Europe & EU Caucasus 2011- 2023

13 December
Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange prisoners in step towards normalisation
Azerbaijan releases 32 Armenians, most of whom were held since 2020, in exchange for two soldiers held since April.

9 December
Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 after fraught negotiations
Climate activists likely to be concerned by another fossil fuel-reliant country taking over summit presidency
(The Guardian) Under UN rules it was eastern Europe’s turn to take over the rotating presidency but the groups need to unanimously decide on the host. Russia had blocked EU countries and Azerbaijan and Armenia were blocking each other’s bids.
Onlookers were beginning to worry about whether a country could be agreed that would be able to stump up the money and facilities needed to host such a large conference. But Armenia retracted its bid and agreed to back Azerbaijan.
Climate activists are likely to react with concern to the news, given the perception already that Cops have been partly captured by fossil fuel interests. Much like this year’s host, the country of 10 million people on the border of eastern Europe and western Asia relies economically on fossil fuels: oil and gas production accounted for nearly half of Azerbaijan’s GDP and more than 92.5% of its export revenue last year, according to the US government’s International Trade Administration.
Civil society organisations have also said Azerbaijan has a poor record on human rights. On the Freedom Index, a ranking by a US-based NGO, the country is ranked as “not free”, with a score of 9/100 on political rights and civil liberties

7 December
Armenia and Azerbaijan announce deal to exchange POWs and work toward peace treaty
(AP) Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed Thursday to exchange prisoners of war and work toward signing a peace treaty in what the European Union hailed as a major step toward peace in the long-troubled region.
The two countries said in a joint statement they “share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace.” They said they intend “to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

2 December
They reported the truth about corruption in Azerbaijan. Now they’re in prison.
(WaPo editorial board) In Azerbaijan, a country run by an authoritarian regime, it has taken gumption and daring for the independent journalists of Abzas Media to report. The headlines on their website list revelatory exposés about the foreign minister’s family wealth; a village relocated because of the president’s son-in-law; and companies with millions in unpaid taxes winning billions in new contracts.
This month, the journalists paid a price for their audacity. President Ilham Aliyev,…who has never shown tolerance for dissent or criticism, began a crackdown — hardly his first — against independent media, using spurious legal charges to silence them.

8 November
US hosts talks between Armenia, Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers
Antony Blinken praises Yerevan and Baku for taking ‘courageous steps’ towards a durable peace as he hosts meeting in Washington, DC
(The World) The US hosted talks in Washington DC between diplomats from Armenia and Azerbaijan, just hours after a fresh shootout along the two countries’ contentious border. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the plan was to build on previous talks from the UN General Assembly. He praised the two countries for taking “courageous steps” toward a durable peace in light of repeated clashes over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in recent years. The worst fighting between the two countries since 2020 broke out again last September. An American official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the meeting was meant to provide an opportunity for the two sides to negotiate.

7-8 November
Central Asian migrants in Russia fear economic sanctions (audio)
Russia’s new isolation from the global economy has led to layoffs and business closures. It’s affecting both Russians and migrant laborers from Central Asia, who are the backbone of Russia’s labor force. Now, some of these workers are packing up and going home. Levi Bridges reports from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on the toll this may take on families, and an economy that relies heavily on remittances from migrant workers.
Stuck without passports in Kazakhstan, Russians who avoided the draft face a ticking clock
As hundreds of thousands of young men streamed into Central Asia to avoid the draft in Russia at the end of September, activists realized that many of the new arrivals were now jobless, homeless — and without legal papers.

26 October
Armenia on verge of signing peace deal with Azerbaijan, PM says
The truce would come after weeks of warnings the two countries could be on the brink of a new conflict.
(Politico Eu) Armenia could agree terms on a comprehensive peace agreement with neighboring Azerbaijan, ending a bitter regional rivalry after three decades of hostilities, the South Caucasus country’s prime minister said Thursday.
Speaking at a conference in Georgia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his government could sign “an agreement on peace and the establishment of relationships” with its neighbor “in the coming months.”
At the same time, he unveiled a “Crossroads of Peace” project designed to reopen road and railway links that have been blocked for decades amid the simmering conflict with Azerbaijan and its close ally, Turkey.
The announcement comes just weeks after Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive to take control of the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been fought over by the two sides since the fall of the USSR. An estimated 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the mountainous territory were forced to flee their homes as their unrecognized breakaway state collapsed after 30 years of de facto autonomy.
On Tuesday, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said the decisive military action means there are now “real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a short period of time.”

