Israel, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank 21 September 2025-

Israel, Middle East & Arab World
The Washington Institute

Why An “International Stabilization Force” for Gaza is Probably Doomed
Even if the UN authorizes it, no country wants to fight — or occupy — Gaza.
(Global Dispatches) For the past several weeks, the United States has been circulating drafts of a Security Council resolution meant to put into action a key part of President Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan: the deployment of an International Stabilization Force for Gaza.
The idea goes like this: troops from Arab or Muslim-majority countries would deploy to Gaza as Israeli forces pull back. In theory, the proposal makes sense. There’s a long history of international troops successfully stepping in after a conflict to help stabilize the peace. But in Gaza, there’s very little reason to think this force will actually deploy anytime soon — if ever.

6 November
Gaza peace plan: First step in a journey of a thousand miles
Former Israeli security service chief thinks the only path to lasting peace involves a two-state solution.
(Politico Eu) Ami Ayalon was one of Israel’s legendary gatekeepers — intelligence chiefs who’ve shouldered the daunting responsibility for the country’s security since the state’s founding, defending it against the odds from hostile Arab neighbors and militant Palestinian groups.
And he’s pessimistic about the prospects for Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
Ayalon became head of the Shin Bet security service after the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, having turned the job down just a few months before. He’s credited with reviving a then-demoralized agency and modernizing it. Under his leadership, Shabak — as Israelis call the security service by its acronym — had a high success rate in preventing militant attacks.
… he’s gloomy about the prospects of Trump’s plan, which “has more holes than Swiss cheese,” he told POLITICO.
The biggest hole not filled is a clear commitment to a two-state solution — the only path to a negotiated settlement, as far as Ayalon sees it. Lack of a sure political horizon for a Palestinian state will mean the withholding of the kind of cooperation he was able to secure from the Palestinian Authority, he explains. Peace will prove elusive.
Without Palestinians directly running Gaza in the meantime, as envisaged in the French-Saudi and Egyptian initiatives, the chances of Hamas disarming are negligible, he believes.
That’s also the position of Palestinian factions, including the Palestinian Authority. The future makeup of Gaza’s interim postwar government has been a sticking point in the talks about the Trump plan. Israel has insisted that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority should have any role in running postwar Gaza. But Muslim countries and Palestinian leaders want the Palestinian Authority to manage civilian affairs in the enclave.
Palestinian Authority officials warn that excluding Hamas totally risks the militant group wrecking the interim administration.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who has embraced the Gaza peace plan, last month called on the international community to “stop the Israeli government’s undermining of the Palestinian Authority and the two-state solution.”
He has also affirmed the readiness of institutions within the authority to assume administrative responsibility for Gaza and to link it with the West Bank, with Arab and international support and coordination.

1 November
‘We don’t feel safe’: after week of bombings, people in Gaza are losing faith in ceasefire
After initial enthusiasm, people fear ceasefire does not mean end to war but just less frequent, more unpredictable violence
(The Guardian) …The bombings were just the latest in a series of Israeli violations of the three-week-long ceasefire in Gaza. After the initial enthusiasm over the ceasefire announcement, worry has set in among the people of Gaza. They are fearful that the ceasefire does not mean an end to the war but just less frequent and more random bursts of violence they are unable to predict. That randomness makes their own futures hard to imagine, much less to plan.

30 October
The next stage of the Trump peace plan for Gaza is stalling
As fighting flares between Israel and Hamas, no one wants to pledge peacekeeping troops
(The Economist) Under the 20-point plan presented on September 29th by Donald Trump…Once a Palestinian technocratic government has been set up to oversee civilian matters and an International Stabilisation Force (isf) is deployed and begins disarming Hamas, Israel is to withdraw to a thinner buffer zone.
But this stage is proving tricky. Gaza’s neighbours, Israel and Egypt, are wrangling over the list of names to serve as “independent” technocrats. No country has yet formally pledged troops to the isf. For now, Hamas shows no sign of disarming.
Still on tenterhooks
While an agreement over the technocrats is expected soon, the future of the isf is far less certain. Turkey is said to be eager to send troops. Israel has, however, vetoed its participation, pointing to the virulently anti-Israel positions of Turkey’s government and its support for Hamas, whose leaders were often hosted in Ankara. …
29 October
Israeli Strikes in Gaza Kill at Least 100, Local Health Officials Say
After what appeared to be the deadliest day since a truce deal was agreed on this month, Israel said the cease-fire had resumed.
The strikes began late Tuesday after Israel’s government accused Hamas of violating the truce by failing to return the bodies of dead captives and by attacking Israeli forces in Rafah, southern Gaza. The Israeli military said one of its soldiers had been killed in the Rafah attack.
On Wednesday, the Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz, said “dozens of Hamas commanders” had been killed in the strikes.
The military said the cease-fire resumed at 10 a.m. local time. But on Wednesday evening, the Israeli military released a statement saying that it had attacked a weapon-storage site in northern Gaza. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

