Trump Tariffs & Trade 15 April-10 August 2025-

Trump Tariffs & Trade 2024- 14 April 2025

19 April
A group of top economists is circulating a letter that says Trump’s tariffs have ‘no basis in economic reality’
Dozens of leading economists and academics have taken issue with Trump’s tariff plan.
The economists, including two Nobel laureates, signed a declaration criticizing Trump’s trade war.
The signatories were especially critical of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
(Business Insider) In an “anti-tariff declaration” that as of Saturday afternoon had been signed by nearly 900 people, the writers warned that the timeline to undo the Trump administration’s “incoherent and damaging policies” on trade is narrowing.
“The proponents of tariffs portray these measures as acts of ‘economic liberation.’ Instead, tariffs invert the principles of liberty that ushered in an American-led age of human freedom and prosperity,” the letter reads.
“The current administration’s tariffs are motivated by a mistaken understanding of the economic conditions faced by ordinary Americans,” it continues. “We anticipate that American workers will incur the brunt of these misguided policies in the form of increased prices and the risk of a self-inflicted recession.”
Trade and Tariffs Declaration
A Statement on the Principles of American Prosperity

10 August
Tim Cook’s White House Visit Shows the True Cost of Tariffs
A lot of attention has been paid to the impact of import taxes on prices, but the real damage is what they will do to the overall economy.
(Bloomberg) Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook went to the White House last week to give President Donald Trump a large piece of gold. In exchange, Trump said that Apple would be exempt from a new 100% tariff the US is imposing on imported microchips. Officially, Apple gets the exemption because it committed to making a $100 billion investment in the US. Apple had already announced earlier this year a $500 billion investment program, which itself was a modest expansion of previous plans.
In a market economy with a functional democracy that protects free speech and enforces the rule of law, executives shouldn’t have to worry that tax policy will swing wildly based on who pleases or angers the president. But in Trump’s America, they do.

7 August
Staggering U.S. Tariffs Begin as Trump Widens Trade War
The duties, which the president announced last week, took effect for about 90 countries just after midnight.
(NYT) President Trump’s punishing new tariffs on about 90 countries snapped into place on Thursday, sending foreign leaders in some of the hardest-hit economies rushing to contain the damage and convince Washington to ease its escalating trade brinkmanship.
Few of America’s major trading partners were spared under the updated duties, which together sent the average effective U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in nearly a century. Despite the outcry, Mr. Trump remained ebullient as he heralded the higher rates as a lucrative political coup and his aides signaled even harsher duties could be on the horizon.
The president’s levies — which are expected to drive up prices for American consumers, and have spooked many businesses around the world — officially took effect just after midnight. They arrived one week after Mr. Trump signed a set of executive orders that raised rates and put into force the preliminary trade agreements that the administration had reached in recent days with the European Union and other countries.

Updated 6 August
Tracking Trump’s New Tariffs on Every Country
President Trump unveiled an updated slate of sweeping tariffs last week, targeting imports from dozens of U.S. trading partners, in a major escalation of a potentially damaging global trade war without parallel in modern history.
(NYT) For the most part, Mr. Trump’s duties will take effect on Aug. 7, capping off months of haggling, tinkering and delay. The president enacted the new rates through a series of executive orders, some of which reflect preliminary trade deals struck recently with countries that offered favorable concessions to the United States.
Together, the actions amount to an audacious gamble by the White House, which believes its policies can reset the world trading order, raise new federal revenue and pressure private businesses to make more of their products domestically.
But Mr. Trump’s campaign is only beginning — and whether he will succeed remains an open question with great consequence for the U.S. economy. The president’s trade brinkmanship has rattled financial markets around the world, and his tariffs threaten to raise prices on American consumers and businesses, who foot the bill for those duties when they import foreign goods
6 August
Trump says he will double tariffs on India as punishment for buying Russian oil.
President Trump announced on Wednesday that he would double tariffs on India, to 50 percent, beginning this month as punishment for the country’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
Mr. Trump coupled the new, punishing tariff level with a threat to impose similar penalties on other countries that buy Russian energy as he sought to use trade policies to pressure the Kremlin into resolving the war in Ukraine.
Switzerland Is Stunned by 39% U.S. Tariff, Among the Highest in the World
Swiss officials plan to negotiate urgently for a lower rate, before the punishing levy takes effect next week.

1 August
Trump’s tariffs are already changing global trade
Ian Bremmer
The Trump administration is imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike—15% on the EU, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India. America has become the main driver of global economic uncertainty and increasingly seen as an unreliable trade partner. So what can countries do? They adapt. If they can’t trade through Washington, they’ll try trading around it.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the new global trade map as allies negotiate their own alliances in ways that make them less vulnerable to US chaos. The biggest power play is coming from the EU, which is pitching itself as a steadfast trade partner—reinforcing ties with the UK, Latin America, and Asia, and even floating the idea of an EU-led alternative to the WTO. The US economy is still the largest in the world, it won’t be excluded from global trade entirely. But global supply chains are sticky, and new trade relationships could long outlast Trump’s presidency. As America walks away from 80 years of economic leadership, does it risk being left behind?

