Canada Federal Liberals 17 April 2024-

Québec Bill 96/Canada C-13

Rules of the race, and key dates to watch
The party’s board of directors released initial rules for the leadership contest after a Jan. 9 meeting. Contenders have until Jan. 23 to declare their candidacy and will have to pay a $350,000 entry fee.
The board also tightened the rules around voter eligibility, responding to concerns that anyone with a Canadian address over the age of 14 could potentially vote. For this contest, voters must be registered as a Liberal member by Jan. 27, be at least 14 years old, and be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident or have status under the Indian Act.
What happens when prorogation ends? The new leader’s next moves in March
When Parliament is prorogued, all business in the House effectively halts – but when that ends, there must be a Throne Speech that MPs vote on, and if the government loses, it falls and an election is called. The main opposition parties have all said they will vote down the government, regardless of who the prime minister is when MPs return on March 24. And with little clarity on when the next election will be, the new Liberal leader will face a tight deadline to organize a national campaign and set themselves apart from Mr. Trudeau.
Federal Liberals to announce new leader on March 9

10-11 January
Liberal minister Anita Anand says she will not run for party leadership or re-election
She says that following Trudeau’s decision to step down she has decided to return to teaching, research and public policy analysis
Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly not running for Liberal leadership: ‘I decided to put my country first’
(Natl Post) Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly says it is out of a “deep sense of duty” to her country that she is bowing out of the race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
On Friday morning, Joly announced that she will not be running for the Liberal leadership. Joly said she was personally ready to lead the Liberal party, but that leaving her current responsibilities at a time when U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is threatening tariffs on Canadian goods made running for the job impossible.

9 January
Federal Liberals to announce new leader on March 9
Liberals will choose their next leader — and Canada’s next prime minister — on March 9, the party said in a media release on Thursday night.
(CBC) After a frenzy of formal and informal meetings this week following Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down as prime minister, the Liberal Party’s national council decided on the date Thursday night.
The party is also setting the entry fee for potential candidates at $350,000 — a significant jump from the $75,000 fee set by the party for the previous leadership race.
Candidates will have to declare their intention to run and pay the entry fee by Jan. 23. People can register with the party to vote in the leadership race up until Jan. 27.
The party is limiting who can vote to Canadian citizens and permanent residents.
As the Liberals did during their last leadership race in 2013, they’re allowing people 14 years of age or older to vote. Unlike general elections where the voting age is 18, parties can set their own age restrictions. The Conservatives allowed people 16 years or older to vote during their last leadership contest in 2022.
The party executive did not say if cabinet ministers would have to vacate their portfolios if they want to run for the top job.

8 January
Dominic LeBlanc says he will not run to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader
LeBlanc, who was appointed to the finance minister’s post last month, has taken himself out of the running.
(Global) LeBlanc said he was going to focus his full attention on his job as finance minister and minister of intergovernmental affairs to co-ordinate a federal response to the threat of tariffs from an incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States.

6-7 January
Justin Trudeau Was His Own Worst Enemy
Stephen Marche
(NYT) In the sunny beginnings of Justin Trudeau’s time in power, a journalist asked him why his cabinet was 50 percent female. Mr. Trudeau gave a now well-known response: “Because it’s 2015.” If you want to know why on Monday he announced his plan to resign as prime minister, the answer is just as simple: Because it’s 2025.

