Iran-Israel-U.S. June 2025-

21-22 June
Guardian Updates
Iran’s parliament has voted to shut down the vital Hormuz shipping channel in retaliation against Donald Trump’s attack on the country, prompting fears of a sharp spike in oil prices that could cause a global recession.
A barrel of Brent crude was selling for about $77 on Friday, having risen by more than 10% since mid-June when Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear sites prompted missile strikes from Tehran against Tel Aviv.
But Trump’s decision to follow Israel by launching a US attack on Iran has set off a chain of events that analysts warned could drive prices up much further when markets open at 11pm UK time on Sunday.
A fifth of the world’s oil consumption flows through the strait of Hormuz, which is a gateway out of the Persian Gulf.

US inserts itself into Israel’s war with Iran, striking 3 Iranian nuclear sites
(AP) — The United States struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel’s war aimed at destroying the country’s nuclear program in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe despite fears of a wider regional conflict.
Addressing the nation from the White House, President Donald Trump asserted that Iran’s key nuclear were “completely and fully obliterated.” There was no independent damage assessment.
It was not clear whether the U.S. would continue attacking Iran alongside its ally Israel, which has been engaged in a nine-day war with Iran. Trump acted without congressional authorization, and he warned that there would be additional strikes if Tehran retaliated against U.S. forces.

20 June
Under attack from Israel, Iran’s supreme leader faces a stark choice
(AP) — Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who crushed internal threats repeatedly during more than three decades in power, now faces his greatest challenge yet.
His archenemy, Israel, has secured free rein over Iran’s skies and is decimating the country’s military leadership and nuclear program with its punishing air campaign. It is also threatening his life: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Khamenei “cannot continue to exist.”
The 86-year-old leader faces a choice. He could escalate Iran’s retaliation against Israel and risk even heavier damage from Israeli bombardment. Or he could seek a diplomatic solution that keeps the U.S. out of the conflict, and risk having to give up the nuclear program he has put at the center of Iranian policy for years.
In a video address Wednesday he sounded defiant, vowing “the Iranian nation is not one to surrender” and warning that if the U.S. steps in, it will bring “irreparable damage to them.”

19 June
I hate Khamenei’s regime. But I love Iran even more.
The hope that the conflict between Israel and Iran will lead to regime change is fantasy.
Trump Says He’ll Decide on Iran Attack ‘Within the Next Two Weeks’
European officials, who have been effectively sidelined in the war between Israel and Iran, will try to exert limited leverage in a meeting with Iranian officials on Friday in Geneva.
(NYT) President Trump said on Thursday that he would decide whether the United States will attack Iran “within the next two weeks,” pivoting from recent comments that suggested an American strike might be imminent and raising the possibility of revived negotiations on the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
In a statement released by the White House announcing Mr. Trump’s new timeline, he said that “there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.”
The Three Dramatic Consequences of Israel’s Attack on Iran
Great battles, won or lost, change the entire course of events.
By Eliot A. Cohen
(The Atlantic) … Iran’s war with Israel is rooted in the Islamic Republic’s inveterate hostility to the Jewish state. It has consisted of multiple campaigns, including terror attacks against Jewish communities abroad (Argentina in 1994, for example) and missile salvos aimed at Israel (including from Lebanon and Iran itself last year). But three great events—the smashing of Hezbollah, the Syrian revolution that overthrew the Iranian-aligned regime, and now a climactic battle waged by long-range strikes and Mossad hit teams in Tehran—are changing the Middle East. …
…the emergence of a distinct mode of warfare, already apparent in some of Ukraine’s operations in Russia, that combines special operations with precision long-range strikes. Special operations are nothing new—the British secret services of the time played a role in a nearly successful bomb plot against Napoleon. But the innovation is combining large-scale and systematic use of assassinations and sabotage with nearly simultaneously precision strikes. Similar techniques helped decapitate Hezbollah’s leadership and devastate its middle ranks while smashing its arsenals, but Israel’s campaign against Iran is on an altogether different scale.

