Brazil 2025-

G20 Brazil 2024
Brazil July 2021-2024

AI Overview
The Amazon Rainforest
The Amazon rainforest is the world’s largest tropical rainforest, covering a vast area of the Amazon Basin in South America, primarily in Brazil but extending into eight other countries. Renowned for its incredible biodiversity, it contains millions of species and a significant portion of the planet’s trees and freshwater fish. The Amazon plays a crucial role in global climate regulation, but it faces severe threats from deforestation, large-scale farming, mining, and climate change, which are driving alarming rates of ecosystem degradation

3 October
Brazil’s neck-and-neck election offers test for growing pro-Trump Latin American bloc
Sunday’s poll pits the leftist incumbent Lula against the son of a former far-right president convicted of staging a coup
‘No one disrespects Our Lady’: fears for Brazil’s patron saint grip country ahead of election
(The Guardian) Shortly after his controversial speech to the United Nations general assembly in September, Donald Trump gathered a dozen like-minded Latin American leaders and boasted that rightwing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since he began his second term.
Those electoral victories – and the US takeover of Venezuela after capturing Nicolás Maduro – have left just six Latin American countries under leftwing governments: regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico, small Uruguay and Guatemala, and the isolated regimes of Cuba and Nicaragua.

Brazilians will vote in a highly polarized presidential race on Sunday. Here’s what to know
(AP) — Millions of Brazilians will vote Sunday in an election dominated by two rivals: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro who Lula defeated four years ago.
Twelve candidates are on the presidential ballot, but only Lula and Bolsonaro are thought to have a real chance of becoming Brazil’s next head of state. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top 2 will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.
Lula, who at 80 is one of the world’s oldest heads of state, is running in his seventh presidential election. Bolsonaro, 45, is competing in his first and seeking to return his family name to power after his father governed Brazil from 2019 through 2022.
The two represent opposite sides of the political spectrum, with conflicting visions on issues ranging from how to tackle organized crime to the relationship Latin America’s biggest country should have with the Trump administration.
Brazil holds general elections every four years, and voting is mandatory. Those who fail to cast a ballot without justification face a small fine.
On Sunday, Brazilians will choose a president, state and federal representatives as well as governors and some senators. Elections for mayors and city councilors are also held every four years, but in different years.
A historically popular leader tries for a fourth term
Lula, who got his start as a union worker and has a missing pinky finger following an accident in a factory when he was 19, has at times inspired cult-like devotion. He spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled before winning a third nonconsecutive term in 2022.
Former U.S. President Barack Obama once called him “the world’s most popular politician.” But during his current term, Lula’s approval ratings fell as low as 24%, one of his lowest levels. Voters’ concerns about crime and the cost of living could hurt him at the ballot box. He has promised to ensure Brazilians are the ones to benefit from the country’s rare minerals and resources, protect the Amazon rainforest and continue his flagship welfare program Bolsa Familia.
Sen. Bolsonaro promises to follow in his father’s footsteps
With former President Jair Bolsonaro barred from running as he serves a 27-year-long sentence for a coup attempt, his eldest son has largely embraced his father’s ultra-conservative agenda, while at times trying to strike a more moderate communication style to attract centrist voters.
His hardline security policies have been a pillar of his campaign, and polls show these proposals are popular among Brazilians. The senator has pledged to fight the country’s criminal groups by building El Salvador-style megaprisons, following the Trump administration’s lead by designating transnational gangs terrorist organizations and reducing the age to be tried as an adult to 16.
Deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, which plays a vital role in stopping climate change, hit a record high under former President Bolsonaro. His son has also denied human-caused climate change and only committed to stopping illegal deforestation.
Sen. Bolsonaro’s admission of accepting millions of dollars from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father’s life has cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case.

