2024 U.S. campaign & election results & aftermath

2024 U.S. election campaign 20 June-31 October

Red states and blue states
Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms “red state” and “blue state” have referred to US states whose voters vote predominantly for one party—the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states—in presidential and other statewide elections. By contrast, states where the vote fluctuates between the Democratic and Republican candidates are known as “swing states” or “purple states”. Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties’ geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.

9 December
Small shifts, big consequences in state capitals
(Politico) The 2024 election results might have upended Washington, but they barely budged the political dynamics in state capitals across the country.
Republicans controlled 55 percent of the 7,000-plus state legislative seats going into Election Day, and they’re poised to hold almost exactly that — 55.25 percent — when legislatures gavel in next year. That’s a shift of only about 50 seats – far below the average of 195 over the past two decades, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
But a swing of just one or two seats can remake the prospects for enacting controversial policy changes like abortion protections, private school vouchers or renewable energy projects. Or it could be the difference between a standard legislative majority and a supermajority that can override the vetoes of a governor.

2 December
Republicans won big this year, but the data suggest its win streak may not last
Democrats outperformed the presidential ticket in several key Senate races.
By Michael A. Cohen, MSNBC Columnist
(MSNBC) Let’s be clear: The 2024 election was a bad outcome for the Democratic Party. They lost the White House and the Senate and missed a golden opportunity to win control of the House of Representatives.
The Democrats’ defeat has led to a host of postmortems and renting on what went wrong and what the party needs to do differently going forward. But a deep dive inside the numbers suggests that while the election results were bad for Democrats, they aren’t quite as awful as they seem.
For starters, it’s important to remember that Democrats were fighting an uphill battle this year. Around the globe, in 2024, every single incumbent party in a developed democracy lost vote share. You know the last time that happened? Never.
Moreover, while President-elect Donald Trump emerged victorious, his margin of victory, 1.6 points, was the fifth-smallest in the last 100 years. As much as the MAGA world wants to portray his victory as a landslide, it wasn’t. Of course, whether a candidate wins by one vote or several million, they still get to be president. …
Downballot GOP candidates received decidedly fewer votes than Trump. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers got 117,000 fewer votes than Trump — and lost to the Democrat, Rep. Elissa Slotkin. In Nevada, around 70,000 Trump voters failed to cast a ballot for Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown; the same goes for 54,000 voters in Wisconsin who voted for Trump and not GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde — who both lost. In Pennsylvania, 143,000 Trump voters didn’t vote for GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick, though he narrowly won his race.
… [Republicans] now control a governing trifecta, both houses of Congress and the White House (not to mention their stranglehold over the Supreme Court). But if the last few election cycles tell us anything, political power in America is fleeting. After all, in 2008, Democrats won a governing trifecta … and by 2016, the GOP controlled Congress and the White House. Four years later, the tables were completely turned, and Democrats won back a trifecta … only to lose it to Republicans four years later.

Steven Okun, CEO of APAC Advisors / US Politics and Geopolitical Analyst, Keynote Speaker on Trump 2.0
… Depends on your definition of “decisive”. His margin of victory will be less than 1.5% and he will fail to win a majority of Americans. This is the smallest winning popular vote margin since 2000. Only 780,000 votes separated the two candidates in all swing states combined. That said, it is clear he believes he can do whatever he chooses.

24 November
The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts
This article originally appeared on PolitiFact.
How big was President-elect Donald Trump’s victory? It was clear, but not a landslide by historical standards.
(NPR) Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote; in fact, Trump this year became only the second Republican to win the popular vote since 1988.
The vast majority of counties saw their margins shift in Trump’s direction, both in places where Republicans historically do well and places where Democrats generally have an edge.
At the same time, Trump’s margins — both in raw votes and in percentages — were small by historical standards, even for the past quarter century, when close elections have been the rule, including the 2000 Florida recount election and Trump’s previous two races in 2016 and 2020.

