Canada – U.S. 1 May 2025-

Policy Series:
The Expert Group on Canada-US Relations Navigating Trump II

6 July
Amid tariffs and falling sales, is Canada’s EV mandate doomed?
Experts say Carney could make adjustments instead of ending mandate outright
(CBC) With U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and light-duty vehicles continuing to batter the Canadian automobile industry, the CEOs of Canada’s big three automakers are asking for a break.
They met with Prime Minister Mark Carney this week to lobby for the elimination of the Liberal government’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. Maintaining it, they say, will cripple their companies and put thousands of jobs at risk.

29-30 June
Trade talks with U.S. resumed on Monday morning, says Carney
PM says DST removal ‘is part of a bigger negotiation’
(CBC) Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on the phone Sunday evening. He said they decided to continue with negotiations, with the previously agreed-upon July 21 deadline still in mind.
Carney said that the decision to remove the digital services tax (DST) “is part of a bigger negotiation” with the U.S.
“It is something we expected, in the broader sense, that would be part of a broader deal,” Carney told reporters Monday afternoon.
He said it “doesn’t make sense” to collect the tax now and have to remit it at a later date.
Canada Will Scrap Tax That Prompted Trump to Suspend Trade Talks
The government said on Sunday night that it would cancel its tax on American technology companies, handing a victory to the Trump administration.
(NYT) Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed the decision to scrap Canada’s digital services tax with Mr. Trump on Sunday, Mr. Carney’s office said. In a sign that trade talks were resuming, Canada’s finance minister, François-Philippe Champagne, spoke with the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, on Sunday, according to Mr. Carney’s office.
The tax, which had been due to take effect on Monday, became the latest flashpoint in difficult negotiations between the United States and Canada on Friday, when Mr. Trump said the talks were off. On social media, Mr. Trump called the levy a “blatant attack” and said he would inform Canada within a week about the duties “they will be paying to do business with the United States of America.”
Canada ditches tax on tech giants in bid to restart US trade talks
With digital services tax rescinded, Donald Trump and Mark Carney agree to resume negotiations with a view to agreeing a deal by 21 July
In a press release, the federal government said it would rescind the tax “in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States.”
“Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025,” the press release added
Minister of Finance François-Philippe Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Act, Finance Canada said Sunday.

28 June
Canada’s Trump-Fueled Brain Gain</strong
The University of Toronto has attracted several U.S. professors amid turmoil between American higher-education institutions and the Trump administration.
(NYT) A year ago, when Timothy Snyder and his wife, Marci Shore, both prominent Yale historians, moved to Canada after being recruited to the University of Toronto, they thought it would be a fun adventure.
… The Trump administration has put U.S. colleges in its cross hairs, accusing some of cradling haters of America. It has launched policies that threaten to expel international students and jeopardize funding and academic freedoms.
Professors Snyder and Shore, along with Jason Stanley, a Yale philosophy professor who also moved to Toronto, have in recent months become outspoken about the Trump administration.
They published a widely shared New York Times video opinion piece titled, “We Study Fascism, and We’re Leaving the U.S.”
At the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, they joined Brian Rathbun and Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, international relations professors who made a similar move last year from the University of Southern California.
These hirings offer early signs that at least some academic talent is moving away from American schools, with Canada emerging as a notable destination.