Trudeau thought he could ‘pull a final rabbit out of the hat’ until recently: former advisor
Trudeau’s stubbornness helped his rise — but also his fall, says Gerald Butts
(CBC Radio The Current) … “I think it’s hard to say that he left at the appropriate time, if I can put it that way. It would have been a much more orderly transition for — most importantly — the country and certainly the party had he gone sooner than he did.
But … I know how difficult those jobs are, and I don’t want to be one of those people screaming from the sidelines. But it’s hard, you know, it’s hard to look at the circumstances that the country is in now and not say we’d all be in better shape had he gone last spring.”
Justin Trudeau’s national popularity plummeted long before he started losing his grip on the Liberal Party. The housing crisis, rampant inflation, parts of his government’s pandemic response, and dissatisfaction with progressive policies around immigration and other issues alienated many Canadians over time.
“You know, there’s a reason we’re all still reading Shakespeare or at least interested in Shakespeare. These narrative arcs are eternal and with tragic heroes, the things that serve them incredibly well on the way up often serve them incredibly poorly on the way down.
“And in Mr. Trudeau’s case, I think that’s his admirable stubbornness and self-confidence, which had he not possessed those qualities and in spades in the spring of 2015 … I’m not sure we’d be having this conversation right now.”
Justin Trudeau to step down as PM following Liberal leadership race
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is stepping down as Liberal leader, and is proroguing Parliament as the Liberal Party of Canada embarks on the journey to replace him.
(CTV) Citing the inability to overcome “internal battles,” Trudeau said that he intends to resign as both Liberal leader, and prime minister, once his party “selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide, competitive process.”
Prorogation has effectively killed all legislative business that hasn’t passed, leaving measures promised in Trudeau’s ill-fated fall economic statement in limbo, as well as the Liberals’ long-languishing pledge to crack down on harmful online content. These measures and others could be reinstated, if the other parties agree.
Asking for the House of Commons to be halted until late March comes after Trudeau’s advisers received legal guidance indicating that was the longest the government could go without approving spending.
Trudeau to resign as prime minister after nine years, blames party infighting
Trudeau, 53, has been in office for more than nine years
Trudeau says party infighting means he is not the right leader
Parliament to be suspended until March 24
(Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday said he would step down in the coming months after nine years in power, bowing to pressure from lawmakers alarmed by his Liberal Party’s miserable showing in pre-election polls.
A subdued Trudeau, among the most prominent progressive leaders in the world, told a press conference that he would stay on both as prime minister and Liberal leader until the party chooses a new chief within months.
Trudeau’s exit starts clock on leadership race
After months of internal fighting and slumping poll numbers, Prime Minister bows to pressure for his ouster
Here’s who could replace Justin Trudeau
Meet the leading candidates to become Canada’s next Liberal leader.
(Politico) Dominic LeBlanc, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand, Mélanie Joly, Christy Clark and Chrystia Freeland
Trudeau’s home riding of Papineau reacts to his resignation with mixed emotions
(Globe & Mail) Papineau is a diverse, densely populated riding of 110,000 people north of downtown comprising gentrified, hip neighbourhoods and substantial South Asian and Hispanic diasporas. According to the 2021 census, more than a third of its residents are immigrants, and 72 per cent are renters. Nearly half of them are francophones, with significant minorities of native English, Spanish, Arabic, Punjabi and Greek speakers.
After months of pressure from all sides, voters on Monday were not surprised by Mr. Trudeau’s announced departure. While some were relieved to see him go after enduring punishing inflation, others underscored the challenges he faced during his three mandates, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president.

2 January
Toronto MP and former Liberal cabinet minister Marco Mendicino won’t seek re-election
(CTV) In the statement, Mendicino detailed his work on behalf of that community, but wrote that, as “gratifying as it is, the work of an MP is not always easy.”
“It is no secret that I have disagreed with the current direction of the federal government on our foreign policy vis-a-vis our deteriorated relations with the State of Israel, our inadequate handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and our enfeebled role in the Middle East.”
Liberals leaving politics
Mendicino’s decision to leave federal politics comes after six cabinet ministers announced they would not run in the next election, including, most recently,former minister of housing Sean Fraser.
The decision also comes after a tumultuous number of weeks for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Last month, Chrystia Freeland announced she was resigning from cabinet as deputy prime minister and finance minister, saying she and Trudeau were at odds over the “best path forward for Canada.”
Since then, more than a dozen Liberal MPs have publicly asked the Prime Minister to step aside. The Ontario and Atlantic caucuses have met and decided to ask the same.

2024

27 December
Gerry Butts says Trudeau less likely to remain leader since Freeland quit
(CTV) A former chief adviser and close friend to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday he doesn’t think Trudeau will stay on to lead the Liberals in the next election.
Gerald Butts wrote in a Substack newsletter that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s surprise resignation from cabinet last week dealt Trudeau a staggering blow that loosened his already tenuous grip on the party.
His post came the same day the Conservatives said they will move to bring down the government as early as the end of January, by first moving a non-confidence motion in a House committee that will sit Jan. 7.
Butts said Trudeau was “unlikely” to lead the party into the next campaign before Freeland’s stunning departure and is “now much less likely to do so.”
Just a week ago, Butts joined the Liberal Christmas party confab in Ottawa alongside Trudeau’s longtime chief of staff and close confidant Katie Telford.

22 December
Trudeau won’t step down over Christmas, Freeland considers vying for Liberal leadership, sources say
(Globe & Mail) A Liberal insider said the Prime Minister continues to reflect on whether to stay or leave and will spend Christmas in Ottawa and then take a skiing vacation with his family in British Columbia.
… The first option is a leadership race that would take at least four months. This would require a request to Governor-General Mary Simon to prorogue Parliament until a new leader is selected, with Parliament set to resume on Jan. 27. The second option is to have the national executive of the Liberal Party select an interim leader on the recommendation of the Liberal caucus.

