Israel, Palestine/Gaza/Hamas 10 April 2024 –

Iran February 2024-

7 February 2024
Israel’s Self-Destruction – Netanyahu, the Palestinians, and the Price of Neglect
By Aluf Benn, Editor in Chief of Haaretz
(Foreign Affairs) October 7 was the worst calamity in Israel’s history. It is a national and personal turning point for anyone living in the country or associated with it. Having failed to stop the Hamas attack, the IDF has responded with overwhelming force, killing thousands of Palestinians and razing entire Gazan neighborhoods. But even as pilots drop bombs and commandos flush out Hamas’s tunnels, the Israeli government has not reckoned with the enmity that produced the attack—or what policies might prevent another. Its silence comes at the behest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has refused to lay out a postwar vision or order. Netanyahu has promised to “destroy Hamas,” but beyond military force, he has no strategy for eliminating the group and no clear plan for what would replace it as the de facto government of postwar Gaza.
His failure to strategize is no accident. Nor is it an act of political expediency designed to keep his right-wing coalition together. To live in peace, Israel will have to finally come to terms with the Palestinians, and that is something Netanyahu has opposed throughout his career.
He has devoted his tenure as prime minister, the longest in Israeli history, to undermining and sidelining the Palestinian national movement. He has promised his people that they can prosper without peace. He has sold the country on the idea that it can continue to occupy Palestinian lands forever at little domestic or international cost. And even now, in the wake of October 7, he has not changed this message. The only thing Netanyahu has said Israel will do after the war is maintain a “security perimeter” around Gaza—a thinly veiled euphemism for long-term occupation, including a cordon along the border that will eat up a big chunk of scarce Palestinian land.
… Ultimately, Israel’s future may look very much like its recent history. With or without Netanyahu, “conflict management” and “mowing the grass” will remain state policy—which means more occupation, settlements, and displacement. This strategy might appear to be the least risky option, at least for an Israeli public scarred by the horrors of October 7 and deaf to new suggestions of peace. But it will only lead to more catastrophe. Israelis cannot expect stability if they continue to ignore the Palestinians and reject their aspirations, their story, and even their presence.

26 April
Egypt sent a high-level delegation to Israel on Friday with the hope of brokering a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza, two officials said. At the same time, it warned that a possible Israeli offensive focused on Gaza’s city of Rafah — on the border with Egypt — could have catastrophic consequences for regional stability. Egypt’s top intelligence official, Abbas Kamel, is leading the delegation and planned to discuss with Israel a “new vision” for a prolonged ceasefire in Gaza, an Egyptian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission freely. Friday’s talks focused at first on a limited exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners, and the return of a significant number of displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza “with minimum restrictions,” the Egyptian official said.
The official said mediators are working on a compromise that will answer most of both parties’ main demands, then lead to continued negotiations with the goal of a larger deal to end the war. A Western diplomat in Cairo said that Egypt’s intensified efforts for a cease-fire aim to avert a Rafah offensive. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity to freely discuss the developments.
Hamas has said it will not back down from its demands for a permanent cease-fire and full withdrawal of Israeli troops, both of which Israel has rejected. Israel says it will continue military operations until Hamas is defeated and that it will retain a security presence in Gaza afterwards.

25 April
Hamas says they will disarm if independent Palestinian state is made
(The World) A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamist militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders. The comments by Khalil al-Hayya in an interview Wednesday came amid a stalemate in months of talks for a ceasefire in Gaza. The suggestion that Hamas would disarm appeared to be a significant concession by the militant group officially committed to Israel’s destruction. But it’s unlikely Israel would consider such a scenario. Speaking to the AP in Istanbul, Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization, headed by the rival Fatah faction, to form a unified government for Gaza and the West Bank.
Hamas official says group would lay down its arms if an independent Palestinian state is established
A top Hamas political official has told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a five-year truce with Israel and that it will lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.
BUT
9 January
Blinken urges Israel to engage with region on postwar plans that include path to Palestinian state