25 October
Joly announces more funding for Armenian refugees, stops short of threatening sanctions on Azerbaijan
Recently opened embassy is Canada’s first in southern Caucasus
(CBC) Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced another $1 million in humanitarian funding Wednesday to help displaced ethnic Armenian refugees who recently fled a military operation launched by Azerbaijan — but she stopped well short of threatening to sanction Azeri government officials over the attack.
“I’ve said everything is on the table. That being said, we expect that Armenia’s territorial integrity [will] be respected and for us, this is definitely something that we’re watching,” Joly told journalists during a visit to Armenia’s capital Yerevan to open Canada’s new embassy there. She was attending a press conference with her Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan.
The $1 million has been earmarked for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, on top of $2.5 million Canada announced previously for refugee relief through the International Committee of the Red Cross.
More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians are believed to have fled Azerbaijan’s shelling campaign in the long-disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September. Called an “anti terror” operation by Azerbaijan, the campaign also followed nine months of a blockade imposed by Baku that left the region short of food and medical supplies.

12-14 October
Another WAR Brewing! After Ukraine & Israel, South Caucasus Braces For A Full-Scale Conflict – Report
(Eurasian Times) Amidst the protracted Ukraine-Russia conflict, a recent Hamas terrorist attack on Israel has heightened the possibility of an Israeli ground offensive on Gaza. Concurrently, there are growing concerns about a third conflict brewing in the South Caucasus, with the US reportedly indicating that Azerbaijan may soon invade Armenia.
Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks
He also said State isn’t planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
The call indicates the depth of concern in the administration about Azerbaijan’s operations against a breakaway region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading.
In an Oct. 3 phone call, lawmakers pressed Blinken on possible measures against [Azerbaijiani President Ilham] Aliyev in response to his country’s invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September…
Blinken responded that the State Department was looking at avenues to hold Azerbaijan accountable and isn’t planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku. He added that State saw a possibility that Azerbaijan would invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.
Still, Blinken expressed confidence about ongoing diplomatic talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Armenia wants a UN court to impose measures aimed at protecting rights of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians
(AP) — Armenia urged the United Nations top court on Thursday to impose new interim orders on Azerbaijan to prevent what the leader of Armenia’s legal team called the “ethnic cleansing” of the Nagorno-Karabakh region from becoming irreversible.
Armenia asked judges at the International Court of Justice for 10 “provisional measures” aimed at protecting the rights of ethnic Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh region that Azerbaijan reclaimed last month following a swift military operation.

5 October
European Parliament condemns Azerbaijan and EU over Nagorno-Karabakh attack
Lawmakers say gas and oil imports into EU should be blocked if Baku moves against Armenia.
(Politico Eu) The European Parliament on Thursday adopted a resolution condemning Azerbaijan and the EU’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, two weeks after Baku launched a lightning strike into the enclave, forcing 100,000 people to flee.
The resolution, which mentions “a gross violation of human rights and international law” and “unjustified military attack,” was adopted by an overwhelming majority of all groups: 491 MEPs voted in favor, with only nine against and 36 abstentions.
Lawmakers called for the EU and its member countries to urgently reassess the bloc’s ties with Azerbaijan and pushed to suspend “all imports of oil and gas from Azerbaijan to the EU in the event of military aggression against Armenian territorial integrity or … attacks against Armenia’s constitutional order and democratic institutions.”

