U.S. – Russia relations April 2024 –

Written by  //  November 21, 2024  //  Russia, U.S.  //  Comments Off on U.S. – Russia relations April 2024 –

In raising nuclear threat, Putin bets Trump is willing to back down on Ukraine
Mark MacKinnon
Vladimir Putin has escalated Russia’s hybrid war against the West again and again over the past decade, betting each time that the United States, in particular, will back down before he does.
(Globe & Mail) Now Mr. Putin is upping the ante like never before, challenging Washington and its allies with a blunt question: Are they willing to risk a nuclear war over the fate of Ukraine?
The long-ruling Kremlin boss is betting that the answer will be no, particularly once U.S. president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.

19 November
Putin Sees America Hurtling to Disaster, With Trump at the Wheel
By Mikhail Zygar, a Russian journalist and the author of the newsletter The Last Pioneer.
(NYT) The American election results were received with enthusiasm in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin, offering his congratulations, seemed genuinely pleased. But it’s not because Donald Trump is seen as a pro-Russian politician or even one of their own — those illusions faded long ago. Nor is it the prospect of an advantageous peace deal in Ukraine, ruthlessly brokered by Mr. Trump. The first reported call between the two leaders, which the Kremlin denies took place, suggests that the incoming administration will be no pushover.
Instead, the excitement comes from something else. It’s that to many in the Kremlin, a Trump presidency might bring about the collapse of the American state.
The idea that the United States is entering the final stage of its history has been kicking around Russia for some time. For years, it was confined to fringe voices. But since around 2020, figures from the Kremlin have been making the argument, too.

Heather Cox Richardson November 11, 2024
Maxim Trudolyubov of the Wilson Center, a nonpartisan foreign affairs think tank, suggested Friday that Putin’s long-term goal of weakening the U.S. has made him more interested in dividing Americans than in any one candidate. Kremlin Was Hoping for Division in America, Not Victory for One Candidate
Indeed, rather than backing Trump wholeheartedly, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been undercutting him. He did not comment on Trump’s election until Thursday, when he said that the power of liberal democracies over world affairs is “irrevocably disappearing.” Although Ellen Nakashima, John Hudson, and Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post reported that Trump and Putin had spoken on Thursday, Putin denied such a call as “pure fiction.”
Exacerbating America’s internal divisions and demonstrating dominance over both the U.S. and Trump might explain why after Trump became president-elect, laughing Russian media figures showed viewers nude pictures of Trump’s third wife, Melania, taken during her modeling career.
In an interview, Putin’s presidential aide Nikolay Patrushev said today: “To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.” Meanwhile, U.S. and Ukrainian officials report that Russia has massed 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean soldiers, to reclaim territory in the Kursk region of Russia taken this year by Ukrainian forces.
Kremlin rejects reports of a conversation last week between Putin and Trump
(AP) The Kremlin on Monday rejected reports that President Vladimir Putin spoke last week with President-elect Donald Trump about the war in Ukraine, and a spokesman for Trump refused to comment on what he called his “private calls” with world leaders.
The Washington Post first reported on Sunday, citing anonymous sources, that the two spoke on Thursday, with Trump advising Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and cited the sizable U.S. military presence in Europe.
In a conference call Monday with journalists, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said “there was no conversation” and the report was “completely untrue, it is pure fiction.”

7 November
Putin congratulates Trump on his election victory in his first public comments on the US vote
(AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory in his first public comment on the U.S. vote, and he praised the president-elect’s courage during the July assassination attempt.
… Putin also said that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”

4 September
Right-wing influencers were duped to work for covert Russian influence operation, US says
(AP) — They have millions of followers online. They have been major players in right-wing political discourse since Donald Trump was president. And they worked unknowingly for a company that was a front for a Russian influence operation, U.S. prosecutors say.
An indictment filed Wednesday alleges a media company linked to six conservative influencers — including well-known personalities Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson — was secretly funded by Russian state media employees to churn out English-language videos that were “often consistent” with the Kremlin’s “interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions in order to weaken U.S. opposition” to Russian interests, like its war in Ukraine.
In addition to marking the third straight presidential election in which U.S. authorities have unveiled politically charged details about Russia’s attempted interference in U.S. politics, an indictment indicates how Moscow may be attempting to capitalize on the skyrocketing popularity of right-wing podcasters, livestreamers and other content creators who have found successful careers on social media in the years since Trump was in office.
The U.S. Justice Department doesn’t allege any wrongdoing by the influencers, some of whom it says were given false information about the source of the company’s funding. Instead, it accuses two employees of RT, a Russian state media company, of funneling nearly $10 million to a Tennessee-based content creation company for Russia-friendly content.
13 September 2022
US: Russia spent $300M to covertly influence world politics

1-3 August

Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich
(WSJ) The effort to bring home The Wall Street Journal reporter and others unfolded on three continents, involving spy agencies, billionaires, political power players and his fiercest advocate—his mother