Why Trump’s tariffs are in trouble
By Jason Willick
The legality of Trump’s manic trade policies will be a question for the Supreme Court.
(WaPo) Trump’s claim to virtually unlimited tariffing power comes from the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The IEEPA is a sanctions and embargo law that doesn’t even mention tariffs. No president invoked it to impose tariffs for 48 years after its passage, until Trump did so this year. The Constitution says Congress, not the president, has the power to “lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises,” and “regulate Commerce with foreign Nations.”
Trump’s tariffs are doing just what his critics feared
Brutal job and inflation reports have the president firing the messenger. But the message is clear.
The latest economic numbers have come at an awkward time for the Trump administration. It has spent weeks touting a strong economy and proclaiming victory over inflation. It has savaged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell (a “moron”) for continuing the fight against it. The administration has also maintained that the economy vindicates President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Vice President JD Vance says predictions of tariff-induced inflation have proved so wrong as to cast doubt on the economics profession.
Free traders are now due for some retaliatory gloating. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that last month, one measure of prices — personal consumption expenditures, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy — rose at a higher than 3 percent annual rate. That’s the measure that Powell and his colleagues monitor most closely, and they want it at 2 percent. The number has now risen three months in a row. One day later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job growth has been much weaker than previously thought.

31 July

Trump Boosts Tariffs Across World, Reshaping Global Commerce

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump unveiled a slew of new tariffs that boosted the average US rate on goods from across the world, forging ahead with his turbulent effort to reshape international commerce.
The baseline rates for many trading partners remain unchanged at 10% from the duties Trump imposed in April, easing the worst fears of investors after the president had previously said they could double. Yet his move to raise tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% threatens to inject fresh tensions into an already strained relationship, while countries like Switzerland and New Zealand also saw increased rates.
Taken together, the result will be higher tariffs on goods from almost all US trading partners. The average US tariff rate will rise
to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, according to Bloomberg Economics, up from 13.3% earlier — and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before Trump took office.
Most of the tariffs will take effect after midnight on Aug. 7, to allow time for US Customs and Border Protection to make necessary changes to collect the levies. Trump signed the directive just hours before his prior Aug. 1 deadline for higher tariffs to kick in on scores of trading partners.

27 July
US and EU clinch trade deal to avert prohibitive US tariffs, Trump says
(Reuters) – The United States has struck a framework trade deal with Europe, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday, averting a spiralling row between two allies who account for almost a third of global trade.
The deal, that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. and significant EU purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment, will bring welcome clarity for EU companies.
However, the baseline tariff of 15% will be seen by many in Europe as a poor outcome compared to the initial European ambition of a zero-for-zero tariff deal, although it is better than the threatened 30% rate.
The announcement came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Scotland for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump to push a hard-fought deal over the line.
Trump, who is seeking to reorder the global economy and reduce decades-old U.S. trade deficits, has so far reeled in agreements with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam, although his administration has failed to deliver on a promise of “90 deals in 90 days.”
Trump has periodically railed against the European Union saying it was “formed to screw the United States” on trade.
His main bugbear is the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with the EU, which in 2024 reached $235 billion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The EU points to the U.S. surplus in services, which it says partially redresses the balance.
Reaction to US and EU trade deal

26 July
Tell Me How This Trade War Ends
The Right Way to Build a New Global Economic Order
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz
(Foreign Affairs) Trump’s approach to trade “has been needlessly chaotic, yet there is a kernel of truth in the president’s insistence that the international trade system needs a reset.” The United States must “build a new set of rules and norms that facilitate integration among like-minded states and that disentangle them from adversarial ones, especially China.” Trump’s methods “may not be pretty,” but they “could open the way for a much better system.”
Trump’s trade deals and tariffs are on the chopping block in court. What happens next
A federal appeals court will soon hear oral arguments in a high-profile lawsuit challenging Trump’s authority to impose sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs.
The case is the furthest along of more than half a dozen federal cases targeting Trump’s imposition of tariffs using an emergency-powers law known as IEEPA.
Piper Sandler analysts said Trump will “probably continue to lose in the lower courts” and at the Supreme Court, rendering his recent trade deals “illegal.”

25-26 July
Trump tells Europe to ‘get your act together’ on immigration before US-EU trade talks
Ursula von der Leyen will meet with US president on Sunday, who describes ‘20 sticking points’ in negotiations
The US is nearing a trade deal with Europe. Will Trump stand in the way?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet with President Donald Trump this weekend in Scotland to discuss trade.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is flying to Scotland to meet directly with President Donald Trump on Sunday, in a sign that a trade deal with America’s largest trading partner is within sight.
But European diplomats aren’t counting on a deal until it is officially rolled out, after being burned before by Trump’s penchant for last-minute reversals.

25 July
Thinking the Unthinkable in Trump’s Trade War
By Fen Osler Hampson, Tim Sargent and John Weekes
(Policy) President Donald Trump’s 15% tariff deal with Japan has laid bare the utter chaos of Washington’s tariff war. The big three automakers—General Motors, Ford and Stellantis—which have already taken a big hit from Trump’s 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico are crying foul, saying that that the agreement puts them at a competitive disadvantage against Japanese automakers, which it clearly does. …
So, what’s the game plan? It should be pretty clear from Trump’s statements and those of his senior officials that the goal is to bring both auto and high-value auto parts manufacturing back to the US, even if that means shutting down plants in Canada and Mexico, destroying the integrated value chains that have lowered costs for American consumers and made North American production highly efficient to the shared advantage of all three countries.
However, this is not the only concern we face. Canada’s supply management system for dairy and poultry remains a significant and longstanding point of bilateral contention, predating Donald Trump’s second term. Bill C-282, which enjoys support from all political parties, removes supply management from the scope of trade negotiations.
There is a real and understandable worry in Western Canada that if Ottawa refuses to reduce tariffs and increase quotas in dairy and poultry due to the restrictions in Bill C-282, exports of beef, grains (wheat, canola, barley), and other agricultural products might suffer as a direct consequence of US retaliation.

