Global economy November 2023-

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Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Bretton Woods institutions under geopolitical fragmentation

‘Capitalism is dead. Now we have something much worse’: Yanis Varoufakis on extremism, Starmer, and the tyranny of big tech (The Guardian)
Yanis Varoufakis on the death of capitalism, Starmer, and the tyranny of big tech (YouTube)
The world is witnessing an epochal shift, according to Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis: from the now-dead capitalism, to “technofeudalism”.

(24 September 2023)
Brace for Elections: 40 Countries Are Voting in 2024
Prepare for major policy changes and rising geopolitical friction everywhere from Washington, DC, to Taiwan.
(Bloomberg) The world economy is lumbering from one shock to another as brutal wars, stubborn inflation and high borrowing costs pockmark the post-pandemic recovery. The next source of turbulence: a packed 2024 election calendar. The year will bring 40 national elections — a busy lineup even in calmer political times. (1 November 2023)

The Trussing Hour
Harold James
(Project Syndicate) Notwithstanding the historical lessons, trussing politicians will continue to demonize central banks. That may well happen in France this year, and it is likely to happen in the United States if Donald Trump wins the presidential election this November. Limitations on government action often lead angry citizens to demand more radical and destabilizing options, and that can lead countries to turn in on themselves and abandon international commitments, financial stability be damned.

25-27 June
AMNC24: Five things to know about the ‘Summer Davos’ in China
Leaders came together for the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions (AMNC) in Dalian, China.
From AI and entrepreneurship to energy and people, the programme addressed six core themes under the title ‘Next Frontiers for Growth’.
(WEF) More than 1,600 global leaders from over 80 countries came together in China to discuss solutions to revitalize the global economy through inclusive, sustainable growth.
The [AMNC] addressed six core themes: A New Global Economy, China and the World, Entrepreneurship in the Age of AI, New Frontiers for Industries, Investing in People, and Connecting Climate, Nature and Energy.
5 common threads emerged
1. A decisive moment for China
2. Globalization is ‘no longer a Western-centred story’
3. Climate is the ‘major area of cooperation’
4. AI and emerging tech can ‘level the playing field’
5. Economic growth needs ‘investment into human capital’

17 June
The Geopolitical Economy: Nationalism, Populism and a New ‘Yes, We Can’
By Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan
(Policy) The reality today is an uncomfortable mix of geopolitical turmoil, rising nationalism and rampant populism. A useful lens to try and make sense of it is “economic nationalism” – an old problem, recently re-framed on both the left and the right for a 21st-century economic reality.
The rhetoric of economic nationalism is a narrative of failure – by political leadership, by elites, and by institutions. The failure is rather generic – failing to prevent a loss of economic power or social status by groups within a country, or, by the country itself relative to perceived peers. And the failure narrative itself is couched in identity terms – “us vs. them” – and the attempts to stifle the popular will (populism) by the “them”.
The toolkit of economic nationalism is equally insidious – protectionism, exclusionary industrial policy, anti-immigration rhetoric and measures, rejection of the constraints imposed by economic orthodoxy, hostility to globalization, and antipathy to rules-based international institutions. Plus, economic nationalism is decidedly not a team sport – it sees the world in zero-sum terms, with policies that are designed to increase domestic competitiveness at the expense of other countries – some intended, some unintended.
A modern-day example of economic nationalism is Trumpism. It draws on the angst of many lower middle-class Americans who feel they lost their jobs and economic security to unfair foreign competition and a surge of immigrants, many illegal, competing unfairly with them for unskilled or semi-skilled jobs. To this sense of domestic “hollowing out”, and its perceived failure of “the establishment” to respond, you can add widespread concerns that America’s place in the world is being threatened by a rising foreign economic and military power, China, while others, including allies such as Canada and the EU, are viewed as “taking advantage” of the United States.
Economic nationalism with Chinese characteristics is also on full display in China. Aggressive nationalism has been a hallmark of President Xi Jinping’s leadership. Under President Xi, China has ramped up sabre rattling over Taiwan, anti-western populism, expansive industrial policies under the “Made in China 2025” umbrella, the flouting of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on subsidies, widespread non-tariff protectionist policies, and Party intervention in many sectors of the economy, particularly high tech and digital. Its embrace of a “no limits” partnership with Russia is more geopolitical than neighbourly, with a clear Chinese intent to weaken Western influence and solidarity.
Nor are the forces of economic nationalism limited to the two superpowers – they are also present in the Global South, where “resource nationalism” is on the rise. This is often combined with a “transactional internationalism”, which has been very evident in the response of many developing countries, particularly India, to the West’s sanctions on Russia.

