Israel-U.S.-Iran Gulf War III 1-31 March

Third Gulf War — expansion and geopolitical ramifications

21 March
Strait of Hormuz 3-Week Recap | What is the Status of the Ships, Transits and Escort Mission?
What’s Going On With Shipping (WGOWS): Recap of the first three weeks of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran with a focus on commercial shipping in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

29 March
Israeli strikes and US troop buildup put Pakistan’s peacemaker role under pressure
Saeed Shah
Islamabad is attempting high-wire diplomacy between US and Iran, but Israel could spoil any chance of success

28 March
Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf
Michael Christopher Low
While the rest of the world is mainly concerned about the energy disruptions caused by the Iran war, the Gulf countries are more anxious about the Islamic Republic’s threats to their desalination facilities. If the US attempts to seize Kharg Island, it could spell disaster for the region’s “saltwater kingdoms.”
(Project Syndicate) The oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf are often described as petrostates. But the US-Israeli war with Iran has highlighted that they are also saltwater kingdoms, societies whose survival depends on desalination, or converting seawater into potable water at industrial scale. Life in the Gulf relies on the “black magic” of turning oil and oil revenue into water. This technological prowess has fueled the region’s dynamic growth, but now it looms as its greatest vulnerability.
US Escalation Is the Most Likely Scenario in Iran
Nouriel Rubini
If Donald Trump walks away from the war with Iran now, the threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will remain, risk premia on oil prices will stay permanently higher, and Trump’s own popularity will sink even further ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Despite the obvious risks, he has every reason to try to “finish the job.”
(Project Syndicate) … Trump (and Israel) will feel the need to escalate to try to “finish the job.” That means seizing Kharg Island, from which 90% of Iran’s energy flows, and intensifying the daily bombing campaigns to degrade the regime’s (new) leadership and capacity to project power militarily. Such a strategy is inherently high-risk, but it could lead—in two or three months—to effective regime collapse and a more stable Middle East. The world economy and markets would no longer be subject to perennial blackmail by a regime with a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf states and their oil facilities would be safe and secure.
That is the optimistic scenario. If Kharg Island is taken but the regime does not collapse, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait off the Houthi-controlled Yemeni coastline will remain vulnerable, as will the Gulf states and their energy facilities. If the regime holds on, the stage could be set for a repeat of the 1970s stagflation
Nonetheless, I see escalation and a US-Israeli victory (with regime collapse in a few months) as more likely than escalation and a US-Israeli defeat. The first scenario is obviously better for everyone, and better than the unstable status quo. But, of course, the second scenario could be worse than the status quo. Ultimately, the decision comes down to Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom are politically doomed if they cannot improve on the current situation in a way that allows them to save face.
The case for eliminating Iran’s fanatical Islamist regime remains strong. For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has been a curse on its own people and the wider region. While subjecting Iranians to oppression and economic misery, it has consistently threatened Israel and meddled in Sunni-majority countries and or countries with large Shiite populations, many of which—including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and Libya—have become failed or semi-failed states. In addition to destabilizing the entire Middle East, it has sponsored terrorism around the world, helped fuel mass migration into Europe, and supported Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles can reach all of Europe while an Iran with nuclear weapons would be a direct threat to all the Middle East and Europe.
Regardless of what one thinks about Trump’s choice to go to war, everyone should want an endgame in which the current regime can no longer threaten global economic and financial stability or security. Trying to finish the job is better than the alternatives, even given the obvious risks.

Pakistan secures Iran deal to send 20 ships through Strait of Hormuz
Islamabad’s diplomatic push bears fruit as the world watches for signs of a broader breakthrough.

26-27 March
Ignore the bombast – the Iran war is only likely to end one way
(CNN) Strip away the bombast and superlatives. Let the apocalyptic, threat-laden deadlines slide. The dynamics of President Donald Trump’s war on Iran suggest it is likely to end with a whimper not a bang.
Trump has stumbled into the trap of many presidents before him: the illusion of a swiftly executed military operation, bringing enduring political change. But war and peace is never that binary. And as Trump gives his negotiators more time to make headway, the stage is increasingly set for the vague greyness that usually ends conflicts, to limp this one to a close: talks. …

Rubio pushes postwar plan for Strait of Hormuz after meeting G7 allies skeptical about Iran strategy
(AP) — Top diplomats from the Group of Seven countries showed divisions with the United States over the Iran war but agreed Friday during a meeting in France to call for an immediate halt to attacks against civilians and urge the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
Iran starts to formalize its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz with a ‘toll booth’ regime
(AP) — Iran appears to be setting itself up as the gatekeeper for the Strait of Hormuz. The move could cement Tehran’s de facto chokehold over the crucial waterway and formalize its ability to keep its own oil flowing to China.
Iranian communications to the United Nations maritime authority and the experience of ships transiting the strait suggest the creation of something akin to a “toll booth.” Ships must enter Iranian waters and be vetted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. At least two vessels have paid for passage.

Trump’s Gulf allies push to have their concerns addressed before Iran war ends
(CNN) Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushing Trump to continue the war and further degrade Iran’s capabilities shows just how much Gulf countries are worried about the viability of their economic models in today’s geopolitical environment. They didn’t want a regime change war against Iran to start, but with the United States having now broken the geopolitical status quo, they want the Americans to own the outcome.
Trump extends pause on striking Iran’s energy plants into April
Iranian official calls US proposal to end conflict ‘unfair’
Trump says talks with Iran going “very well”
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he will extend a pause on attacks against Iran’s energy plants into April and that talks with Iran were going “very well,” but an Iranian official said a U.S. proposal for ending the war ​as “one-sided and unfair.”
What It Would Take to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
(Bloomberg) A return to normal traffic through the strait is unlikely while war is raging. And once the conflict eventually abates, it’s unclear how soon sailings might resume and at what level. Merely the threat of Iranian attacks has left most ship operators unwilling to brave the journey since the US and Israel began to bombard Iran on Feb. 28. Their fear won’t be entirely dispelled once the fighting dies down, or even if there’s a formal ceasefire. Some form of naval escort is likely to be required at first, and such an operation presents a host of risks and limitations.

