Canada Politics 2019 elections

Written by  //  April 10, 2019  //  Canada, Politics  //  No comments

Chantal Hébert: No easy solution for Justin Trudeau’s pipeline woes
Justin Trudeau’s government already has a pre-election war on its hands with Ontario and a number of other provinces over its recently imposed carbon tax. Next week’s Alberta election could raise the climate change policy stakes to a new high just in time for the upcoming federal campaign.
The result of that provincial vote could force the prime minister to choose between salvaging a minimum of credibility for his climate change policy or living up to his oft-repeated assessment that the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is in the national interest.

9 April
Trudeau’s personal brand continues to tarnish, new poll suggests
(Reuters) The ruling Liberals have lost 6 percentage points since the start of the year, ceding the lead to the rival Conservatives, according to a Nanos Research poll published on Tuesday.
If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 34.9 percent of the vote, the Liberals 32.8 percent and the left-leaning New Democratic Party 16.6 percent. The poll suggests the result would be deadlock or a fragile minority government.
“The Liberals have taken a hit, but they’re still competitive,” said pollster Nik Nanos. “The most significant effect has been the negative impact on the prime minister’s personal brand.”
Nanos: Qualities of a Good Political Leader–Few[er] than half of Canadians (43.3%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 39.7 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. Three in ten (29.8%) say JagmeetSingh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.4 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.6%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader 27.1 percent said Blanchet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only).

26 March
Trudeau losing ground in B.C. ahead of federal election, poll suggests
(TorStar) Though British Columbia should be fertile ground for the Liberals to grow support ahead of October’s general election, the party’s biggest asset in 2015 is now its biggest liability: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
That’s according to Martyn Brown, a former BC Liberal — a provincial party that has no ties to the federal one and is often aligned with small “c” conservative values — who was chief of staff for the province’s premier during the 2000s.

5 March
Conservatives take slight lead over Liberals in latest Nanos tracking poll
(CTV) The weekly tracking data, which ended March 1 and was released on Tuesday, shows the Conservatives at 34.7 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 34.2 per cent.
The NDP is at 15.5 per cent and the Green Party at 9.1 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois got 3.6 per cent of the vote, while the People’s Party of Canada got 0.7 per cent.
The latest Nanos survey data also show that 52.2 of respondents think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the qualities of a good leader, while 39.1 per cent think the same of Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. Just over 27 per cent think NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good leader.

26 February
Liberal Rachel Bendayan wins Outremont in byelection
Liberal Rachel Bendayan has won the federal riding of Outremont in Quebec after taking 40 per cent of the vote with 95 per cent of polls reporting.
“I will honour your vote by working very hard,” she said Monday night at Liberal party headquarters in Montreal’s Outremont.
She stressed that the Liberals would continue to fight climate change and promote a national housing strategy.
Mélanie Joly, the minister of official languages and La Francophonie, said that despite losing to the NDP in 2015, Bendayan was always a strong candidate who continued working in the riding in the years since.

Win, lose or draw? Byelection results suggest struggles ahead for major parties
there’s something in these byelection results for just about everyone to be happy about. There’s plenty of things there for them to worry about, too — and less than eight months left to worry about them
By Éric Grenier
With 40.4 per cent of the vote, Rachel Bendayan put up the best result for the Liberals in Outremont since 2004. If the party can repeat these gains in other parts of Quebec, the New Democrats will be hard-pressed to hold any of the 16 seats they won in the province in 2015.
But the Liberals will struggle to hold or win suburban seats in the rest of Canada if they repeat the kind of losses they suffered in Burnaby South (a drop of 7.9 points from the previous vote) and York–Simcoe (a drop of 8.8 points).
Mixed results for Bernier, new high for Greens
People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier might be pleased with Laura-Lynn Thompson’s 10.6 per cent result in Burnaby South, but Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is likely relieved that the PPC captured just two per cent of the vote in Outremont and York–Simcoe.
The Greens managing 12.5 per cent of the vote in Outremont — the party’s best result in any federal election in any riding in Quebec — is notable, as the environment has emerged as a more pressing issue for voters in Quebec than in other parts of the country.
It makes for a crowded field in the province — the Bloc Québécois’ new leader, Yves-François Blanchet, is a former environment minister and Singh has used the Liberal government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline as a wedge issue in Quebec. There might not be room for three parties in Quebec going hard on the environmental file.

24 February
How Monday’s byelections preview the key themes of this fall’s federal election
By Éric Grenier
(CBC) There’s always something to learn from byelections. For starters, Jagmeet Singh will find out whether he has a future as the leader of the NDP tomorrow.
But the results of all three of tomorrow’s byelection contests also will shine a spotlight on some of the key dynamics that could decide the 2019 federal election.
Local factors always play a significant role in byelections, making it hazardous to draw overly broad conclusions from the results. But they’re still instructive.
We know, for example, that how a party performs in byelections offers clues to how they might fare in subsequent general elections, that prime ministers with better byelection records have a higher chance of staying in office and that these seemingly minor affairs can have enormous historical significance.
Singh is staking his leadership on the voters of Burnaby South, a riding in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland. If he doesn’t get it, his days as leader of the NDP are likely to be numbered.
The results in York–Simcoe will be a good gauge of just how much of a complication [Maxime Bernier’s]  People’s Party will prove to be for Scheer in October.

23 February
The Orange Wave’s last stand? Outremont byelection a critical test for NDP in Quebec
By Jonathan Montpetit
Strong second place ‘would already be a win for the party,’ says ex-adviser
(CBC) In 2007, Tom Mulcair — then in self-imposed exile from Quebec politics — pulled off an unlikely win in a federal byelection, taking the Liberal stronghold of Outremont for the NDP.
It was only the second time the NDP had won a seat in Quebec. But from this narrow beachhead, Mulcair and then leader Jack Layton dramatically grew their support in the province.
Their effort, of course, culminated in the Orange Wave, when the party won 59 of Quebec’s 75 seats in the 2011 general election and stormed into Opposition.
Julia Sanchez, a former international development executive who lived in Ottawa for many years before recently moving back to Outremont, is now carrying the NDP banner. Montreal MPs Hélène Laverdière and Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet — two Orange Wavers who won’t run in the next election — have been stumping for her. So too has Charles Taylor, the 87-year-old philosopher who has run for the party several times.
The Liberal candidate, Rachel Bendayan, ran against Mulcair in the last election, finishing second by more than 10 points. This time, she said, she benefits not only from a bit of name recognition, but also the record of the Trudeau government, pointing to investments in public transit, social housing and the Canada Child Benefit.
The Liberals, though, are heading into Monday’s three byelections weighed down by the controversy surrounding the government’s alleged interference in the prosecution of Quebec engineering giant SNC-Lavalin, which is accused of bribing Libyan officials. Several recent polls suggest Liberal support has suffered in the wake of the scandal, and they are now in a dead heat nationally with the Conservatives.
Bendayan, though, doesn’t believe the scandal is registering with voters in Outremont. “I haven’t heard much about it at the doors,” she said.

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