Putin’s War Russia-Ukraine September 2025

Vladimir Putin has no plan for winning in Ukraine
Fighting will continue, but a reckoning is coming
(The Economist) ON JUNE 10TH 2026 the fighting between Russia and Ukraine will have lasted longer than the first world war. That conflict, too, was supposed to have been over in a few weeks. As in Ukraine, fighting became bogged down and the high command squandered men’s lives in one doomed assault after another. In August 1918 the allies used new tactics to break the German lines. Today, by contrast, Ukraine will not surrender and Russia does not know how to win.
Even in a dictatorship, a leader who has no theory of victory is storing up trouble. As Tsar Nicholas II learnt to his cost in the first world war, sooner or later there will be a reckoning. The more that Mr Putin throws away Russian lives pointlessly today, the greater the crisis he will face tomorrow.
The more Russian lives Mr Putin throws away pointlessly today, the greater the crisis he will face tomorrow
That lack of progress explains why Mr Putin is also striking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. He hopes to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable and to destroy morale. Russia has started talking about the devastating winter that lies ahead. Nobody should trivialise Ukrainian suffering, but attacking civilians rarely causes a country to collapse. People already know that Russia is merciless. Every missile that strikes a civilian target only underlines how much they have to lose should Mr Putin prevail.
In contrast, Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia may change some minds. Polling suggests that 70% of Russians say they support the war. Perhaps only one in five of these people is a fervent believer. The rest take the easier path of refusing to think about what is happening. But by hitting oil infrastructure and airports as the economy slows and budgets tighten, Ukraine may be able to jog Russians into confronting reality.

21-22 October
Russia holds nuclear drills, Ukraine seeks Swedish jets as Trump delays summit
Russia says it held exercise with strategic nuclear weapons
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy plans to buy Gripen fighter jets from Sweden
Russia and Ukraine carry out heavy attacks overnight
US says Putin-Trump summit plans on hold
Russia says summit takes time to prepare
Trump’s call to freeze Ukraine conflict at current frontlines is ‘good compromise’, says Zelenskyy
Ukrainian president’s comments come amid suspension of planned US-Russian summit and fresh attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv
Plans for Trump-Putin talks in Budapest shelved
White House says there are now no plans for summit ‘in the immediate future’ as latest efforts to end Ukraine war falter Trump puts Putin talks on hold as Kremlin launches deadly new attacks on Ukraine
(NBC) At least six people were killed overnight, shortly after President Donald Trump announced that he did not “want to have a waste of time” holding a summit with the Russian leader.

14 October
Russian drones over Europe could be a ‘psyop’ – or preparations for a wider war
Mark MacKinnon
After a series of provocative drone flights near major airports and NATO military bases in recent weeks, Moscow denies involvement in the campaign of sabotage, electronic warfare and drone incursions. The latest provocation this weekend saw Estonia close access to the Russian border after a group of armed men in military-style uniforms was filmed standing in the middle of the road.
What’s next: One theory is that President Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for a future military campaign against one or more members of the alliance of 32 states. Others believe it could be something closer to a Cold War-style psychological operation, intended to sow doubt about support for Ukraine
(Globe & Mail) Russia has been accused of waging a “hybrid war” campaign against European countries, including a series of provocative drone flights near major airports and NATO military bases in recent weeks.
Few in Europe believe Moscow’s denial of involvement in the campaign of sabotage, electronic warfare and drone incursions. But there’s much debate about what the Kremlin seeks to achieve by escalating tensions with the European Union and NATO while the bulk of its army remains bogged down in Ukraine.
One theory is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for a future military campaign against one or more members of the 32-member alliance. Others, however, see the effort as something closer to a Cold War-style psychological operation, or “psyop,” intended to sow doubt about support for Ukraine.
Drone sightings have forced the temporary shutdowns of airports in Copenhagen, Oslo and Munich in recent weeks, causing dozens of flight cancellations. Flights into and out of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, were affected on Oct. 6 after the appearance of 11 meteorological balloons near the city’s airport.
Suspicious drones have also been spotted flying near NATO military bases in Denmark, Germany and Belgium. Russian saboteurs have been blamed for cutting at least 11 undersea communications and electricity cables – the majority of them running under the Baltic Sea – since the start of the war in Ukraine. And Russian actors have been blamed for a series of parcel fires targeting international courier companies.
The latest provocation, on Saturday, saw Estonia close access to a border road that briefly passes through Russian territory after a group of about 10 armed men in military-style uniforms were filmed standing in the middle of the road.