2 October
Third war over Karabakh crystallizes a new balance of power in the South Caucasus
(Middle East Institute) The final military episode of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over Karabakh seems to have ended. The third Karabakh war lasted only 24 hours, concluding on Sept. 20, with the separatist Armenian Karabakh military forces capitulating. Unlike in the previous two wars — of 1988-1994 and September-November 2020, respectively — this time the Republic of Armenia stayed out of the fighting. As Baku claimed victory, a large exodus quickly ensued. Over the next week, 100,000 ethnic Armenians from Karabakh, roughly 80% of the heretofore disputed territory’s total population, fled to Armenia. The social, political, demographic, and economic implications of this refugee wave will be felt across the region in the years to come.
So what next for the South Caucasus? Two of the neighboring powers that have dominated the region for centuries — Iran and Russia — notably avoided getting involved in the latest deadly exchanges in Karabakh. On paper, both back Armenia, with Moscow being a treaty ally; and Russia once more negotiated the ceasefire. But Yerevan is apparently keen to rid itself of its long-term patron: Illustratively, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared his country’s security guarantees “ineffective.” On the other hand, Turkey, as Azerbaijan’s most important ally, seems to have stepped up as the region’s most influential power. The West — both the United States and the European Union — have played a limited role.

1 October
UN mission arrives in Nagorno-Karabakh as ethnic Armenian exodus nears end
(Reuters) – A United Nations mission arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh on Sunday, Azerbaijani media reported, as a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region began drawing to a close following a Azerbaijani military offensive last month.
The mission, led by a senior U.N. aid official, is the global body’s first access to the region in about 30 years.
Armenia has asked the World Court to order Azerbaijan to withdraw all its troops from civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh and give the United Nations access.

30 September
‘Azerbaijan is hungry for land’: Armenians fear country will seek to grab more territory
After Baku’s success in Nagorno-Karabakh, it could attempt to encroach farther, locals believe
(The Guardian) After losing a war in 2020, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan brokered by Russia that grants a land corridor through Armenia to Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave, and on to Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally. The corridor, which was to run along a railway through southern Armenia, was to be policed by the FSB, Russia’s main border guard service.
But the Azerbaijani parliament has also held recent hearings on western Azerbaijan, an irredentist term that the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, has also started to use in public and which in particular refers to the Syunik province, where Tegh is located.

29 September
Armenia: Cast Adrift in a Tough Neighborhood
While the Caucasus nation might want to reduce its reliance on Russia for a more reliable ally, Western nations have offered moral support but little else.
(NYT) On the day Azerbaijan’s military sliced through the defenses of an ethnic Armenian redoubt last week, American soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division had just finished a training mission in nearby Armenia, a longtime ally of Russia that has been trying to reduce its near-total dependence on Moscow for its security.
The Americans unfurled a banner made up of the flags of the United States and Armenia, posed for photographs — and then left the country. At the same time, nearly 2,000 Russian “peacekeepers” were dealing with the mayhem unleashed by their earlier failure to keep the peace in the contested area, Nagorno-Karabakh, recognized internationally as being part of Azerbaijan.
The timing of the U.S. soldiers’ rapid exit at the end of their training work — carried out under the intimidating name Eagle Partner but involving only 85 soldiers — had been scheduled for months.

24-27 September
‘Where are France, America and Charles Michel?’ Armenians rage as 50,000 flee Nagorno-Karabakh
Brussels put itself front and center in an ill-fated campaign to be a regional peacemaker — but now doesn’t dare upset gas-rich Azerbaijan.
(Politico Eu) Ethnic Armenians are venting their frustration at the EU’s failed attempts to mediate in the growing humanitarian crisis over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — as more than half of the territory’s residents now appear to have fled, fearing ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan’s army.
Baku’s lightning advance into Nagorno-Karabakh last week — and the subsequent refugee exodus — is a stinging diplomatic failure for the EU, which had staked significant political capital in trying to style itself as a peacemaker. European Council President Charles Michel became a prominent personality in the region, and EU observers were deployed to observe the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier. Ultimately, however, the EU now looks unlikely to turn to sanctions against Azerbaijan as it is unwilling to rock relations with a nation that it calls a “crucial” partner on natural gas supply.

