U.S. – Russia relations April 2024 -14 August 2025

Heather Cox Richardson August 8, 2025 (Friday)
(Letters from an American) During the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed he could stop Russia’s war on Ukraine with a single phone call. Instead, Matt Murphy and Ned Davies of the BBC report that Russian attacks on Ukraine have doubled since Trump took office. Today was the deadline the president had announced for Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in his illegal invasion of Ukraine or face further sanctions. Instead, Trump announced this afternoon that he intends to meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska.
Putin generally cannot travel outside Russia because he has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including the theft of Ukrainian children. And yet Trump is welcoming him to the United States of America.
This welcome gives Putin the huge gift of letting him touch down on U.S. soil after he invaded Ukraine in defiance of the policy established after World War II to prevent another such devastating war.
The plan revealed by the Bloomberg journalists  (US and Russia Plan Truce to Cement Putin’s Gains in Ukraine) is still vague, but it excludes Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies and is similar to the one Russia demanded in April 2025. That plan, in turn, rehashed almost entirely the plan Russian operatives presented to Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort, in exchange for helping Trump win the White House.

13 August
Avoiding Putin’s trap in Alaska
Is Trump prepared to play tough with Putin?
Steven Pifer
(Brookings) … Putin will seek to trap Trump into endorsing a position that incorporates the major elements of long-standing Russian demands. If Trump agrees, he will suffer unflattering comparisons to Neville Chamberlain, who agreed to surrender a large part of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany in 1938. While the Czechoslovakian government concluded it had no choice and accepted the territorial loss, the Ukrainians will say no. They will not embrace their own capitulation.
A different approach
Trump could take a different approach. He can adopt the counterproposal put forward over the weekend by Ukrainian and European officials, which has three main parts. First, an unconditional ceasefire as the basis for negotiations. Second, the principle that, if Ukraine withdraws from some regions, Russia withdraws from other regions. Third, an ironclad security guarantee for Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not launch a new war two or three years down the road.
Trump could combine this position with two threats to Putin if Russia did not quickly adopt a more accommodating bargaining approach. First, he could tell the Russian leader that the United States would prioritize arms sales to Europe intended ultimately for Ukraine’s military. Second, he could threaten to press the Europeans to agree to seize frozen Russian Central Bank assets to fund Ukraine’s war and reconstruction needs. Ultimately, what will change Putin’s position is recognition in Moscow that Russia cannot accomplish its objectives on the battlefield and will pay an enormous price for continuing to try.
Jeremy Kinsman: The Beginning of the End for Putin’s War?
(Policy) … Whatever the outcome in Anchorage, Trump’s unilateral decision to meet Putin already gives the Russian outcast multiple “wins”: a meeting on US soil; breaking the NATO taboo on receiving the invader of Ukraine; lifting Russia’s status to a level Putin would like to believe approximates Cold War days when the two nuclear superpowers met as peers; and meeting over Ukraine without the President of Ukraine, thereby breaking the tenet of “no discussion of Ukraine without Ukraine.”
Trump had reportedly hoped the meeting would enable him to pronounce a cease-fire, perhaps convincing the deciders of the Nobel Peace Prize to devolve to him its grand award.
Most civil wars and conflicts between states do end in ceasefires, once the evidence on the ground shows little prospect of a breakthrough, and when the endurance and enthusiasm of both publics, including their armies, is spent. …
What is the longer-term forecast?”
The world won’t return to its old “normal” after Trump. But the EU, UK, Canada, and others can work together, without the leadership of the US, to draw up new and effective lines of cooperation. Russia will eventually swallow Putin, and hopefully try again for democracy. Ukraine will thrive as an eventual member of the EU.
So, the Alaska Summit is a meeting, not an historic game-changing event. But it’s nonetheless a possible start on ending a war that never should have begun.
Trump floats ‘severe’ consequences if Putin meeting goes sideways
President Donald Trump spoke with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this morning in an hours-long virtual meeting ahead of Trump’s much-anticipated summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Though the White House has tempered expectations leading up to the confab, at stake is a potential ceasefire deal that could end the over three-year war in Ukraine.
WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING: Speaking at the Kennedy Center, Trump said the meeting with leaders this morning was a “very good call” that he rated a 10. He also said his plan has always been to speak with both Putin and Zelenskyy, and that he would call Zelenskyy after the summit on Friday.
On Putin: Trump said Putin could face “very severe consequences” if he decides Putin is still not serious about ending the war, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and Megan Messerly report. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV this morning that sanctions are a possibility, saying that Trump will “make it clear to President Putin that all options are on the table,” per Reuters.
Zelenskiy had an online meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and EU leaders; the EU leaders say territory not on the table, Kyiv needs security guarantees and believe that Trump is listening to warnings on Putin. Trump threatens ‘severe consequences’ if Putin blocks Ukraine peace
Trump meets Putin on Friday to discuss war in Ukraine
Trump praises call with Zelenskiy, European leaders
Macron says no territorial swap schemes on table
Europe and Kyiv feared decisions being made over their heads
Russia says its war aims remain unchanged
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Russia’s Vladimir Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine but also said on Wednesday that a meeting between them could swiftly be followed by a second that would include the leader of Ukraine.
Trump did not specify what the consequences could be, but he has warned of economic sanctions if his meeting with Putin in Alaska on Friday proves fruitless.

