Iran April 2025-February 2026

Iran February 2024-April 2025

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Unbending Over Time
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has built his 37-year rule on uncompromising repression. His answer to the current protests is no different.
(NYT) He has created a static, authoritarian system resistant to change. The twin pillars of that system remain his ideological fixations — the refusal of any political or social changes that might dilute the power of the regime, and implacable enmity toward the United States.
“He is an obstructionist; I do not see him late in life compromising on ideology and his legacy,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, . “Whatever it takes to stay in power down to the last Iranian, he’s very keen to keep this system intact, and sees it as an existential and ideological struggle.”
Although the protests and hence the bloodshed have slowed in recent days, the U.S. threat created a dilemma for Ayatollah Khamenei and his enforcers, analysts said. Escalating repression might prompt an American attack, but allowing the protests to grow could present a real challenge.
In either case, the situation is likely to widen the yawning gulf between the government and the Iranian people.

25 February
Iran rejects ‘fictional narratives’ of power grab after protest killings
Former President Hassan Rouhani denies reports he wants to replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, blames US and Israel.
(Al Jazeera) Iranian authorities have rejected reports that a former president tried to grab power at the height of last month’s nationwide protests and characterised the claims as “purely fictional narratives”.
A French media report saying former moderate President Hassan Rouhani gathered influential clerics, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, and other figures, like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, to take power was “likely based on false information and speculative accounts provided to the author”, Iran’s embassy in Paris said on Wednesday.
Iran pushes back against Trump
(The World) Iran pushed back Wednesday against US President Donald Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of critical talks in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear program, alternating between calling his remarks “big lies” to saying negotiations may yield an agreement through “honorable diplomacy.” The remarks by two Iranian officials ahead of Thursday’s talks come as the United States has assembled its biggest deployment of aircraft and warships to the Middle East in decades, part of Trump’s efforts to get a deal while Iran struggles at home with growing dissent following nationwide protests last month. If the negotiations fail, Trump repeatedly has threatened to attack Iran — something Mideast nations fear could spiral into a new regional war. Already, Iran has said all US military bases in the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets, putting at risk the tens of thousands of American service members in the region. Satellite photos shot Tuesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by The Associated Press appeared to show American vessels typically docked in Bahrain, the home of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, all out at sea. Before Iran’s attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.

24 February
Marco Rubio delivers rare briefing to top US lawmakers on Iran amid tensions
Secretary of state’s address came as US deploys largest force of aircraft and warships to Middle East since 2003
Marco Rubio delivered a rare briefing to top US lawmakers on Iran from the White House on Tuesday as Washington deploys its largest force of aircraft and warships to the Middle East since the 2003 buildup to the Iraq war.
(The Guardian) The audience for the secretary of state’s briefing was reported to include the so-called “gang of eight”, which includes the senior lawmakers from both parties in the House and Senate, as well as the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees.
The details of the report were classified and were not immediately made public. Exiting the briefing, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said: “This is serious, and the administration has to make its case to the American people.”
The briefing by Rubio took place just hours before Trump is scheduled to deliver a State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening in which his foreign policy is expected to play a central role.

22 February
Iran-US tensions: What would blocking Strait of Hormuz mean for oil, LNG?
More than $500bn in oil and gas flows through waterway annually, leaving the global economy exposed to disruptions.
(Al Jazeera) Whenever tensions rise between Iran and the United States, one narrow waterway moves to the centre of global attention – the Strait of Hormuz.
The world’s largest warship, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford, is heading to the Gulf, joining one of the largest US military build-ups in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. This time, Iran is in Washington’s crosshairs.
This month, Tehran signalled how it might respond to an attack when it announced the temporary closure of sections of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway linking the Gulf to open seas.
Iranian authorities carried out live-fire military drills in the corridor, through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies are shipped.
The move marked a rare suspension of activity in parts of the strait. It served as a pointed warning about the economic consequences if Washington proceeds with its threats to strike Iran, highlighting how quickly a regional confrontation could spill into global markets.

Washington and Tehran to hold more nuclear talks as protests reignite in Iran
Fresh Geneva negotiations suggest Trump’s team believes the Iranian government is making serious proposals

11 February
(The World) Iran marked the 47th anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution on Wednesday as the country’s theocracy remains under pressure, both from US President Donald Trump, who suggested sending another aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, and a public angrily denouncing Tehran’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests. The commemoration represented a split-screen view of life in Iran, with state television showing hundreds of thousands of people across the country attending pro-government rallies, which included the burning of American flags and cries of “Death to America!” The night before, as government-sponsored fireworks lit the dark sky, witnesses heard shouts from homes in the capital, Tehran, of “Death to the dictator!” Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian got on stage at Azadi Square in Tehran and insisted that Iran is willing to negotiate over its nuclear program as fledgling nuclear talks with the US hang in the balance. Whether the talks succeed remains an open question, and Mideast nations fear their collapse could plunge the region into another war.
Iran Commemorates Revolution, With U.S. Warships Lurking Off the Coast
(NYT) The authoritarian clerical regime in Tehran came to power in 1979. Today, it presides over a country that is deeply polarized and under threat of an American attack.

9 February
Iran arrests leading reformists close to the country’s president
Detentions of senior Reformists Front figures follow criticism of the authorities’ handling of recent protests
(The Guardian) The head of Iran’s Reformists Front, the organisation instrumental in securing the election of the country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has been arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in a move that is likely to exacerbate tensions over the handling of recent street protests.
Azar Mansouri, the secretary general of the Islamic Iran People party, had expressed deep sorrow at protesters’ deaths, and said nothing could justify such a catastrophe. She had not in public called for the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to resign.
In what looked like a decisive roundup of the key reformist figures outside government, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, the head of the front’s political committee, and Mohsen Aminzadeh, a deputy foreign minister under the former president Mohammad Khatami, were also arrested.
Further arrests were made on Monday including of Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, a past reformist presidential candidate who spent years under house arrest. Mehdi Karroubi had said Iran’s plight was the direct result of Khamenei’s destructive domestic and international politics, but the IRGC has alleged his son was the “inciter, compiler, and publisher of this destabilising statement”.
Justifying the unprecedented crackdown, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the head of the judiciary, said: “Those who issue statements against the Islamic Republic from within are in agreement with the Zionist regime and America.” He described the people who issued the statement as “wretched and miserable” and threatened they would “suffer losses”

7 February
Iran seizes 2 foreign oil tankers in Persian Gulf, state media says
(AP) The report did not provide a nationality of the tankers or say what flag they were flying under.

