NAFTA/USMCA/CUSMA – 2023-

USMCA Review 2026
Pathways, Risks, and Strategic Considerations for North America’s Economic Future
The Issue
(Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS) The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the backbone of North America’s competitiveness, will undergo a formal review starting in July 2026. What was once expected to be a routine assessment aimed at improving implementation is now likely to become a high-stakes negotiation. The Trump administration is poised to seek additional concessions from Mexico and Canada on long-standing trade disputes, while also leveraging the review to address non-trade issues such as migration, drug trafficking, and continental defense. Both neighbors, already in talks with Washington over tariff relief, are approaching the process with caution. While the review may become a platform for the United States to secure short-term wins, it also presents a rare opportunity to modernize the agreement and strengthen North America’s shared competitiveness. How the three nations navigate this moment will shape the region’s economic future for decades.
In July 2026, on the sixth anniversary of the USMCA’s implementation, the three countries will hold a joint review to assess the agreement’s performance and determine its future. If all parties agree to renewal, the agreement will remain in force for another 16 years, with a review in 2032. However, other outcomes are possible. The agreement could enter a period of annual reviews if renewal is delayed or denied. Further, one or more countries could withdraw, opening the door to a return to bilateral arrangements or expiration in 2036.

5 July
LeBlanc says Canada seeking clarity after U.S. opts for annual CUSMA review
Days after the Trump administration decided to require annual reviews of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement instead of renewing it in its current form until 2042, the Canadian government says significant uncertainty remains over the next steps in trade negotiations.
“We don’t have any more predictability about the annual review process because this is somewhat uncharted territory. It’s not typical for this kind of agreement,” Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a telephone interview Friday.
LeBlanc said he asked U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer how he intended to structure discussions as part of the annual review. He said the request was made jointly with Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard.
“There wasn’t an answer at the meeting. … It was agreed that we would continue the conversation over the coming weeks,” the minister said of the July 1 meeting, when the United States confirmed it would pursue annual reviews of CUSMA.
Canada and Mexico had hoped the agreement, in its current form, would remain in place for another 16 years. Instead, Washington wants changes, saying the current version has run its course.
The U.S. decision set in motion a renewable annual review process that could last up to 10 years. At the end of that period, the agreement would expire if no path forward is found to extend it beyond its 2036 expiry date.

3 July
CUSMA renewal deadline passed, U.S. tariffs remain—what it means for Canada and its economy
(The Hub) … Business and political opinion on both sides of the border is pushing for resolution. David Paterson, Ontario’s trade representative in Washington, told CBC last Sunday that the consensus in Congress and the U.S. business community points toward a deal well before the fall midterms. “I would say we should really go the way of the consensus of business, and Congress, and everyone down here, that it would be really smart to arrive at a deal by Labour Day, before the midterms,” he said. “That gives us a chance for a lift of the American economy, it allows us to get investment flowing back onto things, and starting to move things forward.”
1 July
U.S. declines to extend CUSMA trade deal with Canada, Mexico
Trump administration’s move doesn’t kill agreement, but triggers fresh negotiations and uncertainty
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is opting not to extend its trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, triggering what are expected to be tough negotiations on amending the deal.
The announcement by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer followed a virtual meeting on Wednesday with Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Mexico’s economy secretary, Marcelo Ebrard.
The U.S. move was widely anticipated, although the Trump administration had not made it official until now.

30 June
What July 1 means for CUSMA, Canada’s trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico
U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed his country would be ‘better off’ without CUSMA and he’d like it terminated. ‘What I’ve seen with the president is that you’re not close to making a deal and then you make a deal,’ responded Prime Minister Mark Carney.
(CBC) Canadian government officials will join their counterparts from the U.S. and Mexico on Wednesday in a landmark meeting on the future of the trade agreement between their three countries.
July 1, 2026 was set as the date for a trilateral review of the new agreement.
That review provides the countries with just two options:
Option A is choosing a 16-year extension, which would keep the deal in place until 2042.
Option B is choosing not to extend, which would trigger a fresh round of renegotiating the agreement, with no clear end point until, and unless, the three sides reach a deal.
Both Canada and Mexico have declared publicly and in writing that they want CUSMA extended, but are willing to discuss amendments to the deal.
The U.S. has not publicly released an official statement, but has made its position perfectly clear. The Trump administration wants to renegotiate many of the terms of the deal, and there’s no chance it would give away its leverage over those talks by agreeing to an extension first.

Why the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Is in Jeopardy
(Bloomberg) As its members approach a July 1 “joint review” of the agreement, which governs $2 trillion in annual trade, there are expectations that the debate over the deal’s future could prolong tensions in an economic relationship that supporters argue strengthens North America’s ability to compete with rising powers such as China and India. The main options are to extend the USMCA for 16 more years, give notice of withdrawal, or keep it in place for another decade with the option of revisions under a system of annual reviews. President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals about continued US participation in the pact.
What are the possible outcomes for the USMCA review?
The USMCA is scheduled to end in July 2036 unless the three partners agree to keep it going and no one decides to pull out. Given Trump’s ambiguous position, many observers expect the future to include annual reviews and more unpredictability.

