Gulf War III — expansion and geopolitical ramifications

1 April 2026
The Third Islamic Republic
A War’s Unintended Consequences—for Iran, the Middle East, and the Global Order
Suzanne Maloney
(Foreign Affairs May/June 2026) … The Islamic Republic’s defiance and its geographic chokehold on the global economy dramatically intensified and expanded the crisis. For the Islamic Republic, the strait provides the ultimate insurance policy. Tehran cannot defend either its leaders or its territory against its adversaries, but it can impose unbearable costs on its neighbors and on the global economy. As Khamenei himself previewed, that leverage is a lifeline: neither Washington nor the rest of the world can withstand a prolonged reduction in oil supplies. And with supplies of fertilizer, helium, and other key commodities also limited by the strait’s closure, the fallout from even a brief disruption will be felt in capitals around the world for months to come. For Iran’s leaders, economic pressure is an effective way to protect the regime. As the conflict has intensified, Tehran has seized the opportunity to shift the postwar strategic balance in its favor, with the aim of ensuring that the regime emerges from this crisis stronger, both internally and externally.
More broadly, what Iran’s leaders want is to push their country’s revolutionary project forward, ushering in what might be described as the Third Islamic Republic of Iran. The first republic, helmed by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was a revolutionary experiment that sought to impose religious rule at home and destabilize its neighbors. Ali Khamenei’s rule launched the second republic, which institutionalized the dominance of the supreme leader’s office and empowered the military through its role in reconstruction after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. In engineering Mojtaba’s rise, the regime is seeking to establish the third republic: an explicitly praetorian state, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the wider security apparatus firmly in control of decision-making over all aspects of governance, society, and foreign policy.
This is a grandiose ambition, and perhaps an act of overreach that will fail, especially given the gaping voids between the Third Islamic Republic’s goals, the aspirations of its people, and the interests of its neighbors. Still, this regime has repeatedly demonstrated endurance, resilience, and a determination to preserve the regime by any means necessary. Those qualities, and the American and Israeli failures to appreciate them, may allow Iran to snatch a victory—albeit possibly a Pyrrhic one—from the jaws of defeat, and to deal a historic blow to the international order that Washington helped build and, until recent years, sought to sustain.

When Freedom of Navigation Collides with China Policy
(Politico) … In late June, Iran and Oman confirmed discussions over maritime service fees and transit arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, moving the concept of sovereign tolling from theory into active diplomacy. Whether the framework ultimately succeeds is almost beside the point. Once states demonstrate that strategic geography can be monetized, every major maritime chokepoint acquires a new economic value.
If the idea spreads beyond Hormuz, no waterway offers a larger opportunity than the Strait of Malacca. Stretching between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, the Malacca-Singapore corridor serves as the primary maritime artery connecting East Asia with the Middle East and Europe.
… For decades, proposals to monetize strategic waterways were dismissed as incompatible with the postwar maritime order. The Hormuz discussions have changed that. Once states begin openly discussing transit fees and monetizing access to strategic chokepoints, an old debate about cost recovery can quickly become a new debate about sovereign revenue. Strategic geography increasingly becomes an economic asset rather than simply transportation infrastructure. …

12 August
Saudi Arabia bets on defensive alliances to deter slide into war
– Three-way defence pact, Red Sea coalition are designed to provide deterrence
(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is building regional defensive alliances that it hopes will keep its enemies at bay and help it respond more robustly to attacks by Iran and its network of regional allies. But nascent attempts to ​construct a multinational maritime coalition in the Red Sea, and the decision to bring Turkey into a defence pact with the kingdom and Pakistan, have so far failed to ward off attacks.
Panama canal fees soar due to Iran war and El Niño as ship ‘pays $4m to jump queue’
Falling water levels linked to weather system are expected to limit number of slots to transit shipping lane
(The Guardian) …commercial ships travelling through the Panama canal are facing a rise in costs amid disruption triggered by the Iran war and falling water levels linked to this year’s intense El Niño weather system.
Highlighting the fragility of global trade, a container ship reportedly paid about $4m (£3m) to jump a queue of vessels waiting to pass through the vital maritime choke point.

7 August
The Middle East Tries Its Hand at a NATO-Style Pact
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey pledge mutual defense in the face of aggressive Iranian and Israeli operations.
(Foreign Policy) Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey inked a joint defense pact on Friday, concluding nearly a year of negotiations aimed at countering aggressive military posturing in the Middle East. Dubbed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, the alliance will act as a NATO-style mutual defense pact that consolidates the power and influence of three regional heavyweights.
According to a trilateral statement, “the agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.” Although Egypt participated in early talks, Cairo was not mentioned as a participant in Friday’s deal. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan all attended the signing in Mecca, Saudi Arabia—Islam’s holiest city.
Military cooperation among the three Sunni Muslim-majority nations is nothing new. For decades, Pakistan has provided Saudi forces with training and technical aid, Islamabad and Ankara have previously exchanged warships and training aircraft, and Riyadh has repeatedly purchased Turkish drones. Last month, Pakistan and Turkey also backed a Saudi-proposed maritime defense coalition that would help protect regional shipping routes and prevent global supply chains from being held hostage during war.
But just how far the joint defense pact will go remains unclear.

30 July
Drone strike at Egypt port near Suez Canal ignites new shipping risks
Summary
Egypt says unidentified drone hit vessels in Damietta port
Iran denies involvement in strike on Egyptian port
Damietta strike heightens risk to Suez Canal, crucial for Saudi oil
London’s marine insurance market widens ‘high risk’ Red Sea zone
Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia from Iraq, sources say
(Reuters) – A drone strike that sparked fires on two gas vessels in Egypt’s Mediterranean ‌port of Damietta has raised a new threat to shipping through the Suez Canal, one of the last major export routes available to Saudi oil amid the expanding U.S.-Iran war.

