China-Russia relations July 2023-

China-Russia relations January 2022-June 2023
China and Russia: Four Centuries of Conflict and Concord
A compelling, expansive history of the relationship
between China and Russia,from the 17th century to the present.

Leading Russia Watcher in China Makes Surprise Ukraine War Prediction
Chinese specialist on Russia has delivered a grim forecast for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine: that it is doomed to fail.
(Newsweek) Peking University professor Feng Yujun is also cooling on the future of Beijing-Moscow relations, writing in a recent op-ed in The Economist that the two nations have diverging visions of the future of global affairs.
Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia
Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations

20 March
China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers (Backgrounder)
China and Russia have expanded trade and defense ties over the past decade, but they’re not formal allies. Experts say Russia’s war in Ukraine could be a turning point in the relationship.
By Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland
(Council on Foreign Relations) After a long history of disputes, China and Russia have expanded their military, economic, and diplomatic relations in the twenty-first century. The countries are celebrating seventy-five years of diplomatic relations in 2024.
Though ties between them have substantially increased, China and Russia are not natural partners or formal allies, and experts question the strength of the relationship.
Beijing and Moscow’s cooperation is driven by their desire to curb American power and challenge U.S. hegemony despite ongoing challenges to their relationship. …
China and Russia are not formal treaty allies and are not bound to come to the other’s defense. Nevertheless, their emerging strategic partnership has caused alarm in Washington. … At a meeting in February 2022, days before Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin said their partnership has “no limits” [PDF] and vowed to deepen cooperation on various fronts.
Xi and Putin are believed to have a close personal relationship. Since Xi came to power, he and Putin have met on forty-two different occasions, far more visits than the Chinese president has had with other world leaders. … The countries have also aligned themselves in multilateral institutions to oppose U.S. influence in the world. Similarly, they have established their own institutions, such as the BRICS (alongside Brazil, India, and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to garner support from developing countries.

2023

24 November
Russian and Chinese executives discuss Russia-Crimea tunnel project
By Greg Miller and Mary Ilyushina
(WaPo) Russian and Chinese business executives with government ties have held secret discussions on plans to build an underwater tunnel connecting Russia to Crimea in hopes of establishing a transportation route that would be protected from attacks by Ukraine, according to communications intercepted by Ukraine’s security services.
The talks, which included meetings in late October, were triggered by mounting Russian concerns over the security of an 11-mile bridge across the Kerch Strait that has served as a key logistics line for the Russian military but has been bombed twice by Ukraine and remains a vulnerable war target.
The negotiations underscore Russia’s determination to maintain its grip on Crimea, a peninsula that it annexed illegally in 2014, as well as Moscow’s growing dependence on China as a source of global support.
Constructing a tunnel near the existing bridge would face enormous obstacles, according to U.S. officials and engineering experts who said work of such magnitude, probably costing billions of dollars and taking years to complete, has never been attempted in a war zone. … Nevertheless, intercepted emails indicate that one of China’s largest construction companies has signaled its willingness to participate.

15-19 October
Putin’s prominence and the shadow of conflict: Key takeaways from China’s Belt and Road Forum
CNN — A two-day global gathering billed as China’s “most important diplomatic event” of the year wrapped up in the Chinese capital on Wednesday, with Beijing touting its outsized role in world development – and its alternative vision to that of the United States.
Two dozen leaders and more than a hundred delegations, largely from the Global South, came together for a packed schedule of forums and bilateral meetings revolving around Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
The gathering – in which Vladimir Putin was the guest of honor – also provided a window into Xi’s vision for a world absent of the norms and values promoted by liberal democracies.
The gathering left no question over who was the most important world leader in attendance in the eyes of China’s Xi.
Putin was the first among a handful of visiting leaders to deliver remarks at the forum’s opening ceremony on Wednesday. There, and in three hours of bilateral meetings with Xi later that day, the Russian leader stressed his close alignment with China.

China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin discuss Gaza crisis and Ukraine war at belt and road forum meeting
Chinese President Xi Jinping vows to defend ‘fairness and justice’ as he and Russian leader meet for first time since start of Israel-Hamas war
Putin says ‘external factors’ and ‘common threats’ will strengthen Moscow’s ties with Beijing

Putin Visits China to Bolster Ties With ‘My Friend,’ Xi
The Russian leader is likely to push for more economic support when he meets with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing.
(NYT) When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia meets with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Beijing this week, both men will likely seek to demonstrate the strength of their “no limits” partnership in challenging the Western-dominated global order
the two countries have called for an end to the violence and a revival of talks about a Palestinian state. …
The Chinese and Russian alignment over the Israel-Hamas conflict reflects their geopolitical ambitions. Both countries have tried to cast themselves as leaders of the developing world, partly to bolster their standing with the oil-rich Arab world. They have also reinforced their own relationship over a common interest in eroding American global power.

Putin to visit China to deepen ‘no limits’ partnership with Xi
Putin to attend Belt and Road Forum Oct. 17-18
Putin’s second visit outside former USSR since war
(Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Xi Jinping in China this week in a bid to deepen a partnership forged between the United States’ two biggest strategic competitors.
Putin will attend the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on Oct. 17-18, his first trip outside the former Soviet Union since the Hague-based International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children from Ukraine.