8 June
Will the trade war leave a new bridge just sitting over an international waterway?
Gabrielle Gurley writes in The American Prospect
…The [Gordie Howe International] bridge stretching 1.5 miles across the Detroit River has become a point of leverage in the trade talks between the U.S. and Canada. Both Canada and Mexico have called for a renewed 16-year USMCA agreement. President Trump responded with another “51st state” post. Neither Canada nor Mexico is budging. Meanwhile, Michigan and Ontario drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians wonder how much longer they’ll have to wait before they can use the river crossing. …
The Canadians’ insistence on adulting has done nothing but rile up a White House obsessed with exercising hard power through trade sanctions. In a May interview with a Windsor, Ontario, radio station, Evan Solomon, the Canadian minister who heads up the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, all but admitted that the bridge is effectively being held hostage in the USMCA negotiations: “… But you know there’s a lot of factors. The bridge is one factor, trade, there’s a lot of industries that are being impacted.”
… Will Carney’s strategy, relying on globe-trotting soft power, translate into more leverage for Canada, now that the administration has welded the bridge to USMCA negotiations?
If not for the USMCA, both Canada and the U.S. would likely be in worse shape, especially since the White House struck again last week, levying another round of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and 54 other countries for violations involving goods made with forced labor (known as Section 301 investigations). USMCA-compliant goods won’t be subject to these latest tariffs.
… Right now, the U.S. has the leverage going into North American trade talks. While the American focus is on compelling Mexico to make concessions not only on trade issues, but on immigration, narcoterrorism, and border security, Canada drifts. “There’s nothing that says that the USTR [United State trade representative] has to submit anything to Congress before deciding what to do, so there is enough space in there for the administration to say, well, the president can decide what he wants to do with the USMCA,” says [Inu Manak, a senior fellow for international trade at the Council on Foreign Relations].
However, modifying or otherwise dispensing with the pact altogether requires congressional action. The countries will begin a joint review of the treaty beginning on July 1. Canada and Mexico want to extend the treaty for 16 years. The three countries can also agree to review it annually.
Those talks are on the rocks. Last week, during a bilateral round of negotiations with Mexico, the U.S. proposed a substantial modification of automotive rules of origin. The change would require 82 percent North American content with 50 percent of that value produced in the U.S. to qualify for preferential tariff rates. There was no provision made for Canadian content. The omission sparked suspicions that American negotiators might try to force Canada to accept that proposal, or float an entirely new bilateral agreement with Canada.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has gone so far as to lump Canada in with China as countries that “retaliated” against the U.S when it decided to levy tariffs. He labeled the challenges with Canada as “significant.” “They’re just in a different spot,” Greer told a Council on Foreign Relations audience in New York at the end of May. “And it’s hard to see necessarily where that ends.” …

5 June
US, Mexico, Canada to Miss July USMCA Date, Ramping Up Trade Tension
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement has a July 1 renewal deadline, but the countries aren’t likely to land a deal by then.That could lead to extended North American trade negotiations and uncertainty, with significant effects for jobs, tariffs and manufacturing.
(Bloomberg) The US, Mexico and Canada are set to blow past a July 1 milestone to renew their trade deal, opening the possibility of months or years of haggling over the rules and tariffs for auto manufacturing and other industries, people familiar with the matter said.
The agreement, signed by President Donald Trump during his first term, includes a deadline next month to extend the pact for 16 years. If all three countries don’t agree to renew it, the deal remains in place until at least 2036 — barring one of them quitting it entirely — and enters rolling annual reviews.
In the meantime, against the backdrop of the review, the US has started separate bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico over trade irritants. Some of those issues are only loosely related to the pact known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Side deals may be struck to address them without changes to the USMCA’s underlying text.

29 May
North American-made autos must contain at least 50% U.S. content, Trump negotiators tell Mexico
(Globe & Mail) U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiating team is demanding that all North American-made autos contain at least 50 per cent U.S. content, firing the opening salvo in a battle over the future of the pact governing continental trade.
American and Mexican negotiators hunkered down in Mexico City this week to start a review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and the U.S. announced plans for two further rounds of bilateral talks that do not include Canada.
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc, meanwhile, is planning a trip to Washington as soon as next week.
In the Mexico City meetings, U.S. officials demanded that the deal be changed to require at least half of the materials and components in vehicles made in the USMCA zone come from the U.S. in order to qualify for preferential tariff treatment under the deal, said Pedro Casas, chief executive officer of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, a business group briefed on talks.
The U.S. also wants the required amount of North American content overall to be set at 82 per cent, he said.

