U.S. Government & governance: Shutdown 2025

13 November
The unprecedented government shutdown will weigh on a US economy already under stress

12 November UPDATE
Congress narrowly clears a bill to end the nation’s longest shutdown.
The House on Wednesday gave final passage to a spending package to reopen the government, sending the legislation to President Trump’s desk and all but guaranteeing an end to the longest shutdown in the nation’s history.
(NYT)  The 222-to-209 vote came on Day 43 of the shutdown and days after eight senators in the Democratic caucus broke their own party’s blockade and joined Republicans in allowing the spending measure to move forward, prompting a bitter backlash in their ranks. It was the first time the House had held a vote in nearly two months, as it took an extended recess during the shutdown.
Asked if he would guarantee a vote on an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire this year, Speaker Mike Johnson said that “the Republicans would demand a lot of reforms before anything like that was ever possible.”
Only two Republicans, Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Greg Steube of Florida, broke ranks and voted against the bill to reopen the government. Steube said he opposed the legislation because of a provision the Senate quietly added at the last minute that created a wide legal avenue for eight Republican senators to sue the U.S. government for as much as half a million dollars each.
[Spending Bill Would Pave Way for Senators to Sue Over Phone Searches A spending package expected to be approved as part of a deal to reopen the government would create a wide legal avenue for senators to sue for as much as half a million dollars each when federal investigators search their phone records without notifying them.The provision, tucked into a measure to fund the legislative branch, appears to immediately allow for eight G.O.P. senators to sue the government over their phone records being seized in the course of the investigation by Jack Smith, the former special counsel, into the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.]

12 November
The Shutdown Is Near an End. When Will Things Get Back to Normal?
Some programs like SNAP could be restored within hours, while other effects could take longer to unravel.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is poised to end, but it will take some time for the programs and people who were affected by the six-week funding freeze to recover.
Furloughed federal employees will have to come back to work, including those responsible for processing payments to programs that are dependent on government dollars. Industries like the airline and hospitality sectors, which felt the punch of the government’s spending lapse, might need even more time to regain their footing. And the rest of the economy that felt the domino effect of the shutdown may feel the impact for some time.
Here are some of the ways the United States has to recover from the shutdown, and how long that may take after the government officially reopens.
Federal law requires that federal workers whose paychecks were paused during the shutdown be made whole. In the past, it has taken about a week for unpaid workers to receive back pay, though the Office of Personnel Management said it varies by agency.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said that air traffic controllers will receive the first 70 percent of their back pay within 24 to 48 hours of the shutdown ending, but it is not clear if other parts of the government will be on a similar schedule.
It is also unclear if some departments will take longer to make workers whole, because of increased vacancies in agency payroll offices as a result of the Trump administration’s downsizing efforts. In the past, the back pay arrived in one check, a lump sum much higher than what employees would have received if they were paid on a normal schedule. Because of that, many will be taxed at a higher rate, an issue they will have to sort out with the Internal Revenue Service during tax season next year.
When will food stamp benefits be fully restored?
Though the Trump administration fought efforts to force them to use contingency funds to pay out benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, during the shutdown, a spokeswoman for the White House’s budget office insisted this week that beneficiaries will see their accounts fully restored within hours of the federal government reopening.
About one in eight Americans — 42 million people — rely on SNAP benefits for help in purchasing groceries.

