Small Island Developing (SIDS) and Pacific Island States 2024-

Alliance of Small Island States AOSIS
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea
Members and Observers
UNDP Support to Small Island Developing States
ODI – Overseas Development Institute

8 May
Political showdown in the Solomon Islands
(GZERO media) The Pacific archipelago’s appeals court ordered Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele to reconvene the island’s legislature by tomorrow for a non-confidence vote on his minority government. The Solomons have been gripped by a political crisis since March, when 19 members of Manele’s ruling coalition defected to the opposition over what they characterized as internal divisions and concerns about the government’s direction. One long-simmering issue is China’s influence: it has accelerated under Manele and his predecessor Manasseh Sogavare, who shifted the islands’ diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Bejiing’s “One China” policy in 2019 and signed a security pact in 2022. This raised security concerns in the US and Australia due to the islands’ strategic location on sea lanes connecting the two countries. If Manele’s government falls, the Solomons will hold elections, though it’s not clear how much Beijing’s influence will diminish even if the opposition comes to power, as the coalition includes both pro and anti-China members.

20-21 January
What to know about the Chagos Islands as Trump slams the UK’s sovereignty deal
(AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump has turned his fire on a deal between Britain and Mauritius to settle the future of the Chagos Islands, the contested Indian Ocean archipelago that is home to a strategic U.S. military base.
Trump said on social media that a deal to transfer sovereignty of the islands from the U.K. to Mauritius is “an act of GREAT STUPIDITY.”
That’s despite the Trump administration previously welcoming the agreement as a way to ensure the security of the American base on Diego Garcia, the largest of the island chain.
The remote chain of more than 60 islands is located in the middle of the Indian Ocean off the tip of India, south of the Maldives.
The Chagos Islands have been under British control since 1814, when they were ceded by France.
The archipelago is best known for the military base on Diego Garcia, which has supported U.S. military operations from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2008, the U.S. acknowledged it also had been used for clandestine rendition flights of terror suspects.
What are the Chagos Islands – and why is the UK returning them to Mauritius?
Donald Trump has called the plan to transfer sovereignty ‘stupid’ and linked it to his own push to acquire Greenland
UK to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius despite Trump’s taunts, No 10 says
PM’s spokesperson insists government’s position is unchanged and that the US still supports the deal
Starmer’s official spokesperson said: “Our position remains unchanged. This deal secures the operations of the joint US-UK base for generations. It has robust provisions for keeping its unique capabilities intact and our adversaries out. It has been publicly welcomed by the US.
“As the world grows more dangerous, so too does the importance of the base for our national security. It’s one of the most significant contributions to the UK and US intelligence and security relationship, and almost every operation from the base is in partnership with the US.”
22 May 2025
UK signs £3.4bn deal to cede sovereignty over Chagos Islands to Mauritius
Starmer says there’s ‘no alternative’ and defends cost, saying it is ‘part and parcel of using Britain’s reach to keep us safe at home’

7 January
How the UK Is Undermining US Indo-Pacific Security
By: Alexander B. Gray, and Cleo Paskal
As Parliament reviews the transfer of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, US access to the Diego Garcia base is no longer assured.
While the world’s attention is on Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere, the British government is careening this week toward a colossal strategic blunder with significant implications for American interests in the Indo-Pacific. The British parliament is in the process of passing the “Agreement concerning the Chagos Archipelago including Diego Garcia,” which would transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean from the UK to Mauritius. This archipelago contains Diego Garcia, one of the US military’s most critical facilities.
The Diego Garcia base, known colloquially as the “footprint of freedom,” is one of the few outside the United States that can reload nuclear submarines, port aircraft carriers, and base and launch strategic bombers, and is critical for Space Force operations.
Diego Garcia supports operations in some of the most strategically and economically important parts of the world—from the Middle East to Central Asia to the Pacific Ocean—all while being protected by the vast “moat” of the Indian Ocean. It is key to US power projection in the Indo-Pacific and to deterrence of China’s growing naval threat.
Currently, the land under the base is British territory. However, if legislation supported by British prime minister Keir Starmer is adopted, it will soon be handed over to Mauritius. When the treaty was announced in 2024, then-Senator Marco Rubio said the deal “poses a serious threat to our national security interests in the Indian Ocean and threatens critical US military posture in the region.” He was correct then, and that assessment is even truer today.

