U.S. Government & Governance – primaries & midterms 2026

Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms with a 217-212 majority in the House, with five seats currently vacant and one independent. All 435 seats are up for election, but with maps continuing to shift because of redistricting, the Cook Political Report rates only 18 districts as tossups and another 20 as leaning toward one party. To retake the majority, Democrats would most likely need to hold all of their solid and likely seats, sweep those leaning their way, and flip 13 of the 18 tossups — a narrow but possible path given that the party out of power typically gains ground in the midterms.
That ongoing redistricting process, and a large number of retirements adds further uncertainty. At least 50 incumbents — a majority of whom are Republicans — are not seeking re-election, but most are in seats that are not expected to be competitive. – NYT Poll Tracker

4 August
Michigan Governor primary results
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson in the race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Jocelyn Benson wins. AP race call at 9 p.m. on Aug. 4, 2026.

Pro-Israel Democrat Fends Off Democratic Socialist’s Comeback Attempt in Missouri
Representative Wesley Bell beat Cori Bush, his predecessor, in a rematch. He will be a heavy favorite in the safely Democratic district in November.

Michigan’s Senate primary on Aug. 4 is shaping up as the biggest test yet of whether the Democrats’ progressive wing can score a major victory in a presidential battleground heading into 2028, or whether longstanding weakness with Black voters will undercut its national ambitions. The contest pits Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate backed by much of the party establishment, against progressive Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit-area health official endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A swing state won twice by Donald Trump but carried by Joe Biden in 2020, Michigan is a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the Senate in November.

26 July
Michigan, Missouri primaries will again lay bare the Democratic divide over Israel
(CNN) Fiercely fought primaries on August 4 in Michigan and Missouri will provide the next crucial tests in the debate over American policy toward Israel that has convulsed the Democratic Party this year.
For years, critics of Israel like Bush and El-Sayed were largely marginalized in the Democratic Party. But the party’s primaries this year have demonstrated an explosion of frustration among rank-and-file Democratic voters over Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank and elsewhere under long-time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The intensity of that backlash has rapidly reset the terms of the Democratic debate over Israel. … Today, Democrats are debating not whether, but how extensively, to reconfigure American policy toward Israel and the Palestinians.
Results in Democratic primaries this year so far show a split decision, with progressive candidates deeply critical of Israel advancing mostly in safe blue districts, and centrists who would preserve more of the traditional relationship prevailing in most swing districts and states that will decide control of Congress.

Republicans see ‘scary’ lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms
Pollsters and GOP groups are raising the alarm about an unmotivated base in an election year that would be tough no matter what, given the president’s low approval.
(WaPo) … A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.
The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, …

24 July
(AP) — Nearly 150,000 California voters had their mail-in ballots rejected for the state’s June primary, a spike from recent elections even as the state attempts to make voting easier with the goal of boosting participation and counting every ballot.
California has become notorious for its ponderously slow vote counts that can drag on for weeks and sometimes longer, largely the result of multiple changes over the years that were intended to increase turnout but have done little to achieve that. Among the changes: Every voter receives a mail-in ballot that can arrive at an election office seven days late and still be counted, provided the envelope is postmarked by Election Day. … Voting experts suspect the main problem is postmarks on ballots that came after Election Day, making them ineligible to be counted

19-24 July
(AP) — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on Friday, in a race with Abdul El-Sayed that has become a focal point for the party’s fight between its moderate establishment and progressive wings.
Whitmer remains popular in the battleground state, where she has twice won by substantial margins, and her endorsement gives Stevens a significant boost a day before early in-person voting begins. Whitmer also has history with El-Sayed, whom she defeated in the 2018 Democratic primary for governor.
The second-term governor appeared with Stevens and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn in Detroit on Friday, repeating her endorsement in front of more than 100 people at a Teamsters hall. She said Steven has “what it takes to win.”
AIPAC has spent a record amount on Michigan’s Senate primary, the biggest test of its influence yet
(AP) — Senate candidate Haley Stevens talks often about manufacturing, taking on President Donald Trump and why she’s the Democrat best positioned to win Michigan. The congresswoman has far less to say about the pro-Israel group that has spent millions trying to get her elected.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing Stevens — their largest investment ever in a single race — as they seek to defeat progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed in the Aug. 4 primary.

