U.S. primaries and mid-term elections 2022

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Midterm Early Voting Statistics

Inside the frantic final days of the Georgia Senate race
Much of the media coverage appears to suggest Warnock has the momentum in the final days. Why is that and how did that happen?
Warnock has had a slight lead in nearly all of the public polling during the runoff. He has certainly spent more money — and had more money to spend — on paid media. And most worrying to Republicans is the fact that the major turnout Georgia saw in early runoff voting gives Warnock a significant head start. There’s rain in the forecast across much of Georgia on Tuesday, the day the GOP needs voters to show up in force.

2 December
In Georgia runoff, GOP worries about Walker, Trump and party’s future
Republicans have grown increasingly nervous about an election that reflects larger concerns
By Sabrina Rodrigue, Hannah Knowles and Dylan Wells
Polls show a close race in the runoff, which was triggered because no candidate received a majority of the vote in the Nov. 8 election. A CNN survey released Friday showed Warnock, senior pastor at Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church who won his seat last year, with a narrow edge over Walker, a first-time candidate known for his career as a football star.

24 November
Arizona becomes epicenter of GOP challenges to 2022 election
(The Hill) On Tuesday, Republican attorney general candidate Abe Hamadeh took the latest step by filing a lawsuit challenging the results of his race, in which his Democratic rival leads by 510 votes out of more than 2.5 million ballots ahead of an expected recount.
Kari Lake, a Trump ally who lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs in Arizona’s gubernatorial race earlier this month, refused to concede and called for an election redo. Trump himself took things further by claiming without evidence that officials deliberately “took the election away” from Lake.
“Whether done accidentally or intentionally, it is clear that this election was a debacle that destroyed any trust in our elections,” Lake said on Monday.
But the sentiment isn’t shared by all Republicans in the state. Gov. Doug Ducey (R), who drew Trump’s ire after refusing to overturn the 2020 election results, on Wednesday broke with Lake and publicly congratulated Hobbs on her victory.
18 November
Reported Kari Lake adviser Steve Bannon: “Don’t think that Kari Lake is not going to fight this one down to the bitter end”

23 November
Lisa Murkowski and Mary Peltola win Alaska races, defeating Trump-backed opponents
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola on Wednesday became the first Alaska Native to win a full term in Congress, securing reelection along with Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who both defeated challengers endorsed by former president Donald Trump after state officials finished a final round of vote-counting. … the centrist lawmakers’ victories were not clinched until Wednesday, when the Alaska Division of Elections redistributed votes under the state’s new ranked-choice voting system.
Peltola and Murkowski had crossed party lines to endorse each other ahead of the election, forming an alliance rooted in the similar space they occupy on the political spectrum.
Sarah Palin Just Lost a 50-Year GOP Seat to Alaska’s First Native Rep

17-20 November
America’s frozen midterms
Flipped congressional districts, by winning party (see map)
(Axios) For all the national turmoil, America’s midterms were played on a remarkably narrow terrain, with only 26 House seats (6% of the races) flipping from one party to the other.
Why it matters: We’re a closely divided country, and neither party was able to move the needle much despite the external turmoil.
Nearly half (7 of 18) of GOP pickups were almost automatic because of redistricting.
Four of the 18 seats Republicans flipped were in New York.
Four of the 8 seats Dems flipped were almost entirely because Republicans nominated MAGA, Trump-aligned candidates.
Democrat concedes to GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert in tight Colorado House race
Although there will be an automatic recount done by the Colorado secretary of state’s office, Frisch said in a live Facebook speech that he did not ask for a recount, does not expect the results to change and does not want there to be fundraising done for an essentially fruitless cause.
Republican Boebert’s tight race likely headed to recount
The Associated Press has declared the election in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District too close to call. AP will await the results of a potential recount to call the race. With nearly all votes counted, the incumbent Boebert leads Democrat Adam Frisch by 0.16 percentage points, or 551 votes out of nearly 327,000 votes counted.
A margin that small qualifies for an automatic recount under Colorado law, in a race that has garnered national attention as Republicans try to bolster their advantage in the U.S. House after clinching a narrow majority Wednesday night.
More than a week after Election Day, Republicans have won control of the House, giving conservatives leverage to blunt President Joe Biden’s agenda and spur a flurry of investigations. But a threadbare majority will pose immediate challenges for GOP leaders and complicate the party’s ability to govern.
Why AP has called control of the US House for Republicans
Republicans won control of the U.S. House on Wednesday after The Associated Press declared Mike Garcia the winner of a race in California, securing the party the requisite 218th seat for the majority in the chamber.
The release of thousands of votes in California’s 27th District allowed the AP to determine that not enough votes were outstanding for Democratic challenger Christy Smith to overtake Garcia.
The party that controls the House is able to elect a new speaker. Taking power on Jan. 3, the GOP caucus will elect a new speaker, run every committee and decide what bills come to the House floor.
House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy has already unveiled his “Commitment to America,” a broad outline of economic, border security and other policies that the GOP would propose in the early days of the next Congress.
McCarthy won the nomination for House speaker on Tuesday, with a formal vote in January.
Young U.S. voters reduced the ‘Red Wave’ to a ‘Pink Splash’ in the midterm elections — why didn’t polls predict it?
Julia Rodgers, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Dalhousie University
(The Conversation) Youth voters have been hailed as the catalyst that turned the Red Wave into a “Pink Splash.” Twenty-seven per cent of voters aged 18-29 cast a ballot — the second highest youth voter turnout in nearly 30 years. Further still, roughly 63 per cent of youth voters backed Democratic candidates — the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:
By 2024, Millennials & Gen Z voters will outnumber voters who are Baby Boomers and older, 45/25.
We are beginning to see the political impacts of that generational shift.

16 November
Why the AP hasn’t called control of the House yet
It’s simple: Neither party has yet reached the required 218 seats.
A week after polls closed, the AP had called 217 seats in the House for Republicans — one seat short of the needed 218 — to 209 for Democrats, who have held the House since 2018.
Republicans have been inching closer to seizing the House since voting closed Nov. 8 but weren’t there yet. California alone has seven races remain to be called, and vote counting continues elsewhere.
After a review of vote count updates in several counties in California and Colorado, the AP concluded it was not possible to call another U.S. House race for a Republican candidate Tuesday night without more votes being released.