16-17 December
Canada’s finance minister resigns as unpopular Trudeau faces biggest test of his political career
(AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced the biggest test of his political career after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, long one of his most powerful and loyal ministers, resigned from the Cabinet on Monday.
The stunning move raised questions about how much longer the prime minister of nearly 10 years — whose popularity has plummeted due to concerns about inflation and immigration — can stay on as his administration scrambles to deal with incoming U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Sharan Kaur: I witnessed the toxicity of Trudeau’s PMO firsthand
As Bill Morneau’s deputy chief of staff, I saw how Liberal staffers engineer behind-the-scenes leaks to undermine inconvenient ministers
From Trudeau’s babysitter to loyal soldier, what we know about the new finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc
LeBlanc’s relationship with Trudeau, and their mutual relationships to the corridors of power, are generational; he even used to babysit Trudeau
Trudeau picks loyalist LeBlanc to replace Freeland after shock resignation sparks chaos
Freeland says she argued for ‘eschewing costly political gimmicks’ and ‘keeping our fiscal powder dry’
Antoine Trépanier, Catherine Lévesque
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation seems carefully aimed at removing a sitting prime minister
Sam Routley, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western University

28 October
(First Read- Natl Post) Today was supposed to be the day when unnamed Liberal dissidents would take unspecified actions against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for failing to resign. The details were all contained in a petition handed to Trudeau at a caucus meeting last Wednesday. Instead, nothing happened, and Trudeau said in a podcast appearance that there is “total unity in the caucus” and that Liberal infighting is a relic of a long-ago age.
18-23 October
Trudeau says Liberals ‘strong and united’ despite caucus dissent
(CTV) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the Liberal party is “strong and united,” despite efforts from within his caucus to oust him as leader.
It’s unclear exactly how many MPs are part of the effort to oust him, though sources have told CTV News it’s at least twenty, largely from Atlantic Canada and southwestern Ontario.
While he wouldn’t stop to take questions from reporters, Trudeau made the comment as caucus members made their way out of an exceptionally long and high-stakes meeting Wednesday, during which many of them were set to confront the prime minister and ask him to step down.
Trudeau’s zero hour: Liberals gear up for high-stakes showdown Wednesday
Wednesday’s caucus meeting could see multiple calls for Trudeau to resign but it is unclear what, if anything, will come of it
(National Post) Before the cabinet meeting, Liberal ministers on Tuesday were reaffirming their confidence in Trudeau in droves while downplaying the idea that dozens of MPs had added their signatures to a letter to ask the prime minister to step down for the good of the country.
Former B.C. premier Christy Clark wants to be ‘part of the conversation’ on Liberal party future
(CTV) As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing pressure to step aside, former B.C. premier Christy Clark says she is open to “returning to politics” should the position of Liberal leader become available.
But in a statement to CTV News on Monday, Clark acknowledges “the position of Liberal leader is not going to be available any time soon.”
No ‘time to waste’: Jean Chrétien’s former right-hand man asks Justin Trudeau to step down
Eddie Goldenberg’s call comes when dozens of Liberals are calling for Trudeau to resign
Eddie Goldenberg, who was Chrétien’s right-hand man for decades and served as chief of staff and senior policy advisor during his years in power, penned a piece called “Justin Trudeau’s Obligation to Canada” on Friday in which he argues that an undefeated Trudeau could be more useful in leading the fight against separatists in Quebec.
“The question for the Prime Minister is whether he is more valuable leading the Liberal Party to an almost certain defeat or whether he should do all he can to be in a strong position to be available to take a leading role in speaking up for Canada in a possible Quebec independence referendum,” he added.
… “Consider the role a Justin Trudeau, who had retired undefeated after more than nine years leading a government, could play in Quebec defending Canadian unity. This Justin Trudeau would have a positive legacy that would be remembered and respected.”
Eddie Goldenberg: Justin Trudeau’s Obligation to Canada

11-12 October
The four fatal ‘I’s of Justin Trudeau
Liberal support is a shadow of what it was nine years ago. Why? In brief: Incumbency, inflation, immigration and identity
Jeffrey Simpson
(Globe & Mail) … Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper knew the importance of patriotism. He tried therefore to pin patriotic sentiments on Conservative breasts. … He was never one for flowery or emotional rhetoric, but as prime minister he tried in his own way to appeal to patriotic sentiments.
But patriotism remained the Liberals’ high card. Until Justin Trudeau started down the trail of finding many of Canada’s past mistakes and raising them in the public consciousness above the country’s accomplishments. The contrition for past and present abuses against Indigenous people never ceased, but to that list of failures Mr. Trudeau and his team seemed eager to find just about everything else for which to apologize because for them virtue meant atoning for past mistakes rather than celebrating past accomplishments.
Data Dive with Nik Nanos:
Justin Trudeau is leading the Liberals back into the political wilderness
(Globe & Mail) …support for the Liberals has dropped in half – from the mid-40s to the 20s. Mr. Trudeau has taken what was traditionally a big tent party and fashioned it into a narrower movement.
Now the Liberals are likely to be on the receiving end of a change election.
8 October
Conservatives 40, Liberals 22, NDP 21 > Jobs/the economy top lists of concerns (Nanos)
To read the full report, click here.

