finish construction projects and get the city ready for the Aug. 8 opening ceremonies.
July 7
Beijing Olympics soaking up water supplies
(Canadian Consulting Engineer) The Canadian environmental group Probe International has issued a report saying that this year’s Olympic Games in Beijing are contributing to a chronic water supply shortage in the city.
July 4
Bush to Attend Opening Ceremony in Beijing
June 30
The Olympic Games were founded to bridge cultural divides and promote peace between nations. Instead, they often mask human rights abuses, do little to spur political change, and lend legitimacy to some of the world’s most unsavory governments. Worse, the Beijing Games could still be the most controversial of them all.
Trapped by its grandiose goal of embracing the entire “human family” at whatever cost, the IOC has repeatedly caved in and awarded the games to police states bent on staging spectacular festivals that serve only to reinforce their own authority. Of course, the most notorious example is the 1936 Berlin Games, which were promoted by a network of Nazi agents working both inside and outside the IOC. (Foreign Policy - subscriber only)
June 27
(BBC) Tourism slow as Olympics approach
June 18
Foreign Affairs
In “China’s Olympic Nightmare,” Elizabeth Economy and Adam Segal describe the challenges China faces on the eve of the Olympic Games and how failing to peacefully and successfully address them could jeopardize China’s credibility as a rising global power. In a similar vein, C. Fred Bergsten argues that China continues to act like a small country with little impact on the global system and little responsibility for it; to avoid a global economic train wreck, he contends, Washington and Beijing must develop a genuine partnership of equals.
June 15
Will China’s economy perform at Games?
While analysts have noted a post-Olympic downturn following previous games, because of its smaller proportion of the greater economy, this may not be an issue in China.
After the dramatic increase in investment in the pre-Olympics stage, accompanied by a boom in consumption and revenues, investment and consumption traditionally shrink in the post-Olympic stage.
There is also the burden of maintenance cost for idle Olympic venues, as well as potential downturn in use of new games-related infrastructure.
June 13
BBC will show Beijing Olympics protests
(The Telegraph) The BBC will show political protests if they occur during the Beijing Olympics, the corporation said yesterday, even if the Games’ organisers attempt to censor official footage.
Dave Gordon, head of major sports events for the BBC, told The Daily Telegraph that Beijing had become “more difficult” for broadcasters than the Moscow Games in 1980.
He said international representatives had tried to get answers for two years on whether the Olympic broadcasting agency that provides the only feed of the actual events would show footage of protests if they occurred.
June 8
Networks, Olympics organizers clash
BEIJING (AP) — Television networks that will broadcast the Beijing Olympics to billions around the world are squaring off with local organizers over stringent security that threatens coverage of the games in two months.
Differences over a wide range of issues — from limits on live coverage in Tiananmen Square to allegations that freight shipments of TV broadcasting equipment are being held up in Chinese ports — surfaced in a contentious meeting late last month between Beijing organizers and high-ranking International Olympic Committee officials and TV executives — including those from NBC.
May 31
China’s Pride: A 24-Karat Olympic Machine
In anticipation of China’s debut as an Olympic host, officials here have seized the opportunity to prove their country is a world power in sports. Rowing is at the heart of China’s plan to capture, for the first time, more gold medals than any other nation at the Olympic Games.
May 11
Don’t coddle Beijing - it must account for its role Darfur: Roméo Dallaire
Many consider it taboo to speak of the genocide in Darfur and the upcoming Beijing Olympics in the same breath. I disagree entirely. I believe the two should be firmly linked in the public’s mind, and I said so in blunt terms during a recent CBC interview.
The Right Way to Pressure Beijing By William F. Schulz
(Foreign Affairs April 2008) Human rights groups are rightly outraged about China’s abysmal record. But it is foolhardy to treat a rising superpower like a tin-pot dictatorship. Sometimes, a little pragmatism goes a long way.
That the Chinese take symbolism so seriously, however, provides a rare opening for those who care about human rights. There are, after all, only a limited number of ways in which human rights groups or Western governments can influence China on civil and political rights. Formal diplomatic entreaties usually yield shallow results. Trying to isolate the world’s most populous country is not an option. Economic sanctions that worked against apartheid South Africa and maintain at least nominal pressure on countries such as Burma and Zimbabwe would be fruitless against the world’s second-largest economy. Military intervention to stop human rights violations is unthinkable.
April 29
China marks 100 days to Olympics
(BBC) Highlights of the day will include a long-distance race in Beijing and the unveiling of an Olympic theme tune.
Wednesday will also see the return of the Olympic flame to China after its controversial global relay.

