Middle East & Arab World / US-Iran May 2024-April 2026

Middle East & Arab World March 2023-June 2024
Arab Barometer

Anders Puck Nielsen: Why is it so difficult to open the Strait of Hormuz? (video)
It will be dangerous to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump is visibly frustrated about the situation. He can’t end the war before the strait is opened, and he can’t open it without a major escalation.
Paul Krugman: The Logic of NACHO [Not a Chance Hormuz Opens]
Realistically, the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is for both sides to stand down — for Iran to lift its de facto embargo on shipping through the Strait, while the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian shipping.
Such a mutual stand-down wouldn’t require negotiating a formal deal, nor would it require that either regime trust the other. All it need involve is for both sides to stop doing what they are doing.

29 April
Trump rejects Iran’s offer, says blockade stays until nuclear deal
President Trump told Axios he’s going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses U.S. concerns about its nuclear program.
Why it matters: Trump is rejecting an Iranian proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear talks to a later stage.
Behind the scenes: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said.
After the strikes, which would likely include infrastructure targets, the U.S. would press the regime to come back to the negotiating table and show more flexibility.
Trump told Axios he saw the blockade as “somewhat more effective than the bombing,” and the sources said he had yet to order any kinetic action as of Tuesday night. He did post an AI-generated meme of himself holding a gun with a warning to Iran and the tagline, “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY.”
For now, Trump sees continuing the blockade as his primary source of leverage, but he would consider military action if it Iran still won’t cave, according to the sources. He declined to discuss any military plans….
Nicholas Kristof: Two Cocky Authoritarians Blocking Hormuz: What Could Go Wrong?
In 2018, President Trump pulled out of the Iranian nuclear accord, promising that he would then negotiate a better deal. He couldn’t and didn’t.
Instead, Iran built up its nuclear program.
Then in February of this year, Trump again badly misjudged his leverage, starting a war with Iran that he apparently believed would be brief and successful, “a minor excursion” that would lead Iranian leaders to “cry uncle.”
Instead, Iran seized the Strait of Hormuz.
Now Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed. Trump canceled a round of nuclear talks on Saturday and seems to think that “the United States holds the cards,” as the White House put it.
The war will “come to an end very soon,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He added that Iran is running out of room to store its oil, which he seemed to believe would happen around Wednesday. After that, he said, “it just explodes.”
All this was news to petroleum experts. …

27 April
US-Iran Peace Talks Stall as Conflict Nears Two-Month Mark
(Bloomberg) Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi …said in a social media post that Iran has “yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy.”
Araghchi was in Oman on Sunday for talks with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq. He then returned to Islamabad, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said. Araghchi also spoke to the foreign ministers of Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Sunday. He intends to travel on to Russia after Pakistan, IRNA reported.
Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks
(Axios) Iran gave the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, according to a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge.
(The World) Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase, two regional officials said Monday. US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, which was passed to the Americans by Pakistan and would leave unresolved the disagreements that led the US and Israel to go to war on Feb. 28. The US blockade is designed to prevent Iran from selling its oil, depriving it of crucial revenue while also potentially creating a situation where Tehran has to shut off production because it has nowhere to store the oil. The strait’s closure, meanwhile, has put pressure on Trump, as oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed ahead of crucial midterm elections, and it has pressured his Gulf allies, which use the waterway to export their oil and gas.

24-25 April
Trump calls off Witkoff, Kushner trip to Pakistan for Iran peace talks
(WaPo) The president’s announcement came after Iranian officials left Pakistan on Saturday after downplaying the prospect of direct talks with U.S. officials on a deal.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the Iranian delegation that had arrived in Pakistan a day earlier was there for a bilateral visit only and was not planning to engage with the United States. “No meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the U.S.,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in an X post. “Iran’s observations would be conveyed to Pakistan.”
The scrapped U.S. trip cast more uncertainty over Trump’s efforts to end the war he launched alongside Israel in late February, saying he wanted “freedom” for the Iranian people and vowing to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials were quickly killed in strikes. But the war has dragged on — upending global oil markets and becoming a political liability for Trump — as the Iranian regime retains power and uses a key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, for leverage.
Trump dispatches Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan for new talks with Iran’s foreign minister
(AP) — President Donald Trump is sending his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan to meet with Iran’s foreign minister, the White House said Friday, as officials in the South Asian nation pushed to revive ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

22 April
Live Updates:
Iran fires on 3 ships in the Strait of Hormuz as US maintains blockade and diplomacy stalls (5:14 pm EDT)
It’s not clear when talks will restart
(AP) Iran’s ability to restrict traffic through the strait — which leads from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean — has proved a major strategic advantage
While the ceasefire means that American and Israeli airstrikes have stopped in Iran — and Tehran’s missiles no longer target Israel and the wider Middle East — the maritime standoff continues and could escalate further.
Without any diplomatic agreement, the attacks will likely deter ships from even attempting to pass through the waterway, further squeezing global energy supplies.
Reported Seizure of Ships Injects New Uncertainty Over Peace Talks
(NYT) Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had seized two ships near the Strait of Hormuz. … The reported attacks — which come as the U.S. Navy has prevented dozens of ships from accessing Iranian ports — showed that despite the efforts to turn the pause in direct hostilities into a lasting peace, neither Iran nor the United States was shying away from trying to exert control over movement in and around the strategic waterway.

