U.S. primaries and mid-term elections 2022

Written by  //  September 23, 2022  //  Politics, U.S.  //  No comments

2022 Midterm Primary Election Calendar
(NYT) In seven months of primary contests before Election Day, Republicans and Democrats will wage internal fights over electability, ideological purity and, in the case of the G.O.P., loyalty to former President Donald J. Trump. The primaries begin with Texas on March 1 and continue through September before the general election on Nov. 8.
2022 Midterms: A Guide to the Races Worth Watching
(New York) A cheat sheet for all the crucial races, upsets, and campaign drama from now through Election Day.
On TikTok, Election Misinformation Thrives Ahead of Midterms
The fast-growing platform’s poor track record during recent voting abroad does not bode well for elections in the U.S., researchers said.

23 September
NYT Editorial board: This Threat to Democracy Is Hiding in Plain Sight
Many top Republican Party officials and lawmakers have spent the last two years striking back, and drawn the most attention for their efforts to pass “voter integrity” laws that aim to make voting more onerous under the guise of preventing fraud. From January 2021 to May of this year, just under three dozen restrictive laws had been passed in nearly 20 states, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
These are pernicious laws, and they undermine Americans’ hard-won rights to vote. But just as important is the matter of who counts the votes, and who decides which votes count and which do not.

7 September
The Mandela Effect To beat Ron Johnson and save the Senate, Wisconsin’s Democratic hopeful tries to rebrand himself.
Like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, [Mandela] Barnes emerged from the progressive wing of his party but today — unlike earlier in his career — he no longer calls himself a progressive in an attempt to appear less polarizing. Running hard on an economic message focused on a revival of local manufacturing and safeguarding small farmers, he is consciously attempting to increase his crossover appeal in a state that is more than 80 percent white and politically purple.
Johnson is probably the most endangered Republican senator this year: He is the one running for reelection in a state Joe Biden carried in 2020, and picking him off would virtually assure Democrats hold or expand their control of the Senate. The party may be feeling giddy about that proposition, though there are plenty of reasons to believe actually getting the job done will be far harder than it looks

5 September
Where Will the Midterms Go From Here?
The 2022 midterms could still take some twists and turns in the fall. Control of the Senate might not be resolved until another Georgia general election runoff, this one in December. Politics could stay hot even as the weather turns cold.
By Ed Kilgore
Traditionally, Labor Day is considered the time when general election campaigns really kick into gear. That’s not always true these days, and a few states — Delaware, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Louisiana — have yet to even hold primaries. But there is some genuine suspense as we head into the fall season, as Democrats are doing far better than expected. It’s a good time to look at some historical precedents and consider where things stand, and what we can expect in the last two months of the midterm cycle.
The race may be a referendum on Trump, not just Biden.
Midterms are typically referenda on the sitting president, but there is one person whose outsized presence could change the usual equation: Donald Trump. If the former president announces his 2024 candidacy, and/or is indicted before November 8, it might at least partially make this a “choice” election. That could boost base turnout in both parties, but it’s more likely to benefit Democrats; suburban swing voters who supported Biden in 2020 but flirted with the GOP in a midterm dominated by economic jitters, fears of crime, and “woke” elites may be put off by Trump’s lingering presence.

31 August
Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election in Alaska, defeating Palin
(WaPo) Democrat Mary Peltola has won a special election for the U.S. House in Alaska, defeating Republican Sarah Palin and becoming the first Alaska Native to win a seat in Congress as well as the first woman to clinch the state’s at-large district.
Peltola’s win flips a seat that had long been in Republican hands. She will serve the remainder of a term left open by the sudden death of Rep. Don Young (R) in March. Young represented Alaska in Congress for 49 years.
Peltola, who’s Yup’ik, is a tribal fisheries manager and former state representative who led in initial counts after the Aug. 16 election. But her win wasn’t assured until Wednesday, when Alaska election officials made decisive second-choice counts using the state’s new ranked-choice voting system.
Palin’s defeat comes in her first campaign since she stepped down as Alaska’s governor in 2009; former president Donald Trump endorsed her and held a rally on her behalf in Anchorage.

