2020 U.S. election Donald Trump

Written by  //  September 7, 2019  //  Politics, U.S.  //  No comments

Trump says supporters could ‘demand’ he not leave office after two terms
Trump has talked about the issue before. In March last year, according to a recording obtained by CNN, he told a closed-door fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago that “maybe we’ll have to give that a shot some day,” in reference to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s abolishment of term limits. It was unclear if the comments were made in jest.
The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution explicitly states that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” (16 June)

7 September
Frank Bruni: The Republicans Are Dropping Like Flies
We talk and write all the time about the Never Trumpers … The more interesting and maybe predictive group are the Republicans who, to varying degrees, tried to make do with Trump, found ways to rationalize him and still won’t acknowledge how offensive he is but have fled or are fleeing government nonetheless. Republicans in Congress, especially in the House [are]making their predictions with their feet, and they’re heading for the exit.
To recap: Before the 2018 midterms, 46 Republicans but only 20 Democrats decided not to seek re-election to their offices in Congress, and among those, 32 Republicans and 11 Democrats weren’t doing that in order to run for some higher, different post. They were just bolting. The discrepancy between the Republican and Democratic numbers amounted to a weather forecast — and an accurate one at that. Although Democrats didn’t improve their standing in the Senate, they picked up a whopping 40 seats in the House.
Heading into the 2020 election, 19 Republicans in Congress have already announced that they won’t seek another term in their current office, a number higher than at the same point two years ago. Of the 19, 17 aren’t retiring from Congress to pursue some kind of political promotion. Meanwhile, only four Democrats in all are retiring from Congress. To analyze these numbers in the context of what happened in the midterms is to conclude that Republicans are limping toward a disastrous Election Day.

6 September
Trump in high-stakes balancing act between oil and corn ahead of 2020 bid
(Reuters) – At a closed-door meeting at the White House on Aug. 19, President Donald Trump looked increasingly alarmed as his top envoy to China delivered evidence of rising Farm Belt frustration over his biofuel policy along with a stark warning: You’ve got a problem in Iowa. …  the political bind Trump has found himself in as he looks to two of his most prized constituencies – Big Oil and Big Corn – to again propel him into the presidency next year.
It also shows how the biofuel debate, once an overlooked policy backwater, has become a volatile flashpoint as Trump tries to appease these competing interests.
The Renewable Fuel Standard requires oil refiners to blend biofuels like corn-based ethanol into the fuel pool or pay a price, but allows the government to issue waivers to small refineries who can prove compliance causes a hardship.
Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency has handed out 85 such waivers since he took office, saving the oil industry hundreds of millions of dollars but enraging the corn lobby which argues it kills demand.
John Cassidy: “Sharpiegate” and Donald Trump’s Perpetual Cone of Uncertainty
As we move closer to the election, Trump’s war on the news media, and on the very notion of truth, will only intensify. As the past few days have demonstrated, even the onset of hurricanes or other natural disasters won’t stop it.

4 September
Wishful thinking?
Trump is in serious danger, and his own advisers know it
By Greg Sargent
(WaPo) Trump’s conduct is so outsize and crazy, and his advisers’ defenses of it are so strained and absurd, that we often end up overlooking the much more mundane explanation for all of this — that Trump is failing on many fronts, and as a result, he and his advisers fear he’ll lose reelection.
Politico has an illuminating new report that helps pry loose this mask. The gist is that Trump’s own advisers are aware that there are multiple flashing indicators right now that very well might put Trump’s reelection in serious doubt.
Among these: Trump’s trade war with China will likely worsen; his rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement might not pass Congress, denying him a badly needed victory on a signature issue; and the likelihood of a recession has increased. What’s more, the U.S. manufacturing sector just contracted by one very closely watched metric, and Trump’s trade wars are a key reason for that.
‘They are riding a rubber ducky into alligator-infested waters’
(Politico) Trump faces a contracting U.S. factory sector, a narrow path to trade victories and investors spooked by recession risks — all before an election year.