Some Liberal MPs launch new push to oust Trudeau, as others question whether latest revolt will be effective
With the Prime Minister and his chief of staff, Katie Telford, away on an international trip last week, sources said some MPs began organizing a new campaign to ask Mr. Trudeau to step down. A similar effort in the summer, after the Liberals lost a by-election in a Toronto riding the party had held for three decades, ended with only New Brunswick MP Wayne Long putting his name publicly on an e-mail calling for the Prime Minister to step down.
This time, sources say there is no e-mail or letter being circulated but rather names are being gathered to try and identify enough MPs that will make it difficult for Mr. Trudeau to resist the push.
Two of the MPs who were named by other sources as key organizers in the latest attempt to remove the Prime Minister said they had no part in the revolt.

13 September
Finally!
Trudeau accuses Legault of ‘attacking’ English Canadians to protect French
“He’s trying to pit people against each other,” the prime minister said on a recent trip to Montreal.
CJAD’s Aaron Rand asked Trudeau what he has to say to Montreal anglophones voting in the coming LaSalle—Émard—Verdun byelection who feel the federal Liberals have let them down.
“First of all, I understand that feeling,” Trudeau responded. “They see a government in Quebec City, the Legault government, that has decided the best way to protect French — which is something that I agree with, yes, we need to protect French — but Legault has decided the best way to protect French is to attack English Canadians. And that doesn’t make any sense.”

9 September
Mark Carney tapped by Liberals to lead new task force advising Trudeau
(Global news) Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will take on a new role as chair of a Liberal Party task force advising Justin Trudeau, the party leader, about economic growth.
The new role for Carney was announced Monday and will see him advising the party leader on how to “develop and shape ideas for the next phase of Canada’s strategy for near- and longer-term economic growth and productivity, building on the Liberal government’s work to strengthen the middle class and deliver lower costs for families,” a party press release said.
Carney’s role does not have him joining the Prime Minister’s Office, the Privy Council Office, or Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s office. Instead, the role is with the party itself.

Liberal MP says her constituents are ‘very adamant’ Justin Trudeau needs to go
Speaking on the sidelines of the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., Quebec Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès told CBC News that while she personally believes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should continue to lead the Liberal Party, her constituents don’t.
Mendes said she’s expecting other MPs to raise similar concerns after a tumultuous summer that saw the party lose a byelection in Toronto-St. Paul’s in June. Some Toronto voters said they saw the byelection as a referendum on Trudeau.
The party is facing other challenges as well. Its national campaign director quit last week and the NDP ended the supply-and-confidence agreement that has propped up the Liberal government for the last two-plus years.
The party is also in a three-way fight with the Bloc Québécois and the NDP to hold LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, a once solidly Liberal riding in Montreal, on Sept. 16. The Liberals aren’t expected to be competitive in another byelection on that day in the Winnipeg-area riding of Elmwood-Transcona.
Five chiefs of staff set to leave the Trudeau government
(Globe & Mail) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is contending with an exodus of senior staff just as the minority Liberals are returning to a precarious position in the House of Commons, having lost the automatic support of the New Democratic Party.
Five of his 38 ministers are losing their chiefs of staff in quick succession with several already gone, including the top advisers at Global Affairs, Heritage, Environment, National Revenue, and Mental Health and Addictions, according to six Liberal sources who each confirmed some of the names of those leaving.
… Many of the top staff posts have already been filled with the second-in-commands for each office, but the most important one at Global Affairs does not yet have a permanent replacement.
Alexandre Boulé is now the acting chief for Ms. Joly, her office confirmed Sunday. Meantime, Mr. Kippen is being replaced at Environment by deputy chief of staff Joanna Dafoe and Mr. Welch is being replaced at Heritage by deputy Michael Lartigau.
6 September
Jeremy Broadhurst resigns as Liberal campaign director

4 September
Jagmeet Singh ends Liberal-NDP deal that helped support Trudeau’s minority government
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is pulling his party out of its supply and confidence agreement with the minority Liberal government and will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to support the government on confidence matters.
Mr. Singh made the announcement via a video posted online Wednesday. He was not immediately available to answer questions from the media.
Omer Aziz: Justin Trudeau must call a leadership race, before it’s too late
After almost a decade in power, Mr. Trudeau and the current Liberal leadership have run out of ideas. All the dynamism and energy are with the Conservatives. The anger today is singularly directed at Mr. Trudeau. This is not surprising. The Trudeau Liberals built their entire brand around the Prime Minister’s personal appeal; when Canadians soured on his integrity and effectiveness, they also soured on the Liberals. Should Mr. Trudeau decide to lead the Liberals into the next election, he will take the party down with him in what will likely be a generational defeat.