GOP midterm strategy: Make it a “hate election”
(Axios) Republicans admit the GOP’s midterm forecast is bleak. But they’re clinging to two hopes: voters’ fear and loathing of Democrats.
“It’s going to be a hate election,” a Republican tied to President Trump’s political operation told Axios. “Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with.”
There’s broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections worse by not focusing heavily on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation.
Trump’s prime-time speech Thursday night about China’s alleged influence campaign targeting U.S. voters six years ago did little to assuage those concerns. …
Trump hopes his speech will pressure Congress to pass his controversial SAVE America Act and excite his base voters to turn out. But GOP pollsters and election pros outside of the White House say it’s falling on deaf ears.
“We’ve studied this, and it’s not a winner,” said a Republican pollster working on multiple races nationwide. “Our research shows people want the president to make their life better, and they don’t believe he has.”
The pollster’s data now indicate Democrats could wind up with a seven-seat majority in the House, where Republicans currently have a six-seat edge. Trump’s net approval rating is underwater by 10 points.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll out Thursday showed Trump’s net approval rating was even worse among registered voters: -19%.

16-17 July
Trump’s Plan for November Is Failing
His efforts to subvert the 2026 midterms have largely come up short.
By David A. Graham
(The Atlantic)  … Trump has been remarkably successful in his push to gerrymander ahead of the midterms. Several Republican states have redrawn their districts to add GOP-leaning seats, the Supreme Court’s April decision in Louisiana v. Callais allowed other states to move forward with their own maps, and a state court in Virginia shot down retaliatory gerrymandering that would have assisted Democrats. In all, this has given Republicans several more likely seats.
But nearly everything else has faltered, including the president’s signature legislative initiative to overhaul elections by, in part, requiring votes to provide proof of citizenship. Last week, Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill “in PROTEST over the fact that the United States Senate is not capable of passing THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.” This is a peculiar and ineffective gesture—the housing bill became law anyway—but he’s right about the prospects for the SAVE America Act.
Yesterday, Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican from North Carolina, vowed to block the legislation if it comes up again. As Tillis noted, it would now be too late to implement for the midterms anyway.
Most of the subversion methods Trump has tried, however, have been executive actions that don’t require Congress. But the president doesn’t have control over elections—that power is delegated to the states or to Congress. As a result, most of Trump’s big moves have either been blocked by courts or simply ignored by state and local officials.

What to know about the SAVE America Act and Trump’s push for voting changes
President Donald Trump wants Congress to pass a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote plus voter ID at the polls. The odds of doing so before November are slim.
(NBC) Despite pressure from the president as well as several House and Senate Republicans — and weeks spent debating the bill on the Senate floor — it lacks the necessary support to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the upper chamber. Trump has called for eliminating the filibuster altogether to pass the legislation, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has said his caucus is “not even close” to having the votes to do that.
The SAVE Act or the SAVE America Act?
Last year, the House passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act. The bill never gained traction in the Senate.
On Feb. 11, the House passed an expanded version of the bill at Trump’s urging called the SAVE America Act, on a 218-213 vote.
Democrats and even some Republicans oppose both versions of the bill. Millions of people do not have access to passports or birth certificates and could be disenfranchised by the requirement to prove citizenship to register to vote.

8 July
Democratic Infighting Puts Party’s Midterm Targets at Risk
Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, left, and Graham Platner, Democratic Senate candidate for Maine, during a Fighting Oligarchy event in Portland, Maine on May 25. Sanders, a progressive icon, rescinded his endorsement of Platner this week. Photographer: Sophie Park/Bloomberg
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By Nancy Cook
July 8, 2026 at 6:02 PM EDT
Updated on July 8, 2026 at 8:58 PM EDT
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI

Democrats are facing infighting between different factions, which threatens to undermine the party’s potential success in the midterm elections.
The crisis is playing out in Maine, where Senate candidate Graham Platner has suspended his campaign and is moving to withdraw from the race following a sexual assault allegation.
The battle lines between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party are growing, with progressives trying to flex their power and moderates worrying that more leftist candidates won’t be palatable to broader groups of voters.

With President Donald Trump and Republicans on the defensive over the cost of groceries, gasoline, housing and healthcare, Democrats expected to spend the summer building momentum ahead of the midterm elections.

That’s not happening.

Instead of assembling a midterms juggernaut, persistent infighting between different factions of Democrats from Maine to Colorado threatens to drown out the party’s messaging and undermine its potential success in November — including its shot at retaking the US Senate.

The crisis is playing out in real time in Maine, where Senate candidate Graham Platner has sought a say in how he is replaced on the ballot following a sexual assault allegation which he has repeatedly denied.

