Wednesday Night # 2275

Breaking news: Carney to lay out budget priorities in [Wednesday] evening speech to students
A source familiar with the Prime Minister’s speech told The Globe and Mail that Mr. Carney’s budget-focused speech will pledge to significantly increase non-U.S. exports over the next decade, and will state that the budget will include Canada’s new immigration plan and a talent-attraction strategy. It will also include details about a new “Climate Competitiveness Strategy” and restate the government’s plan to “spend less to invest more.”
U.S.-Canada trade deal could be ready for approval at APEC summit, sources say
A trade deal on steel, aluminum and energy could be ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month, two sources say.
The bad news is the sources say the Americans are not ready to make any deal on automobiles or softwood lumber.
Mark Carney on Dealing With Trump, Trade Wars and Putin | The Mishal Husain Show (See Long reads/videos below)
Trade battles, the war in Ukraine, negotiating with President Trump – Canada is at the forefront of so many of the different currents in the world right now. That’s the reality that Mark Carney stepped into seven months ago when he became Prime Minister.
Finally, an inevitable bump in the road as the AG  has released a highly critical report regarding the CRA: A steep decline in the CRA’s service levels over the past three fiscal years was closely correlated with staffing reductions at its call centres across the country, the audit found. The watchdog also criticized the CRA for putting little emphasis on the accuracy of answers given by its agents when evaluating their performance.

Trump 2.0
By any measure No Kings 2 on Saturday the 18^th was a success and the Trumpsters are working hard to ridicule the participants and the message.

The Americas
As Trump continues his war on vessels in the Caribbean which he claims are carrying fentanyl , records and interviews with 20 people familiar with the route or the strikes, including current and former U.S. and international officials, contradict the administration’s claims (See Long reads Officials, locals undercut Trump claims about Venezuela drug boats) and UN experts say US strikes against Venezuela in international waters amount to ‘extrajudicial executions’
Doug arrives home on Wednesday, and we look forward to hearing next week his impressions of Peru, its rich cultural and historic heritage and the contrasting turmoil they witnessed which has now culminated in the new president’s declaration of a 30-day state of emergency in Lima to tackle rising crime

Global Economy
The annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF have concluded. Highlights include:
Jobs, Agriculture, and Economic Growth
With more than a billion young people expected to reach working age over the next decade, the need to create enough jobs—and opportunities—is more urgent than ever. Jobs are the most reliable route out of poverty, offering not just a paycheck but also self-sufficiency, dignity, and hope for the future.
That’s why creating jobs—millions of jobs—was at the heart of the Meetings.
What about education of the youth so they can fill those jobs?

China governance
20-23 October the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is holding its annual plenum in Beijing. The meeting will focus on outlining the CCP’s next five-year plan, which the National People’s Congress—China’s rubber-stamp legislature—will approve in March 2026. Brookings (Purges, personnel, and policy: a primer on China’s Fourth Plenum) and GZERO (Everything you need to know about China’s next 5-year plan) offer analysesand conclude that Beijing wants to develop dominance over 21st century technologies, as its economy struggles with the burgeoning US trade war, a slow-boil real-estate crisis, and weak consumer demand.
The plan will set the government’s priorities for the industries and policies it will prioritize over the next five years.
Brahma Chellaney writes in Xi’s Purges Reveal His Insecurity
From surveilling and repressing Chinese citizens to firing and prosecuting potential rivals, Chinese President Xi Jinping seems able to rule only through fear. But fear is not a foundation for long-term stability, and the more Xi seeks to consolidate power, the more vulnerable his position becomes.
All of which makes Xi different from other autocrats only in terms of numbers.

Putin’s War
Plans for Trump-Putin talks in Budapest shelved
White House says there are now no plans for summit ‘in the immediate future’ as latest efforts to end Ukraine war falter
Sergei Guriev, Dean and Professor of Economics at London Business School, writes in Putin’s Polycrisis “Despite…multiple challenges, Putin seems undeterred. That is because the situation is not yet catastrophic.{ and continues “Only by strengthening technological, economic, and financial sanctions against the Kremlin, providing advanced weapons to Ukraine, and incentivizing the Russian brain drain can Western policymakers accelerate the demise of Putin’s war machine, freeze the frontline, and save Ukrainian lives.”

U.S. – Israel/Gaza
And what about the Gaza ceasefire?
Why Gaza’s “eternal” ceasefire is holding—for now
…the long-term future of the ceasefire is uncertain. Mr Trump’s plan calls for a multinational peacekeeping force that will take charge of security in Gaza. A few countries have expressed interest in joining, but none has made a firm commitment yet. Several diplomats in the region say the violence in Rafah will reinforce fears among Arab leaders, who worry about a political backlash at home should their troops wind up in a shootout with Palestinians.
Even if pledges do materialise, it will probably take several months to field the force. There is little chance of disarming Hamas until then, nor will the IDF carry out further withdrawals. Hamas will use that time to consolidate power in Gaza by killing and torturing rivals (it has already executed dozens). There will be no return to all-out war—but it will hardly be eternal peace
Israel’s parliament gives initial nod to occupied West Bank annexation
West Bank bill would require lengthy legislative process to pass
Second bill proposes annexation of Maale Adumim settlement
Hamas condemns Israeli votes as ‘ugly face’ of occupation
The ‘enormous conflict of interest’ at centre of Jared Kushner’s Gaza ceasefire deal
“Of course there’s an enormous conflict of interest here,” said Matt Duss, the executive vice-president at the Center for International Policy, who described the influence-peddling in the administration as open corruption.
But, he added: “Part of what’s bizarre is that the Trump organisation is so deeply leveraged in the Middle East that the corruption could sustain the ceasefire. Because they all stand to make so much money there is an interest and an incentive to kind of stop the war.”
JD Vance’s press conference on the Gaza ceasefire
US Vice President JD Vance tried to soothe fears that the ceasefire signed by Israel and Hamas was under strain, telling a press conference in southern Israel Tuesday that the truce was going better than he had anticipated.
Vance tried to downplay any idea that his visit was urgently arranged to keep the ceasefire in place.