24 April
Amid a somber Passover in the Holy Land, a chilling reality remains: Israel could soon trigger an exodus into Egypt.
For weeks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled his intent to launch a full-scale offensive into Rafah, the southern Gazan city that’s now home to more than a million Palestinians seeking safe haven in their war-ravaged territory. Netanyahu and his allies want to wipe out militant group Hamas’s footprint in the city — no matter the skepticism of experts who reckon the Islamist organization is far from defeated or the concerns of foreign diplomats and aid workers who fear the calamities for civilians that would follow the Israeli onslaught

What are the obligations of Israel and Hamas to protect civilians? (pay wall)
International Humanitarian Law creates obligations—but contains numerous caveats
(The Economist) THE ISRAEL DEFENCE FORCES (IDF) are preparing for an offensive against the city of Rafah, in the southernmost tip of Gaza. It is the last redoubt of Hamas—but is also home to some 1.5m displaced Palestinians. Fearing a humanitarian catastrophe, even Israel’s closest ally, America, has warned against military operations there. But Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, insists that the IDF will go in. He claims to have a plan to protect civilians. One Israeli official said that the country was buying 40,000 tents to prepare for an evacuation. Israel argues that it has always abided by International Humanitarian Law (IHL) in Gaza. What exactly are its obligations?
Under the four Geneva Conventions of 1949, of which it is a signatory, Israel qualifies as a combatant, or “warring party”, in Gaza, which obliges it to observe strict prohibitions against targeting civilians, using starvation as a method of war and more. But Israel’s obligations towards Gazans could be greater still if it were considered an “occupying power”, a status that is hotly disputed. Israel claims it is not, but many international bodies argue that in practice it is: the country controls imports and access to Gaza to a significant degree, as well as maintaining the Palestinian population registry through its defence ministry. …

20 April
Thousands of Israelis join anti-government protests
(Reuters) – Thousands of Israeli demonstrators took to the streets on Saturday to call for new elections and demand more action from the government to bring the hostages held in Gaza home, in the latest round of protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

19 April
The unspoken story of why Israel didn’t clobber Iran
By David Ignatius
Over the past week, we’ve seen what looks to me like a considered decision by Israel to subtly reshape its strategy for deterring Iran and Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli deterrence is usually about massive use of offensive military force — a roundhouse punch that seeks to compel compliance through coercion.
But this time was different. When Iran launched a missile and drone barrage last weekend in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 strike on Iranian military leaders in Damascus, Syria, Israel used its Iron Dome defense system and help from allies to absorb the blow. The reported destruction of 99 percent of Iran’s incoming munitions was an astonishing display of missile defense. Some Israelis wanted to respond immediately with a big counter-barrage. But under pressure from President Biden, they waited.
When the Israeli response came early Friday, it was muted. Iranian and Israeli reports suggest that the Israeli air force attacked a site near some of Iran’s largest nuclear facilities. Those facilities weren’t damaged, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. But Israel sent the message that it can penetrate Iranian air defenses and hit strategic targets when it chooses.
Israel wanted the last word in this exchange, and it seems to have succeeded. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday, after talks with officials in Tehran, that “Iran does not want an escalation.”