5-6 February
U.S. and Iran Set for Talks in Oman as Regional Leaders Seek to Prevent War
Middle Eastern diplomats see a chance for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program but have slim hopes for progress on other U.S. demands.
(NYT) Iranian and U.S. officials will meet in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday for their first face-to-face negotiations since the United States and Iran were at war last June — this time, in an attempt to stave off another conflict.
But it is still not clear whether the two sides agree about what they are willing to negotiate. Middle Eastern leaders have been pushing hard to bring the sides together, seeing it as the best chance to avoid dragging the region into yet another war.
Iran is betting that Trump does not have a plan for regime change
Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic editor
Although weakened by airstrikes, sanctions and domestic unrest, Tehran is surprisingly bullish before talks with US
(The Guardian) When it comes to Iran and Donald Trump, there is so much bluff, backed by military hardware, that the truth rarely makes an appearance.
It appears that a bullish Iran is going into negotiations with the US on Friday adopting maximalist positions that do not seem greatly different to those it adopted in the five rounds of talks before the negotiations were abruptly halted by the surprise Israeli attack on Iran last June.
Given how much Iran has been weakened in the intervening eight months, Tehran’s refusal to change its negotiating position is at one level surprising.
Trump likely to attack Iran soon–and may even target Khamenei
The US and Iran are going to sit down this Friday in Oman, but diplomatic talks aren’t going to avoid a military strike, says Eurasia Group’s US Practice Head Clayton Allen. Iran’s not willing to give up what the US is asking for, and the US is going to continue to demand way more than Iran’s willing to give.
(GZEROmedia) Trump cares about Iran personally. Again, it was a focus of his first term. It’s a focus of his second term. He’s publicly noted that Iran has tried to assassinate him. This is a public leader. This is a leader in Trump who’s survived two assassination attempts at home, and is very focused on the threat that Iran poses to him individually. All of these things make it personal. Trump is also very confident. Unseating Nicolás Maduro, seizing him, bringing him into federal custody, that tells Trump he can do what he wants. He has the capabilities to do anything that he sets his mind to. It’s not clear though that he can contain the fallout from an attack on Iran. He’s got two pair, but he’s playing it like a flush. The US thinks that it can defend any strike that Iran launches against its own bases or against Israel, and it thinks that it can maintain stability in oil markets as well. Neither of those are clear guarantees. The risks around this are much higher than they were around Venezuela than they were around earlier attacks on Iran’s nuclear program.
So what happens now? A strike is likely. And we think that within this, a decapitation strike against the supreme leader is probably the most likely outcome. Trump wants to repeat what he did in Venezuela. Remove the leader, bring in a new set of people that are more pliant, easier to negotiate with. It’s not clear that that works. Even if they don’t strike the supreme leader, striking Iran’s missile program and military assets are very much on the table. If the supreme leader is toppled, it doesn’t necessarily mean regime change. You’re going to end up with a lot of people who have spent their entire lives very much serving the guy you just killed. Yes, they might be a little bit more willing to negotiate, but cutting the head off of the snake in this case doesn’t end the life of the regime. It’s still going to be the same government.

4 February
Killing on a mass scale: piecing together the full picture of Iran’s brutal crackdown
(The Guardian) On Thursday 8 January, after weeks of swelling protests, Iran went dark. Almost everything went offline: internet, messaging, social media, phones. The shutdown was so severe that it has taken an unusually long time to build up a clear picture of exactly what happened in the hours and days that followed.
From across the country, however, evidence has now emerged of killing on a mass scale. Across multiple cities and towns, authorities opened fire on crowds of demonstrators, killing thousands and wounding thousands more. Getting a sense of the true scale has been incredibly difficult, with estimates of the number of dead ranging from a few thousand to more than 35,000.
Using cross-referenced witness accounts, photographs and videos from hospitals, morgues and graveyards, we were able to piece together a picture of the nightmarish levels of violence: piles of hundreds of corpses, ice-cream trucks filled with the dead, and victims who appear to have been summarily executed with gunshots to the head while still hooked up to hospital medical equipment. We spoke to doctors inside Iran who formed an informal network of medical staff to compare notes, death tolls and patterns of injury – they estimated that the toll may be about 10 times the official government figures (Iranian authorities say just over 3,100 people died).

3 February
US and Iran talks brought back from the brink after White House relents on move to Oman
Talks that had been scheduled in Turkey salvaged after Arab states convince White House not to walk away from negotiations
(The Guardian) [Nuclear]Talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Friday have been brought back from the brink of collapse after the US initially rejected Iran’s request to move them from Turkey to Oman without the presence of a group of Arab states.
Iran’s foreign minister said late on Wednesday that the talks would proceed in Oman after reports of a last-minute effort by Arab states to convince the White House not to walk away from negotiations.

Iran’s president seeks ‘fair and equitable’ negotiations, while US shoots down drone
(AP) — Iran’s president said Tuesday he instructed the country’s foreign minister to “pursue fair and equitable negotiations” with the United States, the first clear sign from Tehran it wants to try to negotiate as tensions remain high with Washington after the Mideast country’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests last month.
The announcement came as a U.S. Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone that approached an American aircraft carrier early Tuesday morning. Iranian fast boats from its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard also tried to stop a U.S.-flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, the Navy said. Iran did not immediately acknowledge either incident.
The incidents strained but apparently did not totally derail hopes for talks between Iran and the U.S.