27 August
Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House
While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials
(WaPo) After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

24 August
Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave
Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, it’s increasingly hard to see the once-clear signs of a G.O.P. advantage.
By Nate Cohn, Chief political analyst
(NYT) At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections.
But as the start of the general election campaign nears, it’s becoming increasingly hard to find any concrete signs of Republican strength.
…a growing pile of evidence suggesting that Democrats have rebounded in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision in late June to overturn Roe v. Wade. No matter the indicator, it’s hard to see the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage.
One special election would be easy to dismiss. But it’s not alone.
There have been five special congressional elections since the court’s Dobbs ruling overturned Roe, and Democrats have outperformed Mr. Biden’s 2020 showing in four of them. In the fifth district, Alaska’s at-large House special, the ranked-choice voting count is not complete, but they appear poised to outperform him there as well.
Don’t underestimate Charlie Crist. He’s going for DeSantis’s jugular.
(WaPo) Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) obliterated opponent Nikki Fried in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Florida governor. And now Crist, himself a former Republican governor of the state, goes up against the current Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, who has visions of the Oval Office dancing in his head. Just as Lawton Chiles did with his 1994 defeat of Jeb Bush for the same office, Crist has a rare opportunity to knock a would-be presidential candidate off track. And it looks like he has every intention of doing so.
Four takeaways from the New York and Florida primaries
Analysis by Amber Phillips
(WaPo) A Democrat who campaigned on abortion rights won in a New York swing district, and more MAGA Republicans may soon be coming to Washington
1. The Trump caucus will probably be strong in Congress next year
2. Democrats get another surprise August win driven by abortion rights
3. Democrats lose a major name in Congress because of redistricting
The epitome of Democrats’ redistricting problem is in Manhattan, where two Democratic committee chairs in Congress and huge names in New York politics had to face off for one newly redrawn district — Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn B. Maloney. In the end, voters rather easily decided to choose Nadler — and Maloney lost her job because Democrats’ gerrymandering backfired on them.
4. Can Florida Democrats win statewide this year?

22 August
The Senate looks like a jump ball. Here are the 10 seats that will decide the majority
(NPR) Four months ago — the last time we wrote about the top 10 seats most likely to change hands — Republicans were growing confident they would win the chamber.
But a lot has changed in that time.
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has boosted Democratic enthusiasm (and fundraising); a handful of hardline or untested Republican challengers won their primaries; and the Jan. 6 committee hearings and the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home have put him front and center yet again, threatening to make the election a choice rather than a referendum on President Biden and Democratic governance.
Pennsylvania (Previous: 1)
Georgia (Previous: 2)
Arizona (Previous: 5)
Nevada (Previous: 3)
Wisconsin (Previous: 4)
New Hampshire (Previous: 6)
North Carolina (Previous: 7)
Ohio (Previous: 8)
Florida (Previous: 9)
Colorado (Previous: 10)

9 August
With Deal in Hand, Democrats Enter the Fall Armed With Something New: Hope
(NYT) Vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire are holding events promoting the landmark legislation they passed over the weekend. Democratic ad makers are busily preparing a barrage of commercials about it across key battlegrounds. And the White House is set to deploy Cabinet members on a nationwide sales pitch.
The sweeping legislation, covering climate change and prescription drug prices, which came together in the Senate after more than a year of painfully public fits and starts, has kicked off a frenetic 91-day sprint to sell the package by November — and win over an electorate that has grown skeptical of Democratic rule. …the deal on the broad new legislation, along with signs of a brewing voter revolt over abortion rights, has some Democrats experiencing a flicker of an unfamiliar feeling: hope.