26-29 July
Saudi Arabia seeks international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthis, sources say
(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is seeking to ​build an international coalition to protect shipping ‌in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks, two people familiar with the deliberations said on Wednesday.
The composition of ​the coalition has not yet been finalised ​and is being discussed with dozens of ⁠countries, the sources said.
Iran launches renewed missile attacks as US and Saudis strike Tehran-backed militias in Iraq
The flare-up on multiple fronts after several days of relative calm raised the risk of a return to all-out war. It also underscored the difficulty of winding down a five-month conflict that has jolted the world economy and is unpopular among Americans. The fighting was also likely to add to concerns that the U.S. is further drawing down already diminished stockpiles of sophisticated munitions needed to defend its bases and allies.
The scope of the war in the Middle East widened on Wednesday, as American and Saudi fighter jets attacked Iran-allied militias in Iraq, Iran fired missiles at bases in Jordan used by U.S. forces, and an American-owned tanker in an Egyptian port was set on fire in an apparent drone strike.
The spate of attacks ended a pause in direct fighting between the United States and Iran. Since the collapse of a cease-fire between the United States and Iran this month, Iran-linked groups across the region have opened new fronts and reopened old ones, embroiling forces in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan in the war that until recently had been contained to countries along the Persian Gulf.
Ukraine’s Strike on an Iranian Ship Could Bring Two Wars Closer
The attack in the Caspian Sea was an unusually direct encounter between two countries that have been on opposite sides for years.
(NYT) A Ukrainian strike last weekend on an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea has underscored the links between the wars that the two countries are fighting, raising tensions between them as well as the risk of more direct confrontation.
Ukraine said the ship was carrying military equipment between Iran and Russia. Iranian officials said it was a commercial vessel, and it accused Ukraine of killing a sailor in the attack.
Iranian officials threatened retaliation in a series of statements and comments to the news media. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, snapped back, telling Iran it had “no standing to pretend to be a victim” given its military support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Russia hit Ukraine with Iranian drones.
Iran and Russia have had a close military relationship for decades. The most visible recent example of this is the long-range attack drones that Tehran has supplied to Moscow.
Ukraine helped defend Gulf states against Iran.
Four years after Russian unleashed those Iranian drones against Ukraine, Kyiv has now brought its hard-earned expertise in countering them to the Middle East.
Are the wars converging?
Ukraine has increasingly portrayed its war with Russia and the war in the Middle East as intertwined, saying Iran and Russia were aiding each other in their respective conflicts.
Iran war spreads to Red Sea and Caspian, Gulf quiet as US forgoes strikes
Despite the lull in the Gulf, fighting between Iran’s Houthi allies and Saudi Arabia, indicated the war could affect a second major shipping route and reignite Yemen’s civil war.
No US attacks on Iran for the first time in two weeks
Iran accuses Ukraine of striking commercial ship in Caspian Sea
Reports of damage to Saudi oil depot as air defenses intercept missiles from Yemen
Houthis’ entry into conflict threatens to reignite Yemen’s civil war
(Reuters) – Signs of the Iran war’s spread emerged this ​weekend despite a pause in U.S. strikes, as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast and Iran accused Ukraine of targeting an Iranian ‌vessel in the Caspian Sea.

22 July
Dubai Firm Cuts Deal for New Port to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
(NYT) A Dubai-based logistics giant announced a deal on Wednesday to develop a new port system that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments where the war in Iran has throttled traffic.
The development would create two new shipping terminals off the country’s east coast for container and cargo ships, increasing the company’s container capacity by roughly 13 percent, according to the firm, DP World. That would expand shipping infrastructure in Fujairah, an Indian Ocean port city that serves as a way of bypassing the strait.
DP World is owned by the government of Dubai. Through a vast network of ports and terminals around the world, the firm handles about 10 percent of global container traffic annually.

20-22 July
Houthis deploy missiles and drones to attack ships in southern Red Sea, naval group says
Houthi militants are ready to attack ships in the southern Red Sea, the Joint Maritime Information Center warned in a notice.
The militants have deployed missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the center said, citing sources close to the group.
The Houthis declared a maritime embargo of Saudi Arabia this week. Several tankers with Saudi cargo turned around before reaching Bab el-Mandeb.
Saudi-Led Coalition in Yemen Vows to Protect Ships From Houthis
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
The Houthis vowed to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in response to what they say is Saudi Arabia’s siege of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said it had taken steps to protect vessels sailing the Red Sea, with a spokesman saying all Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly.
The blockade puts at risk the flow of oil, with the Saudi Foreign Ministry saying the kingdom would take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law.
The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni group, vowed to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, prompting the military coalition in Yemen that’s led by the kingdom to say it had taken steps to protect vessels sailing the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Houthis declare naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, widening threat to global oil supplies
The Houthis said their decision to declare a maritime embargo was in response to what they called “an unjust and oppressive siege” imposed on Yemen by the Saudis.