Erdogan meets Azerbaijan’s Aliyev as thousands flee Nagorno-Karabakh
Turkish president visits Azerbaijan’s autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, says swift Nagorno-Karabakh victory brings pride.
Erdogan and Aliyev signed a deal for a gas pipeline and the Turkish leader said “I’m very pleased to be with all of you as we connect Nakhchivan with the Turkish world.”
Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh victory highlights limits of Russia’s power</strong>
Dan Sabbagh Defence and security editor
With Moscow’s resources ‘clearly finite’ the Kremlin has had to adapt to Baku’s rising power
(The Guardian) Azerbaijan’s military victory in the extended 35-year conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is a notable geopolitical setback for Russia, traditionally Armenia’s partner and ally.
Moscow’s post-Soviet strategy has often been to stoke conflicts to weaken its near neighbours, creating crises in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. But on this occasion the Kremlin has had to adapt to Azerbaijan’s rising power – showing a willingness to sacrifice an old ally.
Ethnic Armenians flee Nagorno-Karabakh as Russia fails to uphold peace deal
Hundreds of Armenians waiting for gasoline to flee the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh were injured in an explosion at a fuel depot on Monday, according to local officials, as senior U.S. officials visited Armenia and pledged humanitarian support to deal with a flood of refugees that began Sunday ahead of an imminent takeover by Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh exodus grows as Armenia warns of ‘ethnic cleansing’
The first convoys of injured people have left the besieged region, with displaced civilians following behind

25 September
The Golden Road to Samarkand
by Amir Taheri
(Gatestone) The Russian media, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s speech at the summit, say the SCO is designed to end “the unipolar world “by creating a “multipolar system”.
The Chinese media offer a different version. The SCO is meant to offer a new political system for the whole world as an alternative to the Western democratic model.
To the Islamic media in Tehran, celebrating the Islamic Republic’s admission to the club after 11 years of supplication, the SCO is an extension of the “Resistance Front” created to contain and defeat the American “Great Satan.”
The SCO’s identity as a club of queer fellows has been further emphasized by the admission of a host of new members all of whom have territorial disputes with each other.
Some Western commentators have dubbed the SCO “a new power bloc”. That may be jumping the gun a bit. SCO members are more dependent on trade with the European Union, the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia than with each other.
The Samarkand club represents some 40 percent of the world’s population and over 20 percent of the global GDP, not to mention four of the 9 nations with nuclear arsenals. Yet, it seems unlikely to become an anchor of stability in Eurasia; its members are more interested in petty schemes than grand ideas of peace and cooperation.
But what is it for? This is the question that the media in Russia, China, Iran and half a dozen countries were posing all last week in the wake of a summit in Samarkand that brought their leaders together as members or aspiring members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

21 September
C. Uday Bhaskar: Tensions between China, India and Russia at Samarkand summit cloud SCO’s effectiveness
• The summit drew interest over a rare trip outside China for Xi Jinping, bringing him, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi together
• The expressions of concern over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lack of a Xi-Modi handshake show a petulance that augurs poorly for the SCO
(SCMP) The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, concluded on Friday with the leaders signing off on a comprehensive joint declaration in Russian that was more than 7,800 words long, subdivided into 121 paragraphs in its English translation.
In the opening section of the declaration, the leaders of the SCO member states – China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – noted the global changes the world is experiencing. They said: “The current system of international challenges and threats is becoming more complex, the situation in the world is dangerously degrading, existing local conflicts and crises are intensifying and new ones are emerging.”
This was an accurate and bleak summary of a conflict-ridden world. Even as the SCO summit unfolded, the war in Ukraine crossed the 200-day mark with no end in sight. Clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. A stable peace in Eurasia seems increasingly elusive.