27 October
Can Trump Achieve Eternal Peace in Gaza?
Joschka Fischer
The United States is the only power that can succeed as a peacemaker in the Middle East; but that doesn’t mean the task will be easy. The question now is whether US President Donald Trump has the patience and stamina that brokering a lasting political resolution between Israelis and Palestinians requires.
(Project Syndicate) …the project of establishing what Trump calls “eternal” peace, still lies ahead. The situation demands bold political decisions on all sides – not just rhetorical gestures, but real changes on the ground – and these must come quickly. Moreover, a workable roadmap must be agreed if peace in the Middle East, or even conflict management, is to have any chance.
Peace will come only if the two peoples who each claim the same land are willing to reconcile. Are there majorities in Israel for that, or on the Palestinian side? Can Trump force both sides to stay the course, and will the US have the endurance to see it through? Without all parties committing to a lasting renunciation of violence and a return to mutual recognition of each other’s right to exist – in other words, a return to the Oslo Accords – there can be no peace. Is that possible with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has rejected a two-state solution? …

22 October
Can a UN-Backed International Security Force Rescue the Gaza Ceasefire?
(Global Dispatches) The ceasefire in Gaza is hanging by a thread. Israel has accused Hamas of slow-walking the return of the bodies of dead hostages, and Israel has threatened to suspend aid into the enclave. Hamas, meanwhile, killed two Israeli soldiers, and Israel responded with a deadly airstrike. There is now a race underway to mobilize an international security force for Gaza, comprised of troops from around the world, before the ceasefire unravels. To that end, the Security Council is deep into negotiations around authorizing this force. But even if the Council approves such a mission, will it actually deploy? Mark and Anjali have their doubts.

World Court says Israel must ensure basic needs in Gaza are met
(Reuters) – The United Nations’ top legal body, the International Court of Justice, on Wednesday said Israel has an obligation to ensure the basic needs of the civilian population in Gaza are met.
The panel of 11 judges added that Israel is forced to support the relief efforts provided by the United Nations in the Gaza strip and its entities, including UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

17 October
Who will govern Gaza now?
(GZERO media) Earlier this week, Hamas freed the remaining 20 living hostages who were held in Gaza, while Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners — the first step in their ceasefire deal. As Israeli troops pull back to the agreed-upon line inside Gaza, the next and perhaps most difficult phase begins: Hamas is expected to disarm, relinquish control, and make way for a two key elements of the transition: on the civilian side, a “temporary technocratic government”; and on the military side, an international security force to take Hamas’s place.
Sustaining the peace will require a confluence of factors: real Hamas disarmament; an effective interactional security force, most likely drawn from the Arab world; a civilian, technocratic Palestinian government; and the emergence of a clearer long-term governance plan for Gaza. There are many questions that will need to be addressed between here and there.
First, how strong is Hamas? The war decimated Hamas’s leadership and infrastructure. Many of its top commanders are dead or in hiding, and its political wing has been forced to the shadows. Inside Gaza, many civilians blame Hamas for provoking a war that left the territory in ruins. Meanwhile, clan militias and rival factions are trying to fill the power vacuum.
Will Hamas disarm?  Despite US and Israeli pressure, the group has shown a reluctance to disarm, fearing it amounts to political suicide. What Hamas may aim for instead is partial disarmament: giving up heavy rockets and tunnels while evolving its internal security wing into a police force. For Israel, given Hamas’s continued calls for the destruction of their state, keeping them in military power is a nonstarter.

