Wednesday Night #2317

Canada-U.S.
Wednesday 12 August 3pm
Canada, U.S. not yet ready to make tariff deal, Canada unsatisfied with latest U.S. offer: sources
Canadian and American negotiators have exchanged a number of offers in recent weeks
As Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette head down to the wire (19 August) on trade negotiations the Canadian American Business Council released a New Economic Report on the Impacts of US-Canada Tariff Escalation and USMCA providing a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral commercial relationship and the likely economic consequences of three distinct potential outcomes of USMCA negotiations. (See Long reads)
CUSMA breakdown could mean hundreds of thousands of jobs, trillions of dollars lost:
Tuesday’s 1Politics evening brief reports Canada’s auto sector is urging the Carney government to remain firm in trade negotiations with the U.S. even if that means no immediate relief from the punishing tariffs on the industry.
Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association of Canada, is quoted generously. Peter Frise reminds us that “when the piece mentions the “auto sector” they are actually referring to Flavio Volpe who is the leader of a portion of the auto PARTS sector. [He] does not represent any of the automakers nor does he represent any of the companies that make parts for the Japanese automakers Honda Canada and Toyota Canada.”
Gordie Howe bridge saw more than 41K crossings into Canada in first 5 days: StatCan
Thousands have crossed the bridge since it opened on July 27
Tens of thousands of Canadians call for U.S. Ambassador Hoekstra to be expelled

The Americas
Another deadly earthquake in South America some six weeks after the June 24 twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela devastating the country’s northern coast,and killing more than 6,000 people.
Scores dead in Colombia after powerful earthquake strikes west of country
Quake of 7.4 magnitude collapses and severely damages buildings in several major cities, including Cali and Pereira
“The ⁠national government has all of its capabilities deployed to protect lives, assist affected communities and deliver aid wherever it is ​needed,” Colombia’s [very new] president, Abelardo de la Espriella, said in a national address after declaring ‌a national state of emergency.

Middle East & Arab World
Syrian court sentences Bashar al-Assad to death in absentia for war crimes
Verdict relates to atrocities committed during the country’s 14-year civil war in which about 500,000 people died
U.S.-Iran
Despite Trump’s clams that US has ‘control’ of the Strait of Hornuz, the situation is deadlocked
Panama canal fees soar due to Iran war and El Niño as ship ‘pays $4m to jump queue’
Falling water levels linked to weather system are expected to limit number of slots to transit shipping lane
[C]ommercial ships travelling through the Panama canal are facing a rise in costs amid disruption triggered by the Iran war and falling water levels linked to this year’s intense El Niño weather system.
Highlighting the fragility of global trade, a container ship reportedly paid about $4m (£3m) to jump a queue of vessels waiting to pass through the vital maritime choke point.

Afghanistan
Saturday the 15th marks the 5th anniversary since the US forces left Kabul and Afghanistan to the mercies of the Taliban.
The Economist asks Is it time to talk to the Taliban?
The West’s Afghanistan strategy has failed. In 2021, America withdrew from the country, ending two decades of fighting and nation-building with almost nothing to show for it. The Taliban swiftly reclaimed power and imposed a brutal regime; Western countries opted to isolate the country and do their best to forget the whole sorry misadventure. Five years on, this shun-and-shrug approach has achieved little. Is it time to try something new?
For those who have read -or intend to read the highly recommended The Finest Hotel in Kabul – A People’s History of Afghanistan, a poignant footnote 2.4 million Afghan girls shut out of secondary school 5 years after Taliban takeover, UN says
(AP) — An estimated 2.4 million Afghan girls remain excluded from secondary education five years after the Taliban took over the country, a U.N. agency said Tuesday, renewing a call for an immediate restoration of their right to education.

U.S.
Tuesday’s primaries yielded mixed results for the fans of ‘progressive’ Democrats as well as for Trump-endorsed Republicans
Four takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries in six states
In Democratic primaries in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Connecticut, voters leaned toward younger, more progressive candidates who oppose President Trump’s immigration policies. … Trump-endorsed Sen. Darline Graham got enough support to advance to a runoff election for her late brother Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat. But despite the president’s support, MyPillow founder Mike Lindell lost his primary for governor of Minnesota.

Before we set up a cheer – what/who will replace her?
Trump reveals Karoline Leavitt to step down as White House press secretary
Leavitt is departing her role to spend more time with family after giving birth to her second child, according to Trump.
Karoline Leavitt: six key takeaways from 20 months as Trump’s press secretary

A troubling story
Trump says Secret Service and the military wanted him off Air Force One in Turkey due to threat
President Donald Trump says he slipped away from Air Force One after a trip last month in Turkey because the Secret Service and military wanted him on a “different plane” due to a threat
Trump downplayed the extraordinary nature of the subterfuge involved in his flight, which saw him stow away in an airport catering container to sneak onto another plane while Air Force One was sent into the sky, essentially as a decoy.
He also downplayed the risk to the people — White House officials, security and support staff, and reporters — he left on the plane.
Following numerous stories about Trump’s flight from Ankara last month on another plane rather than his Big Beautiful Qatar-gifted Air Force One because the latter was not up to security standards, it has been revealed that he was secretly moved from the substitute Air Force One to a third aircraft.  Aboard the president’s legacy Air Force One were White House staff, military personnel, Secret Service and journalists, essentially serving as unknowing decoys.
The media is outraged – rightly- The press and the White House have an undertaking that ensures the president’s movements are independently covered, especially in high-risk situations, Often, embargoes are used to prevent information from being released until the president is safe. But the Trump administration ditched the press entirely and went to great lengths to continue the ruse after the immediate danger had passed, including having the Justice Department send FBI agents to serve subpoenas to journalists covering the security issues related to that flight. White House journalists traveling with the president work to ensure that the American public doesn’t have to rely solely on the government’s word on what happens. This role is even more crucial during times of war and rampant conspiracy theories, NPR’s Tamara Keith says.