28 September
Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest
A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America
(Chatham House) … This year’s contest is more than a familial grudge match. For one, it looks a lot like recent presidential elections in the region. In June, elections in both Peru and Colombia went to a second round. Each resulted in a narrow victory for conservative candidates who, like the Bolsonaros, are aligned with the regional diplomatic agenda of US President Donald Trump.
Another tight contest now looms in Brazil, the most populous country and largest democracy in Latin America, the tenth largest economy in the world, and for decades an international champion of the Global South, through blocs like BRICS.
Both Lula and the younger Bolsonaro face high levels of voter rejection. More than 54 per cent of Brazilian voters disapprove of Flavio according to one poll. Lula does little better in the same survey, with 52 per cent against the president running for a fourth term.
Brazilian voters are divided over a number of issues relating to Brazil’s political system and its place in the world.
According to a Pew survey conducted in Brazil in early 2026, only 37 per cent of Brazilian voters were satisfied with their democracy, down from 66 per cent in 2013. And Brazilians are ideologically split on favourable views of China versus the US.
57 per cent of Brazilians who identify as leftist have favourable views of China, compared to 40 per cent of those on the right. Those opinions flip on attitudes towards the US: 58 per cent of self-identified right-leaning voters have favourable views of the US, while only 30 per cent on the other side of the ideological spectrum do.
Division on these issues indicates that this election could have major implications for the direction of Brazil’s foreign policy, its global influence, and the PT foreign policy agenda since 2003.
… Fuelling this division is an escalating diplomatic row with the administration of US President Donald Trump. In July, the US imposed new 25 per cent tariffs on some Brazilian goods. The same month, the Brazilian government denied visas to two US envoys, accusing them of planning to meddle in elections – a charge the US State Department called a ‘baseless lie’.
The diplomatic dispute has escalated further, with the White House revoking the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the US, and Lula’s office accusing the US of ‘a deliberate escalation of hostile measures against Brazil, motivated by ideological reasons’. In his speech at the UN General Assembly on 22 September, Lula warned against foreign interference in the election.
…a Bolsonaro government would probably adhere to Trump’s approach on various issues, including a more martial approach to narcotics trafficking and transnational criminal networks operating in or from Brazil. It will likely see Brazil joining Trump’s Shield of the Americas initiative.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidency would also bring a U-turn to PT-focused foreign policy agendas. It would trigger, if not a pulling out, then a significantly reduced role in the BRICS group, which Trump has criticized for ‘anti-American policies’. And Brazil might well draw back from other global forums, such as the UN, the G20, and COP where Brasilia has staked its claim as a representative of the Global South.
In reality, under the PT, Brazil’s track record in supporting multilateralism has been spotty. Often it has been partisan in defending human rights and democracy even in its own neighbourhood.

18 August
Lula vs Bolsonaro kicks off
The first round is on Sunday October 4th. A runoff (if no candidate clears 50% in the first) would be on Sunday October 25th.
(International Intrigue) The frontrunners for Brazil’s presidential elections just launched their campaigns on Sunday, ahead of what’s shaping up as a race tighter than your jeans after Carnival.
Yes, there’s the sheer drama of 214 million folks picking between two starkly different visions, whether via the incumbent left’s Lula or the right’s Bolsonaro Jr.
But there’s also what that all means for…
A leading source of critical minerals like niobium (infra, energy, defence)
The world’s top exporter of soybeans, coffee, beef, and sugar, and
A key swing player in this century’s East-West race for dominance.
Runoff polls have narrowed sharply to a technical tie, with Lula slightly favoured in a second round. In parallel, Brazilian assets (Ibovespa, real, and bonds) are shuddering at the mix of uncertainty plus Lula favourability.