11 November
Misinformation Decided the US Election
J. Bradford DeLong
Polling data show that Donald Trump’s supporters were deeply misinformed about most of the campaign’s defining issues. Only if this is attributable to bad actors exploiting a broken information ecosystem, rather than an electoral majority that chooses to be misinformed, can there be hope of a healthier politics in America.
(Project Syndicate) In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early October, potential voters who knew or assumed that violent crime was not at or near all-time highs favored Kamala Harris by a 65-percentage-point margin, whereas those who were misinformed broke for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin. Likewise, among those who understood that inflation had declined over the past year, Harris was up by 53 points, whereas Trump was up by 19 points among the misinformed. Among those who knew that the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up by 20; and among those who knew that southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up by 59. What are we dealing with here? Do Trump voters express misinformed beliefs about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because they truly believe these falsehoods and are genuinely fearful for their country’s future? If it is the latter, one must ask how they came to hold these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we need to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that hoodwinked millions of people and turned our politics into a clown show.

7 November
The End of US Democracy Was All Too Predictable
Jason Stanley
Since Plato’s Republic 2,300 years ago, philosophers have understood the process by which demagogues come to power in free and fair elections, only to overthrow democracy and establish tyrannical rule. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out.
(Project Syndicate) In my own work, I have tried to describe, in minute detail, why and how people who feel slighted (materially or socially) come to accept pathologies – racism, homophobia, misogyny, ethnic nationalism, and religious bigotry – which, under conditions of greater equality, they would reject. And it is precisely those material conditions for a healthy, stable democracy that the United States lacks today. If anything, America has come to be singularly defined by its massive wealth inequality, a phenomenon that cannot but undermine social cohesion and breed resentment. With 2,300 years of democratic political philosophy suggesting that democracy is not sustainable under such conditions, no one should be surprised by the outcome of the 2024 election.

6 November
Voter anxiety over the economy and desires for ‘total upheaval’ brought Trump back to office, AP VoteCast shows
(AP via NPR) — A disaffected electorate wanted former President Donald Trump to return to the White House, a blatant rejection of Vice President Kamala Harris and her nearly four years with President Joe Biden.
Here’s where Donald Trump stands on key policies ahead of his second administration
The Republican’s victory came from a public so put off by America’s trajectory that they welcomed his brash and disruptive approach. About 3 in 10 voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Even if they weren’t looking for something that dramatic, more than half of voters overall said they wanted to see substantial change.
Andrew Coyne: Trump’s election is a crisis like no other, not only for the U.S. but the world
Nothing mattered, in the end. Not the probable dementia, the unfathomable ignorance, the emotional incontinence; not, certainly, the shambling, hate-filled campaign, or the ludicrously unworkable anti-policies.
The candidate out on bail in four jurisdictions, the convicted fraud artist, the adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator, the habitual bankrupt, the stooge of Vladimir Putin, the man who tried to overturn the last election and all of his creepy retinue of crooks, ideologues and lunatics: Americans took a long look at all this and said, yes please.
There is no sense in understating the depth of the disaster. This is a crisis like no other in our lifetimes. The government of the United States has been delivered into the hands of a gangster, whose sole purpose in running, besides staying out of jail, is to seek revenge on his enemies. The damage Donald Trump and his nihilist cronies can do – to America, but also to its democratic allies, and to the peace and security of the world – is incalculable. We are living in the time of Nero.
The first six months will be a time of maximum peril. NATO must from this moment be considered effectively obsolete, without the American security guarantee that has always been its bedrock. We may see new incursions by Russia into Europe – the poor Ukrainians are probably done for, but now it is the Baltics and the Poles who must worry – before the Europeans have time to organize an alternative. China may also accelerate its Taiwanese ambitions.