13-15 October
Trump declares a new ‘dawn’ in Middle East. It could be a false one.
By Ishaan Tharoor with Sammy Westfall
With the victory lap over, now comes thorny issue of building a genuine peace.
(WaPo) The joy of the hostages’ friends and family members — and the palpable relief among many Palestinians in the war-blighted Gaza Strip that two years of agony and despair may be coming to an end — are rightly worth celebrating. But, as Trump resumed meetings in Washington on Tuesday, any belief in a new dawn is premature.
The Israeli military said it opened fire on Palestinians whom they accused of approaching troop positions, while Israel said it would slash the number of aid trucks allowed into the territory amid the phased release by Hamas of the remains of a number of deceased hostages. Some among Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition wanted to see the total defeat and disappearance of Hamas, but the faction endures, and has set about violently cracking down on local opponents in Gaza. No Israeli or Hamas officials attended the conference in Egypt.
The focus in Western circles remains on the future of Hamas and the demilitarization of its fighting force. Trump indicated Tuesday that the faction will be disarmed, even by force, if need be. Hamas officials fear Israel using the ceasefire as a mere pause before reviving its punishing campaign, and wanted guarantees in writing that Israel would not resume the war, according to my colleagues. Trump administration officials balked at the demand, but gave verbal assurances to regional intermediaries Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that Israel would relent.
Will Gaza Ceasefire Last? Trump’s Plan “Short on Details” Beyond Release of Captives
(Democracy Now) As President Trump celebrates his Gaza ceasefire deal, major questions remain over what happens next. Democracy Now! speaks with Khaled Elgindy, visiting scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, who breaks down the U.S.-backed peace plan. Though the document includes “vague statements” on how the peace process will unfold, Elgindy says it’s wise for “Palestinians to rebuild their national movement” at this time. At the same time, Israel has refused to release political leader Marwan Barghouti, who has spent decades in Israeli prison and is widely seen as a “unifying leader” who could bring all Palestinian factions together.
Trump Takes a Victory Lap, but Avoids Questions About What’s Next
Except for brief references, President Trump did not talk about what it would take to rebuild Gaza or the future of the Palestinian people.
(NYT) … [Trump] then traveled to Egypt, where dozens of world leaders awaited his arrival for a “peace summit” that offered the pomp and circumstance Mr. Trump is known to enjoy. Banners adorned with his face were dotted along the streets of a Red Sea resort.
“From the city of Sharm el-Sheikh, the will of the people meets the resolve of world leaders to end the war in Gaza,” President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt said. “They all carry a single message to mankind: Enough war. Welcome to peace.”
But at the Egypt summit, neither Israel nor Hamas were participants. And although the White House released what appeared to be a document signed by the countries that did attend, it did not commit the signatories to any specific action.
Planning under way for international force in Gaza, say US advisers
(Reuters) – Planning has begun for an international force to go into Gaza to stabilize security in the Palestinian enclave, two senior U.S. advisers said on Wednesday.
One of the top requirements of President Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan was formation of a U.S.-backed stabilization force. The United States has agreed to provide up to 200 troops to support the force without being deployed in Gaza itself.
“Right now what we’re looking to accomplish is just a basic stabilization of the situation. The international stabilization force is starting to be constructed,” one adviser said.
Among the countries the U.S. is speaking to about contributing to the force are Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar and Azerbaijan, said the adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The advisers said there were up to two dozen U.S. troops in the region to help set up the operation, serving in a “coordination, oversight” role.
“The goal is to use all the different local partners who want to help and be involved,” the adviser said.

How to End the War in Gaza for Good
by Dennis Ross
(Washington Institute) The momentum created by phase one of the peace plan will eventually fade, so the Trump administration must work quickly with its partners to present a clear understanding of its twenty points—including on complex issues like disarming Hamas and securing Gaza—and which actors will implement them.
Beyond the Pomp of Egypt Summit, Arab Leaders Brace for Tough Negotiations
The meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, could expedite an end to the Gaza war, but regional powers must still resolve the thorny details that have stymied negotiations.
When Mr. Trump jets away from the Middle East on Monday, after lightning stops in Israel and Egypt, regional powers will be left to resolve the thornier details — not least whether Hamas will disarm, and whether Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza.
Settling those issues will be critical to ensuring that Mr. Trump’s initial peace proposal, presented in September, leads to a sustainable end to the war, which has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians. The war was ignited by the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 250 abducted.
Arab diplomats regard this summit as an opportunity to persuade Mr. Trump to understand the concerns of regional countries, who he will rely on to ensure that the cease-fire deal holds.
Egypt, for instance, is crucial to carrying out Mr. Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which envisions the reopening of Gaza’s border with Egypt to allow in crucial aid, and an exit for those who seek it.
But Egypt does not want a huge influx of refugees across its borders. Egyptian officials have long feared such a mass flight of people, for a number of reasons.
For one, they do not want to be accused of helping Israel to displace Palestinians. But domestic security concerns are just as critical. If Hamas militants managed to cross the border with refugees, it could provoke an Israeli attack on Egyptian soil.
The Gulf countries will also want to be heard, with bilateral meetings expected on the summit’s sidelines.
Those countries are likely to play a leading role in bankrolling the rebuilding of Gaza, but they have been wary of comments made this week by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who said that the military campaign in Gaza was “not over.”
The Gulf countries fear a situation in which they are effectively funding Gaza’s reconstruction even as Israeli operations continue. …

