Syria December 2024 –

Syria
A Visual Guide to the Tangled
Alliances and Rivalries in Syria

6 February
The Fall of the House of Assad
A detached ruler, obsessed with sex and video games, refused every lifeline he was offered.
By Robert F. Worth
(The Atlantic) Bashar al-Assad, who oversaw the torture and murder of hundreds of thousands of his fellow Syrians during a quarter century in power, may have achieved something new in the annals of tyranny. As the rebels closed in on Damascus on December 7, 2024, Assad reassured his aides and subordinates that victory was near, and then fled in the night on a Russian jet, telling almost no one. I remember seeing a statement issued that same evening declaring that Assad was at the palace performing his “constitutional duties.” Some of his closest aides were fooled and had to escape the country however they could as rebel militias lit up the sky with celebratory gunfire.
The sudden collapse of the Assad regime put an end to a cruel police state, but now there is virtually no Syrian state at all outside the capital. The country’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa… is also an Islamist whose authority is tenuous, and whose country remains so dangerously volatile that it could easily descend into another war.
No one—not the CIA, not the Mossad—appears to have had any idea that Assad would fall so fast. But in the days and weeks afterward, an explanation for his regime’s collapse began to gain currency. Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran, had been drawn into other conflicts, with Ukraine and Israel respectively, and no longer had the ability to protect him. Their sudden withdrawal exposed what had been hidden in plain sight for years: the terrible weakness of an exhausted, corrupt, and underpaid army. A little like the American-backed regime in Afghanistan that fell in 2021, the Assad dynasty was the casualty of broader geopolitical realignments. After the fact, its fall came to seem inevitable.
But over the past year, I have spoken with dozens of the courtiers and officers who inhabited the palace in Damascus, and they tell a different story. Many describe a detached ruler, obsessed with sex and video games, who probably could have saved his regime at any time in the past few years if he hadn’t been so stubborn and vain. In this version, it was not geopolitics that doomed the regime. None of the countries in the region wanted Assad to fall, and several of them offered him lifelines. If he had taken hold of them, he would almost certainly be sitting in the palace now. Even in the final days, foreign ministers were calling, offering deals. He didn’t answer. He appears to have been sulking, angered by the suggestion that he might have to give up the throne.

3 February
Syrian security forces continue to deploy in Kurdish areas under deal with SDF
(AP) — Security forces affiliated with Syria’s Interior Ministry continued Tuesday to deploy in Kurdish-dominated areas in northeastern Syria as part of an agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
A convoy of security forces entered the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, in the countryside of al-Hasakah province — where they entered on Monday.
Under the deal, small contingents of security forces reporting to the Interior Ministry will enter Kurdish-majority areas. Their mandate is limited to securing state-affiliated institutions, including civil registry offices, passport departments and the airport, and to restart work at those facilities.

24 January
Syrian and Kurdish forces agree to extend ceasefire as threat of war looms
Ceasefire to be extended for one month to allow transfer of suspected Islamic State members from Syria to Iraq
The two sides had announced a temporary ceasefire earlier in the week, halting an offensive by the Syrian government which brought its army to the door of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The announcement quelled concerns the offensive would restart on Saturday and gave more space for diplomacy, but did not solve the root cause of the conflict between the two sides.
Fighting over three contested neighbourhoods in Aleppo in early January led to a sweeping government offensive in which the SDF lost the majority of its territory in the country in a matter of days.
The ceasefire was meant to give time for the SDF to implement a 14-point plan with the Syrian government under which the Kurdish militia would disband and its soldiers integrate into the Syrian army.