22 August
One of these statements might be dismissed with a sardonic remark, but taken together they indicate a man who is seriously sick and delusional. It is horrific.
The 7 Most Unhinged Things Trump Said on Wednesday
“Numb to Trump” op-eds have become their own micro-genre in the past few years, but every so often a day will come along in which a string of jaw-dropping comments will slap the desensitized awake. Wednesday, was one of those days, with Trump declaring himself the “chosen one,” reiterating that he’s intent on ending birthright citizenship, and joking (maybe) about giving himself the Medal of Honor. Here are all of the unhinged Trump musings you may have missed.

When Trump Talks About Jews, He’s Really Talking to Evangelical Christians
By Ed Kilgore
(New York) Trump’s not as interested in Jewish opinion as he often sounds. He’s just using Jews and Israel to express his solidarity with Israel’s, and God’s, truly loyal followers over there in that nice Evangelical church. He needs every one of them in 2020.
Trump says that Jewish people who vote for Democrats are ‘very disloyal to Israel,’ denies his remarks are anti-Semitic
“I think if you vote for a Democrat, you are very, very disloyal to Israel and to the Jewish people,” Trump said in an exchange with reporters outside the White House before departing for an event in Kentucky.
On Tuesday, Trump had criticized Democrats over the views of Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). Both women have long been fierce critics of Israel and its treatment of Palestinians. They support the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, a global protest of Israel.

17 August
Trump has one playbook, and very few plays left in it
By Dan Balz
(WaPo) After a week in which the threat of recession rocked global financial markets, his trade war with China showed no signs of progress and the government of Israel got into a nasty dispute with two members of Congress, President Trump went to bed Thursday night with other weighty issues on his mind.
“Great news,” he tweeted. “Tonight we broke the all-time attendance record previously held by Elton John at #SNHUArena [Southern New Hampshire University] in Manchester!” This is the frivolous mind-set of the president of the United States. Trump’s statements over the past few days have brought into focus once again something fundamental about him: He has little understanding of what it means to govern.
… a new Fox News poll of the 2020 campaign showed Trump losing to every Democrat tested. More telling was that the incumbent president did not break 40 percent against any of them. Polls are polls, and the election is more than a year away, but those numbers should concern the president’s advisers.
Trump is following the same limited playbook that got him elected. Whether those tactics have the same potency they once did is the question that will determine his and the country’s future. Meanwhile, serious problems are in front of him, and he is struggling to find the answers.

12 August
Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
(Politico) There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
… If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.

23 June
Trump warns he’s not ‘prepared to lose’ reelection
President Trump declared that he is not “prepared to lose” reelection in 2020, saying he does not believe the official results of the popular vote count from his first election

18 June
Trump stages his greatest show yet
The president’s elaborate reelection rally in Florida featured thousands of adoring supporters
Trump, at Rally in Florida, Kicks Off His 2020 Re-election Bid
President Trump delivered a fierce denunciation of the news media, the political establishment and what he called his radical opponents on Tuesday as he opened his re-election campaign in front of a huge crowd of raucous supporters by evoking the dark messaging and personal grievances that animated his 2016 victory.
… Mr. Trump mocked and disparaged Democrats, calling them the leaders of an “angry, left-wing mob” and declaring that the 2020 election will be a “verdict on the un-American conduct of those who tried to undermine our great democracy, undermine you.”
He extolled his record as president — the growing economy, the tax cuts and deregulation — but did not offer any new policies or a cohesive agenda for a second term that might expand his political appeal. As he formally declared his intention to run again, he told the audience that his new slogan would be “Keep America Great,” pledging to wage a relentless battle on behalf of his supporters. Fact-Checking Trump’s Orlando Rally: Russia, the Wall and Tax Cuts