9-10 October
The Real Reason Trump Forced Netanyahu’s Hand on a Gaza Ceasefire
By Fred Kaplan
(Slate) … Until recently, Netanyahu has thought he had Trump in his pocket—and with good reason. Early on in his second term, Trump told him that he should do whatever it takes to “finish” the war quickly. Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has publicly denied the existence of “occupied territories” and all but said Gaza and the West Bank should be ceded to Israel.
But then Netanyahu went too far. He dropped bombs on Hamas leaders while they were in Qatar, not realizing—or in any case underestimating—how closely allied Trump felt to the leaders of that small oil-rich emirate. Qatar has long served as an intermediary between Hamas and the rest of the world, an arrangement that was encouraged by the United States. The emirate also hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Finally, and more personally, the emir of Qatar gave Trump a $400 million jet to adapt as his new Air Force One. Also, the Israeli prime minister, usually so politically canny, overlooked that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s close friend and fellow real-estate tycoon who now serves as his Middle Eastern envoy, has long had business interests in Qatar.
In response to Netanyahu’s incursion, Trump signed an executive order declaring, unilaterally, that an armed attack on Qatar would be regarded “as a threat to the peace and security of the United States” and that, in the event of an attack, the U.S. “shall take all lawful and appropriate measures—including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military—to defend … Qatar and to restore peace and stability.”
While sitting together in the Oval Office, Trump made Netanyahu phone the Qatari emir to apologize for attacking his country and promising never to do it again. (Has Netanyahu ever apologized to an Arab for anything? I doubt it.) Then he made Netanyahu agree to sign the first phase of the peace deal—which, however limited, is very similar to accords that Netanyahu had refused to sign in the past.
Also, during the U.N. General Assembly, Trump met individually with other leaders from the region—the heads of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the Gulf states—and, among other things, promised them he would never let Israel annex the West Bank. Once they realized he really was pressuring Netanyahu, that a peace deal put on the table might stay on the table, that the Israeli prime minister wouldn’t pull out of the deal after they’d committed to it, they signed on as well.
The ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner exchange—again, a legitimate cause for congratulations all round—mark but the first phase of a peace plan that Trump put forth, incorporating just a few of the plan’s 20 planks. And the region has seen Phase 1 of several peace plans without ever witnessing Phases 2, 3, or beyond. Many have forgotten that, in November 2023, one month into the war, President Joe Biden secured a ceasefire deal that freed 100 Israeli hostages, almost half of those kidnapped in Hamas’ Oct. 7 raid. Biden hoped that the truce could be extended, but neither side was interested in ending the war, nor could either sides’ allies pressure them to do so.
Other planks in the current 20-point plan call on Hamas to disarm and relinquish political power, Israel to withdraw completely from Gaza, both sides to extend the truce indefinitely, a multinational board to secure and rebuild the devastated land, and the resumption of broader talks for a two-state solution to the long-standing Israel-Palestinian conflict.
These are all logical prerequisites to any sort of peace, much less the “eternal peace” that Trump has said his plan augurs. The parties to the first phase of the peace plan have not yet agreed to any of these planks. They have been relegated to subsequent phases. Getting agreement on the basic principles, much less nailing down the details, will make the first phase seem easy in retrospect.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians walk to Gaza City as Israel withdraws
Tens of thousands of Palestinians are walking back to Gaza City as the Israeli military begins its withdrawal from the area following the ceasefire agreement. Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum is there, watching what he described as ‘an endless tide of humans’.
Israeli PM Netanyahu thanks Trump and US team for ceasefire role (video)
(Al Jazeera) Israel’s government has approved “phase one” of the agreement, which will see captives exchanged and Israel withdraw from parts of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked President Trump and US officials for their role in ceasefire negotiations to end the war on Gaza.
How Jared Kushner, a Self-Described ‘Deal Guy,’ Helped Broker a Gaza Breakthrough