28 August
Liberal staffers pull support for party in Montreal byelection, citing government’s stance on Gaza
In letter to PM, more than 50 political staff say they will not support partisan activity
(CBC) The Liberal Party of Canada is facing a revolt by ministerial staffers, mostly of Arab and Muslim origin, over the Trudeau government’s handling of the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generally.
Fifty-two Arab and Muslim staffers working in the Liberal government signed a letter addressed to “the leader of the Liberal Party” that says they will not participate in its byelection campaign to hold on to the seat of LaSalle–Emard–Verdun, left vacant by the resignation of former Liberal justice minister David Lametti.
Referring to “the increasing push for Liberal staff members to phone bank and door knock,” the letter obtained by CBC News warns that “while many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values.”

26-28 August
Liberal cabinet set to focus on Canada-U.S. trade relations on third and final day of retreat
Ottawa to clamp down on low-wage temporary foreign worker program
Ottawa will reverse its expansion of the low-wage temporary foreign worker program and is considering whether to reduce the number of permanent residents that Canada accepts annually, the latest moves to restrain population growth that has soared in recent years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveiled the changes on Monday, the second day of his cabinet’s retreat in Halifax, where ministers are crafting the fall agenda with just one year to go until the next federal election.

19 August
SHUFFLE WATCH
(Ottawa Playbook) — Spotlight on Quebec: If Quebec lieutenant and Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ bids federal politics adieu, Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to maintain the province’s headcount in Cabinet. Who gets the call?
The Quebec Liberal caucus sans Rodriguez would include 33 MPs. Ten of them (plus Trudeau) are in Cabinet, and one is House speaker. Seven are parliamentary secretaries, a traditional stepping stone to the front bench.
— The parlsecs: RACHEL BENDAYAN, ÉLISABETH BRIÈRE, ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER, ANNIE KOUTRAKIS, STÉPHANE LAUZON, SHERRY ROMANADO and SAMEER ZUBERI.
Among those ranks, Bendayan stands out. The 44-year-old Moroccan-Jewish lawyer and former senior Hill staffer reps Outremont, a former Liberal stronghold she reclaimed following TOM MULCAIR‘s 11-year interlude as an NDP MP.
— But, but, but: The chattering classes love to mention ANNA GAINEY, a rookie MP with a long history in the Liberal Party’s Trudeau era — and a personal connection to the PM.
The retreat beckons: Ministers gather Sunday. Whisperers are musing about a shuffle early this week to help the newbies get their feet wet in rapid-fire briefings.
15 August
Critical reset
After an eventful summer, strategists say this year’s Liberal cabinet retreat is nothing short of a critical juncture for the federal government.
— Shrinking window: If Trudeau’s inner circle is currently moving around magnets on a whiteboard in anticipation of a Cabinet reset, they’ve left themselves scant space on the calendar for a swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall.
There are any number of reasons to refresh the frontline troops: policy reset, pre-election planning, and/or replacing soon-to-retire ministers with newbies.
Ministers head to Halifax for a Cabinet retreat Aug. 25-27. That leaves little more than a week to fly everybody to Ottawa for a swearing-in — and even less time for departmental briefers to bring the shuffled up to speed.
Keep an eye out for government sources familiar with the prime minister’s thinking who aren’t authorized to speak publicly — aka the insiders who want to control the spin.
— Countdown is on: 10 days until the Halifax retreat formally gets underway.

13 August
By-election: Milliard considered then refused to run for the federal Liberals
(CTV) Aspiring Quebec Liberal Party leader Charles Milliard was approached by Justin Trudeau’s party to run in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election, which is currently taking place. Milliard says he “considered” and then “turned down” the offer to concentrate on the provincial Liberal leadership race.
Milliard’s name had been circulating behind the scenes for several months. Last June, he announced that he was stepping down as president and general manager of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec (FCCQ) to think things over. Milliard announced last Friday that he was officially entering the race to succeed Dominique Anglade.
The riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun has been vacant since David Lametti resigned on 31 January, a few months after being excluded from the cabinet in last summer’s reshuffle.
Trudeau’s decision to prevent Liberal members from choosing their candidate in this by-election, instead choosing municipal councillor Laura Palestini last June, angered three aspiring candidates who campaigned in vain for five months for the nomination.

29 July
Who’s next? The contenders to replace a troubled Justin Trudeau
The PM’s chances of winning a fourth term range from slim to none. Here’s 10 who could step up if he steps down
Catherine Lévesque, Ryan Tumilty, Stuart Thomson
(National Post) Liberal strategist Andrew Perez, one of the first Liberals to call for Trudeau to resign after the party’s shocking byelection defeat in June, told the National Post that the Liberals could “draw a bit of inspiration” from the U.S. Democrats after Joe Biden announced he was stepping down.
So far, only former Liberal MP Frank Baylis has openly said he is considering a leadership run. But here are the people who could be possible contenders should Trudeau change his mind and step aside. Some are predictable possibilities, but others might surprise you.