Quebec
Every municipality in Quebec has its election on the first Sunday in November. This means 1,131 cities, towns, and villages, and 87 regions will go to the polls on Nov. 2.
After casting a glancing blow at the Montreal elections and the apathy of electors throughout the province, Andrew Caddell‘s column Setting the stage for Quebec’s fall election season is a virtual ode to his beloved Kamouraska, “thought to be the most beautiful village in Quebec, and possibly Canada”.
He fails to mention the hotly contested race in Westmount where our good friend Lynne Casgrain is one of three candidates for the Mayor’s chair -and in our opinion, the most qualified. The Candidates Debate on Thursday will no doubt be a salle comble event and we are hoping for a good turnout on Election Day.
Meanwhile, the results of a new poll conducted for La Presse show 74 per cent of Quebecers want Legault to leave office.
Doug is anxious to talk about voters’ resistance to sovereignty not to mention the Quebec Constitution proposal, but, not tonight, dear, he has just landed (we hope)

Congratulations to Kyle Matthews, Marie Lamensch and their colleagues of MIGS (Montreal Institute for Global Security) on the success of the Montreal International Security Summit where global leaders, policy shapers, tech innovators and security experts gathered to discuss, debate, and attempt to resolve issues arising from this year’s theme “Authoritarian Resurgence: The Fight for Democracy and Global Security”.

Varia
The reason this piece is important is that it comes from the ultraconservative Washington Times
‘He lost us’: Generals, senior officers say trust in Hegseth has evaporated
Secretary’s critics worry Pentagon at risk of enduring damage amid firings, resignations and early retirements of high-ranking staff

Lupin is alive and well – recently in Paris
Louvre heist losses put at almost €90m as museum’s head prepares to face MPs
Police continue to search for the criminal gang behind the brazen robbery targeting France’s crown jewels
How the Louvre museum robbery happened in video, photographs and maps
Eight pieces stolen, but crown of Napoleon III’s wife dropped by the fleeing thieves
Mona Lisa to the Nazis: Robbed often, why latest Louvre theft is different
Experts say jewels stolen in heists from the iconic Parisian museum are harder to recover than stolen paintings, as they can be quickly broken down.
Nova Scotia grants Crown land lease for would-be whale sanctuary
Finally, good news for some of the Ontario Marineland Belugas: Nova Scotia just approved Canada’s first seaside whale sanctuary—a safe ocean home where rescued whales can live in peace. Still a way to go, but With approvals in place, the sanctuary can start netting off a cove in Port Hilford Bay, Nova Scotia, and could open as soon as next summer.
Trump diplomacy at its finest
Trump has awkward exchange with Australian ambassador during bilateral meeting: ‘I don’t like you either’
After an Australian reporter asked Trump if he had any concerns with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s administration, including Rudd’s past comments about him, Trump said “I don’t know anything about him,” apparently not realizing that Rudd was in the room.
Grit your teeth before reading
White House says it will submit ballroom plans for review, with demolition already under way
Demolition crews began tearing down part of the White House’s storied East Wing on Monday to begin building President Trump’s ballroom, a project he had said would not interfere with the existing landmark. The National Trust for Historic Preservation on Tuesday asked the Trump administration to pause the demolition until the planning commission review was completed. Its letter expressed concern that the proposed 90,000 square foot ballroom “will overwhelm the White House itself.” The White House is 55,000 square feet.

Long reads/videos
Peter Frise recommends
Ian Bremmer: State of the World 2025 (video)
Ian Bremmer took the stage in Tokyo for his annual “State of the World” address on October 21, outlining the major geopolitical turns of 2025 and previewing what comes next. In a year defined by a deepening G‑Zero world, Ian discusses global uncertainty driven by the unpredictable and increasingly unreliable United States, the dynamic emerging in US‑China relations, the nascent American “political revolution,” and the “defense first, hedge second” strategies adopted by US allies.

Mark Carney on Dealing With Trump, Trade Wars and Putin | The Mishal Husain Show
In this first episode of The Mishal Husain Show, Carney talks about being on the frontlines of the tariff war, Putin’s miscalculations and what it’s like to deal with a president who wants your country to be the 51st state?
NB You can find the written version of this interview with Mishal’s notes on Bloomberg Weekend: https://www.bloomberg.com/latest/week…

Officials, locals undercut Trump claims about Venezuela drug boats
Most of the South American cocaine bound for North America flows through the Pacific, but some does depart Venezuela through the Caribbean, according to U.S. officials and analysts who track drug routes.

What Finland could teach Ukraine about war and peace
President Alexander Stubb argues Ukraine can repeat Finland’s success

‘Smash, grab, melt it down’: how material value likely motivated the Louvre heist
Experts say thieves would struggle to find a buyer if the stolen goods remained intact

Jamelle Bouie: There’s a Reason Trump Fears No Kings
Trump needs division to fuel his autocratic plans and make his royal dream a reality. For this reason, he is working as hard as possible to divide this country against itself. But if we can take any sign from the public’s escalating response to this madness, it is that Trump just may, in the end, remind Americans of the vital power of acting together in solidarity with each other.