24-25 March
Tehran Dismisses U.S. Cease-Fire Conditions as Israel Orders 48 Hours of Attacks
(NYT Live) Tehran offered its own terms to end the fighting that include a demand for reparations. Israel, concerned that the war might end before it can dismantle Iran’s weapons programs, plans to ramp up its attacks.
The United States and Iran struggled to find a way to begin negotiations over peace terms on Wednesday, with each insisting it had the upper hand in the war.
The United States circulated a 15-point peace plan, diplomats said, demanding what would amount to a complete termination of Iran’s nuclear program and strict limits on its missile arsenal.

Iran Announces the Strait of Hormuz is Closed to the US & Israel | For Everyone Else, $2M Please!
(WGOWS) A trickle of ships is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz under the auspices of the Iranians, with charges that they are paying $2 million apiece; meanwhile US and Israeli ships are excluded from the Strait, and it is not clear how the US and Israel will end this conflict.
Iran Says ‘Non-Hostile’ Ships Can Sail Through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships with no ties to Israel or the United States would be allowed to pass, the government said, but it was unclear if any vessels would try.
(NYT) Iran has told the United Nations’ maritime organization that “non-hostile” ships may pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been effectively closed to tankers since the U.S.-Israeli military campaign began last month.
Trump Says Iran Offers ‘Present’ As More Troops Head to the Middle East
Around 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division will support operations against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported
(Bloomberg) The US is preparing to deploy more troops to the Middle East as the war with Iran drags on. … The decision to put boots on the ground in Iran hasn’t been made final yet, the officials said. Either way, the move would be a significant shift in the conflict.
As more US troops head to the Middle East, President Donald Trump has increasingly looked for an off ramp for the war. Trump signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations, and while he wouldn’t detail the gift, he confirmed it was related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, there remained broad uncertainty about who the US is negotiating with, the structure of talks, and the outlines of any potential agreement, and Iran and Israel showed no signs of letting up in the conflict.
Despite overtures for negotiations, there are some warning signs the conflict could explode into a much larger regional war. The New York Times reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is pushing Trump to stay in the war. Sources told Bloomberg the region’s most powerful states — Iran-rival Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in particular — are losing patience with Iranian strikes that have already hit ports, energy facilities and airports. But those states would only join the war if Tehran makes good on its threats to attack vital power and water infrastructure — a high threshold.
Meanwhile, if there’s one clear winner from the war it is Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin is earning the most from its oil exports since just after its troops marched into Ukraine in 2022, boosting crude flows amid soaring prices and eased sanctions. Russia’s oil income had been heading down and while Putin has warned that the windfall will be temporary, for now Moscow’s own war chest is getting a big boost — about $270 million a day, up from $135 million.

23 March
Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Send Conflicting Signals on Peace Prospects
President Trump said talks were underway. A top Iranian official denied that, while other Iranians said messages were being traded through intermediaries.
(NYT) President Trump told reporters that the United States and Iran were engaging in “very strong talks” toward resolving the war that began on Feb. 28, which had produced “many, like 15 points,” of agreement.
Energy, water, bonds: What are Iran’s targets if Trump hits power plants?
Trump’s Strait of Hormuz deadline for Iran raises concerns about attacks on energy in the Middle East.
(Al Jazeera) How did Iran respond to Trump’s ultimatum?
The IRGC threatened to retaliate if Iranian power plants were targeted, saying it would hit power plants in Israel as well as any supplying electricity to military bases hosting US troops and assets in the region.
Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also posted on X on Sunday: “Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the US military budget are legitimate targets. US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets. We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice.”
An IRGC statement shared by state media on Monday, said: “The lying … US President has claimed that the Revolutionary Guards intends to attack the water desalination plants and cause hardship to the people of the countries in the region.”
The statement added: “We are determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence … If you hit electricity, we hit electricity.”
“The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” the IRGC said in a statement.
At the same time, Iranian leaders have insisted that the strait is only closed to the US and Israel.

21 March
The Gravity of the War in Iran (Interactive)
(NYT) Raising the stakes of the war to impose costs on more and more countries is part of Iran’s strategy. Faced with an overwhelming aerial bombardment that has killed many of its leaders, Tehran views the moment as existential.
“From the Iranian perspective, they were going to go big, and this is going to be the final war,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Iranian government decided it would “either emerge standing with a place in the region, or they’re going to go down fighting,” she said.
With its military depleted and overmatched, Iran is trying to make the conflict too politically combustible — and too expensive — for Washington to sustain.
To that end, the Iranians have been striking data centers and oil facilities in U.S.-friendly Gulf nations. They have also paralyzed ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil soaring beyond $100 a barrel and setting off fears of crippling global inflation.

20 March
Trump Risks Dragging Out Iran War With Debate Over Seizing Kharg Island
(Bloomberg) US officials said the White House is sending more than 2,000 additional Marines to the Middle East as it weighs a plan to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, a ground operation that would carry huge risks for President Donald Trump.
… Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform Friday evening that the US was close to realizing its goals “as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East,” and telling American allies it was their responsibility, not his, to secure the vital Strait of Hormuz.