4 June
The Dangerous Myth of Deglobalization
By Brad Setser
Misperceptions of the Global Economy Are Driving Bad Policies
(Foreign Affairs) A consensus is emerging that the world is cleaving into blocs—not only geopolitically but economically, too. In 2020, the economist Douglas Irwin wrote that “the COVID-19 pandemic is driving the world economy to retreat from global economic integration.” In the years since, how to manage this purported deglobalization has been a consistent theme at World Economic Forum meetings; in May, an Economist cover depicted a map of the world physically fracturing into competing economic blocs. The associated story presumed that deglobalization is a long-term certainty, arguing that it is becoming “visible in the economic data, as investors reprice assets and redirect capital in a less integrated world.” Last week, a Bloomberg columnist piled on, concluding that “global trade and finance are fragmenting into rival and increasingly hostile blocs, one centered on China and extending into the global South and another around the United States and other Western countries.”
But there is a problem with the assumption that deglobalization is a fact on the ground: the data does not fully back it up.

29 May
‘Cautious optimism’: Here’s what chief economists think about the state of the global economy
Aengus Collins, Head, Economic Growth, Revival and Transformation, and Kateryna Karunska, Insight Lead, Economic Growth, Revival and Transformation, World Economic Forum
The near-term outlook for the global economy is looking brighter, according to the latest Chief Economists Outlook.
Yet the report found that uncertainty and volatility remain, with domestic and international politics continuing to be a factor.
Almost seven in 10 expect global growth to return to 4% in the next five years.
(WEF) Despite geopolitical tensions and lingering economic headwinds, the outlook for the global economy is improving.
May 2024 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook launches amid a mood of cautious optimism about the global economy. This optimism is tempered by the uncertainty about geopolitical and domestic political developments, which are seen as sources of volatility this year. Despite some brightening of the near-term growth outlook, the latest results point to growing challenges for businesses and policy-makers. However, the views on the long-term prospects for the global economy are encouraging, with many policy opportunities to boost growth across high -and low-income economies.

15-20 April
The Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) bring together central bankers, ministers of finance and development, parliamentarians, private sector executives, representatives from civil society organizations and academics to discuss issues of global concern, including the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.
18 April
The big challenges facing the IMF and World Bank
Matthew Kendrick
(GZERO media) A tale of two recoveries. The IMF’s global economic outlook is fairly rosy as a whole. Inflation is easing in the US and Europe, and 3.2% growth of global GDP is a respectable clip – especially given recent fears of a recession. The US and Chinese economies are both growing, even if Beijing is still struggling with persistent debt and property market woes.
But the recovery has yet to reach every corner of the globe. One-third of the lowest-income countries are poorer today than in 2019, before the pandemic. And because inflation has pushed up interest rates, the costs of servicing sovereign debt have skyrocketed, an especially heavy burden for lower-income countries. Bringing financial stability to these fragile situations is a key focus for the IMF and the World Bank.
Power up. The World Bank announced it is launching a massive $35 billion plan to connect 300 million people in Africa to electricity. It’s the kind of fundamental development work the World Bank excels at, and it will help put the continent on track to drive an increasing share of global growth in the coming decades.
But many of the African students who might benefit from lightbulbs to study by also lack access to basic medical care – in fact, more than half the population of the globe finds themselves shut out of formal healthcare, and another two billion struggle to afford it. The World Bank plans to bring quality care to some 1.5 billion people and bolster public health systems to create sustainable improvements.
A new approach. World Bank President Ajay Banga stepped into a delicate situation succeeding David Malpass, who courted controversy with his skepticism about climate change. Banga is the first president in over a decade coming in from the private sector and he’s attempting to streamline processes and make the institution more agile and flexible, which may include merging the Bank’s keystone conferences into one.
How to tackle global challenges: The IMF & World Bank blueprint
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s Spring Meetings in Washington have told a tale of two economies: In the developed world, inflation is falling, and recession looks unlikely. But many of the world’s poorest countries are struggling under tremendous debt burdens inflated by rising interest rates that threaten to undo decades of development progress. That means these key lenders of last resort have their work cut out for them.
The good news? There’s a proven model, as GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick discussed with Tony Maciulis at a Global Stage event while reporting on the meetings. Somalia, once the byword for a failed state, managed to implement massive reforms to its financial system to meet the guidelines of the IMF’s Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative.
16 April
Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
(BBC) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany.
Oil exports have “held steady” and government spending has “remained high” contributing to growth, the IMF said.
Overall, it said the world economy had been “remarkably resilient”
“Despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops,” the IMF said.
Global economy is growing but may be headed for trouble, IMF says
Weak productivity means pace could slow between now and 2030
Two wars, higher interest rates and the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic have done little to slow the global economy, but that may be about to change, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The fund’s new forecast calls for global growth of 3.2 percent this year and next, virtually unchanged from its January assessment. Central banks in the United States, Europe and key emerging markets are making progress corralling inflation, though the fund warned that the fight against rising prices is not yet won.
While positive, the outlook is cause for only muted celebration.
This year’s anticipated growth falls short of the pre-pandemic annual average of 3.8 percent and reflects an uneven global picture, with the United States posting a better-than-expected result while Europe languishes and the world’s poorest nations fall further behind.
Climate in the World Bank’s spotlight
(Politico) The World Bank will have its back against the wall this week as financial titans from around the globe descend on Washington for a spring meeting poised to spotlight the tensions roiling climate finance efforts, Zack Colman reports.
President Ajay Banga’s efforts to address global challenges like climate change are on the line as rich and poor nations continue to point fingers around who should bear the brunt of the financial burden to pay for costs tied to more frequent and extreme disasters. Some have expressed concern that the bank has been slow to ramp up to the $2.4 trillion in annual investment economists say is needed by 2030 to meet climate goals.