House to vote on reopening government after 7-week recess
The measure is expected to narrowly pass in the GOP-controlled chamber. Approval would send it to the president’s desk for his signature.
(WaPo) The longest government shutdown in U.S. history was nearing an end Wednesday, as House members returned to Washington to vote on a bill to reopen federal agencies.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had kept the chamber out of session since Sept. 19 in an attempt to pressure the Senate to agree to a GOP funding extension, which Senate Democrats repeatedly rejected for weeks.
Lawmakers plan to vote Wednesday [Nov 12] evening on a new deal brokered among Senate Republicans, seven Senate Democrats and one independent that passed the upper chamber Monday night.
The bill, which passed the Senate on Monday and has President Trump’s support, has sizable momentum on Day 43 of the shutdown, and its approval by the House would clear it for Mr. Trump’s signature. But Republicans’ narrow margin of control and strong opposition from most Democrats are likely to make for an uncomfortably close vote.
It comes as the House crawls back to life with an agenda that is much the same as it was when the chamber last convened on Sept. 19, and Republicans passed a plan to temporarily fund the government. Then, Speaker Mike Johnson called an indefinite recess, arguing that there was no reason for the House to meet until Senate Democrats accepted his party’s proposal.
For weeks, the House lay mostly dormant, with no legislation considered, no hearings held and no debate on the floor. While the representatives went on break — one they have been quick to frame as working from home rather than a nearly two-month vacation — hundreds of thousands of federal workers went without pay, millions of low-income Americans wondered whether they would receive food assistance and exasperated air travelers dealt with disruptions.

11 November
As Shutdown Nears End, Trump Still Confronts Soaring Health Costs
The central issue of the government closure remains unresolved, leaving Republicans under political pressure ahead of the midterms.
Millions of Americans who will lose access to subsidies when the current formula expires are looking at a jump in premiums, in many cases hundreds of dollars a month.
(NYT) The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is coming to an end, but the central issue that caused it — the staggering cost of health care — isn’t going away anytime soon. It will continue to bedevil President Trump, especially as the midterm elections draw closer.
The burden is now on Mr. Trump and Republicans to bring down costs or risk peril in the those elections, after a splinter group of Democrats agreed to end the shutdown by dropping their party’s demand to extend certain health insurance subsidies. Despite repeated promises to offer an alternative to Obamacare, Mr. Trump has nothing much to show on the issue, beyond a vague plan to send money directly to policyholders.
Mr. Trump’s statement highlights the pressure on Republicans to articulate their own vision to improve the affordability of health care now that the subsidies that millions of people rely on to pay for coverage are set to expire by the end of the year. Like Mr. Trump, Republicans in Congress who have spent years attacking Obamacare have not offered up a serious alternative, since their failed effort to repeal the law in 2017.

10-11 November
US Shutdown Nears End as Senate Passes Deal, House Readies Vote
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
A temporary funding measure to end the US government shutdown passed in the Senate and now depends on the Republican-controlled House for approval.
The spending package would keep most of the government open through Jan. 30 and some agencies through Sept. 30, and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
The deal was reached after Democratic moderates dropped their demand to renew expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and instead secured a Republican promise to vote on extending Obamacare insurance premium credits by mid-December.
Ezra Klein: Democrats Were Winning the Shutdown. Why Did They Fold?
…a group of Senate Democrats broke ranks and negotiated a deal to end the shutdown in return for — if we’re being honest — very little.
… The guts of the deal are this: Food assistance — both SNAP and WIC, I was told — will get a bit more funding, and there are a few other modest concessions on spending levels elsewhere in the government. Laid-off federal workers will be rehired and furloughed federal workers given back pay. Most of the government is funded only until the end of January. (So get ready: We could be doing this again in a few months.) Most gallingly, the deal does nothing to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits over which Democrats ostensibly shut down the government in the first place. All it offers is a promise from Republicans to hold a vote on the tax credits in the future. Of the dozen or so House and Senate Democrats I spoke to over the past 24 hours, every one expected that vote to fail.
White House Backs Shutdown Deal With Eight Democrats
(Bloomberg) The White House on Monday expressed support for a deal between Republicans and eight Senate Democrats who broke ranks with their party to propose an end to the government shutdown. In doing so, they are giving up on the demand that the GOP lift a deadline that will soon leave millions of Americans unable to afford healthcare.
While Republicans took a victory lap, the eight senators, including Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, were pilloried by fellow Democrats and party leaders for what some called a “betrayal.”