Trained in New York City real estate, the president’s son-in-law had a single goal: Get to a yes first, and hash out the details later. “It’s just different being deal guys — just a different sport,” he said.
(NYT) … On Thursday, Israel’s government approved the agreement, just after Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff addressed the Israeli cabinet and discussed the deal.
In his quest to end the Israel-Hamas war, Mr. Trump has not turned to longtime diplomats to get the job done. His advisers say he is not steeped in the details of what a long-term peace agreement would look like. Instead, he has relied on his son-in-law, Mr. Kushner, to step in and add momentum to the negotiations, which Mr. Witkoff [President Trump’s Middle East peace envoy] had been pursuing for months. …
Hamas and Israel prepare to implement ceasefire as Netanyahu says deal approved by government
Israel’s government ratified the ceasefire and hostage deal on Friday, clearing the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours
Hamas and Israel prepare to implement ceasefire as Netanyahu says deal approved by government
Israel’s government ratified the ceasefire and hostage deal on Friday, clearing the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours
Israelis and Palestinians celebrated on Thursday night as Hamas and Israel’s government began preparations to implement a ceasefire deal that promises a durable end to a bloody two-year conflict that has killed tens of thousands, destabilised much of the Middle East and prompted protests around the world.
In Gaza, there was joy but much anxiety. Many expressed the fear that the new deal would collapse, bringing more suffering to the devastated territory. Though crowds gathered in some places to dance and sing, in many places witnesses reported muted reaction amid loud overflights by warplanes and drones.
In Israel, on a day of fast-moving and sometimes chaotic developments, hospitals readied to receive hostages to be released by Hamas, the ruling coalition government signed off on the new ceasefire deal and thousands took to the streets of Tel Aviv to express joy and relief.
Late on Thursday evening, a statement from the government said it had “just approved the framework for the release of all the hostages – both the living and the deceased”.
Donald Trump’s announcement of his “peace proposal” last week triggered a frantic round of indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm-el Sheikh.
The US president said on Thursday he would try to go to Egypt for the signing of the new deal. In Israel, officials suggested that the US president was expected to visit there on Sunday.
World leaders scrambled to welcome the breakthrough, even if most of Trump’s broader “peace proposal” has yet to be negotiated or even explicitly acknowledged by Hamas and Israel. The US president told reporters in the Oval Office that nobody would be forced to leave Gaza under the terms of the deal. “No, it’s just the opposite,” he said. “This is a great plan.”
There was some confusion during Thursday on the timing of the first phase of the deal – reflecting the general uncertainty about many of its main principles.
Israel’s forces would withdraw to an agreed line in the Gaza Strip that would leave them in control of 53% of the territory, a spokesperson for the Israeli government said.
In exchange, Israel will free about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, but the spokesperson said Marwan Barghouti, a senior figure in Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement who is hugely popular in the West Bank and Gaza and has frequently been talked of as a future leader, would not be among them. Hamas sources said the list of released prisoners was still being discussed late on Thursday.
Hamas called on Trump and guarantor states to ensure Israel fully implemented the ceasefire.
The exiled Gaza chief Khalil Al-Hayya said on Thursday the group has received guarantees from the United States, Arab mediators and Turkey that the war on Gaza has permanently ended, according to Reuters.
UN agencies said they were ready to rush aid into Gaza, where a famine was declared by experts in August.
Hamas is demanding the release of a prominent Palestinian prisoner. This could be a red line for Israel
(CNN) As far as politicians go, few have earned as much respect among Palestinians as Marwan Barghouti, the most prominent Palestinian prisoner who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli jail.
The former West Bank leader of the Fatah party is by far the most popular political figure in the occupied Palestinian territories, even though an entire generation of Palestinians was born after he was incarcerated more than two decades ago.
Some have described him as the Palestinian Nelson Mandela, a long-time jailed leader they believe can lead them to freedom.

