Canada economy/energy/environment July 2026-

Canada – U.S. July 2026 –

28 August
Canada’s Economy Grows 3.3% as Exports, Investment Rebound
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Canadian economic growth accelerated to a 3.3% pace in the second quarter, driven by increases in exports, household spending, and business investment.
The expansion suggests businesses are adapting to US tariffs, but faces new headwinds amid renewed trade tensions with the US, including new 50% US tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.
Revised data showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, confirming Canada did not experience a technical recession and was on a better footing than previously thought in the first half of the year.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected 3.4% annualized growth in the second quarter, in line with Statcan’s preliminary industrial estimate.
It’s the fastest pace of growth in years and suggests businesses are adapting to US tariffs, a process the Bank of Canada also said it was seeing. However, that momentum faces new headwinds amid renewed trade tensions with the US

27 August
Canada Can Weather Latest US Tariffs, Economists Tell Carney’s Finance Chief
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Canada’s top economists told Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne that the damage from the trade war with the US should be manageable.
Economists agreed that Canada’s economy is strong enough to absorb President Donald Trump’s tariff salvos, with damage likely to be concentrated in sectors hit by the tariffs.
There is a caveat that the trade war may still escalate, with Trump threatening to put 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles and to hit auto parts on Jan. 1.
Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne called a private meeting with chief economists — including some representing the country’s largest banks — in Toronto to discuss the outlook after trade talks collapsed with the US, which is by far the largest buyer of Canadian exports.
Some economists have pared their growth forecasts and warned that small- and medium-sized businesses are likely to feel the brunt of the new import taxes the US has placed on hundreds of items from Canada. “A 50% tariff could well represent an insurmountable barrier for their ability to reach the US market,” economists at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce wrote.

17 August
N.L., Quebec announce new Churchill Falls agreement worth billions — with help from Ottawa
Federal government to provide $10B in financing for electricity projects
(CBC) Ottawa is calling it the largest clean energy investment in North American history.
Prime Minister Mark Carney was in St. John’s Monday to announce a new agreement on Churchill Falls and other electricity projects in Labrador, alongside N.L. Premier Tony Wakeham and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette.
“We are finally turning the page on one of the darkest chapters in our past, and replacing both the notorious 1969 Churchill Falls agreement and the 2024 [memorandum of understanding] with a better deal for all of us,” said Wakeham.
The projects will create 23,000 jobs, according to both levels of government.
The deal will give Quebec a much-needed source of secure power, while N.L. looks to make additional revenue off of natural resources as it faces crippling debt.

24 July
Canada and UAE sign free trade deal, signal investment deals in energy sector ‘very soon’
(Globe & Mail) The United Arab Emirates expects to announce investments in Canada’s energy sector “very soon,” its foreign trade minister said Friday at a signing ceremony marking the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade deal between the two countries.
Canada’s Minister of International Trade, Maninder Sidhu, and UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi met at Toronto’s Four Seasons Hotel to announce that they have reached a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) after several rounds of accelerated talks.
Leaders from the two countries agreed to negotiate a CEPA when Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Abu Dhabi in November last year.
The CEPA is intended to cut tariffs, remove trade barriers and expand market access to the UAE for Canadian exporters. The agreement still has to go through legal review, a final signing and ratification before it comes into force.

12 July
Carney talks about Canada’s ‘energy sovereignty.’ But what does that really mean?
Exporting oil, importing EVs among recent energy-related announcements
Shortly before Canada Day, Prime Minister Mark Carney posted a 17-minute video to YouTube explaining how this country would optimize oil production, and several days later, he stood next to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as she announced a much-anticipated proposal to build a new pipeline to the West Coast to quench Asian demand.
But the Carney government’s interpretation of energy sovereignty seems out of step with other countries, says Amy Janzwood, an assistant professor in the department of political science and the Bieler School of the Environment at McGill University in Montreal.
“‘Energy sovereignty’ has been used by countries that are reliant on imports of fossil fuels. Canada as a fossil fuel exporter is trying to mimic this language. But it means something very, very different.”
… Carney’s rhetoric raises the question: Is Canada aiming to develop self-sustaining energy sources or trying to shield the economy by maximizing the sales of its most profitable resource?
In the June 30 video, Carney laid out the three pillars of the “global energy crisis” as he sees it. The first is the affordability of energy, mainly the price of gasoline, which has shot up in recent months. The second is energy supply, which is being threatened by global factors like the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz. The third is climate change, which is manifesting itself in increasing wildfires and extreme weather.
Carney’s mantra is “when we control our own energy, we control our own future.” But the address was more about plans to sell our oil and gas than about ensuring we have enough energy ourselves, says Peter Nicholson, who was a deputy chief of staff for policy in the Prime Minister’s Office under Paul Martin.

2 July
CUSMA renewal deadline passed, U.S. tariffs remain—what it means for Canada and its economy
(The Hub) … The economic cost of waiting
The Bank of Canada projects GDP will finish 2026 roughly 1.5 percent lower than its pre-tariff trajectory, with about half the shortfall from reduced potential output. Deloitte’s summer outlook found that Canada technically didn’t quite slip into recession this year, but that the country’s economy is experiencing anemic growth and stagnation, citing CUSMA uncertainty as a leading culprit. The report also projects a paltry 0.7 percent of growth for Canada’s economy in 2026.
Goods exports to the U.S. fell 5.8 percent in 2025, nearly offset by a 17.2 percent jump elsewhere—though much of that gain reflects record gold shipments rather than diversification, and the U.S. share of Canadian exports fell to 71.7 percent, its lowest since the early 1980s.
A new BBC analysis pointed to some of the main issues of Canada’s struggling economy previously covered by The Hub: a technical recession in late 2025 and early 2026, inflation climbing to 3.2 percent in May, youth unemployment at 13.4 percent, and the largest household debt burden in the G7. Ontario auto-parts manufacturer James White told the BBC his firm’s sales are down 20 percent since the Trump tariffs began, with steel-derivative levies eating into investment in staff and equipment.
A recent Hub analysis found that pattern already underway: the gap between Canadian capital invested abroad and foreign capital invested in Canada has widened from $100.5 billion in 2014 to $828.4 billion by 2025—more than half the country’s entire inward investment stock. Canada lost more than $1 trillion in net investment to other countries during the preceding Trudeau government, the largest capital exodus in the country’s modern history, leaving Carney’s team racing to reverse a decade-long drought just as the trade uncertainty threatens to deepen it further.
[Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada} said the uncertainty is paralyzing investment regardless of underlying resilience. “Rational actors are saying: time is my friend here,” he said, describing CEOs unwilling to seek board approval for billion-dollar bets given ongoing geopolitical tension, tariff uncertainty, and the unresolved CUSMA review. Without resolution, he warned, Canada risks an extended stretch of sub-1 percent growth.