15 November
Native Americans support Democrats over Republicans across House and Senate races
Drawing from new survey data, Gabriel R. Sanchez and Raymond Foxworth shed light on the voting patterns of Native Americans during the 2022 midterm elections and explain why both political parties should be paying close attention to this important slice of the electorate
(Brookings) The large and growing urban-Indian population has a unique set of priorities and challenges compared to their more rural community members who may live on or adjacent to their tribal lands. Twenty-four percent of Native American voters in the sample live in urban areas, with Native Americans who live in these areas being 14% more likely to support Democratic candidates.
One of the themes from 2018 regarding the Native Americans electorate was the investment in mobilizing Native American voters. The survey from 2022 reveals that Native Americans were less likely to be contacted by a candidate, party, or civic organization than other communities of color. … without higher investment in tribal communities, we will not see this sub-group of the larger electorate turn out and engage in federal elections at high rates. Native American voters who were contacted were also less likely than all other racial and ethnic groups to report their received outreach from the Democratic party.

14 November
Heather Cox Richardson November 14, 2022
The contours of last Tuesday’s midterm election continue to come into focus. They are good, indeed, for the Democrats and Democratic president Joe Biden. Foremost is that the Democrats have not lost a Senate seat and could well pick one up after the December 6 runoff election between Georgia senator Rafael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.
Those results are strong. According to Axios senior political correspondent Josh Kraushaar, only in 1934, under Democratic president Franklin D. Roosevelt; 1962, under Democratic president John F. Kennedy; and 2002, under Republican president George W. Bush and just after the 9/11 attacks, has a president’s party not lost a Senate seat in the midterms and lost fewer than 10 House seats. Since World War II, midterms have cost the party in power an average of 28 seats.
Democrats also did well in state governments, picking up some state governorships—including Arizona’s tonight, as Democrat Katie Hobbs is projected to have beaten Trump-backed Republican election-denier Kari Lake [Democrat Katie Hobbs Defeats Trump-Endorsed Kari Lake in Arizona Governor’s Race] —and taking control in some legislative chambers, although again, it’s not clear yet how many. They also denied the Republicans veto-proof supermajorities in others.
Who Has the Edge in Georgia’s Suddenly Less Momentous Senate Runoff?
By Ed Kilgore
(New York) Had Democrats not won the very close Senate races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, Georgia’s December 6 runoff between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker would have represented the second straight overtime match in the Peach State that decided control of the upper chamber.
Instead, the runoff will decide whether Democrats will hang onto 50 Senate seats and run the chamber via Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, as they have the last two years, or will gain the breathing room of a single vote that might modestly reduce the power of centrist heretics Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
What is entirely unclear at this early point is which of the two runoff candidates benefits from the suddenly nonexistential stakes of the overtime contest.

13 November
After a Senate Loss in Wisconsin, Democrats Turn on Each Other
Some on the party’s left blame Chuck Schumer and the Democratic establishment for Mandela Barnes’ loss to Ron Johnson
Election deniers lose key state races
Voters reject them in 6 major battlegrounds, rebuffing their attempts to control the election process
The candidates could have gained power over election administration. Voters rejected them in the six most pivotal states

Heather Cox Richardson: November 12, 2022
(Letters from an American) A little before 9:30 p.m. Eastern time, NBC called Nevada’s tight Senate race for the incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Cortez Masto defeated Adam Laxalt, a former attorney general for the state, whom former president Trump had endorsed.
This means that the Democrats keep control of the Senate.
Democrats will have 50 votes in the new Congress just as they did in the current one, enabling Vice President Kamala Harris to break ties in their favor.
Harris may not need to break ties, though, if the last Senate seat goes to the Democrats. That last seat is the one outstanding seat from Georgia. In the election there, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock garnered about 35,000 more votes than Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker, but neither man won 50% of the vote. Under Georgia law, this forces a runoff, which will be held on December 6. Walker is a deeply flawed candidate, and now that his election cannot give the Republicans control of the Senate, it is not clear that voters will turn out for him.
Midterms Live Updates: Democrats Keep Control of Senate With Victory in Nevada
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly defeated her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, giving the Democrats 50 seats even before the Georgia runoff on Dec. 6.