2 February
Trump says Iran talking to US and hints at deal to avoid military strikes
US naval battle group gathers off Iran’s shores as supreme leader in Tehran warns attack would spark regional war
(The Guardian) Donald Trump has said Iran is talking to the US, hinting at a deal that would avoid the use of military strikes, as Iran’s supreme leader warned that any attack by the US would spark a regional war.
[His]comments came as Washington deployed a naval battle group led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off Iran’s shores, after Trump’s threats to intervene in Iran’s deadly crackdown on anti-government protests.
“The plan is that [Iran is] talking to us, and we’ll see if we can do something. Otherwise, we’ll see what happens … We have a big fleet heading out there,” Trump told Fox News. “They are negotiating, so we’ll see what happens.”
He said US allies in the region were not being told of plans for reasons of security. “Well, we can’t tell them the plan. If I told them the plan, it would be almost as bad as telling you the plan – it could be worse, actually,” he said.

29 January
EU designates Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation
‘Any organisation that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise,’ says Kaja Kallas
The EU also added 15 Iranian government officials and six organisations to its sanctions list for their role in “serious human rights violations” in the repression of protesters. The listings included Iran’s minister of the interior, Eskandar Momeni, and several IRGC commanders, senior police and law enforcement officers, an EU statement said.

Trump Warns Iran With Military Muscle, but Risks a Regional War
Iran’s Islamic Republic, weakened by airstrikes in June and huge popular unrest, warns that it will strike back hard if attacked by the United States. This time, Iran may mean it.
(NYT analysis) President Trump is turning his attention back to Iran, which he is threatening with more military strikes “with great power, enthusiasm and purpose.”
He suggested that the strikes would come if Iran did not agree to various demands, including a deal to end its nuclear enrichment program. “Time is running out” for Iran to negotiate such a deal, Mr. Trump warned on Wednesday.
Mr. Trump — and Israel — may be tempted to strike now with the larger aim of bringing down the faltering Iranian regime and perhaps changing the balance of power in the Middle East, experts and analysts say. But given the stakes for the regime in Iran, the risks of a regional conflagration are real, they say.
In the June strikes against Iran and in this month’s quick incursion into Venezuela to kidnap President Nicolás Maduro, Mr. Trump has shown that he likes military action to be short and limited. In both cases he avoided long military involvement or occupation, which would be anathema for his MAGA base.

28 January
Iran says it will ‘respond like never before’ after Trump’s threats
(AlJazeera) President ⁠Donald Trump ​has revived a threat that the United States is ready to launch a military attack against Iran as he demands Tehran make a deal over its nuclear programme.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that the Iranian government’s “days are numbered”.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the country will deliver an unprecedented retaliation to any US attack.
Iran’s currency has fallen to a record low of 1.6 million to $1, a month after the start of nationwide protests sparked by the country’s economic woes, according to local currency traders.
Iranians are making history. Europe must act.
The people of Iran are paying with their lives, and the EU can no longer hide behind procedure.
(Politico Eu) The free world can no longer credibly claim uncertainty about events on the ground, nor can they claim neutrality in the face of what has occurred. Iranians aren’t asking others to speak for them but to empower them to finish what they’ve started. And the urgency for international action has only intensified.
This week, the European debate finally shifted. Italy formally joined calls to condemn the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and with that decision, the EU’s political landscape narrowed. France and Spain are now the only two member countries preventing the bloc from collectively designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Trump threatens Iran with ‘massive Armada,’ ‘able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence’
It’s the latest show of force in the international arena for a White House emboldened by a successful military operation in Venezuela.
“It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”
The president has taken a hard line on Iran — whose leadership has been rocked by nationwide protests in recent weeks — since returning to the White House last year. In June, Trump authorized strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in an operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer,” later claiming that he had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear program.
In recent weeks, the president has advocated for “new leadership” in Iran and threatened to use force when the regime responded with violence to the protests.

26 January
Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen threaten new attacks as US aircraft carrier arrives
(AP) — Two Iranian-backed militias in the Mideast are signaling their willingness to launch new attacks, likely trying to back Iran, as officials acknowledged the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region Monday. President Donald Trump ordered the carriers to move to the Middle East as he threatened military action over its crackdown on nationwide protests.
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on Monday hinted they were ready to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. That came just after Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah paramilitary group, long supported by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, issued a direct threat late Sunday toward any attack targeting Iran, warning a “total war” in the region would be a result.
The statements came as the entire region is mired in a tense waiting game to see if Trump will strike

25 January
Iran president’s son urges authorities to restore internet after protests blackout
(The Guardian) Yousef Pezeshkian says nothing will be solved by trying to postpone moment images of violent crackdown circulate
The sporadic lifting of restrictions is leading to a slow and painful inquest into how many protesters, including children, have died. Authorities launched a violent crackdown under cover of the internet blackout, with rights groups documenting several thousand dead. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights says the final figure could be as high as 25,000. Thousands more people are still being detained.
Tehran’s stock market on Sunday was in the red for the fourth day in a row, and the Iranian currency, the rial, continued to fall against the dollar, one of the causes of the protests. The Central Bank of Iran said a debt issuance had only been 15% subscribed, a development that will require further government spending cuts or result in a rise in inflation
‘Pools of blood, hundreds of gunshots’: I am a surgeon in Iran – this is the horror I’ve witnessed in the crackdown
Anonymous
I’ve worked as a surgeon in disaster zones. Nothing compares to the nightmare I saw in Iran’s hospitals when the state started shooting protesters
By 8 January, Iran’s anti-regime protests that began in late December had spread across the country with reports of at least 45 people killed by security forces. Over the next three days the regime appears to have instigated a brutal crackdown on protesters that is now estimated to have led to the deaths of more than 5,000 people.
People were afraid to come to the hospital. They knew what happens afterwards. From experience, once the situation is considered “under control”, hospitals receive official letters from security institutions demanding patient information – names, details, injuries. If administrators refuse, they face serious consequences. This system existed long before these protests.

