Israel-U.S.-Iran Gulf War III 1 April-

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.
Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, both White House reporters for The Times, are the co-authors of the forthcoming “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” This article is drawn from reporting for that book.
The black S.U.V. carrying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House just before 11 a.m. on Feb. 11. The Israeli leader, who had been pressing for months for the United States to agree to a major assault on Iran, was whisked inside with little ceremony, out of view of reporters, primed for one of the most high-stakes moments in his long career.
U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office. Then Mr. Netanyahu headed downstairs for the main event: a highly classified presentation on Iran for President Trump and his team in the White House Situation Room, which was rarely used for in-person meetings with foreign leaders. … NYT – 7 April

27 June
Israelis See Their Friendship With the U.S. Slipping Away
Criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza, anger over the Iran war and election results in New York all suggest Israel’s solid support from Washington may be on borrowed time.
(NYT) … Experts on the relationship warn that Israel may not be able to count on solid support from Washington for much longer — whether in concrete assistance like billions of dollars in yearly military aid, in symbolic backing like reliable vetoes of anti-Israel resolutions at the United Nations or even in tax exemptions for U.S. charities benefiting Israeli causes…
“The ‘specialness’ of this relationship was pleasant and easygoing and taken for granted for decades,” said Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster who grew up in New York. That was until Israel’s war with Hamas, she added, when many Democrats and a growing number of Republicans “realized that a special relationship was all well and good as long as Israel wasn’t killing thousands of babies in Gaza. People just broke over that.”

24 June
Israel says IDF is staying in southern Lebanon, undermining Iran peace talks
Defence minister says troops not withdrawing though Tehran sees end to war in Lebanon as part of deal with US

16-19 June
U.S. intelligence warns Israel is likely to undermine Iran peace deal, officials say
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure to continue a military campaign in Lebanon, current and former U.S. officials said.
(WaPo) U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine President Donald Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran, as the Israeli premier faces intense political pressure to continue waging his country’s war in Lebanon, current and former U.S. officials said.
Israel appears intent on maintaining military operations against Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, an aim that would flout a core element of the fledgling agreement that calls for an end to hostilities in that country, according to intelligence reports, including one circulated this week, said the officials.

Iran’s top envoy says peace deal with US dependent on Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon
Abbas Araghchi says war ‘not fully come to an end’ without Israeli forces leaving territories occupied during present conflict
(The Guardian) Iran’s top diplomat has said a peace deal with the US would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, as concern grows that Israel could undermine diplomatic efforts to finally end the Middle East war, with Donald Trump even criticising his ally and war partner as irresponsible.

15 June
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks anger among Israelis, who lash out at Netanyahu
(AP) — Israelis from across the political spectrum reacted angrily Monday to the news of an initial deal between the U.S. and Iran, calling it a disaster for Israel and directing their fury at one man: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli leader said at a news conference Monday that “with an agreement, without an agreement,” he would continue fighting to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, which Tehran has long maintained it isn’t trying to do, saying its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.
“As long as I am the prime minister of Israel, it will not happen,” Netanyahu said, emphasizing that the deal was struck by the United States, not Israel, and that he didn’t budge on Iran’s request that Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon be part of the pact.
Netanyahu Pays the Political Price for Iran Gambit With Trump
(Bloomberg) Benjamin Netanyahu has staked his political future on his ironclad relationship with Donald Trump — but that’s become a liability now that the US president has cut a deal with Iran that much of Israel opposes.
Israel’s longest-standing prime minister is preparing for an election this fall he’d hoped to clinch with the help of the man he’s called the “best friend” his country’s ever had in the White House. Instead, Netanyahu must contend with an agreement that will leave the Islamic Republic intact, an unpalatable prospect to Israelis of all stripes.
“Trump stabbed Netanyahu in the back,” lamented Yinon Magal, a nationalist Israeli commentator and champion of the Israeli leader, on Tel Aviv radio 103 FM.
Israelis’ support for their premier, dented by his failure to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, was shaken anew as Trump again made clear he called the shots in the joint campaign against Iran. Profanity-laced reprimands in telephone calls between the leaders have only underscored Netanyahu’s — and Israel’s — junior status in the partnership.
“He’s a very difficult guy,” Trump said of Netanyahu in an interview with the New York Times on Sunday, “and to be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this. Because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours.”
Trump had told Axios Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s capital of Beirut on Sunday — a response to Hezbollah firing projectiles into northern Israel — almost scuppered the negotiations with Iran. He claimed he swore at Netanyahu in a call and told him he had “no judgment.”
But most Israelis want to press ahead. They see an existential threat in Hezbollah, a group that vows to destroy the Jewish state and which has fired missiles and drones at northern Israel in support of Tehran. If Netanyahu pulls back on Trump’s orders, he’s likely to face even more criticism that he’s turned his country into a vassal of the US.

