U.S. Government & Governance 2026 Midterms 3 November random notes

A historic blue wave, a stunning rejection of Trump and other takeaways from the midterms
(CNN) A historic Democratic wave swept the party into power in Congress and in statehouses across the country on Tuesday, as voters rebuked President Donald Trump and rejected the candidates he’d propped up in key races.
In an election in which Trump urged his faithful to vote like he was on the ballot, Republicans were washed out of power in places the party hadn’t lost in a generation — and sometimes more. Democrats won a Senate race in Kansas for the first time since the 1930s; a Senate seat in South Carolina that they’d lost when Strom Thurmond switched parties in the 1960s; and a slew of statewide offices in Texas, where they hadn’t won any since the 1990s.
The gains the GOP had made during the Trump era, particularly among Latinos and in rural areas, were wiped out in a single night.
And after a decade of dismal showings in the Rust Belt and Great Plains, the Democratic Party roared back to life in Middle America. The party won both the governor’s office and a Senate race in each of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio. It won House races in districts Trump won by 20 percentage points just two years ago and toppled GOP state legislative supermajorities in states like Indiana and Missouri. And Democrats entrenched in statehouses a new generation of potential political stars who now have opportunities to build on the Democratic gains in their states — in figures like Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, Iowa Gov.-elect Rob Sand and Indiana Secretary of State-elect Beau Bayh.
… Candidates who had aligned themselves with the president and mimicked Trump’s approach to controversy, like Vivek Ramaswamy in the Ohio governor’s race and Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, lost. So did hardline conservatives he chose over more moderate contenders, like Rep. Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate race.
His redistricting gambit, a bid to redraw red states’ congressional maps to solidify the GOP’s narrow House majority, also fell flat, with Democrats winning a number of seats even after Republicans had changed the maps to limit their odds of doing so.

Paul Krugman: It Wasn’t (Just) the Economy, Stupid
What happened last night was no ordinary election. It was a mass affirmation that most Americans still believe in our nation’s basic values, and a mass rejection of a movement that wants to destroy everything our nation stands for. And no, it wasn’t just economic dissatisfaction.
Yes, Trumpflation created by tariffs and the Iran debacle helped. But an election swung by public anger over high prices looks like 2024, when Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. Last night Democrats appear to have won the popular vote by 13 -14 percentage points.
What drove this amazing victory? Hispanic voters, who swung to Trump in 2024 in the naïve belief that he would bring prices down, turned massively against a regime that is arresting, imprisoning and deporting their friends and families. Blacks turned out in droves against a transparently racist party that is trying to take away their voting rights. Americans of every kind were repelled by the administration’s cruelty and its rampant, brazen corruption.
The main point for now is that MAGA took 2024 as proof that Americans want fascism, and acted on that premise. But tens of millions of Americans in effect said, no, that is not what we want. That is not who we are.
The damage done over the last two years is incredible, and I don’t know how much of it can ever be repaired. But there is, at last, hope. For last night America showed that it is still America.
Dems the breaks
Ian Bremmer
While the president’s party historically loses midterm elections, the scale of Republican losses is among the largest in decades, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s historic corruption, war in Iran, unpopular tariffs, and focus on vanity projects – from ballrooms to arches – that aren’t voter priorities.
It’s a loss that will have far-reaching ramifications for the final two years of the Trump administration and the 2028 presidential election.
Democrats exceeded even optimistic predictions for their performance.
Call 1: Democrats will win both the House (with at least 20 seats flipping blue) and the Senate (with a majority between 51 and 53 seats).
Not only did James Talarico defeat scandal-plagued Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but Gina Hinojosa also defeated longtime Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. Democrats flipped North Carolina on the strength of former Governor Roy Cooper’s campaign, but they also managed to pick up the much harder seat in South Carolina, with Annie Andrews defeating Senator Darline Graham. Democrats didn’t just win their target House seats, they flipped many that few thought competitive – such as North Carolina’s 9th District, where perennial Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda (who’d previously run in West Virginia) defeated Rep. Richard Hudson, Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. …
Call 2: Trump might claim the election was rigged, but he won’t be able to do much about it. We will have free-and-fair elections and a peaceful transition of power in Congress.
Before Tuesday, there was a considerable amount of speculation that Trump would attempt to rig the midterms: seizing ballot boxes, sending ICE into polling places, or refusing to seat newly elected members of Congress. My take was that Trump did not have the ability – or focus – to overturn the results. The checks on his authority, including state control of elections and skeptical courts, would prevent any serious effort to ignore the will of the voters. …