27 June
Trump terminates trade talks with Canada (00:58-08:10)
CBC News: The National |
(YouTube) ALL TRADE TALKS WITH THE U.S. ARE NOW OFF AS DONALD TRUMP LASHES OUT OVER CANADA’S DIGITAL SERVICE TAX. IT’S SET TO KICK IN ON MONDAY, AND TRUMP CALLS IT A BLATANT ATTACK ON HIS COUNTRY. THAT MAJOR MOVE, LIKE SO MANY OTHERS, ANNOUNCED BY TRUMP ON-LINE, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, THE TWO COUNTRIES HAD BEEN TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TRADE DEAL FOR WEEKS. …
Trump wants to ‘crow’ that ‘he’s the winner’ in the negotiations, Mulcair says after talks end
Political commentator Tom Mulcair reacts to Trump ending trade negotiations with Canada, saying it’s a sign a deal could be close.
Trump terminating Canada-trade talks a ‘negotiating tactic’: Eric Ham
U.S. political analyst Eric Ham calls Trump’s ‘abrupt’ ending to trade talks with Canada a ‘negotiating tactic’ as he feels he has the ‘wind at his back.’
Canada won’t delay digital services tax during U.S. trade negotiations, says finance minister
Tax on companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, Uber, Airbnb will apply retroactively
‘We have all the cards’: Trump ending all trade talks with Canada ‘immediately’ over digital services tax
(CTV) U.S. President Donald Trump says his team is ending all trade talks with Canada, “effective immediately,” citing disagreement over Canada’s controversial digital services tax as the reason for shutting down negotiations.
He made the announcement in a post Friday on Truth Social, calling the levy “a direct and blatant attack” on the U.S. and its technology companies.
Trump’s announcement is a wrench in ongoing trade discussions between the two countries, which have been in the throes of a trade war for months, since the president’s first slate of tariffs on Canadian goods in February.

Approximately 55 Canadians have been detained by ICE, minister says
ICE operations have been under increased public scrutiny since Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, said ICE officers would target at least 3,000 arrests a day, up from about 650 a day during the first five months of Trump’s second term. ICE operations have sparked protests across the U.S., leading to arrests and curfews.
During her interview with CTV News, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand responded to questions about the Canadian citizen who died in ICE custody on June 23.
She said consular officials had been in contact with Johnny Noviello, 49, since he was detained by ICE on May 15.
… Noviello entered the U.S. with a visa on Jan. 2, 1988. He became a permanent resident three years later. In October 2023, he was convicted in eastern Florida for racketeering and drug trafficking and sentenced to 12 months in prison.

23 June
Mark Carney names Kirsten Hillman chief negotiator with U.S.
Hillman has worked at the Canadian embassy in Washington since 2017 and has served as ambassador since her acting appointment in 2019.
Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman will take on the role of top negotiator for Canada as the country seeks a new trade and security pact with the Donald Trump administration.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office confirms Hillman has been named to the position, making her U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s opposite number in the bilateral trade talks.
Emily Williams, Carney’s director of communications, also confirms Hillman will stay on as Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., as first reported by The Globe and Mail newspaper.
Hillman was a key Canadian negotiator under the first Trump White House when Canada renegotiated NAFTA, and served as Canada’s chief negotiator for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

16 June
U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Prime Minister Mark Carney have different concepts around trade. Trump reiterated his support for tariffs, saying: ‘It’s simple, it’s easy, it’s precise.’ Trump noted that Carney has ‘a more complex idea,’ and said, ‘we’re going to look at both.’
Carney and Trump commit to signing new trade deal within 30 days
The heads of the world’s seven most powerful economies are meeting amid a U.S.-led tariff war and global uncertainty
(National Post) Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump expect to sign a new trade deal within 30 days, marking a major turn in bilateral relations and signalling a potential end to the ongoing trade war.
The major development came in a readout by the prime minister’s office of a roughly hour-long meeting between both leaders Monday morning.
“To that end, the leaders agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming 30 days,” it continues. The PMO clarified that meant a new deal would be signed within that timeline.
During a media availability earlier in the day, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he felt a new trade deal with Canada could be achievable shortly, but did not suggest a timeline.
In a press conference after the Trump and Carney bilateral, Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc also said talks were accelerating with the Americans but omitted to mention the 30 day deadline.