Why Donald Trump won and Kamala Harris lost: An early analysis of the results
William A. Galston
If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, Trump made strides among Latinos and African Americans, especially men.
The public’s judgment of Biden’s performance on two core issues—inflation and immigration—was harshly negative, and Harris inherited this disapproval.
Women’s share of the total vote rose only marginally from its level in 2020, and Harris’ share of the women who voted did not increase from Biden’s 2020 levels.
(Brookings) … Trump’s victory
Donald Trump’s theory of the case was broadly correct. He and his campaign managers believed that it was possible to build on Republicans’ growing strength among white working-class voters to create a multi-ethnic working-class coalition. He was right: If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, he made strides among Latinos and African Americans, especially men. He increased his share of the Black male vote from 12% to 20% and carried Hispanic men by nine points, 54% to 45%.
The Trump campaign also believed that they could improve their performance among young adults, and they did—from 35% in 2020 to 42% this year. Anecdotal evidence suggests that most of this gain reflected a shift toward Trump among young men. Trump spent lots of time on podcasts, such as Joe Rogan’s, whose principal audiences are this otherwise hard-to-reach group.
After the Republican primaries, the victorious Trump forces faced a choice: They could moderate their message to reach out to disappointed backers of Nikki Haley, who ran a traditional Reagan conservative campaign, or they could continue their all-out appeal to the Republican base while enjoying the grudging support of his defeated adversary. They chose the latter course and won the gamble that the party would unite around them.
Harris’ defeat
The Harris campaign was always running uphill. She served as vice president to a president whose approval rating plunged in the middle of his first year in office and never recovered. The public’s judgment of his performance on two core issues—inflation and immigration—was harshly negative, and Harris inherited this disapproval when Joe Biden abandoned his quest for a second term.
The fact that Biden waited so long to leave the race also worked against Harris. The president’s tardy decision deprived her of the opportunity to sharpen her arguments in a primary fight and shortened the time she had to introduce herself to the voters. She did the best she could in the circumstances by quickly unifying the party and building on Biden’s campaign apparatus rather than starting from scratch, but she never entirely overcame the difficulties stemming from Biden’s timetable.
Harris’ theory of the case was flawed. Looking at examples from the 2022 elections, she assumed that putting reproductive rights at the center of her agenda would mobilize an army of angry women and move them to the polls in record numbers. This did not happen. Women’s share of the total vote rose only marginally from its level in 2020, and Harris’ share of the women who voted did not increase from Biden’s 2020 levels. It is hard to judge how much this emphasis on abortion contributed to Harris’ poor showing among men—just 43%, down from Biden’s 48% in 2020—but it did nothing to convince them that a Harris administration would be sensitive to their concerns.
Her closing argument—that Donald Trump posed a clear and present danger to democracy—fared little better. This happened in part because many Republicans and Independents saw Harris and the Democrats as the real threats to democracy, and also because the charge offered no new information that would sway voters whose minds weren’t made up.

4 November
How Is It This Close?
The most remarkable thing about the 2024 presidential election is that roughly half the electorate still supports Donald Trump.
By David A. Graham
(The Atlantic) Some of the important reasons the election is so close are structural and have little to do with Trump or Harris. Underlying characteristics of the election benefit the Republican nominee: Voters in the United States are unhappy about the direction of the country, and voters around the world have been punishing incumbents. Although Harris is not the president, she has struggled to figure out how much to distance herself from Joe Biden and the administration in which she serves as vice president. Americans are also sour on the economy, and although the U.S. has weathered the post-COVID world and global inflation better than any of its peers, saying that is no use if voters don’t feel and believe it.

The Real Election Risk Comes Later
Amid heightened tensions, officials across the country are taking measures to keep voting secure and safe. It could be a long job.
By Elaine Godfrey
(The Atlantic) One week ago, in the middle of early voting, an arsonist attached incendiary devices to two ballot-drop boxes, one in Oregon and another in Washington State. Hundreds of ballots were scorched or burned beyond recognition.
Election experts and local leaders anticipate that this week, and probably some weeks after, will bring a torrent of election disinformation, online threats, and in-person tensions that could boil over into violence.
In response, officials across the country have transformed their tabulation centers into fortresses, with rolls of razor wire atop their fences and ballistic film reinforcing their windows. Election staffers are running drills with law-enforcement officers, studying nonviolent de-escalation tactics, and learning protocols for encountering packages containing mysterious white powder.
The more pressing concern, however, is what happens after Tuesday, in that period, fraught with impatience, between when election workers are counting votes and the results are confirmed. During this interval—which may be only hours, but may run to days in some places—there will be little actual news and many attempts to create some: At the very moment when a watchful press will be desperate for new developments, conspiracy theorists and Donald Trump’s allies will be intent on sowing chaos and doubt. …

In Pennsylvania, a race to keep voters from having their ballots thrown away
Thousands of voters are at risk of having their ballots cancelled due to simple errors, such as forgetting to date or sign the outer envelope.