18-19 March
(The World) The South Pars natural gas field, which came under attack this week, is part of the world’s largest such field — and an energy lifeline for Iran. Israel’s attack on the field prompted Iran to target energy infrastructure in other Middle East countries in response. The Iran war has dealt a massive energy shock to the global economy by choking off most exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also attacked ships and key export facilities in its Persian Gulf neighbors, putting more upward pressure on energy prices, even though its Gulf neighbors — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — are not directly taking part in the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Hours after Wednesday’s attack, US President Donald Trump said that Israel would not attack South Pars again, but warned on social media that if Iran continued striking Qatar’s energy infrastructure, the United States would retaliate and “massively blow up the entirety” of the field. In the case of South Pars, the target is not Iran’s exports but its largest domestic energy source in a country that sometimes struggles to produce enough electricity.
Strikes hit world’s largest natural gas field in Iran, and Tehran retaliates with more attacks
(AP) — Iran broadened its strikes on major energy facilities in the Middle East, eliciting strong warnings Thursday from Gulf Arab states that called it a dangerous escalation that threatened to draw them into direct combat with Tehran.
The strikes come after Israel killed Iran’s intelligence minister and reportedly attacked the world’s largest natural gas field in Iran as the war escalated pressure on the region’s economic lifeblood: energy.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all denounced the Iranian attacks targeting their natural gas fields, with Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat saying assaults on the kingdom meant “what little trust there was before has completely been shattered.”
About 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz as Iran exports millions of barrels of oil despite the war
(AP) — … Many of the vessels that passed through the strait were so-called “dark” transits evading Western government sanctions and oversight that likely have ties to Iran, maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence said. More recently, vessels with ties to India and Pakistan have also successfully crossed the strait as governments stepped up negotiations.

18 March
US and Israel’s strategy to kill Iran’s top figures may prove counterproductive
Peter Beaumont, Senior international correspondent
Attempt to ‘decapitate’ state may harden resistance instead of destabilising regime
The killing of Ali Larijani weakens Iran—but at a cost
The regime is now less predictable
(The Economist) Israel depicts the killings of senior Iranian officials as paving the way for the Islamic Republic’s overthrow or collapse. “We are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it,” Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said after Mr Larijani’s death was announced. In a separate raid, Israel says it also killed the commander and deputy commander of the Basij militia, a paramilitary force that has been used to quell protests. Over two weeks into the war, Israel still seems to have excellent intelligence on the whereabouts of Iranian officials. It is also bombing bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s most elite fighting force. It has even hit street checkpoints manned by the Basij in Tehran.

Iran threatens Gulf energy facilities after Israeli attack on its largest gasfield
Revolutionary Guards say they will strike infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar after South Pars field hit
Trump wants no more strikes on Iran’s energy sites – report
Donald Trump does not want any ‌further strikes on Iran’s ​energy infrastructure after Israel struck facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars gas field today, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing US officials.
The officials told the Journal that Trump supported that attack as a message to Tehran ‌over its blocking of the strait of Hormuz, but is now against any further attacks.
But, according to the Journal’s report, the US president could ⁠be open to ​targeting more Iranian energy ​facilities, depending on whether ​Tehran impedes traffic in ⁠the critical waterway.

16 March
Netanyahu Won Trump, But He’s Losing America
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
– President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a joint military campaign with Israel against Iran may prove a short-term success with heavy long-term costs.
– Netanyahu’s decades-long campaign to court the Republican Party’s most conservative elements has led to a decline in support for Israel among rank-and-file Democrats in America.
– Israel’s support has declined most among Democrats, especially younger ones, and cracks are also emerging in Israel’s standing with younger Republicans.

13 March
Why Trump Didn’t Plan for the Strait of Hormuz
In wartime, the enemy always gets a vote.
By Phillips Payson O’Brien
(The Atlantic) Astonishingly, President Trump and his aides were caught unprepared when Iran, under air assault from the United States and Israel, retaliated by targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf region and specifically through the Strait of Hormuz. Military planners have pointed out for decades that the waterway—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes—is highly vulnerable to Iranian assault. But the Trump administration acknowledged in classified briefings, CNN reported last night, that it did not make provisions for a closure because officials assumed that such a move would hurt Iran more than the United States.
In its failure to anticipate Iran’s reaction, the administration ignored a dynamic that former Defense Secretary James Mattis, a first-term Trump appointee, was fond of pointing out: Once hostilities begin, “the enemy gets a vote.” U.S. leaders have drastically underestimated the Iranian regime’s ability to survive, adjust, and strike back. Just two weeks into a war that began at a time of the president’s choosing, the U.S. appears uncertain about what to do next.

12 March
Scowcroft Group Snapshot: Trump May Get Neither Regime Change, Nor a Short War
(Policy) Even if the White House wanted to back down, Iran’s retaliation capability is the key deciding factor. Until the U.S. sufficiently degrades the potential for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, hit critical infrastructure in the region, target U.S. forces and vessels, and threaten the safety of U.S. diplomats and civilians in the region, the U.S. military will likely need to stay engaged. This probably delays any attempt to “TACO” as Trump cannot credibly claim victory while Iranian missiles and drones are flying.
The Iranian regime will likely endure. The accession of slain former leader Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader and Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region signal that the regime remains committed to surviving; inflicting costs on the U.S., Israel, and allies; and emerging from the war with some ability to deter future attacks. Even amid reports that the new supreme leader is injured, the regime is likely stable given it is internally cohesive, ideologically committed, deeply embedded, militarily capable, and has a strategic doctrine that plans ahead for leadership decapitation.
Israel likely sees benefits in the conflict continuing. Even if the U.S. elects to take an off- ramp, Israeli strikes against Iranian proxy forces and other assets in the region could continue unless Trump directly tells Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to stop.
If the war continues, what are the expected impacts? Hormuz must be opened before any real oil-price relief is felt, and any risk of strikes will keep maritime insurance rates high (the announced $20 billion in reinsurance from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is not a sufficient backstop), extending market uncertainty.
As long as Iran retains the capability, attacks will continue to damage energy and utility infrastructure in the region, with the effects reaching across global markets. As the U.S. midterms approach, Team Trump will be increasingly worried about the impacts on U.S. prices, given that affordability is a top voter concern. IEA member states agreed Mar. 11 to the largest-ever release of emergency oil reserves (400 million barrels).

