Global economy November 2023-

Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Bretton Woods institutions under geopolitical fragmentation

Brace for Elections: 40 Countries Are Voting in 2024
Prepare for major policy changes and rising geopolitical friction everywhere from Washington, DC, to Taiwan.
(Bloomberg) The world economy is lumbering from one shock to another as brutal wars, stubborn inflation and high borrowing costs pockmark the post-pandemic recovery. The next source of turbulence: a packed 2024 election calendar. The year will bring 40 national elections — a busy lineup even in calmer political times. (1 November 2023)
Five trends to watch in 2023 as the global economy tries a dangerous reboot
By Josh Lipsky
(Atlantic Council) If you’ve listened closely to financial leaders over the past few months, one theme comes across clearly: They just want to get back to where they were before the pandemic.
If we could just get back to 2 percent inflation, if we could rewind the clock to before Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, if we could only get China to open up and manufacture for the world, then things would be fine.
This desire for normalcy is misguided. Europe’s over-reliance on Russian energy was a vulnerability waiting to be exploited. Low inflation vexed the US Federal Reserve in 2019 because it signaled weakness in the labor market. As for China, if you think things were running smoothly in 2019, you probably forgot about the trade war.
As we enter 2023, here are five underappreciated trends to watch in geoeconomics. With each trend, policymakers can focus on a return to the status quo or build something different, and better, this year.
3 January
Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.
By Antonia Colibasanu –
(Geopolitical Futures) In addition to the global economic slowdown, for the first time since the 1970s the world is simultaneously facing high inflation. The drivers of this bout of inflation include excessively loose monetary and fiscal policies that were kept in place for too long, the restructuring of global trade caused by the pandemic, and the sharp spike in the cost of energy, industrial metals, fertilizers and food as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Angered by the unequal distribution of the gains of globalization, voters demanded more government support for workers and those left behind. However well-intentioned, such policies risk an inflationary spiral as wages and prices struggle to keep pace with one another. Rising protectionism also restricts trade and impedes the movement of capital, limiting improvements on the supply side.

8-10 November
War, Inflation and Hints of Optimism Dominate New Economy Forum
Singapore minister says world is facing a ‘moment of danger’
But China’s Han says recent meetings with US a positive signal
The world is facing a “moment of danger” with wars in Ukraine and Gaza and “tripwires” that could trigger conflict in Taiwan and the South China Sea, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said as the three-day event got underway. “I’m very uncomfortable.”
The sixth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum will return to Singapore, mobilizing the world’s most influential leaders
This year’s theme, “Embracing Instability,” highlights the challenges confronting the global economy and underscores the opportunity to better understand and address underlying issues such as persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, the rise of artificial intelligence and the precarious state of the world’s climate.
5 November
New Economy: Xi-Biden preview
We’re bringing together some 450 leaders from across the region and around the world for a series of discussions that bridge the divides between East and West (as well as between the Global North and Global South).
On Friday, China confirmed that Vice President Han Zheng will attend the Forum in person and deliver an opening-day address. Coming only days before the in San Francisco, he’ll almost certainly give a sense of what to expect from the critical meeting on the sidelines between US President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping.
Even as the US and China double down on export and capital restrictions and joust over the future of Taiwan, both governments are gradually resuming dialogues on a range of issues, including nuclear arms control, maritime affairs and Israel’s war with Hamas. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described it last month, there’s now a re-engagement following a “dangerous” period of almost no senior-level talks.

Middle East war could spark global recession, say Wall Street experts
Fear adds to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk and increases ‘probability of European and of US recession’
(The Guardian) A global recession could be set in motion by the conflict in the Middle East as the humanitarian crisis compounds the challenges facing an already precarious world economy, two of Wall Street’s biggest names have warned. … In terms of the global economy, Larry Fink, chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, said a combination of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October, Israel’s resultant attack on Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year had pushed the world “almost to a whole new future”. …
Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, calls Israel’s war on Hamas and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‘scary and unpredictable’
“What’s happening on the geopolitical front right now is the most important thing for the future of the world – freedom, democracy, food, energy, immigration,” he said.
The comments come three weeks after similar apocalyptic remarks from Dimon, who is one of the world’s best known financiers. Last month, he warned that it was “the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”, with the escalating conflict potentially having “far-reaching impacts” on energy prices, food costs, international trade and diplomatic ties.JP Morgan CEO warns world may be facing ‘most dangerous time’ in decades
Jamie Dimon says Israel-Gaza conflict may have ‘far-reaching impacts’ on energy prices, food costs and international trade