17-18 June
Trump says Iran deal ‘could still happen’ and claims Tehran was ‘a few weeks away’ from nuclear weapon –Iran goes into near-total internet blackout
Iran’s leader rejects call to surrender, warns against U.S. involvement
Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday rejected U.S. calls for surrender in the face of more Israeli strikes and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause “irreparable damage to them.” European diplomats prepared to hold talks with Iran on Friday.
The second public appearance by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since the Israeli strikes began six days ago came as Israel lifted some restrictions on daily life, suggesting that the missile threat from Iran was easing.
Trump urges Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender,’ says patience ‘wearing thin’

12-15 June
Israel’s Big Gamble to Knock Out Iran
Much now depends on how far the two central players are willing to go.
(Bloomberg Balance of Power) The Middle East is again bracing for a shifting of the plates following Israel’s decision to finally act on its decades-long threat to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities and its brazen decapitation of top commanders.
…what has focused the attention of leaders in global and regional capitals is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to wage what has all the hallmarks of an open-ended campaign designed ultimately to provoke a collapse of Iran’s clerical regime from within.
It’s this scenario and all its potential repercussions that’s preoccupying leaders of Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbors, who tried for months to get Tehran to agree to a deal with the US.
Saudi commentators say the region is now in the midst of conflict like no other going back to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 or even the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s — incidentally, the last time Tehran witnessed attacks of this scale.
Israel-Iran battle escalates, civilians urged to evacuate target areas
Concerns of wider conflict rise, including at G7 summit
Iran refuses ceasefire talks amid Israeli attacks, official says
Trump vetoes Israeli plan to target Iran’s supreme leader
Oil prices jump as Israel targets Iran’s oil and gas sector
(Reuters) – Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on Sunday, killing and wounding civilians and raising concerns of a broader regional conflict, with both militaries urging civilians on the opposing side to take precautions against further strikes.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he hoped a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders in Canada on Sunday would reach an agreement to help resolve the conflict and keep it from escalating.
Netanyahu says regime change in Iran could be result of Israel’s attacks
(Reuters) – Regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel’s military attacks on the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday, saying Israel would do whatever is necessary to remove the “existential threat” posed by Tehran.
Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” with a surprise attack on Friday morning that wiped out the top echelon of Iran’s military command and damaged its nuclear sites, and says the campaign will continue to escalate in coming days. Iran has vowed to “open the gates of hell” in retaliation.

Israel, Iran Trade Blows for Third Day With No Sign of Letup
(Bloomberg) The tit-for-tat followed reports of explosions across Iran, including one at a natural gas plant linked to the giant South Pars field.
The enmity between the two countries once again turned into open conflict on Friday, when Israel preemptively struck Iran’s nuclear and military sites. Assaults since then have shown Israel maintains dominance in the air and highlight the limits of Tehran’s ability to mount a credible response.
For Iran, that’s an existential dilemma: it can’t afford to appear weak, but its options are narrowing and proxy groups it backs have limited options to support the Islamic Republic, with Israel having diminished their ability to attack.
… Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his military would “strike at every site and every target of the Ayatollah regime,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said a day earlier that Israel won’t be able to “escape unscathed” after its attacks on the Islamic Republic.
Benjamin Netanyahu must be stopped
Moustafa Bayoumi
War is the prime minister’s doctrine. Israel’s strikes on Iran – falsely described as pre-emptive – are the latest example
(The Guardian) The Israeli prime minister’s lust for war as a solution to his myriad problems is nothing short of a threat to us all, one that extends far beyond Israel’s neighbors. Netanyahu knows no other way. War is his doctrine. War is his reflex. War is his answer. He believes the power of war will unite Israeli society and will stifle any American criticism of him, necessary since the machinery he needs to make his wars comes mostly from Washington. And, with his aggression against Iran, he seeks to drag the United States further into another endless military quagmire in the region and light the world on fire.
Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv as Netanyahu warns attack on Iran ‘just the beginning’
Israel says Iran has fired up to 100 missiles in retaliation for surprise assault as both sides threaten escalating hostilities
Trump scrambles to claim credit for Israel’s Iran attack he publicly opposed
Andrew Roth in Washington
Discordant US response as president says he was fully aware of plans for what Marco Rubio called a ‘unilateral action’
While Israel had clearly given the United States advanced warning of the strike, claims that it was fully coordinated in Israeli state media have been subject to speculation: was Trump actually on board or was he repositioning himself on Friday in order to present the strikes as part of a coherent strategy.
On Thursday, in remarks from the White House’s East Room, Trump said that strikes on Israel could “blow up” his diplomatic efforts to negotiate with the Iranian leadership and said he “didn’t want them going in”. He defended his decision to begin evacuating personnel because a strike “could well happen”.
We’re witnessing a historic test of two assumptions about Israel
Will Israel’s attack provide an opening for dissidents opposed to the Iranian regime?
By Natan Sharansky, human rights activist and former Soviet dissident, former Israeli government minister and deputy prime minister.
(WaPo) As we brace for Iran’s response and the possibility of a longer war to follow, we are also witnessing the historic test of two assumptions that have long guided Israeli and international policy.
The first is that Israel cannot eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat without active U.S. involvement.
… The second assumption being tested is that external pressure cannot precipitate the fall of the Islamic republic.