24 January
‘Change is inevitable’: What is next for Iran?
Without changes and a deal with US to lift sanctions, Iran could be set for further unrest, analysts say.
(AlJazeera) Protests in Iran have petered out. Tens of thousands have been arrested. And those accused of supporting the unrest have had business assets seized and are being pursued on “terrorism” charges. The authorities – for now – have reasserted control.
Yet, in the shadow of the apparent calm, the very same grievances that sparked the unrest remain, leaving Iran with little choice but to make tough compromises to win sanctions relief and fix the economy or face further upheaval, experts say. With a battered economy, a weakened network of regional allies and the looming threat of a US attack, Iran is at a crossroads.

17-18 January
Iran warns attack on Khamenei would be declaration of war
President issues warning amid speculation Donald Trump plans to assassinate or remove supreme leader
Trump, in an interview with Politico on Saturday, called for an end to Khamenei’s nearly 40-year reign, calling him “a sick man who should run his country properly and stop killing people”.
On Wednesday the US came close to launching military strikes on Iran but ultimately pulled back as Trump opted to pause amid mounting regional and diplomatic pressure.
The US news website Axios reported that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had warned Trump that Israel was not prepared for Iranian retaliation and questioned the effectiveness of a US strike. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, had also urged restraint, according to Axios, citing the risks to regional stability.
Ali Khamenei says thousands killed in Iran protests, some in ‘inhuman, savage manner’
Supreme leader blames US for death toll and calls Donald Trump a criminal for support of demonstrations
The supreme leader railed against the US president, Donald Trump, whom he called a “criminal” for his support of demonstrations, and called for strict punishment of protesters.
Iranian authorities also released a compilation of footage on Saturday that purported to show armed individuals carrying guns and knives alongside regular protesters – evidence, they said, of foreign saboteurs.
The brutal quashing of demonstrations by authorities, which Human Rights Watch said on Friday included the “mass killings of protesters”, has largely driven people off the streets.
With the immediate unrest addressed, authorities were making a public show of punishing those involved in the action, which they had styled as a foreign-backed plot to destabilise the country.
Khatami, in his Friday sermon, claimed 350 mosques, 126 prayer halls and 20 other places of worship had been damaged by protesters. He also said 400 hospitals, 106 ambulances, 71 fire trucks and 50 other emergency vehicles had been damaged.
It was unclear what the fallout of the protest movement will be, or if it will reignite in the coming days. Iran continues to be cut off from the rest of the world, as authorities maintain the more than week-long internet shutdown.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran who had become a prominent opposition voice during the protests, continued to call for the overthrow of the government on Friday and urged Trump to intervene.

16 January
Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission
The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.
Dr Sanam Vakil, Director Middle East and North Africa Programme
(Chatham House) After weeks of intense and destabilizing protests across Iran, marked by sweeping internet and communications blackouts, a severe security crackdown, and reports of unprecedented deaths and repression, US President Donald Trump has kept Tehran and the wider region on tenterhooks by repeatedly threatening military strikes should the violence escalate further.
… In his second term, Trump’s policy towards Iran blends strategic thinking with his instinctive belief in pressure and unpredictability. Rather than being improvised or ideological, this approach draws on the core principles articulated in the administration’s National Security Strategy, including strategic competition, deterrence through strength and the rejection of restraint for its own sake.
The objective is not regime change in the classical sense, but strategic submission, compelling Iran’s leadership to accept permanent constraints on its nuclear ambitions, a narrowed regional role, and the reality that the US is prepared to escalate abruptly if its red lines are crossed.
Crucially, Iran’s future trajectory – whether it experiences renewed cycles of protest met by repression, a period of regime adjustment, or a more dramatic rupture in the form of collapse – has become increasingly contingent on how the US chooses to apply or withhold pressure in the months ahead.
One of the most consequential shifts has been the explicit effort to tie Iran’s internal repression to external consequences. Since the protests began, Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran that mass killings or executions would provoke consequences, including the possible use of force.

15 January
What Happens Next in Iran: Strongman, Coup, Collapse?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards brutally cracked down on the protests — and will wield power going forward.
(Bloomberg) … Fast forward to today, amid the deadliest anti-government unrest in the country since the 1979 revolution, and the balance of power has shifted: the Guards are firmly in control, and have dropped any pretense of deference toward elected officials.
“The continuation of this situation is unacceptable,” the IRGC said in a final blunt warning on Jan. 9, hours into an internet blackout. It heralded a brutal crackdown.
Decades of Western sanctions, most recently over Iran’s nuclear program, have supercharged the organization’s rise from a branch of the military established to protect the 1979 Islamic revolution — and which forged its reputation in the 1980-88 war with Iraq — to a gargantuan economic and political force.
It means the IRGC is not just the iron fist deployed to put down demonstrations; it’s also the group with the most to lose if the system falls, and a key power broker in what happens next.
… The organization has made itself indispensable to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his efforts to keep a grip on power. It sits atop a sprawling empire that stretches from the defense sector — everything from policy to the navy and cyber — to construction and critical infrastructure through its major engineering arm. It controls transport hubs and the energy sector, where it’s a key interlocutor for buyers of sanctioned oil.
… The crackdown in the past week has been “apocalyptic,” according to one Tehran resident, and coincided with a step-up in rhetoric by the regime, which threatened “rioters” with the death penalty and characterized the unrest as “terrorism” instigated by the US and Israel to start a civil war.
Even if the IRGC puts down the protests, its influence won’t end there. In the event of a military confrontation with the US, its commanders will lead the fight. If there’s a diplomatic settlement or domestic leadership reshuffle, it will run through its ranks of members and veterans who span all key branches of the state. …
Iran’s Battered Regional Proxies Still a Menace in US Fight
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Iran’s proxy militias, including Hezbollah and Hamas, have not provided support to the Islamic Republic amid a domestic uprising and external threats from Israel and the US.
The network of armed groups has been weakened by Israel’s military response and the toppling of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad, causing Iran’s “preventative defense strategy” to crumble.
If Iran’s regime is at risk of collapse, its proxy militias may be summoned to target US interests and military installations in the Middle East, and destabilize countries allied to Washington, in a last-ditch effort to save the regime.
The network of armed groups, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian group Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis, has been severely weakened by Israel’s military response to the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the toppling of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad, an Iranian ally.
As a result, Iran’s “preventative defense strategy” has effectively crumbled, according to Mustafa Fahs, a Beirut-based commentator who has acted as adviser to several governments in the region.