19-20 September
Why have there been clashes over control of Nagorno-Karabakh?
(CNN) … The flare-up – which killed hundreds of people, according to local authorities – alarmed the international community and raised questions over Russia’s ability to maintain its long-term role as power broker in the region.
A new Caucasus conflict tests the limits of US power
(Brookings) The Biden administration doesn’t want to see the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh forced to flee, but it also doesn’t want to fully alienate Azerbaijan, which is strategically located between Turkey and Iran. It cannot make promises to Armenia that it cannot keep.
The best — and the only — solution is diplomacy: forcing Azeris and Armenians to come back to the negotiating table. The Biden administration should involve the United Nations and work with Europe to provide a framework to secure the livelihood and rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. If the Armenians of the enclave gradually flee to Armenia, Western support and humanitarian aid will be critical.
More importantly, the United States and Europe should prevent a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That requires a heavy lift to get the two sides to return to peace negotiations and delineate their borders. (The two signed a cease-fire in 2020 but never a comprehensive peace deal.)
Turkey, counterintuitive as it sounds, might be helpful in such a deal — and the United States should test that. Ankara has long wanted to see the restoration of regional trade routes and claims it is ready to normalize relations with Armenia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long fancied himself as an international mediator and, if he sees a global role here, he might be constructive in convincing Azeris. A Turkish offer to open its long-sealed border with Armenia would also lessen the blow for the government in Yerevan.
Armenia protests follow Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire
(BBC) There were clashes between police and demonstrators in the Armenian capital of Yerevan on Wednesday, as thousands protested the government’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.
Azerbaijan said it had restored its sovereignty over the territory, after a deadly 24-hour military offensive.
It has led to Armenia being accused of failing to protect ethnic Armenians in the contested territory.
Protesters are calling for Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to quit.
They say he made too many concessions in the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh, and did little to help the ethnic Armenians who live there.
Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces reach Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire deal
Armenian forces surrender all their ammunition to the Azeri army as the warring sides confirm a ceasefire mediated by Russian peacekeepers.
Nagorno-Karabakh catastrophe fires anger against Armenia’s leader
Despite Moscow’s inaction, pro-Russian politicians are seizing on Azerbaijan’s offensive to steer Armenia away from the West.
(Politico Eu) Chants went up in support of the ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijani troops launched a lightning offensive the day before. Others in the crowd — a few thousand strong — called for Armenia’s embattled prime minister, liberal reformer Nikol Pashinyan, to resign over the defeat and bloodshed.
The supreme fear is that many of the 100,000 Armenians in the enclave will be driven out in ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijani forces.
Nagorno-Karabakh war flares again
(GZERO) In recent months, Karabakh has suffered shortages of food and medical supplies under an Azeri blockade, but both sides had appeared to be talking about peace.
The Armenian government on Tuesday appeared unwilling to send its forces directly into the conflict, and called on Russia to stop Azerbaijan’s assault.
The attack comes as Yerevan is increasingly at odds with its traditional security partner Russia. Armenia’s PM last week said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine meant that Yerevan’s long-time reliance on the Kremlin for defense and peacekeeping was “a mistake.” As if to drive the point home, Armenian forces then held military drills with the US. On Tuesday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Armenia had brought the Azeri assault on itself by “siding with NATO.”

18 September
Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan: The terror and death of a fruitless border conflict
Tens of thousands have been displaced and dozens killed in the fighting.
(Eurasianet.org) Border areas in Tajikistan, which have also seen rocket attacks, are more populous than those in Kyrgyzstan. But news of evacuation efforts there has filtered out only by word of mouth. The government’s official channels in Dushanbe have entirely disregarded the humanitarian aspect of the unrest.
For several days, the news of fatalities too only came through anonymous accounts from locals. The authoritarian regime in Tajikistan has cowed both journalists and citizens into submission. Even reporting on the victims of conflict is hazardous.
Putin calls on Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to de-escalate
(Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan following clashes on the border of the Central Asian republics, the Kremlin said on Sunday.

16 September
Ukraine war: with Russia bogged down on the battlefield, trouble has flared up again in the Caucasus
Kevork Oskanian, Lecturer, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology, University of Exeter
(The Conversation) Almost two years ago, what is now referred to as the “Second Karabakh War” broke the uneasy truce which had been in effect between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994. After 44 days of intense fighting – with thousands of dead on both sides – it ended in a precarious, Russian-mediated ceasefire on November 10, 2020.
The nine-point document setting out the terms of the ceasefire in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus largely cemented the gains made by Azerbaijan during the war. Among others, it provided for a withdrawal of Armenia’s troops from Azerbaijan and the restoration of economic and transportation links between the two countries. This is particularly important for Azerbaijan, whose access to its Nakhchivan exclave is separated by Armenia’s Syunik province. The agreement also included arrangements for the stationing of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh until at least 2025.
This ceasefire has been fragile from the start. But Azerbaijan’s recent shelling of several towns and villages across its border with Armenia is different from previous crises.
These are by far the most violent hostilities since the war in 2020. And this time, they are taking place in the Republic of Armenia – a nominal ally of Russia’s – rather than Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
Two factors are at play in this latest series of escalations. The first is the tortuous effort – led by Russia and the EU – at negotiating the ceasefire and a final peace agreement. Now there is the added uncertainty brought by Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, which has compromised Moscow’s position as a security guarantor.