Platner said Wednesday he is suspending his campaign and moving to withdraw from the race. He said his team won the primary the “right way” but suggested he was the victim of an effort to get him off the ballot and said the voters who chose him deserve a voice in picking a successor.

“Now the ball is in the court of the Democratic establishment,” Platner said in an 11-minute video on X. “My name might be on the ballot right now, but that ballot line belongs to the people of Maine.”
Over the past month, the strains between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party have only grown after democratic socialist-backed candidates prevailed in a series of primary races.

“There is a strong anti-establishment, reformist, populist mood in the country — I don’t think it is limited to Democrats. I see it among independents,” says David Axelrod, a former top adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s not just about Trump. It’s about a system that people feel has failed them and a conventional politics that is inadequate to the moment.”

That anti-establishment mood was showcased in the recent Democratic primaries in Colorado, where first-time politician and Democratic Socialists of America candidate Melat Kiros beat longtime incumbent Representative Diana DeGette in a primary upset.
Abdul El-Sayed, left, and Haley Stevens on a television during a debate inside the spin room at WoodTV studios in Grand Rapids on July 7.Photographer: Kristen Norman/AP Photo

It’s also rearing its head in Michigan, a swing state Trump carried in 2016 and 2024. Representative Haley Stevens, backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, is running for a US Senate seat against former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, who counts on support from New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives.
The two candidates are vying to ensure the seat now held by retiring Senator Gary Peters stays in Democratic hands. Retaining control of that is essential if the party has any chance to retake the Senate. Republicans, meanwhile, have largely rallied around Representative Mike Rogers, a well-known lawmaker with national security credentials.
In that race and across the country, Democratic Party moderates worry that leftist candidates who win in the primaries won’t be palatable to the broader group of voters who take part in the general election. Trump and GOP officials have already started calling those candidates “communists” who threaten America.
With polls showing continuing voter dissatisfaction over Trump’s handling of the economy and the Iran war, the Democrats still have advantages. And despite a year of redistricting and Supreme Court decisions related to voting that have generally favored Republicans, Democrats are still favored to retake the House of Representatives in November.
The Senate, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats, has always been a tougher hill for Democrats to climb. But almost any path to the majority there includes flipping Maine’s Senate seat.

1 July
Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find
(NYT) Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as they try to maintain their majority. Democrats are competitive in all six states — but not leading in enough to take the chamber.
Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall, according to new New York Times/Siena polls in six Senate battleground states.

30 June
We’re over halfway through primary season. Here’s what the battlegrounds tell us.
Two-thirds of the way through primary season, results from dozens of hotly contested battlegrounds across the country reveal a Republican Party that remains fully captured by President Donald Trump, even in swing districts that have at times rejected his brand, and a Democratic Party that is still consumed by factional infighting over how to win.
(Politico) Republican voters have rallied behind candidates who closely align themselves with Trump and the MAGA brand, from Rep. Mike Collins and billionaire Rick Jackson in Georgia, to Bobby Charles and Marty O’Donnell in Nevada’s 3rd District. Trump-endorsed candidates have largely won their primaries this year, with a few high-profile exceptions in Iowa, Georgia and South Carolina, where Trump ended up endorsing both Republicans in the gubernatorial runoff at the last minute.
Democrats are being pulled by competing visions for their party’s future. For Texas Senate, Democrats chose buttoned-up James Talarico, but for Maine Senate they picked scandal-plagued Graham Platner. For New York’s 17th District on Tuesday, Democrats nominated no-nonsense and establishment-aligned veteran Cait Conley, but in California’s 22nd District, voters bucked party leadership and chose a firebrand progressive in Randy Villegas.
Progressive Democrat Wins Colorado Primary for Competitive House Seat
Manny Rutinel, a state representative and former activist, will face Representative Gabe Evans, a Republican seen as vulnerable, in the fall.

24 June
Insurgency Over Incumbency: 7 Takeaways From New York’s Primaries
All three congressional candidates who were backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani won in Tuesday’s primary, bolstering his political movement.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani made a big bet and emerged victorious on Tuesday, becoming an undeniable power broker in New York politics just one year after his Democratic primary victory stunned the political establishment.