Heather Cox Richardson Letters From an American April 20, 2026

Trump offers mixed messages about path ahead for US war against Iran
(AP) — President Donald Trump offered mixed messages on Monday about the path ahead for the U.S. war against Iran, declaring that he was in no rush to end the conflict while also expressing confidence that further negotiations with Tehran will soon take place in Pakistan.
With the 14-day ceasefire to expire Wednesday, Trump whipsawed in telephone interviews and social media posts between measured optimism that a deal could soon be reached and warning that “lots of bombs” will “start going off” if there’s no agreement before the ceasefire deadline.
Tehran and Trump Send Mixed Signals Ahead of Potential Talks
Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a U.S. delegation to Pakistan as Mr. Trump pushes for a peace deal. Iranian officials said privately they would send a team if Mr. Vance were there.
(NYT) A day after the U.S. Navy seized and boarded an Iranian cargo ship, a tense calm prevailed and clearer indications emerged from Washington and Tehran that they would send negotiators to Pakistan on Tuesday for a second round of peace talks.
The United States and Iran remained at an impasse over marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, however, with President Trump vowing to keep in place a blockade of Iranian ports and Iran reasserting military control of the crucial waterway. The U.S. Navy said it had so far turned back 27 ships as part of its blockade of the strait. Crude oil prices crept back up toward $100 a barrel on Monday.
Facing hard-liners at home and bluster from Trump, Iran sends mixed signals on peace talks.
Publicly, Iranian officials refuse to confirm a second round of negotiations with the United States, even as they privately say they are making plans to attend.
Vance Heads to New Talks With Iran. At Stake: Peace and His Own Standing.
The vice president is again center stage, after abruptly leaving the first round of high-level Iranian peace talks without an agreement.

18-19 April
US Opens Fire, Disables & Seizes an Iranian Ship Attempting to Break the Blockade
(WGOWS) The US conducts the first boarding and seizure of an Iranian ship attempting to break the blockade, MV Touska. The US destroyer Spruance fired into the ship and disabled it before US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit took control of the vessel. This follows on the heels of Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, April 17.

Iran War Live Updates: Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed Again as Ships Report Attacks
Iran reversed course on reopening the strategic waterway, warning it would continue to block transit as long as the U.S. blockade of ships from Iranian ports remained in effect.
Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remained volatile early Sunday after Iran said it was once again closing the vital waterway and two ships reported coming under attack.
(NYT) Just a day earlier, Iran’s military had declared the strait open to commercial ships after the start of cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said Saturday that the strait would shut down in retaliation for President Trump’s decision to leave in place a U.S. blockade on ships from Iranian ports.
Trump, Iran cite progress in talks as uncertainty hangs over Strait
By Trevor Hunnicutt, Ariba Shahid and Muhammad Al Gebaly
Tehran says gaps remain over nuclear issues, Strait of Hormuz
Trump cites ‘very good conversations’
Iran reimposes Strait of Hormuz closure
Shipping remains uncertain after vessels report gunfire
(Reuters) Iran’s top negotiator said recent talks with the U.S. had made progress but gaps remained over nuclear issues and the Strait of ​Hormuz, while President Donald Trump cited “very good conversations” with Tehran despite warning against “blackmail” over the key shipping channel.
Neither side offered any specifics about the ‌state of negotiations on Saturday, days before a fragile ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is set to expire.
For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent
Iran’s government could emerge from the conflict with a blueprint to keep adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.
The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.
It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its own geography.
Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples. It has upended war planning in the United States and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.
The U.S.-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.
Iran says no date set for next round of negotiations with US

13-15 April
Iranian state media says Iran-Pakistan talks started
By JULIA FRANKEL
(AP) Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi took part in a preliminary meeting with the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff, Asim Munir, in Tehran Wednesday, according to a report on IRIB, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.
The report said more extensive talks would continue Thursday to discuss latest communications with the US.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Wednesday that the U.S. is preparing to ramp up economic pain on Iran by levying secondary sanctions on financial institutions that do business with the Middle Eastern nation. Bessent called the measure the “financial equivalent” of the bombing campaign.
The commander of Iran’s joint military command on Wednesday threatened to halt trade in the Gulf region if the U.S. does not lift its blockade on Iranian ports. No vessels have made it past U.S. naval forces during the first 48 hours of the blockade, according to the U.S. Central Command. Even so, Trump said Wednesday the war in Iran was “very close to over.”
US, Iran Weigh Truce Extension With Hormuz Still Shuttered
(Bloomberg) The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal, according to a person familiar with the matter, reducing the prospect of a return to fighting despite an intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
Mediators between the warring sides are seeking technical talks to overcome the most contentious issues preventing an agreement that would extend beyond next week, when an initial truce will expire, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. Those include the reopening of Hormuz and the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
(The World) The commander of Iran’s joint military command warned Wednesday that Iran would completely block exports and imports across the Persian Gulf region, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea if the US military does not lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Before the two-week ceasefire expires on April 22, mediators are pushing for a compromise on three main sticking points that derailed direct talks last weekend — Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for wartime damages — according to one of the regional officials who is involved in mediation efforts.
Pakistani delegation arrives in Tehran in move to ease tensions and arrange more US-Iran talks
(AP) — Pakistan’s army chief arrived Wednesday for talks in Tehran in the latest diplomatic move to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran after almost seven weeks of war.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the U.S. will ramp up its infliction of economic pain on Iran. Bessent said the effort would be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.
The Pakistani military said the delegation also included the country’s interior minister and other senior security officials. The group is “part of the ongoing mediation efforts,” the military said, but it gave no details.