20-21 January
Syrian forces make gains against SDF: What it means for country’s Kurds
(Al Jazeera) Analysts believe overtures from the Syrian government to the Kurdish minority have come a little late.
Territorial gains in northeast Syria, where government forces have retaken the cities of Raqqa and Deir Az Zor from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have been a boon to President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Negotiations with the SDF have been ongoing since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024 over the integration of the main Kurdish representative in Syria into the Syrian armed forces. Al-Sharaa has used varying tactics against the group, recently announcing a decree on Kurdish rights while also confronting the group militarily.
Syrian army takes control of detention camp for Islamic State suspects
Move follows withdrawal of Kurdish forces from al-Hawl, where 24,000 people are being held over alleged IS links
The camp has been the subject of international concern as security experts say it is a hotbed of extremism and in the event of a jailbreak could help IS reconstitute itself in Syria and beyond.
The Syrian government accused Kurdish forces of withdrawing and leaving the prison unguarded, which it said had led to the escape of some detainees.
A similar scenario unfolded in Shaddadi prison as the SDF withdrew in front of advancing forces, leading to 120 prisoners escaping. The SDF denied it had let any prisoners escape at either location.
Kurdish forces withdraw from IS detention camp in north-east Syria
US says it no longer supports SDF, which left camp as it loses swathes of territory to government forces

8 January
Syrian army orders Aleppo evacuations amid fighting with Kurdish forces
People told to leave three areas as fears grow of wider conflict between government and Kurdish authorities

2025

19 December
U.S. Strikes Islamic State Targets in Syria
American forces struck dozens of suspected ISIS sites, making good on President Trump’s vow to avenge two American soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter killed by the group last week.
(NYT) The United States began major airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria on Friday, fulfilling President Trump’s vow to avenge the deaths of two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter killed in a terrorist attack in the central part of the country last Saturday.
American fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery salvos struck dozens of suspected Islamic State sites at several locations across central Syria, including weapons storage areas and other buildings to support operations, according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sought to tamp down fears that the United States might reopen a major new war in the Middle East, but also suggested that increased attacks against the Islamic State would continue.

Europe has lost all credibility in the Middle East. The way to regain it lies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon
Nathalie Tocci
(The Guardian) A year after the overthrow of Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, the former jihadi fighter turned Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed the Doha Forum earlier this month, deftly parrying questions about his controversial past and outlining his country’s complex journey toward a participatory, rules-based system. As I listened, it struck me that, while Europe’s role in the Middle East has been severely damaged by its immoral stance on the Gaza war and its self-inflicted exclusion from Iran nuclear diplomacy, Europeans still have a role to play when it comes to its neighbours in the eastern Mediterranean.

17 December
A Militant’s Transformation
By Katrin Bennhold
Ahmed Al-Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda ally, is now president of Syria. We look at his transformation, and whether he can transform his country, too.
(NYT) Years before Ahmed al-Sharaa became president of Syria, he was the commander of a jihadist rebel group allied with Al Qaeda. He dispatched suicide bombers to blow up military posts and pledged to create an Islamic state.
Today al-Sharaa wears suits, matches the color of his ties to the flags of the countries he visits, and is welcomed at the White House.
It’s a staggering evolution. But al-Sharaa is not the only person with a “strong past,” as President Trump once put it, to find himself suddenly walking the halls of power. And the stories of leaders who left their own strong pasts behind can tell us something about what led al-Sharaa to this point, and whether he might be able to transform Syria, too.
… He’s already made moves that aren’t popular with all his supporters. He’s courted Western countries and struck a measured tone on Israel, in order to secure vital international support for Syria.
He has, however, also had to deal with incidents of sectarian violence involving government forces, as well as incidents of violent extremism, including one over the weekend — an early sign perhaps, that one of his biggest challenges in postwar Syria might come from those with whom he once shared a worldview.