Gwynne Dyer: Why America intervening in Iran is a bad idea
Regime change imposed by the West on countries in the Middle East has an almost perfect record of catastrophic failure.
(Hill Times) Any day now, the United States will “come to the rescue” of the protesters in the streets of Iran’s cities, and American bombers will unleash “hell” on the minions of the theocratic regime—or not, as the case may be.
It’s nearly three weeks since the demonstrations started and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats are getting old. His latest exhortation to the protesters, whose will to continue seems to be fraying a bit, told them once again that “Help is on the way,” but there is no useful way that he can keep his promise. Bombs alone won’t work.
Trump’s bombers cannot eliminate the elite Revolutionary Guard troops and Basij militiamen who are killing the protesters without flattening the cities they all live in together. His high-tech missiles can pick off the regime’s political leadership in their homes, but others will simply replace them.
We saw how smoothly President Ebrahim Raisolsadati was replaced by Masoud Pezeshkian when the former was killed in a helicopter crash in 2024. There are three designated successors to the 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is not a regime that will crumble because of a few deaths.
A full-scale invasion might do the trick, but Trump couldn’t put “boots on the ground” even if he wanted to. Given his understandable reluctance to incur serious American military casualties, bombs are the only form of violence he can use against the regime of the ayatollahs. So where are they?

13-14 January
Trump questions Reza Pahlavi’s ability to garner support in Iran
By Steve Holland
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi “seems very nice” but expressed uncertainty over whether Pahlavi would be able to muster support within Iran to eventually take over.
In an exclusive Reuters interview in the Oval Office, Trump said there is a chance Iran’s clerical government could collapse …
Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in support of protesters in Iran, where thousands of people have been reported killed in a crackdown on the unrest against clerical rule. But he was reluctant on Wednesday to lend his full support to Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, who was ousted from power in 1979.
“He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country,” Trump said. “And we really aren’t up to that point yet.
“I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.”
Trump’s comments went further in questioning Pahlavi’s ability to lead Iran after saying last week that he had no plans to meet with him.

Israeli and Arab officials have privately suggested U.S. hold off on Iran strikes
Israeli officials have suggested the Trump administration delay large-scale strikes until the Iranian regime is even more strained, while one Arab official said there is “lack of enthusiasm from the neighborhood” for American military action in Iran right now.
(NBC) Israeli and Arab officials have told the Trump administration in recent days that they believe the Iranian regime may not yet be weakened to the point where U.S. military strikes would be the decisive blow that topples it, according to a U.S. official, a former U.S. official briefed on the discussions, a person familiar with the Israeli leadership’s thinking and two Arab officials.
The Israeli and Arab officials have suggested that President Donald Trump, who is weighing military action in Iran in response to the regime’s deadly crackdown on protesters, hold back on large-scale strikes for now, with some of them preferring to wait until the regime is even more strained, the sources said. They also noted the situation in Iran is rapidly developing, with the stability of the regime potentially changing quickly in one direction or the other.

Iran protests: what we know so far about the spiralling anti-government demonstrations
Protests began over the fall in value of the currency have grown into wider demonstrations and calls for the fall of Iran’s clerical establishment
Despite the internet blackout, reports have emerged that at least 2,000 people have been killed during the demonstrations, with hundreds of protesters sustaining gun shot wounds to the head and eyes. The Iranian government has accused the US of seeking to manufacture a pretext for military intervention, as US president Donald Trump has pledged that “help is on its way”.
Donald Trump has said the US “will take very strong action” against Iran if the regime starts to execute people as part of their crackdown on the spiralling protests. Trump told CBS News: “When they start killing thousands of people – and now you’re telling me about hanging. We’ll see how that’s going to work out for them.”
More than 2,000 people have been killed in the protests – more than 90% of whom were demonstrators – and over 16,700 people have been arrested, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said.
Doctors in Iran have described overwhelmed hospitals and emergency wings overflowing with protesters who had been shot. One ophthalmologist in Tehran has documented more than 400 eye injuries from gunshots in a single hospital.
Trump cancels US-Iran meetings, urges protesters to take over institutions
(Al Jazeera) Donald Trump declares ‘help is on the way’ for Iranian protesters, again floats ‘very strong actions’ against Tehran.
United States President Donald Trump says he has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials and has told protesters to “take over your institutions” amid Tehran’s crackdown.
In a social media post on Tuesday, Trump said that “help is on the way” without offering further details. Trump has openly contemplated ordering military attacks on Iran over the last several days

9 January
The Economic Roots of Iran’s Protests
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
The protests now gripping Iran reflect, above all, economic grievances, which planned reforms are likely to exacerbate in the short term. Cash transfers and promises of lower inflation down the line are unlikely to be enough to appease a population battered by years of economic instability.
(Project Syndicate) The protests that erupted in Tehran on December 28 and quickly spread across Iran were triggered by a specific grievance: the collapse of the country’s currency, the rial. Currency devaluation in Iran is never merely a technical matter; it quickly drives up prices and reduces purchasing power, especially given that many wages are set annually. In December, as the rial’s value fell by 16% – for a total decline of roughly 84% over the past year – food inflation reached an annual rate of 72%, nearly double its recent average.
These developments follow decades of economic isolation. Starting in 2011, sanctions on Iranian oil sharply reduced the country’s foreign-exchange earnings and slowed GDP growth from a respectable 5-9% annually in the early 2000s to less than 3% thereafter. The loss of oil revenues created chronic budget deficits that the government has financed through monetary expansion, fueling inflation. Iran’s economic situation deteriorated further last year, when sanctions gave way to open confrontation. While the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June 2025 caused limited physical damage, it exposed Iran’s vulnerability to sudden escalation, belying the regime’s claims to have things under control and raising the country’s risk premium. Investment, already too low to compensate for rial depreciation, fell further, owing to fears of additional attacks by Israel and the US.