14 April
Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take: Iran attacks Israel
What are the Israelis going to do? I mean, the hope for the United States is that while Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to do more and suck the United States into a broader war against Iran, that he is going to be constrained from doing so. In part because he was so successful, they now have a major victory on their belt under his watch, being able to defend the Israeli people completely in response to an unprecedented Iranian attack. And there’s also going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. Doesn’t mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally, I think that’s certainly not going to happen, but, there’s less pressure on the Israelis, on the prime minister, in terms of Gaza right now as a consequence of what Iran has done. And there’s also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near, in the immediate future.
… At the very least, I think there’ll be more significant strikes against Iranian proxies in the coming days. And the Israelis will also continue to engage in strikes against Iranian targets as they see them, as is opportune, in proxy states going forward. This is the problem, of course, is that, even though you have averted major escalation in a very dangerous period over the weekend, the Israelis and the Iranians haven’t accomplished anything to stabilize their relationship longer-term.
Israel has shown that they are capable of taking out Iranian leaders in Syria, and Iran can’t defend them. Iran has no intention of suddenly leaving those proxies to fend for themselves. And further, the likelihood that Israel now gets a breakthrough agreement on hostage release by Hamas, and that leads to a ceasefire, has gone down, at least in the near-term. The other side of that is the likelihood that the Israelis proceed with at least some form of ground attack into Rafah, which the Americans have warned them not to, also has gone up.
So the Hamas war with Israel is nowhere close to ending, the likelihood of continued Palestinian civilian casualties continues to grow, and the potential for further military engagement, both vis-a-vis proxies, including the Houthis in the Red Sea, the fact that the Iranians have also boarded an Israeli linked vessel in the Red Sea and that there is no effective deterrent in place right now between Israel and Iran, despite all sorts of other actors not wanting this to expand into a broader war, that all makes the Middle East right now, more dangerous.
… if you are looking ahead over the next, let’s say, six months, a couple things I think you can say. First, it is more likely that the present Israeli government is going to be in place for longer, and that the war in Gaza is going to continue without a serious effort at stabilization, or at least not one that’s consequential.

13 April
Hamas rejects Israel’s ceasefire response, sticks to main demands
(Reuters) – The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has rejected an Israeli ceasefire proposal, saying on Saturday it had handed to mediators in Egypt and Qatar its response to the proposal it had received last Monday.
After more than six months of war with Israel in Gaza, the negotiations remain deadlocked, with Hamas sticking to its demands that any agreement must end the war.
“We.. reaffirm our adherence to our demands and the national demands of our people; with a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation army from the entire Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced to their areas and places of residence, intensification of the entry of relief and aid, and the start of reconstruction,” the Islamist faction said.
Israel wants to secure the return of hostages seized by Hamas in its Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war, but says it will not stop fighting until Hamas is destroyed as a military force. It also says it still plans to carry out an assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million civilians have taken refuge.

12 April
‘We have to cut back on everything’: Palestinians farmers in West Bank say water is in short supply
(The World) As Israel’s war in Gaza continues, its impact on the lives of Palestinians in the occupied territories of the West Bank can be felt acutely in terms of water access.

10-11 April
Two views of Israel’s future
‘We need to fix the country’: Israelis ponder a post-war future
US President Joe Biden says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making a “mistake” with his approach to Gaza. More than 70% of Israeli respondents of a recent survey said Netanyahu should either resign now, or as soon as the war in Gaza ends.
(The World) Now, questions loom about a post-war future for Israel.
US President Joe Biden says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making a “mistake” with Israel’s military response in Gaza. And last month, US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer delivered even more blunt criticism in a speech on the Senate floor (A speech that sent shockwaves from Washington to Jerusalem).
Yoav Hendel, Israeli army reservist and former special forces soldier, who is also a former member of Israel’s parliament, said he will never forget who stepped up — and who didn’t — when the attacks occurred.
“Plenty of Israelis feel responsible and took leadership in those days when the politicians were shut down. They vanished in the first three weeks.”
Hendel believes those reservists on the frontlines of this war will take on new leadership roles in Israel. “We are talking a lot and doing a lot to make sure that after the war, we’ll be able to send those guys home — from the prime minister to the last minister that was responsible to what happened,” Hendel added.
A Jewish Theocracy That Resembles Iran
By Eran Yashiv, economist
(Haaretz) Wikipedia entry, April 2048.
Israel is a religious Jewish republic with a secular minority on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. Its regime is currently theocratic and authoritarian. Israel’s history as a state is relatively brief (100 years), though it is part of the long history of the Jewish people. Its official language is Hebrew. …
With time, Israel became more and more similar to Iran, which underwent similar political and economic processes, though these originated in a revolution rather than through gradual change. World Jewry, with the exception of the ultra-Orthodox community, distanced itself from Israel. Israel is deemed an extreme, failed state, undemocratic and illiberal, espousing a radical branch of Judaism and promoting theocratic and authoritarian values.