2025

UN Climate Change Conference –
UNFCC COP 30
Belém, 10-21 November 2025

31 October – 4 November
Cruise Ships Arrive in Belém to Boost Accommodations for COP30
With investments of R$233 million in the requalification of the Outeiro Port, the terminal is ready to receive passengers starting Wednesday, November 5
The two cruise ships that will serve as floating hotels for COP30 delegations and other participants arrived at the Port of Outeiro in Belém (PA) on Tuesday, November 4. Together, the vessels will offer around 6,000 beds. Guests will be able to check in starting Wednesday, November 5.
The chartering of the ships (MSC Seaview and Costa Diadema) is part of the federal government’s strategy to expand lodging capacity in Belém during COP30. The goal is to ensure adequate and affordable accommodations for the thousands of conference participants, reinforcing Brazil’s commitment to an inclusive, sustainable, and successful COP.
The journey between the ships and Parque da Cidade, the venue for the conference, will take about 30 minutes. Transportation will be provided by official buses operating continuously and free of charge. Covering just under 20 km, the route includes dedicated BRT lanes and a newly inaugurated express bridge opened in October. Before the bridge was built, travel time was nearly double.
Brazil’s Belém Is Attempting a Billion-Dollar Transformation
The city aims to reinvent itself with new parks, museums and hotels to host the COP30 climate conference. But what happens when the spotlight fades?
(Bloomberg) The Brazilian government’s decision to host COP in Belém underscores the city’s historic role as the entry point to the Amazon — vital to the global fight against climate change — while also drawing attention to the challenges faced by the millions who call the region home. In many ways, Belém tells the story of urban Amazonia, a region rich in resources but short on opportunity. Dependent on mining, agriculture and energy, its economy offers limited formal jobs, leaving more than half of Pará’s population in informal work and many young people without clear prospects.
Belém has the highest proportion of slums among Brazil’s capitals, with about 57% of its residents living in favelas, according to the national statistics agency. Some of these are stilt houses built over river waters in the city center, which flood from time to time. Others are clusters of wooden homes spread across low-lying outskirts, most without access to the public water network — only 19% of the city is connected to a sewage system.

10 September
Brazil Invited the World to the Amazon. It’s Become a Big Headache.
(NYT) This year’s U.N. climate conference, on the edge of the rainforest, is fueling criticism of the host nation and the entire process of global diplomacy on climate change.
(NYT) Brazil, self-described champion of developing nations, invited the world’s dignitaries into the Amazon rainforest to showcase solutions to the global crisis of climate change.
Now, with just eight weeks before negotiations begin, Brazil faces a diplomatic migraine.
… Amid all this, Brazil hasn’t found a way to resolve a basic problem threatening the coming talks. Many diplomats are complaining of an acute scarcity of affordable rooms in Belém, the host city. Two-thirds of countries have yet to book a room.
30 July
UN holds emergency talks over sky-high accommodation costs at Cop30 in Brazil
Concerns poorer countries could be priced out of negotiations in Belém as room rates soar amid shortage

31-August -11 September 2025
Brazil’s supreme court finds Bolsonaro guilty of plotting military coup
Former president faces decades-long jail sentence for seeking to forcibly cling to power after losing 2022 election
A majority of Brazil’s supreme court judges have voted to convict the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a military coup, leaving the far-right populist facing a decades-long sentence for leading the criminal conspiracy.
Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha ruled on ​Thursday that Bolsonaro – a former paratrooper who was elected president in 2018 – was guilty of seeking to forcibly cling to power after losing the 2022 election, meaning three of the five judges involved in the trial had found Brazil’s former leader guilty.
Delivering her decisive vote, Rocha denounced what she called an attempt to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” in Brazil – but celebrated how the country’s institutions had survived and were fighting back.
“Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” Rocha told a court in the capital, Brasília, warning of the spread of “the virus of authoritarianism”.
… Progressive elation at the downfall of a president blamed for rampant environment destruction, hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths and attacks on minorities, has been tempered by the realisation that his political movement remains very much alive. Some fear Fux’s questioning of the judges’ authority over the case could open the door to legal challenges and even the trial’s annulment in the future.
5 September
Anatomy of a coup plot: why Jair Bolsonaro is on trial
The former Brazilian president and seven close allies are awaiting judgment – and conviction is seen as highly likely
uiz Inácio Lula da Silva was days away from taking office for his third term as the Brazilian president when soldiers from a special operations unit allegedly discussed the best way to kill him – possibly through poisoning or administering drugs that would trigger “organ failure”.
Investigators would later conclude that the supposed plan to assassinate the president-elect, his vice-president and a supreme court justice was one of many strands of a wider plot designed to keep the far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro in power.
At the end of 2022, Lula had just won the elections and was staying at a hotel in the capital, Brasília, while a police officer leaked details of his security apparatus to the special ops.
Meanwhile, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, already responsible for the main cases against Bolsonaro, was allegedly targeted by heavily armed soldiers who took up positions near his home, awaiting the final order to kill him.
31 August
‘I’m holding his political wake’: the trumpeter waiting to mark Bolsonaro’s judgment day
Brazil’s ex-president is expected to be convicted over failed coup – and Fabiano Leitão, who has provoked him for years, is ready
…Leitão is among millions of progressive Brazilians who have the metaphorical champagne on ice ahead of the widely anticipated conviction of Bolsonaro and seven alleged co-conspirators when their judgment begins this week.
Seven years after the former paratrooper swept to power on a wave of social media-fuelled anti-establishment voter rage, and three after voters removed him from office, Bolsonaro is careering towards the lowest point of his 35-year political career.
On Tuesday, five supreme court judges will convene in Brasília to rule on whether Bolsonaro is guilty of masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election to his leftwing opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – and, if so, how long he should spend in jail.