How a Logger From Maine Toppled a Giant of the Senate
Troy Jackson, a former Democratic state lawmaker, upset Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who had served the state for 30 years.
(NYT) “I will be thinking about generations of Mainers who worked in our woods, built our ships, kept our mills running, the people who built this state and deserve a government that works for them,” Mr. Jackson, 58, told a packed hotel ballroom in Portland shortly after midnight. “That is what I am going to fight for every damn day.”
Even amid the blue wave that swept Democrats into power across the country, Mr. Jackson’s triumph over Ms. Collins was notable, considering her seniority in the Senate and five previous statewide wins, versus his abbreviated campaign and limitations as a candidate. A fortuitous mix of personal narrative, message and timing powered him to a victory no one could have imagined just months ago.
Drawing on his working-class roots and populist record as a state senator, Mr. Jackson could empathize with voters’ frustrations and fears like few other congressional candidates.

Becerra Becomes California’s First Latino Governor in 150 Years
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Democrat Xavier Becerra won as California’s next governor, becoming the first Latino to lead the state in more than 150 years.
Becerra defeated Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host, with about 64% of votes and roughly 44% of ballots counted.
Becerra’s victory comes after a tumultuous primary race and will succeed Democrat Gavin Newsom as governor.

Navy admiral fired by Hegseth flips Mace’s South Carolina seat
(The Hill) The Democrat notched just under 50 percent of the vote, while Honeycutt trailed with just over 48 percent, with all votes tallied as of early Wednesday.
On the campaign trail, Lacore criticized Hegseth’s management of the Pentagon and painted him as the public face of the increasingly unpopular Iran war, which resonated with voters in a district President Trump won by 13 percentage points two years ago.

These Wins Could Mint a New Generation of Democratic Stars
Voters from South Carolina to Ohio to Texas have elevated a new class of Democrats who could not be more different from one another.
(NYT) They are ideologically diverse, including progressives intent on reshaping the party’s approach to Israel and health care and moderates who spent months persuading Republicans to join their cause. Some eschew the virality of the social media era, others are a product of it. There’s a pediatrician, a pastor, a Paralympian and a former Navy helicopter pilot.
They will also change the face of power. The nation is getting its first Black female governor as well as the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate, and the first Gen Z woman in Congress.
James Talarico — Texas – A state legislator and former middle-school teacher, James Talarico conquered hundreds of millions of dollars in Republican spending — including at least $158 million from Elon Musk — to become the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race in more than a generation. At 37, he will be the youngest member of the Senate once he is sworn in.
Abdul El-Sayed — Michigan Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, 42, will be the first Muslim to serve in the Senate. He is a physician who ran local health departments in Detroit, and became the party’s nominee after a bruising and expensive primary against the much-better-funded Representative Haley Stevens.
Annie Andrews — South Carolina Dr. Annie Andrews, a 46-year-old-pediatrician, began a long-shot campaign against the long-serving Senator Lindsey Graham back in May 2025. Her focus was on somebody who would never appear on the ballot: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mr. Trump’s controversial secretary of health and human services. Dr. Andrews vowed to impeach Mr. Kennedy and blamed the Trump administration for a 2025 measles outbreak that sickened 1,000 children in her state.
Josh Turek — Iowa … a two-time Paralympic gold medalist (in wheelchair basketball) who voted for George W. Bush. He campaigned hard against Mr. Trump’s tariffs as a “prairie populist” and attacked his opponent, Representative Ashley Hinson, over the war in Iran. …
Gina Hinojosa — Texas –For 12 years, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, has had an iron grip on power in Texas. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic state lawmaker nominated to challenge him, was seen as little more than a sacrificial lamb.
Then she started hammering Mr. Abbott over data centers, and he halted new permits for them. Ms. Hinojosa, who is 52, also turned a wrenching personal story — her decision, as a Catholic, to carry a high-risk pregnancy to term — into an emotional campaign ad. In another spot, she invoked something many in her party have avoided: pronouns. “I’m Gina Hinojosa,” she said. “My pronouns are Mom, Texan and, soon to be, governor.”