19-23 July
Decision to parachute Trudeau’s choice into Montreal byelection shocks would-be candidates
A decision by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to prevent Liberal party members from choosing their own candidate in a byelection in the riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by parachuting in his own choice is not going over well with those who had sought to win the nomination locally.
Montreal byelection: aspiring Liberal candidates say Trudeau’s choice is ‘undemocratic’
Laura Palestini, a city councillor in Montreal’s LaSalle borough, will run as a Liberal Party candidate in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun byelection.
(CTV) The Liberals announced Montreal city Coun. Laura Palestini last week as the party’s candidate in a byelection whose date has yet to be announced for the riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. The byelection must be called by July 30.
Three aspiring candidates — local school commissioner Lori Morrison; entrepreneur Christopher Baenninger; and former Quebec Liberal party organizer Eddy Kara — denounced the decision….
Montreal city councillor Laura Palestini running in byelection for the Liberals
(CCTV) The Conservative Party says its candidate will be small business owner Louis Ialenti, while the NDP have nominated Craig Sauvé, who is also a city councillor.

18 July
Trudeau cabinet to meet Friday as speculation around a shuffle swirls
Nothing happened
Federal Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan resigns from Trudeau’s cabinet
(Globe & Mail) Lori Turnbull, chair of the public and international affairs department at Dalhousie University, said Mr. O’Regan’s exit means the Prime Minister is losing a close ally and someone who has his back personally at an already vulnerable time for Mr. Trudeau.
She added that it’s unlikely that his resignation is connected to questions about the future of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, but the timing is unhelpful. She added that the Prime Minister is already under intense pressure to make significant changes in his government in order to appease a restless caucus.
“He needs to do something definitive, like a major shuffle, before the caucus retreat and return of the House,” Prof. Turnbull said.
… A source with direct knowledge said that Mr. O’Regan informed the Prime Minister several weeks ago that he wanted to leave politics so he could spend more time with his partner.
The source said Mr. O’Regan found it difficult living in Ottawa and commuting to Newfoundland while his spouse lives in Toronto.

Morning Update: Chrystia Freeland’s much-discussed future
Freeland, Carney and the Finance dilemma
The complaints about Chrystia Freeland started last week, when sources within the Prime Minister’s Office told The Globe and Mail they felt the Finance Minister wasn’t quite selling an upbeat economic message. Perhaps it was time to replace the messenger: One source said that Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had been floated as a potential replacement.
Justin Trudeau didn’t exactly quell those rumours at a news conference – he declined to say whether he wanted Freeland to stay on the job but did note that he’d been trying for years to recruit Carney to federal politics. At her own news conference on Tuesday, Freeland opted not to weigh in on her future in the role. Then, in a Globe report last night, more sources popped up to say that Trudeau met with Carney over the weekend but hadn’t offered him a cabinet post, while Freeland had been assured her position was currently safe.
So is Canada in store for a finance minister switch-up? And would Carney even want the gig? And why do these rumours sound awfully familiar?

11 July
Comment from iPolitics
Does Globe report herald the end of Freeland’s tenure as finance minister?
Some Liberal insiders say it’s clear that Freeland’s job is in jeopardy but others doubt that Trudeau would actually remove her, owing to her loyalty to the PM and doubts that Mark Carney would want to swoop into replace her as doing so would tie him to an unpopular government heading to the polls in just over a year.
A Liberal strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said it has become more evident that the Globe story was prompted by leaks from the PMO. When asked today, the prime minister and his office insisted he has full confidence in Freeland, but didn’t explicitly commit to keeping her in the finance portfolio.
Trudeau says he’s trying to recruit Carney, but did not say if it’s to replace Freeland as finance minister
Tension rises between Freeland, PMO over economic messaging, low approval ratings
Robert Fife
Senior officials in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office are concerned that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has not been effective in delivering an upbeat economic message as the Liberal government struggles to reconnect with Canadians amid low approval ratings, sources say.
The relationship between Ms. Freeland, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister’s Office has become tense. She has been the most powerful minister in the government since Mr. Trudeau promoted her to the finance portfolio in August, 2020, after the resignation of Bill Morneau.
Under Mr. Trudeau, the PMO has centralized decision-making and holds a tight grip on government messaging from ministers, bureaucrats and Liberal MPs.

