Trump Tariffs & Trade 15 April 2025-

Trump Tariffs & Trade 2024- 14 April 2025

Trump doubles tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising ire of Canada and Mexico
(Axios) State of play: The U.K. is not a leading exporter of the metals to the U.S., but Reuters notes that Canada exports the most steel by shipment volumes to the U.S. followed by Mexico.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said in a Tuesday media statement that his government was “engaged in intensive and live negotiations” for the removal of the tariffs, which it described as “unlawful and unjustified.”
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said during a Tuesday event that he’d seek an exemption for the country from the tariffs that he called “not fair” and “unsustainable,” per multiple reports.
The EC official said the commission was “finalizing consultations on expanded countermeasures” and if no resolution was reached “both existing and additional EU measures will automatically take effect” on July 14 or earlier, “if circumstances require.”
What we’re watching: While Trump campaigned on using tariffs to boost the economy and revive the domestic industry, he has so far mostly pulled back on imposing hefty levies.
See: Trump’s perplexing tariffs goals – 4 February

30 May
This TACO Gives Trump Indigestion, So Watch Out
The acronym — Trump Always Chickens Out — bruises the president’s ego and invites a chaotic response, mostly because it’s on the money.
(Bloomberg) …it also may be wise to consider this TACO-fueled moment as something other than a lighthearted interlude in an otherwise tragicomic policy miasma. Trump protects and prioritizes how his various audiences perceive him. A Trump eager to prove he’s not a chicken is a Trump willing to inflict economic, social or political damage in the service of his ego and self-image (also a recurring feature of his earlier but less consequential passage as a real estate developer and casino operator). Dangers loom.
Whiplash rulings on Trump’s tariffs could impact global trade talks
The legal confusion over tariffs has buffeted U.S. trading partners around the world, casting doubt on the durability of Trump’s favorite bargaining tool.
Dana Milbank: The bully gets punched in the nose
More and more Americans are summoning the courage to fight back against President Donald Trump.
… On “Liberation Day” two months ago, Trump unveiled the core of his economic plan: a massive increase in tariffs on most of the world. But he has since staged several retreats and surrenders in his trade war, and on Wednesday evening, about an hour before Musk called it quits, a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade axed most of the remaining tariffs; that and a second ruling invalidating the tariffs are on hold pending appeals. The judges — two of them Republican-appointed, and one a Trump appointee — said Trump had usurped congressional power to levy tariffs.

Heather Cox Richardson: Letters from an American May 28, 2025
Judges continue to decide cases against Trump, with a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade ruling today that President Donald J. Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal.
… Tariffs were in the news today in another way, too, as Wall Street analysts have begun to talk of “TACO trade” short for “Trump always chickens out.” The phrase was coined earlier this month by Robert Armstrong of Financial Times and refers to Trump’s habit of threatening extraordinarily high tariffs and then backing down. Armstrong noted that investors have figured out that they can buy stocks cheaply immediately after Trump’s initial tariff announcement and then sell higher when stocks rebound after he changes his mind.
Trump’s Global Tariffs Deemed Illegal, Blocked by Trade Court
(Bloomberg) The vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court, dealing a major blow to a pillar of his economic agenda.
A panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan issued a unanimous ruling Wednesday which sided with Democratic-led states and small businesses that accused Trump of wrongfully invoking an emergency law to justify the bulk of his levies. The court gave the administration 10 days to “effectuate” its order, but didn’t spell out any steps it must take to unwind the tariffs.

23 May
Trade talks bog down as countries — and White House — race to meet July deadline
(Politico) President Donald Trump promised that his administration would be able to make quick trade deals with more than 50 trading partners. But halfway into his self-imposed deadline, talks have gotten bogged down.
After reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the United Kingdom earlier this month to lower some tariffs on both sides, the White House continues to tout progress in its negotiations with more than a dozen other major trading partners.
But according to conversations with ten foreign officials, U.S. business leaders and others familiar with the talks, disagreements are mounting in many of those talks and foreign governments are digging in, even those eager to cut deals, like some in Asia — a reminder of just how slow and complex traditional trade negotiations can be. Trump and other top officials have recently begun acknowledging that reality out loud, suggesting they will have to set new tariff rates on many countries when they hit the July 9 date for their so-called reciprocal tariffs to kick back in.
They’ve been vague, however, about what may happen if deals are not reached. Trump has promised that he would send out new tariff numbers, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested over the weekend that the White House could establish regional tariff rates, or snap back to the higher April 2 rates for countries that are not negotiating “in good faith.” The lack of a clear path forward is likely to prolong the economic uncertainty spurred by the administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policy, which has bogged down consumer sentiment, business investments and economic growth.