5 August
The Super-High-Stakes 2022 Race No One Is Talking About
By Gabriel Debenedetti
(New York) Charlie Crist’s pitch is easy to understand. The first thing to know is that Ron DeSantis, widely thought to be Donald Trump’s heir to the GOP throne, won Florida’s governorship by less than half a percentage point in 2018. The second is that what happens in Florida matters everywhere, since it’s the crown jewel of battleground states in presidential elections. The third is that Crist — a current Democratic representative and former Republican governor — has the name recognition and goodwill to make it a race. And that’s why, less than ten seconds into his appearance before an almost entirely masked audience of about six dozen parishioners at St. John Missionary Baptist Church in Boynton Beach, 13 miles down the coast from Mar-a-Lago on the last Sunday in July, he described his mission in straightforward terms: “I am running for governor to defeat Ron DeSantis.”

2 August
Abortion rights shockwave rocks the midterms and 3 other takeaways from primaries
(NPR) Tuesday was the biggest primary day left on the 2022 midterm calendar — and there were some telling results that could have implications for this fall, from the state of abortion rights in this country to the risks to Republicans and Democrats posed by former President Donald Trump’s influence.
1. Abortion rights supporters get a major boost. It was a double-digit result on the side of abortion rights supporters. Even a close result in ruby red Kansas was going to be seen as an indicator of where the energy is when it comes to abortion. It’s fired up those who are outraged at the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and could help Democrats blunt expected GOP gains in the House and potentially hold the Senate.
2. Trump shows his strength in GOP primaries – again. Trump got some key wins, especially in the GOP election denial beehive that is Arizona and against a Michigan Republican who voted to impeach him after Jan. 6.
3. But Trump and MAGA candidates are going to be tested this fall. Can Trump candidates peddling his election lies and who hold hard-line policy positions win in general elections in swing states? Some of last night’s wins for Trump are shifting the landscape in Democrats’ favor.
4. Democrats potentially face a more powerful Trump if he becomes president. If they do win, though, and Trump runs and wins the presidency again, he will control more levers at the state level, including elections officials in swing states, than he did when he first took office in 2017 or when he left in 2021.
Five states hold primaries in big tests for Trump
(Axios) The success or failure of Trump-backed candidates — in both primaries and the general election — is an important barometer of his long-term grip on the party.
Arizona Republicans are poised to nominate a roster of MAGA-aligned candidates.
Primaries in Mich., Mo., and Ariz. present a fresh test of Trump’s influence
(WaPo) The former president has endorsed 24 candidates, many of whom have repeated his election falsehoods, including in key races in Arizona and Michigan. GOP voters will also decide the fate of three of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, in races in Michigan and Washington state.

30 July
G.O.P. Feuding and Chaos Endanger the Party’s Chances in Michigan
The down-ballot G.O.P. primaries in Michigan are emblematic of skirmishes across the country, where Trump-inspired insurgents are vying to wrest control from Republican power brokers who have long controlled purse strings and nominations.

17 July
Maryland Dems eager to break GOP’s hold on governor’s office
(AP) — One of the best opportunities for Democrats to regain a governor’s office this year is in Maryland, and the race to succeed term-limited Republican Larry Hogan has drawn a crowd of candidates. Winning back the seat shouldn’t seem so tough for Democrats in a state where they outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 ratio, but the GOP has won three of the past five elections.
Nationwide, Republicans hold a 28-22 edge in governor’s seats. Of the 36 governor’s races this year, Maryland and Massachusetts represent the best chances for Democrats to narrow the gap.
‘Nobody is coming to save us’: Florida Dems struggle ahead of August primary
Various Democrats said during the three-day “Leadership Blue” conference that they see openings that can be used to overcome Republican advantages.
… Privately, however, there was a sense of fatalism among state Democrats, who are heading into the 2022 midterms with an unpopular president, the highest inflation in 40 years and incumbents such as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis raking in millions and seeming unstoppable.
Adding to their problems is a dearth of national donor groups that have limited how much they’re willing to give to candidates after Democrats have suffered multiple defeats in recent election cycles.
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is running in the Democratic primary for governor, flatly said in an interview that Democrats will be cut off from national donors if her rival Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) wins the primary. Crist — who served one term as governor while he was a Republican — narrowly lost to then-Gov. Rick Scott in 2014. Most polls show Crist beating Fried ahead of the Aug. 23 primary.