24 July
Trump’s Self-Defeating Trade Agenda
Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund
US President Donald Trump claims that his chaotic trade policies will bring back manufacturing jobs, boost government revenue, and strengthen national security. In reality, they are far more likely to stifle investment and trade, hurt exports, and breed cronyism and corruption.
Six months into his second presidency, it is abundantly clear that there is no coherent rationale behind Trump’s tariffs. They are costly and haphazard, undermining economic growth and turning the free market that once drove US productivity into a breeding ground for rent-seeking and corruption.
(Project Syndicate) … The Trump administration has cited a wide range of reasons for its tariff hikes beyond reducing bilateral trade deficits, including national security, job creation, and raising government revenue. Trump and his advisers claim that other countries will be forced to negotiate and ultimately lower their own tariffs on US goods. But the recent deal between the US and the United Kingdom, which imposes a 10% levy on most British exports, shows that even Trump’s “reduced” tariffs remain historically high. The unpredictability of Trump’s trade policies poses a grave threat to the global economy. Trump’s tariff announcements have been followed by numerous delays and revisions, and his deadlines for finalizing new trade deals have come and gone, only to be extended again. This erratic trade policy, combined with his apparent reluctance to follow through on his threats, has given rise to the nickname “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
So far, the Trump administration has secured new trade agreements with only a handful of countries, and even those have come with unexpected conditions. Earlier this month, for example, Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports, but only if Vietnam eliminates its own tariffs on US goods and its exports contain no Chinese components; otherwise, the rate jumps to 40%. While that’s lower than Trump’s original rate of 46%, it’s still far higher than the 11% that Vietnamese policymakers – caught off guard by his announcement – reportedly believed they had negotiated. Indonesia, for its part, accepted a 19% tariff in exchange for granting most US goods duty-free access to its domestic market. So much for fairness and reciprocity.

23 July
EU prepares €100bn no-deal plan to match Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs
If agreed by member states, levies on US goods from aircraft to whiskey could be imposed from 7 August
(The Guardian) The EU has threatened to impose nearly €100bn (£87bn) worth of tariffs on US imports ranging from bourbon whiskey to Boeing aircraft in one fell swoop if Donald Trump does not agree a trade deal by the end of next week.
The European Commission said on Wednesday it planned to combine two previously prepared lists of US goods to be included in any retaliatory moves against the US president’s border taxes.
If Brussels follows through on the threat, it would mean tariffs would be imposed on US imports to the EU from the the first €21bn list, which includespoultry and alcohol, as well as the more recent list of €72bn of goods, which features cars and planes.
U.S.-Japan trade deal averts worst for global economy
(Bloomberg/Reuters) Japan’s trade agreement with the U.S. could serve as the benchmark for many other deals currently being negotiated with Washington, and the global economy could just about support the 15 per cent level agreed overnight, economists said.
Tokyo’s deal with the U.S. lowers tariffs on auto imports to 15 per cent from levies totalling 27.5 per cent previously. Duties that were due to come into effect on other Japanese goods from August 1 will also be cut to 15 per cent from 25 per cent.
The deal with the world’s fourth-largest economy, which includes commitments for U.S.-bound investment and loans, is the most significant of a clutch of pacts U.S. President Donald Trump has concluded to date. It raises pressure on China and the European Union, which both face crucial August deadlines.
Trump announces trade agreement with the Philippines and terms of deal with Indonesia
(CNN) President Donald Trump said Tuesday he and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines have reached a trade agreement. Shortly after, he also revealed more detailed terms of an agreement with Indonesia.
Both agreements call for 19% tariffs on goods the US imports from the two countries, paid by American businesses, while American goods shipped there won’t be charged a tariff.
Trump’s announcement of the agreement with the Philippines came after he met with Marcos at the White House on Tuesday. … However, it was not immediately apparent if the two leaders formally signed anything. Similar to other recent trade announcements, few details were initially revealed.
Marcos is the first Southeast Asian leader to meet Trump in his second term, and the agreement with the Philippines marks the fifth struck over the past three months, as countries try to negotiate lower tariffs before the August 1 deadline. No new details have come to light on the agreement Trump announced with Vietnam earlier this month. Administration officials have not revealed why that’s the case.
Trump announces US-Japan trade deal
(CNN) President Donald Trump announced a long-awaited trade agreement with Japan on Tuesday night, a framework between the allies and major trading partners that appeared elusive just weeks ago
Vietnam Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting Up to a Third of US Exports
(Bloomberg) Vietnam estimates its exports to the US could decline by as much as a third if higher tariffs announced by President Donald Trump take effect, an internal government assessment shows.
Tariffs of 20% to 40% would slash export revenue by up to $37 billion, and hit the majority of Vietnam’s key industries, including electronics, machinery, garments, footwear and furniture, according to a document prepared for Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh‘s advisory council and seen by Bloomberg News.

16 July
Europe Lines Up Behind Powerful Trade Tool in US Fight
(Bloomberg) If Donald Trump follows through on his latest deadline when it comes to tariffs, a growing number of European Union member states want the bloc to activate its most powerful trade tool against the US. Trump has repeatedly delayed his threatened levies, a pattern of behavior that’s generated the now-famous TACO meme. Now he has pledged to impose 30% tariffs on the EU if no deal is reached by Aug. 1. And this time, his aides have said, he means it.
France Adds Support for Using Most-Potent Trade Tool on US
A growing number of European Union member states want the bloc to activate its anti-coercion instrument against the US if an acceptable agreement is not reached by Aug. 1 and Donald Trump imposes 30% tariffs.
The anti-coercion instrument gives officials broad powers to take retaliatory action, including new taxes on US tech giants, targeted curbs on US investments, and limiting access to the EU market.
EU Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for further talks with his US counterparts, with the commission preferring to keep negotiations on track and find a negotiated outcome to the impasse.