Quebec politics
With the approach of the expected October 5th Quebec elections, Leaders come out swinging as summer pre-election campaign kicks off and Crank up election hostilities in what is shaping up as a battle in the regions for nationalist votes. and launching the occasional policy potshot.
Mona Beck has issued a challenge to all leaders: –and we suspect this is a question being raised across the country
“Issues related to language, secularism and sovereignty are likely to play a central role in the coming Quebec election campaign. But for many seniors, including English-speaking seniors, a competing ballot issue is taking shape: demography.
Providing assisted-living services to the growing retiree population poses huge challenge.
For several decades, we’ve been hearing about an approaching “crise démographique” in Quebec. About how, with an aging society and declining birthrates, Quebec is heading toward strained public budgets, severe labour shortages and health-care overload. And about how hard it’s going to be to provide good assisted-living services to a growing population of retirees. …
That crisis isn’t just approaching anymore. It has arrived, just in time for the election campaign.”
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon launched a plea via an opinion piece in the National Post Anglo-Quebecers deserve better government The PQ will solve Quebec’s problems, for the benefit of English- and French-speakers.
As Andrew Caddell writes thus week, the Feds are not helping:
The Canadian Forces just shot themselves in the foot
the Canadian military’s decision to make about 180 previously bilingual units effectively unilingual is a serious mistake, especially for Quebec and francophones. He suggests the military should be strengthening French under the new Official Languages Act, not reducing its use because some units struggle to meet bilingualism requirements. The move shows a lack of respect for francophone members and could further alienate Quebecers. The timing is especially bad politically because the Parti Québécois can now point to the policy as evidence that Canada doesn’t properly protect French.

Varia
The original inspiration for “The King and I”
English Governess at the Siamese Court
The author recounts her adventures with the King of Siam.
By Anna Leonowens
From The Atlantic April 1870 Issue (See Long reads)
The Bayeux Tapestry’s Long and Bumpy Road to London
French art experts insisted the fragile 900-year-old masterpiece could never travel. Political will, cutting-edge engineering and unorthodox diplomacy proved them wrong.
…against the odds, the tapestry is now in London. On July 9, at 6:15 p.m., a bright yellow truck carrying the masterpiece, sealed in a climate- and vibration-controlled case, left Bayeux in a secretive overnight operation. Accompanied by members of the French security services, the truck drove onto a Eurostar train that took it under the sea through the Channel Tunnel.
Once in England, the truck crawled through the night to the British Museum in London, where its cargo will be the star of a blockbuster exhibition that opens Sept. 10 and runs through July 11. (See Long reads)
An AI chatbot is joining the search for art looted by the Nazis
A team at Santa Clara University in Silicon Valley is aspiring to do just that, with a new AI chatbot that could help streamline the complicated process of getting these works back to their owners. It’s part of a broader shift toward digital tools in the field of art provenance and repatriation. (See Long Reads)
Diving rewards
‘Big emotion’: Freediver discovers ancient Roman shipwreck off the coast of Sicily
An Ancient Roman shipwreck believed to date back more than 2,000 years has been discovered off the coast of Sicily. The wreck was found by freediver Giacomo De Mola, whose radar picked up what he initially thought was a ‘strange rock.’ The cargo appears to consist of amphoras, which are Roman vases used for storing and transporting liquids.
Divers find 162-year-old Guinness in shipwreck off the English coast
When Belgian underwater photographer Stefan Panis discovered a bottle buried in a shipwreck off the coast of Dover in 2025, he had no idea what he had found. He just knew something about it had caught his eye.
When Panis and his friend, Eddie Huzzey, surfaced, a quick rinse revealed the familiar Guinness branding. The bottle dates back to 1864.
A dog saved Houssein Hamze from a bomb. When war returned, he stayed to care for Lebanon’s animals

The $2 Million Fly Swatter
(the Rude Awakening) A first-person-view drone costs a few hundred dollars. A workshop of volunteers can build dozens a day. And one of them, flown by a kid who learned on video games, can destroy a tank that costs millions and takes a year to build. … Our generals aren’t fools. The system pays them to build the wrong thing.
Dragan Fly Inc.
Draganfly, Inc. is.a small drone producer in Saskatoon that produces the Dragan Fly drones. It is a leader in cutting-edge drone solutions and software that are transforming industries and serving stakeholders globally.

Further to Jeremy Kinsman‘s must-read Policy piece, From Davos to Diplomacy: Canada’s New Foreign Service Marching Orders
Canada will lose influence if diplomacy transformed to singular focus on trade, say former envoys (paywall)
Former ambassadors have questions about what Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has suggested is a ‘new way’ of doing diplomacy.

Long reads
The Bayeux Tapestry’s Long and Bumpy Road to London

The English Governess at the Siamese Court

An AI chatbot is joining the search for art looted by the Nazis

Economic Impacts of US-Canada Tariff Escalation Under the USMCA,
provides a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral commercial relationship and the likely economic consequences of three distinct potential outcomes of USMCA negotiations.

Trump used elaborate ruse to fly out of Turkey following summit because of Iran threat, report says
The Flawed Logic of Trump’s Airplane Escape
The president cleverly evaded a serious threat, but he shouldn’t have kept it a secret.
By Tom Nichols