14 June
Trump tests his clout in slate of primaries
Rep. Tom Rice’s challenger is teetering on the edge of a primary win after Rice voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
(Politico Nightly) Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement is on the line in more primaries Tuesday night that will shape the future of Congress, continuing his drive to punish even partial opposition inside the GOP, while a challenge from the left is hitting a different Democratic-controlled swing seat.
Trump has endorsed a pair of primary challengers in South Carolina against GOP Reps. Nancy Mace, an occasional critic of Trump, and Tom Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president. Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry is teetering on the edge of unseating Rice in the GOP primary.

8 June
6 takeaways from primaries in California, Mississippi and other states
The United States held its biggest primary night of 2022 — by volume, at least — on Tuesday, with voters in seven states nominating candidates for November: California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. …here are some early takeaways from the races we know about so far.
1. Voters in blue cities send a message on crime — again
2. Jan. 6 commission suddenly an issue?
3. More incumbent trouble
4. The Trump update- Virtually every primary night has allowed us to glean some clues about Trump’s hold over the GOP and status as a kingmaker — with a decidedly mixed verdict thus far.
5. Effort to thwart Medicaid expansion fails in S.D. (see In South Dakota, the GOP war on democracy hits a wall)
6. A rare father-son duo in New Jersey – Come January, it appears New Jersey will be sending two Robert Menendezes (Bobs Menendez?) to Congress. That’s after the senator’s son, Robert Menendez Jr., easily won a primary in the 8th Congressional District.

7 June
US elections: How pro-Israel spending affects Palestine advocacy
Despite massive AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries, advocates say debate over US support for Israel not going away.
With the largest pro-Israel lobby group in the United States getting directly involved in electoral politics for the first time, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is leading a push to influence Democratic congressional primaries across the country.

1 June
‘It’s going to be an army’: Tapes reveal GOP plan to contest elections
Placing operatives as poll workers and building a “hotline” to friendly attorneys are among the strategies to be deployed in Michigan and other swing states.
The plan, as outlined by a Republican National Committee staffer in Michigan, includes utilizing rules designed to provide political balance among poll workers to install party-trained volunteers prepared to challenge voters at Democratic-majority polling places, developing a website to connect those workers to local lawyers and establishing a network of party-friendly district attorneys who could intervene to block vote counts at certain precincts.

25 May
3 Questions About Tuesday’s Big Elections
Will Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” candidates accept defeat? Can Democrats find reasons for hope? And for other Republicans, what’s the price of Trump’s cold shoulder?
In Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, we’ll get more tests of Trump’s endorsement sway, with two Senate seats and three governor’s mansions up for grabs in November. As our colleague Azi Paybarah notes, Trump has taken some “noteworthy losses” thus far this year.
In Texas, which is holding runoff elections today, we’ll learn if Democrats in Laredo want to re-elect their anti-abortion congressman for a 10th term, or if they are looking for progressive change in the Rio Grande Valley. And we’ll find out if the state’s scandal-ridden attorney general can defeat the scion of a fading political dynasty. In what may be the final test of the waning influence of the Bush family in the Republican Party, George P. Bush is fighting an uphill battle to unseat Ken Paxton, the Trump-endorsed, criminally indicted and ultraconservative incumbent.
UPDATE : Texas Primary Runoff Election Results
Live Updates: Kemp Routs Perdue as Georgians Reject Trump’s Meddling
In a landslide victory that represented a resounding rebuke of Donald J. Trump, Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia won the Republican nomination for a second term on Tuesday, turning back a Trump-fueled primary challenge and delivering the former president his biggest electoral setback of the 2022 primaries. Stacey Abrams won her primary, and Senator Raphael Warnock will face Herschel Walker in November.