12-13 May
The case that could blow up Trump’s tariff plan
(Politico) …today, a three-judge panel on the court held the first oral argument in the cases challenging the legal basis for the Trump administration’s tariff framework, moving closer to a decision that could have major consequences for the American political system and the global economy.
The case is one of at least seven to date that have been filed to try to nullify Trump’s tariffs. Thus far, these lawsuits have attracted the support of groups across the political spectrum, including some prominent conservatives and former Republican government officials, more than 100 Democratic members of Congress, the libertarian Cato Institute and the liberal Brennan Center for Justice.
How Trump’s trade war could end by June
The challengers say the president is violating the Constitution and hope the Court of International Trade will grant their request for a preliminary injunction before the end of the month.
It’s up to the U.S. Court of International Trade, an obscure, New York-based federal court that decides cases related to trade and customs law. The court is hearing oral arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping new tariffs last month, before suspending the highest ones on about 60 trading partners for 90 days. If the court grants the plaintiffs’ request for an emergency injunction it could upend the trade negotiations the Trump administration is now racing to complete with dozens of countries.
The tariffs’ challengers say Trump is violating the Constitution and hope the Court of International Trade will grant their request for a preliminary injunction before the end of the month.
That’s vital because many businesses may not survive if the tariffs remain in place while the case is litigated potentially all the way to the Supreme Court, said Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel at the Liberty Justice Center, a conservative constitutional rights group representing VOS Selections, a New York-based wine and spirits company, and other small businesses suing over Trump’s tariffs.
An injunction would also threaten Trump’s efforts to use the threat of further country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs to negotiate new trade deals with dozens of countries. He announced the first of those agreements Thursday with the U.K., although many details remain to be worked out. His team also negotiated an agreement with China to deescalate tariffs and established a bilateral mechanism to try to tackle long-standing trade irritants.

The Ultimate Bait and Switch of Trump’s Tariffs
How to understand the phony trade deals with Britain and China
By David Frum
If you’ve ever watched a game of three-card monte, you’ve noticed that the dealer talks nonstop. The chatter serves two functions. First, it distracts the victims. Second, and maybe more important, the dealer is deceiving his victims about what’s befalling them. …
The Trump White House’s press releases about its so-called trade agreements and negotiations—first with the United Kingdom, now with China—are just so much dealer patter.
The tariff numbers go up. Up and up and up. Ooh, now they come down. Up! Down! And all the while, everybody involved is telling contradictory stories about what’s being done and why.
The noise is made even more confusing by the journalists trying to explain the game.
Twists and turns to expect in Europe-U.S. trade talks
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, weighs in on the trade war between U.S. and China, and what to expect from the future trade talks with Europe.

5 May
CEOs to Trump: It’s time to make a trade war deal
The mood in the C-suite is growing sour as more CEOs get more vocal about the need for tariff relief
(Quartz) The mood in C-suites around the country was summed up by Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon, who said in a recent Bloomberg interview that “the policy actions to date have raised the level of uncertainty to a degree I do not think is healthy for investment and growth.” He’s not alone. “As I am talking to CEOs, talking to our clients, they are holding back on investment, and they are certainly tightening their belts,” he said.
House Republicans again block vote on Trump’s tariffs
Meredith Lee Hill
Republicans on the House Rules Committee moved again to block a vote on rolling back Donald Trump’s tariffs Monday in their latest effort to protect the president’s authority over global trade.

4-6 May
After Trump vows tariffs on foreign movies, the Canadian film industry says he’s lost the plot
No final decisions from White House, but Hollywood North says it would be devastating
(CBC) U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants to impose a 100 per cent tariff on movies produced outside the country, a move that could devastate the Canadian film landscape — but experts are scratching their heads over how such a tax would work, given how intertwined the global film industry is
Greg Denny, a Canadian film producer whose most recent credits include The Apprentice, a biopic about Trump that was partially shot in Toronto, says movies are rarely the product of a single country.
“We’re not creating a good here. We’re creating a movie. How do you put a tariff on top of that?” he asked. “This is many countries working together at all times, creating footage and content… It’s not really something I see you can put a tariff on.”
Trump’s Hollywood tariffs are more than just political theater
By early afternoon today [5 May] on the East Coast, the White House seemed to back off, according to a statement provided to the Hollywood Reporter: “Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made,” a spokesperson said, “the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again.”
Trump’s threat, however, may prove to be more than just political theater.
That is because the president’s claim — that there is some sort of “National Security threat” to Hollywood — underscored the unprecedented legal position that the administration has taken to support the bulk of Trump’s proposed tariff regime across all sectors.
The administration has largely relied on a once-obscure emergency economic powers law passed in 1977 that is known as the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). The law authorizes the president to take certain actions if he declares a national emergency resulting from an “unusual and extraordinary threat” originating outside the U.S. “to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.”

