U.S. International relations and foreign policy April 2024-

Biden exits with a checkered foreign policy legacy
President Joe Biden’s international agenda, once underscored by confidence and bravura, found itself reacting to a rolling series of crises.
Ishaan Tharoor
When President Joe Biden took office four years ago, he and his allies cast their return as a restoration. America was “back” after the disruptions and uncertainties provoked by former president Donald Trump’s first term. The United States would lead again, Biden promised, and U.S. allies would be able to depend upon that leadership as Washington led the world out of the grips of the pandemic.
But with Trump returning to the White House next week, Biden’s tenure seems but an interregnum in an age of intensifying nationalism.

16 January
Trump is taking a victory lap on Gaza — and, yes, rightfully so
Max Boot: Biden is getting hostages out of Gaza. Can Trump finally end the war?
The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is a big step. Now it’s the Trump administration’s turn
(WaPo) Trump’s desire to get a deal done before he enters office strengthened Netanyahu’s hand within his own government and made him more likely to finally reach an agreement with Hamas. Trump has a lot of leverage over Netanyahu, who has close ties with the Republican Party, and he showed a willingness to use it.
… who will govern Gaza in the future remains murky. That is the subject of the second phase of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which are slated to start 16 days after the initial ceasefire deal.
Barring an agreement, the war could resume, sowing seeds of hatred on both sides that would be harvested for generations to come. If Trump can actually force a deal that paves the way for enduring peace in Gaza, rather than just a temporary ceasefire, he might well deserve the Nobel Peace Prize he is said to covet. But to do so, Trump will once again have to pressure Israel, not just Hamas.

Donald Trump will upend 80 years of American foreign policy
A superpower’s approach to the world is about to be turned on its head
Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-chief, The Economist
Donald Trump’s critics have often accused him of buffoonery and isolationism. But even before he has taken the oath of office, Mr Trump has shown how much those words fall short. He has helped secure a ceasefire in Gaza and shocked European politicians with a taboo-busting bid for control over Greenland. It’s already clear that the impact of Mr Trump’s second term on the rest of the world will be both more disruptive and more consequential than his first. Mr Trump is supplanting a vision of America’s role in the world that held sway since the second world war. Welcome, instead, to the Trump Doctrine.
Gone is the idea of America as the indispensable defender of democracy, settled borders and universal values. Mr Trump has little truck with alliances, multilateral rules or any other elements of what is often called the “post-war world order”. Instead the Trump Doctrine is based on the belief that American strength, wielded in unorthodox and opportunistic ways, is the key to peace and prosperity. This approach, simultaneously swaggering and unpredictable, transactional and norm-busting, will be tested in three conflicts: the Middle East, Ukraine and America’s cold war with China. In some places, such as the Middle East, it may prove surprisingly successful. But there are serious risks and worrying inconsistencies, especially over what the Trump Doctrine would mean for Taiwan. When the use of power is untethered from values, the result could be chaos on a global scale.

The Donroe Doctrine
Ian Bremmer: What Trump wants from Greenland, Canada, Panama … and more
In a G-Zero world, where no one country or group of countries is willing and able to provide global leadership, the law of the jungle prevails. And the law of the jungle says the apex predator gets to do whatever he can get away with, while others either get on board or become lunchmeat.
President-elect Donald Trump, just days away from taking over the world’s largest economy and most powerful military, spent the past week showing exactly what that will mean in practice. His threats to use economic and military coercion to take control of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal are outlandish, but they send a clear message to the world: In Trump’s second term, it’s his way or the highway.
Trump’s worldview represents a decisive rejection of America’s postwar commitment to global collective security, free trade, and democracy promotion in favor of transactionalism. The United States is increasingly adopting a rather Chinese approach to international relations: bilateral deal-making with little regard for common values, the rule of law, multilateralism, or the global public good. With the idea being that the world’s most powerful country will play that game more effectively than Beijing. It’s called “America First” for a reason.