1-24 June
Data center fallout upends Utah politics, ousting Senate president
Republican support for Box Elder Stratos Project plummets into negative territory
The Battle for Box Elder
(Slate) … Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary wants to bring the world’s largest A.I. campus to Utah. Over the past month, the Canadian American businessman has been planning out this megaproject alongside financiers, private landowners, military strategists, and state officials, on 40,000 acres of unincorporated land in Box Elder County, right next to the ever-dwindling Great Salt Lake. The idea is to collaborate with the military to install a 30-building “hyperscale” cluster as a matter of national security—i.e., to use a swath of undeveloped Western land to produce high-level American A.I. … There’s a problem with these futuristic plans, however: A lot of people in Box Elder County don’t want this. Community data center resistance is not a new trend in the U.S. But it’s been potent enough for Box Elder County that, even in deep-red Utah, the people are likely to demand significant political overhaul.

23 June
Fired Navy Admiral Wins Democratic Runoff in South Carolina’s 1st District
Democrats expect Nancy Lacore to run a competitive general election despite the district’s Republican leaning.
(NYT) [Admiral] Nancy Lacore, a former Navy admiral who was fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, won the Democratic nomination for the First Congressional District of South Carolina, according to The Associated Press.
[Admiral] Lacore defeated Mac Deford, a Coast Guard veteran who was previously the general counsel for the town of Hilton Head Island.

9 June
Election highlights: Midterm matchups take shape with primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina
In California, Republican Steve Hilton will advance to face Democrat Xavier Becerra in November, NBC News projected this evening. The state’s primaries were held June 2.
Voters cast ballots today for primary elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina. The governor’s races in Maine and South Carolina are the most competitive on the ballot, while Maine’s Senate race with Graham Platner has captured national attention. Track live results from the Decision Desk.
CALIFORNIA ELECTION UPDATE: Former Fox News host Steve Hilton has advanced to the general election in the California governor’s race, NBC News projects. He will face Democrat Xavier Becerra, who was secretary of health and human services during the Biden administration.
Key takeaways from the primaries in Maine, South Carolina, Nevada
Graham Platner easily secured Maine’s Democratic nomination for a key U.S. Senate seat. In South Carolina, Republican Rep. Nancy Mace’s career derailed.

11 May
Voter confusion and headaches for election officials follow hasty GOP push to redraw US House seats
(AP) — Thousands of Louisiana voters have already cast early ballots for congressional candidates in what soon could be the wrong districts. Alabama’s primaries are a week away, but the state could force a do-over for voting on U.S. House races. A new congressional map in Tennessee upended races that had been underway for months.
Republicans’ rush to gerrymander congressional districts across several Southern states after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling hollowed out the Voting Rights Act is confusing voters and creating logistical headaches for local election officials. The changes are hitting while primary season is in progress.
The chaotic upheaval to an election season that could determine which party controls the U.S. House is the latest fallout from an intensely partisan gerrymandering battle initiated by President Donald Trump last year to protect Republicans’ slim majority.

9 April
Trump’s Next Coup Attempt
Timothy Snyder
While turning a foreign war into a domestic dictatorship is complicated and difficult, Donald Trump could try to do so in one of five ways. But even the most likely scenario—using an act of terror as a pretext to delay or discredit the midterms—will not work if Americans are vigilant and refuse to obey in advance.
(Project Syndicate) The United States is seven months away from the most consequential midterm elections in its history. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, together with Israel, has started a war against Iran. These are the ideal conditions for a head of state to seize power in a coup.
Trump’s chief concern is preserving his own comfort and power, much of which will be lost if the Democrats retake control of the House of Representatives, as they look poised to do. Clearly, Trump has no qualms about election meddling: he already attempted to overturn the 2020 presidential election and has mused about canceling the midterms. More recently, he has tried to push through legislation that would severely restrict voting, making it a privilege.

29 March
5 Takeaways From the ‘No Kings’ Rallies as the Midterms Heat Up
– The war in Iran was a galvanizing force, but plenty of protesters focused on President Trump’s immigration crackdown. Senate candidates in several key races joined the crowds.
– The war seemed to galvanize younger voters.
– Trump’s immigration crackdown remains a focus.
– Dueling protests unfolded near Mar-a-Lago.
Midterm candidates came out in force. – From sunny Southern California to the unseasonably frigid northern reaches of New England, Democratic candidates in the midterm elections took to the streets to vent with voters about the Trump administration.
– Democrats found fresh fuel for their ‘No Kings’ slogan.
Two days before the protests, the Treasury Department said that it would begin printing dollars with Mr. Trump’s signature on them, a first for a sitting U.S. president.
The move continued a trend for Mr. Trump, whose allies have sought to put his name on the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and the U.S. Institute of Peace, among other institutions and landmarks. The efforts have enraged many of his critics, who cast him as an aspiring monarch.
In a nod to the protests, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said on Saturday that she planned to introduce a bill to bar presidents from putting their name, likeness or signature on federal property or money.
“In America,” Ms. Gillibrand said in a statement, “we do not bow to kings.”