7 October
Putin’s Polycrisis
Sergei Guriev, Dean and Professor of Economics at London Business School
(Project Syndicate) Despite…multiple challenges, Putin seems undeterred. That is because the situation is not yet catastrophic. After all, the Russian economy may be stagnating, but it is not collapsing. And with a labor force of more than 72 million, Putin can still recruit about 30,000 soldiers per month by paying men from Russia’s poorest regions ten or 20 times their average wage. These factors, coupled with his apparatus of repression, have likely convinced Putin that he has the means to keep his war economy running and suppress domestic discontent for as long as necessary.
Perhaps more importantly, Russian forces continue to advance on the battlefield – a critical element of Putin’s strategy. To be sure, the process is slow and costly in terms of lives and money. But so long as Putin continues to seize more Ukrainian land, he has no incentive to negotiate, regardless of what the US government offers him. That is not to say that Western sanctions have failed. Putin has limited access to cutting-edge military technology and must rely on China, North Korea, and Iran for spare parts and other supplies. He has less cash to recruit soldiers, and he may need to spend even more to quell civil unrest. In the new fiscal plan for 2026, he has to budget the same amount for military and security spending in nominal rubles – thus de facto reducing this expenditure adjusted for inflation. Looking ahead, Russia’s demographic troubles imply that the Kremlin will need to offer ever higher bonuses for recruits and spend more on wages for workers in defense industries, while enduring a further slowdown in civilian sectors. Meanwhile, a recession would undermine fiscal equilibrium and mire the country in a doom loop, as the higher taxes needed to finance the war dampen economic growth and depress revenues further. In Putin’s view, these are concerns for another day. In the near term, he has sufficient resources to maintain order at home and pay for his army’s slow advance in Ukraine. Yes, it comes at the expense of spending on education, health care, innovation, and infrastructure. But for Putin, making progress on the battlefield is a better investment in Russia’s future: it means that he will have a stronger hand when it comes time to make a settlement. If Putin cares about territorial gains above all else, the question becomes how to stop Russian troops from advancing in Ukraine. That will require the West to press as hard as possible on Putin’s pain points. Only by strengthening technological, economic, and financial sanctions against the Kremlin, providing advanced weapons to Ukraine, and incentivizing the Russian brain drain can Western policymakers accelerate the demise of Putin’s war machine, freeze the frontline, and save Ukrainian lives.

28 September
Zelenskyy condemns Russia’s ‘vile and cowardly’ 12-hour bombing of Ukraine
Moscow targets Kyiv and other regions with about 600 drones and 40 missiles, killing at least four people
(The Guardian) One of the worst bombardments of Kyiv since the start of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has killed at least four people in what Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a “vile and cowardly” attack.
Russia launched nearly 600 drones and more than 40 cruise missiles in a bombardment that lasted more than 12 hours over Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The main targets were the Ukrainian capital and the regions of Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Odesa.
Ukraine’s president noted that the onslaught came at the close of UN general assembly week in New York, during which Donald Trump had expressed support for Kyiv. Zelenskyy called on allies to stop all Russian oil imports and promised his country would “strike back”.
There was widespread international condemnation. The UK defence secretary, John Healey, said the bombardment had brought further death and destruction and showed that Putin was “committed to war”. He said Britain would step up its support for Kyiv in response to Moscow’s “illegal attacks”.
Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, said Russia had again targeted civilians in cold blood. “This brutal attack … lays bare Russia’s false narratives of the war and again shows the world the true face of the aggressor,” he said. He called for additional EU sanctions against Moscow and for pressure to be put on its war machine.
Poland’s military said it had scrambled fighter jets and put ground-based air defence systems on high alert in response to the strikes on Ukraine. The moves were preventive and intended to secure Polish airspace and protect citizens, especially in border areas with Ukraine, the military said.