US shuts down Iran’s maritime trade despite optimism for more talks
US commander says blockade affects 90% of Iran’s economy
US, Iran teams could return to Islamabad this week, sources say
Oil prices down for second day amid optimism for peace
UK, Canada joined eight countries in condemning UN peacekeeper killings
(Reuters) – The United States said on Wednesday its military had completely halted trade going in and out of Iran by sea, even though President ​Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week.
Trump said negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials could resume in Pakistan in the ‌next two days and Vice President JD Vance, who led weekend talks that ended without a breakthrough, said he felt positive about where things stood.

Strait of Hormuz and Dueling Blockades – The United States and Iran Block Access to the Persian Gulf (video)
(What’s Going on With Shipping) The United States issues its official Notice to Mariners on the blockade of Iran going into effect on April 13, 2026. What are the major issues facing the US blockade and how will it differ from the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
What to Know About the US Blockade of Iran’s Ports
(Bloomberg) The US military separately issued a more narrow interpretation as it set a start of April 13 at 10 a.m. New York time for the blockade. It applies to all vessels “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas.”
The US said that neutral ships that haven’t called at Iran would not be impeded, though they may be searched for contraband cargo. Seafarers are advised to monitor official broadcasts and contact US naval forces when in the Gulf of Oman and approaching the Strait of Hormuz, it added.
A UK naval group that liaises between the military and civilian shipping interests said it had been informed of the US restrictions and added that additional guidelines, including routing, verification and authorized transit procedures were being developed.

A Strait of Hormuz Blockade Could Backfire on the US
Adm. (Ret’d) James Stavridis
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
US President Donald Trump has announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is an act of war and means nothing goes in or out.
The blockade could have devastating effects on Tehran’s economy and may force a change in the behavior of the Iranian regime, but it also raises questions about its legality and strategic smartness.
Implementing the blockade would require a massive naval component, including aircraft carriers, surface combatants, and air operations, and could have negative consequences for the US geopolitically, including damaging relationships with allies and other nations that depend on Iranian exports.

Iran Blockade Sets Up a Test of Which Side Can Endure More Pain
President Trump is trying to choke off the country’s lifeline with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranians are betting that his tolerance for political pain is limited.
(NYT) Almost everything about how this new turn in the war plays out is likely to look very different than what has unfolded so far.
Instead of directing missiles and bombs at military sites, missile emplacements and Iran’s defense industry, Mr. Trump will try to choke off the country’s lifeblood, the oil that accounts for more than 50 percent of its exports and just about all of the government’s revenue.
The president’s first hope, administration officials said on Sunday, is to force the government to surrender to the terms that Vice President JD Vance laid out in peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan — and that Iran rejected, just as it did in negotiations in Geneva before the war began on Feb. 28. The list of terms starts with Iran’s agreement to turn over every ounce of its uranium stockpile, permanently dismantle its huge infrastructure for producing nuclear fuel and give up its claims to regulate traffic in the strait.
Trump says US military has blockaded Iranian ports to pressure Tehran
(AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the American military had begun a blockade of Iranian ports as part of his effort to force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war that has raged for more than six weeks.
Iran responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, taking aim at U.S.-allied countries.
That set the stage for an extraordinary showdown that posed serious risks for the global economy and raised the specter that the ceasefire could collapse and the war could resume. Talks aimed at permanently ending the conflict — which began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — failed to reach an agreement this past weekend. There has been no word on whether negotiations will resume.
U.S. naval blockade taking effect as Trump demands Iran end nuclear program
Peace talks broke down over Iran’s nuclear program, which has survived two decades of international diplomacy seeking to curtail it and more than five weeks of bombing.
(WaPo) With a U.S. naval blockade taking effect on Monday, oil prices again surging past $100 a barrel and a fragile ceasefire set to expire in nine days, the United States and Iran began the week locked in a standoff after historic peace negotiations in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend.
Washington, Tehran and anxious capitals around the world are not sure how a cascade of urgent questions will resolve: Will the bombing resume when the truce runs out on April 22? What will U.S. Navy operations in the Strait of Hormuz actually entail? And is there any conceivable path to an agreement on an Iranian nuclear program that has now survived not only two decades of international diplomacy seeking to curtail it, but also more than five weeks of the most intensive military assault ever launched against Iranian territory?

11 April

No deal: Vance and Iranians fail to reach agreement after marathon session

(Politico) Vice President JD Vance and other top Trump administration officials are heading home empty handed.
Marathon negotiations with Iran in Pakistan this weekend failed to produce a breakthrough that would definitively end the war, which is entering its seventh week.
Vance, who spoke early Sunday morning local time, said the Iranians refused to give assurances that they would not try to obtain or develop a nuclear weapon.
“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” Vance said. “The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.”

US Destroyers Enter Persian Gulf – Strait Still Open? | Plus, Empty Supertankers Heading to the US (YouTube)
(What’s Going on With Shipping) On April 11, 2026, US Central Command announced that two US destroyers – USS Frank E Peterson (DDG-121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) – transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. This is part of a broader mission to ensure that the Strait is fully clear of sea mines and reopen the Internationally recognized channel between Oman and Iran, vice the one that is controlled by Iran and the IRGC. This coincided with the opening of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan. We also discuss the rerouting of empty Very Large Crude Carriers to loading ports outside of the Persian Gulf

(Politico Playbook) HOLDING THE CEASEFIRE: Direct talks on a possible end to the war in Iran between the Iranian and U.S. delegations [began] in Islamabad today following meetings with Pakistani intermediaries. Tehran outlined the red lines it says must be agreed to before any face-to-face talks can occur, Reuters’ Ariba Shahid and colleagues report. Both sides are still far apart on the Strait of Hormuz, the state of Iran’s nuclear program and reparations on the war damage — and few details are known about the Trump administration’s position going into the negotiations, WaPo’s Susannah George and Shaiq Hussain report. But in a first for the war so far, two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers passed through the Strait this morning with no issues, per WSJ.
The talks mark a major moment for VP JD Vance, who’s leading the U.S. delegation. It’s the toughest task yet for the VP, a longtime war skeptic, now unavoidably tied to the conflict, WSJ’s Philip Wegmann and Ken Thomas write.