14 June
Trump faults Israel’s Beirut strike, urges stand-down as Iran threatens deal
(Axios) A drone strike on northern Israel set off a chain reaction Sunday: Israel hit Hezbollah targets in Beirut in retaliation, and Iran is now threatening to strike back.
Why it matters: The escalation lands hours before the the U.S. and Iran are supposed to sign a deal to end their war, and now Iranian officials have signaled Israel’s attack could scuttle the agreement.
A similar strike last week led to Iran launching missiles at Israel and a day of escalation between the two countries.
The latest: President Trump criticized Israel’s strike in a post on Truth Social, saying it “should not have happened” with a peace deal so close.

8 June
Israel and Iran step back from renewed conflict after Trump calls for halt
Netanyahu acknowledges pause in fighting in TV speech but vows forceful response to future attacks
(The Guardian) Fears of a return to a full-scale regional war in the Middle East eased on Monday as Israel and Iran said they had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from Donald Trump to “immediately stop shooting”.
The recent wave of Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel and retaliatory strikes by Israeli warplanes on Iran marked the most direct confrontation since an April ceasefire. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels also fired at Israel and warned they would target Israeli-affiliated ships in the Red Sea, further escalating tension.
Any new “ceasefire within the ceasefire” is very fragile, analysts say, with multiple flashpoints that could lead to fresh exchanges of strikes and missile barrages at any moment.

2 June
Trump ‘shouted and cursed Netanyahu over threat to resume Beirut bombing’
Angry phone call took place after Iran said it would suspend talks with US over Israel’s Lebanon campaign, Axios reports

19 May
Early War Goal Was to Install Hard Line Former President as Iran’s Leader
Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country.
(NYT) It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views.
But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it.
An Israeli strike designed to free Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest in Tehran, U.S. officials said, was part of an effort to bring about regime change and put him in power.
The existence of the effort, which has not been previously reported, was part of a multistage plan developed by Israel to topple Iran’s theocratic government. It underscores how Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel went into the war not only misjudging how quickly they could achieve their objectives but also gambling to some degree on a risky plan for leadership change in Iran that even some of Mr. Trump’s aides found implausible. Some American officials were skeptical in particular about the viability of putting Mr. Ahmadinejad back into power.
Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.
He has not been seen publicly since then and his current whereabouts and condition are unknown.

10 April
Iranian Delegation Arrives at Peace Talks, With Vance en Route
There was much uncertainty about the durability of the cease-fire and whether the two sides could reach a long-term deal, as Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan for the talks.
Trump’s hopes for a Iran peace deal may hinge on Israel’s war in Lebanon.
Even as Air Force Two carried Vice President JD Vance toward Pakistan for weekend talks with Iran, President Trump’s shaky cease-fire with Tehran was in growing jeopardy as world leaders hastened efforts to prevent a return to all-out war.
For a third day, work to prop up the cease-fire, which was announced on Tuesday, focused on Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Iran says the continued assault violates its deal with Mr. Trump to stop U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in exchange for safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
New tensions emerge before US-Iran war ceasefire talks in Pakistan
Iranian official says conditions still not met before talks, as Trump re-ups threat of renewed attacks.
(Al Jazeera) new tensions between the two sides emerged on Friday that throw the upcoming talks — already shrouded in deep distrust — into doubt.
The ceasefire, announced on Tuesday, temporarily put a stop to the US and Israel war against Iran. Yet, since the deal was struck, conflicts have erupted over the 10-point Iranian proposal to pause the fighting.
Both sides have offered differing accounts of its terms after agreeing to them. One critical point of discord has been whether the ceasefire applies to Israel’s invasion and ongoing offensive in Lebanon.
Will Israel and Lebanon start ceasefire talks?
Israel and Hezbollah continued to trade attacks on Friday – although at a reduced intensity.
Pakistan sets modest goal for US-Iran summit: A deal to keep talks going
US-Iran talks open in Islamabad with mediators focused on keeping dialogue alive amid deep divisions.

8 April
Ceasefire changes little for shipping in strait of Hormuz, experts say
(The Guardian) Analysts expect only limited increase in shipping as vessels will still need to seek Iranian permission to transit
There will be no “mass exodus” of ships through the strait of Hormuz, shipping analysts say, despite a two-week conditional ceasefire being agreed between the US and Iran with provision for the temporary reopening of the crucial maritime channel.
Tehran said on Wednesday that it would offer safe passage in coordination with its armed forces, though its coastguards said any ship trying to transit without permission would be “targeted and destroyed”.
The Iranian news agency Fars later reported that tankers passing through had been stopped because Israel’s fresh wave of attacks on Lebanon constituted a “ceasefire breach”.