8 December
A year after fall of Assad, a divided Syria struggles to escape cycle of violence
While country’s return to global stage has filled many Syrians with pride, domestically old grievances threaten efforts to rebuild the state
(The Guardian) A year ago on Monday, the 53-year-long rule of the Assad family was ended after a stunning 11-day rebel offensive that took Syria and the world by surprise.
The toppling of Assad ended a ruinous 14-year-long civil war that had left 620,000 people dead and banished the fearsome security apparatus that gave the country its reputation as the “kingdom of silence”.
Assad and his family were granted asylum in Moscow in December 2024 and recent reports suggest they are living in quiet exile under Russian protection
Syrians filled the capital’s squares in their tens of thousands on Monday to celebrate the anniversary, but lurking behind the celebrations are painful questions about the country’s future.
A year after the fall of Assad, Syria’s new rulers have successfully reintegrated the country into the global community, far exceeding the expectations of even the country’s most enthusiastic advocates.
But inside Syria, tensions continue to simmer. With a transitional justice process moving too slowly for its victims, old grievances are surfacing in new cycles of violence, threatening fragile efforts to rebuild the state.
The deftness of Syria’s new president Sharaa’s diplomatic charm offensive has been stunning, especially coming from a former jihadi leader: forging a relationship with Donald Trump, easing US sanctions on Syria and becoming a fixture at international conferences.

13-14 May
Trump meets Syria’s ‘attractive, tough’ president after lifting US sanctions
US president meets Ahmed al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia as lifting of sanctions is met with jubilation in Damascus
(The Guardian) Donald Trump has met Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia, telling the former jihadist he had an “extraordinary opportunity”, and said Washington is exploring normalising ties with Damascus, a day after an announcement that all US sanctions on Syria would be lifted.
The US president met Sharaa, a former militant who fought against US forces in Iraq and had a $10m US bounty on his head until December 2024, alongside the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, for about half an hour before a conference of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as part of his four-day visit to the Middle East.
It was the first meeting between a US and a Syrian president for 25 years and a key milestone for Syria’s reintegration into the international arena after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One after the meeting that Sharaa was a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter.”
Trump says the US will lift its sanctions on Syria’s new government – video
US president Donald Trump has said he will lift all sanctions against Syria. Speaking in Riyadh, Trump told attendees at a conference, including the Saudi Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, the US ‘will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness’. He added: ‘It’s their time to shine. We’re taking them all off. Good luck, Syria, show us something very special’
Trump announces U.S. will remove sanctions on Syria
(Axios) Trump’s announcement is a dramatic shift in U.S. policy towards Syria less than six months after the collapse of the Assad regime. The sanctions crippled the Syrian economy and brought the country to the verge of bankruptcy.
… “After discussing the situation in Syria with the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman] and also with President Erdogan of Turkey, who called me the other day and asked for a very similar thing … I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness,” Trump said with the crowd bursting into a standing ovation.
Trump said the sanctions were “brutal and crippling” and served a purpose at the time, but are no longer needed.
Trump to meet Syrian leader
… During the trip, the White House also confirmed that Trump would meet with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former rebel commander whose forces helped overthrow Bashar al-Assad in 2024. The informal meeting will be the first face-to-face meeting between a US president and a Syrian leader since 2000.
… Sharaa’s pitch to woo the US president offered access to Syrian oil, reconstruction contracts and to build a Trump Tower in Damascus in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions on Syria.
“This is amazing, it worked,” said Radwan Ziadeh, a Syrian writer and activist who is close to the Syrian president. He shared a picture of an initial mockup of Trump Tower Damascus. “This is how you win his heart and mind,” he said, noting that Sharaa would probably show Trump the design during their meeting in Riyadh on Wednesday.

10 March
Syrian Government Signs Breakthrough Deal with Kurdish-Led Forces
(NYT) The agreement marked a major victory for Damascus in its quest to unify the country, as violent unrest continues to grip Syria’s coastal region.
Syria merges Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into state institutions
SDF controls much of northeastern Syria, and has held out against control from Damascus for years.
(Al Jazeera) The agreement emphasised the unity of Syria, and stipulated that “all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria” be merged “into the administration of the Syrian state, including border crossings, the airport, and oil and gas fields”.
Syria announces end of military operation against al-Assad loyalists
Defence Ministry spokesman says security threats had been neutralised in al-Assad strongholds of Latakia and Tartous
9 March
Syria’s President al-Sharaa calls for ‘peace, calm’ amid brutal clashes
Violence in Latakia, Tartous leaves hundreds dead as Syria faces deepening divides amid escalating conflict