Give Trump the Nobel for Gaza, if He Does the Harder Parts to Come
Thomas Friedman
…this is just the first stage of a multistage plan. So if Trump owns this early part, has his name on it and wins accolades for bringing it off, it should ensure that he remains engaged to push through the later stages of his peace plan. They are much harder and — I cannot stress this enough — they will require Trump staying fully engaged. Mr. President, you may not be interested in Palestinian or Jewish history, but they are now both very interested in you.
… I worry that Trump does not fully respect the complexity of the task his administration has taken on with the plan that will bear his name. We are talking about full-scale nation-building in Gaza, which is almost completely destroyed, yet still home to some two million uprooted people. With a national security team that is now woefully small, Trump will have to oversee the disarmament of Hamas, the recruitment and development of a multinational security force to fill the vacuum created when Israel withdraws, the rebuilding of Gaza from scratch and the forging of a transitional government to run the place. And it will all be done under the eye of an Israeli government that is deeply suspicious that Hamas will regroup.

Trump’s Mideast Deal Is Just the Beginning of His Role
by Robert Satloff
(The Washington Institute) Executing the president’s ambitious plan will require an army of experts in areas ranging from military command-and-control to community engagement and rehabilitation. … Despite coming to office eager to shed America’s Middle East commitments, Trump just took on a huge one: responsibility for a peace plan that will forever bear his name. On Oct. 6, 2023, the day before Hamas’ assault, Arab-Israeli relations were poised for the historic breakthrough of Saudi-Israel normalization; two years later, Arab-Israeli relations—including Trump’s first-term Middle East peacemaking achievement of the Abraham Accords—are hanging on by a thread. By offering a plan that promises not just an end to fighting in Gaza but building a full and enduring regional peace, the president has taken on the task of repairing the damage wrought by Hamas’ unholy war. In other words: fixing the Middle East.
How Trump fulfills this not inconsequential responsibility has major consequences for America’s role in the region and in the world.
The Chinese are watching whether, when the going gets rough, he will have the mettle to maintain a broad alliance. The Russians are watching whether the president will strictly enforce the letter of the deal or let certain unpleasant aspects slip. The Iranians will be watching whether Trump will find himself so drowning in the details of Gaza reconstruction that he won’t be able to stitch together a repeat of the highly successful Arab-Israeli coalition that protected Israel a year ago from Iran’s barrages of ballistic missiles and drones. And all these adversaries—and others—will wonder whether the intense U.S. focus needed to ensure implementation of this deal will distract the president from their own areas of mischief. …

8 October

Israel and Hamas agree to part of Trump’s Gaza peace plan, will free hostages and prisoners

(AP) — Israel and Hamas agreed Wednesday to pause fighting in Gaza so that the remaining hostages there can be freed in the coming days in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, accepting elements of a plan put forward by the Trump administration that would represent the biggest breakthrough in months in the devastating two-year-old war.
“This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace,” President Donald Trump wrote on social media in trumpeting the agreement. “All Parties will be treated fairly!”
Israel and Hamas separately confirmed the contours of their deal, which drew celebratory gatherings from hostage families in Tel Aviv and cautious optimism from some in Gaza. Hamas intends to release all 20 living hostages in a matter of days, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss details of an agreement that has not fully been made public.
With Mideast Deal, Trump Is on the Brink of a Major Diplomatic Accomplishment
For President Trump, success in brokering a cease-fire is the ultimate test of his self-described goal as a deal maker and a peacemaker.
David Sanger
(NYT) … Much could go wrong in coming days, and in the Middle East it often does. The “peace” deal Mr. Trump heralded on Truth Social on Wednesday evening may look more like another temporary pause in a war that started long before Israel’s founding in 1948, and has never ended.
But if Mr. Trump can hold this deal together, if Hamas gives up its last 20 living hostages this weekend and with them its negotiating leverage, that would be an extraordinary step toward the kind of peace plan Mr. Trump, and his predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr., have pressed to accomplish, despite many diversions down dark holes. And if Mr. Trump can get Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Gaza City and give up on his plan to take control of the shattered remains of Gaza, if he can stop the carnage that has killed 1,200 people in Israel and more than 60,000 Palestinians, he will have done what many before him tried: outmaneuvered a difficult and now isolated ally. …

7 October
Analysis: 2 years into the war in Gaza, there is still no clear way out
Two years after Hamas’ attack ignited the war in the Gaza Strip, the militant group is weakened but not defeated, Israel has clobbered its enemies across the region but failed to achieve its main goals, and no one knows how it all will end.
(AP) The Oct. 7, 2023, attack, the deadliest on Israeli soil, sparked one of the most devastating military campaigns since World War II, leaving tens of thousands of Palestinians dead, flattening vast areas of the blockaded territory and triggering a famine in parts.
It sent ripples across the region, bringing Israel into combat with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, as well as militant groups in Iraq and Syria, and their patron, Iran, which suffered major losses in a 12-day war launched by Israel earlier this year.
Through it all, Hamas has held onto hostages — it still has 48, around 20 of whom Israel believes are alive — and maintained influence in the dwindling areas of Gaza that haven’t been destroyed and largely depopulated.
A new round of ceasefire talks began this week based on a peace plan advanced by U.S. President Donald Trump. But so far, two U.S. administrations have failed to end the fighting while providing crucial support for an increasingly isolated and internally divided Israel.

6 October
Gaza Peace Talks Take Place Just Ahead of 2nd Anniversary of Oct. 7
As Israelis brace for a day of mourning and commemoration, negotiators for Israel and Hamas met with mediators in Egypt to hash out an end to the war.
(NYT) As Israel prepared to mourn on the second anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack, talks to end the devastating war in Gaza were expected to continue on Tuesday in Egypt, with the focus on a hostages-for-prisoners swap proposed by the Trump administration.
The grim anniversary falls on Sukkot, a Jewish harvest festival. Most businesses across Israel will be closed for the holiday and the government has delayed formal commemorations until later this month. As a consequence, the mood is expected to be subdued.