15 April
The World Is Still on Fire
Lawrence H. Summers and N.K. Singh
For the last several years, world leaders have made big promises and laid out bold plans to mitigate the climate crisis and help the neediest countries adapt. At this year’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, they must demonstrate that they can fulfill these promises, rather than simply touting new ones.
(Project Syndicate) The world is facing the worst five-year span in three decades. Higher interest rates have left developing countries crushed by debt, and half of the poorest economies haven’t recovered to where they were before the pandemic. Growth is weak across large swaths of the world, and inflation remains persistently high. And behind it all, the thermometer keeps inching up. Last year was the warmest on record, as is true of nearly every month. … [World leaders] pledged that the World Bank would transform itself to work on climate change, and that the multilateral system would get new money and lend more aggressively with the resources it has, including to meet concessional needs. An agreement between creditors would provide debt relief to countries that most needed it. And where public money was insufficient, the multilateral system would be able to catalyze private investment in developing countries.
IMF & World Bank Spring Meetings 2024
The agenda is daunting, with issues such as sticky inflation, China’s struggling economy, and a rising risk of debt defaults. And, as IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made clear in her curtain-raiser speech at the Atlantic Council on Thursday, those are just the immediate problems. The medium-term challenges of job disruptions from artificial intelligence and the green energy transition can’t be ignored.
But as Iran’s large-scale attack on Israel this weekend reminded us, the ministers and governors will need to first address something else—the reality that geopolitical tensions and conflict have, as Georgieva said, “changed the playbook for global economic relations.”
World Economic Outlook: global growth is marginally stronger on account of robust activity in the United States and in many emerging market economies. Sustained household consumption and business investment and an easing of supply chain problems helped. And inflation is going down.
The resilience of the world economy, mostly due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals built over the last years, is helped by strong labor markets and an expanding labor force. The strength of labor supply is partly due to immigration, which has been especially helpful in countries with aging populations.

14 April
The world is seeing a feeble recovery characterized by multiple divergences
(Brookings) The global economic recovery is being weighed down by geopolitical conflicts, protectionist policies, and persistent inflation, say Eswar Prasad and Caroline Smiltneks.
The global economic recovery is being weighed down by geopolitical conflicts, protectionist policies, and persistent inflation. The latest update of the Brookings-FT Tiger indexes shows that global growth has flatlined, although there are glimmers of a positive turn in some countries’ economic fortunes in the year ahead.
The world economy is currently characterized by multiple divergences, starting with divergent growth trajectories of the major economies. The U.S. and India have maintained strong growth momentum while China’s economy is slowing down. Such contrasts are apparent even within the eurozone, where Germany continues flirting with recession while Italy and Spain have performed better. The second divergence is that between real economic performance and financial markets, with equity markets surging even in some countries whose economic performance remains sub-par and where monetary policy remains tight. The third is improving household and business confidence in many countries despite heightened uncertainty engendered by geopolitical stresses and unsettled domestic politics in countries facing elections.