13 January
C. Uday Bhaskar: Beyond US-China tussles, geopolitics will be shaped by India, Russia
As the global strategic framework moves on from the uneasy period of US hegemony and China’s rise, a critical quadrilateral is forming
(SCMP) An abiding policy focus since Donald Trump’s first presidential term in 2017-2021, the anxiety about Beijing has been reiterated in Joe Biden’s current tenure with all the early signals suggesting the policy will continue when Trump assumes office again on January 20.
With his many senior appointments announced being well-known China hawks, the concern about China is clearly recurring. This was more than evident when Trump recently attempted to re-stake America’s claim over the Panama Canal and urged Denmark to give up Greenland, invoking China as the trigger.
In the wide-ranging, rambling, headline-grabbing press conference at his private residence Mar-a-Lago in Florida on January 7, Trump accused China of controlling the Panama Canal and adversely affecting US national and economic security. In relation to Greenland, he cited Chinese and Russian activity in the region as degrading US national security.
Many of the assertions are counterfactual and have been refuted, but China’s threat to the US-led global order will be an abiding theme in Trump 2.0.

13 January
Marco Rubio’s first headache
(Politico) Among the first crises he’ll face — the political mess in Venezuela, a hemispheric problem spot that he’s already well-acquainted with.
Rubio’s Senate confirmation hearing Wednesday comes days after the inauguration of Nicolas Maduro [Venezuela’s Maduro takes new oath amid protests and international rebuke], the Venezuelan strongman who was sworn in Jan. 10 to serve a third six-year term. Maduro’s swearing-in came despite a months-long fight by the Venezuelan opposition, which claimed Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won the July 28 election in a landslide, according to their own voting tallies. Independent observers, including the Carter Center, have also raised doubts about the legitimacy of Maduro’s victory. The U.S. and several other countries have refused to recognize Maduro’s reelection.
As America’s top diplomat, Rubio will not need to be briefed on the state of play. His views were forged in Miami, which has its own foreign policy and serves as the de facto capital of Latin America. It is a Latino-dominated city of exiles, where political shake ups in Latin America can lead to the eruption of local protests.
Florida itself is home to the nation’s largest population of Venezuelan Americans.

8 January
Elon Musk’s attacks on Europe’s leaders and embrace of its far right signals to U.S. allies their relationship is set to change (subscription only)

7 January
Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine
If Ukraine falls, it will be hard to spin as anything but a debacle for the United States, and for its president.
By Robert Kagan
(The Atlantic) …if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power.if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.
This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power.
Foreign Leaders Face the Trump Test
His approach to global relations is already putting leaders in a difficult position.
By Lora Kelley
(The Atlantic) In a news conference today, President-Elect Donald Trump previewed his second-term approach to foreign policy. One theme was force: He didn’t rule out using the military to seize the Panama Canal or to acquire Greenland, and floated the idea of employing “economic force” to compel Canada to operate as an American state. Some of his ideas seem largely symbolic; at one point, he suggested renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. But these statements also fall into what my colleague David Frum has called a zero-sum attitude toward the rest of the world. Either a foreign country is with Donald Trump—and ready to collaborate with American interests—or it is against him.
Trump’s transactional outlook has put foreign leaders in a difficult position—including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation yesterday. Trump has threatened in recent months to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada, and he’s relished taunting the nation, repeatedly making comments about Canada joining the United States, including calling the prime minister “Governor Trudeau.” Almost immediately after Trudeau announced his decision yesterday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Canadian prime minister was stepping down because “many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State,” and suggested that Trudeau had resigned in direct response to the threat of tariffs.
As Trump eyes Greenland, Danish king makes it bigger on his coat of arms
Denmark’s royal household said the new insignia “strengthens the prominence” of the Commonwealth, including Greenland, as Donald Trump again proposes buying the island.
As Trump gets set for his second term, he is again promoting the idea of Greenland becoming part of the United States — even after Danish and Greenlandic officials dismissed the notion in the years since he first brought it up. His son Donald Trump Jr. is set to visit Greenland on Tuesday in what he described as a “very long personal day trip.”
The president-elect wrote Monday on Truth Social that his son “and various representatives” would travel to Greenland to “visit some of the most magnificent areas and sights.”
“Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation,” Trump said. “We will protect it, and cherish it, from a very vicious outside World.”
1 January
Konrad Yakabuski What Trump’s expansionist designs on Canada, Greenland and Panama all have in common
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has mused repeatedly in recent weeks about taking over the Panama Canal and Greenland, and even making Canada the 51st American state. And while most analysts have rejected his comments as unserious, there is more to Mr. Trump’s expansionist mutterings than merely a bad joke by a low-information leader who remains a Manhattan real estate developer at heart.
Mr. Trump has made no secret of his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, both of whom have sought to expand their countries’ spheres of influence in open defiance of the rules-based international order. Mr. Trump likely sees nothing wrong with trying to reassert U.S. authority in America’s own backyard.
As China and Russia increase their presence in the Arctic and in Latin America, the United States has legitimate national-security interests in wanting to curtail their military and commercial activities in these regions.
Mr. Trump may have a limited understanding of international law and little regard for the sovereignty of other countries. But in the cases of Greenland and the Panama Canal, at least, his musings should serve to focus much-needed attention on their strategic importance to the United States.