22 April
Carney unveils new Canada-U.S. advisory council ahead of potentially rocky USMCA talks
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has struck a new Canada-U.S. advisory committee to offer guidance as a potentially rocky review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement gets under way.
The Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations will be chaired by Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister for Canada-U.S. trade relations. It includes former politicians and Canadians with experience in business, investment, trade and labour. It has 24 members, not including Mr. LeBlanc.
Members include former Quebec premier Jean Charest, former Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, former Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale, as well as several chief executives, including BMO Financial Group’s Darryl White, CN Rail’s Tracy Robinson, TC Energy’s François Poirier and Nutrien’s Ken Seitz.
Other committee members include Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association president Flavio Volpe, Canadian Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing and Unifor national president Lana Payne.

17 April
Lutnick Blasts Canada Ahead of Trade Talks
Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s commerce secretary, derided Canada’s trade strategy and said a North American deal needed to be reworked.
(NYT) Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House, said that Mr. Lutnick was “being misquoted.” He added, “Secretary Lutnick was correctly pointing out how Canada, along with many other ‘allies,’ has been taking advantage of the American economy and people for decades.”
In his remarks, Mr. Lutnick touted investments in the United States promised by foreign countries, but said that the administration was not considering allowing Chinese automakers like BYD to open up joint ventures in the United States.
He also projected that U.S. economic growth would hit 6 percent. Data released in March showed the economy grew 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and 2.1 percent in 2025 overall.
Trump’s commerce secretary Howard Lutnick unloads on Canada: ‘They suck’
(National Post) “We are a $30 trillion economy. We are the consumer of the world. (Prime Minister Mark) Carney has a problem with us. He gets on a plane and he goes to China. Does he think the Chinese economy is going to buy his stuff?” said Lutnick, at the Semafor World Economy summit. “China is an entirely export-driven economy. So what did he do? He came back and said, ‘we’ll take their electric cars.’ Is this nuts?”
White House officials later told the New York Times that the commerce secretary was “being misquoted.”
Lutnick’s insults to Canada represent ‘real frustration in Washington’
(CBC) U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick blasted Canada’s trade strategy on Friday, saying Prime Minister Mark Carney ‘has a problem with us’ and mocking Carney’s recent trade visit to China. The journalist who asked Lutnick about Canadian trade, Semafor editor-in-chief Ben Smith, weighed in on Power & Politics.

7 April
U.S. expects USMCA to remain in place, with ‘separate protocols’ for Canada and Mexico
(Globe & Mail) The United States’ top trade official says he expects negotiations over the North American free-trade pact to extend beyond July 1, and to ultimately result in separate arrangements with Canada and Mexico built on top of the existing trilateral agreement.
In an event on Tuesday in Washington, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer laid out his expectations for the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is scheduled to take place this summer.
A key question heading into the review is whether the deal will survive as a trilateral pact, or be split into two separate bilateral agreements. U.S. President Donald Trump has called the agreement “irrelevant” and has mused about leaving it.
“Our baseline is that things have to be changed,” Mr. Greer said about the USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and governs trade between the three countries. But he suggested the core of the agreement would likely remain in place, while the U.S. would look to address specific bilateral grievances with Canada and Mexico in separate side agreements.

6 March
The awkward truth dogging USMCA talks: ‘They just hate Canada.’
The Trump White House has Canadians on edge as Ottawa braces for a trade review with a $1 trillion relationship in the balance.
(Politico) One year into the trade war, Canadians are feeling more patriotic and more convinced the United States is a worse place under Donald Trump. And as the president dangles the fate of North American free trade above a wood chipper, a split has emerged between business leaders worried about bottom lines and Canadians who are simply over the president’s provocations.

26 February
Dominic LeBlanc counters tough U.S. trade talk with optimism after ‘very friendly’ private meetings
(Globe & Mail) Private negotiations between Canadian and American trade officials are “business-like, cordial, amicable” and even “very friendly,” Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for North American trade, said Thursday. He added that this gives him optimism that a review of the continent’s three-country free trade agreement will yield a satisfactory result for Canada.
Despite the “public prosecution” of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in the U.S., Mr. LeBlanc said behind the scenes there are “private, government-to-government conversations which are not discouraging.”
The minister’s comments during a fireside chat hosted by the Canadian Club countered the language used by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who said earlier this week that any deal with Canada must include higher tariffs.
Mr. LeBlanc, who is travelling to Washington late next week to meet Mr. Greer again, is optimistic for multiple reasons. To start, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly shown that he’s willing to keep the USMCA in place, save for tariffs on select sectors that he deems important to U.S. national security, such as steel.