8 April
Middle East ceasefire in serious doubt as Israel assaults Lebanon and Iran blocks oil tankers
Inclusion of Lebanon is significant difference in interpretation of truce agreed at 11th hour on Tuesday
(The Guardian) The fate of the two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict looked uncertain on Wednesday as both sides gave divergent versions of what had been agreed, Israel intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon and Iran halted the passage of oil tankers because of an alleged Israeli ceasefire breach.
Iran and Pakistan, which brokered the 11th-hour truce, both asserted that the ceasefire included Lebanon. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, disagreed and Israeli forces unleashed their heaviest attack of the war so far on more than 100 targets and killing at least 254 people.
Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Cease-Fire Shaky as Strikes on Lebanon and Confusion Over Strait Grow
(NYT) Iranian officials insisted that Lebanon, where Israel was continuing punishing strikes on the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, was covered by the cease-fire and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps threatened a military response against “aggressors in the region” if the attacks didn’t end immediately. But Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters that Lebanon was not covered by the agreement.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps threatened a military response against “aggressors in the region” if there was not an immediate halt to attacks in Lebanon, where Israel has targeted the Iran-backed Hezbollah armed group. And other Persian Gulf nations reported dozens of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the cease-fire was announced.
‘Better TACO Tuesday than World War III’
The war in Iran is on hold for now. So who wins the peace?
(Politico Playbook) Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway. This is “total and complete victory,” Trump told the AFP last night. “100 percent. No question about it.” It’s the first of what will surely be many “exclusive” calls with journalists today. …
But here’s the problem: …is the regime actually worse off?
The charge sheet: Iran’s leadership structures remain intact. Its hard-liners now have total control. Sanctions have been lifted, for now. Missiles can be rebuilt. The enriched uranium remains in Iran. And the discovery that even the full force of the American military cannot prevent Iran from turning one of the world’s most important shipping lanes into a de facto parking lot — with a hefty pay-to-leave barrier — will not be quickly forgotten.
Strait talking: Crucially, the ceasefire statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last night — reposted in full by Trump on Truth Social — states that even during this two-week period, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will only be permitted “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” In other words, the U.S. has already accepted that Iran can impose limits on shipping in the Strait — limits that did not exist before the war began.
And there’s more: Iran is already charging punitive tolls for passage through the strait, and AP reports this will continue during the ceasefire. Trump’s description of Iran’s 10-point list of demands as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests further concessions are entirely possible.
Much remains unclear. Pakistan — the central mediator — said the ceasefire includes Israeli attacks on Lebanon, but Israel said overnight it does not. There are reports Iran continued firing missiles at neighboring countries after the ceasefire was agreed. And there’s no clarity at all on what happens to Iran’s enriched uranium, though Trump told AFP it will be “perfectly taken care of.”

7 April

U.S., Iran and Israel Agree to Cease-Fire

The deal came shortly before President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastation. Israel said the cease-fire did not include Lebanon.
(NYT) The United States and Iran reached an 11th-hour cease-fire deal on Tuesday evening, hours after President Trump threatened to start wiping out Iran’s “whole civilization” if it did not allow commercial shipping to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr. Trump announced the agreement in a post on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in the dispute, urged him to stand down from the 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline he had set for Iran to accede to his demands. Pakistan proposed that each side observe a two-week cease-fire, and that during that time Iran allow oil, gas and other vessels to proceed unmolested through the economically vital waterway.

Trump Says US in ‘Heated’ Iran Talks Amid Extension Request
President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after Pakistan, in the role of mediator, asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The comments came shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on social media that talks were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully” and that his country had asked Iran to “to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture.”

Israel threatens entire Iran train network; Trump says he is ‘not at all’ worried about possible war crimes
Israeli military warns Iranians to immediately stop using trains or being near railway lines, saying it would ‘endanger’ their lives
(The Guardian) The UN security council is expected to vote on Tuesday on a resolution to protect commercial shipping in the strait of Hormuz but in significantly watered-down form after veto-wielding China opposed authorising force
The Israeli military said early on Tuesday it had completed an “air strike wave” aimed at damaging Iranian regime infrastructure in Tehran and other areas across Iran. It said soon after that missiles were launched at Israel from Iran and defensive systems operated to incept them.
Israel said it struck Iran’s largest petrochemical complex on Monday. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the facility had been “destroyed” and his country was “systematically eliminating the Revolutionary Guards’ money machine”.
The Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence chief, Maj Gen Majid Khademi, was killed in US-Israeli strikes at dawn on Monday, the Guards said.
Saudi Arabia intercepted seven ballistic missiles launched towards its eastern region and debris fell in the vicinity of energy facilities, the defence ministry said on Tuesday.
Two blasts were reportedly heard near the Erbil airport – which hosts advisers from the US-led anti-jihadist coalition – in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region.