Long Johns, Forensics and a Bound Russian Killer: Inside the Big Prisoner Swap
The complex choreography caught some prisoners being freed in their robes and slippers, unaware of their fates, and required forensic experts to make positive identifications.
(NYT) This account of the tense hours surrounding the exchange — the biggest between Moscow and the West since the Cold War — is based on new details revealed by Western government officials involved in the process, and on early testimony from the Russian political prisoners released as part of the deal.
The swap [involved]…a complex seven-country deal that required intricate planning and timing. The successful transfer highlighted the ability of some of the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies to cooperate on a distinct operation of shared interest, even as Russia and the West engage in a tense standoff over the war in Ukraine.
… Last month, C.I.A. officers met with F.S.B. counterparts in Turkey to agree on the final terms of the swap, and also to plan the dizzying logistics for how it could actually be carried out on the tarmac in Ankara.
But even in the final hours, the Western officials said, the Americans and Germans worried that something could go wrong — for example, that Russia might not deliver the agreed-upon roster of prisoners or swap in look-alikes.
US and Russia complete biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history, freeing Gershkovich and Whelan
(AP) — The United States and Russia completed their biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history on Thursday, with Moscow releasing journalist Evan Gershkovich and fellow American Paul Whelan, along with dissidents including Vladimir Kara-Murza, in a multinational deal that set two dozen people free.
The trade unfolded despite relations between Washington and Moscow being at their lowest point since the Cold War . Negotiators in backchannel talks at one point explored an exchange involving Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny but after his death in February ultimately stitched together a 24-person deal that required significant concessions from European allies, including the release of a Russian assassin, and secured freedom for a cluster of journalists, suspected spies, political prisoners and others.
Evan Gershkovich release: Biden and Harris greet Americans freed after prisoner swap
Emotional scenes at Andrews air force base as Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva step onto American soil
How Evan Gershkovich was finally freed after a 500-day odyssey in Russia’s prison system
Gershkovich was the first reporter to be charged with espionage since the cold war, and Putin barely hid his aim
(The Guardian) Evan Gershkovich was on a reporting trip deep in the Russian regions when the FSB came for him. The Wall Street Journal reporter was in Yekaterinburg, more than 850 miles from the Russian capital, when agents approached his table at a local bistro. As they frog-marched him out of the restaurant, the officers pulled Gershkovich’s shirt over his head to obscure his identity, witnesses said. The signal was clear: this was no ordinary arrest.
That began a nearly 500-day odyssey in Russia’s notorious prison system for Gershkovich, the first reporter to be arrested and charged with espionage since the cold war. The Russian government said Gershkovich had been recruited by the CIA to collect information about the country’s larger producer of main battle tanks, Uralvagonzavod.
The Kremlin Gets What It Wants
The release of journalists and dissidents is unequivocally good news—but the grubby reality is that the Russians have engaged in successful hostage-taking.
By Tom Nichols
(The Atlantic) Russia and its junior partner, Belarus, have agreed to a prisoner exchange with the United States and Germany. The deal includes the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, the retired U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, and the Russian British journalist and Kremlin opponent Vladimir Kara-Murza among the people who are being released after arrests and convictions on various charges. Some Russian dissidents, including allies of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny—who himself died in a Russian prison—were also freed and allowed to leave the country.
The Russians, for their part, are going to get their usual basket of criminals, including Vadim Krasikov*, a colonel in the Russian intelligence services who was sentenced to life in a German prison after carrying out a Kremlin-ordered hit on a Russian dissident in Berlin. Moscow’s shopping list also reportedly includes a Russian money launderer now in an American prison and two Russian spies caught in Slovenia.
*[Vadim Krasikov: who is Russian hitman linked to Navalny prisoner swap claim? – Allies of Russian opposition leader say he was killed to thwart exchange with FSB colonel jailed in Germany]
Today’s exchange is not a deal to trade professional intelligence officers as part of some romantic Cold War drama. No one is going to do a Bridge of Spies walk to freedom. (The hostages were flown to Ankara, where both sides agreed to meet and trade their prisoners.) The grubby reality is that the Russians have engaged in successful hostage-taking: They have arrested people on minor or trumped-up charges, and then agreed to free them in return for some very bad people the Kremlin wants to bring back to Russia. Krasikov, for one, will likely go home to “a hero’s welcome,” according to the investigative journalist Christo Grozev (who was reportedly involved in the negotiations). It’s that simple.
Trump congratulates Putin over deal that brought Evan Gershkovich home
(WaPo) Former president Donald Trump congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin over a prisoner swap that took place this week, saying the Russian strongman had outsmarted U.S. officials as part of the largest such deal since the end of the Cold War.

1 August
Foreign Interference in U.S. Election Heats Up
Russia and Iran aim to sow discord in the 2024 presidential race, officials warn.
(Foreign Policy) The U.S. intelligence community expects that Iran and Russia are adjusting their disinformation strategies to undermine democratic institutions, foment discord, and change public opinion in light of last month’s events, said a U.S. intelligence official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity based on ground rules set by the intelligence community.
– Russia is heavily leaning into right-wing conspiracy theories, including about the Trump assassination attempt, but said that the Kremlin expresses no clear preference for Trump in their efforts.
– Scaling up. The scale of foreign disinformation targeting U.S. elections is growing, especially with artificial intelligence powering it, and it’s getting more sophisticated, too.
– The U.S. intelligence official said foreign actors, especially Russia, are getting more professional, including by co-opting marketing and public relations firms to try to shape U.S. public opinion with fake websites and campaigns, even though Western authorities are catching up.

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