19 September
Kremlin says Russia and China must edge closer to counter Western efforts to contain them
(AP) — A senior Kremlin official on Tuesday called for closer policy coordination between Moscow and Beijing to counter what he described as Western efforts to contain them as he hosted China’s top diplomat for security talks.
Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that Moscow “seeks progressive development and strengthening of the Russian-Chinese relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation.”
He noted that Putin is set to hold “substantive” talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during next month’s trip to Beijing to attend a summit of the Chinese Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
… Last month, China helped engineer an expansion of the BRICS partnership, which invited six more countries to join what has been a five-nation bloc that includes China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa.

17 September
Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan shows how to meet China on its own terms
The Central Asian nation is taking advantage of its strategic location to diversify away from its traditional dependence on Russia
Despite fears of Chinese colonisation, it has succeeded in aligning the belt and road projects with its own development plan, something that can be a lesson for other middle powers
David Morris, senior fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation, and a research fellow at the Corvinus University of Budapest.
(SCMP) Following this year’s inaugural China-Central Asia Summit and 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative, is China replacing Russian influence in Central Asia? Kazakhstan confounds the narrative.
As a middle power in a dangerous neighbourhood, Kazakhstan might be expected to be under the influence of China, its much more populous neighbour. Kazakhs have long feared a Chinese invasion, or at the least a slow colonisation.
A closer examination suggests Kazakhstan is taking advantage of its strategic location to diversify its partners and pursue its national interests. It could yield some lessons for other middle powers on how to coexist with China.
After decades of Russian domination as a former republic of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s post-independence leader Nursultan Nazarbayev developed a strategy for a multi-vector foreign policy, seeking to benefit from engagement and cooperation with multiple partners and in overlapping regional initiatives. The new president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has doubled down on Nazarbayev’s strategy.
Kazakhstan has sought closer links with the United States and European Union, including as a member of the Nato Partnership for Peace. It joined the Organization of Turkic States. It also enthusiastically joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and was the location where President Xi Jinping unveiled his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.
When it comes to the initiative, Kazakhstan has bent it to its own interests. It offers an opportunity to diversify away from its traditional dependence on Russia. Rather than replacing one dependency with another, Kazakhstan has aligned belt and road projects with its own domestic infrastructure development plan.

14 September
Russia and China Look at the Future of War
By Matthew McInnis
(ISW) Russia and China share a common modernization objective: achieving dominance in decision-making in future wars. Both states are struggling to improve their military personnel quality and integrate the lessons from the wars of the past two decades. Russia is attempting to innovate within a narrower band of military doctrine and operations while addressing the early failures of its Ukraine invasion. China aims to use new doctrine, technology, and integration of civilian expertise with the People Liberation Army (PLA) to leapfrog over US military superiority. The United States must assess the threat from China’s and Russia’s modernization efforts and seek to exploit their respective blind spots and weaknesses.
Exploiting adversary vulnerabilities and building on relative strengths will be crucial for the United States to succeed in its long-term military competition with China and Russia. At the operational and tactical level, the United States has battle-tested forces with extensive lessons learned from recent conflicts. The United States benefits from superior training and a decentralized command structure. However, at the strategic level, the United States struggles with slow and incoherent decision-making processes, making it difficult to establish clear objectives and execute coherent plans. The United States also tends to bifurcate war and non-war operations, unlike Russia and China, which see them as part of a singular conflict. The United States must integrate diplomatic, information, and conventional operations to counter Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare and political campaigns effectively. Despite these challenges, the United States possesses strengths in its alliances, partnerships, transparency, and advanced technologies that can mitigate structural and be the foundation for future success.

12 September
China’s Complex Relations with Russia: Tracing the Limits of a “Limitless Friendship”
Beijing and Moscow are aligned when it comes to fighting the US-led world order. But beyond this common aim, there are many points of bilateral friction.
(Internationale Politik) “Brother in Spirit”: Toward an Authoritarian International Order?
The most important force holding the partnership between China and Russia together is their shared rejection of a US-dominated world that undermines not only their international ambitions but questions their domestic authoritarian regimes. The Sino-Russian Joint Declaration published in February 2022 is testimony of the shared attempt to erect a world order that protects authoritarian rule. This is less inspired by self-confidence but rather reflects the consciousness of both the Russian and the Chinese leadership of their vulnerabilities.

28 August
China, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
The Sino-Russian relationship has become a more intractable problem for the transatlantic alliance. The West should continue to concentrate its efforts on Beijing.
(Internationale Politik) Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russia-China strategic partnership was becoming increasingly challenging for the United States and its allies. But since the war began, Chinese-Russian relations have presented more intractable problems for the transatlantic alliance. Chinese support for Russia has enabled the Kremlin to continue its aggression against Ukraine and has helped solidify the refusal of much of the Global South to condemn or sanction Moscow. It has complicated the West’s moves to isolate Russia and exclude it from the global economy.

6 August
Russian, Chinese Warships Operated Near Alaska, Say Senators
(US Naval Institute) A joint Russian and Chinese flotilla sailed near Alaska and the Aleutian Islands earlier this week, two Alaska lawmakers said on Sunday.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said in a joint statement on Saturday that they were given a detailed briefing on the joint flotilla and said it included eleven ships.
The pair confirmed that four U.S. Navy destroyers, along with a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, had been dispatched to the location of the flotilla. The Russian-Chinese flotilla did not enter U.S. territory, a defense official told USNI News