2 March
Turkish and British officials to discuss post-Assad Syria in Ankara talks
(Reuters) – Turkish and British officials will discuss Syria’s future during a meeting in Ankara on Monday, with security, sanctions and economic development on the agenda, a Turkish foreign ministry source said on Sunday.
NATO-member Turkey was a main backer of rebels who fought Bashar al-Assad for years and it has forged close ties with the new administration in Damascus following Assad’s ouster last year. It has promised to help rebuild Syria and offered assistance to train and equip its security forces.
Reuters reported on Friday that Israel is lobbying the United States to keep Syria weak and decentralised, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey’s growing influence in Syria, according to sources familiar with the efforts.
Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said on Sunday Turkey had completed an initial phase of repairs and maintenance, including installing new equipment, at Damascus airport as part of Ankara’s efforts to help rebuild the transport hub.
28 February
Exclusive: Israel lobbies US to keep Russian bases in a ‘weak’ Syria, sources say

2 February
Russia, Seeking to Salvage Military Bases, Goes Hat in Hand to Syria
The arrival of the first top Russian diplomat in Damascus since Bashar al-Assad’s fall kicks off negotiations over the fate of Moscow’s bases in Syria.
(NYT)…lay[ing] the groundwork for Russia to keep its military bases in Syria, less than two months after rebels had toppled Moscow’s preferred strongman, Bashar al-Assad.
To do so, the delegation would need to win over a people the Russian military had bombed ruthlessly, helping Mr. al-Assad, for years.

29 January
Rebel Leader Who Overthrew al-Assad is Declared Syria’s President
The new leadership of the country said the rebel coalition leader, Ahmed al-Shara, would serve as president during a transitional period.
(NYT) The rebel coalition that seized control of Syria last month appointed its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, as president of the country to preside over a transitional period, Syrian state media reported on Wednesday.
A spokesman for the coalition, Col. Hassan Abdel Ghani, also declared that the Constitution had been nullified and the legislature and army formed under the country’s deposed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, were dissolved, according to Syria’s state news agency, SANA.
The declarations amounted to the country’s first official steps toward establishing a new government
Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa named president for transitional period
(Al Jazeera) Al-Sharaa was also authorised to form a temporary legislative council for the transitional phase, state media reports.
Al-Sharaa is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former opposition armed group. … Since Assad’s removal, HTS has become the de facto ruling party and has set up an interim government largely composed of officials from the local government it previously ran in rebel-held Idlib province.
Abdel Ghani also announced the dissolution of the armed factions in the country, which he said would be absorbed into state institutions. “All military factions are dissolved… and integrated into state institutions,” state news agency SANA quoted Abdel Ghani as saying, and also announcing “the dissolution of the defunct regime’s army” and security agencies, as well as the Baath party, which ruled Syria for decades.

26 January
Syrian fighters execute 35 in three days, war monitor says
While pro-democracy protests have taken place in recent weeks, some are worried about which direction the new leadership will take.
(The Guardian) Authorities have arrested dozens of people accused of taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to settle old scores
Since seizing power, the new authorities have sought to reassure religious and ethnic minorities in Syria that their rights would be upheld.
Members of Assad’s Alawite minority have expressed fear of retaliation over abuses during his clan’s decades in power.

12-13 January
Will the West move fast enough to lift al-Assad-era sanctions on Syria?
Damascus launches a diplomatic outreach to push for an end to restrictions.
(Al Jazeera) The United Nations says seven out of 10 Syrians require humanitarian assistance after 13 years of war
Syria’s new administration has engaged in diplomacy in the past two weeks to persuade Western powers to rapidly lift sanctions imposed during the rule of Bashar al-Assad.
But those governments want to see progress towards inclusive and democratic governance in Syria.
Concerns are growing that the euphoria following the fall of al-Assad may give way to frustration and violence if the process is delayed.
And can Syria’s new rulers make the changes needed to win the confidence of world powers?
EU agrees to tackle Syria sanctions as Western, Arab leaders meet in Riyadh
Top Western and Middle East diplomats and ministers meet to discuss sanctions relief for Syria after al-Assad’s removal.