14 July
To Whom it May Concern: Trump’s tariff letters, annotated
(AP) Ninety trade deals in 90 days didn’t happen early in President Donald Trump’s second term. “Liberation Day” panicked the financial markets in April. And bespoke trade agreements with dozens of countries, he has said, takes too much time. “There’s 200 countries,’’ the president acknowledged. “You can’t talk to all of them.’’
So Trump repackaged his plan to slap tariffs on almost every nation in a series of unusual presidential letters to foreign leaders that set new thresholds not just for trade negotiations — but also for diplomatic style, tone and delivery. Most are fill-in-the-blank form letters that include leaders’ names and a tariff rate. Words are capitalized using Trump’s distinct social media style. A few typos and formatting issues appear throughout.
They generally include an opening flourish of salutation, a grievance, the threat of a big jump in tariffs, a new deadline and an escape ramp allowing that “we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter” if certain conditions are met. Rather than typical diplomatic talk of things like enduring mutual respect, Trump closes with, “Thank you for your attention to this matter!” and “Best wishes,” followed by his signature of three long strokes linked by and about 14 short ones.
He appears to have paid special attention to his letters to Canada, with which he’s been fighting and taunting for months, and Brazil, which he singled out for 50% tariffs apparently based on a personal grudge rather than economics.

11 July
As Trump Sows Tariff Confusion, Rules of Global Commerce Give Way to Chaos
Blunt letters dictating terms posted to social media and changes late in negotiations have left trading partners wondering what President Trump will do next.
By Jeanna Smialek, Reporting from Brussels
(NYT) Six months into his new administration, Mr. Trump’s assault on global trade has lost any semblance of organization or structure.
He has changed deadlines suddenly. He has blown up negotiations at the 11th hour, often raising unexpected issues. He has tied his tariffs to complaints that have nothing to do with trade, like Brazil’s treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, or the flow of fentanyl from Canada.
Talks with the United States were like “going through a labyrinth” and arriving “back to Square 1,” said Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian minister for economic affairs, who met with U.S. officials in Washington on Wednesday.
The resulting uncertainty is preventing companies and countries from making plans as the rules of global commerce give way to a state of chaos.
Gone is the idea that the White House would strike 90 deals in 90 days after a period of rapid-fire negotiation, as Mr. Trump pledged in April. Instead, Washington has signed bare-bone agreements with big trading partners including China, while sending many other countries blunt and mostly standardized letters announcing hefty tariffs to start on Aug. 1.

9-10 July
Trump’s 50% Levy on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits
(Bloomberg) Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil over its domestic political affairs, the most extreme case yet of the US president weaponizing trade policy to make unrelated demands.
Trump cited the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro — a right-wing populist leader — in his letter to Brazil on Wednesday, calling on authorities to drop charges against him over an alleged coup attempt.
America cannot dodge the consequences of rising tariffs forever
Their economic impact has been delayed but not averted
(The Economist) THREE MONTHS ago a tariff announcement by Donald Trump caused a market meltdown. More recently his proclamations have elicited a shrug. On July 7th America’s president published letters he had sent to 14 countries threatening “reciprocal” tariffs to be introduced by August 1st, including levies of 25% on Japan and South Korea. The next day he said he would impose a 50% charge on copper and, after a possible year and a half’s notice, up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. Yet although the copper price soared, equity and bond markets seem unaffected. Panic has given way to placidity.
Trump hits Iraq with 30% tariffs as he releases 7 new letters
President Donald Trump sent out tariff letters to seven smaller U.S. trading partners on Wednesday with a pledge to announce import taxes on other countries later in the day.
None of the countries targeted in the first batch of letters — the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka — is a major industrial rival to the United States. It’s a sign that a president who has openly expressed his love for the word “tariff” is still infatuated with the idea that taxing trade will create prosperity for America.
Donald Trump threatens copper, pharma tariffs: Who will they hurt?
US president announces sweeping new tariffs as he continues to change plans.
The idea is to bring copper home, bring copper production home, bring the ability to make copper, which is key to the industrial sector, back home to America,” Lutnick added.
Trump also indicated that he would apply a tariff as high as 200 percent on foreign-made medicines in about a year’s time. “We’re going to give people about a year, year and a half to come in, and after that they’re gonna be tariffed if they have to bring the pharmaceuticals into the country at a very high rate, like 200 percent,” he said.
Finally, he warned there would be “no extensions” on the August 1 deadline when “reciprocal” country tariffs kick in, having delayed that from July 9 on Monday. …
How reliant is the US on copper imports and who will tariffs hurt?
Very. The US produces only just over half the refined copper it consumes each year. The remaining amount, just shy of one million tonnes, is imported.
More than two-thirds of American copper is mined in Arizona, where the development of a massive new mine has been delayed for more than a decade because of environmental concerns.
While Trump has consistently framed his metals tariffs as a way to counter China’s dominance of the global market, the US, in fact, imports most of its refined copper from the Americas.
Europe Waits, and Hopes, for a Trade Deal
The European Union is still hoping for a rough outline of a deal, even after President Trump talked about sending the bloc a letter outlining tariffs that would be imposed Aug. 1.

7 July
What Trump Trade Policy Has Achieved Since ‘Liberation Day’
(CFR) President Donald Trump announced on April 2, so-called Liberation Day, that his administration would impose an expansive new slate of tariffs on about sixty countries or trading blocs that held a high trade deficit with the United States—laying out the most significant U.S. tariff increase in nearly a century.
While the administration announced a week later that these tariffs would be paused for ninety days (apart from a 10 percent base rate) to allow time for negotiations, the tariff strategy has shaken financial markets and U.S. trade relationships.
It also has had major implications for five trade policy objectives that the administration has at various times cited for the tariffs: 1) returning manufacturing to the United States, 2) reducing U.S. trade deficits, 3) addressing unfair trade practices, 4) protecting national security, and 5) raising revenue.
Deals made by Trump since pausing his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs remain sparse
(AP) — Just over three months ago, President Donald Trump unveiled his most sweeping volley of tariffs yet — holding up large charts from the White House Rose Garden to outline new import taxes that the U.S. would soon slap on goods from nearly every country in the world.
But in line with much of Trump’s on-again, off-again trade policy playbook, the bulk of those “Liberation Day” levies were postponed just hours after they took effect in April. The 90-day suspension arrived in an apparent effort to quell global market panic and facilitate country-by-country negotiations.
At that time, the administration set a lofty goal of reaching 90 trade deals in 90 days. Since then, however, the U.S. has only announced pacts with the United Kingdom and Vietnam — as well as a “framework″ agreement with China in a separate trade dispute.