3 November
Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find
Donald J. Trump has improved his standing in Pennsylvania even as late-deciding voters appear to be breaking for Kamala Harris.
The presidential race appears to be hurtling toward a photo finish, with the final set of polls by The New York Times and Siena College finding Vice President Kamala Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia as former President Donald J. Trump erases her lead in Pennsylvania and maintains his advantage in Arizona.
It has been decades since the polls have shown the nation facing a presidential race that is so close across so many states in both the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt. The tightly contested landscape means the race remains highly uncertain as the campaign enters its final hours.
Ms. Harris is now narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, the polls show, while Mr. Trump leads in Arizona. The polls show them locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the results in all seven states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead in any of them.

2 November
Harris said to plan ‘SNL’ appearance as she and Trump both court North Carolina
Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are aiming to get out the vote in North Carolina, where polls show the candidates within the margin of error. Heading into Election Day, Harris is continuing her star-studded rallies, stopping first in Atlanta for an appearance that included Spike Lee and performances by 2 Chainz and others. Later, she held a rally in Charlotte, with remarks by Kerry Washington and performances by singers including Brittney Spencer and Jon Bon Jovi. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was in Las Vegas to mobilize the vote and is now in Arizona for stops in Flagstaff and Tucson. Trump held a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, and was next scheduled to appear in Salem, Virginia, outside Roanoke, and Greensboro, North Carolina.

1 November
The 7 most likely scenarios for Election Day
Aaron Blake
The Washington Post’s polling averages show that all seven swing states are separated by two points or less. That means if things move only two points from where we think they stand, you could see a swing-state sweep for either candidate and a pretty decisive election — at least, in the electoral college.
Given all that uncertainty, I thought it worth walking through the most likely scenarios, as things appear to stand now, and how we might arrive at a victory for either candidate.
Here are seven of them, in rough order of plausibility — but with just about all of them being plausible.
1. A Harris squeaker — most likely via the ‘blue wall’
This would seem the most likely scenario, according to The Washington Post’s polling averages. That doesn’t mean it’s likely, period — just more likely than the others. …
The reason is that Harris currently holds a slight lead in four of seven swing states — Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — which puts her on course for 276 electoral votes (with 270 required)
And all she really needs are three: the Northern “blue wall” states. Throw in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District — where she leads by around 10 points — and Harris gets to exactly 270.

Five of the Election’s Biggest Unanswered Questions
When the votes are counted, we will learn more than just who won.
By Rogé Karma
(The Atlantic) Every presidential election appears to pose one big question—who will win?—that is in fact made up of countless smaller questions: How do voters really behave? Which old rules of politics still apply, and which are obsolete? What kind of country do we live in? In 2016, we learned that white evangelical voters would overwhelmingly support a louche serial philanderer. Four years later, we learned that Florida had shifted from the quintessential swing state to a Republican stronghold. Here are five of the biggest outstanding questions heading into next week’s vote.
Will the polls finally be right?
Will we finally see a youth gender gap?
Are Democrats losing Black and Hispanic support?
Does the economy matter?
Do campaigns make a difference?

The seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election
(BBC) About 240 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 US election, but only a relatively small number of them are likely to decide who becomes the next president.
Experts believe there are only a handful of so-called “swing” states that could plausibly be won by either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.
Seven of these – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are thought to hold the keys to the White House.
Both campaigns have therefore been targeting undecided voters in these states.

(NYT) Washington Gov. Jay Inslee says he is activating the state’s National Guard, placing personnel on standby in case they need to respond to “civil unrest” related to the election. The decision comes after ballot boxes were set on fire in the region and amid what Inslee described as “the potential for further violence and illegal activity.”

Why you should be paying close attention to statehouse elections
The last two years of divided control in Washington have spotlighted the degree to which state lawmakers are driving the country’s policy agenda. On issues like privacy protections, school vouchers and abortion access, gridlock on Capitol Hill has empowered state legislatures to fill the void.
While the outcome in Nov. 5 remains up in the air, there’s one thing that is clear: Much of the country’s most important legislative action will remain in the states.