Trump Should Be a Shoo-in for 2020, But Low Approval Holds Him Back
By Shannon Pettypiece, Mike Dorning, and Bloomberg June 18, 2019
(Fortune) Donald Trump enjoys a strong economy, a nation at relative peace, the advantage of incumbency and a well funded campaign — assets that make him a good bet for re-election, even though most voters say they don’t like him.
Trump will formally kick off his 2020 re-election bid in a prime-time speech to as many as 20,000 supporters in Florida on Tuesday, beginning a contest that serves as a referendum on both his job performance and his personal conduct in office.
Set aside his sagging approval ratings, the Mueller report and other controversies that have surrounded Trump’s Oval Office. The bottom line is that incumbent presidents seldom lose re-election, especially with a peacetime economy as strong as the U.S. presently enjoys. And Trump has made clear that he wants voters thinking only of dollar signs when they go to the polls.
As 2020 looms, everyone is taking Trump’s bid for a second presidential term seriously
By David Shribman, Executive Editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
(Globe & Mail) Hardly anyone took Donald Trump seriously when he rode an escalator down to his Trump Tower lobby four years ago and said he was running for president. When he repeats the campaign-declaration exercise Tuesday in a 20,000-seat arena in Orlando – no downward descent by escalator this time, as the Trump team will take no chances with the metaphor that might prompt – the country, the world and especially his two dozen Democratic campaign rivals will be taking very seriously the man who is the unlikely 45th president of the United States.
Once again Mr. Trump lags in public-opinion polls and in the very public opinions of the American political establishment. But this time he begins his presidential campaign with the symbolic and real advantages of the incumbent:
A stunning Air Force One jetliner that attracts awe and attention wherever it lands (“The No. 1 perk of being president,” in former president Barack Obama’s estimation);
The power of the White House “bully pulpit” (the phrase comes from one of his Republican presidential predecessors, the fellow insurgent Theodore Roosevelt);
The ability to convert campaign notions to national policy with the stroke of a pen or, just as likely, with the signature Trump twist of a tweet (a capacity available to no one else in politics).
Those Trump second-term advantages are married with substantial challenges, not least of which is that the President lacks several elements his re-elected predecessors have possessed:
Personal discipline (Mr. Trump is contemptuous of the conventional political advice he receives from seasoned veterans);
The authentic support of party leaders (like Mr. Carter, Mr. Trump has surface loyalty from his party but that loyalty is like 19th-century American pioneers’ description of Nebraska’s Platte River, which they had to cross while moving west: broad but shallow); and
A genuine geopolitical base (Mr. Trump commands the Southern states of the Old Confederacy and some of the traditional Midwestern bloc, but many of the farm states are reeling from his tariffs on agriculture exports and his hold on vital swing states is tentative at best).
A grave danger sign for Mr. Trump: The three most important swing states outside of Ohio, which Republicans traditionally capture if they win the White House, are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. All sided with Mr. Trump in 2016. All elected Democratic governors last year.
16 June
Trump Wants to Neutralize Democrats on Health Care. Republicans Say Let It Go.
(NYT) As President Trump prepares to kick off his bid for a second term this week, he is anxiously searching for a way to counter Democrats on health care, one of their central issues, even though many of his wary Republican allies would prefer he let it go for now.
Since he announced his previous run four years ago, Mr. Trump has promised to replace President Barack Obama’s health care law with “something terrific” that costs less and covers more without ever actually producing such a plan.
Now he is vowing to issue the plan within a month or two, reviving a campaign promise with broad consequences for next year’s contest. If he follows through, it could help shape a presidential race that Democrats would like to focus largely on health care.

5 June
Conservative Icon George Will Shreds Republicans For Turning Into A Trump ‘Cult’
The Republican Party was for decades the party of conservative ideas, but longtime conservative columnist and TV commentator George F. Will said the GOP has abandoned those tenets to support President Donald Trump.
“It’s become a cult ― it’s become a cult because of an absence of ideas,” he said Wednesday on MSNBC. “Because they’ve jettisoned the ideas.”
Then he gave one example of how quickly they’ve sold out a once-core principle to appease Trump:

“For years, decades, all the 20th century almost, conservatives said, ‘We’re for free trade.’ Trump said, ‘By the way, you’re not anymore.’ And they said, ‘OK, we’re not for free trade anymore,’ or they pretend to be.”

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