20 May
The Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary is almost certainly headed for a recount after the Associated Press said on Friday that it could not project a winner because the margins were too tight.
(WaPo) Television personality and heart surgeon Mehmet Oz, endorsed by former president Donald Trump, led former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 1,079 votes with 98 percent of precincts reporting, probably triggering an automatic recount because the margin is less than a half-percent of the votes.
Unless McCormick concedes by noon on Wednesday, the Pennsylvania State Department will officially order a recount that must begin no later than June 1 and be completed by noon on June 7, with the results probably released the next day.

18 May
Trump Brings His Big Lie Playbook to the G.O.P. Primaries
John Cassidy
(The New Yorker) Tuesday was a mixed bag for candidates endorsed by the former President, who is making fresh suggestions of election fraud.
… In the G.O.P. Senate primary in North Carolina, the three-term congressman Ted Budd, whom Trump endorsed, won easily. So did Doug Mastriano, a far-right state senator who scored a last-minute endorsement from Trump in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary, and who made 2020 election denialism a core part of his candidacy. But Trump also backed some losers, including Madison Cawthorn, the controversial and soon-to-be former congressman from North Carolina.
Trump’s endorsement boosted Oz this Tuesday (just as it aided J. D. Vance in Ohio a couple of weeks ago), upending a race in which some of his own former flunkies, such as Hope Hicks, were already working for McCormick. With Trump’s help, a formerly pro-choice Muslim-American doctor who owes his career to the Democrat Oprah Winfrey and lives in a mansion on the Hudson, appears to have gained the support of a plurality, or a near plurality of Pennsylvanian G.O.P. voters. It’s hard to imagine this happening absent Trump’s endorsement.

3 May
Ohio
J.D. Vance, the “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist, won the Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat after an endorsement from former President Donald J. Trump. In November, Mr. Vance will face Tim Ryan, who won the Democratic nomination. In the state’s House primaries, notable victors included Max Miller, a former White House aide to Mr. Trump who won a G.O.P. race for a newly drawn district; Representative Shontel Brown, a Democrat who won a rematch against a progressive activist, Nina Turner; and J.R. Majewski, a Republican who has expressed fringe views on the QAnon conspiracy theory and the Capitol riot. Mr. Majewski will face Representative Marcy Kaptur, a longtime incumbent Democrat, in November.
7 ways Tuesday’s primaries could shake the 2022 election
Voters in Ohio and Indiana will nominate candidates in a key Senate race and more.
(Politico) …it’s been hard to keep all the characters — and drama — straight as the crowded, ugly race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has raged for more than a year, filled with brutal attack ads, personal sniping, wild swings in the polls and even a near-physical confrontation between two of the candidates.
But it isn’t the only marquee contest on the ballot. Ohio’s Republican governor is also trying to beat back challengers on his right flank, and there’s the possibility of significant upheaval at the congressional level after a messy redistricting process.
Meanwhile, in Indiana, Republicans are picking congressional nominees in two big races that reveal the party’s post-Trump cleavages: One will face a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and the other will be poised to win a safe seat held by a retiring GOP member.

1 March
Texas
Gov. Greg Abbott easily defeated two vocal primary opponents, and Beto O’Rourke, the former El Paso congressman and former presidential candidate, won the Democratic nomination. Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued and Trump-endorsed attorney general, was forced into a May runoff with George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner. Democratic congressional primaries will also go to runoffs in the 15th District — an open seat where the parties are pretty evenly matched — and in the 28th District, where Representative Henry Cuellar faces a progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros, who narrowly lost to him in 2020.

21 February
Trump’s Risky 2022 Endorsement Strategy
(New York) Former president Donald Trump really likes to endorse candidates for office, in keeping with his general determination to share his views on every imaginable subject. … Trump’s aggressive endorsement program, which often targets GOP incumbents with whom he has issues (typically stemming from a refusal to cooperate with his attempted 2020 election coup), has not gone over well with Republicans focused on party unity and general-election viability, as Politico reported recently.

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