2 July
EU splits weaken its hand in crunch trade talks with Trump
(Politico Pro) European capitals are pulling in different directions ahead of a decisive round of trade talks in Washington.
— The European Union is striving to project unity as it races to negotiate a high-stakes trade deal with Washington, but backstage, national divisions threaten to weaken its negotiating hand. “Nobody in Europe wants to escalate,” European Council President António Costa said last weekend. “Nobody wants a conflict.“
That’s also a message EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will be keen to convey as he meets with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday for a potentially decisive round of talks.
Away from the diplomatic dance, however, EU countries don’t always see eye-to-eye on how best to deal with the White House. And as so often, the diversity of views held by the bloc’s 27 national leaders — all catering to domestic interest groups and voters — is making it difficult for Šefčovič to drive a hard bargain.

4 July
White House to Start Notifying Countries About Tariffs, Trump Says
After striking only a few trade deals since declaring a 90-day pause in April, President Trump said he would announce new duties starting Friday.
President Trump said early Friday morning that he is set to resume a set of tariffs that he initially imposed in April on dozens of countries, before pausing them for 90 days to negotiate individual deals.
Most of those deals have yet to materialize, and businesses in the United States have been left guessing what levies they would be expected to pay on virtually every imported product.

3 July
Trump Wants the World to Squeeze Out China. He’s Starting With Vietnam.
An initial trade deal with Vietnam offers a glimpse of how President Trump is pushing countries to cut back on trade with China.
(NYT) A preliminary trade pact between Vietnam and the United States announced on Wednesday is the most significant step so far toward that goal. Although the details are sparse, Vietnamese exports to the United States will face a 20 percent tariff, less than a much higher rate that Mr. Trump had threatened.
But notably, the deal would put a 40 percent tariff on any export from Vietnam classified as a transshipment, or goods that originated in another country and were merely passed through Vietnam.
The penalty aims at China, which has used Vietnam and neighboring countries to circumvent American tariffs on its goods.

2 July
Analysis shows Trump’s tariffs would cost US employers $82.3 billion
(AP) — An analysis finds a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could potentially be managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.
The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category including roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.
The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.

30 June
Global tariffs could rise despite ‘good faith’ trade talks, U.S. says
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9 even if they are negotiating in good faith, adding that any potential extensions will be up to President Donald Trump.
Bessent, who earlier floated the idea of negotiating extensions, told Bloomberg Television that he expects there to be “a flurry” of trade deals leading up to the July 9 deadline, after which 10 per cent U.S. tariff rates on goods from many countries are set to snap back to Trump’s April 2 announced rates of 11 per cent to 50 per cent.

28 June
Trump turns trade talks into foreign policy wish list
The president is pressing foreign leaders on everything from military budgets to antitrust laws — all under the banner of trade.
(Politico) President Donald Trump’s trade talks aren’t just about trade. They’re about tech regulation, defense spending, critical minerals — even war and peace.
Since slapping sweeping tariffs on nearly every country in April, Trump has turned narrow, trade-focused talks into kitchen-sink diplomatic forums. In closed-door negotiations, the president’s top lieutenants have pressured foreign governments to significantly increase their military budgets, upend their tax systems and scuttle domestic legislation that could hurt U.S. businesses. The president has even leveraged U.S.-brokered ceasefires, such as the one between Israel and Iran, to induce other countries to buy more American goods
It’s part of a broader effort by Trump to use tariffs not only as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing and revenue, but as a lever to extract concessions on a host of unrelated issues.
“Access to the American market should cost you. Additional tariffs or additional levies — of course it makes sense to tie it to foreign policy. Why wouldn’t we?” said former Trump adviser Steve Cortes.

4 June
Trump doubles tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising ire of Canada and Mexico
(Axios) State of play: The U.K. is not a leading exporter of the metals to the U.S., but Reuters notes that Canada exports the most steel by shipment volumes to the U.S. followed by Mexico.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said in a Tuesday media statement that his government was “engaged in intensive and live negotiations” for the removal of the tariffs, which it described as “unlawful and unjustified.”
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said during a Tuesday event that he’d seek an exemption for the country from the tariffs that he called “not fair” and “unsustainable,” per multiple reports.
The EC official said the commission was “finalizing consultations on expanded countermeasures” and if no resolution was reached “both existing and additional EU measures will automatically take effect” on July 14 or earlier, “if circumstances require.”
What we’re watching: While Trump campaigned on using tariffs to boost the economy and revive the domestic industry, he has so far mostly pulled back on imposing hefty levies.
See: Trump’s perplexing tariffs goals – 4 February