4-5 June
Carney and Trump holding direct talks on trade and security, U.S. envoy says
(Globe & Mail) U.S. ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra told The Globe and Mail that talks between the leaders and top cabinet ministers are being held under a cone of silence to ensure a positive outcome.
… The talks include Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Mr. Hoekstra said.
Mr. Hoekstra said the Canadians and Americans are “laying out the perimeters” of a deal that could involve boosting U.S. content in autos, improving U.S. access to Canadian critical minerals and ensuring Canada plays a much bigger role in the Arctic. The talks also include increased defence spending, energy, border security, fentanyl as well as steel and aluminum.
Carney and Trump are holding private talks to drop tariffs
Ottawa hoping to reach agreement with Trump administration before G7 summit
(CBC) Prime Minister Mark Carney says the trading relationship with the U.S. is important to both sides. Sources confirmed to CBC News that the U.S. president has been having phone conversations with Carney over tariffs.
Sources with knowledge of the conversations first confirmed the calls with CBC/Radio-Canada and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly later told reporters that Carney and Trump are talking to each other.
A source, who spoke on the condition they not be named, said the two leaders have had a few phone calls in the evenings and exchanged text messages about trade since Carney’s visit to the White House last month.
Carney says Canada is preparing reprisals if tariff talks with Trump fail
U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have now doubled
Trump doubles metals tariffs, Carney tight lipped on Canada’s response.
U.S. President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25 per cent to 50 per cent.
The presidential proclamation went into force at 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday. In that document, Trump said the new rate would better counter “foreign countries that continue to offload low-priced, excess steel and aluminum,” undercutting the U.S. market.
Ottawa called the additional levies “unlawful and unjustified.” About a quarter of all steel used in the United States is imported and Canada is its largest supplier.
Industry Minister Melanie Joly said she and her colleagues are reviewing a variety of options, and that they need more time, “but not much,” to decide on the best path forward.
Canada has already placed counter tariffs on a gamut of U.S. goods, she noted, adding Ottawa’s eventual response must impose “maximum pain” on the U.S. while inflicting “minimum impact” on Canadians.
Meanwhile, she said, Canada will invest in military and infrastructure projects to create more jobs in the steel and aluminum sectors.

1 June
Is Canada-U.S. trade ‘progress’ possible in 2 weeks? Ontario rep says ‘yes’
Provincial and federal negotiators are making progress with the Trump administration on lowering U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Canada, Ontario’s trade representative in Washington says, suggesting a deal could be close at hand.
David Paterson said he’s hopeful that further progress in reducing those tariffs can be made by the time Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney are face-to-face at the G7 Leader’s Summit in Alberta in two weeks.

31 May
Trump’s new steel tariffs will cause ‘mass disruption’, Canadian industry warns
Trump said on Friday that he will double the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 per cent.
Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA), said the steel industry in Canada and the U.S. were highly integrated and tariffs would hit steel producers on both sides.
“Steel tariffs at this level will create mass disruption and negative consequences across our highly integrated steel supply chains and customers on both sides of the border,” Cobden said in a statement Saturday.

26 May
King Charles Visits Canada in a Subtle Rebuke to Trump
The British monarch, who is Canada’s official head of state, is coming at a moment when President Trump has threatened the country’s sovereignty.
(NYT) Charles and Queen Camilla are in Canada at the invitation of Prime Minister Mark Carney. Charles will open Canada’s Parliament Tuesday in a ceremony laden with pageantry and pomp before winding up his two day visit. It was Charles’s first visit to Canada since he was crowned two years ago. …
Without saying so explicitly, Mr. Carney suggested that he was taking the unusual step of having the monarch open Parliament to emphasize Canada’s distinct heritage from the United States, at a time when President Trump has repeatedly called for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state.

23 May
Bad news for Trump’s Golden Dome: He can’t build it without Canada
The president would need to rely on Ottawa to track Chinese and Russian missiles that could come at the U.S. from over the horizon.
(Politico) President Donald Trump left out a key detail this week when he outlined his plans for a massive missile and air defense shield over the continent: He can’t build it without Canada.
And it’s not clear America’s northern neighbor wants in.
…while Trump insists the country wants to participate, Canadian leaders appear more tepid.
“There’s a lot we just don’t know,” said Shuvaloy Majumdar, a Conservative member of Canada’s parliament. “There’s a lot that needs to be revealed about how the economic and security partnership with America and Canada will unfold.”
Trump suddenly finds himself in need of an ally he has largely forsaken. He has singled out Canada for free riding on American military might and preferential trade ties, and has engaged in a tariff battle that has stilted relations. Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned the United States can’t take Ottawa for granted and has begun searching for other security partners.
The shield, therefore, gives Canada some new leverage in the countries’ tenuous relationship.
“None of [the Golden Dome partnership] has been spelled out or negotiated,” Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. “The president, because of his rhetoric, has alienated a large part of the Canadian population, and that’s being reflected in the political leaders … it’s not, you know, good old Canada-USA. It’s like, ‘We can’t do this easily, because our people are very upset.’”