15 September
Kazakhstan’s Snap Presidential Election: A Shot at Democratization?
The war in Ukraine has enabled Kazakhstan’s Tokayev to reinvent himself as a truly independent figure, no longer reliant on either his predecessor Nazarbayev or Russia’s Putin. Now Tokayev hopes to cement this status by securing a popular mandate to rule.
(Carnegie) At first glance, this fall’s snap presidential election in Kazakhstan may strike observers as just the latest attempt by an authoritarian leader to extend his grip on power. However, there may be grounds for optimism when it comes to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s promise to transform the political system, even as concerns remain that Tokayev will ultimately prioritize his own interests—and those of other elites—over the cause of democratization.

14 September
Former Soviet states eye opportunities as Russia struggles in Ukraine
Shaun Walker
Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus and central Asia is being unravelled by its ‘special military operation’
(The Guardian) The rout of the Russian army in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region seems likely to be a turning point in Kyiv’s battle to kick Russian troops out of the country, but it may also cause much broader fallout for Moscow in the wider region, as other former Soviet countries witness what appears to be the limits of Moscow’s capabilities.
“The power of the Russian flag has declined considerably, and the security system across the former Soviet space does seem to be broken,” said Laurence Broers, associate fellow at Chatham House.
This week, with attention focused across the Black Sea in Ukraine, fighting on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia killed about 100 troops after Azerbaijan shelled a number of towns in Armenia, with both sides accusing each other of “provocations”.

2 September
Nicholas Kristof: Another Ethnic Cleansing Could Be Underway — and We’re Not Paying Attention
The current crisis began late last year, when Azerbaijanis began blockading the only road into Nagorno-Karabakh, the Lachin corridor to Armenia, on which the territory depends for food and medicine.
The International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to remove the blockade. Instead, the Azerbaijani government established a checkpoint on the road and began blocking even humanitarian aid carried by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
A third of deaths in Nagorno-Karabakh are attributed by the local authorities to malnutrition, the BBC said. I have no way of verifying these reports, but every indication is that the situation is dire — and getting worse by the day.

14 August
Armenia, Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis that needs attention
(GZERO) …the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is one of many impacts from the Russian war in Ukraine. Not new. There’s been a war for decades over this little territory, an autonomous Armenian populated territory inside Azerbaijan, former two Soviet republics.
Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. It is small, it is mountainous, it is all of 120,000 people. It is fiercely contested. When the Soviet Union collapsed, in part would support from Russia, Armenia had military superiority. They were able to not only have control over it, but also buffer regions bordering it. They didn’t negotiate very seriously with the Azeris, in part because they had the upper hand. That is now changing. Azerbaijan has been building up their own military capabilities, in part from a lot of energy wealth from the Caspian, in part with support from Turkey, which is very aligned with Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, Russia, which is Armenia’s major supporter, really their only kind of strong geopolitical supporter with troops in Armenia and peacekeepers on the ground, very distracted given the invasion of Ukraine and under a lot of pressure. That has meant reduced troop presence and them acting largely on the sidelines. Azerbaijan, sensing opportunity, struck, took back occupied territory around Nagorno-Karabakh, and now have a functional lock on any ability to get in or out of the territory.

4 August
In the third of a series of interviews with the Queen Elizabeth II Academy faculty, Alex Cooley examines the challenges of reigning in kleptocratic networks.
Cracking down on kleptocracy
Kleptocracy literally means ‘rule by thieves’, and in contemporary usage refers to the plundering of economies and societies by political elites for their own personal gain.
(Chatham House) … oil-exporting countries like…Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have incubated classic kleptocrats along with transnational reputation laundering schemes involving Western institutions. …

15 July
What is the Eurasian Economic Union?
Explaining the history, purpose, and political background to the Eurasian Economic Union.
(Chatham House) The Eurasian Economic Union consists of five member states: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.
In theory, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU or EEAU) is an ambitious project for economic integration in the former Soviet region. Its formal objectives are to create a common market much like the European Union (EU).
It aims to achieve this by coordinating economic policy, eliminating non-tariff trade barriers, harmonizing regulations, and modernizing the economies of its five member states.
However, the reality of integration between the five member states is cumbersome and patchy.
… On 3 September 2013, after a summit meeting between President Sargsyan of Armenia and President Putin of Russia, it was announced that Armenia would join the Eurasian Customs Union instead, shortly to become the EEU.
This would see Armenia enjoy discounted natural gas supplies and the removal of duties on Russian petroleum products. Armenian activists argued the government had been pressured into joining the EEU as part of Russia’s efforts to cement its influence over former Soviet states.
Russia made a similar attempt to compel Ukraine to reject the EU in favour of EEU membership but this failed and protests saw the government of President Viktor Yanukovych ousted from power in 2014. This began a sequence of events which led to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the escalating Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022.