23 February
U.S. Congress aims to boost sagging tourism by strengthening ties via CUSMA
The bill directs the U.S. Trade Representative to advocate for the establishment of a Travel and Tourism Trade Working Group during the upcoming joint review of CUSMA
(National Post)
A bipartisan bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress aimed at strengthening travel and tourism ties between United States, Canada and Mexico.
The USMCA Travel and Tourism Resiliency Act was sponsored by a group of Democratic and Republican legislators from the Senate and House of Representatives from Florida, Nevada and Kansas. The sponsors argue that the tourism sector is crucial to the economies of the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
In 2024, U.S. travel and tourism were valued at US$1.3 trillion, supporting 15 million jobs. However, in the last year, travel and tourism in the United States has been struggling, with declines in international visitors, especially Canadians. The bill aims to ensure a coordinated effort between the three countries to revitalize the tourism industry. The bill’s sponsors also argue that the U.S. should capitalize on America’s 250th anniversary celebrations in July, which are expected to drive domestic U.S. and international travel to historic levels.
A Travel and Tourism Trade Working Group, established under the agreement, would give travel and tourism a formal place in North American trade discussions alongside other sectors already recognized by CUSMA. It would be co‑chaired by all three countries and composed of officials responsible for travel and tourism policy

31 January
Departing envoy to U.S. says it’s unclear whether USMCA review will conclude in 2026
(Globe & Mail) Kirsten Hillman is ending a term of more than six years as Canada’s envoy to the United States on Feb. 15. She served as acting ambassador in 2019 and officially took over in early 2020. The career diplomat will be replaced by investment banker Mark Wiseman, a friend of Prime Minister Mark Carney.
The trilateral trade deal, also known as CUSMA, calls for all parties to signal whether they want to renew by July 1.
The envoy said she couldn’t forecast whether this scheduled review – broadly expected to turn into a renegotiation – will be finished by the end of 2026.
“It’s very difficult to predict,” Ms. Hillman said in an interview Friday. “This is the first time that we’re using this review process. And so there’s no history to go on, to know exactly how that’s going to run.”
As well, she said, the U.S. approach to trade has shifted. Since taking office, Mr. Trump has imposed a slew of protectionist tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

16 January
The Myth of the All-American Car
Trump says he doesn’t need Canadian-made cars. He’s lying.
By Peter Frise
(Maclean’s) While touring the Ford River Rouge plant in Dearborn, Michigan, on Tuesday, President Trump declared that the United States will be just fine making its own automobiles, thank you very much. “We don’t need cars made in Canada, we don’t need cars made in Mexico, we want to make them here,” he said.
He gave the statement in response to a question about his plans for the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA, a deal signed during his first term that allows for barrier-free trade among the three countries. The agreement comes up for mandatory review in July, but Trump’s rhetoric doesn’t bode well for the treaty’s future. He calls it “irrelevant” and says it offers no real advantage for the U.S.
I couldn’t disagree more. Trump’s statements reveal a lack of understanding of how the auto industry works. From extraction and refining of raw materials to the car showroom, Canada—alongside many other nations—plays an essential role in the U.S. auto industry. In fact, America’s industry would collapse without contributions from other countries.

14 January
Trump says he doesn’t care about USMCA; Sheinbaum says US businesses do
… On Tuesday, the U.S. president also said: “We don’t need cars made in Canada, we don’t need cars made in Mexico, we want to make them here. And that’s what’s happening.”
His assertion that the U.S. doesn’t need Mexican and Canadian products is highly questionable.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that “the Detroit Three” — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — “are heavily reliant on supply chains that include significant parts production in Mexico and Canada.”
General Motors president Mark Reuss said Thursday that the company’s “supply chains go all the way through all three countries” and described the integration as a “big strength.”
Beyond the auto industry, various other manufacturing sectors are highly integrated across the United States, Mexico and Canada.
President Trump Participates in a Site Visit and Plant Tour (video)
Ford CEO says trade deal with Mexico and Canada is ‘critical’ for industry
(Reuters) – Ford CEO Jim Farley said a North American free trade deal is needed for the automaker and industry, hours after U.S. President Trump called it “irrelevant.”
“We really see Canada and Mexico and the U.S. as an integrated manufacturing system. And that’s how we’re going to approach this negotiation. Very critical for us, but we need revisions,” Farley said on the sidelines of an event at the Detroit Auto Show on Tuesday evening.
Trump says USMCA ‘irrelevant’ as Canada attempts reset with China
(Globe & Mail) U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is “irrelevant” to him, a day before Prime Minister Mark Carney was set to arrive in China for a visit aimed at repairing frayed economic ties with Beijing.
Mr. Trump, speaking during a visit to a Ford auto assembly plant in Dearborn, Mich., sought to focus attention on his economic agenda at a time of heightened anxiety about affordability and job growth.
“There’s no real advantage to it, it’s ⁠irrelevant,” Mr. Trump said of the USMCA. “Canada would love it. Canada wants it. They need it.”
The comment was an especially pointed dismissal of the USMCA from a president who has repeatedly expressed ambivalence toward the agreement, which was negotiated and signed during his first term.
… [Ontario Premier Doug] Ford said he was “100 per-cent dead set against” lifting the EV tariffs.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who is joining Mr. Carney in China, and others have called for an end to the EV tariffs, to get China to lift its retaliatory action on Canadian soy and canola. Mr. Ford said he understood that Mr. Moe also had to advocate for jobs in his province, but that he was focused on saving Ontario’s auto sector.