5 April
ASEAN finance leaders end meetings in Laos, pointing to challenges from geopolitics, volatile prices
(AP) — Southeast Asian economies are gaining ground as tourism and exports recover from the shocks of the pandemic, but geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity prices still pose serious risks, regional financial leaders said Friday.
Laos’ Finance Minister Santiphab Phomvihane read out a joint statement following meetings among finance ministers at a hotel in the Laotian city of Luang Prabang, a UNESCO heritage site, but he made no other remarks and took no questions.
Estimates for economic growth in members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations vary but are generally near a robust 5% for 2024.
“Nevertheless, there are still challenges due to adverse financial spillovers from geopolitical tensions, volatility in global commodity prices,” Phomvihane said, also pointing to climate change, aging populations and rapid development of digitalization as key factors for the region.

27 March
The Future of the Care Economy
In the face of recent global crises, the essential role of the care economy has surged to the forefront of economic and social policy discussions.
(WEF) This white paper by the Global Future Council on the Future of the Care Economy calls on leaders worldwide to prioritize the care sector. It sheds light on the state of the care economy, emphasizing its critical importance to economic growth and societal well-being.
Focusing on overcoming systemic inequities and adapting to demographic changes, employment trends and skill requirements, the paper identifies care as a key driver of prosperity.
The future of the care economy relies on collaboration and a ‘care mindset’
The world’s care needs are increasing rapidly, yet unpaid work and unfair care arrangements are prevalent in many countries, a new World Economic Forum white paper finds.
The Future of the Care Economy explores the state of global care systems and the challenges that need to be overcome to build more performant, equitable care systems.
Tighter collaboration between government, business and community stakeholders is needed to build out a strong care economy that can support prosperity and growth.
There are 8 billion of us (and counting), all of whom need looking after for the better part of our lives. Food production, childrearing, community clinics, sanitation, schooling, physiotherapy, telehealth and retirement homes, among many other processes and relationships, make up the vast and complex global care economy.
However, care goods, services, and infrastructure are insufficient, inaccessible and unaffordable to large chunks of the global population. Furthermore, the lack of recognition for care as a valuable component of social and economic life is holding back care workers and caregivers: from having decent work, accessing skilling opportunities, engaging without prejudice in care activities, participating fully in community life, and even from caring for themselves.

16 March
Is the global economy finally on the right track?
Ian Bremmer and Dambisa Moyo unpack the confusing state of the global economy, China’s economic woes, and where they see the biggest potential for growth in developing economies during the next decade.
The global economy: good news and bad news from economist Dambisa Moyo (podcast)
(GZERO Media) Ian Bremmer sits down with economist, author, and member of the UK parliament’s House of Lords Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances, the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation, and how China’s economic woes are impacting everyone else.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries hold record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?

4 February
Don’t Count on a Soft Landing for the Global Economy
Kenneth Rogoff
Despite analysts’ increasingly optimistic forecasts for the coming year, the risks to global growth are still tilted to the downside. In fact, recent developments in China, Europe, and the United States suggest that the world economy’s biggest challenges may lie ahead.

26 January
A New Economic-Policy Agenda for Asia
Hoe Ee Khor and Runchana Pongsaparn
…pandemic-era policies must now be unwound against a backdrop of slower GDP growth, higher inflation, and increased debt.
During the pandemic, ASEAN+3 governments went all in to support their economies, not least by monetizing fiscal deficits – a taboo in normal times. The unprecedented fiscal stimulus they pursued – including large amounts of direct assistance to households and firms, from cash handouts to fuel subsidies – was accompanied by large interest-rate cuts. … Governments also pursued policies like debt moratoria and regulatory forbearance. In the post-pandemic era, these measures are excessive, imprudent, and unsustainable.
… ASEAN+3 policymakers must also address longer-term structural challenges. … Some countries might need infrastructure development, labor-market reforms, industrial policies, regulatory changes, and a concerted effort to boost foreign direct investment and trade. The ASEAN+3 countries should waste no time preparing for the formidable challenges they face. The outlook for the global economy depends on their success.