2024

23-25 December
‘Bad things can happen’: how will the world adjust to the Trump presidency?
Before he has taken a single executive decision, countries around the world are positioning themselves for his impact
(The Guardian) Already, from Ankara to Brussels to Tehran and Moscow, the whole world seems catalysed and in motion as countries seek answers to versions of that question. Without Trump taking a single executive decision, they are positioning, responding and adjusting to the long shadow he represents. Even Trump himself seems a little unnerved at what his return is unleashing. “The world seems to be going a little crazy now,” he recently admitted in Paris.
Amid the craziness, three distinct forms of response to Trump are starting to emerge.
An “ideologically aligned” group is emboldened, including populists in Europe, Latin America and Israel who believe their often Russia-friendly brand of nationalism will benefit from being in the slipstream of America First. The breakup of the European Union, an Argentina-style chainsaw taken to regulation, a new security architecture with Russia, regime change in Tehran: all become possibilities.
A second group, led by China, foresees a diplomatic shake-up in which America becomes an agent of instability, leading to some kind of globalised realignment. For Beijing – facing the threat of 50% tariffs – the silver lining is that Trump’s willingness to treat friends as foes may create a leadership vacuum that China, as the so-called advocate of “the global majority”, can exploit.
It is one version of the “alternative framework” of which Ikenberry speaks. Trump seems aware of that risk and is already threatening to impose 100% tariffs on the Brics countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates – if they try to replace the US dollar with another currency.
The third, more phlegmatic, group is made up of America’s “legacy partners” in Europe and the G7 group of liberal democracies. They still hope that with the right mix of argument, flattery and self-abnegation they can make a rational case that appeals to Trump’s self-interest.
Leaders of these nominal allies, however much they revile Trump’s methods, look at American power and feel they have no choice but to interact with him.
… Trump’s true existential threat to Europe lies in Ukraine. Without having revealed a detailed peace plan, Trump seems to want to threaten both sides – Vladimir Putin with rearmament in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy with withdrawal of support – to force an end to the war.
Major international crisis ‘much more likely’ in Trump’s second term, says his ex-national security adviser
John Bolton delivers scathing critique of Trump’s lack of knowledge or coherent strategy: ‘I’m very worried’
(The Guardian) A major international crisis is “much more likely” in Donald Trump’s second term given the president-elect’s “inability to focus” on foreign policy, a former US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) has warned.
John Bolton, who at 17 months was Trump’s longest serving national security adviser, delivered a scathing critique of his lack of knowledge, interest in facts or coherent strategy. He described Trump’s decision-making as driven by personal relationships and “neuron flashes” rather than a deep understanding of national interests.
Bolton also dismissed Trump’s claims during this year’s election campaign that only he could prevent a third world war while bringing a swift end to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
“It’s typical Trump: it’s all braggadocio,” Bolton told the Guardian. “The world is more dangerous than when he was president before. The only real crisis we had was Covid, which is a long term crisis and not against a particular foreign power but against a pandemic.
… Trump has repeatedly praised authoritarians such as Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and not ruled out withdrawing from Nato. Asked about Trump’s now notorious affinity with strongmen, the former national security adviser replied: “I suppose a shrink would have a better a better grasp of it but I think Trump likes being a big guy, likes other big guys. … In recent days, Trump has again rattled diplomats by threatening to take back the Panama Canal, calling for the US to buy Greenland and suggesting that Canada become the 51st state. Kim Darroch, who was Britain’s ambassador to Washington for four years from 2016, told Sky News that Trump’s second term will be “like a 24/7 bar-room brawl”.
Trump is teasing US expansion into Panama, Greenland and Canada
(CNN) President-elect Donald Trump appears to be entertaining an American territorial expansion that, if he’s serious, would rival the Louisiana Purchase or the deal that netted Alaska from Russia.
In the past week, he’s taunted Canadian officials by suggesting the US could absorb its northern neighbor and make it the 51st state. He threatened to take over the Panama Canal, the US-made waterway controlled for a quarter century by its Central American namesake. And on Sunday, he resurfaced his first-term desire to obtain Greenland, a Danish territory he has long eyed.
With Trump, the differences between serious policy proposals and rhetorical flourishes intended to stoke media attention or energize his base are not always clear. At other times, his provocations have appeared to be the opening salvos in his attempts at dealmaking.