9 November
Midterms Live Updates: Biden Says Red Wave ‘Didn’t Happen,’ Re-election Decision Will Come Next Year
Control of the House and the Senate remain up in the air as President Biden struck an optimistic tone at the White House. Georgia’s Senate race will head to a runoff, while races in Arizona and Nevada have yet to be called.
Election Denial Didn’t Play as Well as Republicans Hoped
Democrats won races for top election posts in several political battlegrounds where their Republican rivals had cast doubt on the 2020 contest and signaled their desire to overhaul voting systems.
Midterms Updates: No Signs of ‘Red Wave’ as Race for Congress Remains Tight
Control of Congress hung in the balance early Wednesday morning, with Democrats and Republicans closely monitoring yet-to-be-called Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, as well as a tight contest in Georgia that may be headed for a December runoff.
As the counting moved into Wednesday morning, it was fairly clear that Democrats had defied predictions of a midterm electoral drubbing, winning dozens of key House, Senate and governors’ races across the country and forestalling a “red wave” that Republicans said would define one of the most consequential midterm campaigns in recent memory.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, beat Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, flipping a Senate seat. J.D. Vance won for Republicans in Ohio. But control of the House and Senate still hangs in the balance.
After her historic win, Hochul must govern over a fractured New York electorate.
Nearly 15 months after she unexpectedly became New York’s first female governor, she was about to be the first woman in the state to be elected to the position. But her victory on Tuesday proved harder to secure than most had expected.
The Atlantic Daily November 9: Some observers ridiculed Joe Biden for making a closing pitch for democracy, but as it turns out, Americans do care about more than the price of gas. Voters concerned about democracy and their rights defied predictions of a red wave and sharply limited Republican gains.
Let’s get the bad news out of the way: In yesterday’s midterm elections, a fair number of odious candidates managed to buy tickets to Washington. Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson is going back to the Senate, where he will be joined by Ohio’s would-be hillbilly whisperer J. D. Vance, whose campaign will stand for years to come as a monument to cynicism and hypocrisy. We don’t know yet if Kari Lake—or as my friend Tim Miller calls her, the “Empress of Trollistan”—will become governor of Arizona. And we still don’t know who will control Congress.
Democrats win governors’ races in three crucial ‘blue wall’ states
(Reuters) – Democrats won elections for governor in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Tuesday, enabling them to defend against Republican-dominated state legislatures on issues such as abortion rights and fair elections.
Democratic governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Tony Evers of Wisconsin were re-elected, while Josh Shapiro succeeded an outgoing Democratic governor in Pennsylvania, according to projections from Edison Research.
Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is trailing in a race that’s coming down to the wire
Boebert has been one of the loudest Republican voices amplifying former President Trump’s baseless claims of widespread election fraud, as well as supporting QAnon conspiracy theories. On Election Day, she was one of many Republicans predicting a “red wave” of GOP wins. But late on election night, Boebert prayed with her supporters and said she’s hoping to get a boost from in-person voting.
Counting all of the votes in Nevada could take days, election officials say.
Overwhelmed election officials in Nevada say that they have been flooded by thousands of mail-in ballots, and that it may take several days to count the votes and upload results.
8 November
Democrat Wes Moore elected governor in historic Maryland race
…the state’s first Black governor. …only the third Black governor elected in the country. Moore’s win puts the governorship back in Democrats’ hands after two terms of Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, one of the country’s most popular governors.
Republican Ron DeSantis wins reelection as Florida’s Governor
DeSantis’s victory over Democrat Charlie Crist gives him a second term and a national platform as he eyes a potential run for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.
Despite torrent of misinformation, voting unfolds relatively smoothly
(WaPo) Polls opened across the country Tuesday with no reports of major issues in the first nationwide election since former president Donald Trump undermined confidence in the U.S. democratic process with baseless claims of widespread fraud. But voters faced a torrent of misinformation, including misleading videos and viral tweets, suggesting outcomes could be suspect. With control of Congress at stake, Republicans are confident that they will pick up the five seats they need to flip control of the House, while a handful of fiercely fought Senate races will determine which party controls that now evenly divided chamber.
The Final 2022 Midterms Polling Forecast
By Ed Kilgore
For months, some have predicted a Republican wave based on inflation or rising crime, or simply the usual backlash against the party controlling the White House. Others say expected GOP gains could be mitigated by a Democratic counter-wave based on unhappiness with the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade and fear of MAGA extremism.
Pennsylvania: Fetterman and Oz are in a dead heat.
Georgia: Walker vs. Warnock could go to overtime.
Arizona: Kelly vs. Masters is a MAGA-movement bellwether.
New Hampshire: The key to Senate control?
Nevada: Cortez Masto and Laxalt’s geographical puzzle.

Our columnists made their midterm picks. Can you beat their predictions?
(WaPo) In a very-extra-special edition of the Post Pundit Power Ranking, we want you, the readers, to play pundit and tell us who you predict to win this cycle’s biggest midterm battles.
Senate races? Got ’em. Governorships? They’re here. House control? Duh!
For each contest below, click on the candidate you think will be victorious. Once you choose, you’ll also see who other readers and our political columnists think will win, and why.

On TikTok, Election Misinformation Thrives Ahead of Midterms
The fast-growing platform’s poor track record during recent voting abroad does not bode well for elections in the U.S., researchers said.
What are the US midterm elections and who’s running?
by David Smith, The Guardian
Up for grabs are:
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
Thirty-five seats in the 100-member Senate. This is made up of the standard 34 seats plus a special election to fill the four years remaining in the term of retiring senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma.
Thirty-six state governorships, and three US territory governorships.
Numerous city mayorships and local officials.
One hundred and twenty-nine ballot measures in 36 states including laws on abortion in California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont.

US voters fret about democracy, polarization before election
(AP) American voters are fractured politically and culturally ahead of Election Day, and they are anxious about where their country is heading — on inflation, abortion, immigration, crime, and much more.
They also sense something more fundamental at stake at a time of rising mistrust of institutions and each other: the future of democracy.
Some Americans remain hopeful, but a fretful outlook emerges from interviews with more than two dozen Democratic, Republican and unaffiliated voters before Tuesday’s midterm elections — the first since followers of former President Donald Trump tried to halt the certification of President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.

1-3 November
Threats to US election security grow more complex
(AP) — Top U.S. election security officials say protecting the nation’s voting systems has become increasingly challenging.
That’s due mostly to the embrace by millions of Americans of unfounded conspiracy theories and false claims about widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential race.
… the director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Jen Easterly, and other officials say they have no evidence that election infrastructure has been altered by hostile actors to prevent voting or vote counting, compromise ballots or affect voter registration accuracy.
But they’re not lowering their guard. Disinformation is rampant. Foreign rivals are capable of potent cyber mischief. And the insider threat is considered greater than ever.
Obama says democracy ‘may not survive’ if Arizona Republicans win
Because victory for the GOP ticket, the former president proclaimed to a crowd of more than 1,000 in a high school gymnasium in southern Phoenix, would mean “election deniers serving as your governor, as your senator, as your secretary of state, as your attorney general.”
The ‘dire situation’ confronting House Democrats
Democrats are on their heels in the House. They are being forced to pump money into districts that President Joe Biden carried handily two years ago — in other words, seats that should be fairly safe in a typical election year. Redistricting has imperiled some incumbents. And there aren’t many opportunities where the party can hope for a pickup of a Republican-held seat. Still, there are signs that a full-blown red wave may not be in the cards.
In our latest preview, Nightly spoke with Scott Bland, POLITICO’s national politics editor, about the state of play in the House. This conversation has been edited.
A consensus seems to be gelling around the idea that Republicans will win back control of the House, but Democrats have a shot at retaining their Senate majority. Is there a case to be made that Democrats might still keep the House? Or do most Democrats concede that the House is a lost cause?
That is what most Democrats are saying. I’m sure there are bank-shot scenarios that it would be unwise to completely, totally discount, because we all know how unpredictable elections can be. But you can see what a dire situation House Democrats are in by looking at where the last-minute money is flowing — into very Democratic-leaning districts that were once seen as safe.
Republicans have 213 seats rated “lean Republican” or better in our colleague Steve Shepard’s Election Forecast. Another 27 are toss-ups and another 23 are “lean Democratic” right now, so that gives you a pretty good sense of the outside lines for gains.
The House Likely Republican
Steve Shepard, Chief POLITICO election reporter
The GOP is effectively only four seats away from the majority: Republicans currently hold 212 seats, and there are two vacancies in seats where GOP candidates are favored to win in November. That leaves the party just shy of the 218 seats needed to flip the House, a feat they could accomplish even without the kind of broad electoral mandate once seen as likely.