11 March
Ian Bremmer: How Trump’s Iran gamble backfired
(GZERO media) Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump launched a war of choice to topple Iran’s regime expecting a quick, clean win. What he’s gotten is a regime that’s proving far more capable of enduring and fighting back than he anticipated. Seven American troops are dead, 140 wounded. The Strait of Hormuz has been shut for almost ten days, creating the largest oil supply shock in history. Iranian missiles and drones keep striking targets across the Gulf and Israel. And in a show of defiance, Tehran replaced the assassinated Supreme Leader with his hardline son.
Trump wants out. But contrary to his claim that he can end the war any time he wants, he has no easy exit.

‘The shine has been taken off’: Dubai faces existential threat as foreigners flee conflict
Tens of thousands of residents and tourists have left UAE since the US and Israel started bombing Iran two weeks ago, leaving beach bars, malls and hotels eerily empty
The economic consequences of the conflict for the UAE are likely to be significant, but nowhere more so than Dubai, where tourism generates around $30bn every year. Over 90% of its residents are foreigners, including one of the world’s highest concentration of billionaires, savouring the lack of tax on income, capital gains and inheritance.
Unlike other Gulf emirates, Dubai does not have vast oil resources to fall back on. Analysts say the financial losses will be stark if the war drags on and the city’s reputation as a haven for tourism and western confidence in business, banking and real estate investments continues to erode. On Wednesday, Citibank and Standard Chartered bank evacuated their Dubai employees “due to heightened security concerns”.

9-11 March
UN Security Council passes resolution condemning Iran for strikes on Persian Gulf states
(CBC) Resolution ignores ‘root causes’ of war, Iranian ambassador says
2nd resolution calling for end to all hostilities fails to pass, as widening war upends global oil supply
The widening war in the Middle East continues to upend the global oil supply, as Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships they said disobeyed orders.
In response, the International Energy Agency agreed to release the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in its history to stabilize prices.
The Israeli military, meanwhile, expanded its attacks on Lebanon’s capital beyond the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs and renewed attacks on Tehran.
Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with G7 leaders today, including U.S. President Donald Trump, about the ongoing hostilities.
Officials say the war has killed at least 1,300 people in Iran, at least 570 in Lebanon and at least 13 in Israel.

Israel prepared to continue Iran war for ‘as long as necessary’
The Israeli military is prepared to continue its war with Iran for “as long as necessary”, a spokesperson told reporters late on Wednesday.

Trump Can’t Decide Whether the Iran War Is Still Going On
The president seems to be at odds with both himself and his secretary of defense about the status of the conflict.
By David A. Graham
… During an interview with CBS News yesterday afternoon, President Trump all but declared victory. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. …
Yet the same afternoon, the Department of Defense posted on X, “We have Only Just Begun to Fight,” mangling a famous quotation from John Paul Jones, the father of the U.S. Navy. Reporters at the press conference, perplexed, asked Trump about the gap. “You said the war is ‘very complete,’ but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning, so which is it?”
“Well, I think you could say both,” Trump replied.
U.S. dismissed Ukraine deal for anti-Iran drone tech last year
(Axios) Nearly seven months ago, Ukrainian officials tried to sell the U.S. their battle-proven technology for downing Iranian-made attack drones. They even made a PowerPoint presentation…showing how it could protect American forces and their allies in a Middle East war.
The Trump administration dismissed the Ukrainians, only to reverse course last week because of more-than-expected drone strikes from Iran.
US attacks Iran’s mine-laying boats in strait of Hormuz as tensions rise over oil
(The Guardian) Intelligence sources claim Iran has begun mine laying as US energy secretary backtracks on claim US escorted a ship through strategic chokepoint
At a defence department briefing, the top US general, Dan Caine, addressed the possibility of the US navy escorting vessels through the strait. “We’re looking at a range of options there, and we’ll figure out how to solve problems as they come to us,” he told reporters.
Alongside Caine, the Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, said if “Iran does anything to stop the flow of oil within the strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far”.
US says 16 Iranian mine-laying ships ‘eliminated’, as Iran launches attacks across region
(BBC) US Central Command overnight released footage of what it says are several Iranian naval vessels being destroyed by US attacks.
Centcom says the targets “eliminated” on Tuesday included 16 mine-layers near the Strait of Hormuz.
US Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Dan Caine said during a Pentagon briefing on Monday that destroying Iran’s navy was among the three key objectives of Operation Epic Fury.
Vast Ship Clusters and Speeding Tankers Point to Hormuz Jamming
(Bloomberg via Financial Post) At least a dozen clusters of ships have appeared near the Strait of Hormuz, a likely sign of elevated electronic interference around the waterway that’s central to the US and Israeli war against Iran.
Some of the clusters appear to form distinctive shapes, including an apparent circle of vessels inland near Abu Dhabi, and one in the form of an inverted “Z” off Ruwais in the United Arab Emirates, the data showed on Monday. Other groups are in the Gulf of Oman, possibly indicating vessels waiting in groups for tensions to ease, or secure clear loading dates, before entering Hormuz.
The odd arrays of vessels point to ships’ navigational systems being interfered with by electronic jamming, making them appear on tracking platforms away from their actual locations. Such practices often spike at times of heightened geopolitical tensions, as militaries engage in electronic warfare.
Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say
Iran still has somewhere between 80 and 90 percent of its small boats and mine layers intact.
That means if Iran decides to escalate, they could feasibly deploy hundreds of mines in that waterway.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which now effectively controls the strait along with Iran’s traditional navy, has the capability to deploy a “gauntlet” of dispersed mine-laying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries.