17 July
Fareed Zakaria: The Iran war is a gift. Just not for the United States.
Without firing a shot, China saw three of its long-held goals accelerate.
(WaPo) … The war accelerated three of China’s long-held goals: a Middle East less dependent on America, a world more dependent on critical Chinese technology, and a reputation for Beijing as a serious and steady world power. …
America’s Gulf allies have watched Washington wage this war in chaotic fashion and with little regard for the damage inflicted on their cities, infrastructure and economies. The Persian Gulf is now dividing into two camps. The United Arab Emirates is drawing closer to Israel and Washington. But a larger group, led by Saudi Arabia and including Qatar, Oman and perhaps Iraq and even Turkey, is likely to seek long-term security through a balance: continued ties with the United States, but also dialogue with Iran and better relations with China.
That is precisely the regional order Beijing has favored …
China’s more impressive victory is geo-economic. At first glance, a country that imports about 70 percent of its oil should be among the war’s biggest losers. Yet China has weathered the shock better than most countries because it spent years preparing. It diversified suppliers, built what is estimated to be the world’s largest oil stockpile, continued using coal, expanded nuclear power and electrified its economy on a scale no other major country has matched. …
The war has become a giant advertisement for China’s critical technologies. Governments everywhere are looking to build up their solar power, batteries, wind turbines, electric vehicles and grids. China controls about 91 percent of global solar-panel manufacturing capacity and 89 percent of lithium-ion battery capacity. Chinese firms manufacture at least 70 percent of almost all clean-energy technologies tracked by Bloomberg. The longer energy insecurity persists, the more the world will buy into industries China dominates.
US Renews Strikes on Iran, Pushing Oil Up Most Since April.
(Bloomberg) The escalation in attacks has sparked concerns that the ceasefire agreement can no longer be salvaged, with China and Pakistan calling on both the US and Iran to cease hostilities and resume dialogue.
… Tehran responded to the earlier US attacks by targeting American bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain — the three countries that have borne the brunt of the Islamic Republic’s counterstrikes since fighting picked up early last week — and on Oman’s As Salamah Archipelago, which sits on the strait. Iran also struck at US radar and aircraft in Qatar, one of the main mediators between Washington and Tehran, according to the Tasnim news agency.
In Kuwait, the government reported strikes on a water desalination and electricity plant, with many power-generation units sustaining damage.

12 July
Wall Street is worried about the $3 trillion rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia
(Bloomberg) The US-Israel war with Iran has dominated headlines this year. Behind closed doors, however, conversations with more than a dozen Wall Street bankers and private equity executives reveal an additional concern — one that has barely registered in public debate but has the potential to upend global investment flows.
The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two biggest Gulf economies and among the world’s deepest pools of capital, has prompted executives to work on contingency plans to counter any fallout if things get significantly worse. From banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to investment firms including BlackRock, Brookfield and KKR, the trajectory of the relationship is especially crucial.

1-2 July
The Middle East Has a New Saudi-Led Axis
The newfound bloc has emerged as a potential winner from the Iran war.
(Foreign Policy) … A new grouping outside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has emerged, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and non-Gulf actors Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. The United Arab Emirates is conspicuous by its absence.
Some of these states have emerged as clear winners from the war, while others are content with having built new resilience. There is a veneer of camaraderie among them, but deep divisions lie underneath regarding how best to deal with Iran and whether to pursue normalization with Israel or brace for its feared hegemonic expansion. Either way, it’s clear that the war in Iran has produced a new order in the Gulf that extends beyond to the larger Islamic world.
The new bloc is defined by two goals: containing the Iranian threat while also regaining influence in countries dominated by Iranian proxies or allies such as Syria and Lebanon; and also pushing back against Israel to define limits to its military adventurism. One regional observer said Israel’s strike on Doha last year—to hunt Hamas members—spooked Gulf nations into thinking that they could be next. It brought rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey closer together. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons underpin the alliance, serving as a bulwark against Israel, under the Saudi-Pakistani defense framework.
While there is no official name for the grouping—only described as a Sunni alliance in Israeli reports or an expanding Islamic NATO—it signals realignment built on deepening mistrust between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
How the Iran War Ignited a Clash Between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed President Trump earlier to cripple Iran. But as Iran asserted its power, the prince urged a cease-fire, and is now pursuing his security priorities.
(NYT) They had announced the start of a new mission to help guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had effectively closed early in the war. U.S. naval and air power would ward off any Iranian attacks during a tentative cease-fire, the commanders said. But U.S. Central Command was caught by surprise when officials from Saudi Arabia said American forces could not use the kingdom’s air space for the mission, which the Pentagon was calling Project Freedom. The Americans had not consulted the Saudis.
That set off a flurry of tense and urgent phone calls between Washington and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,… But the crown prince stood his ground, fearing that the American plan could reignite war. The Trump administration was forced to shut down Project Freedom less than 48 hours after it had begun.
The all-hands campaign by the White House to sway Prince Mohammed, which has not previously been reported, and other crucial moments during the war revealed American and Saudi officials becoming increasingly at odds over how to approach security in the region, particularly with regard to Iran and Israel.
And more and more, the Saudis see the U.S. government as unreliable and even on occasion a risk to Gulf Arab nations.

25 June
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen after the US-Iran deal?
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Kari Heerman, and Bruce Jones
(Brookings) Iran has withstood the U.S. military barrage and controls the Strait of Hormuz, putting Tehran in a stronger position than before the war.
Iran has agreed to open the strait for 60 days, in return for targeted sanctions relief, the unfreezing of assets, and a reconstruction fund.
Iran has established a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to collect tolls on vessels traveling through the strait, challenging international maritime law.
Iran has mined the strait, and removing these mines will take months.

20 June
China is counting its wins from the Iran war
(CNN analysis) When US and Israeli bombs first began falling on Iran at the end of February, China’s leaders were staring at the very real possibility of another friendly regime being decapitated, much like had happened with Venezuela only weeks before.
The view is quite different nearly four months later: the United States and Iran have reached an interim agreement after weeks of peace talks, but the regime in Tehran remains in place and the war is widely seen to have exposed the limits of American power.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s own diplomatic clout has appeared to rise – as it’s hosted a parade of foreign leaders and cast itself as a proponent of peace, even earning repeated praise from US President Donald Trump for its response to the war.
The world’s second largest economy has also weathered the historic energy crunch triggered by the conflict better than many of its neighbors – in particular due to its copious strategic oil reserves and embrace of green tech and electric vehicles.

Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world
Experts from across Brookings analyze the long-term implications of the war and provide policy recommendations for decisionmakers in Washington and around the world.
However and whenever the conflict ends, the Iran war will have major implications for the evolving international security and economic order. For that reason, consistent with the Brookings Institution’s mission to advance global security and prosperity, we’ve challenged researchers and experts from across the organization to analyze the long-term implications of the war and provide policy recommendations for decisionmakers in Washington and around the world.
8 June
Iran war reverberations: A nadir for Asia’s economic security
Mireya Solís
– The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered Asia’s largest-ever oil shock, exposing the risks of a region dependent on imported energy in an era when economic vulnerabilities are increasingly weaponized.
– China and the United States are vying for dominance, but neither is acting as a great power stabilizer. Washington has been unwilling to mount a coordinated campaign to help allies and partners weather the crisis, while China hopes to profit from the crisis by limiting its refined oil exports and becoming the supplier of choice for green technology.
– To adapt to these new power realities, Asia should pursue collective resilience initiatives, including joint strategic oil reserves and trade policies that prohibit export controls on crucial commodities in times of crisis.
From chokepoint to crisis: The Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets
Samantha Gross and Ryan Beane
The war in Iran has caused the largest disruption in the history of the oil market, and Iranian threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have brought tanker transits far below their usual levels.
Despite the United States being the largest oil producer in the world, it is still exposed to the same price shocks as elsewhere because oil is a globally traded and largely fungible commodity.
While oil companies are profiting from higher prices today, this war has created a much more uncertain market environment for future investment. Going from an oil glut prewar to a supply shock now, oil producers in the United States have been slow to increase production so far.
There are no short-term policy solutions—besides ending the war—that will alleviate the crisis for consumers at home. Since oil is mostly used in the United States for transportation, continuing to electrify the vehicle fleet and increasing vehicle efficiency standards would help protect consumers from the next shock.

29 May
How Does Trump End This? with Jon Allen (video)
As Donald Trump’s war with Iran enters its fourth month, Peter Donolo, Jeremy Kinsman and guest Jon Allen unpack how a conflict once promised to be short and decisive became a global crisis.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, energy markets are under pressure and America’s allies are reassessing what American leadership now means.
Allen, Canada’s former Ambassador to Israel, argues the conflict was shaped by the egos of both Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, and by a miscalculation about how Iran would respond once attacked. The conversation turns to possible negotiations, the limits of Israeli and American leverage, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the wider fallout for NATO, the G7 and countries that once relied on American stability.

18 May
The Iran war’s global fallout (so far)
GZERO Staff
The Iran war has had a ripple effect on the global economy and international relations way beyond the Middle East. Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute joins Ian Bremmer to discuss how the conflict is redrawing power for the US, Russia, China, and America’s allies.
Trump declared Operation Epic Fury over, but the consequences of the Iran war are still very much unfolding. The US is locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, facing what Kori Schake describes as a binary choice: “dramatic escalation” or “humiliation, accepting that Iran is now in control of the Straits and we have sacrificed free passage in international waterways.”
Russia and China are both watching and benefiting. Higher oil prices are pumping money back into the Kremlin just as pressure over Ukraine was mounting. And as Trump heads to Beijing for the China-US summit, Xi Jinping holds real leverage. Beijing knows the White House needs its help to stabilize the Strait. Schake says that tells you something: “It’s an important measure of just how much President Trump has lost in starting the war in Iran and pursuing it in the way he has, that he’s having to go appeal to China, America’s most powerful potential adversary, for assistance in delivering us from a problem of our own creation.”
For America’s allies, the damage is also real, she says. The US has externalized the costs of the conflict onto partner countries, cutting Germany’s GDP growth in half through higher energy prices. At the same time, the war has exposed a shallow US defense industrial base and raised hard questions about whether American military power, however tactically impressive, can translate into strategic wins.

12-15 May
Oman caught between US and Iran after Tehran’s claims of joint strait of Hormuz plan
Muscat silent about plans – opposed by US – to charge fee and demand details on nationality of all transiting ships
Oman has been caught in geopolitical crossfire after Iran said it was coordinating with the Gulf state over the future management of the strait of Hormuz, including Tehran’s plans to impose fees on commercial shipping.
The Omani exclave of Musandam lies to the south of the contested waterway, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil traffic but has been blockaded for 10 weeks since the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February.
The US has said repeatedly there can be no permanent solution to the blockade that involves the payment of a toll to Iran, and claims that Oman holds a similar view.
Speaking in India on Friday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, defined the strait of Hormuz as an exclusively Omani-Iranian waterway. “The strait is located in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman,” he said. “There is no international waters in between.”
Benjamin Netanyahu made secret trip to UAE at height of the Iran war
The covert meeting with the UAE’s president is the latest milestone in a rapidly developing Middle East alliance
Benjamin Netanyahu has revealed he made a secret trip to the United Arab Emirates at the height of the Iran war to meet president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
“This visit has led to a historic breakthrough in relations between Israel and the UAE,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement on Wednesday night.
The two leaders met for several hours in Al Ain, an oasis city by the Oman border, on 26 March, Reuters reported.
A source told the news agency that Mossad director David Barnea made at least two visits to the UAE during the war with Iran to coordinate military actions. The intelligence chief’s visit was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
The covert visit and meeting between the two leaders is the latest milestone in a rapidly developing Middle East alliance. On Tuesday, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, disclosed that Israel had shared its air defence system with the UAE, sending Iron Dome batteries and military specialists to operate them over the course of the war.
UAE’s secret attack on Iran risks drawing Gulf states into the war
If current precarious ceasefire between US and Iran ends, Emirates are more likely to be targeted by Tehran
(The Guardian) The risk of some Gulf states becoming embroiled in a direct war with Iran has risen after it was reported the United Arab Emirates had secretly launched a major attack on Iran during the conflict.
In addition, Kuwait has said that at least four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been captured trying to carry out “terrorist attacks” on the Kuwaiti-owned Bubiyan Island, the largest island in the Kuwaiti coastal chain.
The UAE assault on Iran, which was undertaken as retaliation for Iranian attacks on its facilities, included a strike on Iran’s Lazan Island just before the 7 April ceasefire was announced, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The news is likely to make the UAE an even clearer target for Iran if the ceasefire is abandoned and the US and Iran restart the conflict