2025

31 December
A tiny U.S. territory in the Pacific doubles down on a giant Chinese casino
Supporters of a casino project say it’s an economic lifeline for Saipan; detractors raise questions about money laundering and ties to Chinese criminals.
(WaPo) … Kaneko’s arrival in Saipan has renewed concerns about corruption in one of America’s most isolated, economically vulnerable and strategically important territories, and again raised the specter of Chinese influence peddling that first helped drive the project under, according to federal agents and former government officials familiar with the investigations into the casino. …
The Northern Marianas is the closest American soil to mainland China, and is increasingly important to U.S. military strategy in the Pacific, former and current military leaders say.
In a measure of the islands’ growing significance, the territory recently helped host the largest U.S. war games exercise in the Pacific since the Cold War. On the island of Tinian, just 10 miles from Saipan and part of the commonwealth, the U.S. Air Force is spending $800 million to repair and expand an airfield that has sat dormant since its runways were used by the American bombers that dropped atomic weapons on Japan’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

15 September
‘Clear actions’ mark the end of the 54th Pacific Islands Forum
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) wrapped up its annual Leaders’ Week in Honiara by agreeing on “clear actions” that will guide the region “through an increasingly complex and challenging strategic environment”.
This was the message from Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele as he declared the “successful conclusion” of the 54th edition of the meeting on Friday.
Pacific Resilience Facility
After ten years in the making, the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF) was signed and ratified by the leaders.
The PRF is the Pacific’s response to the frustration of accessing climate finance. Instead of competing with the rest of the world for money via the Green Climate Fund and other mechanisms, money should be able to be pulled for community reliance projects using the region’s own facility.
It is the first time a PIF treaty has been signed in 40 years, the last one being the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, also known as the Rarotonga Treaty, signed in August 1985 in the Cook Islands. “We are finally establishing our first international financial institution owned by the Pacific Islands Forum Fund.”
Ocean of Peace Declaration
Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka’s brainchild, the Ocean of Peace initiative, was endorsed.
9 September
Pacific Island leaders back ‘ocean of peace’ at fraught summit
Honiara (AFP) – Pacific Island leaders issued a call for an “ocean of peace” on Wednesday, urging respect for their sovereignty at a summit clouded by China’s alleged meddling and great power competition in the strategically vital region.
(France24) After a day of largely closed-door talks in the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara, the 18 Pacific Islands Forum leaders endorsed a Fiji-backed push for a statement proclaiming the region’s cohesion and its desire for peace and climate action.
A heavy police presence guarded the leaders, who met in the Friendship Hall, near a 10,000-seat National Stadium built and financed by the Chinese government. Once pot-holed roads had been repaired ahead of the gathering.
“The ‘ocean of peace’ declaration is a reclamation of our sovereignty and our shared destiny,” said Jeremiah Manele, prime minister of Solomon Islands — host of this year’s gathering.
“It is a solemn vow that our seas, air and lands will never again be drawn into the vortex of great power rivalry,” he said.
8 September
Pacific Islands Forum: climate crisis tops agenda as China exclusion casts shadow over leaders meeting
Pacific Islands Forum 2025 faces bumpy start with China, the US and Taiwan uninvited from discussions, as Pacific leaders gather in Solomon Islands
A Credibility Test: Will the U.S. Stand by the Pacific Islands Region Amid Its Exclusion?
Scheduled for September in the Solomon Islands, the 2025 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting was expected to serve as a key test for U.S.-Pacific Islands relations. However, recent developments indicate that the U.S.—along with China and other external partners—are no longer invited. Solomon Islands has restricted attendance to PIF member countries only, a move seemingly aimed at sidestepping mounting tensions over Taiwan’s participation. How the U.S. responds, and whether it continues to support regional priorities despite its exclusion, will be critical in shaping its long-term position in the Pacific Islands region.

26 August
Marshall Islands parliament burns down in overnight fire
(Reuters) – Fire has destroyed the national parliament of the Marshall Islands, fire and police officials in the Pacific Island nation said on Tuesday, adding the blaze had since been put out.
The Marshall Islands Fire Department said in a telephone interview that half of the parliament building, known as the Nitijela, had been burnt down in a fire that broke out overnight.
The Pacific archipelago, midway between Hawaii and Australia, has a population of around 42,000, with half living in the capital Majuro.
Its major diplomatic relationships are a compact of free association with the United States, which provides economic assistance in return for military access, and diplomatic recognition of Taiwan.