Trump Signals Possible End to War, Floats Removing Oil Sanctions
Trump Says Iran War Will Be ‘Finished Pretty Quickly’
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
President Donald Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and have the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump predicted the war with Iran would resolve “very soon” and vowed to bomb “at a much, much harder level” if Iran disrupted oil supplies.
Trump said he is looking to keep oil prices down, which he said went up artificially due to the conflict, and is considering options to combat surging oil and gasoline prices.
President Trump Tells Tankers Show Some Guts! | Strait of Hormuz Update for March 9, 2026
(What’s Going On With Shipping) President Trump challenges commercial tankers to run the Strait of Hormuz. What is the Maritime Administration telling ships about the region and where is the U.S. Navy? We also provide an update on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, recap past attacks.

8 March
Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader
Move could lead to escalation of war as Donald Trump has already called Mojtaba Khamenei an unacceptable choice
(The Guardian) … For many analysts, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment is a symbolic move designed to make the regime still appear strong and determined not to bow to western pressure.
The 56-year-old cleric has never held elected office nor formally occupied a senior position within Iran’s government. He has spent much of his life at the centre of power in Iran while remaining largely out of public view.
Born in 1969 in the north-eastern city of Mashhad, Khamenei was raised within the political and clerical world that emerged after the 1979 revolution. As a young man he studied theology in the seminaries of Qom and reportedly took part in the final stages of the Iran-Iraq war.
Unlike many figures in Iran’s leadership, Khamenei never pursued elected office or a prominent government role. Instead, he gradually became an influential presence inside his father’s office, where he was widely seen as part of a small circle managing political access to the supreme leader.
Over the years he cultivated close relationships with conservative clerics and elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a connection analysts say strengthened his standing within the system.
Iran’s New Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei’s Son, Is a Mysterious Figure
The succession of the slain leader’s son is seen as a signal of the Islamic republic’s defiance of Israel and the United States, and of continuity during crisis.
(NYT) … [He] has been an influential figure in the shadows of power, coordinating military and intelligence operations at his father’s office. He is known to have very close ties to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and was considered their favored candidate.
Unlike his father, Mr. Khamenei, 56, carries the full religious credentials as an ayatollah at the moment of his ascension. He was known for teaching popular Shiite seminary classes.
But his personality or politics outside of his father’s tight inner circle are not known. He seldom speaks or appears in public. And now he will take the helm not just as Iran’s new religious and political authority, but also as the commander in chief of its armed forces.

Letters from an American March 7, 2026
Heather Cox Richardson
At 8:50 yesterday [Friday] morning, President Donald J. Trump posted on social media: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.
As Alex Leary and Vera Bergengruen of the Wall Street Journal observed, the demand for unconditional surrender was quite a shift from Trump’s original promise to the people of Iran that the future is “yours to take,” or even his early claim that he was hoping to knock out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump’s shift highlighted that there appears to have been very little planning for what would happen after U.S. and Israeli bombs began to rain on Iran.
Leary and Bergengruen noted that Trump was bouncing ideas for the next stage of the assault off journalists even as ships stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz, American citizens were stranded in the Middle East, the war spread to countries throughout the region, and U.S. military personnel died.

Should the US Navy Start Targeting & Seizing Iranian Tankers | Did the US Navy Just Torpedo Shipping
Sal Mercogliano
(What’s Going on With Shipping) We discuss the sinking of the Iranian frigate Dena by the USS Charlotte off the coast of Sri Lanka and the impact this is having on commercial shipping. We also look at past escort operations in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea and why such an operation may not work this time and also discuss a strategy that would target Iranian supertankers on the high seas.
The final voyage of the Iranian warship sunk by the US
(BBC) … The sinking marks a dramatic widening of the war between America, Israel and Iran. And, though it occurred in international waters of the Indian Ocean and outside India’s jurisdiction, it is an awkward moment for Delhi.
“The war has come to our doorsteps. That is not a good thing,” says retired Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh.
For some strategists, the episode carries broader implications for India’s regional standing.
“By sinking a vessel returning from an Indian-hosted multilateral exercise, Washington effectively turned India’s maritime neighbourhood into a war zone, raising uncomfortable questions about India’s authority in its own backyard,” [Indian strategic affairs expert Brahma] Chellaney wrote.
Just days before its destruction, the Dena had been a diplomatic guest of the Indian Navy.
The ship had travelled to Visakhapatnam, a sun-washed port city on India’s east coast, to participate in the International Fleet Review 2026 and Exercise Milan, a large multilateral naval exercise meant to showcase India’s growing maritime leadership.
Iran’s Guards challenges Trump to have US Navy escort oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz
(Reuters) – A spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards challenged U.S. President Donald Trump to deploy U.S. naval vessels to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media reported on Friday.
The U.S. Navy could begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, Trump said on Tuesday. The conflict in the Middle East has halted shipping and energy through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Guards spokesperson Alimohammad Naini said: “Iran strongly welcomes the escort of oil tankers and that U.S. forces will be there for the crossing of the Strait of Hormuz. And we are, by the way, awaiting their presence,” according to state media
“We recommend that, before making any decision, the Americans remember the fire on the American supertanker Bridgeton in 1987 and the oil tankers that were recently targeted,” Naini said
At least nine vessels have been attacked since the U.S. and Israel first began strikes on Iran on Saturday and the Guards ordered ships not to cross the strategic waterway