7 May
The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout
Ian Bremmer
By leaving US allies and rivals alike scrambling to respond to an unpredictable and unreliable superpower, the war in the Middle East is driving an historic geopolitical realignment that will shift the global balance of power over the next decade. The scale of the changes will rival those following the end of the Cold War.
(Project Syndicate) The US-Israeli war with Iran has done much more than destabilize the Middle East, trigger a surge in energy and other prices, and disrupt the global economy. It has also left US allies and rivals scrambling to respond to an unpredictable and unreliable superpower. The result is an historic geopolitical realignment that will shift the global balance of power over the next decade.
[The war] has already helped persuade many Gulf Arab states that the Gulf Cooperation Council—a loose diplomatic, economic, and security arrangement long plagued by infighting—is no longer fit for purpose.
[It] also intensifies the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which recently announced its intent to end its nearly six-decade membership in OPEC. The UAE will now align more closely with Israel on intelligence, technology, and security, in hopes of crippling the Iranian regime. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, will try to find ways to live peacefully alongside the Islamic Republic by pursuing tighter military alignment with nuclear-armed Pakistan, as well as with Egypt and Turkey, and closer coordination with China.
Both these blocs will also try to keep their close security ties with the United States; but that will no longer be as easy as it once was. One of the most immediate and striking effects of the war is that it has eroded the foundation for coordinated decision-making across the Middle East.
At a time when Russia’s war on Ukraine is fueling anxieties across Europe, the Trump administration’s decision to focus on Iran—and then to lash out at European leaders for not helping—generates new momentum toward a European collective-defense arrangement outside NATO.
The result is a deeper fragmentation within the Western alliance, and growing European fears that the White House may eventually push for a US-Russia security understanding. That prospect gives Russian President Vladimir Putin reason enough to continue his war in Ukraine, in the hope that Russia can eventually break through as NATO breaks down.
Trump shelved ‘Project Freedom’ after Saudis refused use of bases and airspace
Riyadh told White House it would deny access for operation to provide tankers military escort through strait of Hormuz
(The Guardian) Riyadh told the White House it would not allow its Prince Sultan airbase to be used to mount the operation billed as Project Freedom, which the US presented as the successor to the bombing campaign called Operation Epic Fury.
The confrontation – not denied by Riyadh – underlines Saudi Arabia’s desire for a permanent end to the damaging US-Israel war on Iran on almost any terms, in contrast to its more assertive Gulf neighbour, the United Arab Emirates.
In a sign of the Emirates’ frustration with Riyadh’s caution, the UAE has already quit the Saudi-dominated oil producers’ club, Opec, and is now considering leaving the Arab League as well.
The UAE as a signatory to the Abraham accords has long been closer to Israel, but the tensions within the Gulf have widened as the war has dragged on, causing untold damage to their economies and international image.
The Emirates are furious that they have been the biggest target for Iran’s attacks, and felt there was insufficient solidarity across the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia also feared Project Freedom did not have clear terms of engagement and could turn into a risky naval confrontation between Iran and the US, marking the effective end of the ceasefire that had been in partial force since 7 April. Iran had explicitly said it would treat the US military escort of oil tankers or attacks on Iranian shipping as a ceasefire breaches, exposing Gulf states to further attack.
An end to the ceasefire would not only result in a naval conflict in the strait, but also Tehran resuming its damaging drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf and energy installations in the region. Those attacks have probably caused more damage to Gulf infrastructure than previously reported.

4 May
Saudi Arabia touts new use for Neom port after Iran war
With the Strait of Hormuz choked off, Riyadh focuses on Red Sea infrastructure
(FT) Saudi Arabia is promoting the port of Neom as a hub connecting the Gulf with Europe and Africa, as the kingdom turns to its long-overlooked Red Sea coast as a key trade outlet to counter Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Neom gigaproject, which included a futuristic linear city in the desert, has been radically scaled back after vast cost overruns.
But Neom is touting its less-glamorous port as one of several infrastructure projects that have eased the economic blow suffered when Iranian assaults on shipping effectively cut off Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich east from world trade.
The strikes, launched in the wake of the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, have spurred the kingdom and other Gulf states to cut their dependence on the strait.
How real is Saudi Arabia’s solution to chaos in the Strait of Hormuz?
(NPR/FT) Saudi Arabia is positioning its Port of NEOM, on the WESTERN side of the country (on the Red Sea), as an alternate shipping route amidst the chaos of the Strait of Hormuz. It hopes to be a connector between the Gulf with Europe and Africa. While trade has been mostly handled on the east coast of the nation, it looks like there’s now a shift west to the Red Sea. The problem… this port does not handle oil, so it’s not entirely clear what will be shipped from there. That said, Saudi’s Yanbu port on the west coast has seen a 4x increase in oil exports since February. That’s thanks to a east-west pipeline in the country.
Why we care: So… are we just going to rely on the Strait of Hormuz forever? Assuming the world doesn’t switch to all EVs and renewables tomorrow, oil and the Strait will continue to be globally relevant for some time. Alternative routes have been in discussion for decades, but there’s no obvious one. There ARE other ports like Yanbu, but it’s not built to move that much oil. A solution away from the Strait isn’t as simple as another port or another pipeline. It would require a systems-level reboot.