11 February
CPI 2024 for Asia Pacific: Leaders failing to stop corruption amid an escalating climate crisis
Ilham Mohamed, Yuambari Haihuie and Urantsetseg Ulziikhuu, Regional Advisors for Asia Pacific, Transparency International
Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) reveals that governments across Asia Pacific are still failing to deliver on anti-corruption pledges. After years of stagnation, the 2024 average score for the region has dropped by one point to 44.
This is especially devastating considering corruption’s detrimental impact on climate change – the biggest challenge humanity faces. Corruption obstructs environmental policy, hijacks climate financing and hinders the enforcement of regulations and policies, leaving the most vulnerable with little recourse. Asia Pacific is home to a third of the world’s population, has the second largest number of young people, and is the region most prone to natural disasters. Without concerted efforts to fight corruption now, this first generation currently facing extreme climate change will bear the brunt of its disastrous consequences.
Small island States, already heavily impacted by the climate crisis, are becoming more vulnerable as poor governance and corruption impede development, integrity systems and climate change policies. As extreme weather events increase and sea levels rise, disaster recovery initiatives and mitigation efforts are harmed by corruption: stolen funds and interference in these programmes’ effectiveness threatens particularly disadvantaged communities.
In Papua New Guinea (31), which is home to the world’s third largest rainforest, corruption has taken away public funds desperately needed to protect the environment. An ABC news report exposed signs of corruption at the national Climate Change and Development Authority, where senior employees allegedly misappropriated US$1.3 million. While the agency’s financial manager was arrested on charges of corruption after whistleblowers reported him to the police, he may be only part of a bigger picture – the public questions the qualifications of the Authority’s head who turned out to be the daughter of a sitting minister.
In the Maldives (38), the island nation poster child for climate vulnerability, civil society warns of potential erosion of fundamental democratic principles that poses serious corruption risks. In Vanuatu (50), several scandals have proven the legislature’s weak political integrity even though a national referendum in June 2024 approved two constitutional amendments about political parties. The dissolution of the country’s parliament last November and the calling for snap elections, put additional strain on democracy in the country. Weak and destabilised integrity systems further increase corruption risks that threaten solutions to climate change-related vulnerabilities and any recovery efforts.

2024

4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States
Charting the Course Toward Resilient Prosperity
27-30 May 2024; Antigua and Barbuda

26-30 August
Pacific Island Forum leaders meeting: 5 things to know
Climate and geopolitics on agenda as hundreds attend high-level event
(Nikkei) The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting kicked off on Monday [26 August] in Tonga, bringing together leaders of the 18 members of Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and the body’s dialogue partners for a week of meetings on issues including responses to climate change and the China-U.S. battle for influence over the strategic region.
China has increased its engagement in the Pacific, while also applying pressure to Taiwan’s remaining Pacific allies. Beijing’s signing of security and policing agreements with the Solomon Islands, in particular, sparked alarm in Canberra and Washington.
Delegations from China, led by Special Envoy for the Pacific Islands Qian Bo and the U.S., headed by Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, are attending this week’s forum.

Anthony Albanese caught on camera joking about Pacific Policing Initiative with top US official Kurt Campbell
(ABC Au) Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has bridled at questions from journalists about a private conversation where he joked with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell about splitting the cost of the Pacific Policing Initiative announced on Wednesday in Tonga.
Mr Albanese brushed off the exchange when he was asked about it on Thursday morning in Nuku’alofa ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum leaders retreat on the northern island of Vava’u, saying there were no plans for the US to help cover the initiative’s $400 million dollar price tag.
The comment comes after some Melanesian leaders raised concerns that the new Pacific initiative shouldn’t be used to bolster Australia’s strategic interests through a strategy of “denial” — a clear reference to boxing out China from the region’s security arrangements.
When he asked if his joke with Mr Campbell might exacerbate those anxieties, Mr Albanese insisted that no Pacific leaders had raised any concerns during the leaders meeting on Wednesday.
“No one’s raised that yesterday. Not a single person at the plenary, raised that yesterday. This is Pacific led, and it’s a cracker of an announcement,” he said.
Pacific Islands leaders endorse regional policing initiative in strategic victory for Australia
Pacific Island leaders have endorsed a new policing initiative, which will create a police training facility in Brisbane and establish a support group that could be deployed across the region.
Australian officials believe the new initiative will bolster Pacific law enforcement and make it harder for China to embed itself in Pacific police forces.
Australia has notched a strategic victory in the Pacific after its peak gathering of leaders endorsed a $400 million major new initiative to reshape policing across the region.
The federal government has championed the Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI), which will set up a major new police training facility in Brisbane and establish a “Pacific Police Support Group” that could be deployed to Pacific nations to help with natural disasters or other emergencies, as well as major events.