18 December
Trump is going after Canada now – but everyone else is next
(CNN) Donald Trump is stoking political mayhem in Canada by intensifying a crisis that threatens to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The president-elect’s bullying of an embattled political foe, whom he mocks as the governor of the 51st state in an insult to America’s loyal northern neighbor, is a preview of a belligerent strategy as he scours the globe for big second-term wins before even taking office.
And his willingness to plunge into an ally’s domestic politics ought to be a warning to other strife-torn governments in places like France, Germany and South Korea, where political chaos and internal divides could make it hard to fight back.

3 December
Why is Joe Biden in Angola?
(GZERO media) With seven weeks left as US president, why was Joe Biden in Angola on Tuesday to meet with President João Lourenço? It’s the very first visit of a US president to this former Portuguese colony – now a player in global energy markets. More importantly, Biden was following through on a plan to compete more effectively with China across much of Africa. Via its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested heavily in sub-Saharan African infrastructure, and Biden has long argued that competing for those opportunities is good for America’s economy.
There’s also a security angle here. Angola isn’t just oil-rich; it has large reserves of copper and is home to large deposits of critical minerals, like the lithium and cobalt needed to make batteries for electric vehicles. That’s an arena of intense US-China competition
The main focus for Biden this week is his proposed 835-mile rail line to connect the cobalt, lithium, and copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the copper-belt region of Zambia with the Angolan port of Lobito on the Atlantic, from which these increasingly precious commodities can be exported to the US and Europe. Construction of the so-called Lobito Corridor is not yet underway.

1 December
Trump taps Lebanon-born Massad Boulos as Arab and Middle East adviser
Boulos is the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany and led campaign outreach to Arab and Muslim Americans.
Trump Names Charles Kushner as Pick for Ambassador to France
The announcement elevated Mr. Kushner, the father of President Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law and the recipient of a presidential pardon at the end of Mr. Trump’s first term.
(NYT) … While widely seen as one of the most prized ambassador positions, the role Mr. Kushner will be nominated for could be complicated by the at times standoffish position Mr. Trump took toward President Emmanuel Macron of France during his first term.
As president, Mr. Trump also expressed support for Mr. Macron’s far-right challenger in the 2017 French presidential election, Marine Le Pen, whose hard-line stance against immigration Mr. Trump praised.

15 November
Biden Discusses With Allies ‘Dangerous’ Cooperation Between Russia and North Korea
The president said stronger ties with South Korea and Japan are working, but did not address whether President-elect Donald J. Trump would continue his approach when he takes office in January.
President Biden expressed concern on Friday about what he called “dangerous and destabilizing cooperation” between North Korea and Russia, as he met with the leaders of South Korea and Japan at the global summit of Asia Pacific leaders in Peru.
In a joint statement, Mr. Biden, Shigeru Ishiba, the prime minister of Japan, and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, said they “strongly condemn” the cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including the decision by North Korea to send thousands of troops to Russia to help President Vladimir V. Putin in his war with Ukraine.