10-12 August
Vladimir Putin Could Be Laying a Trap
Donald Trump badly wants a deal to end the war in Ukraine. What is he willing to give up?
By Jonathan Lemire
(The Atlantic) Vladimir Putin has had a tough few months. His military’s much-feared summer offensive has made incremental gains in Ukraine but not nearly the advances he had hoped. His economy has sputtered. Donald Trump has grown fed up with Putin’s repeated defiance of his calls for a cease-fire and, for the first time, has targeted the Russian president with consistently harsh rhetoric. Last week, Trump slapped one of Russia’s major trading partners, India, with sanctions.
Putin needs to buy time to change the trajectory of the conflict. So the former KGB spymaster has given Trump something that the U.S. president has wanted for months: a one-on-one summit to discuss the end of the conflict. Trump leaped at the chance. But as the two men prepare to meet in Alaska on Friday, foreign-policy experts—and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—are warning that Trump could be walking into a trap that the Russian leader is setting on American soil.
The Trump-Putin summit: who wins?
with details still evolving every hour, the available info suggests Friday’s summit is shaping up as a win for Putin more than anyone else.
(International Intrigue) White House officials have flagged Ukraine’s Zelensky could join too, though the Kremlin is rejecting that until “certain conditions” are met. So rather than (say) the White House using a POTUS meeting as a carrot to bring parties together, Putin wants Friday to…
d) sideline Ukraine and its European allies
e) cast Ukraine’s self-defense as the obstacle to Trump’s peace dream, and so…
f) again avoid US sanctions, while maybe further eroding US support for Ukraine.
A Sidelined Zelensky Warns That Russia Will Try to Deceive the U.S.
Ukraine fears that the Kremlin will try to convince President Trump at U.S.-Russian talks in Alaska that Ukraine, not Russia, is the obstacle to peace.
(NYT) Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is determined to demonstrate that his country is not the obstacle to peace by emphasizing Kyiv’s willingness to accept an unconditional cease-fire, an idea that Russia has rejected. He has cautioned that Mr. Putin will try to drive a wedge between the United States, Ukraine and its European allies by putting forth demands that the Kremlin knows Ukraine cannot accept and then portraying Mr. Zelensky as the barrier to a deal.

8-9 August
Max Boot: Trump is letting Putin manipulate him, again
The president’s desperation to end the Ukraine war might lead to another Munich moment with Russia.
President Donald Trump’s unhealthy obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize has driven him to make a series of rash decisions in pursuit of ending the war in Ukraine. The latest example is the scheduling of a premature summit with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Alaska — an object lesson in how not to do diplomacy.
Despite Putin’s continuing air and ground assaults on Ukraine, Trump is rewarding him with a presidential summit — and on U.S. soil no less. This turnaround appears to have been a product of the U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff’s meeting with Putin on Wednesday, where Putin reportedly proposed that Kyiv give up all of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in eastern Ukraine in return for a ceasefire. With the battle lines frozen in place, the Wall Street Journal reports, a final end to the war would supposedly be negotiated later. In the real world, the odds of that happening are remote. The more likely scenario would be that Russia would violate the ceasefire, as it has done repeatedly in Ukraine in years past.
‘Erratic’ Trump already handed Putin a ‘great gift’ before Alaska meeting: ex-ambassador
Donald Trump’s agreement to meet with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska next week is the culmination of a series of wins the president is handing the Russian strongman, claimed former Ambassador Michael McFaul.
(Raw Story) As for Putin he added, “I’ve watched him. ‘I’ve been in the room with him, he is good at this and President Trump better prepare. He better not just wing it and think that it’s all going to work out, because it will not. This, he needs to take very seriously and he’s already in the hole. I want to emphasize: he’s already in the hole, he already has given Putin this great gift of inviting him to the United States of America and standing next to him, so he better be thinking hard about what we get in return.”
Ukraine war briefing: Trump flags ‘swapping of territories’ as he and Putin set a date for Alaska talks
US president claims exchanges will be ‘to the betterment of both’ before announcing talks with Putin for Friday. What we know on day 1,263
(The Guardian) Donald Trump has said any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would involve territory swaps, as he named a date and location for talks with Vladimir Putin. The US president said: “But we’re gonna get some [territory] back. We’re gonna get some switched. There’ll be some swapping of territories, to the betterment of both.” He did not provide further details. Kyiv did not immediately comment on the talks or the possibility of territorial exchanges.
Ukraine will not give up land, Zelenskyy warns ahead of Trump-Putin meeting
US president said end to war will involve ‘some swapping of territories’ before announcing meeting
US and Russia Plan Truce to Cement Putin’s Gains in Ukraine
(Bloomberg) Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter.
US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, the people said.
Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede its entire eastern Donbas area to Russia as well as Crimea, which his forces illegally annexed in 2014. That would require Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, handing Russia a victory that its army couldn’t achieve militarily since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