12 January
Druse Leader Aims to Secure Place for Syrian Minorities
Despite assurances from the rebels-turned-leaders, members of some religious groups worry what life will be like for them in a post-Assad Syria
As Western diplomats explore establishing ties with the rebels who took power in Syria, a religious minority has been conducting its own diplomatic push to ensure protections for its members as the country rebuilds.
A representative of the group, the Druse, recently went to Washington to meet with lawmakers, members of the Biden and Trump administrations and diplomats to plead their case.

3 January
No date yet for landmark Syrian national dialogue, sources say
By Timour Azhari
(Reuters) – Syria’s new rulers have not yet decided when to hold a landmark national dialogue conference that is meant to bring together Syrians from across society to chart a new path for the nation after the fall of the Assad dynasty, according to five sources.
Holding the conference has been a key pledge of the rebels.
Kurds, women must be included in Syria’s transition, European ministers say
French, German ministers, in Syria, urge inclusive transition
Trip intended to send message of cautious engagement
Ministers meet Syria’s de facto new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa
Ministers say it is too early to lift sanctions on Syria
The foreign ministers of Germany and France met with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa — formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — in Damascus on Friday. They spoke on behalf of the European Union as they called for a peaceful transition for the country and said that their nations want a new relationship with Syria. Germany’s Annalena Baerbock and France’s Jean-Noel Barrot are the first ministers from the European bloc to visit Syria since the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad last month. Details of the talks have not yet been made public, but the leaders visited Syria’s notorious Sednaya prison and met with representatives of civil society.

2024

21 December
How Syria’s rebels overcame years of a bloody stalemate to topple Assad
The Syrian regime’s collapse came more quickly than the rebels had dreamed
(WaPo) The circumstances that conspired to bring down Syria’s old, ossified order were both serendipitous and part of a larger global realignment. Assad’s main military allies — Russia and Iran — abandoned him, distracted by their own troubles and disillusioned by the president’s inability to rally his own forces to the fight. His opponents, led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful Islamist rebel faction, and other groups backed by Turkey, mounted an unusually unified and formidable attack.
… Assad’s sudden ouster sparked scenes of jubilation across Syria, anguished searches for the tens of thousands of people his government killed or disappeared, and trepidation about the country’s new rulers as they stepped off battlefields and into hastily vacated palaces. A geopolitical balance in the Middle East was upended, leaving Iran and Russia coping with the loss of a strategic ally and other powers such as Turkey and Israel seizing on Syria’s tumult in search of gains.

19 December
The road back to Damascus: Syria’s new rulers face challenges in de-weaponizing supply chains
Hassan Wafai, Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, Royal Roads University
(The Conversation) … Challenges ahead
HTS’s key backers, Turkey and Qatar, will likely provide financial aid and funds to boost public opinion in the short term. However, long-term political stability in Syria hinges on sustained public support, which is deeply tied to the country’s economic situation. The new rulers in Damascus face the daunting job of reviving the economy.
A key prerequisite for reviving the Syrian economy is the de-weaponization of regional and global supply chains, which involves more than removing the imposed economic sanctions on Syria. It requires revitalizing small and medium-sized enterprises and rebuilding public organizations capable of supporting domestic supply networks compatible with regional and global supply chains.
This is easier said than done; small and medium-sized enterprises and the middle class have been decimated over 13 years of civil war. Public and private organizations in Syria have already undergone the zombification processes, becoming heavily reliant on aid to survive.

17 December
UN envoy to Syria warns that the conflict is not over
Geir Pedersen, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, has warned that the conflict “has not ended” even after the dramatic ousting of former president Bashar al-Assad, highlighting clashes between Turkish-backed and Kurdish groups in the north.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels have been involved in clashes with the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that toppled Assad, said all rebel factions would “be disbanded and the fighters trained to join the ranks of the defence ministry” during a meeting with members of the minority Druze community.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the bloc would send an ambassador back to Damascus. “We are ready to reopen our delegation, which is the European embassy, and we want this to be fully operational again,” she said. Kallas added that the EU would aim to help authorities restore basic services like electricity, water and infrastructure.
Syria’s new transitional PM calls for stability and calm

14 December
What’s next for Syria after Assad, with Beirut-based journalist and author Kim Ghattas (podcast)
Listen: How did Syria’s government rule with an iron fist for five decades, only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen war exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But what comes next? Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. Iran, Russia, Israel, the Gulf states, and the United States all have vested interests in Syria’s future, a country that this week’s GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast guest calls “the crown jewel” of proxy influence in the Middle East. Here to help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave.

