Wednesday Night #2328

Ten days that could shake the world: democratic norms at stake in four pivotal elections
Brazil, Israel, Serbia and the US are holding elections within the space of 10 days. Will the authoritarian right cement its global gains, or can pro-democracy forces make a comeback?
Four elections on four continents within 10 days could profoundly reshape global politics, propelling the world further along its current authoritarian trajectory or marking a limited comeback for democratic norms.
In all four contests, basic democratic norms are at stake at a time when autocracy is advancing worldwide at an alarming rate. According to the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute, which uses multivariable assessment tools, the democratic freedoms enjoyed by the average global citizen are down to levels last seen in 1978 – long before the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communism in Europe.
The cluster of four pivotal elections could either halt that trend or reinforce it. In each contest, pro-democracy parties are in close races with current or aspiring autocrats. The outcomes in each case are likely to have spillover effects in their regions and beyond.

So far, Trump has lost two allies – Serbian Aleksandar Vučić and Brazil’s Flavio Bolsanaro. The latter has been welcomed (with visas) to the U.S. AP reports Defeated presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and his family land in Miami after fleeing Brazil while CNN clarifies Trump approved allowing Flávio Bolsonaro to enter US after Brazil election loss, source says.

Israel
Despite what was seemingly well-founded conjecture -bolstered by see-sawing exit poll results- that he might be the next Trump ally (whisperer) to go, Netanyahu is set to remain caretaker after inconclusive Israeli election
What are the implications of “caretaker government?
What are the consequences for Gaza, the West Bank, the war with Iran and the turmoil in the Middle East?
Reuters reports that Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister during any coalition negotiations and ​potentially until another election next year. While a caretaker government faces some constraints, experts say it retains powers, including over the war with Iran – not a good augur.

U.S. Midterms
Probably not as dramatic as the Brazilian and Israeli elections overall, but there will be some cliffhangers, certainly some deniers, and possibly some outright surprises. We will be watching a few of the races with special interest: Maine, North and South Carolina, Georgia (superstar Senator Jon Ossoff), Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), Talarico’s Texas and waiting up late for Alaska’s returns.   We can expect the MAGA crowd led by Trump to cry foul when things do not go their way, so it is reassuring that OpenAI is launching an election war room to track interference efforts – Politico notes that “The company is bringing hundreds of employees together to respond to suspected efforts to use its tools to disrupt the midterms.” We will be taking special interest in the campaigns of  two retired USN admirals, Eileen Laubacher, running in Colorado’s 4th congressional district against the incumbent gun rights activist Lauren Boebert, and Nancy Lacore, who was fired by Pete Hegseth, and is running in South Carolina’s first congressional district.

In case you have not  been paying attention, there’s another forthcoming general election on 7 November. This one is in New Zealand, and we don’t expect drama, but are intrigued and confused by this clarification “Polls indicate several overhang seats – where a party wins more electorate ​seats than ​their party ⁠vote would allocate them so extra seats are added to ​parliament – will be needed. The total ​number ⁠of seats in the next parliament will be crucial to which coalition can form ⁠a ​government.”

China
We should also be paying attention to the fifth plenum of the Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee
China’s Communist Party opens fifth plenum with focus on discipline and loyalty to Xi
Four-day session cites lavish dining, illicit gifts and vanity projects as state media defends decade-long corruption crackdown
(SCMP) The Communist Party has started a key four-day conclave focused on party discipline and fighting corruption, as official media outlets say adherence to the party’s leadership under President Xi Jinping is key to the country’s success.

Canada
On Thursday and Friday, Mr. Carney hosts the EU-Canada summit in Montreal. Inevitably, the new Quebec Premier is whining about not being allocated pride of place at the table. It hasn’t taken long for the Canada-Quebec squabbles to start.
For more on the Canada-EU courtship, see A transatlantic love triangle Long reads below

The results of the 400+ Ontario municipal elections are in. Big wins, shocking losses, and goodbye to a 46-year mayor: what to know about Ontario’s 2026 municipal elections that included lots of turnover, but also some large cities where almost nothing changed
Despite predictions of a dead heat, Olivia Chow romped to victory as head of progressive new Toronto council – Comments Judy Roberts?
Mississauga has its first male mayor since 1978 – and Ottawa makes history by electing city council that’s mostly women
Doug Sweet is very pleased he was able to share in the victory celebration for his friend Michael Eamon who handily won the Peterborough mayoral race