Revamped Iranian Leadership Wary Ahead of US Peace Talks
Some hardline factions in Tehran want to continue the war. Others see the Islamabad meeting as an opportunity to refashion relations with Washington.
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
The Iranian government has used a two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel to stage public mourning rituals for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s delegation, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has arrived in Islamabad for peace talks with the US, which may precipitate a new dynamic between Tehran and Washington.
The talks’ outcome is uncertain due to various challenges, including Israel’s opposition to renewing diplomatic efforts, disagreement over the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire, and the need for the US to manage Israel’s behavior.

10 April
John Kerry: Bush, Obama, and Biden All Refused Netanyahu; Trump Is The Only President Who Agreed To Bomb Iran
(Real Clear Politics) In an interview with MS NOW’s Jen Psaki, former Secretary of State John Kerry argues that Donald Trump broke from the prior three administrations by embracing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s push for military action in Iran.

Trump says Strait of Hormuz to reopen ‘soon’ as US, Iran head to talks
Trump says Washington will not accept Iran’s imposition of a de facto toll booth system in the critical waterway.
(Al Jazeera) Trump, who did not elaborate on how Washington would unblock the critical maritime chokepoint, also said he would not accept Iran’s imposition of a de facto toll booth system in the strait.
Tehran has indicated that it intends to charge vessels fees for safe passage even in the event that a deal is reached with the US to end the war.

Why is it so difficult to open the Strait of Hormuz?
It will be dangerous to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump is visibly frustrated about the situation. He can’t end the war before the strait is opened, and he can’t open it without a major escalation.
Anders Puck Nielsen discusses what it would take and why America’s European allies are so reluctant to get involved.

World Leaders Push to Save Iran Talks Amid Israel’s Attacks in Lebanon
President Trump’s cease-fire with Iran appears at risk as Vice President JD Vance heads to Pakistan for discussions with Iranian officials.
(NYT) Even as Air Force Two carried Vice President JD Vance toward Pakistan for weekend talks with Iran, President Trump’s shaky cease-fire with Tehran was in growing jeopardy as world leaders hastened efforts to prevent a return to all-out war.
For a third day, work to prop up the cease-fire, which was announced on Tuesday, focused on Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Iran says the continued assault violates its deal with Mr. Trump to stop U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in exchange for safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has resisted international pressure to halt his country’s related campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon.

Vance Emerges as Trump’s Iran Closer, a Task Fraught With Risk
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Vice President JD Vance is leading a US delegation to Islamabad for face-to-face talks with Iranian officials, which could determine whether a ceasefire turns into a lasting peace.
The outcome of the talks is also high-stakes for Vance, who could burnish his credibility on the world stage if he succeeds, but damage his standing if he fails.
Vance will be accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and his presence in the talks could signal to the Iranians that the US is serious about negotiations.
After being out of sight for pivotal moments of the war against Iran, Vice President JD Vance is stepping onto center stage.
The outcome could determine whether a tenuous two-week ceasefire turns into a lasting peace or ultimately unravels and plunges the region into further conflict.

8 April
Trump Made a Deal That Gives Him Nothing He Wanted
BY NANCY A. YOUSSEF
U.S. declarations of victory ring hollow.
(The Atlantic) More than 12,000 U.S. missiles, bombs, and drones hit Iranian targets over the past five weeks, destroying the country’s navy and much of its military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s leaders and some 1,500 of its citizens were killed, including more than 170 who died in a strike on a girls’ school that was the apparent result of errant targeting. But 12 hours after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilization and weeks after demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire last night while settlement talks play out. Among the president’s initial war goals—preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon; eliminating its ballistic-missile capabilities; laying the ground for a popular overthrow of the regime; and eradicating Iranian proxies in the Persian Gulf—none have been met.

5-6 April
6 Takeaways From Trump’s News Conference on Iran
President Trump described the risky mission to rescue an Air Force colonel whose fighter jet had been shot down, but he offered no clear path out of the war.
Trump widens threat to all of Iran’s power plants and bridges as his deadline for a deal approaches
(AP) — President Donald Trump on Monday expanded his threat against Iran to include all power plants and bridges as his ultimatum to make a deal ticked closer, after Tehran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and said it wants a permanent end to the war.
Tehran with its rejection conveyed its own, 10-point plant to end the fighting through Pakistan, a key mediator, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said.
“We only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again,” Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, head of Iran’s diplomatic mission in Cairo, told The Associated Press. He said Iran no longer trusts the Trump administration after the U.S. bombed the Islamic Republic twice during previous rounds of talks.
• In an effort to stop the fighting, Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators have sent Iran and the U.S. a proposal that calls for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to give time to try to find a way to end the war, two Mideast officials have told The Associated Press. Iran and the U.S. have not responded to the proposal, sent late Sunday night to both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff, the officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private negotiations.