53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, Tonga
Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)
In recent years the meeting has drawn increasing interest amid a geopolitical battle for influence in the region between the US and China. As Beijing has expanded its influence in the Pacific and increased its economic and security relationships, the US has boosted its engagement on numerous fronts. Washington has promised more aid, struck security partnerships and opened new embassies. Pacific countries have seen a series of ministerial visits from the US and China, as well as new initiatives across different sectors, and a rise in defence diplomacy.
UN chief to push for more climate change action at Pacific leaders’ summit
António Guterres to attend Pacific Islands Forum (Pif) in Tonga with climate crisis and unrest in New Caledonia among issues to watch
(The Guardian) The annual meeting of leaders is the top political decision-making body of the region. The week-long summit culminates in the leaders’ retreat, where key decisions are made, which may include an endorsement of a regional policing initiative promoted by Australia. The future for New Caledonia is among other big issues to be addressed at the Pacific Islands Forum (Pif) which began in Tonga on Monday.
“We gather at a pivotal time in our region’s history,” said forum secretary Baron Waqa, a former president of Nauru.
“We are at the centre of global geopolitical interest. We are at the forefront of a battle against climate change.”
Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and New Zealand’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon – leaders of the forum’s two largest economies – will attend along with most heads of government of the 18-member regional bloc.
‘A crisis entirely of humanity’s making’: UN chief issues climate SOS on trip to Pacific
António Guterres calls for a ‘massive’ increase in finance and support for the countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels
Pacific island nations are in “grave danger” from rising sea levels and the world must “answer the SOS before it is too late”, the UN chief has warned during a visit to Tonga.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, urged the world to “look to the Pacific and listen to the science” as he released two new reports on the sidelines of the Pacific Islands Forum, the region’s most important annual political gathering.
Sea-surface temperatures in the south-west Pacific have risen three times faster than the global average since 1980, according to a regional report compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and released on Tuesday.
It also found that marine heatwaves in the region had roughly doubled in frequency since 1980 and become more intense and longer-lasting.
The report said 34 mostly storm or flood-related “hydrometeorological hazard events” in the south-west Pacific last year led to more than 200 deaths and affected more than 25 million people.
In a second report published on Tuesday, the UN’s climate action team warned that the climate crisis and sea-level rise were “no longer distant threats”, especially for the Pacific’s small island developing states.
10 April
Keynote Address by Tonga PM, Hon. Hu’akavameiliku at the Launching of the Theme of the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum and Related Meetings

13-14 May
NB Cleo advises”Since the piece came out, Suidani camp has lost the premiership in Malaita, making it a clean sweep for pro-PRC elements”.
How China is Winning the Solomon Islands
Since 2019, Beijing has spent a considerable amount of money and effort setting up its position in the Solomon Islands and openly assisting in the crushing of dissent.
Cleo Paskal and Grant Newsham
(National Interest) April 17 was election day in the Solomon Islands, a country of around 750,000 people northeast of Australia…. Solomon Islanders voted in two elections. They chose their representatives for the national and provincial parliaments.
The outcome of the vote is still being decided, but so far, it is shaping up as a coup for China against the will of the people—one that will have major strategic implications for the United States.
It is a case study of how Beijing is expanding its influence to the point of control throughout the world—and the West is not just watching it happen. It is helping.
Solomon Islanders voted overwhelmingly for change. At the national level, the government of former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is deeply unpopular. As Professor Anne-Marie Brady, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and professor at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand, pointed out, “76 percent voted against Sogavare’s OUR Party in the 2024 election, and they only [won] fifteen seats” in the fifty-member national parliament.
…once Solomon Islanders voted, power moved from the people to the members of parliament. Members pick the prime minister (at the national level) and the premier (at the provincial level) from among their own
… Beijing doesn’t just back one horse. It fills its stables with as many docile rides as possible. The new prime minister, [Jeremiah] Manele, was foreign minister under Sogavare and was a key point person for much of the engagement with China, including the switch from Taiwan. Nor has Sogavare gone away. He is now the Finance and Treasury Minister. Indeed, much of the old gang never left.
In his first speech, Manele discussed prioritizing legislation to facilitate mining, logging, and the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs)—all PRC priorities. SEZs are a particular security concern as they can be used to bypass customs, immigration, employment, and environmental regulations.
As Professor Brady put it, in spite of Solomon Islanders voting for change, Sogavare’s party is “now back in power, in control of all the key portfolios. The voting process may have been relatively free and fair, but the voting negotiations after it were far from it.”