7 November
Administration reduces US flights as shutdown stretches on
Experts predict hundreds if not thousands of flights could be canceled at dozens of major airports
As the record-breaking federal government shutdown stretches toward day 38, US airspace is about to get a little less busy. The same cannot be said for US airports.
Donald Trump’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has said flights are being reduced to maintain air traffic control safety during the federal government shutdown, now the longest recorded and with no sign of a resolution between Republicans and Democrats to end the federal budget standoff.
Airline regulators identified “high-volume markets” where the FAA says air traffic must be reduced by 4% by 6am ET on Friday, a move that would force airlines to cancel thousands of flights and create a cascade of scheduling issues and delays at some of the nation’s largest airports.

6 November
Workers decry Trump officials as ‘out of control’ as longest shutdown drags on
Key figures accused of harassment, bullying and attacks as US employees work without pay to keep services running
As the US federal shutdown enters its second month, government workers are accusing the Trump administration of being “out of control” and bullying people who are “simply trying to do their best”.
The shutdown surpassed 35 days this week, beating the previous record set under Donald Trump’s first presidential term. About 700,000 federal employees are furloughed without pay, and about 700,000 additional federal workers have been working without pay through the shutdown.
Affected workers say the shutdown has been a continuation of attacks they have experienced under the Trump administration, from mass firings – many of which have been overturned or blocked in federal courts – to drastic budget cuts, pushes to take early retirements or resignation buyouts, and threats of withholding back pay for workers furloughed during the shutdown.

5 November
Longest Shutdown in History Costs US Economy About $15 Billion Each Week
Past shutdowns have left only temporary scars, but this time is different
By Jarrell Dillard and Josyana Joshua
(Bloomberg) The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, and with no sign of a resolution soon its economic toll is deepening.
Now in its 36th day, the shutdown has surpassed the previous record set in early 2019 during President Donald Trump’s first term. Every week that passes costs the economy anywhere from $10 billion to $30 billion, based on analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range.
In the past, the hit to economic growth has been temporary, with furloughed employees getting back pay and the federal government making up for the halted spending once reopened.
This one stands to inflict more damage, and not just because of its length, economists say. The economy is more fragile than seven years ago, with many Americans fretting about inflation and job prospects. And unlike during the 2018-2019 shutdown, the fallout extends beyond federal workers missing paychecks to millions of Americans losing full access to food assistance heading into the holiday season.

31 October
Trump administration must fund SNAP payments during the shutdown, judges rule
(AP) Two federal judges ruled nearly simultaneously on Friday that President Donald Trump’s administration must continue to fund SNAP, the nation’s biggest food aid program, using contingency funds during the government shutdown.
The rulings came a day before the U.S. Department of Agriculture planned to freeze payments to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program because it said it could no longer keep funding it due to the shutdown.
The program serves about 1 in 8 Americans and is a major piece of the nation’s social safety net. Word in October that it would be a Nov. 1 casualty of the shutdown sent states, food banks and SNAP recipients scrambling to figure out how to secure food. Some states said they would spend their own funds to keep versions of the program going.
Government shutdown offers schools a glimpse of life without an Education Department
(AP) Much of the department’s work has gone completely cold. No new grants are being awarded, and civil rights investigations have been halted. Money is still flowing for key programs, but in many respects, schools and states are on their own.
That’s the vision President Donald Trump has promoted since his presidential campaign — a world where states fully have the reins of education policy with little or no influence from the federal government.

8 October
Federal government shutdown grinds into a week two as tempers flare at the Capitol
(AP) No negotiations, at least publicly, are underway, but behind the scenes quiet talks are emerging. Clusters of lawmakers, Republicans and Democrats, are meeting privately, searching for ways out of the impasse, which hinges on striking a deal for preserving health care subsidies.

These Democrats Could Hold the Key to Ending the Shutdown
As the federal closure slides into a second week, Republicans are working to peel off five more Democratic senators to join them in voting to reopen the government.
Since the government shutdown began one week ago, Senate Republicans have repeatedly noted that only a handful of Democrats need to cross party lines and join them in pushing through a stopgap spending bill to reopen the government.
So far, not a single Democrat has changed positions, instead sticking with the party’s insistence that Republicans first negotiate to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies slated to expire at the end of the year.
Republicans, who control 53 votes in the Senate, would need eight senators from across the aisle to vote for their bill to extend funding through Nov. 21. Two Democrats, Senators Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, as well as Senator Angus King, the Maine independent aligned with the party, backed the G.O.P. plan in the hours before the shutdown deadline. But Republicans have made no further headway toward hitting the magic number.