Trump threatens ‘hell’ for Iran over Hormuz Strait as deadline approaches
US president threatens to strike power plants and bridges on Tuesday in an expletive-laden social media post.
(Al Jazeera) “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****** Strait, you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
On March 26, Trump set a 10-day deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. … He told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was currently negotiating with the US and that he believed the two could reach a deal before the deadline.
Iranian officials have slammed Trump’s threats and promised to retaliate for any attacks on their infrastructure.

3 April
Iran’s ‘new’ regime looks much the same, only harsher
(CNN) US President Donald Trump said this week that Iran’s new leadership is “less radical and much more reasonable.” Trump and the Pentagon have repeatedly claimed that regime change has happened.
“If you look already because the one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people,” Trump said earlier this week. “So, I would consider that regime change.”
But what most political scientists and analysts would consider regime change involves an outside power transforming how a country is governed, not merely replacing the people at the top of that system.
By definition, regime change is systemic change – something that has yet to be seen in the Islamic Republic, which remains under the same authoritarian theocracy that has been in place since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
If anything, the war has given more power to the hard-line military factions inside the complex system of Iranian governance, as well as bolstered anti-American sentiments.

Downed U.S. Jet and Missing Crew Member Raise Stakes in War
(NYT) The F-15E was the first American warplane shot down by Iran in the five-week war and a crew member is missing. A second U.S. combat plane crashed in the Gulf region and its pilot was rescued, U.S. officials said.
The U.S. plane shot down by Iran has two crew members, and the fate of the second airman was unclear. One was rescued, but U.S. forces are mounting a large search and rescue operation in hostile territory to find the second crew member.

2 April
Trump warns Tehran ‘more to follow’ after strike destroys Iran’s largest bridge
(The Guardian) Eight people reported killed in attack on newly completed suspension bridge after strike splits structure in half
Strikes Hit Infrastructure Sites in Iran After Trump’s Threat
President Trump celebrated an attack on a major highway bridge outside of Tehran after vowing to take Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” And a leading public health institution in the country was destroyed.

1-2 April
ump-iran-war-speech/686663/”>Maybe Trump Should Not Have Given This SpeechHis address raised more questions than it answered about the war in Iran.By Tom Nichols(The Atlantic) Americans have been waiting for their president and commander in chief to address the nation and explain why the country is at war. For weeks, Donald Trump has offered only snippets and sound bites about his decision to lead the United States into another conflict in the Middle East; his prime-time address this evening was, one assumes, aimed at informing and reassuring the American public…. Trump’s critics (including me) have castigated him for refusing to go on television and provide a comprehensive explanation of the war to the American people. But given his performance this evening, perhaps he had the right instinct. His address did not come across as a wartime speech but instead was a disjointed series of complaints, brags, and exaggerations (along with a few outright lies) delivered by a man who looked and sounded tired. …Americans could be forgiven for being even more concerned now than they were only a few days ago.Trump warns US will hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ over next two to three weeks
The president said the U.S. is “very close” to finishing its objectives in Iran.
(Politico Eu) President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the U.S. is getting “very close” to finishing its objectives in Iran but warned that the next two weeks will involve intense military activity.
“We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,” the president said in his first primetime address since the war in Iran began. “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”
5 Takeaways From Trump’s Address on Iran
During a prime-time address on Wednesday, President Trump said the United States was on track to complete its military objectives in Iran but offered no clear timeline to end the war..
(NYT) In a 19-minute speech from the White House, Mr. Trump said Iran’s missiles and drone systems have been “dramatically curtailed and their weapons factories and rocket launches are being blown to pieces.”
Although the U.S. and Israeli militaries have destroyed many of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers in airstrikes, Iran continues to fire missiles in the region.
Still, Mr. Trump described the military action as a major success and called on Americans, who are uneasy about its costs, to keep things in perspective. He estimated that the war should wind down within three weeks.
–Trump did not define a clear path out.
Mr. Trump oscillated between endorsing negotiations to end the war and promising an escalation of violence.
–He urged Americans to keep the war in perspective.
He did not explicitly empathize with the economic pain Americans are feeling, but Mr. Trump maintained that the war was worth it to eliminate what he argued was the threat from Iran.
–He appeared to rule out a raid to capture Iran’s enriched uranium.
Mr. Trump said that Iran’s nuclear sites have been hit so hard that “it would take months to get near the nuclear dust.” He said the United States has satellites monitoring the sites
–He said the Strait of Hormuz is not America’s problem.
The president repeated his demands that the countries that import oil from the Persian Gulf via the strait take the lead in forcing Iran to reopen it.
–He hailed the Venezuela operation as a model for Iran, again.
Transcript
Trump Downplays Uranium Threat, Sending More Conflicting Signals
(NYT) Just hours before he is scheduled to deliver a speech in Washington, President Trump said he no longer cares about the enriched uranium that Tehran still possesses because it is buried deep underground, as he continued to offer conflicting signals about how soon the war could end.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz matters for the U.S. economy.
President Trump has suggested that reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was a problem for other countries to resolve.
America produces “plenty” of its own energy to use and sell, Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday, addressing countries that are having trouble securing jet fuel because of Iran’s blockade on the strait that carries a quarter of the world’s oil. These nations, he wrote, should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”
He later told CBS News that the U.S. military was “not yet” ready to pull back from the effort to reopen the strait, while reinforcing that other countries were “going to have to come in and do their own work.” Early on Wednesday he posted that he would consider a cease-fire only when the waterway was “open, free, and clear.”
Fareed: Trump is looking to ‘simply leave’ Iran war
(CNN YouTube) “It seems as though they’re preparing for a strategy where they simply leave”: CNN’s Fareed Zakaria reacts to President Trump’s comments that the US could end its war with Iran within two to three weeks.
Trump has no good options in Iran—here are 5 of them ahead of his speech to the nation tonight
(Fortune) Trump teases an end to the conflict with Iran
President Trump will give a speech to the nation at 9 p.m. EST this evening “to provide an important update on Iran,” the White House said. The speech will follow a confusing set of messages issued by the Trump administration yesterday on whether it was preparing to wind down its war in the Persian Gulf.
On Tuesday, Trump said the war could end in “two or three weeks” even if it meant leaving without a peace deal and abandoning the Strait of Hormuz to Iran’s control. “Go get your own oil!” the president chided his allies on Truth Social. …
However: War Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to rule out boots on the ground.