14 November
Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say
The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.

2 November
US election: How will results affect wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan?
Several wars raging around the globe could escalate or peter out based on the stance of the next US president.
(Al Jazeera) As leader of the foremost superpower and so-called “world police”, whoever sits in the United States White House – and the decisions they make – can have a huge effect on the course of conflicts around the world.
Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Sudan’s civil war have collectively seen hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. Those conflicts could worsen or end, based on Washington’s stance.

14 October
Brookings event:
The future of America’s international alliances and partnerships: What’s at stake in the 2024 election
The United States is at a critical juncture for its foreign policy. As U.S. policymakers confront long-term strategic competition with China, major wars in Europe and the Middle East are unfolding. How the next U.S. administration and Congress address these key challenges will define America’s global leadership role for decades to come. How should they navigate this complex landscape? Do existing foreign policy frameworks need reevaluation? Are the networks of alliances and partnerships delivering as intended? What military footprint best serves American interests in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?

8 October
A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and beyond
The Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project brought together a bipartisan, ideologically diverse group of experts and former senior officials to develop a holistic US policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran for the next four years, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. This report is the result of nearly two years of work by the project’s advisory committee, working group, contributors, and staff.
The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies.
Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously.
The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies.
The Diagnosis
The wild swings in US policy toward Iran over the last decade have directly helped speed Iran’s malign influence in the Middle East and significant progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Iran is a deeply ideological regime unlikely to change its fundamental outlook on the world. But the geostrategic context has changed over the last two decades: Iran’s foreign ties are now so bolstered and buoyed, particularly by China, that isolating Tehran is far more difficult than ever before. These circumstances demand a bipartisan, long-term strategy that can span administrations.
The weapons, capabilities, and finances of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s other proxies have benefited from sanctions evasion and weak enforcement, allowing Tehran to funnel probably hundreds of millions of dollars to its proxy militias. Illicit oil sales to China have earned the regime around eighty billion dollars.
Iran has advanced close to the nuclear-weapon threshold and has come to believe it can defy international warnings regarding its nuclear activities with impunity.

Heather Cox Richardson September 24, 2024
This morning, President Joe Biden spoke to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. …in his final speech before the body, Biden offered optimism.
– “Every age faces its challenges,” Biden said. “I saw it as a young man. I see it today. But we are stronger than we think. We’re stronger together than alone. And what the people call ‘impossible’ is just an illusion. [As] Nelson Mandela taught us…: ‘It always seems impossible until it’s done.’”
Ishaan Tharoor: Biden walks off the U.N. stage, leaving behind ‘purgatory’
In his last speech from the dais of the U.N. General Assembly, Biden highlighted his efforts to resolve the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Others remain skeptical.
Biden assumed the role of an elder statesman shuffling off the world stage, offering wisdom and perspective to the assembled heads of state. He wistfully summoned “the remarkable sweep of history” that he’s experienced during more than a half-century in political life — the bloodshed of the Vietnam War, the racism of South Africa’s apartheid regime, the fall of the Soviet Union, the turbulence that followed the attacks of 9/11. “Things can get better,” Biden said, urging his counterparts not to indulge in “despair” at the perilous state of global affairs. “Maybe because of all I’ve seen and all we have done together over the decades, I have hope.”
Biden to deliver final UNGA address at precarious moment for US and world
(GZERO media) Biden’s speech comes amid deepening political divisions in the US — just weeks ahead of a historic presidential election — and in the face of multiple major wars. The war in Gaza, and the tensions it’s fueling across the Middle East, will hang particularly heavy over Biden’s remarks.
Biden is also leaving office at a time when countries across the Global South are pointing to major double standards in terms of how the West — especially the US — approaches and upholds international values and norms. Critics of the US, for example, feel it has shown far more concern for civilians in the war in Ukraine than Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
A new report from the Munich Security Conference, which was discussed Monday at an event on the sidelines of UNGA, found that the US scored worst — alongside Russia, China, and European countries — among five out of nine countries surveyed on whether these actors treat countries like theirs with respect. To put it another way, there appears to be a growing perception in the Global South that Western countries like the US talk the talk when it comes to upholding international rules but don’t always walk the walk.