No, Stacey Abrams Is Not a ‘Superstar Loser’
By Ed Kilgore
In response to to Jacob Stern’s piece in The Atlantic chiding Democrats for “falling for” candidates he calls “superstar losers,” like Beto O’Rourke, Amy McGrath, Jaime Harrison, and … Stacey Abrams.
To be very clear, Abrams isn’t a recycled loser who would have been forgotten in Georgia without her national fame and fundraising power. In narrowly losing in 2018, she was the most successful Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate of this century — and the first woman and first Black person to win a gubernatorial nomination in Georgia — and built both the financial and strategic infrastructure for the Democratic Party that carried the state for Joe Biden and flipped two Senate seats, giving Democrats their trifecta in Washington. Who else are you going to run for governor in 2022?

1 November
Biden rallies Florida Democrats despite signs of red wave
Charlie Crist insists Biden’s visit isn’t coming too late, contending the “great unknown” in this year’s election is the women’s vote, especially in the wake of the Supreme Court decision to repeal Roe v. Wade.
What is the Senate race that looks the closest right now?
(Politico) Nevada, based on a series of public polls, appears to be the closest. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt are truly locked in a dead-heat. We see the term “margin-of-error race” used for a number of contests right now, but Nevada seems to be legitimately tied. That being said, Georgia is close. Pennsylvania is close. Arizona has become close. And then there are several races where election forecasters seem fairly confident about the outcome (Republicans winning in Ohio, North Carolina and perhaps to a lesser extent Wisconsin; Democrats favored to win in Colorado, Washington and to a lesser extent New Hampshire), but where the polls still show races within just a few points. Election Day is near!

The pivotal question in the 2022 Senate battle
Analysis by Aaron Blake
(WaPo) Running far ahead of the president’s approval ratings may be even more difficult to do these days, as our country has become more polarized. One thing you’ll notice if you peruse Guild’s data is that these over-performances have generally declined in midterms since 2006, though they ticked up in 2014.
The question from there is whether this year’s dynamics are right to make it happen again. Some of the biggest overperformances came when Republicans ran flawed candidates — most especially, the two 2012 races featuring GOP nominees Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock.
There is some evidence that could be the case in 2022. While their candidates perhaps don’t have the same kind of comments dragging them down as Akin and Mourdock did, polls have almost always shown voters don’t especially like the GOP nominees in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. (See 4 charts that show the GOP’s 2022 popularity gap)
The Latest Threat to Elections: Local Officials Going Rogue
(Bloomberg CityLab) County and city leaders could fuel uncertainty or even violence around the November midterms, especially if control of the evenly divided US Senate comes down to a close race.
Mehmet Oz’s medical research was rejected in 2003, resulting in 2-year ban
Oz has made his career in medicine a central feature of his campaign in a race that could determine which party controls the Senate. Medical experts and the campaign of his Democratic opponent, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, have hammered Oz over fringe ideas and unsupported health recommendations made on his popular television show, “The Dr. Oz Show,” over 13 seasons.

31 October
Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the final week of campaigning before the midterms
(PBS) If Democrats lose the House next week, it won’t necessarily be because their members of Congress lost their seats.
It will primarily be because they lost competitive races in open seats. That is: races in districts where there is no incumbent, and each party — not just the challenger — has to start from scratch.
[An Achilles’ Heel for House Democrats: The Open Seat – A rash of retirements has made a tough campaign even tougher.]
Gerrymandering has whittled down the number of truly competitive seats this year to just 59 out of 435 total, according to the Cook Political Report’s latest ratings. And of those, 19 are either open seats or new seats formed by the most recent redistricting cycle. Remember: Republicans need to pick up only five seats to retake the House.
Tamara: I think what happened over the summer is, because Republicans had these very competitive primaries, in some cases, very contentious primaries, Democrats did not, Democrats spent a lot of money over the summer, building a narrative, building their name I.D.
Now, polls coming out today from The New York Times show that it actually has paid off. They have distanced themselves from the president. So his approval rating is much lower than theirs in the states. And they still, if you just look at The New York Times polls, these Democrats have higher favorable ratings than the Republican opponents.
What Democrats are hoping is that, at the end of the day, voters are going to say, we’re not happy with the president, but we don’t like this Republican.
A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.
Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.
Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.

The Michigan race testing the limits of a GOP wave
John Gibbs is one of several Republican House hopefuls facing a formidable obstacle: their own past statements.

These Cooks, Waiters and Casino Workers Could Swing the Senate
Hospitality workers enjoy unusual clout in Nevada, where the powerful Las Vegas culinary union is rallying members to tip close races.

Pelosi attack shocks country on edge about democracy threats
(AP) The ambush was a particularly savage reminder of the extremism that has coursed through American politics in recent years, adding to a sense of foreboding with the Nov. 8 election nearly at hand.
Armed watchers are staking out ballot drop boxes in Arizona to guard against false conspiracies about voter fraud. Threats against members of Congress have risen to historic levels. Public opinion surveys show fears for a fragile democracy and even of a civil war.

Former President Barack Obama made his case for the Michigan Democratic ticket in front of a packed gymnasium in Detroit on Saturday as races across the state come down to the wire.
Obama made a stop at Detroit’s Renaissance High School on a limited national tour to support Democrats in key battleground states; Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia.

27 October
Why the Latino vote will surprise us for the next 20 years
By Roberto Suro, professor of journalism and public policy at the University of Southern California.
(WaPo) …veterans of ancient battles for Latino empowerment failed to see how today’s Latinos, especially the young, are redefining identity politics in ways that will become evident in the midterm election results.
Many advocates and analysts still peddle the “sleeping giant” view of Latinos as an ever-growing bloc. Others portray them as “swing voters,” up for grabs on a national scale. Both views understate the proliferation of Latino political aspirations.
Hispanic eligible voters jumped from 14.3 million in 2000 to 34.5 million this year. Geographic dispersal and economic segmentation accompanied that growth. The resulting differences go far beyond disparities based on national origins — Cubans vs. Mexicans, for example — and the like. The new Latino polity is thoroughly Made in the USA.
Local conditions and national trends influence Latino voters as much as anyone else. Though Democrats have drawn a clear majority for decades, recent elections give Republicans hope they can change that dynamic. And even bigger changes are coming.
In the early 2000s, the engine of Latino growth shifted from immigrant arrivals to native births. This new generation is now starting to run for office and to vote, with notable effects on both parties.