5-6 August
With Sanctions Looming, Trump’s Envoy to Russia Meets With Putin
The envoy, Steve Witkoff, is making his fifth visit this year. He has managed to secure some prisoner exchanges but made no clear progress so far on ending the war in Ukraine.
Steve Witkoff, an envoy for President Trump, met with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for the fifth time this year on Wednesday, holding talks that Mr. Trump has described as pivotal in determining whether the United States goes ahead with new sanctions against Russia.
While Mr. Trump initially appeared to give Mr. Putin the benefit of the doubt and blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine for dragging out the three-year war, he has increasingly soured on Mr. Putin in his public comments lately. Mr. Putin, on the other hand, has sought to placate and engage with Mr. Trump without showing any willingness to compromise on his far-reaching goals in his war against Ukraine.
Mr. Trump said on July 28 that he would give Moscow 10 to 12 days to end the conflict or face a new round of financial penalties — a deadline that expires soon.
Russia’s Rulers Are In For a Nasty Shock
By Mikhail Zygar, Russian journalist and author of the newsletter The Last Pioneer.
(NYT Opinion) President Trump has not scared the Russian elite. Last week he declared himself “disappointed” with Vladimir Putin and imposed a shorter deadline — expiring this Friday — for an end to the war in Ukraine, threatening severe economic punishment if it was missed. In Moscow no one took it seriously. After weathering more than three years of sanctions, the Kremlin believes it can handle anything thrown at it — that’s if Mr. Trump even follows through, which many in Moscow doubt.
But there’s a deeper reason for the dismissive response. Mr. Putin has, according to Kremlin insiders I talked to, concluded that negotiating with the United States makes no sense and that compromise is pointless. Hostility, not friendship, is the policy. The imminent visit to Moscow of America’s envoy for peace missions, Steve Witkoff, won’t change that. Mr. Trump might have soured on Mr. Putin, but Russia’s president couldn’t care less.
The situation in Russia is far from stable. The country has been experiencing a near-continuous aviation crisis this summer as flights have been routinely disrupted by drone attacks. Major businesses are struggling under crushingly high interest rates. The Central Bank of Russia is forecasting scant economic growth, investment levels are low, and the country is expecting a poor harvest. All is not well.
And yet Russia’s rulers cling to the belief that nothing can harm them. After all, they reason, the country has spent the past three years learning how to live in isolation. It’s possible they’re right about Mr. Trump and that his bark is worse than his bite. But drunk on propaganda, oblivious to the risks ahead, they may soon find they are in for a nasty shock.

15 July
President Donald Trump is finally taking the fight to Vladimir Putin. Sort of. For now.
(The Atlantic) Trump’s deference to Russia’s authoritarian leader has been one of the most enduring geopolitical subplots of the past decade. But his frustration with Putin has grown. Last week, the president said the United States was taking “a lot of bullshit” from Putin. Today, he authorized a significant shipment of U.S. defensive weapons to Ukraine via NATO and threatened Russia with new tariffs if the war does not end in 50 days.
Trump came into office believing that he could deliver a lasting truce between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours, banking on his relationship with Putin, which he considered good. For months, he largely sided with Moscow in its war against Ukraine, absolving Russia for having started the conflict and threatening to abandon Kyiv as it mounted a desperate defense. He upbraided Zelensky in the Oval Office in February and briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine. He believed that he could, in addition to working with his Russian counterpart to end the war, reset relations and forge new economic ties between the two countries. He even envisioned a grand summit to announce a peace deal.
But Putin rejected repeated American calls to stop his attacks. Russia’s talks with Trump’s emissary, Steve Witkoff, went nowhere. Trump pulled back diplomatic efforts. In recent weeks, Trump has grown angrier with Putin and ended a brief pause by the Pentagon in sending weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky, meanwhile, has worked on repairing his relationship with Trump and agreed to a U.S. cease-fire proposal. In Trump’s own words, Putin began “tapping him along” by spurning that same deal while unleashing some of the biggest bombardments of the war. Trump and Putin have spoken a half dozen times in the past six months, and Trump has grown steadily more frustrated, the four people told me. He told advisers this spring that he was beginning to think Putin didn’t want the war to end, an assessment that U.S. intelligence agencies reached more than a year ago.

14 July
Playbook PM: Trump’s ‘major’ move on Russia
(Politico) Trump is continuing to turn the screws on Putin — a far cry from the state of things following the Oval Office smackdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy months ago. But he’s only willing to go so far at this point. Asked how he would respond if Putin escalates, Trump said, “Don’t ask me a question like that.” Trump also described how he tells first lady Melania Trump about his “nice” phone calls with Putin, only for Melania to respond, “Really? Another city just got hit.”

In his words: Trump’s rhetoric about Zelenskyy and Putin has evolved
(AP) U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly said during his campaign that, if elected to a second term, he would be able to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours.” But since his Jan. 20 inauguration, the road to a peace deal has been fraught with changing dynamics between the U.S. leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s rhetoric toward both Zelenskyy and Putin has evolved since the beginning of the year. On Monday, Trump said he’ll punish Russia with tariffs if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days, the latest example of his growing frustration with Putin.
At the outset of his second term, Trump was conciliatory toward Putin, for whom he has long shown admiration. But in recent days the Republican leader has expressed increasing exasperation with Putin, criticizing the Russian leader for his unbudging stance on U.S-led peace efforts and for prolonging the war.

10 July
Did Trump Really Just Break Up with Putin?
It’s never easy to tell which flip or flop the flip-flopper in the White House means.
By Susan B. Glasser
(The New Yorker) Donald Trump finally called “bullshit” on Vladimir Putin this week, though nobody seems to quite know what it means. One explanation, and perhaps the best one, is that Trump, belatedly, recognized what has long been apparent to the rest of us: that Putin has been playing him, pretending to talk peace while escalating Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine. On Monday, Trump announced that he was “not happy with President Putin at all” and overruled his own Pentagon to re-start arms shipments to Ukraine. A day later, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump said bluntly, “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin,” observing that when the two talk—as they have frequently in recent months—he’s “very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
Soon enough, the Wall Street Journal editorial board was praising Trump’s “pivot on Mr. Putin.” One could practically hear the sighs of relief in European capitals. In Kyiv, Ukrainian officials welcomed the news, even if they were understandably wary. On Capitol Hill, Republicans seized the moment to announce that they now expected to call a vote as soon as this month on bipartisan legislation—co-sponsored by more than eighty senators—that would allow Trump to impose a crippling tariff of up to five hundred per cent on countries that purchase Russian oil, gas, or uranium. …

4 July
Ukraine accuses Putin of humiliating Trump with devastating attack on Kyiv
Russia launches record number of drones and ballistic missiles in seven-hour assault shortly after its leader spoke to US president

25 June
Trump meets with Zelenskyy and says higher NATO defense spending may deter future Russian aggression
(AP) — President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit Wednesday and suggested that increased spending by the trans-Atlantic alliance could help prevent future Russian aggression against its neighbors.
“Europe stepping up to take more responsibility for security will help prevent future disasters like the horrible situation with Russia and Ukraine,” Trump said at the summit-ending news conference shortly after seeing Zelenskyy. “And hopefully we’re going to get that solved.”
Trump also reiterated his belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end the war in Ukraine that began with Moscow’s invasion in February 2022.