17 September
Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil system struggling under Ukrainian attacks – report
Transneft has told producers they may have to cut their output because of attacks on pipelines and ports, Reuters says. What we know on day 1,302
(The Guardian) Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine’s drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries, Reuters has reported, citing industry sources. Ukrainian drones have frequently hit Russia’s oil plants, cutting refining capacity by up to a fifth, and damaged ports including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Ukrainian military officials and Russian industry sources have said. Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday it had struck the Saratov oil refinery in Russia during an overnight attack.
The European Commission will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports, the EU executive’s head, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Tuesday after a call with the US president, Donald Trump. “Russia’s war economy, sustained by revenues from fossil fuels, is financing the bloodshed in Ukraine,” she said. Von der Leyen announced the commission would soon present its 19th package of sanctions aimed at Russia’s war effort – targeting crypto, banks, and energy.
Donald Trump on Tuesday said Zelenskyy will “have to get going and make a deal” while Europe “have to stop buying oil from Russia”. Europe has in fact greatly reduced its purchase of Russian oil and gas, though two big holdouts are Hungary and Slovakia, whose rightwing prime ministers are both friendly with Putin and Trump.

10 September
Nicholas Kristof: 3 Thoughts After Russia’s Drone Incursion Into Poland
Russia’s drone incursion into Poland overnight, forcing NATO fighter jets to scramble and shoot down some of the drones, was an enormous escalation by President Vladimir Putin of Russia. And for those of us in the West, it was a test.
It was a test, first of all, of whether we will take this violation of NATO territory seriously, or whether we will investigate, wring our hands and debate among ourselves whether the drone incursion was real. A lot about the event is still being figured out but this incursion appears intentional. One drone might go astray, but this was more than a dozen drones entering Polish territory, even as none appear to have been reported in Slovakia, Hungary or other neighboring countries.
That’s how Putin operates: He tests and measures the reaction. If this challenge to NATO is met with nothing more than indignant tweets, he will escalate further. He is trying to bully NATO countries into backing away from Ukraine, as he has bullied so many others.

7 September
Russia Unleashes Largest Drone Assault of War, Setting Government Building Ablaze
Ukrainians said it was the first time a key building in Kyiv’s government district had been damaged since the war began. Russia has kept attacking despite Trump administration efforts at peace talks.
(NYT) Russia attacked Ukraine on Sunday with the largest drone assault so far in the war, Ukrainian authorities said, damaging a key building in the heavily guarded government district of the capital for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Ukraine’s Air Force said that Russia had launched 805 Iranian-designed Shahed exploding drones and decoys across the country, the latest in a relentless offensive that has continued unabated despite the Trump administration’s efforts to mediate peace talks
President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who despite appeals from the White House has given little indication that he has softened any of his maximalist demands for a settlement. In the meantime, Russian forces have continued to bombard Ukraine, including targeting European and American assets in the capital, Kyiv, and killing civilians.
Sunday’s assault came three days after European leaders — including Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France — met to propose a framework for security guarantees in postwar Ukraine, assuming a cease-fire or peace settlement is reached.
Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said the strikes were “part of a clear pattern of escalation.”
“Every Russian attack is a deliberate choice and a message: Russia does not want peace,” she wrote on social media, adding that Kyiv’s allies would continue to support Ukraine’s defense industry and tighten sanctions on Moscow.