15 March
The Gulf Will Never Be the Same
(Bloomberg) Moments of sudden violence can alter the history of nations. Before 1990, Kuwait stood apart from its neighbors — an open society with a participatory political system and modern infrastructure. Then Iraqi tanks rolled in, and something deeper than buildings collapsed. That psychological rupture reversed decades of progress. Now Iranian missiles arc across Gulf skies, and history is threatening to repeat its cruel lesson.
The trauma will outlast the missiles, and may also reshape how the Gulf deploys its wealth. The longer the war burns, the deeper the transformation.
What might that transformation look like? First off, defense spending: Gulf states already rank among the world’s heaviest defense spenders for nations not at war. The current conflict will accelerate that trend.
Second, Gulf states are realizing that their elaborate and expensive courtship of Trump bought them remarkably little. Not every Gulf state will draw the same conclusions, and the US security umbrella remains a pillar of Gulf defense. Nonetheless, the relationship with Washington may be entering its most complicated chapter yet.
Third, the war has exposed the Strait of Hormuz as a dangerous chokepoint the Gulf can no longer ignore. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah link have proved their value during the disruption. Both of these bypass Hormuz, though neither is immune to potential disruption. Expect serious investment in expanding both. The goal: Never be held hostage by a single strait.
Lastly, the war may deepen fault lines between Gulf states. How to handle a weakened or a changed Iran, how much distance to keep from Israel, how far to trust Washington, where Turkey fits — these questions have no shared answer. …
13 March
The Trauma of Conflict in Iran Will Reshape the Gulf
By Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary, Bloomberg Economics
After the missiles, Arab states will rethink everything from defense and regional alliances to overseas investment and their role in global markets.
Iran’s retaliation against US and Israeli air strikes has stunned its Arab neighbors, whose worst nightmares are playing out. Iran has hit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait hard. Even Oman, Tehran’s trusted backchannel and longtime mediator, has not been spared.
The Gulf states have intercepted most of the Iranian projectiles. But the strikes have still paralyzed airports, ports, and energy arteries. People died in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The assault has rattled both citizens and the large foreign resident population.

9 March
Should the Gulf states join attacks on Iran?
A lack of trust in America and Israel, internal divisions and the risk of domestic strife all hamper a unified response
(The Economist) Over the past ten days, war has brought a traumatic consensus. Since America and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th, more than 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones have rained down on Gulf states. The pain has not been equally distributed—more than half of Iran’s attacks thus far have been aimed at the United Arab Emirates (uae), compared with only a handful at Oman—but it has been felt everywhere. One of the most recent drone attacks, on March 9th, hit Bahrain’s sole oil refinery, injuring 32 people and leading the state-run oil company to declare force majeure.
Yet there is no unity on how to respond. That is not only because of long-standing disagreements between states, but also within them: some officials urge restraint, while others seek retaliation. Gulf states are paralysed because they do not trust any of the parties to this war—including themselves.

2025

19 May
Trump makes the Gulf states feel powerful, but the real test is: can they stop Israel’s war?
Nesrine Malik
The US president’s deference to his Middle Eastern allies is hollow if they cannot affect what happens in their own back yard
The Democrats lectured while abjectly failing to enforce the standards of international law. Trump is dispensing with the pretence of international law altogether, and in doing so ending the theatre that the US was ever some virtuous protagonist in the region. The result is a transactionalism of equals, the billion dollar deals and quid pro quos cut in plain sight. For the three Gulf countries that Trump visited, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Trump’s recognition of their colossal national projects in economic transformation, and political positioning in terms of foreign policy, slaked an appetite to be seen. To be acknowledged not just as wealthy ignoramuses to be managed, but sophisticated power brokers in their own right.
There is a particular brand, that is still being finessed, of shaping politics in the region and diversifying from natural resources. Take the UAE’s financing of a devastating war in Sudan in order to get a foothold on the African continent, and, at the other end of the spectrum, Qatar’s quiet emergence as the negotiating capital of the world.
What is clear is that the centre of gravity is shifting for the US away from European capitals and transatlantic alliances, towards a region that, as far as Trump is concerned, is not bothering him with any moral condemnations on Ukraine, doesn’t have the pesky matter of a voting public to worry about, and has spare billions to invest and flamboyantly flatter. Keir Starmer can have a good stab at getting Trump on side by offering a “historic” royal invitation for a state visit, but can he project the stars and stripes on the world’s tallest building?