29 April
Why the Emiratis just ditched OPEC
the United Arab Emirates announced they’re breaking up with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, aka OPEC.
(International Intrigue) The official statement cites the UAE’s “long-term strategic and economic vision”, which is diplomatic speak for “it’s not you, it’s me”, but the Emiratis realistically had four reasons.
First, rivalry — OPEC technically runs on consensus, but consensus almost always bends towards the Saudis who can ramp output up or down the hardest, single-handedly enforcing or breaking the group’s solidarity. That gives leverage to the Saudis, who also happen to be the UAE’s main regional rival — and as Sweet Brown once said, ain’t nobody got time for that. This leads us to…
Second, flexibility — the UAE has long bristled at Saudi-led OPEC’s 3.5 million bpd ceiling on Emirati oil output, particularly given the Emiratis just poured billions into ramping their capacity up closer to ~4.5mbpd. The UAE was sneakily exceeding that limit, but the gap just became unsustainable
Third, geography — whereas other OPEC members like Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran are now effectively trapped by duelling Hormuz blockades, the Emiratis (like the Saudis) have a pipeline to partially bypass Hormuz. It’s not massive (~1.8mbpd) but probably gave the Emiratis enough confidence to prioritise national output over OPEC solidarity.
And fourth, reciprocity — the news came just days after US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly backed the Emirati request for a $20B currency swap. So while there’s no leaked “swap-for-OPExit” memo (yet?)…

20 April
The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World
The Asia-Pacific was hit hard and quick by the war in Iran and its energy bottlenecks. Scenes of crisis there indicate that problems are multiplying and spreading.

10 April
The Iran War’s Winners and Losers
Richard Haass
The current ceasefire allows us to make a preliminary assessment of the war and its effects. China and Russia were clear winners, while the Gulf Arab states suffered a reputational hit, and the combatants all had decidedly mixed outcomes, although the United States and Israel gained the least.
(Project Syndicate) The good news is that many of the pressures that brought about the ceasefire remain in place. None of the combatants’ interests would be served by the deployment of US ground forces, attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, or the destruction of neighboring Gulf countries’ water-treatment facilities, oil refineries, or data centers. This is not to predict the emergence of a formal, comprehensive, and lasting peace. But it does suggest that a return to full-scale war, while possible, is not inevitable. This allows us to make a preliminary assessment of the war and its effects.
The big winner is Russia. Its economy has benefited significantly from rising energy prices. US relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil added to the windfall and could well outlast the return of energy prices to pre-war levels. The Kremlin also gained from America’s use of weapons that could have gone to Ukraine and are not easily replaced, and the deterioration in America’s relationship with Europe has further weakened NATO, a long-standing goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
China has also come out a winner. It benefits from a renewed US focus on the Middle East, which translates into reduced US forces and firepower in the Indo-Pacific, meaning that fewer weapons would be available for any Taiwan contingency. Moreover, with the US having significantly undermined its standing in the Middle East with its reckless war, China could emerge as a sought-after partner in the region.
Who is worse off? The conflict was clearly bad for US-European relations and Taiwan, as well as for Ukraine, because of Russia’s gains. At the same time, however, Ukraine’s cutting-edge drone technology has helped the country establish new commercial and security ties with Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia.
A more aggressive Iran has exposed the vulnerabilities of the Arab states (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman). Now they must live under Iran’s shadow and face the possibility of renewed conflict, putting the region’s economic model—built on stability, foreign investment, and tourism—at risk.

9 April
‘Malaysia won’t be lectured’:Singapore’s refusal to negotiate over Hormuz creates waves
Singapore said it would not be appealing to Iran for access to the strait as transit through crucial trade waterways was a right
(SCMP) Singapore’s pushback against negotiating with Iran over access to the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a backlash from Malaysian politicians, who saw its statements as “lecturing” them on how best to secure safe passage through the vital waterway.
Malaysia was among a handful of “friendly” nations granted toll-free passage by Iran last week, a decision Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim credited to active diplomacy and close ties with the Islamic Republic.
Leaders in Anwar’s ruling coalition, however, took exception to Singapore’s reasoning behind its refusal to negotiate with Tehran, saying it risked eroding the commitment to “independent, balanced diplomacy” that has long been an Asean cornerstone.

Can the world bypass the Strait of Hormuz?
The Gulf has the money and motivation to make a pipeline network happen, which could help it bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The question is whether the conflict has created enough durable momentum to get past the obstacles and objections.
(The Telegraph) As the US and Iran wrangle over the question of whether the Strait of Hormuz is or isn’t open, Gulf elites are beginning to contemplate another question: can they bypass the choke point altogether…
… Before the disruption, some 20 million barrels per day of oil were going through the Strait of Hormuz – more than double what existing pipelines can carry, even if they were in the right place for the likes of Kuwait or Bahrain.
Building out new pipelines to replace volumes lost to the strait would be a long and costly business.
While the Gulf summons images of wide-open deserts, few if any would be laid solely across open sand. The topography of the region is far more complex than that. The two lines of the East-West Pipeline, for example, were bored through the basalt of the Hijaz mountains.
Even simply adding a third East-West line could be a $5bn-plus enterprise. Any pipelines to Oman would also have to cross mountain ranges. Ports would have to be expanded and in some cases retooled.
“It would take years to actually put down that infrastructure and it’s expensive, we’re talking tens of billions of dollars,” Rabobank’s DeLaura says. …