18 September
Ian Bremmer: How a second Trump term could reshape global politics
With less than 50 days to go until the US election and the former president now having near-even odds of taking back the White House, governments around the world are scrambling to work out what a second Trump term could mean for US foreign policy.
Two major regional wars, intensifying great-power competition with China, serious instability threatened by emboldened rogue actors like Russia and Iran, a sluggish global economy strained by structural supply chain shifts and 20-year-high interest rates, and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence will place entirely new demands on Trump’s leadership.
The more challenging and volatile geopolitical context means the stakes are much higher than they were in 2017 when Trump first took office. Combined with the former president’s immutable traits, this suggests that a second Trump term would likely deliver significantly more extreme foreign policy outcomes than his first term, the current Biden administration, and a Kamala Harris presidency.

22 August

Full Transcript of Kamala Harris’s Democratic Convention Speech
…we must also be steadfast in advancing our security and values abroad. As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances and engaged with our brave troops overseas. As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world. And I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice.
I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence. That America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could “do whatever the hell they want.”
I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence. That America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could “do whatever the hell they want.”
Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
With respect to the war in Gaza, President Biden and I are working around the clock, because now is the time to get a hostage deal and a cease-fire deal done.
And let me be clear. And let me be clear. I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself, and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself, because the people of Israel must never again face the horror that a terrorist organization called Hamas caused on Oct. 7, including unspeakable sexual violence and the massacre of young people at a music festival.
At the same time, what has happened in Gaza over the past 10 months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking.
President Biden and I are working to end this war, such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.
And know this: I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists. I will not cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un, who are rooting for Trump. Who are rooting for Trump.

Palestinians must have right of self-determination, says Kamala Harris
(The Telegraph UK) Kamala Harris pledged to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and chart a “new way forward” as president in her closing speech to the Democratic convention on Thursday night.

22 July
How Kamala Harris views the world: From Gaza and Russia to China and India
(Al Jazeera) US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to remain consistent with President Joe Biden’s policies on China, Ukraine and Gaza for the most part.
World leaders react to Biden dropping out of US election race
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Israeli President Isaac Herzog among those paying tribute to US president.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow was more focused on winning the war in Ukraine than the outcome of the US election.
“For us, reaching the goals of the special military operation [against Ukraine] is a priority, rather than the outcome of the US elections,” Peskov told state media.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he respected Biden’s decision and looked forward to working with him during the remainder of his presidency.
Canadian Prime Minister Justice Trudeau hailed Biden as a “great man” whose every action was “guided by his love for his country.”

18 June
A Foreign Policy for the World as It Is
Biden and the Search for a New American Strategy
By Ben Rhodes
(Foreign Affairs July/August 2024) “America is back.” In the early days of his presidency, Joe Biden repeated those words as a starting point for his foreign policy. … Biden’s initial pledge was a balm to many after Trump’s presidency ended in the dual catastrophes of COVID-19 and the January 6 insurrection. Yet two challenges largely beyond the Biden administration’s control shadowed the message of superpower restoration. First was the specter of Trump’s return. Allies watched nervously as the former president maintained his grip on the Republican Party and Washington remained mired in dysfunction. Autocratic adversaries, most notably Russian President Vladimir Putin, bet on Washington’s lack of staying power. New multilateral agreements akin to the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris agreement on climate change, or the Trans-Pacific Partnership were impossible, given the vertiginous swings in U.S. foreign policy.
Second, the old rules-based international order doesn’t really exist anymore. Sure, the laws, structures, and summits remain in place. But core institutions such as the UN Security Council and the World Trade Organization are tied in knots by disagreements among their members. Russia is committed to disrupting U.S.-fortified norms. China is committed to building its own alternative order. On trade and industrial policy, even Washington is moving away from core tenets of post–Cold War globalization. Regional powers such as Brazil, India, Turkey, and the Gulf states pick and choose which partner to plug into depending on the issue. Even the high-water mark for multilateral action in the Biden years—support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia—remains a largely Western initiative. As the old order unravels, these overlapping blocs are competing over what will replace it.
… If Biden does win a second term, he should use it to build on those of his policies that have accounted for shifting global realities, while pivoting away from the political considerations, maximalism, and Western-centric view that have caused his administration to make some of the same mistakes as its predecessors. The stakes are high. Whoever is president in the coming years will have to avoid global war, respond to the escalating climate crisis, and grapple with the rise of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Meeting the moment requires abandoning a mindset of American primacy and recognizing that the world will be a turbulent place for years to come. Above all, it requires building a bridge to the future—not the past.