21 February
The EU’s new role in mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The EU has sent civilian observers to Armenia. For the mission to succeed it needs a flexible mandate, diplomatic support and resources
(IPS) The first unarmed civilian observers of a ground-breaking European Union mission have just arrived in Armenia to keep tabs on worsening tensions with Azerbaijan. They will patrol the border to ensure Brussels knows of any flareups immediately, giving it a better chance of intervening fast enough to keep the peace. The mission must tread carefully in an area that also hosts Russian military and border guards. To help it succeed, the EU must provide the mission full funding and as much freedom of manoeuvre as possible.
In theory, this deployment should significantly shorten the time it takes the EU or member states to react if any new fighting flares up at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The neighbours fought their last war in 2020 over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated region that declared independence from Azerbaijan, and since then their long state border has seen several clashes, each bloodier than the last.

7 February
What chance for genuine change in Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan is reeling from the aftershock of the largest and bloodiest unrest it has seen since independence. Without fundamental reform, protests will return.
Annette Bohr, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
(Chatham House) Virtually overnight, the international image of a prosperous and stable Kazakhstan became stained by anarchy, violence, and social inequality.
The multidimensional nature of the turbulence during ‘Bloody January’, which brought together peaceful protestors, marauding mobs, organized criminal groups, and an inter-elite power struggle, does not fit easily into any analytical template. The government of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is unlikely to engage in full disclosure regarding human rights violations and the identities of the perpetrators, given its disinformation tactics to date.
Having now consolidated his power, Tokayev faces even greater challenges. Can the process of ‘de-Nazarbayevication’ really dislodge corrupt elites in charge of lucrative sectors? And as Kazakhstanis increasingly demand an overhaul of the system to achieve greater social justice, is the leadership in a position to undertake cardinal reforms?
The key question now is what payback the Kremlin might exact from Kazakhstan in exchange for its assistance in keeping Tokayev’s regime afloat, and to what degree Kazakhstan’s leadership can succeed in pushing back.
High on a possible list of Russian demands are further integration within the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (in 2020 Kazakhstan rejected a Russian proposal to expand EEU cooperation); full alignment with Moscow in any stand-off between Russia and Ukraine, and recognition of the annexation of Crimea; specific guarantees for the use of the Russian language in Kazakhstan; and the adoption of ‘copycat’ legislation such as the Russian ‘foreign agent law’

9 January
Kazakhstan called for assistance. Why did Russia dispatch troops so quickly?
Preserving autocracies is a primary goal for regional organizations like the CSTO.
On Jan. 5, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreed to send troops to help the Kazakh government quell mounting political unrest. What had started as protests against a rise in fuel prices in the western city of Zhanaozen rapidly turned into broad demonstrations against government corruption and lack of reforms across Kazakhstan’s major cities, including the largest city of Almaty. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev blamed the protests on a “terrorist threat.”

2021

30 April
Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan ceasefire holding after day of intense fighting
Heaviest clashes in years between the two countries over disputed border leave 40 dead and 175 injured
A large part of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border remains unmarked, fuelling fierce disputes over water, land and pastures. Kyrgyz and Tajik delegations have held several rounds of talks in recent years but failed to end the border dispute.
The latest conflict erupted on Wednesday when Tajik officials attempted to mount surveillance cameras to monitor the water supply facility amid tensions over water distribution, and Kyrgyz residents opposed the move. The two sides began hurling stones at each other and troops quickly entered the fray.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are both members of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Russian foreign ministry on Friday voiced concern about the conflict and urged them to negotiate a lasting settlement.