6 April
Trump widens threat to all of Iran’s power plants and bridges as his deadline for a deal approaches
(AP) — President Donald Trump on Monday [6 April] expanded his threat against Iran to include all power plants and bridges as his ultimatum to make a deal ticked closer, after Tehran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and said it wants a permanent end to the war.
“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” Trump said. He suggested that his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline was final, saying he’d already given Iran enough extensions.
The U.S. has told Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz to all shipping traffic or see power plants and bridges wiped out, sparking warnings about possible war crimes.
Israel piled on pressure by attacking a major petrochemical plant and killing the intelligence chief for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

4 April
Strait of Hormuz WEEK 5 Update | Is the Strait OPEN or CLOSED? (video)
(What’s Going On With Shipping) This episode summarizes Week 5 of the war between the US-Israel-Iran with a focus on the Strait of Hormuz and international shipping. We summarize the past week’s events, examine the major news stories, and look at the major issues facing restarting traffic through the Strait.

Europe’s Options in the Strait of Hormuz: Few, and Risky
European leaders and other officials have ideas for bringing shipping back to the strait once the Iran war ends. But none of them are sure bets.
(NYT) When senior officials from 40 countries met virtually this week to discuss how to bring shipping traffic back to the Strait of Hormuz, Italy’s foreign minister had a proposal. He urged them to establish a “humanitarian corridor” allowing safe passage for fertilizer and other crucial goods headed to impoverished nations.
The plan, described after the meeting by Italian officials, was one of several competing proposals from Europe and beyond that were meant to prevent the Iran war from causing widespread hunger. But it was not endorsed by the envoys on the call, and the meeting ended with no concrete plan to reopen the strait, militarily or otherwise.
…That partly reflects the slow gears of diplomacy in Europe and the sheer number of nations, including Persian Gulf states, that are invested in safeguarding the strait once the war ends. Many nations involved in the talks, including Italy and Germany, have insisted that any international effort be blessed by the United Nations, which could slow action further. Military leaders will take up the issue in discussions next week.
More than anything, the struggle reflects how difficult it could be to actually secure the strait under a fragile peace — for Europe or for anyone else. None of the options available to Europe, the Gulf states and other countries look foolproof, even under the assumption that the major fighting will have stopped.

3-5 April
Trump issues an expletive-filled threat against Iran as details of US aviator’s rescue emerge
(AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday made expletive-filled threats against Iran and its infrastructure if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday deadline, after American forces rescued a wounded aviator whose Iran-downed plane fell behind enemy lines.
A defiant Iran struck infrastructure targets in neighboring Gulf Arab countries and threatened to restrict another heavily used waterway, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Arabian Peninsula.
Trump on social media vowed to hit Iran’s power plants and bridges and said the country would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global trade, isn’t opened. He ended with “Praise be to Allah.”
… An intense search followed Friday’s crash of the F-15E Strike Eagle, while Iran promised a reward for the “enemy pilot.”
Trump said that the service member was “seriously wounded and really brave” and rescued from “deep inside the mountains” in an operation involving dozens of armed aircraft. He said a second crew member was rescued in “broad daylight” within hours of the crash.
…a regional intelligence official briefed on the mission told the AP that the U.S. military blew up two transport planes because of a technical malfunction and brought in additional aircraft to complete the rescue.
Two Black Hawk helicopters were hit but navigated to safe airspace, according to a person familiar with the situation…
US pilot from downed F-15E plane rescued in Iran:
The second pilot from the fighter jet shot down in Iran is rescued by US rescue forces after 48 hours.
(Al Jazeera) The US and Iran were racing to find the airman for about two days, with Tehran calling on the public to hand over the soldier to the authorities in what appeared to be attempts to capture an American prisoner of war as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 37th day.
That scenario would have delivered a significant win to Tehran amid the ongoing pummelling of its territory, and for Washington, a stunning blow, analysts say. It could have been the moment that parts of Trump’s support base, which has so far supported the war, started to rethink their stance, they say.
Downed U.S. Jet and Missing Crew Member Raise Stakes in War
The F-15E was the first American warplane shot down by Iran in the five-week war and a crew member is missing. A second U.S. combat plane crashed in the Gulf region and its pilot was rescued, U.S. officials said.
The U.S. plane shot down by Iran has two crew members, and the fate of the second airman was unclear. One was rescued, but U.S. forces are mounting a large search and rescue operation in hostile territory to find the second crew member.