12 March
AI will be on the ballot in the 2026 midterms
(GZERO media) … Because of its broadly ominous reputation, Noah Daponte-Smith, a US analyst at Eurasia Group, expects AI to be “background music” in American politics in 2026, amplifying anxieties about the economy rather than commanding the campaign on its own.
Worried about your power bill? Electricity prices jumped 6.9% in 2025, with data centers accounting for roughly 40% of the growth in electricity demand. Worried about your job? AI is the new automation threat – only this time, it’s coming for white-collar work.
“I see this playing out for voters on two main lines: data center development (of which electricity prices are a subcomponent) and worker protection,” says Daponte-Smith.
… Big Tech invests big in midterms. The tech industry is pouring money into races. Leading the Future, a super PAC backed by OpenAI President Greg Brockman, venture firm Andreessen Horowitz, and Palantir co-Founder Joe Lonsdale, has raised $125 million to hamper pro-regulation candidates from both parties in 2026.
The playbook was borrowed directly from crypto: in 2024, the crypto-friendly Fairshake PAC became the single-largest corporate donor in the election cycle and helped elect more than 50 candidates. The AI industry is looking to repeat the formula. So far, the members of the AI industry have put approximately $150 million and counting towards the 2026 midterms.

10 March
1 big thing: Republicans’ midterm road map
(Axios) …  Zoom out: History is not on the GOP’s side this November.
🤕 Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump’s first midterm. President Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the first midterm after he was elected.
👟 Lawmakers in both parties are fleeing Congress at a record rate, with 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats planning to leave the House at the end of this Congress.
Trump is also a drag on Republicans as his favorability rating remains well underwater, with his approval rating in the low 40s.
Historically, the party with more departures tends to lose seats, and often the majority.
But with a small map — around two dozen seats in toss-up districts — Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by 3% to win the majority.

9 March
Timothy Snyder Thinking Live with David Pepper on Ohio, Elections, and the Future
We have an unusually interesting Democratic ticket in Ohio in the gubernatorial elections — and they could very well win. I spoke back in November to the amazing Dr. Amy Acton, who is running for governor. Joining her on the ticket is David Pepper, whom I know mainly as the author of fine books of political analysis and strategy. If you want a break from war news, and want to consider something very good that [could] happen this fall, please tune in…
House Republicans’ meager majority faces big problems ahead of the midterms
The party’s annual policy retreat comes amid challenges posed by the Middle East war and weakening economy.
(Politico) Internally, turmoil continues to wrack the GOP’s ultra-narrow majority. Renegade members are routinely bucking leadership — for instance, hauling in Trump’s attorney general for testimony on the Jeffrey Epstein probe. And last week’s primaries generated a fresh trio of lame-duck Republicans who leaders fear might no longer feel compelled to show up for votes on a regular basis.
… On top of it all, Trump has focused his legislative energies on matters far afield from what many Republican lawmakers want to tackle. In recent days, he has renewed his push for a long-shot elections bill, adding in additional provisions targeting transgender rights for good measure.
The members gathering at Trump’s Doral resort Monday are seeking to keep the focus on what they can control — with plans to discuss a new party-line budget reconciliation bill as well as so-far elusive options to lower health care costs, fund the Department of Homeland Security and advance stalled housing legislation.

3-4 March
Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley Advance in North Carolina Senate Race
North Carolina has broken national Democrats’ hearts for nearly two decades, but this time they hope that Roy Cooper, the former governor, can once again find a path to victory.
(NYT) Roy Cooper, a former Democratic governor of North Carolina, and Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, won their respective primaries for a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press.
The results set the stage for a November matchup that Democrats believe they must win to have any chance of netting at least four seats in the Senate, which they need to regain control of the chamber.
Texas U.S. Senate Primary Election Results
Republicans
John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have advanced to a runoff.
Democrats
Talarico wins Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas
(WaPo) Talarico, a state lawmaker, positioned himself as an effective messenger to moderates and disaffected Republicans in his win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Al Green, Menefee head to runoff in member-on-member Democratic primary
(Politico) The two were pitted against each other in Texas’ newly drawn 18th District following the state GOP’s redistricting last year.