6 March
Operational Excellence, Strategic Incompetence
The president and his advisers are in the grip of “victory disease.”
By Tom Nichols
(The Atlantic) The war in Iran has reaffirmed two truths. One is that the United States is blessed with the most professional and effective military in the world. The men and women of the American armed forces can conduct missions of almost any size with formidable competence, from special operations to seize a rogue-state president to a large-scale war. The other truth is that the Trump administration, when it comes to strategy, is incompetent.
… “victory disease,” meaning that victory in battle encourages leaders to seek out more battles, and then to believe that winning those battles means that they are winning the larger war or achieving some grand strategic aim—right up until the moment they realize that they have overreached and find themselves facing a military disaster or even total defeat.

5 March
How arming the Kurds in Iran could lead to “civil war on steroids”
As Trump looks for new ways to pressure Tehran, backing Kurdish militants could open a volatile new front—alarming Turkey and risking a dangerous escalation.
GZERO Staff
Washington appears to be exploring a familiar playbook: arming Kurdish groups to add pressure on the Iranian regime. But according to Brookings Senior Fellow Thomas Wright, the strategy is murky and potentially risky. Reports suggest the US may consider aiding Kurdish militants inside Iran, including PJAK, a group affiliated with the PKK. That connection alone could inflame tensions with Turkey, which views the PKK as a terrorist organization and a direct threat to its national security.
Any move that strengthens Kurdish armed groups could also disrupt the fragile peace process between Ankara and Kurdish militants. Without a clear plan for what comes after increased pressure on Tehran, actions meant to weaken the regime could destabilize the country instead—potentially fragmenting Iran and creating a geopolitical vacuum in the Middle East.
What to know about the Kurds and their potential involvement in the Iran war
(AP) — Thousands of battle-hardened Kurds in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran with U.S. backing, Kurdish officials told The Associated Press. …
The addition of armed Kurds now, as Israel and the U.S. continue to strike Iran, would significantly challenge Iranian defenses but also risk pulling Iraq — where some of the Iranian Kurdish groups have bases — deeper into the conflict.
The Kurds are among the largest stateless ethnic groups in the world, with roughly 30 million living as minorities in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. They speak their own language, with several dialects, and most are Sunni Muslims.
Although Kurds have never had their own state, they govern a semiautonomous area in northern Iraq and for years de facto ruled much of northeastern Syria. Many have waged insurgency campaigns seeking to establish their own nation called Kurdistan.
The 9 million Kurds in Iran live mainly in a stretch of land along the country’s western borders with Iraq and Turkey. They have a long history of grievances and rebellions against both the current Islamic Republic and the monarchy that preceded it.
In the run up to the current war, five Iranian Kurdish groups formed a coalition dedicated to overthrowing the Islamic Republic and establishing the Kurdish people’s right to self-determination. On Thursday, a sixth group joined.

4 March
Trump’s Consequential War
Bob Rae
I am not a pearl clutcher by nature. But unleashing an attack on a ruler in a willful violation of “stupid rules of engagement” marks a new low.
(Policy) …In a press conference Monday morning, [Secretary of War Pete] Hegseth celebrated Israel and its strikes alongside the U.S., while he condemned “so many of our traditional allies who wring their hands and clutch their pearls, hemming and hawing about the use of force.”
In explaining the Trump doctrine of military intervention, the former Fox News host said: “America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history…. No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don’t waste time or lives.”
The Trump administration has given many explanations for the decision to assassinate Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it was the Israelis. President Trump gave a whole lot of reasons, including regime change by means of a great rising up of the Iranian people, “obliterating” (again) the Iranian navy, air force and missile capacity, but then saying he’s ready to talk to Iranian “leaders”, admitting that most of the people he originally wanted to talk to are now dead. …

Shipping companies welcome Trump’s proposal to protect shipping
Shipping companies welcome the idea of an escort for blocked ships. “A naval escort is urgently needed to enable the ships trapped in the Persian Gulf to leave the war zone in a timely manner,” said the German Shipowners’ Association.

Airstrikes hit Iran-Iraq border as US and Israeli plan to mobilise Kurds gathers pace
Experts say backing Iran’s ethnic communities could ‘open up a hornet’s nest’ and increase risk of chaotic civil war
Intense waves of airstrikes have hit dozens of military positions, frontier posts and police stations along northern parts of Iran’s border with Iraq in what appears to be preparation by US and Israel for a new front in their war.
A US official with knowledge of the discussions between Washington and Kurdish officials said the US was ready to provide air support if Kurdish peshmerga fighters crossed the border from northern Iraq.
A spokesperson for Israel’s military said the air force had been “heavily operating in western Iran to degrade Iranian capabilities there and to open up a way to Tehran and create freedom of operations there”.
Both Axios and Fox News, citing a US official, on Wednesday reported that the militias had begun their offensive inside Iran. There was no official confirmation or any immediate detail about how many fighters were involved or where they were operating from.
Kurdish officials told the Associated Press that Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq were preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the US has asked Iraqi Kurds to support them
How the War in Iran Spreads Beyond the Middle East
Iran is poised to join a series of interlocking conflicts across two continents and 800 million people
Mark Leon Goldberg
(Global Dispatches Substack) …if and when Donald Trump declares victory and moves on, the dust won’t settle. The conflict in Iran would just enter a different phase. Reporting from Alex Ward of The Wall Street Journal (an excellent journalist with well-placed sources) suggests that the Trump administration is looking for proxies on the ground to take up the fight—potentially Kurdish militias. Other outlets have reported the same.
From a humanitarian perspective, the big fear is that a new kind of chaos may be unleashed—one that engulfs not just the Middle East, but the Horn of Africa as well. Most commentary I’ve seen has not taken into account the fact that many of the key players currently defending themselves against Iran’s relentless attacks are also, on the other side of the Red Sea, fighting each other in a series of interlocking conflicts. That same dynamic may soon play out in Iran.
If so, a massive geography stretching from South Sudan to Iran may become enmeshed in a web of conflict—devastating the lives and livelihoods of some 800 million people. It’s a grim scenario, but one that may yet unfold in tandem with conflict in Iran.