25-27 May
Trump’s frustration with Putin boils over with no Ukraine peace deal in sight
The U.S. president lashed out at the Kremlin on Tuesday as the White House continued to consider increasing sanctions against Russia.

25 May
Trump warns attempts to conquer all of Ukraine will lead to ‘downfall’ of Russia
US president criticises Putin and Zelenskyy after the Ukrainian leader condemned his ‘silence’ over attack
(The Guardian) “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” Trump wrote in a social media post, adding: “I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”
Trump silence as Russia steps up attacks on Ukraine highlights diplomatic failure
Earlier on Sunday the US president told reporters that was he was “very surprised” that his Russian counterpart had intensified the bombardment of Ukrainian cities despite the US president’s efforts to broker a ceasefire.
Pressed by a reporter to say if he was now seriously considering “putting more sanctions on Russia”, Trump replied: “Absolutely. He’s killing a lot of people. What the hell happened to him?”
Trump Rebukes Putin, Calling Escalation of Attacks ‘Absolutely Crazy’
(NYT) “He’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all,” President Trump said of his Russian counterpart.

19 May
Trump Hands Putin a Win With Retreat From Ukraine Peace Talks
(Bloomberg AI summary) President Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin revealed that Trump is no longer pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine and is not threatening new sanctions on Russia.
European leaders are disappointed and fear that Trump is disengaging from diplomatic efforts to end the war, leaving Ukraine and its allies on their own.
Trump’s shift in position contradicts his previous claims to have a plan to quickly broker a deal to end the war, and his decision to step back has given Putin more time and opportunities to pursue his goals….
Eleven days ago, European leaders took heart when President Donald Trump called for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened new sanctions on Russia. A phone call with Vladimir Putin on Monday revealed those hopes were misplaced.
After two hours on the phone with Putin, Trump wrote a social media post saying Ukraine and Russia would “immediately start negotiations” toward a ceasefire — but apparently without the US. There was no sanctions threat, no demand for a time-line, and no pressure on the Russian leader.
Trump followed the Putin call by reaching out to European leaders, but already several governments were airing their disappointment. After months of failing to move Putin closer to peace, they fear Trump is pulling the plug on his efforts to end the war, leaving Ukraine and its allies on their own.
… In another unexpected move, Trump also said the Vatican would be willing to host peace negotiations. Asked at the White House if the newly elevated Pope Leo XIV can help bring peace to Ukraine, Trump said: “I do.” He had the same answer when asked if he believes Putin wants peace.
Trump’s remark that the US would essentially bow out and leave Russia and Ukraine to negotiate appeared to contradict a a central tenet of his foreign policy pitch to voters during the 2024 presidential campaign — that he had a plan to quickly broker a deal to end the war once he returned to office.
Putin-Trump Call Fails to Yield Breakthrough on Ukraine
(NYT) President Trump backed away from threats intended to press Russia for a cease-fire in Ukraine, instead focusing on the possibility of future economic cooperation with Moscow after phone calls with the leaders of both warring nations. Mr. Trump emphasized that Russia and Ukraine negotiate directly, a functional endorsement of the position of Russia’s president, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has resisted an immediate pause in fighting. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, insisted that his country would never yield to Russian ultimatums.

30 March
Trump says he’s ‘very angry’ and ‘pissed off’ at Putin during an NBC News interview
Trump said in an early-morning phone call that if he believes Russia is at fault for a ceasefire not being reached with Ukraine, he may impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

26 March
How Trump’s policies have helped Russia and furthered Putin’s goals
Months into the new administration, a slew of policy changes have helped Russia, including defunding U.S. soft power, standing down cyber efforts and splitting with NATO allies.
Trump’s talk of taking over the Panama Canal, making Canada the 51st state and getting Greenland “one way or another” appears to be rupturing the post-World War II order in favor of a world without constraints on territorial expansion by force — and one closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s view.
Trump “is ideologically closer to Putin than, say, to [French President Emmanuel] Macron,” Vladislav Surkov, a former deputy premier who helped neuter Russia’s democracy and engineer the invasions of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, told French magazine L’Express.
Peace negotiations, he said, will deliver Russia’s goal: Ukraine’s defeat through either war or diplomacy, and its partition “into natural parts.” The Russian world, he continued, has no borders and “we will expand in all directions, as God wills, and as far as our resources allow.”
Trump’s policy is “beneficial to Russia,” analyst Mikhail Yemelyanov wrote in the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “Trump is ready to make serious concessions to Russia without demanding reciprocal steps.” The multipolar world “has already arrived. And Trump is already living in it,” he added.