2 October
Senior government officials privately warn against firings during shutdown
(WaPo) The Trump administration has telegraphed that mass firings are coming, but officials have cautioned that such moves could violate appropriations law.
The officials cautioned that firings — known as RIFs, or reductions in force — could be vulnerable to legal challenges under statutes labor unions cited this week in a lawsuit seeking to block threatened mass layoffs. For example, the Antideficiency Act prohibits the federal government from obligating or expending any money not appropriated by Congress. It also forbids incurring new expenses during a shutdown, when funding has lapsed; some federal government officials have concluded the prohibition could extend to the kind of severance payments that accompany reductions in force.

1 October
Government shutdowns, what’s happened before is now officially taking place again
George Petras, Ramon Padilla
(USA TODAY) The federal government officially shut down Oct. 1 after President Donald Trump and congressional leaders failed to reach a funding compromise and adjourned at 8:24 p.m. on Sept. 30. The shutdown started at midnight.
Senators rejected two deals, one from Democrats, the other from Republicans, that would have prevented the shutdown. The Republican plan, which would have kept the government open until Nov. 21, failed on a 55 to 45 vote, USA TODAY reported. At least 60 votes are needed to pass.
The federal government ran out of money at the end of the fiscal year, after members of Congress were unable overcome partisan differences and agree to pass a funding bill.
The federal government has closed down 21 times, with a total of 161 days since 1976. The pending shutdown primarily concerns health care spending.
Democrats want to prevent Obamacare subsidies from lapsing and reverse cuts to Medicaid funding enacted by Trump’s tax and spend law, known as the Big Beautiful Bill.

U.S. Begins Shutdown That May Lead to Mass Layoffs & Cuts

28 September-1 October
(NYT) The government shut down on Wednesday morning at 12:01 a.m., amid a bitter spending deadlock between President Trump and Democrats in Congress that will disrupt federal services and leave many federal workers furloughed.
It was the first federal shutdown since 2019, when parts of the government were shuttered for 35 days in a standoff between congressional Democrats and Mr. Trump over the president’s demand to fund a wall at the southern border.
Senate Fails to Pass Spending Bill; Shutdown Hours Away
A government shutdown is hours away as Senate spending votes fail.
In back-to-back Senate votes that reflected the bitter spending deadlock between President Trump and Democrats, each party blocked the other’s stopgap spending proposal, just as they had earlier this month.

Trump’s Grand Plan for a Government Shutdown
The Trump administration might use a shutdown to finish the job that DOGE started.
By Toluse Olorunnipa, Russell Berman, and Jonathan Lemire
(The Atlantic) During the first eight months of his second presidency, Donald Trump has tried to hollow out the federal workforce by any means possible, including paying more than 200,000 people not to work, disassembling entire agencies via the Department of Government Efficiency, and fighting in court any effort by employees to hang on to their job. This week, Trump could try his most audacious move yet: using a government shutdown to conduct mass firings.
The congressional impasse over spending may now supercharge Trump’s efforts to slash the civil service—just as the bulk of those being paid not to work lose their job when the fiscal year ends. …
What a Shutdown Really Means for Markets
(Bloomberg) The main macro implications lie in the labor market and predictions for the path of interest rates. The Trump administration is threatening mass firings of federal workers, which if true would add to the tens of thousands of people it already fired this year and send jobless claims rising even higher in a troubled job market. As for those other markets, a shutdown that lasts could finally stick a pin in the extended bull run, which as in previous years seems untethered to reality. Here’s what to watch for if that shutdown reality bites.
28 September
Trump will meet with congressional leaders on Monday, aides say.