U.S. Economy July 2021-

Written by  //  September 23, 2021  //  Economy, U.S.  //  No comments

Why Trouble at a Chinese Real-Estate Company Led to a U.S. Stock Market Plunge
Wall Street seems to be wrapping its head around just how fast things are changing in Xi’s China. Evergrande’s woes are emblematic of those changes.
(New York) While Wall Street scrambled to understand how an Evergrande bankruptcy would affect the global financial system, another narrative started to form: that Evergrande’s troubles are best read as yet another sign that Xi is dead serious about cracking down on the go-go culture of the last two decades, zeroing in on video games, tech, and the elite — including billionaire real-estate developers. This line of thinking also tends to lead to the seismic conclusion that all the U.S. companies pinning their long-term growth strategies on doing more business in China may soon have to do a major rethink.

18 September
Geriatric millennials have the most power in the workforce right now
Older millennials and younger Gen Xers are driving America’s Great Resignation, per HBR.
In the middle of this cohort are geriatric millennials, known for acting as a generational bridge.
With their unique skillset and greater freedom to quit, they have the upper hand in the workforce.

(Business Insider) By now, you’ve probably heard about the Great Resignation.
Coined by psychologist Anthony Klotz, the trend involves millions of Americans dropping out of the workforce throughout the economy as it reopened more and more. Over 3.6 million people quit in April, May, June, and July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Business Review that looked at 9 million employee records from more than 4,000 companies, mid-career employees are driving the quits. Resignation rates are highest among 30- to 45-year-old employees, increasing on average by more than 20% over the past year.

8 September
America’s new retirement age is 62 — or younger. The ‘Great Resignation’ is giving boomers their golden years back.
Nearly half of Americans in a New York Fed survey said they expected to retire before turning 62.
Retiring earlier lets Americans use their “golden decade” for better financial planning.
But the economy depends on older workers, and a move to retiring early could upend the labor market.

4 September
Why America has 8.4 million unemployed when there are 10 million job openings
The economy is undergoing massive changes. There’s a big mismatch at the moment between the jobs available and what workers want.
(WaPo) [T]he nation remains in the midst of a deadly pandemic with covid-19 hospitalizations back at their highest rates since January. The surge is weighing on the labor market again, with a mere 235,000 jobs added in August. There are still 5 million fewer jobs compared to before the pandemic, reflecting ongoing problems, including child care as some schools and day cares shut down again from outbreaks.
This weekend, the employment crisis will hit an inflection point as many of the unemployed lose $300 in federal weekly benefits and millions of gig workers and self-employed lose unemployment aid entirely. Some anticipate a surge in job seekers, though in 22 states that already phased out those benefits, workers didn’t flood back to jobs.

30 August
Nouriel Roubini: The Stagflation Threat Is Real
(Project Syndicate) I have been for several months that the current mix of persistently loose monetary, credit, and fiscal policies will excessively stimulate aggregate demand and lead to inflationary overheating. Compounding the problem, medium-term negative supply shocks will reduce potential growth and increase production costs. Combined, these demand and supply dynamics could lead to 1970s-style stagflation (rising inflation amid a recession) and eventually even to a severe debt crisis.

Heather Cox Richardson August 10, 2021
Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor released the jobs report for August 2021. It was stronger than economists had predicted, and even stronger than the administration had hoped.
In July, employers added 943,000 jobs, and unemployment fell to 5.4%. Average hourly wages increased, as well. They are 4% higher than they were a year ago.
Harvard Professor Jason Furman, former chair of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, tweeted: “I have yet to find a blemish in this jobs report. I’ve never before seen such a wonderful set of economic data.” He noted the report showed “Job gains in most sectors… Big decline in unemployment rate, even bigger for Black & Hispanic/Latino… Red[uctio]n in long-term unemp[loyment]… Solid (nominal) wage gains.”
“Still a long way to go,” he wrote. “[W]e’re about 7.5 million jobs short of where we should have been right now absent the pandemic. But we’ve made a lot of progress.”
The jobs report is an important political marker because it appears to validate the Democrats’ approach to the economy, the system the president calls the “Biden Plan.” That plan started in January, as soon as Biden took office, using the federal government to combat the coronavirus pandemic as aggressively as the administration could and, at the same time, using federal support to restart the economy.

6 August
New York Intelligencer Slack Chat: Delta Be Damned, the U.S. Economy Keeps Chugging Along
Benjamin Hart spoke with Intelligencer senior writer Eric Levitz about what appears to be a piece of unambiguously good news, the state of inflation and labor shortages, and to what extent the pandemic still threatens the economy.
Ben: Friday’s jobs report was encouraging in almost every sense of the word. There were strong hiring numbers in most industries, for a total of 943,000 jobs added in July. The unemployment rate ticked down significantly, to 5.4 percent. (Still more than a point higher than pre-pandemic.) It’s never smart to make too much out of one month’s data, but this comes amid generally strong economic indicators elsewhere. What is your first-blush impression of this report and how it fits in with the overall economic picture in America?
Eric: My first impression is that the recovery is much stronger than we realized (or at least, was much stronger before Delta really took off.) The report didn’t just show that the economy added more jobs in July than had been expected; it also revised June’s number upward. As the Times’ Neil Irwin notes, yesterday, the consensus estimate of the average monthly job gain across May, June, and July was 567,000. That number is now 832,000.
What’s more, the drop in the unemployment rate is especially impressive because the pool of job-seekers also expanded. The headline unemployment rate tells us the percentage of Americans who are actively looking for work but can’t find any.

2 August
$1 trillion infrastructure bill heads for Senate debate
(AP) — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sought to speed up consideration of a nearly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package Monday, promising that Democrats would work with Republicans to put together amendments.
Formally the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the proposal clocked in at some 2,700 pages late Sunday after a hurry-up-and-wait rare weekend session.

29 July
US economy returns to pre-pandemic level but misses growth forecasts
(The Guardian) Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 6.5% annualised rate in the three months to the end of June, according to figures from the US Commerce Department on Thursday, as government financial support helped power a sharp rise in consumer spending.
This marked an increase on a revised rate of 6.3% in the first three months of the year, but was lower than forecasts of an 8.5% rise – stoking fears over a faster than expected slowdown in the world’s largest economy amid the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19.
Shortages of workers, raw materials and computer chips in recent months have also threatened to weigh on growth and drive up inflation.

26 July
US Economic Turmoil: The Paradox of Recovery and Inflation
By Syed Zain Abbas Rizv
(Modern Diplomacy) The US economy has been a rollercoaster since the pandemic cinched the world last year. As lockdowns turned into routine and the buzz of a bustling life came to a sudden halt, a problem manifested itself to the US regime. The problem of sustaining economic activity while simultaneously fighting the virus. It was the intent of ‘The American Rescue Plan’ to provide aid to the US citizens, expand healthcare, and help buoy the population as the recession was all but imminent. Now as the global economy starts to rebound in apparent post-pandemic reality, the US regime faces a dilemma. Either tighten the screws on the overheating economy and risk putting an early break on recovery or let the economy expand and face a prospect of unrelenting inflation for years to follow.

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