5 July
Montreal Liberal MP Anthony Housefather named to new role as antisemitism adviser
(G&M) Liberal MP Anthony Housefather says he is “looking forward to making a real difference” as the government’s new special adviser on Jewish community relations and antisemitism.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced his appointment to the role on Friday, saying Mr. Housefather will advise the Prime Minister and cabinet and work with the Jewish community.
Mr. Housefather, who is Jewish, has been outspoken about the rise in antisemitism in Canada since the current conflict between Israel and Hamas began in October.
The appointment comes four months after Mr. Housefather said he considered leaving the Liberal caucus, following an NDP motion on the Israel-Gaza war left him feeling intense anger and isolated within his party.

27 June-4 July
Two former Liberal ministers say Trudeau should resign following Toronto by-election loss
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing calls from two Chrétien-era Liberal cabinet ministers to step down as party leader, with the former MPs pointing to this week’s midtown Toronto by-election defeat as further evidence of a strong desire for change among Canadian voters.
Wayne Easter said in an interview Wednesday that Mr. Trudeau and his team of senior advisers in the Prime Minister’s Office need to make some hard decisions in light of the party’s surprise loss to the Conservatives in the former Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist of Nanos Research, said Mr. Trudeau’s brand is an “integral part” of the Liberal Party and that, “it’s hard to see knives coming out for him” for that reason.
“What’s clear, at least from the by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s, is that the country is in a mood for change. We know that in the polling numbers nationally and it’s been shown in the by-election in St. Paul’s.”
Mr. Nanos noted the Liberals put a lot of capital in to trying to win the riding and that “it wasn’t enough to hold on.”
2 July
Trudeau no longer going to Calgary Stampede, as some Liberal MPs call for his resignation
Mr. Trudeau usually makes an appearance in the Conservative Party’s heartland for the Stampede; and for the past two years the Prime Minister has attended his only Calgary MP’s Stampede breakfast. But George Chahal is among the Liberal MPs who signed a letter demanding a national in-person caucus meeting in the wake of the by-election loss – a request Mr. Trudeau’s office has declined to comment on.
1 July
Trudeau says he is ‘committed’ to staying as PM after byelection loss
(CBC) Justin Trudeau says Monday he is “committed” to staying on as prime minister after the Liberals’ shocking Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss exactly one week ago.
“There’s always going to be lots of reflection after a tough loss, but there’s also so much to do,” Trudeau told CBC’s Heather Hiscox, answering questions about his future for the first time since the upset.
28 June
Former Trudeau minister Catherine McKenna says Liberals need a new leader
McKenna is the first person who served in Trudeau’s cabinet to call on him to quit
“The Liberal Party isn’t about one person. It’s about the values it stands for and it’s about improving the lives of Canadians,” McKenna said in a media statement.
“The prime minister has a legacy to be proud of, but it’s time for new ideas, new energy and a new leader. There’s too much at stake in this election, especially on the economy and the climate.”

26 June
Liberals need to give their ‘heads a shake,’ minister says after byelection loss
Marc Miller, a personal friend of Trudeau, says PM should ‘absolutely stay on’ as leader
(CBC) Immigration Minister Marc Miller, a close personal friend of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said this week’s stunning Liberal byelection loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s should prompt some soul-searching within the party — but he maintains Trudeau is the one best placed to take on the Conservatives in the next election.
Kelly McParland: Trudeau refuses to listen to Canadians clamouring for him to leave
For her part, Freeland’s weary responses to questions reflected a politician who’d just been shocked by the glaringly obvious

24-25 June
Conservatives take Toronto-St. Paul’s riding in major upset for Liberals
(Globe & Mail) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were hit with a stunning upset in a Monday night by-election, losing a midtown Toronto riding the party had held for three decades and raising even more questions about the minority government’s prospects in next year’s general election.
Trudeau says he won’t quit after stunning byelection loss; says voters are ‘frustrated’
(National Post) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday he is taking his party’s unexpected loss in a Toronto byelection Monday as a clear sign of voters’ frustrations, but insisted he won’t be leaving the party leadership.
Byelection shocker: Is this the end of the road for Justin Trudeau’s political career?
Sam Routley, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western University
(The Conversation) The byelection’s results can be effectively interpreted as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership and the effectiveness of the Liberal administration he manages.
The byelection’s results can be effectively interpreted as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership and the effectiveness of the Liberal administration he manages.
… The reality is the Liberals have struggled to inspire public confidence when it comes to a range of economic and social problems that affect the day-to-day lives of Canadians, including those in cities: stagnating economic growth, unaffordable homes, inflation, a difficult cost-of-living environment, growing unemployment, open drug use and an increase in violent crime.
Trudeau’s unpopularity pertains not only to the government’s actual management of these issues, but the fact that the Liberals have been unable to articulate convincing reasons about why they should stay in power for the foreseeable future.
… All indicators suggest the Liberals are headed towards a generational seismic defeat, repeating their performances of 1958, 1984 and 2011. Canadian political history indicates that this isn’t the end of the line for the Liberal party itself but, rather, the low point of a cycle.
John Ibbitson: Regardless of leader, the Liberals are at risk of a worse fate after Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election
The shocking result in the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election leaves the Liberals with only one question: should they lose the next election with Justin Trudeau as leader, or should they lose it led by someone else?
After an excruciatingly slow vote count over Monday night and into Tuesday morning, Conservative candidate Don Stewart snatched from the Liberals what used to be one of their safest seats
Polls open in Toronto byelection that’s considered a crucial test for Trudeau
Even a marginal Liberal win could be troublesome for the prime minister: analysts
Voters go to the polls on Monday in the federal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s in a byelection some perceive as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government.
Former Liberal staffer Leslie Church is running to replace former Liberal MP and cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, who retired from politics after representing the riding for 26 years.
Church is up against Conservative candidate Don Stewart, a former Bay Street worker whose first foray into politics could be both dramatic and memorable if he flips the riding blue.
Must Trudeau go? Amid chatter of his ouster, potential Liberal replacements offer little room for party to recover
Potential Liberal voters say lack of progress on key issues holding them back more than Trudeau himself
(Angus Reid) As the ballots are counted from the byelection in Toronto-St. Paul’s – a contest that many believe is pivotal for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future at the helm of the Liberal party, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds jettisoning the unpopular prime minister may not do much to improve the party’s electoral fortunes.