30 May
This TACO Gives Trump Indigestion, So Watch Out
The acronym — Trump Always Chickens Out — bruises the president’s ego and invites a chaotic response, mostly because it’s on the money.
(Bloomberg) …it also may be wise to consider this TACO-fueled moment as something other than a lighthearted interlude in an otherwise tragicomic policy miasma. Trump protects and prioritizes how his various audiences perceive him. A Trump eager to prove he’s not a chicken is a Trump willing to inflict economic, social or political damage in the service of his ego and self-image (also a recurring feature of his earlier but less consequential passage as a real estate developer and casino operator). Dangers loom.
Whiplash rulings on Trump’s tariffs could impact global trade talks
The legal confusion over tariffs has buffeted U.S. trading partners around the world, casting doubt on the durability of Trump’s favorite bargaining tool.
Dana Milbank: The bully gets punched in the nose
More and more Americans are summoning the courage to fight back against President Donald Trump.
… On “Liberation Day” two months ago, Trump unveiled the core of his economic plan: a massive increase in tariffs on most of the world. But he has since staged several retreats and surrenders in his trade war, and on Wednesday evening, about an hour before Musk called it quits, a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade axed most of the remaining tariffs; that and a second ruling invalidating the tariffs are on hold pending appeals. The judges — two of them Republican-appointed, and one a Trump appointee — said Trump had usurped congressional power to levy tariffs.

Heather Cox Richardson: Letters from an American May 28, 2025
Judges continue to decide cases against Trump, with a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade ruling today that President Donald J. Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal.
… Tariffs were in the news today in another way, too, as Wall Street analysts have begun to talk of “TACO trade” short for “Trump always chickens out.” The phrase was coined earlier this month by Robert Armstrong of Financial Times and refers to Trump’s habit of threatening extraordinarily high tariffs and then backing down. Armstrong noted that investors have figured out that they can buy stocks cheaply immediately after Trump’s initial tariff announcement and then sell higher when stocks rebound after he changes his mind.
Trump’s Global Tariffs Deemed Illegal, Blocked by Trade Court
(Bloomberg) The vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court, dealing a major blow to a pillar of his economic agenda.
A panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan issued a unanimous ruling Wednesday which sided with Democratic-led states and small businesses that accused Trump of wrongfully invoking an emergency law to justify the bulk of his levies. The court gave the administration 10 days to “effectuate” its order, but didn’t spell out any steps it must take to unwind the tariffs.

23 May
Trade talks bog down as countries — and White House — race to meet July deadline
(Politico) President Donald Trump promised that his administration would be able to make quick trade deals with more than 50 trading partners. But halfway into his self-imposed deadline, talks have gotten bogged down.
After reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the United Kingdom earlier this month to lower some tariffs on both sides, the White House continues to tout progress in its negotiations with more than a dozen other major trading partners.
But according to conversations with ten foreign officials, U.S. business leaders and others familiar with the talks, disagreements are mounting in many of those talks and foreign governments are digging in, even those eager to cut deals, like some in Asia — a reminder of just how slow and complex traditional trade negotiations can be. Trump and other top officials have recently begun acknowledging that reality out loud, suggesting they will have to set new tariff rates on many countries when they hit the July 9 date for their so-called reciprocal tariffs to kick back in.
They’ve been vague, however, about what may happen if deals are not reached. Trump has promised that he would send out new tariff numbers, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested over the weekend that the White House could establish regional tariff rates, or snap back to the higher April 2 rates for countries that are not negotiating “in good faith.” The lack of a clear path forward is likely to prolong the economic uncertainty spurred by the administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy, which has bogged down consumer sentiment, business investments and economic growth.

12-13 May
The case that could blow up Trump’s tariff plan
(Politico) …today, a three-judge panel on the court held the first oral argument in the cases challenging the legal basis for the Trump administration’s tariff framework, moving closer to a decision that could have major consequences for the American political system and the global economy.
The case is one of at least seven to date that have been filed to try to nullify Trump’s tariffs. Thus far, these lawsuits have attracted the support of groups across the political spectrum, including some prominent conservatives and former Republican government officials, more than 100 Democratic members of Congress, the libertarian Cato Institute and the liberal Brennan Center for Justice.
How Trump’s trade war could end by June
The challengers say the president is violating the Constitution and hope the Court of International Trade will grant their request for a preliminary injunction before the end of the month.
It’s up to the U.S. Court of International Trade, an obscure, New York-based federal court that decides cases related to trade and customs law. The court is hearing oral arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping new tariffs last month, before suspending the highest ones on about 60 trading partners for 90 days. If the court grants the plaintiffs’ request for an emergency injunction it could upend the trade negotiations the Trump administration is now racing to complete with dozens of countries.
The tariffs’ challengers say Trump is violating the Constitution and hope the Court of International Trade will grant their request for a preliminary injunction before the end of the month.
That’s vital because many businesses may not survive if the tariffs remain in place while the case is litigated potentially all the way to the Supreme Court, said Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel at the Liberty Justice Center, a conservative constitutional rights group representing VOS Selections, a New York-based wine and spirits company, and other small businesses suing over Trump’s tariffs.
An injunction would also threaten Trump’s efforts to use the threat of further country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs to negotiate new trade deals with dozens of countries. He announced the first of those agreements Thursday with the U.K., although many details remain to be worked out. His team also negotiated an agreement with China to deescalate tariffs and established a bilateral mechanism to try to tackle long-standing trade irritants.

The Ultimate Bait and Switch of Trump’s Tariffs
How to understand the phony trade deals with Britain and China
By David Frum
If you’ve ever watched a game of three-card monte, you’ve noticed that the dealer talks nonstop. The chatter serves two functions. First, it distracts the victims. Second, and maybe more important, the dealer is deceiving his victims about what’s befalling them. …
The Trump White House’s press releases about its so-called trade agreements and negotiations—first with the United Kingdom, now with China—are just so much dealer patter.
The tariff numbers go up. Up and up and up. Ooh, now they come down. Up! Down! And all the while, everybody involved is telling contradictory stories about what’s being done and why.
The noise is made even more confusing by the journalists trying to explain the game.
Twists and turns to expect in Europe-U.S. trade talks
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, weighs in on the trade war between U.S. and China, and what to expect from the future trade talks with Europe.