As Mideast conflict widens, US says attacks on Iran will last weeks and intensify
(AP) The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the lack of any apparent exit plan set the stage for a prolonged conflict with far-reaching consequences. Places deemed safe havens in the Mideast like Dubai have seen incoming fire; energy prices shot up; and U.S. allies pledged to help stop Iranian missiles and drones.
Trump said operations are likely to last four to five weeks but that he was prepared “to go far longer than that.”
US sinks Iranian warship as Iran warns of widespread destruction in the Middle East
(AP) — U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a torpedo from a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean Tuesday night…as Washington and Israel intensified their bombardment Wednesday of Iran’s security forces and other symbols of power. Iran launched more missiles and drones as it warned of the destruction of military and economic infrastructure across the Middle East.
Sri Lankan authorities said 32 people were rescued from the ship, which they said had 180 people on board and sank outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters. The country’s navy said it had recovered 87 bodies.
The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran, more than 70 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. It has disrupted the supply of the world’s oil and gas, snarled international shipping, and stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers in the Middle East.
NATO Air Defenses Shoot Down Iranian Missile Headed Toward Turkey
The scope expands: The war touched NATO for the first time, as Turkey announced the military alliance had shot down an Iranian missile heading for Turkey. If Turkey does come under attack, it “would mark a major escalation and could activate NATO’s mutual defense clause,” NYT’s Ben Hubbard notes.
A strike on Turkey could also alter Turkey’s relationship with Iran. The two countries have longstanding diplomatic and trade relations, and Turkey was heavily involved in recent diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing the current war.
Across the region beyond Iran, there were also fresh Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon (where officials said 72 people have now been killed) and Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Power went out across all of Iraq.

3 March
America’s Latest Middle-East Fiasco
US President Donald Trump did not decide to go to war against Iran because he had run out of diplomatic options, or because an orderly regime change had become realistic, or because military strikes would neutralize any imminent security threat. He launched another US war in the Middle East – toppling a core campaign promise to his MAGA base – to advance his own personal and political interests. Iranians and people throughout the region will pay a high price, but so could Americans if Trump’s lawlessness abroad advances his authoritarian ambitions at home
By The editors
(Project Syndicate) The Big Picture
Richard Haass: Trump’s Risky War of Choice in Iran
Stephen Holmes: The Perils of a Power Vacuum in Iran
Timothy Snyder: Why Attack Iran?
The Trump administration’s propaganda about its foreign policy motivations for starting a regime-change war in Iran strains credulity. Instead, the surrounding evidence implies that the US attack could very well be about undermining American democracy, enriching Donald Trump, or both.
Aziz Huq : How Bombing Iran May Blow Back on America
Pegah Banihashemi: Ayatollah Khamenei’s Deadly Legacy
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s authority rested on a mix of religious legitimacy, military loyalty, and economic control, all anchored within constitutional mechanisms that concentrate power while preserving the outward appearance of legality. This authoritarian system will most likely prevent genuine, lasting change in Iran.

1-3 March
Israel Attacks Clerical Body Meant to Choose Iran’s Next Leader
(Bloomberg) The Israeli military appeared to attack Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the clerical body tasked with choosing the next supreme leader, on Tuesday.
Both Iranian and Israeli media reported a strike on an Assembly of Experts site in Qom, a city south of Tehran. But they differed on the outcome. Israel’s Kan News, citing a senior Israeli official, said the assembly was meeting to pick a replacement for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said no such meeting was taking place at the time.
How succession works in Iran and who could be the country’s next supreme leader
(AP) — The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after almost 37 years in power raises paramount questions about Iran’s future.
The contours of a complex succession process began to take shape the morning after Khamenei’s killing in an airstrike campaign by the United States and Israel.
Here is what to know:
Temporary leadership council
As outlined in its constitution, Iran on Sunday formed a council to assume leadership duties and govern the country.
The council is made up of Iran’s sitting president, the head of the country’s judiciary and a member of the Guardian Council chosen by Iran’s Expediency Council, which advises the supreme leader and settles disputes with parliament.
Iran’s reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and hard-line judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, are its members who will step in and “temporarily assume all the duties of leadership.” …

2 March
Guardian Live Updates
Israel launches new attacks on Tehran and Beirut as Iran closes critical Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz closed, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards says
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commander has said that the strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical oil route – is closed and Iran will set any ship trying to pass on fire, Iranian state media is reporting.
It is Tehran’s most explicit warning since announcing it was closing the route on Saturday in a move that could choke a fifth of global oil flows and send prices rocketing.
US attacked Iran ‘pre-emptively’ after learning Israel was going to launch strikes – Rubio
The US secretary of state said: “There absolutely was an imminent threat. And the imminent threat was, that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we believed that they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us. And we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded.”
He added: “We knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.”
Israel’s UN envoy says Iran operation will last ‘as long as it takes’
Israel and the US will not stop their military campaign against Iran until its objectives are achieve, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said earlier.
Earlier, Donald Trump laid out US objectives, saying mission could go on for four-five weeks, adding US has ‘capability to go far longer’
Speaking at the White House for the first time since attacking Iran, Donald Trump said the US military is continuing to carry out large-scale operations in Iran and said the campaign could continue for four to five weeks or more. The US president claimed his objectives in Iran are “clear”. They include “destroying Iran’s missile capabilities” and “annihilating their navy”, as well as preventing them from ever having nuclear weapons; he said that Tehran “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside their borders”. He also cited the apparent lack of progress in diplomatic negotiations as further justification for the strikes.