3-9 January
Rising protests test Iran’s regime
By Zac Weisz
(GZERO Media)Twelve days ago, a protest over Iran’s deteriorating economy began at a market in Tehran … Since then, they have spread dramatically. People in over 100 cities and towns across the country have taken to the streets to vent their anger over a plunging Iranian rial and soaring inflation. The unrest has turned violent in places, with demonstrators blocking roads and setting fires in the streets of Tehran. The authorities have responded with a heavy hand. Forty-five people have been killed, including two members of security forces, amid clashes, according to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO, and thousands have been arrested.
“The protests that occurred Thursday night in Tehran is maybe the largest march that city has seen since 2009, since the Green Movement,” said Eurasia Group’s Iran and energy expert Greg Brew, referencing the mass demonstrations that followed what many Iranians saw as a fraudulent presidential election.
In an effort to quell the current protests, the government shut down the internet on Friday, preventing phone calls from reaching the country and causing airlines to cancel flights. The government has offered a proverbial carrot to the public, pledging on Monday to give citizens $7 per month to help offset rising costs, but the move did little to calm anger in the streets.
“[The protests] are being driven by the economic situation,” said Brew, “but they’re also being driven by broad dissatisfaction with the regime, and growing signs that the regime no longer has any credibility with the broader population.”
That discontent with the regime was clear on Iran’s streets yesterday. Crowds chanted, “Death to the dictator,” a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989. Some demonstrators have called for the return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah who now lives in the United States. Pahlavi himself urged Iranians yesterday to continue protesting against the current regime.
Why are these protests different? The Islamic Republic has faced several waves of protest since taking power in the late 1970s. But Iran’s problems today are more expansive. US sanctions have battered the economy. A water crisis has prompted President Masoud Pezeshkian to float the idea of relocating the capital from Tehran, saying resource challenges have made the city unlivable. Iran’s influence across the Middle East has dwindled since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, after counterstrikes weakened Tehran’s proxy groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a key Iranian ally – has also eroded Tehran’s position.
What’s more, Israel exposed Iran’s security vulnerabilities during the 12-day war in June last year. At the same time, the US’s actions in Venezuela have added to uncertainty for all of Washington’s adversaries, and President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of intervention should the Islamic Republic “kill peaceful protesters.”
If the Islamic Republic did collapse, the fallout would reverberate across the Middle East. A power vacuum could emerge to replace Iran as a leading force in the region, and several Iran-backed groups would lose a vital source of support.

Iran Is Cut Off From Internet as Protests Calling for Regime Change Intensify
As protests swelled around the country, Iran’s internet was shut down, and the heads of its judiciary and its security services warned of a harsh response amid calls for “freedom, freedom.”
(NYT) Iran plunged into an internet blackout on Thursday, monitoring groups said, as nationwide protests demanding the ouster of the Islamic government spread to multiple cities and grew in size, according to witnesses.
What to Know About the Protests in Iran
Galloping inflation and a currency crisis have provoked demonstrations across the country.
Protests fueled by deepening economic hardship have swept Iran for more than a week, as soaring inflation has driven frustrated traders and university students into the streets of major cities, including the capital, Tehran.
The demonstrations are the biggest in Iran since 2022, when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody set off fierce anti-government protests, observers and human rights groups say. The current protests, however, have not reached the same scale or intensity as those that followed the death of Ms. Amini, who was detained for violating the country’s hijab rules.
But the protests are drawing scrutiny abroad. On Friday, President Trump said the United States would come to the aid of protesters in Iran if the government used lethal force against them. His comments came a day after reports from Iranian state media that at least one person had been killed in clashes between protesters and security forces. Iranian officials swiftly responded, saying they will act on any interference from the United States, including potentially targeting American bases and forces in the region.

31 December-2 January
Iran officials warn Trump of red line after his threat to ‘rescue’ protesters
Foreign minister says Iranian military is on standby after US president said he would act if demonstrators were killed
(The Guardian) Protests in Iran are in their sixth day, and are the largest since 2022…. The current unrest was triggered by an unprecedented decline in the value of the national currency on Sunday. The Iranian rial dropped to about 1.4m to the US dollar, further harming an already beleaguered economy.
We want the mullahs gone’: economic crisis sparks biggest protests in Iran since 2022
The unprecedented depreciation of the national currency on Sunday – when the Iranian rial dropped to 1.42m to the US dollar, a more than 56% decrease in value in six months – was a breaking point for an already struggling economy and population. The plunging currency has caused soaring inflation, with food prices up by 72% on average compared with the same time last year.
Iran is also under some of the world’s most intense sanctions, which have spurred inflation as the country struggles to access frozen funds abroad and foreign exchange, something exacerbated by its growing reliance on imports
Though the protests started as demonstrations against deteriorating living conditions, they have widened to express grievances at the way Iran is being governed. Women’s rights activists, shopkeepers and students have begun chanting “death to the dictator” and “woman, life, freedom” – slogans that could put people in prison.The government, still shaken from a brutal 12-day war with Israel in June which rocked the foundations of the Iranian regime, has called for dialogue with protest leaders. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said the government should listen to the “legitimate demands” of protesters.
But they are wary of the offer, believing it to be an attempt to co-opt their demands and kill the momentum of the rare protest movement.