18-26 March
Russia Is Winning Concessions and Buying Time in Cease-fire Talks
Moscow’s demands are slowing the process and giving it the advantage in talks with a deal-hungry United States, experts said.
(NYT) Ukraine thought it had a deal in place to suspend the fighting in the Black Sea immediately. Russia said economic sanctions would need to be lifted first. And the United States didn’t address the question of timing at all, merely repeating President Trump’s broad demand that the killing stop.
The conflicting statements released this week after midlevel cease-fire negotiations in Saudi Arabia were the latest sign of a chaotic process in which, analysts and experts said, the Kremlin appears to be playing for time and getting the upper hand.
March 23-25, 2025, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Outcomes of the United States and Russia Expert Groups On the Black Sea
The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.
The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
The United States and Russia agreed to develop measures for implementing President Trump’s and President Putin’s agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine.
The United States and Russia welcome the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements.
The United States and Russia will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace.
The United States reiterated President Donald J. Trump’s imperative that the killing on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict must stop, as the necessary step toward achieving an enduring peace settlement. To that end, the United States will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides to achieve a peaceful resolution, in line with the agreements made in Riyadh.
US announces Black Sea deal with Russia and Ukraine
The region’s shipping safety has vexed the international community amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended shipments of grain through the Black Sea, ratcheting up global fears about food shortages.
(Politico) The White House announced Tuesday that it had reached separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine to allow for “safe navigation” in the Black Sea, eliminating a major roadblock for peace talks between the two countries.
The Trump administration, in two statements, said that technical-level talks between U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, resulted in agreements to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”
22 March
Owen Matthews: Putin has played Trump like a fiddle
Trump sees talks as a path towards peace. Putin sees talks as a path towards victory. Just as his invasion was diplomacy by other means, so his peace overtures are war by other means.
(The Spectator) Trump claimed that he had had a ‘very good and productive’ conversation with Putin. In reality, Putin played Trump like a fiddle. The two men agreed to form a contact group that would meet very soon to discuss detailed proposals at a Middle Eastern location. Another home run for Putin. He gets to bury negotiations in committee for months, while adhering to every appearance of constructive engagement.
Thorny issues remain, and the Kremlin readout made no bones about the fact that Putin put his hard-line demands on the table. The Kremlin demanded ‘the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence to Kyiv’ during any full ceasefire period – plus a halt to Ukraine’s mobilisation of new recruits. Putin also repeated his demand for a commitment to keeping Kyiv out of Nato, the ‘demilitarisation’ of Ukraine in the form of restrictions on its armed forces and and a recognition of Russia’s control over the five regions that Moscow annexed since 2014.
These are hard conditions for Trump to swallow. But here again Putin’s strategic nous came into play. The Kremlin indicated that it was in strong agreement that Iran should never be allowed the wherewithal to strike Israel. Possible joint projects to exploit the resources of the Arctic have been discussed – as well as as-yet undefined joint business opportunities for US companies in Russia. By pulling back the focus to encompass a global picture, impresario Putin sought to cast Ukraine as a mere detail in a wide panoply of potential geopolitical collaboration.

18 March
Trump fails to get Putin to stop the shooting
Jamie Dettmer, opinion editor, Politico Europe.
Russia insists on terms to end the war that spell the end of democratic Ukraine, and has followed up the Trump call with an assault on Kyiv.
(Politico Eu) “Plan A is: Get the shooting to stop,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday, noting the U.S. administration’s main goal is to secure a quick ceasefire before moving on to broader talks about a settlement to permanently end Russia’s war on Ukraine.
But that clearly isn’t what Russian President Vladimir Putin has in mind, as he demonstrated by withholding his agreement to a full 30-day ceasefire in his 90-minute phone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. Shortly after the call, Russia launched a drone assault over Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
The call heard around the world
(Politico Nightly) There remains no indication that Putin dropped or changed his increasingly steep demands for ending the war outright, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a news conference today that he had “skepticism” about the deal, but that “if there is a partial ceasefire, this is a positive result.” Meanwhile, much of Europe is unconvinced of Trump’s success and hopes to bring Ukraine into a closer partnership with them; multiple countries in Northern Europe are pushing the EU to speed up the process of making Ukraine a full member of the bloc.
Putin, in call with Trump, agrees to partial ceasefire in Ukraine
The deal, if Ukraine agrees, would spare energy infrastructure from attacks.
It’s unclear if Putin’s steep conditions for agreeing to a broader ceasefire — including a pausing U.S. defense aid to Ukraine, barring Ukraine from future NATO membership and requiring Ukraine to hold new presidential elections — will be too onerous for Zekenskyy to accept.
(Politico) Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a partial 30-day ceasefire of attacks on energy infrastructure with Ukraine during a lengthy phone call Tuesday with President Donald Trump.
The White House celebrated the news but it fell short of the full 30-day pause that Ukraine had agreed to, which could complicate efforts to speed negotiations for a full end to the war.
According to a readout from the White House, Russia “will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire,” and additional negotiations are being planned on the implementation of “a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.”
… Trump has yet to publicly pressure Putin the way he has Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both Trump and Putin, in their respective readouts, expressed a desire for normalizing relations and working together in other areas.
… In the run-up to his call with Putin, Trump made clear that his focus, to a large extent, was already on determining how much of Ukraine’s territory Russia will get to keep under a pact to end the fighting.
Putin Wants All Arms to Ukraine Halted for Trump Truce
(Bloomberg) Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by US counterpart Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The two leaders began a phone call at 10 a.m. in Washington

17 March
Trump and Putin to discuss power plants, land in talks to end Ukraine war
“I think we’ll be able to do it,” Trump says of Ukraine peace
Trump to speak with Putin on Tuesday on ceasefire proposal
Ukraine backs 30-day ceasefire proposal, says Putin prolonging war
Russia demands Ukraine’s neutrality, exclusion from NATO
Europe, UK ready to send peacekeepers if ceasefire agreed
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said he would speak to Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tuesday morning about ending the Ukraine war, with territorial concessions by Kyiv and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant likely to feature prominently in the talks.