Davos Week 15-19 January
This week, over 2,800 leaders convened under the theme, Rebuilding Trust, to contribute to progress on four themes:
• Achieving Security and Cooperation in a Fractured World
• Creating Growth and Jobs for a New Era
• Artificial Intelligence as a Driving Force for the Economy and Society
• A Long-Term Strategy for Climate, Nature and Energy

20 January
AI’s impact on jobs could lead to global unrest, warns AI expert Marietje Schaake
The 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos was dominated by conversations about AI and its potential as well as possible pitfalls for society. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to former European Union parliamentarian Marietje Schaake about the current regulatory landscape, a recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) saying as many as 40% of jobs globally could be lost or impacted by AI, and how that might give rise to unrest as we head into a critical year of elections.
Different views: Altman’s​ optimism vs. IMF’s caution
Much of the buzz in Davos this year has been around artificial intelligence and the attendance of precocious talents like Open AI’s Sam Altman, who has helped pioneer the biggest technological breakthrough since the personal computer. The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook suggested near unanimity in the belief that productivity gains from AI will become economically significant in the next five years in high-income economies. And Altman himself has said he is motivated to “create tech-driven prosperity.”
But there are less rosy predictions around AI. The International Monetary Fund has warned that 40% of jobs worldwide could be adversely impacted and overall inequality could worsen. In the current feverish climate, such warnings have been dismissed.
19 January
WEF Press Release: Annual Meeting 2024: Rebuilding Trust Amid Uncertainty

Davos 2024: 4 things to know
1. Leaders need to ‘pull together’
Global cooperation and security – António Guterres warned on Wednesday, we mustn’t allow geopolitical divides to prevent global responses to global challenges, like climate change or AI, as he called for reforms to global governance systems.
2. ‘Projections are not destiny’
A new model for growth
Multiple factors, but also risks, will shape the global economy in 2024.
Consumption, trade patterns, debt, whether inflation will continue to cool, as well as geopolitical risks and fragmentation, were all on the table in our Global Economic Outlook.
3. ‘Humans are going to have better tools’
AI: Opportunities and challenges
Ensuring work forces of the future are prepared and able to take advantage of all that AI offers will be essential as well, as Julie Sweet told us in our Generative AI: Steam Engine of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? on Tuesday.
As Hadi Partovi stressed, we need to teach AI tools to everyone, so they don’t lose out to someone who understands the technology better.
4. ‘Urgency is our only saviour’
Tackling climate change and building new energy systems
We have an ‘existential climate crisis’, Ajay Banga told us on Wednesday. “A sense of urgency is our only saviour”, he said. It was a message repeated throughout the week.
As John Kerry told a session on what we need to do after COP28, it can’t be business as usual. We have the technology, he said, but we’re not deploying it fast enough.

18 January
The Davos elite embraced AI in 2023. Now they fear it.
(WaPo) [On] Tuesday…Swiss President Viola Amherd called for “global governance of AI,” raising concerns the technology might supercharge disinformation as a throng of countries head to the polls. …CEO Satya Nadella sought to assuage concerns the AI revolution would leave the world’s poorest behind, following the release of an International Monetary Fund report [AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity] this week that found the technology is likely to worsen inequality and stoke social tensions. And Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he was concerned about the rise of deepfake videos and audio, as AI-generated videos of him peddling cryptocurrency circulate the internet.
‘No shortages of headwinds’: Chief economists detail the hurdles facing the global economy
(WEF) The global economy is fraught with uncertainty, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook.
Global economic activity remains slow, financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical rifts continue to stunt economic prospects.
The World Economic Forum’s January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook  highlights the precarious nature of the current economic environment.