5 April
Why Trump Thinks He Can Walk Away From the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. is feeling much less pain than its allies are.
By Idrees Kahloon
(The Atlantic) … The Hormuz crisis has some beneficiaries: America’s adversaries. To prevent even higher oil prices, the Trump administration has lifted sanctions on Russian exports and even some of Iran’s. “Things that Iran and Russia had sought to achieve through negotiations with the United States, they’ve managed to achieve without having to negotiate,” Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, told me. “This is bailing out the Russian economy, which had been on the ropes, and, at least temporarily, it is giving a windfall to Iran.” Russia could recoup an additional $40 billion or more in oil exports this year, which it can plow into its war effort against Ukraine. Iranian oil production may be as high as before the war.
Although China is a heavy net importer of Middle Eastern gas and oil, it is recouping different dividends. China has learned that “if there is a crisis of any kind over Taiwan, we are not prepared for the ensuing economic fallout. We have not coordinated with allies about how we’re going to deal with the supply-chain disruptions,” Eyck Freymann, a fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of a forthcoming book, Defending Taiwan, told me. China does not need military superiority to triumph in a conflict over Taiwan; it may simply need to outlast the West. “China has built a fortress economy that is designed to withstand severe or even total disruptions in key commodity supply chains for several months,” Freymann said. The country has huge stockpiles of oil it can tap, and it has considerably diversified its energy sources, relying on coal, nuclear, and renewables. …

1 April
Britain to host 35 countries for strait of Hormuz talks, says Starmer
US understood not to be invited directly to talks that will explore ways of reopening critical waterway
The UK will convene 35 countries – excluding the US – to explore ways to reopen the strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping route for oil and gas that has been blocked by Iran.
Keir Starmer, the prime minister, said the next phase of discussions in the joint British and French efforts to secure the waterway would be held on Thursday, with Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, alongside international leaders.
Donald Trump has said it will be up to other countries to make the strait safe if the US ceases its strikes on Tehran, criticising the lack of backing for his war from European nations.
Starmer said on Wednesday the meeting would bring together 35 countries to “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and to resume the movement of vital commodities”.
No 10 said it would be the first time the countries had convened to discuss a viable plan to reopen the strait. The prime minister said British military planners would meet afterwards “to look at how we can marshal our capabilities and make the strait accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped”.
Anand to join U.K.-led talks on Strait of Hormuz following trip to Riyadh
(CTV) Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand will join talks Thursday with her counterparts from more than 30 other nations on finding diplomatic options to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz trade corridor.
Anand said all countries involved in the U.K.-hosted talks should know Canada will not hesitate to help secure the strait once there is a ceasefire.
“Canada will be advocating for freedom of navigation at all times and the need to ensure that international maritime law and the law of the sea is respected,” Anand said in an interview Wednesday.

31 March
Pakistan Weighs Hormuz Options After Iran Clears 20 Ships
By Bilal Hussain, Yongchang Chin and Weilun Soon
(Bloomberg) –Pakistan is considering options that include allowing other ships to ferry vital cargoes under its flag, after Iran said it would allow 20 of the nation’s vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — more than it currently has in the area.
After discussions between Tehran and Islamabad, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said in a post on X over the weekend that Iran had allowed the country to take 20 vessels “under the Pakistani flag” out through the Hormuz waterway. US President Donald Trump referenced the same green light in a newspaper interview.
But Pakistan does not have that many vessels in the Persian Gulf, according to ship-tracking data…. The last of Pakistan National Shipping Corp.’s vessels have already departed the gulf. That leaves the option of taking on other tankers to secure fertilizer, crude or other supplies the country sorely needs, and potentially re-flagging them to guarantee the necessary affiliation.
Kuwait has already said it would support Pakistan-flagged vessels with supplies of diesel and fuel.
… Pakistan’s agreement with Iran makes it the latest Asian nation to negotiate a bilateral deal to secure access to trapped cargoes and tankers, following Malaysia, Thailand and India.
The war in the Middle East…has cut off some of the world’s largest oil and gas producers and created a dramatic global energy supply shock. Asian nations, especially emerging economies with limited fiscal space to absorb higher prices, have been the most directly impacted.

30 March
Gulf allies privately make the case to Trump to keep fighting until Iran is decisively defeated
(AP) — Gulf allies of the United States, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are urging President Donald Trump to continue prosecuting the war against Iran, arguing that Tehran hasn’t been weakened enough by the month-long U.S.-led bombing campaign, according to U.S., Gulf and Israeli officials.

29 March
Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on
(AP) — U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have driven up prices, darkened the outlook for the world economy, sent global stock markets reeling and forced developing countries to ration fuel and subsidize energy costs to protect their poorest.
Ongoing strikes and counterstrikes on Persian Gulf refineries, pipelines, gas fields and tanker terminals threaten to the prolong the global economic pain for months, even years.
“A week ago or certainly two weeks ago, I would have said: If the war stopped that day, the long-term implications would be pretty small,’’ said Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But what we’re seeing is infrastructure actually being destroyed, which means the ramifications of this war are going to be long-lived.’’
Iran has hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas terminal, which produces 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. The March 18 strike wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and repairs will take up to five years, state-owned QatarEnergy said.
… The Persian Gulf accounts for a big share of exports of two key fertilizers, a third of urea and a quarter of ammonia. Producers in the region enjoy an advantage: easy access to low-cost natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers.
Up to 40% of world exports of nitrogen fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now that the passage is blocked, urea prices are up 50% since the war and ammonia 20%. Big agricultural producer Brazil is especially vulnerable because it gets 85% of its fertilizer from imports, Alpine Macro commodity strategist Kelly Xu wrote in a commentary. Egypt, a big fertilizer producer itself, needs natural gas to make the stuff and production falters when it can’t get enough.