Peltola takes slight lead in Alaska Senate race
(The Hill) As of almost 11 a.m. EST Wednesday, Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with 48.2 percent to his 47.9 percent with 70 percent of the expected vote counted.
Alaska does not have counties, instead separating its votes by state house district. … Peltola now leads in a majority of state house districts at 24. The outstanding vote also suggests that the former congresswoman may have more room to grow her lead — districts where she is ahead are averaging 68.6 percent of the expected vote reported, while districts where Sullivan is ahead are averaging 73.2 percent of the expected vote reported.
…if neither candidate reaches 50 percent, Alaska will proceed with an instant runoff using its ranked choice voting system. The system will tally up voters’ second, third and fourth place votes, if they ranked all candidates, and add to the remaining candidates’ vote shares until one candidate has the majority. But that process cannot happen until all votes are counted and processed in Alaska. Given the rural and expansive nature of the state, ballots have 15 days after the election to arrive.

Democrats seize control of both House and Senate
Texas and other Republican strongholds fall
Voters angry at high prices, Iran war
Democratic Congress puts Trump’s agenda in jeopardy
(Reuters) – Democrats and Republicans squared up on Wednesday for what could be two years of deadlock in Washington, with the resurgent Democrats vowing to use their resounding midterm election victory to rein in President Donald Trump, who signaled he was ready to continue flexing the executive branch’s considerable powers.
… In Texas, the biggest Republican-led state before Tuesday, Democrats ended a decades-long losing streak in seismic fashion, winning their first Senate seat there since 1988 and ousting three-term Governor Greg Abbott.
Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since the Great Depression nearly a century ago, and in South Carolina, a state that Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024, Democrats turned aside his hand-picked Senate candidate.
Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remained uncalled as of Wednesday morning, leaving open the possibility that the Democrats’ majority could grow by another two seats to 56-44.

A Blue Tsunami Crashes Down on Donald Trump
A humbled Trump in the wake of the Democratic landslide has implications for US foreign policy.
(Bloomberg) A blue tsunami has come crashing down on Donald Trump. And with the stinging rebuke come expectations, abroad as well as at home, that a hitherto unbridled president can be restrained. Whether he will is another question, as is which version of Trump the world will now see after the US midterm elections: a slightly conciliatory president showing willingness to work with Democrats, or a defiant “Mr. Veto.” A weakened and humiliated Trump could react in a number of ways on the global stage that, true to his nature, remain highly unpredictable.

Democrats, Trump face off after elections as Washington heads for divided government
By Brad Heath, Jason Lange and David Morgan
Democrats seize control of both House and Senate
Texas and other Republican strongholds fall
Voters angry at high prices, Iran war
Democratic Congress puts Trump’s agenda in jeopardy
(Reuters) – Democrats and Republicans squared up on Wednesday for what could be two years of deadlock in Washington, with the resurgent Democrats vowing to use their resounding midterm election victory to rein in President Donald Trump, who signaled he was ready to continue flexing the executive branch’s considerable powers.
A wave of anger over Trump’s ​policies, particularly the US-Iran war’s role in pushing the cost of living higher, helped Democrats take the Senate, where they flipped seats in deeply Republican states for a majority of at least 54-44, and the House of Representatives, where they gained at ‌least 25 seats.
… Trump, meanwhile, posted an image on ​social media of one of his signature red “Make America Great Again” baseball caps with the usual slogan replaced with the word “VETO”, a reminder that Democrats will be limited in their ability to legislate without his support.
Top Senate Republican John Thune, a veteran lawmaker not generally regarded ​as a firebrand, signaled that his caucus was not yet ready to look to a future beyond Trump.
“Senate Republicans will not stand idly by as the far-left, socialist wing of the Democrat Party attempts to unwind everything ⁠we’ve done,” Thune, of South Dakota, said in a statement. “Thankfully, we still have President Trump in the White House, and we’ll work with him to stop the worst impulses of Democrat extremism.”