2 October
Israel intercepts almost all flotilla vessels trying to reach Gaza
(The World) Israeli naval forces boarded most of the vessels in a flotilla attempting to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza on Thursday and detained dozens aboard, including European lawmakers, drawing widespread condemnation. The Global Sumud Flotilla was the largest yet to try to break the blockade, and it comes at a time of growing criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, where its offensive has laid waste to wide swaths of territory and killed tens of thousands of people. Activists said they hoped that the sheer number of boats would make it more difficult for Israeli authorities to intercept them all — but Israel’s Foreign Ministry declared the operation over on Thursday afternoon. Supporters of the flotilla took to the streets in several major cities late Wednesday, after news of the interception broke — including in Rome; Istanbul; Athens, Greece and Buenos Aires, Argentina — to decry the Israeli operation and the ongoing offensive in the Gaza Strip. More protests were expected Thursday, and Italy’s largest union called for a one-day general strike on Friday. The flotilla, which started out with more than 40 boats and nearly 450 activists, was carrying a symbolic amount of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Its main goal, they said, remained “to break Israel’s illegal siege and end the ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people.”

1 October
Trump, the UN, and Peace in the Middle East
Jeremy Kinsman
(Policy) During the UNGA, the [Trump peace plan] proposal was circulated secretly to various delegations, so in that respect the global organization played the role of a passive host. But it was not engaged in the active diplomacy beforehand, a sign of the US/Israeli disregard for its worth, and of its fractious history with Israel, including over the role of UNWRA in providing socioeconomic infrastructure for Palestinians. … If all concerned agree, the accord could set a foundation for a wider Mideast peace at last, though Netanyahu continues to resist the creation of a Palestinian state. The supervisory “Board of Peace” will be chaired by President Trump, and will include Netanyahu and former Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Blair’s inclusion is in line with the work he did after he stepped down as PM in 2007. He served as special envoy for the “Quartet” Group of the UN, EU, Russia, and the US charged with finding Israeli-Palestinian and wider peace regional solutions. He stepped down after 8 years with little to show for the effort. Still hanging over him is the damning legacy of his promotion along with President George W. Bush of the catastrophic invasion of Iraq in 2003 that ultimately made a wide swath of the Middle East a failed region.
It is consistent with both its long-fraught relationship with Israel and its recent marginalization from conflict resolution more broadly that UN offices have been sidelined from these latest negotiations. Although, in the prelude to the deal, the great majority of UN members, including most Arab neighbours, voted in favour of a French-Saudi General Assembly Resolution that foresaw most of the US-Israeli proposition.

Israel orders Palestinians to leave Gaza City, saying those who stay will be considered militants
(AP) — Israel’s defense minister on Wednesday ordered all remaining Palestinians to leave Gaza City, saying it was their “last opportunity” and that anyone who stayed would be considered a militant supporter and face the “full force” of Israel’s latest offensive.
At least 21 Palestinians were killed across the territory, according to local hospitals, as Hamas weighed a new proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at ending the war and returning the remaining captives taken in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered it.
A senior Hamas official told The Associated Press that there are some points in the proposal that are unacceptable and must be amended, without elaborating. He said the official response will only come after consultations with other Palestinian factions.
Around 400,000 Palestinians have fled famine-stricken Gaza City since Israel launched a major offensive last month aimed at occupying it, but hundreds of thousands remain, many because they cannot afford to leave or are too weak to make the journey to tent camps in the south.

30 September
Trump’s Gaza Plan Holds Out Brittle Chance of Peace
It gives enough assurances for Turkey and Qatar to fall into line with key Gulf powerbrokers, although hurdles lie ahead.
(Bloomberg) Of all the reactions to President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, those from Qatar and Turkey may prove most consequential.
The blueprint includes the familiar demand that Hamas release hostages and surrender or face the full force of the Israeli military. But it also involves an offer of amnesty to any Hamas operative who hands over weapons and a vast increase in aid and global involvement to rebuild the devastated enclave.
It states that Israel won’t occupy or annex the territory, and walks back Trump’s “riviera” proposal to resettle Gazans.
That gives Doha and Ankara — longtime Hamas interlocutors — cover to lean hard on the movement while claiming to safeguard Palestinian lives. Qatar has already banked an apology for Israel’s attack on its capital. Turkey likely sees a means to entrench its influence in Syria.
Those calculations bring the two countries into line with crucial Gulf powerbrokers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
While Saudi officials publicly insist on Palestinian statehood and a role for the Palestinian Authority, in private the country’s leaders believe an end to the war would stabilize their neighborhood and bolster a push for economic modernization.
… Still, even under Qatari-Turkish pressure, Hamas must accept terms it has long rejected. The plan is vague on key details, including how an external “board” overseeing Gaza’s governance could generate legitimacy on the ground.