13 March
Why Putin will seek to sink Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire plan
Former Kremlin diplomat trashes idea that Russian leader will sign up to U.S.-brokered truce in Ukraine.
(Politico Eu) The Russian leader won’t see it as in his interest to accept and he will seek to bog down discussions by raising a never-ending series of modifications in order to sink it, said Boris Bondarev, who worked for the Russian permanent mission to the United Nations Office in Geneva until he resigned in opposition to Putin’s war on Ukraine.
Trump has warned Moscow against stalling on the Ukraine ceasefire and on Wednesday threatened Russia with significant financial consequences if it fails to sign on to the agreement, brokered during negotiations earlier this week between American and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.
Overall, Putin is likely to reckon that “Trump is much more concerned about a peace deal than about Ukraine,” Bondarev added.
Trump prides himself on his skill to strike deals, and he attacked Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy late last month when he viewed him as an obstacle to a peace settlement. …
Ukrainian officials hope now that Putin will become the target of Trump’s wrath. But Bondarev warned that Putin will seek to play Trump and to deflect the U.S. leader’s anger back onto Zelenskyy.
12 March
What leverage does Trump have over Putin in Ukraine negotiations?
Peter Beaumont
The Russian president remains unwavering in his demands, making wider sanctions and tariffs ineffective
(The Guardian) Ukraine’s agreement to support a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its war against Russia’s invasion has focused attention on what Moscow may or may not agree to, and what pressure can be brought to bear on Vladimir Putin by the Trump administration.
While the question has frequently been asked over the last few years as to what leverage Putin might have over Trump, the question here is what leverage Trump might have to persuade Putin.
On Wednesday the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the US expected to have contact with Russia later in the day, suggesting Washington hoped for a “positive answer”.
For its part, Moscow has said it needs to be briefed by Washington before replying, with the Kremlin press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, cautioning media against “getting ahead” of themselves, while suggesting Putin and Trump could speak in person.
It is in the economic sphere, however, that Russia remains most vulnerable. While the cost of war and international sanctions have not collapsed the economy in the way some suggested it might, high interest rates and low growth are slowly crippling Russia.
As an incentive, the US could offer an end to its banking sanctions and its prohibition on access to western technology, bearing in mind many non-US sanctions are likely to remain in place from countries allied with Ukraine.
Beyond that, issues become more complicated. Putin’s long-term demands have not shifted: the demilitarisation of Ukraine, a commitment that Ukraine will not join Nato in the future, and his desire to hold on to annexed territory – not least the Crimean peninsula.
None of which are likely to fly with Ukraine’s European allies.

8 March
Russia launches devastating attack on Ukraine after Trump’s defence of Putin
Latest attacks came hours after Donald Trump said Vladimir Putin was ‘doing what anybody would do’
Russia’s relentless bombardment of Ukrainian cities has intensified after a torrid week in which Trump has pulled the plug on intelligence sharing with Ukraine and halted the supply of US weapons.
These hostile moves mean the alarm system that warns Ukrainian civilians of incoming enemy missiles is less effective. Asked if Putin was taking advantage of US aid pauses, Trump on Friday acknowledged Ukraine was experiencing a “tremendous pounding”.
He suggested, however, that “anyone in Putin’s position” would do the same. Before a meeting on Tuesday between US and Ukrainian representatives in Saudi Arabia, Trump said he was “finding it easier” to deal with Moscow than with Kyiv.

1-2 March
Russia celebrates US foreign policy that now ‘coincides’ with Moscow’s worldview
Moscow hopes to take advantage of a growing rift between the U.S. and Ukraine, and Europe more broadly.
(Politico Eu) The Kremlin on Sunday cheered the shift in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, saying the American view now “largely coincides” with Russia’s take on geopolitics.
Trump has upended U.S. policy on Ukraine in recent weeks and sought a more conciliatory approach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, echoing Moscow’s talking points and recently accusing Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy of obstructing efforts to resolve the conflict started by Putin’s unprovoked invasion.
“The new [U.S.] administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations. This largely coincides with our vision,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday in a video published on Telegram.

24 February
Trump’s Bargain With Putin Is ‘Shameful’
By David French and Kori Schake
Turning our back on Ukraine would only weaken America.
(NYT) The Trump administration may be considering negotiating a peace deal with Russia that would end the war in Ukraine. “No American president in the last 80 years and probably 100 years before that would have made this bargain,” Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, tells the Opinion columnist David French.

18 February
Moscow’s media gloats over US-Russia talks
Preparing for possible Ukrainian peace negotiations is being portrayed in the Russian media almost as secondary in the bigger picture of Putin and Trump coming together to decide the shape of a new multipolar world order.
(Politico Eu) Talks in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials, led by each country’s foreign ministers, lasted more than four hours. It was the first high-level, face-to-face contact between American and Russian delegations since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
And as far as Moscow’s state-directed media commentators were concerned, it was a big win for the Russian president.
U.S. and Russia Pursue Partnership in a Head-Spinning Shift in Relations
The two sides met in Saudi Arabia for their most extensive discussions in years …agreeing to work together on ending the Ukraine war, financial investment and re-establishing normal relations. The meeting between senior officials from both countries was a striking display of bonhomie after three years of American efforts to isolate Moscow for its 2022 invasion.
(NYT) After more than four hours of talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both sides had agreed to work on a peace settlement for Ukraine as well as to explore “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians,” both geopolitically and economically.