8 January
Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC)
Three countries working together to protect our shared North American environment.
Timothy Whitehouse, former head of the law and policy program
(LnkedIn) Yesterday, President Trump signed an Executive Order removing the United States from dozens of international organizations, conventions and treaties, including the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), an organization created by the U.S., Mexico and Canada to facilitate environmental cooperation between the three countries. I served as head of the law and policy program at the CEC for 5 years. The CEC has been an extremely useful and practical organization. When I was at the CEC, we set up the framework for the electronic exchange of information on hazardous waste shipments between the three countries and facilitated meetings between criminal and civil investigators on issues related to the illegal trade in wildlife and hazardous waste (hugely important issues). As my friend Hans Herrmann pointed out in another social media post, thanks to the CEC, migratory bird conservation shifted from fragmented national efforts to coordinated migratory pathway action through the North American Bird Conservation Initiative and a program was developed to connect marine protected areas in the three counties. Withdrawing from the CEC weakens collective capacity at a time where regional challenges require greater cooperation.

2025

17 December
Free the beer and dairy: Trump administration lays out must-do conditions for CUSMA review
U.S. revealing publicly for the first time what Trump expects Prime Minister Mark Carney to do
U.S. President Donald Trump’s point-person on trade laid out a series of conditions Wednesday that Canada must meet in order to extend the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) when it comes up for a review next year — revealing publicly for the first time what the administration expects Prime Minister Mark Carney to do to keep the pact for the long term.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told the U.S. Congress that CUSMA has been “successful to a certain degree” but there need to be changes before Trump agrees to extend it for another 16 years or revert to yearly reviews, something Canada is eager to avoid given the resulting annual uncertainty.
… Greer said the U.S. will take aim at two major Canadian policies: the Online Streaming Act, which brought online platforms like Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube under Canadian broadcasting rules, and the supply-managed dairy sector, among others.

11 December
Trump administration won’t tear up CUSMA, says Canada’s ambassador to U.S.
Kirsten Hillman’s comments come after top U.S. negotiator floated separate deals with Canada, Mexico
Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman, who also serves as Ottawa’s lead trade negotiator with Washington, says she hasn’t heard any indication from the Trump administration that it wants to change the fundamentals of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.
Hillman’s comments come a day after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer floated the potential for separate trade deals with Canada and Mexico to replace CUSMA as early as next year, when the agreement faces a crucial review deadline.
“Our economic relationship with Canada is very, very different than our economic relationship with Mexico,” Greer told an event held Wednesday by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think-tank focused on international affairs.

9 December
Next year’s Mexico trade mission may be biggest ever launched by Canada
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in regular contact, says ambassador
MacKay says hundreds of Canadian businesses have applied to be part of the mission, which is set for February and will be led by Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, said MacKay in an interview with CBC News.
“In terms of the number of businesses who have applied to join the minister and come and look at export opportunities here, it’ll be the biggest one we’ve ever done,” he said.

8 December
Lawmakers to meet with Canadian ambassador ahead of free trade review
Benjamin Guggenheim
A bipartisan group of lawmakers will meet this week with Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. ahead of a deadline for the review of a key trade agreement between the two countries.
Lawmakers on the House Ways and Means Committee are set to sit down Thursday morning for a round-table conversation with Kirsten Hillman, ambassador of Canada to the U.S., according to a weekly schedule for the committee viewed by POLITICO.
The meeting comes as the administration is preparing for the upcoming mandatory review of the United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement signed by President Donald Trump in 2020.
The three countries will convene July 1 to state whether they want to renew the pact for another 16-year term, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is required to send a report reviewing the agreement to key congressional committees by early January.
Lawmakers are certain to take the opportunity to press Greer on ways the U.S. could potentially renegotiate the landmark agreement. For instance, a bipartisan coalition of more than 70 lawmakers led by Ways and Means member Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) wrote a letter to Greer last week urging him to pry open Canada’s market for U.S. dairy exports.

18 September
Carney’s visit to Mexico crucial to saving North American free-trade agreement
Business Council of Canada:
As Prime Minister Mark Carney heads to Mexico this week, he must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. As governor of the Bank of England, he saw what happened when the British people decided to decouple from their largest trading partner. History can’t repeat itself; Canada must avoid a Brexit-style breakup with the United States.
Ten years ago, the United Kingdom was divided into two camps, leavers and remainers. The leavers believed Britain had to break from the European Union to take back control of its economic sovereignty. The remainers warned the U.K. economy would suffer badly if Britons voted for Brexit in 2016.
Today, Canada is divided between those who believe we must remain actively committed to the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement (USMCA, my preferred acronym for the agreement) and those who believe we should leave it to wither and die. The “remainers” warn that the Canadian economy will suffer badly if the USMCA isn’t renewed in 2026.
The facts are clear. The United States is Canada’s most important trade and investment partner by far. No combination of countries can replace our commercial relationship with the U.S. Yet even if there were such an alternative, shifting our trade away from the U.S. isn’t diversification — it’s diversion.
True diversification is addition, not subtraction. If we increase trade with other countries but reduce trade with the U.S., there would be no growth. Trade flows would simply net out — and that’s the best-case scenario. The value and volume of exports in specific sectors would almost certainly decline. …