2025

30 October
Iran’s president calls for new capital to replace Tehran
(Financial Times) Masoud Pezeshkian says water shortages have made megacity unlivable, but experts dismiss idea of moving
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has tasked his government to carry out feasibility studies on moving the capital out of Tehran, saying environmental challenges have made the sprawling megacity of 10mn unlivable and that leaving is “no longer an option, but a mandate”.
Tehran has been “expanded and overloaded”, Pezeshkian said last week. “We have depleted our groundwater, we are transferring water from other places to Tehran, yet we still face shortages. What kind of policy allows us to pursue development without environmental sustainability?”
Pezeshkian has suggested Iran could build a new capital in the remote, sparsely populated southern coastal strip of Makran on the Gulf of Oman, which advocates say holds vast untapped development potential and benefits from proximity to maritime trade routes.

27 September
Iranians Brace for Economic Impact of New U.N. Sanctions
Already suffering a 40 percent inflation rate and critical shortages of power and water, many in Iran expect conditions to get worse.
Iran’s economic situation, already dire with water and power shortages, staggering budget deficits and a devalued currency, is now expected to deteriorate even further.
On Saturday, the United Nations Security Council reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, after the failure of a diplomatic marathon on the sidelines of the General Assembly.
The U.N. sanctions are more sweeping than the current American sanctions against Iran. They stem from a dispute between Europe and Tehran over adherence to the 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, and Iran’s decision to bar international inspectors from its nuclear sites after strikes by Israel and the United States in June.

4 August
Can Iran save its rial?
Curious news has just emerged out of Tehran: the country’s quasi-parliament is reviving a long-discussed idea to delete four zeros from Iran’s currency (the rial).
(International Intrigue) Once approved, that means 10,000 old rials (24¢) will be replaced by one crisp new rial.
Why bother?
It’s no secret Iran’s economy is a mess — despite having the world’s largest combined oil and gas reserves (or separately #2 in gas and #3 in oil), plus a population comparable to Germany’s, its $400B GDP sits somewhere between Bangladesh and Nigeria.
And for Iran, that looks like 39% inflation, power outages, and empty shelves (particularly for medicine and tech). Now to be clear, the country pumps out quality engineers, doctors, scientists, and entrepreneurs: its Uber-equivalent (Snapp!) reportedly handles more daily trips in Tehran than Uber does anywhere on earth!
But the growth just isn’t there. Iran’s ruling mullahs blame sanctions from the West, which in turn blames the republic’s own record of repression at home and aggression abroad.
The theocracy’s own economic model is also a driver: the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reports directly to the supreme leader, now controls 20-40% of Iran’s economy, including across construction, energy, telecommunications, and finance.
…will this redenomination plan (aka moving the decimal point four places) change anything? In a practical, transactional sense, sure: daily life gets a little easier when your grocery bill or P&L isn’t just a sea of zeros.
And in a behavioural economics sense? Maybe: some research suggests a loaf of bread costing ‘2 new rials’ feels cheaper than ‘20,000 rials’, boosting consumer confidence even though their actual purchasing power remains unchanged.

27 July
Iran’s leaders reach back to pre-Islamic times to stoke nationalism
Officials in the Islamic republic are seeking to rally a population rattled by war and increasingly averse to the Muslim theocracy’s dominant ideology.
…in a speech just days after the Israeli onslaught against Iran last month, [Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei repeatedly praised the country’s “ancient civilization” and boasted that Iran has “cultural and civilizational wealth” far greater than that of America.
By stressing Iran’s cultural rather than religious identity, he sought to rally a population that was not only rattled by the 12 days of Israeli strikes but that also has, in large measure, soured on the clerics who rule the Islamic republic and the religious ideology that defines how society is governed. Khamenei’s remarks — watched closely as a signal to the thousands of bureaucrats, law enforcement officials and clerics who make the government run — represented the highest possible deployment of nationalism.

8-11 July
After the bombs, Iranians struggle to rebuild and recover
(The World) The Israeli airstrikes on Iran have stopped — at least for now. But for many Iranians, the real struggle is just beginning: putting their lives back together.
Iranians come together to help one another amid war
During the nearly two weeks of fighting between Israel and Iran, residents of Tehran were ordered to evacuate the city. But not everyone was able to leave. Of the people who remained, some of them found ways to help those who needed extra support.

26 June
Iran’s supreme leader warns against further American attacks in his first statement since ceasefire
(AP) — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday his country had delivered a “slap to America’s face” with its strike on an American base in Qatar, and warned against any further U.S. attacks in his first public comments since a ceasefire was declared with Israel after 12 days of war.

25 June
Iranian government turns to internal crackdown with arrests, executions
Officials and activists say hundreds have been arrested, three executions reported
(CBC) Iranian authorities are pivoting from a ceasefire with Israel to intensify an internal security crackdown across the country with mass arrests, executions and military deployments, particularly in the restive Kurdish region, officials and activists say.
Within days of Israel’s airstrikes beginning on June 13, Iranian security forces started a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints, sources have told CBC and Reuters.
One man in Tehran, who responded to a CBC News callout via WhatsApp but did not provide his name, said Wednesday that security officers are stopping people at pop-up checkpoints around the city and asking them to show their phones and open their messaging apps.

18-19 June
Europe and Iran will try diplomacy as US weighs joining fight with Israel
(AP) — Iran’s foreign minister will meet in Geneva on Friday with counterparts from Germany, France and the United Kingdom, Iranian state media and European diplomats said, as Israeli airstrikes target his country’s nuclear and military sites and Iran fires back.
What Comes Next for Iran? (podcast)
Karim Sadjadpour on how the Islamic Republic is losing its grip, and what might come next
By David Frum
… David is joined by the Carnegie Endowment scholar Karim Sadjadpour for an urgent conversation about the internal decay of Iran’s theocracy. They discuss the survival instincts of Supreme Leader Ali Ayatollah Khamenei, the regime’s obsession with martyrdom and repression, the true cost of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, and the disconnect between the revolutionary slogans of the state and the aspirations of Iranian society. …

28 May
As Trump Seeks Iran Deal, Israel Again Raises Possible Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wary of a diplomatic solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear program, continues to press for military action that would upend President Trump’s push for a negotiated deal.
Trump warns Netanyahu off Iran strike as nuclear talks continue
US president says an Israeli strike ‘would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution.’