Bad Days for Newsrooms—and Democracy

Diana Thébaud Nicholson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:44:58 +0000

July 21
By Chris Hedges
(Truthdig) The decline of newspapers is not about the replacement of the antiquated technology of news print with the lightning speed of the Internet. It does not signal an inevitable and salutary change. It is not a form of progress. The decline of newspapers is about the rise of the corporate state, the loss of civic and public responsibility on the part of much of our entrepreneurial class and the intellectual poverty of our post-literate world, a world where information is conveyed primarily through rapidly moving images rather than print.
All these forces have combined to strangle newspapers. And the blood on the floor, this year alone, is disheartening. Some 6,000 journalists nationwide have lost their jobs, news pages are being radically cut back and newspaper stocks have tumbled. Advertising revenues are dramatically falling off with many papers seeing double-digit drops. McClatchy Co., publisher of the Miami Herald, has seen its shares fall by 77 percent this year. Lee Enterprises Inc., which owns the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, is down 84 percent. Gannett Co., which publishes USA Today, is trading at nearly a 17-year low. The San Francisco Chronicle is now losing $1 million a week.
The Internet will not save newspapers. Although all major newspapers, and most smaller ones, have Web sites, and have had for a while, newspaper Web sites make up less than 10 percent of newspaper ad revenue. Analysts say that although Net advertising amounts to $21 billion a year, that amount is actually relatively small. So far, the really big advertisers have stayed away, either unsure of how to use the Internet or suspicious that it can’t match the viewer attention of older media.
Newspapers, when well run, are a public trust. They provide, at their best, the means for citizens to examine themselves, to ferret out lies and the abuse of power by elected officials and corrupt businesses, to give a voice to those who would, without the press, have no voice, and to follow, in ways a private citizen cannot, the daily workings of local, state and federal government. Newspapers hire people to write about city hall, the state capital, political campaigns, sports, music, art and theater. They keep citizens engaged with their cultural, civic and political life. When I began as a foreign correspondent 25 years ago, most major city papers had bureaus in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Moscow. Reporters and photographers showed Americans how the world beyond our borders looked, thought and believed. Most of this is vanishing or has vanished.
We live under the happy illusion that we can transfer news-gathering to the Internet. News-gathering will continue to exist, as it does on this Web site and sites such as ProPublica and Slate, but these traditions now have to contend with a new, widespread and ideologically driven partisanship that dominates the dissemination of views and information, from Fox News to blogger screeds. The majority of bloggers and Internet addicts, like the endless rows of talking heads on television, do not report. They are largely parasites who cling to traditional news outlets. They can produce stinging and insightful commentary, which has happily seen the monopoly on opinion pieces by large papers shattered, but they rarely pick up the phone, much less go out and find a story. Nearly all reporting—I would guess at least 80 percent—is done by newspapers and the wire services. Take that away and we have a huge black hole.
Those who rely on the Internet gravitate to sites that reinforce their beliefs. The filtering of information through an ideological lens, which is destroying television journalism, defies the purpose of reporting. Journalism is about transmitting information that doesn’t care what you think. Reporting challenges, countermands or destabilizes established beliefs. Reporting, which is time-consuming and often expensive, begins from the premise that there are things we need to know and understand, even if these things make us uncomfortable. If we lose this ethic we are left with pandering, packaging and partisanship. We are left awash in a sea of competing propaganda. Bloggers, unlike most established reporters, rarely admit errors. They cannot get fired. Facts, for many bloggers, are interchangeable with opinions. Take a look at The Drudge Report. This may be the new face of what we call news.
When the traditional news organizations go belly up we will lose a vast well of expertise and information. Our democracy will suffer a body blow. Not that many will notice. The average time a reader of The New York Times spends with the printed paper is about 45 minutes. The average time a viewer spends on The New York Times Web site is about seven minutes. There is a difference between browsing and reading. And the Web is built for browsing rather than for reading. When there is a long piece on the Internet, most of us have to print it out to get through it.
The rise of our corporate state has done the most, however, to decimate traditional news-gathering. Time Warner, Disney, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., General Electric and Viacom control nearly everything we read, watch, hear and ultimately think. And news that does not make a profit, as well as divert viewers from civic participation and challenging the status quo, is not worth pursuing. This is why the networks have shut down their foreign bureaus. This is why cable newscasts, with their chatty anchors, all look and sound like the “Today” show. This is why the FCC, in an example of how far our standards have fallen, defines shows like Fox’s celebrity gossip program “TMZ” and the Christian Broadcast Network’s “700 Club” as “bona fide newscasts.” This is why television news personalities, people like Katie Couric, have become celebrities earning, in her case, $15 million a year. This is why newspapers like the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune are being ruthlessly cannibalized by corporate trolls like Sam Zell, turned into empty husks that focus increasingly on boutique journalism. Corporations are not in the business of news. They hate news, real news. Real news is not convenient to their rape of the nation. Real news makes people ask questions. They prefer to close the prying eyes of reporters. They prefer to transform news into another form of mindless amusement and entertainment.
A democracy survives when its citizens have access to trustworthy and impartial sources of information, when it can discern lies from truth. Take this away and a democracy dies. The fusion of news and entertainment, the rise of a class of celebrity journalists on television who define reporting by their access to the famous and the powerful, the retreat by many readers into the ideological ghettos of the Internet and the ruthless drive by corporations to destroy the traditional news business are leaving us deaf, dumb and blind.
We are cleverly entertained during our descent. We have our own version of ancient Rome’s bread and circuses with our ubiquitous and elaborate spectacles, sporting events, celebrity gossip and television reality shows. Societies in decline, as the Roman philosopher Cicero wrote, see their civic and political discourse contaminated by the excitement and emotional life of the arena. And the citizens in these degraded societies, he warned, always end up ruled by a despot, a Nero or a George W. Bush.