11 July
Trump’s 35% tariff threat on Canada will likely exempt USMCA goods, U.S. official says
Donald Trump’s threatened 35-per-cent tariffs on Canadian goods would most likely only apply to those traded outside the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, currently subjected to 25-per-cent tariffs, a U.S. administration official says.
The higher tariffs, set to start on Aug. 1, are not expected to cover goods traded under USMCA or oil, gas and potash traded outside the deal, which have been hit with 10-per-cent tariffs, said the source.
The official, however, cautioned that the President had not yet made a decision and no final paper had been drafted on the subject. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the official as a condition for learning more details of the administration’s tariff planning.
The continuing uncertainty capped a week in which Mr. Trump failed to fulfill his promise of “90 deals in 90 days,” and instead issued a flurry of largely formulaic letters – containing his signature capitalization style and the occasional typo – threatening a range of new tariffs against dozens of countries in his global trade war.

12 May
Mexico expects early review of USMCA trade pact
Mexico expects a planned review of the trilateral trade pact with the U.S. and Canada to kick off ahead of schedule, the nation’s economy minister said on Monday.
(Reuters/CTV) The review of the USMCA trade agreement is set to begin in 2026, but Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said at an event that he expected it to start in the second half of this year.
“More or less, the time I’m estimating is in the second half of the year,” Ebrard said.
The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and was negotiated during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, requires the three countries to hold a joint review after six years.
Trump has publicly pushed for the agreement to be renegotiated ahead of time and has called for the U.S. to receive better trade terms with all of its commercial partners.
The strong-arm tactics have led to sweeping tariffs from the U.S. and fears of a global economic slowdown.
Despite the tariffs, the USMCA is still in effect, only affecting shipments of products such as steel and completed automobiles from Mexico into the U.S.

2024

3 December
Assessing Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada
Joshua P. Meltzer
– A tariff-first approach to addressing U.S. issues with Canada and Mexico undermines the key role of trade and investment across North America underpinned by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
– Ignoring USMCA commitments may undermine trust in U.S. trade agreements and cooperation.
25-26 November
Canada, Mexico leaders stress cooperation after Trump tariffs threat
Justin Trudeau and Claudia Sheinbaum urge dialogue as Donald Trump plans to hit US neighbours with 25-percent tariffs.
Trump says he’ll impose 25% tariff on all products from Canada, Mexico until borders secured
Incoming U.S. president posted to social media that he will bring in the change on his first day in office, with additional tariffs for China
(AP via National Post) President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China as soon as he takes office as part of his efforts to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs.
In a pair of posts on his Truth Social site Monday evening, Trump wrote that, “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States.”

23 November
Afraid of losing the US-Canada trade pact, Mexico alters its laws and removes Chinese parts
(AP) — Mexico has been taking a bashing lately for allegedly serving as a conduit for Chinese parts and products into North America, and officials here are afraid a re-elected Donald Trump or politically struggling Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could try to leave their country out of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement.
Mexico’s ruling Morena party is so afraid of losing the trade deal that President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday the government has gone on a campaign to get companies to replace Chinese parts with locally made ones.
“We have a plan with the aim of substituting these imports that come from China, and producing the majority of them in Mexico, either with Mexican companies or primarily North American companies,” Sheinbaum said.
While Sheinbaum claimed Mexico had been working on that effort since the 2021 global supply chain crisis — when factories around the world were stalled by a lack of parts and particularly computer chips from Asia — it appears to be an uphill battle. Even the United States has faced big challenges in moving chip production back home despite billions in subsidies and incentives.

28 August
Mexico to debate judicial reform next week as diplomatic tensions simmer
(Reuters) – A controversial reform of Mexico’s judiciary will be debated and voted on in Congress next week, a leading ruling party lawmaker said on Wednesday, amid concerns from Canada and the U.S that the changes could impact investment and trade.
Canada’s government said that it respects Mexico’s sovereignty but that investors have expressed concern over the reform, which would elect judges – including Supreme Court justices – by popular vote.
That comes after strong criticism from U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar, who has called the reform a “major risk to the functioning of Mexico’s democracy.”
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Tuesday said he had paused relations with the Canadian and U.S. embassies in the country over their criticisms, which he said disrespected Mexico’s sovereignty. He stressed the pause was only with the embassies, and not with the countries.