Varia
Jeremy Kinsman‘s love letter to/about Britain’s PM Can Andy Burnham Bring Britain Back?
“Affable and wonky, earnest and laid-back, Burnham projects confidence but not arrogance, empathy without affectation. Though more discernibly to the left of, say, Mark Carney, he is not doctrinaire; able, for example to renew limited exploration of North Sea energy at a time of whopping home heating bills. Burnham seems to embody the qualities Britain needs to re-set its national compass after a decade of relentless wobble.” …
John Evdokias reminds us that the Greek community celebrates OHI/Oxi Day, the 28 October 1940 anniversary, a national holiday. On that date, Greek Prime Minister Ioannis Metaxas responded “OXI” (or “OHI,” meaning “no”) to the Italian ultimatum when Italian forces invaded Greece from Albania, beginning the Greco-Italian War and bringing Greece into the Second World War
Walter Koenig, Ensign Chekov on original Star Trek series, dead at 90
U.S. actor ‘was a writer, a teacher, a thoughtful man and a loyal friend,’ wrote co-star George Takei

AI – Big Tech
The Real Danger of Big Tech
The biggest risks of AI and other advanced technologies have less to do with their growing power than the men behind them.
For at least a year now, newspapers have been increasingly filled with urgent and anxious reports about the quickening pace of artificial intelligence development, warning ominously that the technology will eventually defy human control and take over the world.
It is a threat worth taking seriously, and no mere hype. But with all the attention devoted to AI’s growing power, an even more imminent danger has become clear: With their prodigious fortunes, a small cast of men who lead the world’s most powerful AI-related companies have come to wield extraordinary and perhaps already-unstoppable power over U.S. government and society—and, thereby, unprecedented influence over world affairs.
The richest among them, Elon Musk, is the most spectacular example. He has exhibited no modesty about his ambitions as he has used his Midas-like wealth and tentacular corporations to become an irresistible force in contemporary affairs. The U.S. government now openly depends on Musk, who became a trillionaire in June, for its space program, for global communications, and for holding the country’s own in competition with China in frontier industries such as electric vehicles and batteries. But that is far from all.
Robert Reich suggests Defund Elon Musk as “No private individual should have the power to determine US foreign policy, as Musk has attempted to do in Ukraine. If Musk’s Starlink system has become so central to military strategy that its Pentagon contracts can’t be cancelled, it should be nationalized. (After I suggested this on my podcast last Saturday, Musk posted: “Stealing companies is a serious crime. Prison for Reich.”
But you don’t have to wait until Musk is officially defunded. Stop buying Teslas. Don’t use X. Don’t sign up for Starlink. And support politicians who promise to defund him.” Amen

Long reads
A transatlantic love triangle
…The problem, of course — as the late Princess Diana might have put it — is that there are three people in this marriage. And watching all this from afar will be Donald Trump, leader of Canada’s erstwhile closest partner the United States, who has already made his feelings crystal clear.
“I think it’s laughable,” the U.S. president said last month, when asked about Canadian associate-membership of the EU. Trump threatened to cease all trade with Europe if he deems the new alliance “a hostile act.” …
US ambassador suggests Trump could blame Canada if midterms don’t go his way
Pete Hoekstra, controversial US ambassador to Canada, has also accused Canadian officials of interfering in US elections
The US ambassador has suggested Canada could be blamed if Republicans perform poorly in next week’s midterm elections, the latest intervention from a controversial figure who has been accused of inflaming a bitter dispute that has angered and baffled residents of both countries.
On Wednesday, CTV news reported that Pete Hoekstra told business leaders at a closed door meeting that if a number of swing races – including Maine and Michigan – go to the Democrats, it could make things harder for Canada because Donald Trump might try to blame the loss on it.
We confess we had never heard of the Cheesecake Factory until Obama’s derisory reference to Trump’s White House. Now, we know.
Obama’s ‘Cheesecake Factory’ Jab Rankles Trump on Mississippi Campaign Stop
Former President Barack Obama had cast his successor as out of touch while jabbing at his extravagant sense of style. Mr. Trump responded at length.
Don’t Cry for the Cheesecake Factory. It’s Weathered Worse.
Long before its baroque décor and class identity became midterm talking points, this durable restaurant chain survived some withering critiques.
A Damning Account Alleges Jared Kushner Conducted Diplomacy for Profit
The new book [Princes and Thieves] by the reporter Matthew Cole connects $2 billion in slush funds from Gulf state leaders to Trump’s son-in-law in an effort to influence U.S. policy. If Cole’s claims are accurate, Kushner’s political and financial relationship with the U.A.E.’s president, Mohammed bin Zayed (widely known as M.B.Z.), constitutes what must surely be the worst case of U.S. foreign policy being conducted outside the law and democratic oversight since the Iran-contra scandal during the Reagan administration in the 1980s.