11 June
Biden and Zelenskyy will sign a security deal, as G7 leaders agree to use Russian cash to help Kyiv
(AP) — President Joe Biden and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will sign a bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine on Thursday when they meet on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Italy.

5-6 June
Biden in Normandy says he prays Americans don’t become isolationists
In the first of his two addresses in France, Biden makes the case for international alliances.
(Politico) President Joe Biden on Thursday used the 80th anniversary of D-Day to warn against the spread of isolationism and to promise that the U.S. would “not walk away” from Ukraine.
Speaking before a crowd of aging WWII veterans, many over 100 years old and wheelchair bound, Biden pointed to the beaches of Normandy, where he spoke, as “a powerful illustration of how alliances make us stronger. It was, he remarked, “a lesson that I pray Americans never forget.”
Biden’s speech was a combination of somber reflections and calls for action. Standing alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and dozens of American veterans, Biden lauded the courage of World War II’s last living veterans while connecting their fight eight decades ago to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Noting that Ukranians who have fought invading Russian troops for the past two years, Biden touted the recent expansion of NATO and vowed never to back down to autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin. …
Macron, who spoke before Biden during the ceremony, described the “eternal bond” between the U.S. and France. “It’s a blood tie, shed for liberty,” he said,
Biden is set to attend a second, larger D-Day commemoration at Omaha Beach Thursday afternoon with a number of other world leaders, including Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is likely to be NATO’s next secretary general.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be among the guests. Biden and Zelenskyy are likely to meet briefly following the event where they are expected to briefly discuss the latest developments around Russia’s invasion and additional security guarantees and actions the U.S. and other allies may be able to take.
Biden will return to Normandy on Friday for a longer speech he plans to deliver at Pointe du Hoc, the legendary 100-foot cliff that Army rangers scaled during the D-Day invasion. The back-to-back speeches over two days here, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, are about “drawing a through line” from World War II through the Cold War to the present day.
Foreign policy becomes a liability for Biden’s campaign as he heads to France
Even Democrats are sounding alarms about foreign wars hurting Biden in November.
(Politico) As Biden begins a month of high stakes international meetings with a trip to France this week, two bloody wars in Ukraine and Gaza have complicated the president’s job and, polls show, contributed to the shakiness of his political standing at home.
“There is a sense of global chaos that will not be helpful to him” this fall, said Matt Duss, a former senior policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and an executive vice president at the Center for International Policy. “I think people have legitimate questions of, ‘Are we on the right track here?’”
Or as put by one longtime Democratic strategist, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly: “Foreign policy is a problem for Biden because it undermines the central tenet of his 2020 candidacy, when he said he would restore America abroad and return us to normalcy.”
Biden’s polling took a hit — and never recovered — after the the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, with 13 American service members killed by a suicide bomber. But after that debacle, Biden could still point to a string of foreign policy successes. By the midway point of his term, he had helped unify NATO allies following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and stymie President Vladimir Putin’s hopes for a quick and easy war.