7 June
The US, Canada, and Mexico need a more coordinated approach to their trade relationships with China
The U.S. has adopted a range of trade and investment restrictions on China in recent years, while Canada and Mexico have not implemented comparable restrictions.
Due to the interconnected nature of USMCA trade, Chinese exports can circumvent U.S. trade restrictions and enter the U.S. through Mexico and Canada.
In order to ensure that the USMCA and the open trade and investment regime it enables is supportive of intensifying economic competition and de-risking trade with China, more coordination between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico on their trade and investment policy setting with respect to China is needed.
Failure to collaborate on a more cohesive, North America-wide approach to China risks the U.S. adopting a more go-it-alone approach.
(Brookings) As the U.S. tightens trade and investment restrictions with respect to China and invests in developing critical sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and clean energy, deeper cooperation between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico under the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is needed. The USMCA gives businesses and traders certainty about the economic relationship between the three countries, and the long history of their cooperation should make North America the key economic platform for a more competitive and dynamic economy that is best placed to reduce exposure to Chinese supply chains and compete globally.

16 May
As Mexico, U.S. head to polls, Trudeau still aims to host trilateral summit in 2024
(Canadian Press) Canada has yet to set a date for the North American Leaders’ Summit, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he’s still aiming to host the gathering this year.
The summit has happened most years since 2005, and hosting duties rotate between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico for meetings that focus on transnational issues such as immigration and drug trafficking.
Canada agreed in January 2023 to host the next summit, and Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Alicia Barcena said in February that it would take place in Quebec in April.
“Canada has not yet confirmed the date or the location of the next summit,” Global Affairs Canada wrote in a statement.
Mexico heads to the polls on June 2, while the U.S. election takes place Nov. 5, and Trudeau said Thursday it’s been tricky navigating that schedule.
“It’s a little more challenging to pull together the Three Amigos summit, but we still intend to hold it in 2024,” he told reporters in Caraquet, N.B.
“Getting together to work on common issues is a huge priority. We continue to work bilaterally on a number of issues.”
… [Bruce Heyman, U.S. ambassador to Canada during the Obama administration] said the summit is a “critical format” to get countries on the same page around issues such as manufacturing, the environment and supply chains. He said the looming 2026 review of the trade deal that replaced NAFTA shouldn’t affect the next summit.
Yet he argued that a meeting before November would help countries set plans to limit the effect of policies that could harm relations if Donald Trump is elected in the U.S. on his pledges to implement trade and border restrictions, and to scrap certain environmental protections.
“It’s going to be important that Canada, Mexico and the U.S. find ways to protect this relationship, which I think under Trump 2.0 would be very, very difficult.”

2023

11 January
Ian Bremmer: Immigration a Biden priority at Three Amigos Summit
(GZero media) Well, immigration is very high only between the US and Mexico. But still, the fact that Biden is willing to use this pandemic era clause to try to keep migrants from coming to the United States was not on my Bingo card six months ago. A lot of progressive Dems are unhappy with him, and a lot of conservatives are saying he’s doing too little, too late, but nonetheless does recognize that he doesn’t win any votes on balance by having large number of illegal immigrants continue to come to the United States. Also, a whole bunch of new NAFTA stuff, especially trade relations on energy with the Mexicans, Americans, and the Canadians, pretty unhappy with what AMLO has been doing on that front.
Three Amigos talk and … that’s all, folks
Well, some progress is better than none at all — at least among “friends.” At their “Three Amigos” summit on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, and Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — known as AMLO — announced a slew of agreements on things like moving some US production of semiconductors to Mexico, cutting methane emissions to fight climate change, and installing EV charging stations on shared borders. But they failed to make significant headway on the thorniest issues: the record numbers of asylum-seekers entering the US from Mexico; Mexican-made fentanyl causing a public health catastrophe for los gringos; and USMCA-related trade disputes such as Mexico’s energy reforms or Canadian grumbling at the Biden administration’s EV subsidies. Indeed, perhaps the best thing to come out of the summit is that Biden and AMLO — who had a tense exchange on Day 1 — showed that despite their lack of personal chemistry, maybe they can be compadres after all.
10 January
Jeremy Kinsman & Larry Haas After no meetings during Trump, the Three Amigos meet again!
Jeremy is encouraged that “we are finally pitching a strategic approach” to North American economic growth and cooperation, but disappointed that Trudeau has not reacted positively to the invitation/challenge from the U.S. to lead an invited military mission to Haiti (Trudeau hedges on military mission to Haiti). While migration and US immigration reform remains the dominant US-Mexico bilateral issue, there is a need to work out a trilateral approach to energy that accommodates the differing national industry structures; the long-discussed common electrical grid should be a model for regional non-oil energy. Finally, the pursuit of fentanyl producers is one that neither Canada nor the US can do much about; the power of the drug lords in Mexico -and other countries- is such that politicians and police have only limited capabilities.
Canada, U.S., Mexico pledge to tighten economic ties, boost domestic production
By Jarrett Renshaw and Dave Graham, Reuters
(Global) The United States, Mexico and Canada on Tuesday vowed to tighten economic ties, producing more goods regionally and boosting semiconductor output, even as integration is hampered by an ongoing dispute over Mexico’s nationalist energy policies.
“We’re working to a future to strengthen our cooperation on supply chains and critical minerals so we can continue to accelerate in our efforts to build the technologies of tomorrow – right here in North America,” Biden said in a joint news conference with his fellow leaders after their meeting
Lopez Obrador said the region would promote economic development by creating a committee for import substitution to make North America less dependent on other parts of the world.
The United States said the region would in early 2023 organize a semiconductor forum to increase investment in the strategic high-tech industry dominated by Asia.
The White House said coordination would be needed on semiconductor supply chain mapping to identify needs and investment opportunities in making chips that are used in everything from telecoms to carmaking and defense.
After Rocky Start, Biden Builds Rapport With Mexico’s President
Warm gestures by the American president have helped cement a critical relationship with a Mexican leader whose cooperation on migration, climate change and the drug trade is crucial.
Significant challenges remain pressing on both sides of the border, and the two countries are not always aligned on how to contain an extraordinary movement of people across the Americas, curb the surging trade in fentanyl or combat climate change.
Energy remains a sticking point, as the United States and Canada have accused Mexico of violating a free-trade agreement with policies that boost a state-owned electrical utility over international companies.