1 March
Trump’s ‘Don-roe’ Doctrine for a Whole Other Hemisphere
Jeremy Kinsman
(Policy) Iran’s regime has been, as Mark Carney noted, the “principal source of terror” in the region, with the “worst record” on human rights almost anywhere, cemented by the horrible repression of protesters in January.
There is no reason to grieve for the Ayatollah Khamenei whose leadership has been emblematic of those dark distinctions.
But the U.S. launching of such an attack raises very serious concerns about the way the Trump administration addresses its differences with others in the world.
It’s clear that the attack was in part shock-and-awe performative, to show what the U.S. in its post-multilateral, post-rules-based-order, Trumpian iteration can do — whatever, whenever, wherever.
But there seems to be no coherent plan for “what now?” A new regime…how? U.S. performance in forcing regime change — Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — has produced only debacles
Trump’s Risky War of Choice in Iran
Richard Haass
(Project Syndicate) Once again, the US has opted to make a massive strategic commitment in the Middle East. But while it takes only one side to begin a war, it takes two to end it – and Iran now has a vote in how big this conflict becomes and how long it continues.
There is much that can be said about the United States’ decision to attack Iran – and about what could result from the joint US and Israeli strikes against military and political targets throughout the country. Unfortunately, little of it is reassuring.
First and foremost, this is a war of choice. The US had other policy options available. Diplomacy appeared to hold promise as a means to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Increased economic pressure had the potential over time to precipitate regime change.
Moreover, this is a preventive war, not a preemptive one. Iran posed no imminent threat to vital US interests. Iran was not on the verge of becoming a nuclear weapons state or using what weapons it did have against the US. At most, the threat posed by Iran was a gathering one.
This distinction is important. A world in which countries believed they have the right to undertake preventive strikes against those they judge to be threats would be a world of frequent conflict. That is why such actions have no standing under international law.

Big Change Seems Certain in Iran. What Kind Is the Question.
Experts say that Iran’s clerical rulers may be too deeply entrenched for Iranians to topple them, and that the U.S. and Israeli strikes risk setting off deeper radicalization or violence.
(NYT) The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed — throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve — signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.
There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?
Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.
Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests. …

U.S.‑Israeli strikes against Iran may succeed on a military basis, but at what cost?
By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University and
Jack Adam MacLennan, Associate Professor of International Relations and National Security Studies and Graduate Program Director for National Security Studies, Park University, MO
(The Conversation) … the U.S. and Israel are unlikely to be successful in their stated goal of regime change. Historically, air power alone is insufficient. Furthermore, even if they succeed in regime change, they may create an even more volatile geopolitical situation.
… The problem now faced by Israel and the U.S. s the stated goal of regime change and the long-term stability of Iran. Not only is regime change uncertain due to the limitations of a strictly air campaign, but it could also create a scenario where more radicalized forces come to power.
This comes from the fact that, while the Iranian regime is often equated with prominent figures like the Ayatollah, it operates as more than a system centred on a single individual.
Unlike other authoritarian countries where key individuals or families have power, Iran is a complex state with a complex governance structure. At its heart is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Far from merely a military unit or secret police, the IRGC is a vast institution integrated within the security, economy and governance of Iran.
This is where the difference between “regime change” and “regime building” comes to light. Removing key leaders may destabilize Iran and change who wields power, but that usually means power is then consolidated by people already in place. That’s not the citizens Iran, who Trump urged to rise up, but the vast infrastructure of the IRGC. …
Faced with the threat of further American and Israeli attacks and nascent discontent at home, the IRGC may move quickly to further lock down its own power and respond aggressively. This power struggle could not only result in significant Iranian deaths, but cause the war to spread throughout Middle East.

Mix of joy, unease grips Iranian diaspora watching U.S.-Israeli strikes from afar
Across the United States, Iranian Americans expressed frustration, hope, dread and — above all — concern for relatives still in Iran after the joint U.S.-Israeli attacks.

Trump open to talks with Iran as conflict deepens in Middle East
US president signals willingness to engage with Tehran’s surviving leadership as strikes and retaliatory attacks intensify across region
(The Guardian) Donald Trump said on Sunday he was prepared to talk to what was left of the Iranian leadership in the wake of the killing of the country’s supreme leader by US-Israeli air strikes aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump was speaking as a second day of intense bombing of Iranian cities and Tehran’s missile counter-attacks sent tremors across the region and through the global economy.

US, Israel pound Iran as Trump signals willingness to talk to new leadership after Khamenei’s death
(AP) — The U.S. and Israel pounded targets across Iran on Sunday, dropping massive bombs on the country’s ballistic missile sites and wiping out warships as part of an intensifying military campaign following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran vowed revenge, firing missiles at Israel and Gulf Arab states in a counteroffensive. …
But the attacks on Iran showed no signs of relenting as the U.S. and Israel took aim at key military, political and intelligence targets in what appeared to be a widening war that carried the potential for a prolonged conflict that could envelop the Middle East and destabilize it. The strikes represented a startling show of military might for an American president who swept into office on an “America First” platform and pledged to keep out of “forever wars.”