14 May
Canada’s new tariffs on U.S. drop to ‘nearly zero’ with exemptions, Oxford says
(BNN/Bloomberg) Canada has effectively suspended almost all of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, tamping down inflation risks and improving its growth outlook, according to Oxford Economics.
The government imposed new import taxes of 25 per cent on about $60 billion (US$43 billion) of U.S.-made goods in March in response to the first round of tariffs from the Trump administration. Canada also retaliated against U.S. auto tariffs in early April by putting its own levies on U.S. vehicles.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government then announced a six-month tariff exemption for products used in Canadian manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, and for items related to health care, public safety and national security. Automakers got a break, too: companies that manufacture in Canada, such as General Motors Co., are allowed to import some vehicles into Canada tariff-free.
Those exemptions mean Canada’s tariff-rate increase on the U.S. is “nearly zero,” according to calculations by Oxford.
“It’s a very strategic approach from a new prime minister to really say, ‘We’re not going to have a retaliation,’” Tony Stillo, Oxford’s director of Canada economics, said in an interview. “It’s a strategic play on the government’s part to not damage the Canadian economy.”

13 May
Travellers change plans to avoid intense U.S. border checks as Canadian airlines rethink routes
(Globe & Mail) More Canadian travellers are avoiding the United States, with some deterred by intensive border checks and shifting their holiday plans, while Canada’s airlines are adjusting their routes and schedules in response.
New figures released Monday show a steep drop in the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by either air or car in April, as fewer people head south of the border for shopping or vacations.
Travel to the U.S. takes another hit in April as Canadians vacation elsewhere
Canadian residents returning by automobile from the U.S. in April fell on a year-over-year basis for the fourth consecutive month, preliminary numbers released by Statistics Canada showed Monday. The 1.2 million trips represented a 35.2 per cent drop from the same month in 2024 and 45.1 per cent lower than April 2019, before the pandemic.
In a backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and “51st state” threats over the past few months, Canadians have cancelled trips and appear to be stepping back from making future travel plans south of the border.
… Canadian residents returning by air from the United States in April totalled 582,700, down 19.9 per cent from a year ago, even as return trips from overseas went up. The change came as overall Canadian-resident return trips by air edged down 1.7 per cent to 1.8 million as return trips from overseas countries rose 9.9 per cent compared with April 2024.
Overall international arrivals, including both Canadian residents and non-residents, by air and automobile totalled 4.5 million in April, down 15.2 per cent from the same month last year, Statistics Canada said.
… In March, Air Canada reduced flights by 10 per cent to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona – usually go-to hot spots during spring break season. Competitors WestJet, Flair Airlines and Air Transat made similar moves.
Last week, Air Canada also announced a 16 per cent capacity increase into Latin America starting in October.
Several conferences relocate north of the border as Canadians refuse to travel to the U.S.
Conference organizers say they made changes after members expressed concerns over U.S. travel