At Davos, conflict, climate change and AI get top billing as leaders converge for elite meeting
(AP) — The Earth is heating up, as is conflict in the Middle East. The world economy and Ukraine’s defense against Russia are sputtering along. Artificial intelligence could upend all our lives.
The to-do list of global priorities has grown for this year’s edition of the World Economic Forum

10-11 January
Davos 2024: A primer on the global elite gathering
As world leaders, CEOs, bankers and billionaires meet in Davos to try and solve the world’s problems, rising inequality and instability have eroded global trust in the institutions they represent.
Fake News Danger Becomes Top Davos Worry in Year of Elections
Forum’s survey shows misinformation as biggest short-term risk
Hardship, false facts and elections threaten ‘potent mix’
(Bloomberg) The annual poll conducted by the forum among more than 1,400 risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders put “misinformation and disinformation” at the top of threats facing the global economy in the short term. Concerns about the health of the planet dominate the outlook for the coming decade, a trend already seen in previous surveys.
Davos 2024: Extreme weather and misinformation top global risks
(Reuters) – Risk specialists see extreme weather and misinformation as most likely to trigger a global crisis in the next couple of years, a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released on Wednesday said.
While extreme weather was identified as the bigger risk in 2024, misinformation and disinformation came second and were found to be the most severe global risk over the next two years.
The Global Risks Report (PDF) explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict.
The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 will primarily focus on exploring the opportunities enabled by the new technologies and their implications on decision-making and global partnership.
The 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability.

9 January
Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts
(AP) — Hobbled by high interest rates, persistent inflation, slumping trade and a diminished China, the global economy will slow for a third consecutive year in 2024.
That is the picture sketched by the World Bank, which forecast Tuesday that the world economy will expand just 2.4% this year. That would be down from 2.6% growth in 2023, 3% in 2022 and a galloping 6.2% in 2021, which reflected the robust recovery from the pandemic recession of 2020.
Heightened global tensions, arising particularly from Israel’s war with Hamas and the conflict in Ukraine, pose the risk of even weaker growth. And World Bank officials express worry that deeply indebted poor countries cannot afford to make necessary investments to fight climate change and poverty.

8 January
Nouriel Roubini: Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?
Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation – the much-desired “soft landing.” But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any number of factors, not least geopolitics.

5 January
How Can the World’s Growth Engine Do Better?
The biggest threat facing the Chinese economy is a catastrophic debt-deflation spiral. To boost aggregate demand and prevent a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation, policymakers must adopt aggressive fiscal and monetary policies and reform China’s state-owned banks.
(Project Syndicate) The global economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2023, as the United States defied expectations and managed to avoid a recession. India, Vietnam, and Japan also achieved impressive economic performance given the circumstances. But while these countries have good reasons to be optimistic about 2024, China will most likely be the single largest contributor to global GDP growth this year.


28 December
The global economy in 2024: Key clues to watch out for
US interest rates, oil prices and the Chinese economy will determine the global economy next year.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), global output, while highly fragmented, will slow in 2024 as high interest rates snuff out persistent inflation and, by extension, economic activity
The Economist asks Will the BRICS challenge America in 2024?
The economic bloc wants to compete with America for dominance

11 December
World economy on brink of ‘cold war two’, IMF official warns
Gita Gopinath says global economy’s fragmentation into power blocs risks wipeout of trillions of dollars in GDP
Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said the accelerating fragmentation of the world economy into regional power blocs – centred around the US and China – risked wiping out trillions of dollars in global output.
“If we descend into cold war two, knowing the costs, we may not see mutually assured economic destruction. But we could see an annihilation of the gains from open trade,” she said.
Warning that the world was at a “turning point” as tensions mounted between the planet’s most powerful nations, Gopinath urged governments to pull back from the brink and work together on shared economic priorities where possible.

7 December
The Global Economy’s Unsolved Problems
José Antonio Ocampo, a former United Nations under-secretary-general and a former minister of finance and public credit of Colombia
A string of high-level meetings this year have produced a number of proposals for dealing with key global challenges, from unsustainable public debt to climate change. But few decisions have been made, and some of the most prominent proposals are deeply flawed.
(Project Syndicate) The global economic agenda has been packed in 2023. There was the United Nations High-Level Political Forum in July, dedicated to monitoring progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. The second SDG Summit was held in September, as was the G20 summit in New Delhi, followed in October by the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Marrakesh. In November, the UN adopted an important decision on international tax cooperation. Now, leaders are meeting in Dubai for the annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP28).
One obvious lesson from the meetings so far is that the world is taking far too long to achieve the SDGs – especially ending poverty and ensuring food security – and to make meaningful progress in the fight against climate change. Another is that the global economy is confronting policymakers with multiple risks: in 2022, a surge in inflation led to rapid interest-rate hikes in many countries, which, together with soaring public debt, limited governments’ ability to use expansionary fiscal policy to counter slowing growth. Although inflation is coming down, high interest rates and slower growth persist.
Among the measures that have been proposed at and around this year’s meetings, three stand out. First, international development financing must be expanded significantly. Second, developing countries need more support to enable them to contribute to the provision of global public goods, particularly the fight against global pandemics and climate change, and manage the effects of international economic disruptions. Third, some form of relief must be provided to countries at high risk of debt distress – a group that includes at least one-third of developing economies.