Schumer says Democrats’ priorities are reducing costs and ending corruption after taking control of Congress
Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has called the stunning midterm results that saw Democrats take control of Congress against “overwhelming odds”, a feat he described as “a generational re-make of the Senate map that has huge consequences for history”. …
“First, Americans want Washington to bring down the cost of living,” Schumer stressed. “Second, Americans want us to clean up corruption in government … and third they want us to check on Trump’s chaos at home and abroad.”

Hakeem Jeffries, on track to make House speaker history, sees ‘mandate for dramatic change’
(CNN) Jeffries is now on a clear path to be elected House speaker in January — only second to the vice president in the line of presidential succession — in a position that effectively hands him control of a newly resurgent Democratic party in President Donald Trump’s final two years in power.
… That gavel is all but a guarantee after Democrats’ stunning romp of the House GOP. With his massive majority, Jeffries may no longer need to win over the crop of incoming Democratic socialists decrying current leaders for failing to meet the moment, though that dynamic will still be a major feature of the speaker’s vote in January.
Once considered a political insurgent himself, Jeffries battles skepticism from the party’s activist wing over his more-establishment stance on issues like Medicare for All and Israel.
Jeffries, a deliberative former corporate lawyer, has also drawn private criticism from some in his party for being overly hesitant. But people close to him insist that he feels emboldened to have a decisive and aggressive approach to wielding the speaker’s gavel in the Trump era — pursuing significant confrontations with the administration and corporate America alike.

Trump Says in Interview That He Will Accept Election Results
In an interview with two Times reporters, President Trump blamed the G.O.P.’s losses on the fact that he was not on the ballot, and said he was willing to work with Democrats.

‘The people of America have spoken’: world leaders react to US midterm elections
World leaders have been reacting to the seismic results of the US midterm elections, with British prime minister Andy Burnham earlier saying he hopes the results will give the world an “opportunity” to focus on ending the Iran war and easing cost of living pressures.
In London, Mayor Sadiq Khan, who Trump has frequently insulted over the years, said on X: “Congratulations to Democrats on a huge victory last night. With a focus on hope, unity and supporting families with the cost of living – their campaign was a true rejection of the damaging and divisive politics of Donald Trump.”
In Iran, powerful parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad ‌Baqer Ghalibaf attributed Republican losses to Trump’s unresolved war against Tehran, which broke his campaign promise to not start new wars, sparked a global energy crisis and exacerbated the cost of living.

The Blame Game
After Midterm Drubbing, Trump and Republicans Start Pointing Fingers
While the president attributed sweeping losses to the fact that he was not on the ballot, others in his party dismissed his explanation and pinned blame squarely on him.
“I wasn’t on the ticket,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with The New York Times on Tuesday night before polls had closed in parts of the country. “And because I wasn’t on the ticket, we couldn’t get enough people out to vote.”
Almost as quickly, Republicans began to point their fingers back at the president.
They said their party’s loss of control of both the House and Senate, its worst midterm showing in decades, was the direct result of a series of choices the president had made in the year leading up to the election.

Vance Says Iran War Led to Democrats’ Sweep
Democrats flipped the House and Senate as part of a remarkable power shift in the midterm elections. Senator Chuck Schumer hailed a “generational remake” of the body’s majority.
Vice President JD Vance placed the blame for the Republicans’ wipeout in the midterm elections squarely on the war with Iran, and said supporters of the war would have to reckon with the fact that they may have surrendered control of Congress for years as a result.
Mr. Vance’s comments, in a social media post, were his first since voters across the country delivered a stinging rebuke to the Trump administration’s handling of the war and the economy by giving Democrats control of the House and Senate. In an interview on Tuesday night, President Trump told The New York Times that he did not regret starting the war with Iran and said it was important for the country and the world.