The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls
Swing-district polls by The New York Times and Siena College show how the midterm races are being shaped by larger, surprising forces, beyond the traditional red and blue divide.
President Biden is unpopular everywhere. Economic concerns are mounting. Abortion rights are popular but social issues are more often secondary.
A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.
Democrats continue to show resilience in places where abortion is still high on the minds of voters, and where popular incumbents are on the ballot. Indeed, the Democrats were still tied or ahead in all four districts — three of which were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020. But the party’s slim majority — control could flip if just five seats change hands — demands that it essentially run the table everywhere, at a moment when the economy has emerged as the driving issue in all but the country’s wealthier enclaves.
Election Day is Nov. 8, but legal challenges already begin
(AP) More than 100 lawsuits have been filed this year around the Nov. 8 elections. The legal challenges, largely by Republicans, target rules for mail-in voting, early voting, voter access, voting machines, voting registration, the counting of mismarked absentee ballots and access for partisan poll watchers.
The cases likely preview a potentially contentious post-election period and the strategy stems partly from the failure of Donald Trump and his allies to prevail in overturning the free and fair results of the 2020 presidential election that he lost to Joe Biden.
The current effort, however, is more formalized, well-funded and well-organized and is run by the Republican National Committee and other legal allies with strong credentials. Party officials say they are preparing for recounts, contested elections and more litigation. Thousands of volunteers are ready to challenge ballots and search for evidence of malfeasance.

24 October
Hurting Democracy Won’t Help the Economy
The coalition to protect American democracy has failed to present a narrative of what life would look like—politically and economically—if this Republican Party returns to power.
By Tom Nichols
(The Atlantic) The races in the midterm are tightening up, but everyone who cares about democracy should resist the urge to turn the election into a referendum on inflation.
Last summer, it seemed like the Republicans were going to face a reversal of political gravity, and the Democrats would keep their majority during a first midterm election under a Democratic president. Historically, this is hard to do: Voters, for many reasons, usually trim congressional seats from a first-term president’s party. But the Democrats have benefited from the Republican plunge into extremism. The GOP still refuses to abandon Donald Trump and his violent insurrectionist movement; it is running ghastly candidates; and like a dog chasing a car, it smashed its snout into the bumper of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade, angering millions.
But autumn is here, and Democratic candidates are now struggling against this parade of election deniers, religious bigots, and conspiracy theorists who once would have been beyond the pale of modern American politics.
Jennifer Rubin: Democrats have a strong closing argument: The GOP would wreck the economy
Voters who follow the news closely will likely find it hard to believe that so many fellow Americans would even consider casting ballots for election deniers and Republicans who betrayed democracy. But“low information” Americans are the ones who will decide the midterm elections. Therefore, President Biden and his fellow Democrats must think carefully about their closing argument to win over these people.
Nancy Pelosi whose messaging is designed to benefit members from all over the country in competitive races. … described the choice voters have in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday: “We want to support and strengthen Medicare, Social Security, etcetera. [Republicans] want to use the debt ceiling to cut that.” She also noted that Republicans are willing to use the same tactic to reverse the Inflation Reduction Act’s provisions to lower prescription drug costs.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has threatened to use the looming deadline to raise the debt limit next year as a means to cut off aid to Ukraine and to roll back Biden’s economic agenda. House Republicans are also eyeing the debt limit deadline as a way to make cuts to hugely popular programs, such as Social Security and Medicare. At the same time, they are seeking to extend President Donald Trump’s tax cuts.

18-19 October
Benjamin Hart: ‘A Category 2 or 3 Hurricane Headed Democrats’ Way’
(New York) With less than three weeks to go before the midterms, the GOP appears to be gaining momentum, as inflation and the economy dominate voters’ concerns. And while the Senate outlook still remains plausibly optimistic for Democrats, the House presents a darker picture. Dave Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, has been closely tracking the relatively small number of competitive races, and he sees Republican momentum. I spoke with Wasserman, whose Twitter catchphrase “I’ve seen enough” signals a race’s conclusion for many political junkies, about the forbidding landscape for Democrats, why even big names like Katie Porter and Sean Patrick Maloney may be in trouble, and the muddled state of political polling.

How Utah’s Evan McMullin could become a key U.S. Senate power broker
(Reuters) – If U.S. Senate candidate Evan McMullin succeeds in unseating Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah, he could occupy a uniquely powerful role as an independent ready to work with either party in the narrowly divided chamber.
While maverick Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have used their positions in the 50-50 chamber to block parts of President Joe Biden’s agenda, an independent McMullin could wield even more influence if Republicans pick up one — and only one — other seat
“If we prevail in this race, it will make Utah the most influential state in the union, because nothing will get through the Senate without Utah’s support,” said McMullin.

Heather Cox Richardson: October 11, 2022
… in these last few weeks before the midterms, the Republican Party is demonstrating that it has fallen under the sway of its extremist wing. … But there is an interesting dynamic afoot. In some cases, Republican lawmakers, especially Representatives Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Liz Cheney (R-WY), have urged voters to back Democrats rather than election-denying extremist Republicans. And, as historical essayist Sarah Vowell noted on October 6, in deep red states like Montana and Utah where voters will not consider voting for a Democrat, Democrats have teamed up with never-Trump Republicans to back Independents who are now running strong against the radical extremists.
Why Republicans Could Prevail in the Popular Vote but Lose in the House
By Nate Cohn
In a potential reversal of recent structural trends, there’s a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952.
FiveThirtyEight
Republicans are favored to win the House
Republicans started the summer with a very strong chance of flipping the House, but their odds decreased following the Supreme’s Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
The fate of the chamber likely rests on the outcome of roughly a dozen toss-up seats, such as Virginia’s 2nd District and Pennsylvania’s 7th District. But the million-dollar question is whether the polls will shift back toward Republicans, as they have historically done when Democrats hold the presidency.
Democrats currently have about a 2-in-3 chance of holding onto the Senate. However, Republicans have plenty of opportunities for pick-ups, especially in Nevada and Georgia (though it remains to be seen how Herschel Walker’s scandals will impact the race). Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be on firmer footing in Arizona and could even pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, though that race has tightened somewhat.
But what if Republicans or Democrats were guaranteed to win certain states? Those odds would change. Play around with different scenarios on the interactive version of our forecast
Republicans are chasing key governorships. There’s one big thing missing.
The GOP candidates for governor in several key swing states are largely absent from the TV airwaves.
Republicans in some of the most hotly contested gubernatorial battlegrounds are barely spending any money on television ads, if at all, according to a POLITICO review of spending in state races. And elsewhere, GOP candidates who are on the airwaves are nevertheless getting significantly outspent by Democratic opponents.