Israel-backed militia groups potentially threaten new peace plan for Gaza
Israeli military has been arming alternatives to Hamas, with up to a dozen new groups emerging
(The Guardian) Armed militia and gangs supported by Israel are seizing control of parts of Gaza, exacerbating its humanitarian crisis and potentially threatening any efforts to bring order if Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza takes hold.
The Israeli military and security services have for several months been arming and training groups in Gaza as local auxiliary forces and as an alternative to Hamas, but the strategy appears to have gathered momentum in recent weeks.
The so-called Popular Forces under a commander called Yasser abu Shabab have been operating in the south of the territory for several months, coordinating closely with Israeli forces around controversial aid distributions sites run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an opaque US- and Israel-backed private organisation.
Now up to a dozen new militias have emerged across much of Gaza, in addition to the Popular Forces.
With New U.S. Proposal to End Gaza War, a Rare Moment of Triumph for Netanyahu
(NYT) In President Trump’s plan, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu got almost everything he hoped for in the end, despite mounting international isolation.

29 September
What’s in Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza?
Plan calls for immediate end to war between Israel and Hamas but lacks detail on how key points will be executed
The White House peace plan for Gaza proposes an immediate end to the devastating war between Israel and Hamas that has raged in the coastal territory for nearly two years, while pointedly excluding the Palestinian militant group from any future governing role.
Assuming both sides agree to a detailed list of conditions, the end of fighting will be accompanied by the release of all Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, “within 72 hours” of Israel publicly accepting the deal.
In return for the release of hostages, Israel would release 250 Palestinians currently serving life sentences and 1,700 Palestinians in Gaza detained since the conflict started on 7 October 2023 after Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Palestinians.
Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan in full
(BBC) Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza has been accepted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Hamas is yet to issue an official response.
Here is the full text of the proposal, as provided by the White House:
1. Gaza will be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours.
2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough. …
9. Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. …

25 September
‘Palestinians will not leave,’ their president tells world leaders at UN in defiant, virtual speech
(AP) — Speaking over video after the United States denied his visa, the Palestinian leader told world leaders Thursday that his people reject the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and pledged that the militant group would have no role in governing the Gaza Strip after war ends and must hand over its weapons to his administration. Said Mahmoud Abbas to his people: “The dawn of freedom will emerge.”
Abbas told the U.N. General Assembly that Palestinians in Gaza “have been facing a war of genocide, destruction, starvation and displacement” by Israel. His speech came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to New York to give his own address in person on Friday.
In a short but resolute speech, Abbas laid out his continued vision for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza alongside Israel. That two-state solution has gained traction after a string of countries – including top U.S. allies — announced recognition of a Palestinian state this past week.

21-22 September
France recognises Palestine and calls for UN force in Gaza
Macron sets out plan for international stabilisation mission as Arab and Muslim leaders prepare to meet Trump in New York
Emmanuel Macron has announced France’s official recognition of the State of Palestine, setting out a plan for a UN-mandated international stabilisation force in postwar Gaza that is expected to find support in many countries but not in Israel or the US.
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, called for a state of Palestine to be a full member of the UN, telling the general assembly: “This conference marks a milestone but it’s not the end of the road. It’s only the beginning.”
Meanwhile, Arab and Muslim leaders are set to meet Donald Trump in New York to discuss their separate plan for a stabilisation force in Gaza as France joined the UK, Canada and Australia in recognising Palestine as a state.
The recognition of Palestine by France and five other states played out in dramatic fashion later on the floor of the UN general assembly as France and Saudi Arabia co-chaired a summit to discuss the future of a two-state solution, a road map to peace that Benjamin Netanyahu has declared a dead-end.
On Monday night Monaco, Belgium, Andorra, Malta and Luxembourg all recognised Palestine, bringing the total number of recognitions to three-quarters of UN membership.
France has said the plan for a stabilisation force would marginalise Hamas by disarming the group and excluding it from power.
The proposal includes a UN-mandated force to provide security in Gaza as well as oversee the disarmament of Hamas and help train a PA police force.
UK recognises state of Palestine to ‘keep alive’ the possibility of peace
Keir Starmer says announcement shows government’s hopes for a secure Israel alongside a viable Palestine
The UK has formally recognised Palestine as an independent state, Keir Starmer has said, in a deeply symbolic announcement that the government hopes will show its commitment to peace in the region and ease domestic political tensions.
In a sign of the global concern over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Canada and Australia also made their own formal declarations recognising Palestine on Sunday ahead of a conference of the UN general assembly in New York.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, immediately condemned the announcement – which the UK sees as a lever to push for a lasting settlement to end the illegal occupation of Palestine – calling it “absurd” and “a reward for terrorism”.