Biden, López Obrador, Trudeau meet in Mexico City for summit
(AP) — President Joe Biden, Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are meeting for a series of talks on migration, trade and climate change on Tuesday as the three leaders try to mend tensions that have divided the continent.
The three-way gathering is held most years, although there was a hiatus while Donald Trump was U.S. president. It’s often called the “three amigos summit,” a reference to the deep diplomatic and economic ties between the countries.
However, the leaders still found themselves at odds, especially as they struggle to handle an influx of migrants and to crack down on smugglers who profit from persuading people to make the dangerous trip to the United States.
In addition, Canada and the U.S. accuse López Obrador of violating a free trade pact by favoring Mexico’s state-owed utility over power plants built by foreign and private investors. Meanwhile, Trudeau and López Obrador are concerned about Biden’s efforts to boost domestic manufacturing, creating concerns that U.S. neighbors could be left behind.
The centerpiece of the summit will be hours of talks with all three leaders, but Biden will start Tuesday with a bilateral meeting with Trudeau. It’s unlikely to be as contentious as his sitdown with López Obrador on Monday.
During that meeting, the Mexican leader challenged Biden to improve life across the region, telling him that “you hold the key in your hand.”
“This is the moment for us to determine to do away with this abandonment, this disdain, and this forgetfulness for Latin America and the Caribbean,” Lopez Obrador said.
Biden responded by pointing to the billions of dollars that the United States spends in foreign aid around the world, saying that “unfortunately our responsibility just doesn’t end in the Western Hemisphere.”
It was a noticeably sharp exchange after the two leaders had smiled and embraced and shaken hands for the cameras.
Biden and López Obrador haven’t been on particularly good terms for the past two years. The Mexican leader made no secret of his admiration for Trump, and last year he skipped a Los Angeles summit of the Americas because Biden didn’t invite the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
What’s on the agenda at the “Three Amigos Summit”?
(Signal, GZERO Media) A meeting of North American leaders known as the “Three Amigos Summit” kicked off in Mexico City on Monday. US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, met face-to-face for the first time since Nov. 2021 to chart a path forward on a range of thorny issues. Biden was greeted by his Mexican counterpart a day after making his first presidential visit to the US southern border. Indeed, the two have plenty to talk about. While Washington usually calls the shots when it comes to the US-Mexico relationship, AMLO will be looking to earn some concessions from Biden, who is desperately seeking help in dealing with a chaotic situation at the US border. This comes after Biden announced in recent days that Mexico had agreed to take in tens of thousands of Nicaraguan, Haitian, and Cuban migrants denied entry into the US in exchange for more work visas for Mexican laborers. Still, the White House might ask for more: While AMLO has agreed to take in an extra 30,000 migrants per month from these countries (plus Venezuela), some 90,000 people from these four places sought to cross the US southern border in November alone. Stopping the drug smuggling trade from Mexico into the US will also be high on the agenda as fentanyl overdoses continue to devastate American communities. Much of the remaining conversation will center on the United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal: Ottawa and Washington have accused AMLO of exerting excessive state control over the energy market. Meanwhile, Canada-US ties have been strained since the Biden administration’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act, passed last summer, included a slew of tax breaks for buying US-made electric vehicles, which Ottawa says will cripple its car manufacturing industry.

Justin Trudeau might find himself fighting for attention at ‘Three Amigos’ summit amid border issues
Migration crisis and the importation of illegal drugs likely to be Biden’s top priority at North American leaders summit
“I think as it’s currently framed, the North American Summit is a lot about Mexico,” said Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, who noted that Biden preceded his visit to Mexico by inspecting a busy port of entry for migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.
In that context, Trudeau’s main challenge as he steps foot in Mexico City will be “to be relevant and to be heard,” added Greenwood.
“For Canada to be really heard and noticed, it has to have one priority and it has to be really aggressive about it. And I realize that’s sort of un-Canadian,” she said. “But that’s the way it goes with trying to capture the attention and the imagination of the United States, which has a lot going on.”