4 March
Arab states adopt Egyptian alternative to Trump’s ‘Gaza Riviera’
Middle East leaders seek alternative to U.S. takeover of Gaza
Major question of who rules Gaza in the future remain unanswered
Egyptian plan calls for $53 billion in funding to rebuild
Abbas says Palestinian elections are possible
(Reuters) – Arab leaders adopted an Egyptian reconstruction plan for Gaza on Tuesday that would cost $53 billion and avoid resettling Palestinians, in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Middle East Riviera” vision, according to a copy of the plan.
Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that the proposal had been accepted at the closing of a summit in Cairo.
Arab leaders adopt Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s plan for Gaza counters the US proposal to take over the enclave.
(Al Jazeera) An Arab summit convened in Cairo has adopted an Egyptian plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said.
Egypt’s plan includes an initial recovery phase aimed at de-mining the territory and providing temporary housing, followed by a longer reconstruction phase focused on rebuilding essential infrastructure, according to media reports.
Other key questions about Gaza’s future include who will govern the enclave and which countries will provide the billions of dollars needed for the reconstruction of the devastated territory.
Mahmoud Abbas welcomes Egypt’s Gaza plan
(Al Jazeera) The Palestinian president says the call to transfer the population of Gaza from their homelands is “categorically rejected”.
“We thank all Arab and European states who have taken the initiative and were quick to reject this irresponsible and inhumane call,” he said, speaking at an Arab League summit that aims to counter President Trump’s proposal for Gaza.
Arab leaders meet in Cairo for high-stakes summit on Gaza reconstruction
Heads of state and top officials from the 22-member League of Arab States will vote on an Egyptian proposal for a phased reconstruction plan for Gaza.

1 March
Saudi Arabia, other Muslim countries welcome start of Ramadan
Hundreds of millions of Muslims begin the holy month of fasting this weekend.
Many of the more than 1.8 billion Muslims across the world have begun fasting for the holy month of Ramadan.
Saudi Arabia and most other Middle Eastern states welcomed the start of Ramadan late on Friday after the crescent moon was sighted in the kingdom, which is home to Islam’s two holiest sites.
Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Sudan and Tunisia announced they too would begin the daytime fast on Saturday as well as in the Palestinian territory of war-torn Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Sunni Muslims in Lebanon also began fasting on Saturday.
The office of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and Iraq’s top Shia cleric, Ali al-Sistani, declared Sunday as the first day of Ramadan.
Morocco will also start observing the daytime fast from Sunday, its Ministry of Islamic Affairs announced.
And in Southeast Asia, the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, Indonesia, began Ramadan on Saturday while neighbouring countries like Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines will usher in the month on Sunday.
When is Ramadan 2025, and how is the moon sighted?
The first day of fasting for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in Mecca will be Saturday, March 1

19 February
Alarmed by Trump’s Gaza Plan, Arab Leaders Brainstorm on Their Own
Since President Trump suggested depopulating Gaza, Arab officials have suggested other ideas for reconstruction. But the emerging consensus repackages old plans as new ones.
(NYT) Representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are quietly coordinating to form an alternative vision for Gaza in which Arab countries would help fund and oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, while keeping its residents in place and preserving the possibility of a Palestinian state, according to diplomats and officials briefed on the endeavor.
Envoys from all five countries are set to flesh out the details on Friday in Saudi Arabia, and then again at a bigger summit on March 4 in Cairo. At those meetings, Egypt will likely propose forming a committee of Palestinian technocrats and community leaders, all unaffiliated with Hamas, who could run Gaza after the war, according to two Arab diplomats, a senior Western official and Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland. Mr. Van Hollen said he spoke over the last week with the Egyptian, Saudi and Jordanian foreign ministers about the evolving proposal.

9 February
Egypt announces emergency Arab summit after Trump’s Gaza plan infuriates key allies
(AP) — Egypt announced Sunday that it will host an emergency Arab summit on Feb. 27 to discuss “new and dangerous developments” after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.
Trump’s suggestion, made at a White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, infuriated the Arab world, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia — key allies of Washington.
Both Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Jordanian King Abdullah II dismissed Trump’s call to resettle 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza and for the U.S. to take ownership of the enclave, but Trump claims that they would eventually accept it.
A statement from Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said it would host the Arab League summit in Cairo following talks at the highest level in Arab countries in recent days, “including the state of Palestine that asked to hold the summit in order to discuss new and dangerous developments for the Palestinian cause.”

2024

31 July-1 August
Iran and its allies mourn militant leaders, vow revenge against Israel
Mourners in Iran and Lebanon commemorated slain Hamas and Hezbollah officials as they signaled that the outburst of violence in the region may be far from over.
High-Profile Assassinations Push Iran and Israel to the Brink of War
A tense showdown risks spiraling out of control.
(Foreign Policy) Conflict in the Middle East has escalated once again after twin high-profile strikes of Israeli arch-enemies.
(Financial Times) Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a strike in Tehran yesterday; Iran blames Israel and has vowed to avenge his death. The news came just hours after Israel said it killed a senior Hizbollah commander in Beirut. That strike, says Israel, was revenge for a deadly attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The cycle of escalation is looking even more dangerous than usual.
Israel and Iran have been to the brink before now, but so far have just about pulled back every time. As our Middle East editor Andrew England writes, the risk of all-out war is now rising sharply.
The Aftermath of the Haniyeh Killing: How to Avoid a New Middle East War
(Just Security) For months, Israel has been “on the brink” of war with Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran. That threshold may now have been crossed. On July 30, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) acknowledged killing Lebanese Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in Beirut, the commander they claim is responsible for the rocket attack over the weekend that killed a dozen children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Twelve hours later, Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike at his residence in northern Tehran after attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The attacks have elevated tensions at a time when the region is teetering on the edge of all-out war. But escalation is not inevitable. Through strategic diplomacy and the clear communication of red lines, there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to pull all sides back from the precipice.