8 October
4 Weeks Out, Senate Control Hangs in the Balance in Tumultuous Midterms
The G.O.P. claimed the momentum in the spring. Then the overturning of Roe v. Wade galvanized Democrats. As the momentum shifts again, the final stretch of the 2022 midterms defies predictability.
(NYT) …as the first mail-in ballots go out to voters, the outcome of the 2022 midterms on Nov. 8 appears unusually unpredictable — a reason for optimism for Democrats, given how severely the party that holds the White House has been punished in recent years.
Three states in particular — Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania — that are seen as the likeliest to change party hands have emerged as the epicenter of the Senate fight with an increasing volume of acrimony and advertising. In many ways, the two parties have been talking almost entirely past each other both on the campaign trail and on the airwaves — disagreeing less over particular policies than debating entirely different lists of challenges and threats facing the nation.
Senate Control Could Come Down to These Long-Shot Races
By Ed Kilgore
(New York) To seize the majority, Republicans need to protect their vulnerable seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and pick off a Democratic seat in Georgia or Nevada. You will notice the disparate number of must-win states: It’s a big part of why Democrats are currently favored to maintain control. (They are also helped, of course, by the sudden crisis threatening to overcome the campaign of Georgia Republican Herschel Walker).
With only 14 Democratic Senate seats up this year as opposed to 21 currently held by Republicans, the GOP has fewer long-shot targets. But there are two that could become iffy if the once imposing, then vanishing GOP wave reappears between now and November 8.
The most logical long-shot is in Colorado, where incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet won only 48 percent of the vote in 2010 and just barely 50 percent in 2016, before running a highly unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2020. … A less logical target is five-term Democratic incumbent Patty Murray of Washington. In that state’s nonpartisan top-two primary in August, Murray beat top Republican Tiffany Smiley by a 52-34 margin. … One final race in which Republicans have dim but undistinguished hopes is in New Hampshire, where Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan was considered very vulnerable going into the midterm cycle.
Republicans Have a Lot to Fear in November
(Bloomberg) The stakes are high because the Democrats have both grand legislative ambitions and possession of the White House.
Herschel Walker’s Candidacy Is Just Insulting
The contrast with his opponent renders it all the more egregious.
By Jemele Hill
(The Atlantic) Under different circumstances, a Senate race in the Deep South between two Black candidates would be something to celebrate. But Walker is so unqualified that the Georgia contest has become cringeworthy.

3 October
The Next Presidential Election Is Happening Right Now in the States
State-legislature elections could decide the fate of democracy.
By Russell Berman
(The Atlantic) Thousands of people run for state legislatures every two years, and many of the campaigns are important but sleepy affairs that hinge on debates over tax rates, school funding, and the condition of roads and bridges. Not this year, however, and not in Michigan. With Republican election deniers running up and down the ballot in key battlegrounds, many Democrats believe that the fight for power in state capitals this fall could ultimately determine the outcome of the presidential election in 2024.
Progressives have been intensifying their focus on state legislative power over the past decade. In the 2010 GOP wave, Republicans caught Democrats flat-footed, swept them from majorities across the country in 2010, and then locked in their advantage for years to come through gerrymandering in many states. Democrats reclaimed seven state legislative chambers in 2018, but their momentum slowed in 2020, when they failed to pick up a single chamber. They also lost the majorities they had gained in New Hampshire.

23 September
NYT Editorial board: This Threat to Democracy Is Hiding in Plain Sight
Many top Republican Party officials and lawmakers have spent the last two years striking back, and drawn the most attention for their efforts to pass “voter integrity” laws that aim to make voting more onerous under the guise of preventing fraud. From January 2021 to May of this year, just under three dozen restrictive laws had been passed in nearly 20 states, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
These are pernicious laws, and they undermine Americans’ hard-won rights to vote. But just as important is the matter of who counts the votes, and who decides which votes count and which do not.

7 September
The Mandela Effect To beat Ron Johnson and save the Senate, Wisconsin’s Democratic hopeful tries to rebrand himself.
Like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, [Mandela] Barnes emerged from the progressive wing of his party but today — unlike earlier in his career — he no longer calls himself a progressive in an attempt to appear less polarizing. Running hard on an economic message focused on a revival of local manufacturing and safeguarding small farmers, he is consciously attempting to increase his crossover appeal in a state that is more than 80 percent white and politically purple.
Johnson is probably the most endangered Republican senator this year: He is the one running for reelection in a state Joe Biden carried in 2020, and picking him off would virtually assure Democrats hold or expand their control of the Senate. The party may be feeling giddy about that proposition, though there are plenty of reasons to believe actually getting the job done will be far harder than it looks

5 September
Where Will the Midterms Go From Here?
The 2022 midterms could still take some twists and turns in the fall. Control of the Senate might not be resolved until another Georgia general election runoff, this one in December. Politics could stay hot even as the weather turns cold.
By Ed Kilgore
Traditionally, Labor Day is considered the time when general election campaigns really kick into gear. That’s not always true these days, and a few states — Delaware, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Louisiana — have yet to even hold primaries. But there is some genuine suspense as we head into the fall season, as Democrats are doing far better than expected. …
The race may be a referendum on Trump, not just Biden.
Midterms are typically referenda on the sitting president, but there is one person whose outsized presence could change the usual equation: Donald Trump. If the former president announces his 2024 candidacy, and/or is indicted before November 8, it might at least partially make this a “choice” election. That could boost base turnout in both parties, but it’s more likely to benefit Democrats; suburban swing voters who supported Biden in 2020 but flirted with the GOP in a midterm dominated by economic jitters, fears of crime, and “woke” elites may be put off by Trump’s lingering presence.