17 June
The Agenda with Steve Paikin
Can Canada’s Unpopular Prime Minister Win Again?
(TVO) The biggest question in Ottawa these days is will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stay on to lead the Liberals into the next election, or is he simply too unpopular to win a fourth term? Author and journalist Paul Wells considers that and Trudeau’s nine years in power in his new book, “Justin Trudeau on the Ropes: Governing in Troubled Times.”

24 May
About those Mark Carney rumours…
A change of hood ornament isn’t enough to fix the Liberal Party’s broken engine.
Michelle Rempel Garner
Mr. Carney – a former central banker – is well-networked within Canada’s elite class. He has long let his name [be] floated as a potential successor to Mr. Trudeau. Over the last few years, the seriousness of his pursuit has waned and waxed with almost lunar regularity; one moment, he’s coyly in, and the next, he is firmly out. But this week, gossip about Carney’s potential elevation seems to have hit a new “I’m in” high tide, with multiple opinion pieces speculating about the gospel-like narrative many senior Liberals who view Mr. Carney as a saviour have been privately spreading for years.
However, the question that everyone should be asking is not whether Mr. Trudeau will quit or if Mr. Carney will take his place. Rather, does either of those things matter?

17 April
Dominic LeBlanc wants his close friend Justin Trudeau’s job
Lawrence Martin
…a problem Mr. LeBlanc would have: the shrapnel he’s been hit with for being so tightly associated with the Prime Minister and his policies. The cabinet minister advised him to prepare his own vision for the country and give party members a clear idea of why he wants to become prime minister.
Mr. LeBlanc is one of Mr. Trudeau’s most experienced and competent ministers. He’s witty, doesn’t take himself too seriously, and has a kitchen-table touch. The Maritimes are hardly a big political base, but as a francophone, he would have appeal in Quebec.
While there are many potential contenders, there is no front-runner in a possible race to replace the Prime Minister. Besides Mr. LeBlanc, other possible entrants are former central banker Mark Carney, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Treasury Board boss Anita Anand and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Each has strengths, but none are without handicaps. Mr. Champagne and Ms. Joly hail from Quebec; four of the last five party leaders – Mr. Trudeau, Stéphane Dion, Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien – have been from Quebec or, as in Mr. Martin’s case, represented Quebec ridings. Does the party want yet another Quebec leader?
Many Liberals feel the party has to turn the page from the Trudeau era and its wokeish leftish tilt. Mark Carney, a business Liberal, a man of international stature, is the one who fits that bill. But he has turned down opportunities to run for the party. No one has become Liberal Leader without ever having held elected political office.
It is high time that the Liberal Party had a woman as leader. Ms. Freeland’s barrier is that being Deputy PM, she’d be seen to offer little change. Ms. Anand, who is not a strong retail politician, has an independent mind and intellectual depth. But in 21st-century politics, being the smartest person in the room can be more of a hindrance than a help.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser, meanwhile, is young, telegenic, oratorically persuasive and is quickly learning French. He has that rare political gift of gravitational pull. But he’d be on the defensive for his time spent in the immigration portfolio, where he presided over a big increase of newcomers that has exacerbated the housing crisis he is now trying to rectify.
The lack of an heir apparent to Mr. Trudeau enhances Mr. LeBlanc’s chances in what promises to be – if Mr. Trudeau makes way for one – a rousing leadership race.