5 May
CEOs to Trump: It’s time to make a trade war deal
The mood in the C-suite is growing sour as more CEOs get more vocal about the need for tariff relief
(Quartz) The mood in C-suites around the country was summed up by Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon, who said in a recent Bloomberg interview that “the policy actions to date have raised the level of uncertainty to a degree I do not think is healthy for investment and growth.” He’s not alone. “As I am talking to CEOs, talking to our clients, they are holding back on investment, and they are certainly tightening their belts,” he said.
House Republicans again block vote on Trump’s tariffs
Meredith Lee Hill
Republicans on the House Rules Committee moved again to block a vote on rolling back Donald Trump’s tariffs Monday in their latest effort to protect the president’s authority over global trade.

4-6 May
After Trump vows tariffs on foreign movies, the Canadian film industry says he’s lost the plot
No final decisions from White House, but Hollywood North says it would be devastating
(CBC) U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants to impose a 100 per cent tariff on movies produced outside the country, a move that could devastate the Canadian film landscape — but experts are scratching their heads over how such a tax would work, given how intertwined the global film industry is
Greg Denny, a Canadian film producer whose most recent credits include The Apprentice, a biopic about Trump that was partially shot in Toronto, says movies are rarely the product of a single country.
“We’re not creating a good here. We’re creating a movie. How do you put a tariff on top of that?” he asked. “This is many countries working together at all times, creating footage and content… It’s not really something I see you can put a tariff on.”
Trump’s Hollywood tariffs are more than just political theater
By early afternoon today [5 May] on the East Coast, the White House seemed to back off, according to a statement provided to the Hollywood Reporter: “Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made,” a spokesperson said, “the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again.”
Trump’s threat, however, may prove to be more than just political theater.
That is because the president’s claim — that there is some sort of “National Security threat” to Hollywood — underscored the unprecedented legal position that the administration has taken to support the bulk of Trump’s proposed tariff regime across all sectors.
The administration has largely relied on a once-obscure emergency economic powers law passed in 1977 that is known as the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). The law authorizes the president to take certain actions if he declares a national emergency resulting from an “unusual and extraordinary threat” originating outside the U.S. “to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.”

Lights, camera, inaction? Trump’s film tariff confuses Hollywood
California officials and film industry groups agree Hollywood is in trouble. They’re not sure the president’s latest idea would help.
Trump’s Sunday evening vow to clamp punishing 100 percent tariffs on foreign film imports left movie studios, labor unions, and California elected officials trying to assess how the president’s latest trade gambit — crafted with input from his Hollywood envoy Jon Voight — would impact the state’s faltering entertainment industry.
Rather than setting off another round of anti-Trump broadsides from an industry and a state brimming with Democrats, the move was met with bewilderment. (Voight’s publicist did not respond to a request for comment).
Trump threatens tariffs on movies, but experts say it may not be so simple
On Sunday night, Trump took to social media saying, “The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death. Other Countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood, and many other areas within the U.S.A., are being devastated. This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat.”
Trump spoke from the White House lawn on Monday telling reporters, “Other nations have been stealing the moving-making capabilities from the United States … and we’re making very few movies right now … Hollywood is being destroyed.”

Trump Says He Will Put 100% Tariff on Movies Made Outside U.S.
Declaring foreign film production a national security threat, the president said he had asked his top trade official to start the process of imposing a tax on Hollywood.

26 April
How Peter Navarro went from Democrat to inmate to Trump’s tariff guru
The man behind the president’s tumultuous tariff policies has sought for decades to set off the ultimate trade war with China.
(WaPo) The president has implemented a range of his recommendations — only to partially or wholly reverse them under pressure, while also keeping Navarro and his drastic ideas within reach.
At the outset of Trump’s second term, most of Navarro’s prescriptions appeared to be readily adopted. Navarro was a driving force behind large tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which have drawn unusual rebukes from GOP lawmakers. He successfully pushed for the administration to close a loophole allowing Chinese products worth less than $800 to be imported duty free, overcoming objections from private carriers such as FedEx and UPS, two people familiar with the matter said.
Ahead of the announcement of tariffs on April 2, which Trump billed as “Liberation Day,” Navarro pushed for universal tariffs on all imports and strikingly aggressive tariffs on dozens of countries worldwide. That approach — which jettisoned far more modest measures proposed by White House economists, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Treasury Department — was also adopted.
Yet Trump has also been willing to reject Navarro’s advice. With financial markets going haywire the week after April 2, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent persuaded Trump to approve a 90-day pause of the tariffs on dozens of countries so a deal could be reached.
… While some of the tariffs have been paused, the U.S. is currently imposing tariffs of 145 percent on Chinese products, in an unprecedented financial escalation with Beijing that reflects Navarro’s influence. … An examination of Navarro’s memoirs, interviews and other documentation shows that it is a war he has sought for decades. The enemy is not only China, he has said, but also the Wall Street titans who benefited from Beijing’s policies and who, notably, are among the most powerful players in the Republican Party, including some now in Trump’s Cabinet.

25 April
Trump Blinks as US Signals China Tariff De-Escalation
(Bloomberg) At the start of the month, as the US and China’s tit-for-tat tariff war escalated to levels the US Treasury Secretary this week characterized as equivalent to a trade embargo. Cue President Donald Trump and his Tuesday about-face, where he said he’d be willing to “substantially” pare back his 145% tariffs on China. That was a day after his meeting with executives from big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot who said import taxes could disrupt supply chains and raise the prices of goods — and after weeks of market turmoil as investors unwound the Trump trade to “sell America.” …
Amid the back and forth, one government official of a Group of Seven economy said the balance of power seemed to have shifted. The US needs to deliver a successful trade negotiation to prove its strong-arm policy is working. As a result, there’s less immediate urgency to meet the US on its terms, the person told Bloomberg.