Where Syria goes next after the fall of Assad
By Frederic C. Hof,Former US Special Envoy to Syria
(Atlantic Council) Although Turkey may be the most important American interlocutor in the coming days and weeks, Washington should spare no effort to create a united front toward Syria among allies and partners. France will be important in this regard, as will the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to press reports, Abu Dhabi, before the rebel offensive, attempted to ensnare Washington in a foolhardy scheme to lift US sanctions in return for Assad’s promise to halt arms flows to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now the UAE is wringing its hands over Assad’s departure, warning—perhaps because of Abu Dhabi’s antipathy toward Turkey—that something akin to Libya or Afghanistan is very much in Syria’s future—as if Libyans and Afghans have suffered anything close to what Syrians have suffered for decades under the Assads.
Undoubtedly, twenty million Syrians now face a future with many challenges and more than a few errors. Yet the “devil they knew” surely was the devil. With the Assad family and entourage gone, Syria, at long last, has a chance to achieve the kind of political transition envisioned by the 2012 Geneva Final Communique and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. They will now have an opportunity, where none previously existed, to live, work, and thrive in their country of birth instead of seeking refuge and opportunity abroad. After years of persecution by a brutal regime, imperial abuse at the hands of Iran and Russia, and betrayal by regional and international actors, Syrians have taken their liberation into their own hands. They merit the United States’ help and its willingness to listen. But the Syrian revolution, regardless of what happens next, is where it belongs: In the hands of the Syrian people.

12 December
The Scramble for Syria
Carla Norrlöf
After more than a decade of catastrophic civil war, the Assad dynasty’s abrupt collapse represents a moment of rebalancing, not only within Syria but across the Middle East. With Iranian influence diminished, Russia preoccupied and overstretched, and Turkey quietly expanding its reach, the United States has come to a strategic juncture. It can continue to pursue a policy of sanctions and military brinkmanship, or it can pivot to a more constructive form of engagement.
(Project Syndicate) After more than a decade of catastrophic civil war, the Assad dynasty’s abrupt collapse represents a moment of rebalancing, not only within Syria but across the Middle East. With Iranian influence diminished, Russia preoccupied and overstretched, and Turkey quietly expanding its reach, the United States has come to a strategic juncture. It can continue to pursue a policy of sanctions and military brinkmanship, or it can pivot to a more constructive form of engagement.
…developments have triggered a geopolitical scramble, with Turkey, Israel, and the US moving to secure their interests. Turkey is seizing the moment to strike US-backed Kurdish forces along its border, viewing them as terrorists linked to the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It desperately wants to prevent the consolidation of an autonomous Kurdish region within northeastern Syria, as that could embolden Kurdish separatists at home.

6 December
Ian Bremmer: The Global Power Vacuum Comes to Syria
The events in Syria should serve as a stark reminder that the world’s leadership vacuum is only growing. Seemingly contained events in places like Ukraine and Gaza can echo far beyond their borders, and into the future.
(Project Syndicate) Just as the yearlong war between Israel and Hezbollah gave way to a ceasefire agreement, a new front in the Middle East conflict opened in Syria.
The two events are connected. The dormant 13-year-old Syrian civil war was reignited when anti-government fighters opposed to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime launched a surprise offensive on one of Syria’s largest cities, Aleppo. Syrian army forces, who had been in control of most of the country’s territory since 2017-18, thanks to Iranian and Russian support, were swiftly routed. With their attention elsewhere, Iran and Russia were caught off guard and failed to counter the rebel advance.