31 August
Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election in Alaska, defeating Palin
(WaPo) Democrat Mary Peltola has won a special election for the U.S. House in Alaska, defeating Republican Sarah Palin and becoming the first Alaska Native to win a seat in Congress as well as the first woman to clinch the state’s at-large district.
Peltola’s win flips a seat that had long been in Republican hands. She will serve the remainder of a term left open by the sudden death of Rep. Don Young (R) in March. Young represented Alaska in Congress for 49 years.
Peltola, who’s Yup’ik, is a tribal fisheries manager and former state representative who led in initial counts after the Aug. 16 election. But her win wasn’t assured until Wednesday, when Alaska election officials made decisive second-choice counts using the state’s new ranked-choice voting system.
Palin’s defeat comes in her first campaign since she stepped down as Alaska’s governor in 2009; former president Donald Trump endorsed her and held a rally on her behalf in Anchorage.

27 August
Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House
While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials

24 August
Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave
Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, it’s increasingly hard to see the once-clear signs of a G.O.P. advantage.
By Nate Cohn, Chief political analyst
(NYT) At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections.
But as the start of the general election campaign nears, it’s becoming increasingly hard to find any concrete signs of Republican strength.
…a growing pile of evidence suggesting that Democrats have rebounded in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision in late June to overturn Roe v. Wade. No matter the indicator, it’s hard to see the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage.
One special election would be easy to dismiss. But it’s not alone.
There have been five special congressional elections since the court’s Dobbs ruling overturned Roe, and Democrats have outperformed Mr. Biden’s 2020 showing in four of them. In the fifth district, Alaska’s at-large House special, the ranked-choice voting count is not complete, but they appear poised to outperform him there as well.
Don’t underestimate Charlie Crist. He’s going for DeSantis’s jugular.
(WaPo) Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) obliterated opponent Nikki Fried in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Florida governor. And now Crist, himself a former Republican governor of the state, goes up against the current Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, who has visions of the Oval Office dancing in his head.
Four takeaways from the New York and Florida primaries
Analysis by Amber Phillips
(WaPo) A Democrat who campaigned on abortion rights won in a New York swing district, and more MAGA Republicans may soon be coming to Washington
1. The Trump caucus will probably be strong in Congress next year
2. Democrats get another surprise August win driven by abortion rights
3. Democrats lose a major name in Congress because of redistricting
The epitome of Democrats’ redistricting problem is in Manhattan, where two Democratic committee chairs in Congress and huge names in New York politics had to face off for one newly redrawn district — Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn B. Maloney. In the end, voters rather easily decided to choose Nadler — and Maloney lost her job because Democrats’ gerrymandering backfired on them.
4. Can Florida Democrats win statewide this year?

22 August
The Senate looks like a jump ball. Here are the 10 seats that will decide the majority
(NPR) Four months ago — the last time we wrote about the top 10 seats most likely to change hands — Republicans were growing confident they would win the chamber.
But a lot has changed in that time.
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has boosted Democratic enthusiasm (and fundraising); a handful of hardline or untested Republican challengers won their primaries; and the Jan. 6 committee hearings and the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home have put him front and center yet again, threatening to make the election a choice rather than a referendum on President Biden and Democratic governance.
Pennsylvania (Previous: 1)
Georgia (Previous: 2)
Arizona (Previous: 5)
Nevada (Previous: 3)
Wisconsin (Previous: 4)
New Hampshire (Previous: 6)
North Carolina (Previous: 7)
Ohio (Previous: 8)
Florida (Previous: 9)
Colorado (Previous: 10)

9 August
With Deal in Hand, Democrats Enter the Fall Armed With Something New: Hope
(NYT) Vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire are holding events promoting the landmark legislation they passed over the weekend. Democratic ad makers are busily preparing a barrage of commercials about it across key battlegrounds. And the White House is set to deploy Cabinet members on a nationwide sales pitch.
The sweeping legislation, covering climate change and prescription drug prices, which came together in the Senate after more than a year of painfully public fits and starts, has kicked off a frenetic 91-day sprint to sell the package by November — and win over an electorate that has grown skeptical of Democratic rule. …the deal on the broad new legislation, along with signs of a brewing voter revolt over abortion rights, has some Democrats experiencing a flicker of an unfamiliar feeling: hope.

5 August
The Super-High-Stakes 2022 Race No One Is Talking About
By Gabriel Debenedetti
(New York) Charlie Crist’s pitch is easy to understand. The first thing to know is that Ron DeSantis, widely thought to be Donald Trump’s heir to the GOP throne, won Florida’s governorship by less than half a percentage point in 2018. The second is that what happens in Florida matters everywhere, since it’s the crown jewel of battleground states in presidential elections.

2 August
Abortion rights shockwave rocks the midterms and 3 other takeaways from primaries
(NPR) Tuesday was the biggest primary day left on the 2022 midterm calendar — and there were some telling results that could have implications for this fall
1. Abortion rights supporters get a major boost. It was a double-digit result on the side of abortion rights supporters. Even a close result in ruby red Kansas was going to be seen as an indicator of where the energy is when it comes to abortion. It’s fired up those who are outraged at the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and could help Democrats blunt expected GOP gains in the House and potentially hold the Senate.
2. Trump shows his strength in GOP primaries – again. Trump got some key wins, especially in the GOP election denial beehive that is Arizona and against a Michigan Republican who voted to impeach him after Jan. 6.
3. But Trump and MAGA candidates are going to be tested this fall. Can Trump candidates peddling his election lies and who hold hard-line policy positions win in general elections in swing states? Some of last night’s wins for Trump are shifting the landscape in Democrats’ favor.
4. Democrats potentially face a more powerful Trump if he becomes president. If they do win, though, and Trump runs and wins the presidency again, he will control more levers at the state level, including elections officials in swing states, than he did when he first took office in 2017 or when he left in 2021.
Five states hold primaries in big tests for Trump
(Axios) The success or failure of Trump-backed candidates — in both primaries and the general election — is an important barometer of his long-term grip on the party.
Primaries in Mich., Mo., and Ariz. present a fresh test of Trump’s influence
(WaPo) The former president has endorsed 24 candidates, many of whom have repeated his election falsehoods, including in key races in Arizona and Michigan. GOP voters will also decide the fate of three of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, in races in Michigan and Washington state.

30 July
G.O.P. Feuding and Chaos Endanger the Party’s Chances in Michigan
The down-ballot G.O.P. primaries in Michigan are emblematic of skirmishes across the country, where Trump-inspired insurgents are vying to wrest control from Republican power brokers who have long controlled purse strings and nominations.