Lights, camera, inaction? Trump’s film tariff confuses Hollywood
California officials and film industry groups agree Hollywood is in trouble. They’re not sure the president’s latest idea would help.
Trump’s Sunday evening vow to clamp punishing 100 percent tariffs on foreign film imports left movie studios, labor unions, and California elected officials trying to assess how the president’s latest trade gambit — crafted with input from his Hollywood envoy Jon Voight — would impact the state’s faltering entertainment industry.
Rather than setting off another round of anti-Trump broadsides from an industry and a state brimming with Democrats, the move was met with bewilderment. (Voight’s publicist did not respond to a request for comment).
Trump threatens tariffs on movies, but experts say it may not be so simple
On Sunday night, Trump took to social media saying, “The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death. Other Countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood, and many other areas within the U.S.A., are being devastated. This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat.”
Trump spoke from the White House lawn on Monday telling reporters, “Other nations have been stealing the moving-making capabilities from the United States … and we’re making very few movies right now … Hollywood is being destroyed.”

Trump Says He Will Put 100% Tariff on Movies Made Outside U.S.
Declaring foreign film production a national security threat, the president said he had asked his top trade official to start the process of imposing a tax on Hollywood.

26 April
How Peter Navarro went from Democrat to inmate to Trump’s tariff guru
The man behind the president’s tumultuous tariff policies has sought for decades to set off the ultimate trade war with China.
(WaPo) The president has implemented a range of his recommendations — only to partially or wholly reverse them under pressure, while also keeping Navarro and his drastic ideas within reach.
At the outset of Trump’s second term, most of Navarro’s prescriptions appeared to be readily adopted. Navarro was a driving force behind large tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which have drawn unusual rebukes from GOP lawmakers. He successfully pushed for the administration to close a loophole allowing Chinese products worth less than $800 to be imported duty free, overcoming objections from private carriers such as FedEx and UPS, two people familiar with the matter said.
Ahead of the announcement of tariffs on April 2, which Trump billed as “Liberation Day,” Navarro pushed for universal tariffs on all imports and strikingly aggressive tariffs on dozens of countries worldwide. That approach — which jettisoned far more modest measures proposed by White House economists, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Treasury Department — was also adopted.
Yet Trump has also been willing to reject Navarro’s advice. With financial markets going haywire the week after April 2, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent persuaded Trump to approve a 90-day pause of the tariffs on dozens of countries so a deal could be reached.
… While some of the tariffs have been paused, the U.S. is currently imposing tariffs of 145 percent on Chinese products, in an unprecedented financial escalation with Beijing that reflects Navarro’s influence. … An examination of Navarro’s memoirs, interviews and other documentation shows that it is a war he has sought for decades. The enemy is not only China, he has said, but also the Wall Street titans who benefited from Beijing’s policies and who, notably, are among the most powerful players in the Republican Party, including some now in Trump’s Cabinet.

25 April
Trump Blinks as US Signals China Tariff De-Escalation
(Bloomberg) At the start of the month, as the US and China’s tit-for-tat tariff war escalated to levels the US Treasury Secretary this week characterized as equivalent to a trade embargo. Cue President Donald Trump and his Tuesday about-face, where he said he’d be willing to “substantially” pare back his 145% tariffs on China. That was a day after his meeting with executives from big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot who said import taxes could disrupt supply chains and raise the prices of goods — and after weeks of market turmoil as investors unwound the Trump trade to “sell America.” …
Amid the back and forth, one government official of a Group of Seven economy said the balance of power seemed to have shifted. The US needs to deliver a successful trade negotiation to prove its strong-arm policy is working. As a result, there’s less immediate urgency to meet the US on its terms, the person told Bloomberg.

22 April
US Treasury secretary says trade war with China is not ‘sustainable’
(AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday speech that the ongoing tariffs showdown against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
But in a private speech in Washington for JPMorgan Chase, Bessent also cautioned that talks between the United States and China had yet to formally start.

21 April
‘An Enormous Usurpation’: Inside the Case Against Trump’s Tariffs
The lawsuits challenging Trump’s trade war make powerful legal arguments. Is that enough?
(Politico) The Trump administration’s trade war has prompted chaos and countermeasures across the globe, but a potent counterattack has emerged in the courts in recent weeks — and in the long run, it could fatally undermine President Donald Trump’s unprecedented global tariff regime.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was the latest to join the fray with a lawsuit in federal court in California, a development that has already prompted public wrangling between Newsom and the administration. He follows plaintiffs in at least three separate federal suits — by members of the Blackfeet Nation in Montana, the New Civil Liberties Alliance in Florida and the Liberty Justice Center in the U.S. Court of International Trade. All three cases take direct aim at the Trump administration’s reliance on the once-obscure International Economic Emergency Powers Act.
First, the Constitution gives Congress the authority to tax and impose tariffs. Congress has delegated that authority to the executive branch in a handful of trade laws passed over the course of the last century, but the president’s power in this area is a function of the particular language contained in those statutes. (The likely reason that Trump invoked IEEPA is that, unlike the more commonly invoked trade laws, IEEPA does not require administrative investigations or consultations with Congress.)