20 July
Israel strikes Yemen after Houthis claimed drone attack in Tel Aviv
Israel’s attack Saturday heralded a further expansion of the war in Gaza, and added a volatile new dynamic to what has become a building regional conflict.
Israel said Saturday that it had carried out airstrikes on a port city in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militant group, in an attack that sparked massive fires and caused deaths and injuries, the Israel Defense Forces and the Houthi-run Masirah news channel said.
Israel attacks Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah
(Al Jazeera) Houthi-run media say Israeli air strikes have targeted oil storage facilities in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah and that there are an unspecified number of fatalities and injuries.
The Israeli military says it struck “military targets” of Houthis in response to attacks on Israel.

19 July
Gaza conflict could fuel IS and al-Qaida revival, security experts warn
Officials and analysts warn of evidence of increased Islamic State and al-Qaida militant activity across Middle East
Security services across the Middle East fear the conflict in Gaza will allow Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaida to rebuild across the region, leading to a wave of terrorist plots in coming months and years.
Officials and analysts say there is already evidence of increased Islamic militant extremism in many places, although multiple factors are combining to cause the surge.
In recent months, an IS branch in the Sinai desert has become more lethal, rising attacks by the group in Syria have caused concern, and plots in Jordan have been thwarted.

19 June
The Bigger Game: Israel and Saudi Arabia vs. Iran
By Gwynne Dyer
US interests and Biden’s own political future both now require that this war stops and that Netanyahu relinquishes power. Biden certainly has the means to make these things happen, and if he does not come to the right decision himself, those around him will probably impose it on him.
I’d bet on a permanent ceasefire and a hostage release within a month, six weeks tops.
>Gaza, IDF, Hamas, Netanyahu, famine, terrorism, genocide, and on and on: the loud, incessant clatter of local issues and tactical moves almost drowns out the low, grinding noise as the Middle East shifts inexorably into a new strategic alignment. But it’s happening, and it’s still about oil, sort of.
Israel has no oil, and the Palestinians have nothing worth stealing except their land. Iran and Saudi Arabia are much bigger, but they would be no more important in strategic and economic terms than Thailand and South Africa if they weren’t jointly sitting on 29% of the world’s oil reserves.
Most of America’s great-power allies and/or rivals – China, India, Japan and the bigger members of the European Union – still depend heavily on oil imported from the Gulf. Military control of access to the Gulf therefore remains a high priority in American strategy: Washington can keep the Strait of Hormuz open for its friends and close it to its enemies.
America’s major ally in the Gulf for fifty years now has been Saudi Arabia. The alliance is founded on the fact that both countries see Iran, just across the Gulf, as a dangerous enemy. The US provides the military power and Riyadh gives Washington a voracious market for US-made weapons and steady support for the US dollar.
There was only one persistent irritant in this long and cozy relationship: US support for Israel. It has never been a show-stopper, but Washington would obviously prefer to reconcile its two major Middle Eastern allies. Recently, it thought it had spotted a chance.

11 June
America Is Losing the Arab World
And China Is Reaping the Benefits
By Michael Robbins, Amaney A. Jamal, and Mark Tessler
(Foreign Affairs) Hamas’s [7 October] assault and Israel’s subsequent devastating military operation in Gaza have curtailed [the] march toward normalization. Saudi Arabia has stated that it will not proceed with a normalization deal until Israel takes clear steps to facilitate the establishment of a Palestinian state. Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel in November 2023, and a visit to Morocco by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned for late 2023 never materialized. Arab leaders have watched warily as their citizens have grown vocally opposed to the war in Gaza. In many Arab countries, thousands have turned out to protest Israel’s war and the humanitarian crisis it has produced. Protesters in Jordan and Morocco have also called for an end to their countries’ respective peace treaties with Israel, voicing frustration that their governments are not listening to the people.
October 7 may turn out to be a watershed moment for the United States, too. Because of the war in Gaza, Arab public opinion has turned sharply against Israel’s staunchest ally, the United States—a development that could confound U.S. efforts not only to help resolve the crisis in Gaza but also to contain Iran and push back against China’s growing influence in the Middle East. Since 2006, Arab Barometer, the nonpartisan research organization we run, has conducted biannual nationally representative opinion surveys in 16 Arab countries, capturing ordinary citizens’ views in a region that has little opinion polling. After the United States’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, other polls consistently found that few ordinary Arab citizens held positive views of the United States. By 2022, however, their attitudes had improved somewhat, with at least a third of respondents in nearly all countries Arab Barometer surveyed affirming that they held “a very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of the United States.

17 May
A Conversation with Dr. Michael Robbins on Public Opinion in the Arab World
(Wilson Center) Arab Barometer Director Dr. Michael Robbins discusses various aspects of Arab public opinion on the war in Gaza, noting the significant shifts in sentiment following the events of October 7. He discusses the favorability towards the United States across the region, contrasting this with increased support for China’s image. Dr. Robbins also examines how Russia is perceived in the region, providing insights into the complexities of its reputation. Furthermore, he addresses the enduring support for a two-state solution, highlighting the nuanced perspectives and aspirations of the Arab public regarding this long-standing issue.