2020

10 November
Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal brokered by Moscow prompts anger in Armenia
Crowds claim agreement with Azerbaijan to withdraw is a betrayal after fierce fighting over disputed enclave
(The Guardian) Russian peacekeepers have deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after Moscow brokered a peace deal that sparked celebrations in Azerbaijan and protests in Armenia, where demonstrators briefly occupied government buildings.
The truce, announced late on Monday night, calls for the deployment of nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to the disputed enclave, where Azerbaijan will receive significant territorial concessions from an Armenian-backed local government.

2019

27 November
Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition
A partial handover of political power through an orchestrated transition takes Kazakhstan into uncharted territory. Will it be able to pursue modernization and reform, and break from its authoritarian past?
Kazakhstan is at a turning point in its history. At face value, at least, Central Asia’s wealthiest state has embarked on a bold experiment following the March 2019 decision by its founding father and long-standing ruler, Nursultan Nazarbayev, to resign from the presidency and initiate a managed political succession. A generational transition of this nature, untried in other former Soviet republics, brings with it high stakes. As well as looking to secure his own legacy, having dominated the country since before independence in 1991, Nazarbayev seeks to ensure Kazakhstan does not depart from the course he has set, while safeguarding regime stability in the context of multiple and evolving domestic and international challenges. This is easier said than done.
The uncertainty around this project is substantial, especially considering a ‘rowback’ decree just seven months after Nazarbayev’s resignation, limiting the powers of his anointed successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. How long can Tokayev credibly remain president considering such a transparent undermining of his authority?

2011

Make a new plan, Stans
The biggest instability facing the region’s dictators is the lack of any mechanism to succeed them
(The Economist) FAR from being at the heart of a happening continent, for much of modern times Central Asia stagnated on the periphery. Now, 20 years after breaking from the Soviet Union, things are changing for the “Stans”. For one thing, huge and growing quantities of oil and gas are being uncovered. Seven-tenths of all the increase in oil output outside OPEC is coming from Central Asia. Led by Kazakhstan, an energy boom is under way.
Partly because of that, pipelines, roads and railways are reshaping the continent. A pipeline opened in 2009 that runs for 7,000km (4,400 miles) from gasfields in Turkmenistan to energy-hungry China. Railway plans are ambitious. China’s schemes would mean that by 2025 a Shanghai resident could reach his tailor in London’s Savile Row by train in two days.

19 December
OSCE discusses CA energy co-operation
The conference focused on pan-regional energy projects and their social and environmental management, according to an OSCE statement.
The OSCE Academy and the French embassy jointly organised the Regional/Transboundary Co-operation in Energy conference, which diplomats, members of international organisations and NGOs and local government officials attended.
Participants discussed topics such as “cross-border energy supply and the region’s energy deficits as well as current projects such as the Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity and Trade (CASA-1000) and the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India natural gas) pipeline,” according to the statement.

16 December
No Great Game: The Story of Post-Cold War Powers in Central Asia
(The Atlantic) This post is part of a 12-part series exploring how the U.S.-Russia relationship has shaped the world since the December 1991 end of the Soviet Union. Read the full series here.
On December 16, 2011, Kazakhstan will celebrate the 20th anniversary of its independence from the Soviet Union. It was the last country to politically separate itself from Russia in 1991, the final nail in the coffin of the seven-decade Soviet experiment. The year saw a wave of Soviet states pulling away from the Soviet Union, like the skins of an onion, until only Russia was left in the center.
Central Asia, a part of the world that has long been the subject of speculation, romantic adventure fantasies, and misinformation, suddenly found itself in the global spotlight. Kazakhstan possessed the world’s largest nuclear testing site in Semipalatinsk, dozens of nuclear weapons, a biological weapons research facility on Vozrozhdeniye Island in the dried-up Aral Sea, and huge reserves of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea. Turkmenistan, too, had some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas.
The U.S., though, seems destined to diminish in the region, even as Central Asia finally flirts with economic viability. Kazakhstan’s economy is thriving, Kyrgyzstan joined the WTO well before Russia, and Turkmenistan’s gas pipeline to China has brought it much-needed cash. Both Turkey and China are spending increasing amounts of money and energy to gain social, economic, and political footholds in the region, and Russia is looking for new ways to extend its “security umbrella” southward. The U.S. is trying to cement its position with the New Silk Road, a concept for regional trade that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is mentioning in speeches, but that project’s success seems far from certain.