JD Vance flies into a giant trade storm in India
It is being wooed and squeezed by America and China
(The Economist)…America’s vice-president, J.D. Vance landed in Delhi as part of an American campaign to push other countries to isolate China economically in exchange for reductions in President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs. Those tariffs, which include a 26% levy on India, are paused for all countries except China until July 8th. So Indian officials are racing to strike trade deals with America, the EU and others.
Peter Navarro: the economist who has outsmarted Elon Musk and has the ear of Donald Trump
US president’s chief trade adviser is intellectual driving force behind global tariffs and trade war with China
The tumult in global trade shows that for now it is the 75-year-old economist, not Musk, who has Donald Trump’s ear in the Oval Office.
Navarro is the US president’s chief trade adviser and the intellectual driving force behind the global tariffs and trade war with China. The chaos and uncertainty have been too strong even for Musk, the great disrupter, but Navarro’s silky mien still assures the US all is well.

18 April
‘Make West great again’: Trump, Meloni optimistic on EU tariffs deal
The US president says prospect of a trade deal with the EU is ‘100 percent’, praising the Italian prime minister as ‘fantastic’.

16 April
The False Promise of Tariffs
Dambisa Moyo
Supporters of US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies claim that tariffs will boost government revenue, fuel job creation, and revive American manufacturing after decades of globalization. In fact, Trump’s tariffs are more likely to raise consumer prices, weaken innovation, and undermine US competitiveness.
(Project Syndicate) In this era of growing protectionism, defending globalization can feel like a losing proposition. But rather than retreat from the debate, it is more urgent than ever to spell out the costs of a trade war, which threatens to accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy because it is really a war on trade itself. To challenge the logic behind the US administration’s protectionist agenda effectively, we must first understand it in clear and concrete terms.

Two “Guinea pigs” come to Washington
(GZERO media) As much of the world scrambles to figure out how to avoid Donald Trump’s expansive “reciprocal tariffs,” two big players are in Washington this week to try their hands at negotiating with the self-styled Deal Artist™ himself.
Japan is a top foreign investor in the US economy and a key East Asian ally amid Trump’s deepening confrontation with China. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa is looking to reduce tariffs to zero. Observers have already called his case a “guinea pig” for how countries with long-standing ties to the US can work deals with the America First president.
Late on Wednesday, Trump hailed “big progress” in the talks, which he attended personally, but neither he nor Akazawa gave further details. The two sides will meet again later this month
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni … shares Trump’s hard-line views on immigration and social issues, and even defended US Vice President JD Vance’s recent blistering attack on the EU’s approach to free speech.
But Meloni also leads a highly export-dependent economy that runs a $40bn surplus with the US. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” of 20% on the EU could therefore be a catastrophe for Italy.
Can Meloni parlay her good graces with Trump into a deal that avoids a wider transatlantic trade war? Or will her solo visit enable the US president to weaken the overall unity of the bloc?

15 April
‘I’d Fail Him as a Student’: Sachs Publicly Grades Trump’s Trade Illiteracy (YouTube)
Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs tore into Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, branding them “Mickey Mouse economics” and accusing the former president of unleashing chaos on global markets. In a scathing takedown, Sachs said Trump’s trade logic was so flawed that “he wouldn’t pass a basic econ class,” slamming the former president’s obsession with trade deficits as “childish and dangerous.” Sachs blamed Trump’s economic policies for triggering a $10 trillion loss in global wealth, warning that the U.S. is now flirting with authoritarianism under “one-man rule by emergency decree.” Dismissing Trump’s talk of foreign nations “cheating” the U.S., Sachs countered: “It’s not a trade issue—it’s a spending problem.” The blistering critique comes amid rising fears that Trump’s return to power could reignite economic instability worldwide.

Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma
…the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.
Officially, the plan involves a first step of investigating the national security implications of importing pharma and semiconductors. The next step would be to invoke Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows a president to impose tariffs in the interests of protecting national security. …
The United States relies heavily on Taiwan in particular for semiconductors — one plant there crafts 92% of the world’s advanced chips. As for pharmaceuticals, the US imports many from China, Ireland, and India.