28 March
Week 4 Recap of the Strait of Hormuz | Is the Aya-TOLL-ah Booth Open to Everyone?
(WGOWS) The Week Four recap of the events transpiring in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf covers issues including the latest update from the Joint Maritime Information Center; the major news stories as featured in gCaptain; the latest passages over the past 48 hours via Marine Traffic; and how may the United States used the newly arrived Marines in the area.

Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf
Michael Christopher Low
While the rest of the world is mainly concerned about the energy disruptions caused by the Iran war, the Gulf countries are more anxious about the Islamic Republic’s threats to their desalination facilities. If the US attempts to seize Kharg Island, it could spell disaster for the region’s “saltwater kingdoms.”
(Project Syndicate) The oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf are often described as petrostates. But the US-Israeli war with Iran has highlighted that they are also saltwater kingdoms, societies whose survival depends on desalination, or converting seawater into potable water at industrial scale. Life in the Gulf relies on the “black magic” of turning oil and oil revenue into water. This technological prowess has fueled the region’s dynamic growth, but now it looms as its greatest vulnerability.

Pakistan secures Iran deal to send 20 ships through Strait of Hormuz
Islamabad’s diplomatic push bears fruit as the world watches for signs of a broader breakthrough.
(Al Jazeera) Iran has agreed to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in what Islamabad has called a meaningful step towards easing one of the worst energy crises in modern history.
Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister, announced the move on Saturday, posting on X that two ships would cross daily under the arrangement.

Yemen’s Houthis launch missile attack on Israel as war with Iran intensifies
Rebels say they fired a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting ‘sensitive Israeli military sites’ in southern Israel.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have attacked Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles – their first such strikes since the United States-Israeli war on Iran began.
… The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital Sanaa since 2014 and so far have stayed out of the US-Israeli war. The militia’s attacks on shipping vessels during the Israel-Hamas war upended commercial transit in the Red Sea, through which about $1 trillion worth of goods passes each year.
Mohammed Mansour, the Houthis’ deputy information minister, told local media on Saturday, “We are conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options.”
Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry, reporting from Sanaa, said a potential naval blockade on Israel-linked ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb strait would hurt Israel’s economy, as about 30 percent of its imports pass through the waterway in the Red Sea.
The involvement of the Houthis in the US-Israeli war on Iran would complicate the deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford, the aircraft carrier that went to port in Crete on Monday for repairs.
Sending the carrier back into the Red Sea could draw it into the same high tempo of attacks seen by the USS Dwight D Eisenhower in 2024 and the USS Harry S Truman in the 2025 American campaign against the Houthis.

Air strikes in Iraq kill three PMF fighters, two police
Ex-paramilitary group, set up to fight ISIL, but now integrated in Iraqi forces, blames US and Israel.
(Al Jazeera, Reuters, AFP) Saturday also saw two drones targeting an airbase serving as a hub for US and coalition forces near Erbil airport in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region.  [Al Jazeera’s Nicolas] Haque said the US C-RAM air defence system was activated and intercepted the drones.
Iraq attacks ‘a worrying development’: Macron
In parallel, Kurdish news outlet Rudaw reported a drone attack on the house of Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish region, in the western town of Duhok.
Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, condemned “in the strongest terms” the assault.
Since the war broke out, pro-Iran armed groups within the PMF, which was formed on the orders of Najaf-based Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in 2014 to fight ISIL (ISIS), have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and beyond and have themselves been targeted.

26 March
Why Iraq is the most fragile front in the US-Israel war on Iran
Iraq is under attack from all sides as militias and foreign powers clash.
War has spread into Iraq, where strikes by the United States and Israel hit Iran-backed groups, and the militias fire back. Oil has stopped flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the state’s grip on power is already fragile. As the war rages on, what will it mean for Iraq?

Ukraine Finalizes Air Defense Deals With Gulf Nations Amid War in Mideast
(NYT) The Ukrainian president visited the Middle East, where he sought to shift his country from a recipient of military aid to a supplier.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine hailed his Middle East tour to promote anti-drone technologies as a success, saying on Saturday that he had negotiated air defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
In the Mideast conflict, Ukraine has sought to shift its image from a recipient of military aid to a supplier. It sees an opening to export its low-cost, innovative designs created during the war with Russia to compensate for shortages of weapons and ammunition. Ukraine’s military often relies on consumer technologies such as virtual-reality goggles for gamers and off-the-shelf drone components.
The agreements under negotiation with the United Arab Emirates and finalized with Qatar extend for 10 years, Mr. Zelensky told reporters on a conference call, and could be worth “billions.” He spoke from Qatar, one of the Persian Gulf states that has been targeted by Iranian drones.

The Third Gulf War And The World It Is Already Remaking – Analysis
By Dr. Mohamed Chtatou
A war that began with an assassination is reshaping energy markets, security architectures, and global geopolitics in ways that will not simply reverse when the shooting stops.
(Eurasia Review) …“Operation Epic Fury” (United States) and “Operation The Roaring Lion” (Israel).
The opening salvo was spectacular and deliberate: the most dramatic aspect was the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, an event which elicited celebrations among some Iranians but dark and angry responses among regime loyalists.  Within hours, Iran retaliated, launching missiles at American bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain. Additional missiles landed in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Kuwait City, and Riyadh. Iran also fired missiles at Israel, though these were largely intercepted by US naval forces and local air defense systems.
Four weeks later, the war has not ended. A ceasefire remains elusive. But even before the guns fall silent, the Third Gulf War…has produced effects so vast and so structural that they are already irreversible in their outlines. Energy systems have been shattered. A regional security architecture built over decades has collapsed. A food crisis is threatening to tip into famine. And the geopolitical map of the Greater Middle East is being redrawn not in diplomatic chambers but in the rubble of refineries and the wreckage of missile interceptor magazines.