24 April-12 May
Can the law of the sea save island states from rising water?
Soon, a little-known international tribunal will release a precedent setting decision that could force developed nations to do more to protect small island states from the ravages of climate change. A Canadian lawyer represented those tiny countries at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. He shares what’s at stake, along with another member of the legal team – Naima Te Maile Fefita of Tuvalu.
24 April
International Tribunal Set To Issue Climate Change Opinion On May 21
The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea has announced they will deliver their advisory opinion on the obligations of countries to prevent climate change on May 21. The opinion, while limited in scope and non-binding, could force action by member states and provide an important preview for how the International Court of Justice may rule on its pending advisory opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change.
The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea is an independent judicial body established by the Third United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to adjudicate disputes arising out of the interpretation and application of the Convention
Request for an Advisory Opinion submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (Request for Advisory Opinion submitted to the Tribunal)

1 May
Solomon Islands picks China-friendly Manele as new prime minister
(Reuters) – Solomon Islands lawmakers selected a new prime minister on Thursday, choosing foreign minister Jeremiah Manele, who has pledged to continue the Pacific Island nation’s foreign policy that drew it closer to China.
Governor General Sir David Vunagi announced outside parliament house that Manele had won 31 votes, to Opposition leader Matthew Wales’ 18 votes.
Police boosted security in the capital Honiara as newly elected lawmakers arrived at parliament on Thursday to vote in a secret ballot.

17 April
Financing resilient prosperity in SIDS
(ODI) This event brings SIDS finance ministers together with International Finance Institutions and development partners to identify concrete actions needed to ensure this vulnerable group of countries can access the finance needed to cope with shocks, manage debt sustainably and advance towards resilient prosperity over the next decade.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have achieved remarkable levels of growth in the past but suffer disproportionately from external shocks. … SIDS will be affected more rapidly and severely by global warming than any other group of nations. Resolving these momentous challenges, in an increasingly inhospitable and perilous world for SIDS, is both vital and daunting.
When SIDS Heads of State and Government and high-level representatives meet in St. John’s, Antigua and Barbuda from 27 to 30 May 2024, at the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States, to agree an agenda for the next 10 years, they will set out reforms needed in the international finance and debt architecture for sustainable development and resilient prosperity.

14-17 April
Stakes are high for election in the Solomon Islands
(GZERO media) Voters in the Solomon Islands will vote in a parliamentary election on Wednesday that has repercussions for the Asia Pacific region due to the country’s close relationship with China.
After delaying the election a year to focus on hosting the 2024 Pacific Games — a move that raised eyebrows — Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavere is up for reelection. Best known for switching diplomatic recognition to Taiwan in 2019, he then alarmed neighboring Australia, New Zealand, and the US by signing a secret security pact with Beijing in 2022, raising fears that China could one day build a naval base there.
His primary opponent, Peter Kenilorea Jr., the son of the country’s first prime minister, has pledged to switch ties back to Taiwan.
But for most Solomon Islanders, the election is less about China and more about the economy. The 900 islands are rich in natural resources but rank just 155 out of 199 countries in the United Nations’s Human Development Index, which many blame on the government’s economic mismanagement and corruption.
Right now, polling shows Sogavare as the frontrunner. Still, he is challenged by several strong opposition figures who could undermine his chances if they are able to work together when it comes time to form a government in late April.
Solomon Islands’ elections could impact China’s influence in the South Pacific
(AP) — The country in which China has gained most influence in the South Pacific, Solomon Islands, goes to the polls on Wednesday in an election that could shape the region’s future.
… Even if [current Prime Minister Manasseh] Sogavare fails, observers suspect China will be backing more than one pro-Beijing candidate in the murky contest for the Solomons’ top job in an effort to cement Beijing’s growing influence.
There are also fears the electoral process could again ignite violence in a restive nation riven with inter-island and ethnic tensions, a perceived lack of sharing of resources, widespread poverty and high youth unemployment.
Cleo Paskal: PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans.
(The Sunday Guardian) On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of around 700,000 people in the South Western Pacific, will hold elections. Until recently, elections in the Pacific Islands generally passed unnoticed in world capitals. Not anymore. That lack of attention had resulted in too many “surprises”.

16 April
International Debt Is Strangling Developing Nations Vulnerable to Climate Change, a New Report Shows
Many small island nations which contributed little to climate change now must borrow money to rebuild after climate-induced storms. The debt service they’re carrying hinders their ability to invest in new adaptive infrastructure before the next storms hit.