6 May
Carney says Canada ‘not for sale’ while Trump pitches tax breaks
The president took a friendlier posture in person, but refused to budge on tariffs.
(Politico) The first substantive encounter between the newly elected Canadian leader and Trump, whose antagonism of Canada helped Carney gain political support, involved mostly gestures of friendship and pledges from both sides to reset the trade relationship. But the public portion of their remarks did not reveal specifics of what shape a pact might take — and the impasse over Trump’s tariffs remained obvious.
Trump, Carney faceoff in Oval Office leaves gaping differences on tariffs, 51st state
(AP) … Carney later described his conversation with Trump as “wide ranging” and “constructive,” telling reporters that the prospect is there for positive negotiations but there would be “zigs and zags.” Carney said he stressed the value that Canadian companies and factories created for U.S. automakers while stressing that it was unfair to assume one meeting could resolve any differences.
“I wouldn’t have expected white smoke coming out of this meeting,” Carney said after the Tuesday meeting, referencing the signal that a new pope has been selected.
Carney said that he privately asked Trump to stop calling Canada the 51st state during their meeting. But when pressed on how Trump responded, the Canadian prime minister said: “He’s the president. He’s his own person.”
Handshakes, friendship and ‘never, never, never, never, never’: five takeaways from Carney-Trump meeting
In the much anticipated first encounter, a positive tone held despite the Canadian leader’s rebuff against US advances
(The Guardian) 1. Canada is not for sale
“Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign … it’s not for sale,” said Carney. “Won’t be for sale, ever.” …

5 May
Trump says he doesn’t know why Carney wants to meet as business experts raise caution about trade deal
U.S. President Donald Trump says he does not know what to expect from his Tuesday meeting with Mark Carney or why the Prime Minister wants to see him.
(Globe & Mail) In comments less than 24 hours before the pair sit down for their first tête-à-tête, Mr. Trump adopted a nonchalant air.
“I don‘t know. He’s coming to see me. I’m not sure what he wants to see me about, but I guess he wants to make a deal. Everybody does,” the President said Monday in the Oval Office when asked what he anticipated for the meeting. “They all want to make a deal because we have something that they all want.”
Carney heads to Washington, D.C. ahead of Trump meeting: PMO
Carney, in his first comments Friday following the election, said it was “important to distinguish want from reality,” adding that the upcoming talks would be difficult.
“I’m not pretending those discussions will be easy,” he said. “They won’t proceed in a straight line. There will be zigs and zags, ups and downs. But as I said in my remarks, I will fight for the best deal for Canada and only accept the best deal for Canada and take as much time as necessary.”

Northeastern governors look to sidestep Trump administration in Canadian trade war
Governors from six states, including Massachusetts and New York, invited the premiers of six Canadian provinces for a meeting in Boston in the coming weeks.
Northeastern governors are looking to bolster their economic ties with America’s northern neighbor and counteract the Trump administration’s combative trade policies.
In a letter sent Monday, governors from six states, including Massachusetts and New York, invited the premiers of six Canadian provinces for a meeting in Boston in the coming weeks.
“As Governors of New England, we want to keep open lines of communication and cooperation and identify avenues to overcome the hardship of these uninvited tariffs and help our economies endure,” the letter, led by Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, reads. “As we continue to navigate this period of great uncertainty, we are committed to preserving cross border travel, encouraging tourism in our respective jurisdictions, and promoting each other’s advantages and amenities.”

2 May
Canada’s Mark Carney on Getting Ready to Meet Trump (video)
(Bloomberg Television) Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday to discuss trade issues and the broader relationship between Canada and the US. Carney spoke about the upcoming meeting.

30 April
Canada will deal with Trump ‘on our terms’, Carney tells BBC
Carney said talks with Trump would be “on our terms, not on their terms”.
“There is a partnership to be had, an economic and security partnership,” he said.
“It’s going to be a very different one than we’ve had in the past.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed he will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday [7 May].
Carney said he’s anticipating “difficult, but constructive” talks in Washington.
Trump has repeatedly voiced a desire for Canada to become the “51st state” and has said that the United States acquiring Greenland is a matter of “national security.” He has also made noise about taking back the Panama Canal.
These dreams of expansion are a transparent effort by Trump to cement some kind of legacy for himself and distract from his utterly failed domestic agenda.
On whether or not he’ll visit the White House, Carney said “it depends.”
“I’ve been to Washington. I’ve been to the White House. I’ve seen it. I’ve seen all the monuments. I’ve been to Florida even,” he said. “So I’m not going as a tourist. I’ll go when there’s a serious discussion to be had.”