20 May
Iran’s supreme leader rejects US stance on uranium enrichment
(AP) — Iran’s supreme leader on Tuesday pushed back against U.S. criticism of the country’s nuclear program, saying that Tehran won’t seek permission from anyone to enrich uranium and calling American statements “nonsense.”
“They say, ‘We won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium.’ That’s way out of line,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said during a memorial for late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last year. “No one in Iran is waiting for their permission. The Islamic Republic has its own policies and direction — and it will stick to them.”
Khamenei’s remarks came as indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. reportedly continue, though he expressed doubt about their outcome.

14 May
Trump tells Gulf leaders Iran must cease support of proxy groups as part of any nuclear deal
President Donald Trump said Wednesday he urgently wants “to make a deal” with Iran to wind down its nuclear program but Tehran must end its support of proxy groups throughout the Mideast as part of any potential agreement.
Trump, who is in the midst of a three-country visit to the region, also discussed Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program in one-on-one talks with Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The American president expressed measured confidence that the U.S. effort with Tehran would “work out one way or another.”
But in comments earlier in the day, at a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting hosted by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Trump made clear he expected Tehran to end its role as the chief financial backer of the militant groups.

25-26 April
What’s at stake in the Iran-U.S. nuclear talks.
(NYT) A third round of talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear activities concluded Saturday after several hours of negotiations, partly in writing, between senior officials and teams of technical experts from both sides.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said in an interview with Iran’s state television that the talks were “very serious” and focused on details of a potential agreement. He said disagreements remained between Tehran and Washington, but that he was “cautiously optimistic that we can progress.”
Iran and the United States are expected to hold more nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman amid efforts to shape an agreement to avoid the US attacking Iran.
(Al Jazeera) The Iranian delegation will arrive in Muscat on Friday evening in advance of political and, for the first time, technical talks on Saturday.

Death toll in suspected chemical blast at key Iran port rises to 18
The huge explosion and subsequent blaze at Bandar Abbas port has also left more than 750 people wounded.

24 April
Iran’s exiled ‘crown prince’ calls for mass labor strikes to topple regime
(Politico) Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, tells POLITICO the West must create a “strike fund” to support civil resistance and paralyze the government.
Western governments should create a “strike fund” to support a wave of industrial action across Iran that will paralyze the state and hasten the end of the regime, according to the son of the country’s former leader.
Reza Pahlavi…sees a chance for America and Europe to help the country’s grassroots opposition to overthrow its clerical rulers from within.
In recent years, anger at the regime’s repression and economic mismanagement have boiled over in unusually large public protests. Tehran’s standing across the Middle East has also been heavily dented by the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and by Israel’s devastating strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah.

15-16 April
Trump envoy demands Iran eliminate nuclear programme in apparent U-turn
Steve Witkoff’s switch from saying low-level production could continue seen as example of chaotic US foreign policy
The switch to a more hard-line policy is likely to make it much harder for the US to reach a negotiated agreement with Tehran, bringing back the threat of an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
In a further switch, it was agreed that the next round of indirect US-Iran talks, due to start on Saturday, will continue to be in Oman and the venue would not switch to Italy as proposed by the US.
Iran expected to resist US plan to move uranium stockpile to third country
Issue is seen as a key stumbling block in talks with US as Washington seeks to scale back Iran’s nuclear programme

9 April
Anxious Iranians hope nuclear talks may ease risk of US attack
Iran stocks, rial rise ahead of planned weekend talks in Oman
Many Iranians pessimistic after decades of tensions, sanctions
Trump has threatened military action if no deal to curb Iran’s escalating nuclear programme
(Reuters) – Weary from long years of biting sanctions and worried about U.S. threats of military action, Iranians have responded to the prospect of talks this weekend with expressions of hope that have boosted their stock market and depressed currency.
The U.S.-Iranian talks in Oman are to address the long dispute between Iran and the West over its nuclear programme, though Iranian officials are sceptical of progress and U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb if no deal is reached.

7 April
Iran and the U.S. will hold nuclear talks on Saturday, Trump says.
(NYT) President Trump said on Monday that the United States would engage in “direct” negotiations with Iran next Saturday in a last-ditch effort to rein in the country’s nuclear program, saying Tehran would be “in great danger” if it failed to reach an accord.
If direct talks take place, they would be the first official face-to-face negotiations between the two countries since Mr. Trump abandoned the Obama-era nuclear accord seven years ago. But they would come at a perilous moment, as Iran has lost the air defenses around its key nuclear sites because of precise Israeli strikes last October. And Iran can no longer rely on its proxy forces in the Middle East — Hamas, Hezbollah and the now-ousted Assad government in Syria — to threaten Israel with retaliation.

2 April
Ian Bremmer: Will Trump’s Iran strategy actually prevent war?
The United States is ramping up its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
In a letter sent to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March, President Donald Trump gave Tehran an ultimatum: reach a new nuclear deal with the US within two months or face direct military action – “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,” as he told NBC News’ Kristen Welker on Sunday.
The letter proposed mediation by the United Arab Emirates (whose emissaries delivered the missive in question) and expressed Trump’s preference for a diplomatic solution. “I would rather have a peace deal than the other option, but the other option will solve the problem,” the president said.
Trump, Iran trade nuclear barbs as U.S. sends bombers and warships to region
The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran will “move toward” a nuclear weapon if attacked by the U.S. or Israel, just a day after President Donald Trump threatened to bomb the country.
A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Monday that Iran will “move toward” a nuclear weapon in response to a U.S. or Israeli attack, just a day after President Donald Trump threatened “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before” if Tehran refuses to destroy its nuclear program and cease supporting proxy militias in the Middle East.