8-10 November
War, Inflation and Hints of Optimism Dominate New Economy Forum
Singapore minister says world is facing a ‘moment of danger’
But China’s Han says recent meetings with US a positive signal
The world is facing a “moment of danger” with wars in Ukraine and Gaza and “tripwires” that could trigger conflict in Taiwan and the South China Sea, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said as the three-day event got underway. “I’m very uncomfortable.”
The sixth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum will return to Singapore, mobilizing the world’s most influential leaders
This year’s theme, “Embracing Instability,” highlights the challenges confronting the global economy and underscores the opportunity to better understand and address underlying issues such as persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, the rise of artificial intelligence and the precarious state of the world’s climate.
5 November
New Economy: Xi-Biden preview
We’re bringing together some 450 leaders from across the region and around the world for a series of discussions that bridge the divides between East and West (as well as between the Global North and Global South).
On Friday, China confirmed that Vice President Han Zheng will attend the Forum in person and deliver an opening-day address. Coming only days before the in San Francisco, he’ll almost certainly give a sense of what to expect from the critical meeting on the sidelines between US President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping.
Even as the US and China double down on export and capital restrictions and joust over the future of Taiwan, both governments are gradually resuming dialogues on a range of issues, including nuclear arms control, maritime affairs and Israel’s war with Hamas. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described it last month, there’s now a re-engagement following a “dangerous” period of almost no senior-level talks.

Middle East war could spark global recession, say Wall Street experts
Fear adds to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk and increases ‘probability of European and of US recession’
(The Guardian) A global recession could be set in motion by the conflict in the Middle East as the humanitarian crisis compounds the challenges facing an already precarious world economy, two of Wall Street’s biggest names have warned. … In terms of the global economy, Larry Fink, chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, said a combination of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October, Israel’s resultant attack on Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year had pushed the world “almost to a whole new future”. …
Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, calls Israel’s war on Hamas and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‘scary and unpredictable’
“What’s happening on the geopolitical front right now is the most important thing for the future of the world – freedom, democracy, food, energy, immigration,” he said.
The comments come three weeks after similar apocalyptic remarks from Dimon, who is one of the world’s best known financiers. Last month, he warned that it was “the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”, with the escalating conflict potentially having “far-reaching impacts” on energy prices, food costs, international trade and diplomatic ties.JP Morgan CEO warns world may be facing ‘most dangerous time’ in decades
Jamie Dimon says Israel-Gaza conflict may have ‘far-reaching impacts’ on energy prices, food costs and international trade

Five trends to watch in 2023 as the global economy tries a dangerous reboot
By Josh Lipsky
(Atlantic Council) If you’ve listened closely to financial leaders over the past few months, one theme comes across clearly: They just want to get back to where they were before the pandemic.
If we could just get back to 2 percent inflation, if we could rewind the clock to before Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, if we could only get China to open up and manufacture for the world, then things would be fine.
This desire for normalcy is misguided. Europe’s over-reliance on Russian energy was a vulnerability waiting to be exploited. Low inflation vexed the US Federal Reserve in 2019 because it signaled weakness in the labor market. As for China, if you think things were running smoothly in 2019, you probably forgot about the trade war.
As we enter 2023, here are five underappreciated trends to watch in geoeconomics. With each trend, policymakers can focus on a return to the status quo or build something different, and better, this year.
3 January
Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.
By Antonia Colibasanu
(Geopolitical Futures) In addition to the global economic slowdown, for the first time since the 1970s the world is simultaneously facing high inflation. The drivers of this bout of inflation include excessively loose monetary and fiscal policies that were kept in place for too long, the restructuring of global trade caused by the pandemic, and the sharp spike in the cost of energy, industrial metals, fertilizers and food as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Angered by the unequal distribution of the gains of globalization, voters demanded more government support for workers and those left behind. However well-intentioned, such policies risk an inflationary spiral as wages and prices struggle to keep pace with one another. Rising protectionism also restricts trade and impedes the movement of capital, limiting improvements on the supply side.

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