12-13 February
In phone call with Putin, Trump abruptly ends U.S. efforts to isolate Russia
(AP) — By saying Ukraine’s NATO membership is “impractical” and the return of Russian-occupied territories to Kyiv is “illusionary,” the Trump administration is giving its blessing to key items on President Vladimir Putin’s wish list — even before a potential settlement of the conflict.
Rarely was a policy change between Moscow and Washington so swift and drastic than President Donald Trump’s phone call with Putin, abruptly ending a three-year, U.S.-led effort to isolate the Russian leader over Ukraine.
‘What Putin had been waiting for’: Moscow buoyant after call with Trump
Pjotr Sauer
Russian president will feel momentum has shifted in his favour and that US may help him fulfil Ukraine objectives
(The Guardian) Viewed as a whole, the rapidly unfolding events will probably be seen in Moscow as the culmination of Putin’s months-long diplomatic overtures to Trump, during which he lauded the president’s braveness and intelligence and echoed some of his favourite narratives, including unfounded claims that the 2020 US election was stolen from Trump.
“Now, Putin’s main focus is Trump – everyone else is irrelevant,” the foreign policy source said. “His next move is to secure a closed-door meeting with Trump, where he can further press his case,” the source added, saying they believed the two leaders could soon meet for a summit in Saudi Arabia.
Trump and Putin Agree to Ukraine Talks in US Policy Reversal
Trump says they’ll meet soon, probably in Saudi Arabia
Trump’s approach to the war represents sharp break with Biden
(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump agreed in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, sweeping aside three years of US policy and blindsiding European allies who feared the more conciliatory American stance amounted to a giveaway to the Russian leader.
Trump’s Ukraine Deal Looks Great — for Putin
Details to come, but in public it’s a jackpot for Putin — and the US
By Marc Champion, Bloomberg Opinion columnist

8 January
Trump Asked When He Will Talk With Putin, Says War ‘Would Have Never Happened’ If He Were In Office (YouTube)
During a press briefing at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, President-elect Trump spoke about when he hopes to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded Ukraine, to discuss the Russo-Ukraine War.

2024

20 December
Trump-Putin relations enter a new chapter and the world is at stake
Putin wants a sit-down with Trump as equals in which they divide the world into spheres of influence.
By Robyn Dixon, Catherine Belton and Francesca Ebel
(WaPo) Two self-proclaimed geopolitical alpha male leaders will be squaring off next year.
In one corner will be President Donald Trump, hungry for a Ukraine peace deal that would make him look like a global peacemaker. In the other, Russian President Vladimir Putin, an astute, manipulative and vehemently anti-American autocrat who hopes to entice Trump into creating a transactional new world order without rules or human rights.
Putin is seeking a grand bargain on European security that would leave Ukraine at the Kremlin’s mercy, weaken NATO and cement Russia’s place as a global power.
Ahead of any talks, the Kremlin is carefully assessing Trump’s messaging, ambitions and vulnerabilities, while remaining wary of his unpredictability. Trump’s weaknesses, according to Russian analysts, include geopolitical naivety, a short attention span and a propensity to rely on gut not brain.
“Trump deliberately keeps silent, I think, because he doesn’t know,” said Konstantin Remchukov, editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “We saw his campaign. He’s not a profound thinker on geopolitical stuff.”

21 November
In raising nuclear threat, Putin bets Trump is willing to back down on Ukraine
Mark MacKinnon
Vladimir Putin has escalated Russia’s hybrid war against the West again and again over the past decade, betting each time that the United States, in particular, will back down before he does.
(Globe & Mail) Now Mr. Putin is upping the ante like never before, challenging Washington and its allies with a blunt question: Are they willing to risk a nuclear war over the fate of Ukraine?
The long-ruling Kremlin boss is betting that the answer will be no, particularly once U.S. president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.

19 November
Putin Sees America Hurtling to Disaster, With Trump at the Wheel
By Mikhail Zygar, a Russian journalist and the author of the newsletter The Last Pioneer.
(NYT) The American election results were received with enthusiasm in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin, offering his congratulations, seemed genuinely pleased. But it’s not because Donald Trump is seen as a pro-Russian politician or even one of their own — those illusions faded long ago. Nor is it the prospect of an advantageous peace deal in Ukraine, ruthlessly brokered by Mr. Trump. The first reported call between the two leaders, which the Kremlin denies took place, suggests that the incoming administration will be no pushover.
Instead, the excitement comes from something else. It’s that to many in the Kremlin, a Trump presidency might bring about the collapse of the American state.
The idea that the United States is entering the final stage of its history has been kicking around Russia for some time. For years, it was confined to fringe voices. But since around 2020, figures from the Kremlin have been making the argument, too.