Sirens sound across Israel amid Iranian missile attacks
(Al Jazeera) Explosions in Tel Aviv as sirens sound across Israel amid Iranian missile attacks in response to Israeli strikes.
The Israeli military continues to launch waves of strikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites, as well as major cities.
US President Donald Trump says it’s not too late for Tehran to halt the bombing campaign by reaching a deal on its nuclear programme.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned Israel that it “must expect severe punishment” following the “crime” of attacking Iran and killing several top-level military commanders and six nuclear scientists.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the military operation will continue as long as necessary.
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the US is “not involved” in the strikes and warns Iran against attacking American bases in the region.
What is behind Israel’s decision to attack Iran?
Israel believes Iran is a threat to its security despite Iran’s insistence that it doesn’t want nuclear weapons.

Iran Reels From Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites and Top Officials
Israel said it had damaged a key nuclear facility, and Iran said several military commanders were killed. President Trump warned Tehran to agree to new limits on its nuclear program or risk “even more brutal” attacks.
(NYT) Iran was reeling on Friday from waves of Israeli strikes that decapitated its military chain of command and targeted a key nuclear facility, as President Trump urged Tehran to strike a deal curbing its nuclear program or risk “even more brutal” attacks.
Israeli military strikes hit Iran nuclear targets; Iran state media says Revolutionary Guards commander killed
Iranian state media has confirmed the killing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami in an Israeli strike.
(The Guardian) … Israeli media is reporting that Friday’s strikes on Iran were enabled by “breakthrough intelligence” obtained by Israel in the past year, according to a senior IDF official. … Following Israel’s strike on Iran in October, “the Intelligence Directorate carried out an unprecedented concentration of efforts to build an opening blow against senior Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists,” the official adds.
In a statement, the Israeli military said Iran had been “working for decades to obtain a nuclear weapon. The world has attempted every possible diplomatic path to stop it, but the regime has refused to stop.”
a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/13/israel-iran-strikes-defence-minister-tehran-middle-east-live”>Iran says Israel’s strikes on its nuclear facilities are a ‘declaration of war’ as Trump warns of ‘even more brutal attacks’ to come – live
Trump warns of ‘massive conflict’ soon if Iran nuclear talks break down
Fears of possible Israeli strike against Iran and retaliation after IAEA issues strongest rebuke of Iran in 20 years
Donald Trump has warned that a “massive conflict” could break out in the Middle East soon if talks over an Iranian nuclear deal break down, amid concerns over a possible Israeli strike against Tehran.