22 April
US Treasury secretary says trade war with China is not ‘sustainable’
(AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday speech that the ongoing tariffs showdown against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
But in a private speech in Washington for JPMorgan Chase, Bessent also cautioned that talks between the United States and China had yet to formally start.

21 April
‘An Enormous Usurpation’: Inside the Case Against Trump’s Tariffs
The lawsuits challenging Trump’s trade war make powerful legal arguments. Is that enough?
(Politico) The Trump administration’s trade war has prompted chaos and countermeasures across the globe, but a potent counterattack has emerged in the courts in recent weeks — and in the long run, it could fatally undermine President Donald Trump’s unprecedented global tariff regime.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was the latest to join the fray with a lawsuit in federal court in California, a development that has already prompted public wrangling between Newsom and the administration. He follows plaintiffs in at least three separate federal suits — by members of the Blackfeet Nation in Montana, the New Civil Liberties Alliance in Florida and the Liberty Justice Center in the U.S. Court of International Trade. All three cases take direct aim at the Trump administration’s reliance on the once-obscure International Economic Emergency Powers Act.
First, the Constitution gives Congress the authority to tax and impose tariffs. Congress has delegated that authority to the executive branch in a handful of trade laws passed over the course of the last century, but the president’s power in this area is a function of the particular language contained in those statutes. (The likely reason that Trump invoked IEEPA is that, unlike the more commonly invoked trade laws, IEEPA does not require administrative investigations or consultations with Congress.)

JD Vance flies into a giant trade storm in India
It is being wooed and squeezed by America and China
(The Economist)…America’s vice-president, J.D. Vance landed in Delhi as part of an American campaign to push other countries to isolate China economically in exchange for reductions in President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs. Those tariffs, which include a 26% levy on India, are paused for all countries except China until July 8th. So Indian officials are racing to strike trade deals with America, the EU and others.
Peter Navarro: the economist who has outsmarted Elon Musk and has the ear of Donald Trump
US president’s chief trade adviser is intellectual driving force behind global tariffs and trade war with China
The tumult in global trade shows that for now it is the 75-year-old economist, not Musk, who has Donald Trump’s ear in the Oval Office.
Navarro is the US president’s chief trade adviser and the intellectual driving force behind the global tariffs and trade war with China. The chaos and uncertainty have been too strong even for Musk, the great disrupter, but Navarro’s silky mien still assures the US all is well.

18 April
‘Make West great again’: Trump, Meloni optimistic on EU tariffs deal
The US president says prospect of a trade deal with the EU is ‘100 percent’, praising the Italian prime minister as ‘fantastic’.

16 April
The False Promise of Tariffs
Dambisa Moyo
Supporters of US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies claim that tariffs will boost government revenue, fuel job creation, and revive American manufacturing after decades of globalization. In fact, Trump’s tariffs are more likely to raise consumer prices, weaken innovation, and undermine US competitiveness.
(Project Syndicate) In this era of growing protectionism, defending globalization can feel like a losing proposition. But rather than retreat from the debate, it is more urgent than ever to spell out the costs of a trade war, which threatens to accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy because it is really a war on trade itself. To challenge the logic behind the US administration’s protectionist agenda effectively, we must first understand it in clear and concrete terms.

Two “Guinea pigs” come to Washington
(GZERO media) As much of the world scrambles to figure out how to avoid Donald Trump’s expansive “reciprocal tariffs,” two big players are in Washington this week to try their hands at negotiating with the self-styled Deal Artist™ himself.
Japan is a top foreign investor in the US economy and a key East Asian ally amid Trump’s deepening confrontation with China. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa is looking to reduce tariffs to zero. Observers have already called his case a “guinea pig” for how countries with long-standing ties to the US can work deals with the America First president.
Late on Wednesday, Trump hailed “big progress” in the talks, which he attended personally, but neither he nor Akazawa gave further details. The two sides will meet again later this month
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni … shares Trump’s hard-line views on immigration and social issues, and even defended US Vice President JD Vance’s recent blistering attack on the EU’s approach to free speech.
But Meloni also leads a highly export-dependent economy that runs a $40bn surplus with the US. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” of 20% on the EU could therefore be a catastrophe for Italy.
Can Meloni parlay her good graces with Trump into a deal that avoids a wider transatlantic trade war? Or will her solo visit enable the US president to weaken the overall unity of the bloc?

15 April
‘I’d Fail Him as a Student’: Sachs Publicly Grades Trump’s Trade Illiteracy (YouTube)
Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs tore into Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, branding them “Mickey Mouse economics” and accusing the former president of unleashing chaos on global markets. In a scathing takedown, Sachs said Trump’s trade logic was so flawed that “he wouldn’t pass a basic econ class,” slamming the former president’s obsession with trade deficits as “childish and dangerous.” Sachs blamed Trump’s economic policies for triggering a $10 trillion loss in global wealth, warning that the U.S. is now flirting with authoritarianism under “one-man rule by emergency decree.” Dismissing Trump’s talk of foreign nations “cheating” the U.S., Sachs countered: “It’s not a trade issue—it’s a spending problem.” The blistering critique comes amid rising fears that Trump’s return to power could reignite economic instability worldwide.

Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma
…the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.
Officially, the plan involves a first step of investigating the national security implications of importing pharma and semiconductors. The next step would be to invoke Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows a president to impose tariffs in the interests of protecting national security. …
The United States relies heavily on Taiwan in particular for semiconductors — one plant there crafts 92% of the world’s advanced chips. As for pharmaceuticals, the US imports many from China, Ireland, and India.