12 August
The Amazon Rainforest Approaches a Point of No Return
In “Amazon Tipping Point” — Third-Place Winner of the 2025 Yale Environment 360 Film Contest — Brazilian filmmakers capture striking images of clear-cutting and explore how human activity is so damaging the world’s largest rainforest that it will not be able to recover.
Under increasing threats from rampant deforestation and climate change, portions of the Amazon now emit more carbon to the atmosphere than they absorb. The southern Amazon, in particular, has become hotter and drier, with less soil moisture, lowered water tables, and a higher than normal rate of tree mortality. Scientists now believe the Amazon could reach its tipping point — when it loses its natural ability to regenerate and will become permanently degraded — as soon as 2050. The impacts will reverberate globally.

Global Conference on Climate and Health 2025
July 29–31, Brasília

(WHO) …hosted by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Panamerican Health Organization (PAHO). This event also served as the annual in-person meeting of ATACH, providing a key platform to highlight the role of ambitious and equitable climate action in global health.
Main outcomes of the Conference included:
Concrete inputs to the Belém Health Action Plan’s draft;
Articulation of countries’ responsibilities and commitments under ATACH to support the Belém Health Action Plan;
Defined pathways to promote health as a core pillar of climate action in the lead-up to COP30;
Scientific deliverables to support the implementation of the Belém Health Action Plan.

9 July
Trump hits Brazil with 50% tariff over ‘witch hunt’ trial of ex-leader Bolsonaro
‘I think he has been misinformed,’ Brazil’s vice-president says of U.S. president
(CBC) U.S. President Donald Trump singled out Brazil for import taxes of 50 per cent on Wednesday for its treatment of its former president Jair Bolsonaro, suggesting that personal grudges rather than simple economics are playing a part in the U.S. leader’s use of tariffs.
Trump avoided his standard form letter with Brazil, specifically tying his tariffs there to the trial of Bolsonaro, who is charged with trying to overturn his 2022 election loss. Trump has described Bolsonaro as a friend and hosted the former Brazilian president at his Mar-a-Lago resort when both were in power in 2020.

12 March
Amazon forest felled to build road for climate summit</strong>
(BBC) A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém.
It aims to ease traffic to the city, which will host more than 50,000 people – including world leaders – at the conference in November.
The state government touts the highway’s “sustainable” credentials, but some locals and conservationists are outraged at the environmental impact.

23 February
Brazil Stood Up for Its Democracy. Why Didn’t the U.S.?
Jair Bolsonaro was made to answer for trying to overturn an election.
By Quico Toro
(The Atlantic) For years now, politics in Brazil have been the fun-house-mirror version of those in the United States. The dynamic was never plainer than it became last week, when Brazilian prosecutors formally charged the far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, along with 33 co-conspirators, with crimes connected to a sprawling plan to overthrow the nation’s democracy and hang on to power after losing an election in October of 2022.