30 May
Biden to mark D-Day anniversary with remarks in France
Biden will travel to Normandy on June 5 and give his remarks the next day. He then will participate in other engagements with first lady Jill Biden for the anniversary, which will include greeting American veterans and their family members to honor those who landed at Utah and Omaha beaches in Normandy in 1944.
The president celebrated the 79 anniversary of D-Day last year with a statement, saying the service members who served that day “represent the greatest generation in our history.”
On June 7, the president will deliver remarks at Pointe du Hoc, France, and then travel to Paris on June 8 for a state visit with French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte.
King Charles III is also planning to travel to France for British ceremonies to mark D-Day.
Biden’s engagement with foreign leaders is a break from his domestic travel to campaign ahead of November.
Biden to make state visit to France after D-Day 80th anniversary ceremonies
The US president and his wife Jill Biden will be hosted by Emmanuel Macron in Paris starting on June 8, after the commemorations in Normandy on June 6.
(Le Monde) President Emmanuel Macron will next week host Joe Biden for the US leader’s first state visit to France after both leaders attend commemorations for the World War II D-Day landings, the Elysée Palace said Thursday, May 30. Biden’s visit on June 8 for talks with Macron in Paris will come after the June 6 ceremony in Normandy marking 80 years since the D-Day landings. In a separate statement, the White House said Biden would be in France from June 5 to June 9.
Macron, Biden to discuss Ukraine, Middle East after marking D-Day
The state visit on June 8 will “reflect the enduring and comprehensive relationship between the United States and France, our oldest ally, founded on shared democratic values, economic ties, and defence and security cooperation.”
The two presidents will discuss a wide range of “global challenges” such as the Gaza war, Washington said.
Macron’s office said for its part that the two leaders would discuss “unfailing and long-term support” for Ukraine.

28 May
Blinken Travels to Eastern Europe as Russia Presses War in Ukraine
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken aims to show support for Moldova, which is under threat from Russia, and plans to attend a NATO meeting in the Czech Republic.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken plans to spend this week showing U.S. support for nations facing a hostile Russia in visits to Moldova and the Czech Republic, where he is scheduled to attend a meeting of NATO foreign ministers that will discuss how to bolster Ukraine.
Mr. Blinken, who made an overnight stop in Kyiv more than two weeks ago, flew into Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, on Wednesday to meet with Maia Sandu, the nation’s president, who is running for re-election. Ms. Sandu has advocated for Moldova to join the European Union, and she has scheduled a referendum vote on E.U. membership on the same day as the general election in October.

23 May
The Kenyan president’s landmark White House visit
On the diplomatic front, it was the first official state visit by an African leader to the White House since 2008.
(GZERO media)On the security front, President Joe Biden used the occasion to announce that his administration will work with Congress to designate Kenya as a “major non-NATO ally,” making the East African nation the 19th country to hold that status but the first in sub-Saharan Africa. This designation won’t require the US to defend Kenya if it falls under attack, as all NATO members are obligated by treaty to do on behalf of alliance partners, but it deepens strategic defense cooperation between the two and allows for jointly funded research and development projects.
On the technology front, Kenya is already home to a large concentration of startup tech companies. Biden and Ruto announced a partnership on semiconductor development on Thursday that could make Kenya the first country in Africa to receive funding from the so-called CHIPS Act, which subsidizes the production of cutting-edge computer chips. There will also be investment in AI and cybersecurity development.
Finally, on the geopolitical front, these agreements signal that the Biden administration recognizes the need to compete more aggressively with China, Russia, the UAE, Turkey, and others for trade, investment, and diplomatic opportunities in a resource-rich and increasingly innovative region of Africa.
Biden Honors Kenya as the East African Nation Prepares to Send Forces to Haiti
President Biden welcomed President William Ruto of Kenya and said he intended to designate his country as a “major non-NATO ally.”
(NYT) President Biden suggested on Thursday that the decision to have Kenya lead a security mission in Haiti, without troops from the United States on the ground, was meant to avoid the fraught history of American intervention in the deeply troubled country.
Mr. Biden said the United States would contribute money, logistical support and equipment as Kenya and other nations try to quell the gang violence that erupted there after the assassination of the country’s president in 2021. But in response to a question about why American troops will not participate, Mr. Biden alluded to previous U.S. interventions there.