17 July
Maryland Dems eager to break GOP’s hold on governor’s office
(AP) — One of the best opportunities for Democrats to regain a governor’s office this year is in Maryland, and the race to succeed term-limited Republican Larry Hogan has drawn a crowd of candidates.
Nationwide, Republicans hold a 28-22 edge in governor’s seats. Of the 36 governor’s races this year, Maryland and Massachusetts represent the best chances for Democrats to narrow the gap.
‘Nobody is coming to save us’: Florida Dems struggle ahead of August primary
Various Democrats said during the three-day “Leadership Blue” conference that they see openings that can be used to overcome Republican advantages.
… Privately, however, there was a sense of fatalism among state Democrats, who are heading into the 2022 midterms with an unpopular president, the highest inflation in 40 years and incumbents such as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis raking in millions and seeming unstoppable.
Adding to their problems is a dearth of national donor groups that have limited how much they’re willing to give to candidates after Democrats have suffered multiple defeats in recent election cycles.

14 June
Trump tests his clout in slate of primaries
Rep. Tom Rice’s challenger is teetering on the edge of a primary win after Rice voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
(Politico Nightly) Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement is on the line in more primaries Tuesday night that will shape the future of Congress, continuing his drive to punish even partial opposition inside the GOP, while a challenge from the left is hitting a different Democratic-controlled swing seat.

8 June
6 takeaways from primaries in California, Mississippi and other states
The United States held its biggest primary night of 2022 — by volume, at least — on Tuesday, with voters in seven states nominating candidates for November: California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. …here are some early takeaways from the races we know about so far.
1. Voters in blue cities send a message on crime — again
2. Jan. 6 commission suddenly an issue?
3. More incumbent trouble
4. The Trump update- Virtually every primary night has allowed us to glean some clues about Trump’s hold over the GOP and status as a kingmaker — with a decidedly mixed verdict thus far.
5. Effort to thwart Medicaid expansion fails in S.D. (see In South Dakota, the GOP war on democracy hits a wall)
6. A rare father-son duo in New Jersey – Come January, it appears New Jersey will be sending two Robert Menendezes (Bobs Menendez?) to Congress. That’s after the senator’s son, Robert Menendez Jr., easily won a primary in the 8th Congressional District.

7 June
US elections: How pro-Israel spending affects Palestine advocacy
Despite massive AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries, advocates say debate over US support for Israel not going away.
… the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is leading a push to influence Democratic congressional primaries across the country.

1 June
‘It’s going to be an army’: Tapes reveal GOP plan to contest elections
Placing operatives as poll workers and building a “hotline” to friendly attorneys are among the strategies to be deployed in Michigan and other swing states.
The plan, as outlined by a Republican National Committee staffer in Michigan, includes utilizing rules designed to provide political balance among poll workers to install party-trained volunteers prepared to challenge voters at Democratic-majority polling places, developing a website to connect those workers to local lawyers and establishing a network of party-friendly district attorneys who could intervene to block vote counts at certain precincts.

25 May
3 Questions About Tuesday’s Big Elections
Will Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” candidates accept defeat? Can Democrats find reasons for hope? And for other Republicans, what’s the price of Trump’s cold shoulder?
As our colleague Azi Paybarah notes, Trump has taken some “noteworthy losses” thus far this year.
In Texas,  In what may be the final test of the waning influence of the Bush family in the Republican Party, George P. Bush is fighting an uphill battle to unseat Ken Paxton, the Trump-endorsed, criminally indicted and ultraconservative incumbent.
UPDATE : Texas Primary Runoff Election Results
Live Updates: Kemp Routs Perdue as Georgians Reject Trump’s Meddling
In a landslide victory that represented a resounding rebuke of Donald J. Trump, Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia won the Republican nomination for a second term on Tuesday …  Stacey Abrams won her primary, and Senator Raphael Warnock will face Herschel Walker in November.

20 May
The Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary is almost certainly headed for a recount after the Associated Press said on Friday that it could not project a winner because the margins were too tight..

18 May
Trump Brings His Big Lie Playbook to the G.O.P. Primaries
John Cassidy
(The New Yorker) Tuesday was a mixed bag for candidates endorsed by the former President, who is making fresh suggestions of election fraud.
… In the G.O.P. Senate primary in North Carolina, the three-term congressman Ted Budd, whom Trump endorsed, won easily. So did Doug Mastriano, a far-right state senator who scored a last-minute endorsement from Trump in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary, and who made 2020 election denialism a core part of his candidacy. But Trump also backed some losers, including Madison Cawthorn, the controversial and soon-to-be former congressman from North Carolina.
Trump’s endorsement boosted Oz this Tuesday (just as it aided J. D. Vance in Ohio a couple of weeks ago), upending a race in which some of his own former flunkies, such as Hope Hicks, were already working for McCormick. With Trump’s help, a formerly pro-choice Muslim-American doctor who owes his career to the Democrat Oprah Winfrey and lives in a mansion on the Hudson, appears to have gained the support of a plurality, or a near plurality of Pennsylvanian G.O.P. voters. It’s hard to imagine this happening absent Trump’s endorsement.

3 May
Ohio
J.D. Vance, the “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist, won the Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat after an endorsement from former President Donald J. Trump.
7 ways Tuesday’s primaries could shake the 2022 election
Voters in Ohio and Indiana will nominate candidates in a key Senate race and more.
(Politico) …it’s been hard to keep all the characters — and drama — straight as the crowded, ugly race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has raged for more than a year, filled with brutal attack ads, personal sniping, wild swings in the polls and even a near-physical confrontation between two of the candidates.


1 March
Texas
Gov. Greg Abbott easily defeated two vocal primary opponents, and Beto O’Rourke, the former El Paso congressman and former presidential candidate, won the Democratic nomination. Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued and Trump-endorsed attorney general, was forced into a May runoff with George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner. Democratic congressional primaries will also go to runoffs in the 15th District — an open seat where the parties are pretty evenly matched — and in the 28th District, where Representative Henry Cuellar faces a progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros, who narrowly lost to him in 2020.

21 February
Trump’s Risky 2022 Endorsement Strategy
(New York) Former president Donald Trump really likes to endorse candidates for office, in keeping with his general determination to share his views on every imaginable subject. … Trump’s aggressive endorsement program, which often targets GOP incumbents with whom he has issues (typically stemming from a refusal to cooperate with his attempted 2020 election coup), has not gone over well with Republicans focused on party unity and general-election viability, as Politico reported recently.

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