Heather Cox Richardson November 11, 2024
… Maxim Trudolyubov of the Wilson Center, a nonpartisan foreign affairs think tank, suggested Friday that Putin’s long-term goal of weakening the U.S. has made him more interested in dividing Americans than in any one candidate. Kremlin Was Hoping for Division in America, Not Victory for One Candidate
Indeed, rather than backing Trump wholeheartedly, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been undercutting him. He did not comment on Trump’s election until Thursday, when he said that the power of liberal democracies over world affairs is “irrevocably disappearing.” Although Ellen Nakashima, John Hudson, and Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post reported that Trump and Putin had spoken on Thursday, Putin denied such a call as “pure fiction.”
Exacerbating America’s internal divisions and demonstrating dominance over both the U.S. and Trump might explain why after Trump became president-elect, laughing Russian media figures showed viewers nude pictures of Trump’s third wife, Melania, taken during her modeling career.
In an interview, Putin’s presidential aide Nikolay Patrushev said today: “To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.” Meanwhile, U.S. and Ukrainian officials report that Russia has massed 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean soldiers, to reclaim territory in the Kursk region of Russia taken this year by Ukrainian forces.
Kremlin rejects reports of a conversation last week between Putin and Trump
(AP) The Kremlin on Monday rejected reports that President Vladimir Putin spoke last week with President-elect Donald Trump about the war in Ukraine, and a spokesman for Trump refused to comment on what he called his “private calls” with world leaders.
The Washington Post first reported on Sunday, citing anonymous sources, that the two spoke on Thursday, with Trump advising Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and cited the sizable U.S. military presence in Europe.
In a conference call Monday with journalists, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said “there was no conversation” and the report was “completely untrue, it is pure fiction.”

7 November
Putin congratulates Trump on his election victory in his first public comments on the US vote
(AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory in his first public comment on the U.S. vote, and he praised the president-elect’s courage during the July assassination attempt.
… Putin also said that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”

4 September
Right-wing influencers were duped to work for covert Russian influence operation, US says
(AP) — They have millions of followers online. They have been major players in right-wing political discourse since Donald Trump was president. And they worked unknowingly for a company that was a front for a Russian influence operation, U.S. prosecutors say.
An indictment filed Wednesday alleges a media company linked to six conservative influencers — including well-known personalities Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson — was secretly funded by Russian state media employees to churn out English-language videos that were “often consistent” with the Kremlin’s “interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions in order to weaken U.S. opposition” to Russian interests, like its war in Ukraine.
In addition to marking the third straight presidential election in which U.S. authorities have unveiled politically charged details about Russia’s attempted interference in U.S. politics, an indictment indicates how Moscow may be attempting to capitalize on the skyrocketing popularity of right-wing podcasters, livestreamers and other content creators who have found successful careers on social media in the years since Trump was in office.
The U.S. Justice Department doesn’t allege any wrongdoing by the influencers, some of whom it says were given false information about the source of the company’s funding. Instead, it accuses two employees of RT, a Russian state media company, of funneling nearly $10 million to a Tennessee-based content creation company for Russia-friendly content.
13 September 2022
US: Russia spent $300M to covertly influence world politics

1-3 August

Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich
(WSJ) The effort to bring home The Wall Street Journal reporter and others unfolded on three continents, involving spy agencies, billionaires, political power players and his fiercest advocate—his mother

Long Johns, Forensics and a Bound Russian Killer: Inside the Big Prisoner Swap
The complex choreography caught some prisoners being freed in their robes and slippers, unaware of their fates, and required forensic experts to make positive identifications.
(NYT) This account of the tense hours surrounding the exchange — the biggest between Moscow and the West since the Cold War — is based on new details revealed by Western government officials involved in the process, and on early testimony from the Russian political prisoners released as part of the deal.
The swap [involved]…a complex seven-country deal that required intricate planning and timing. The successful transfer highlighted the ability of some of the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies to cooperate on a distinct operation of shared interest, even as Russia and the West engage in a tense standoff over the war in Ukraine.
… Last month, C.I.A. officers met with F.S.B. counterparts in Turkey to agree on the final terms of the swap, and also to plan the dizzying logistics for how it could actually be carried out on the tarmac in Ankara.
But even in the final hours, the Western officials said, the Americans and Germans worried that something could go wrong — for example, that Russia might not deliver the agreed-upon roster of prisoners or swap in look-alikes.
US and Russia complete biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history, freeing Gershkovich and Whelan
(AP) — The United States and Russia completed their biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history on Thursday, with Moscow releasing journalist Evan Gershkovich and fellow American Paul Whelan, along with dissidents including Vladimir Kara-Murza, in a multinational deal that set two dozen people free.
The trade unfolded despite relations between Washington and Moscow being at their lowest point since the Cold War . Negotiators in backchannel talks at one point explored an exchange involving Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny but after his death in February ultimately stitched together a 24-person deal that required significant concessions from European allies, including the release of a Russian assassin, and secured freedom for a cluster of journalists, suspected spies, political prisoners and others.
Evan Gershkovich release: Biden and Harris greet Americans freed after prisoner swap
Emotional scenes at Andrews air force base as Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva step onto American soil
How Evan Gershkovich was finally freed after a 500-day odyssey in Russia’s prison system
Gershkovich was the first reporter to be charged with espionage since the cold war, and Putin barely hid his aim
(The Guardian) Evan Gershkovich was on a reporting trip deep in the Russian regions when the FSB came for him. The Wall Street Journal reporter was in Yekaterinburg, more than 850 miles from the Russian capital, when agents approached his table at a local bistro. As they frog-marched him out of the restaurant, the officers pulled Gershkovich’s shirt over his head to obscure his identity, witnesses said. The signal was clear: this was no ordinary arrest.
That began a nearly 500-day odyssey in Russia’s notorious prison system for Gershkovich, the first reporter to be arrested and charged with espionage since the cold war. The Russian government said Gershkovich had been recruited by the CIA to collect information about the country’s larger producer of main battle tanks, Uralvagonzavod.
The Kremlin Gets What It Wants
The release of journalists and dissidents is unequivocally good news—but the grubby reality is that the Russians have engaged in successful hostage-taking.
By Tom Nichols
(The Atlantic) Russia and its junior partner, Belarus, have agreed to a prisoner exchange with the United States and Germany. The deal includes the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, the retired U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, and the Russian British journalist and Kremlin opponent Vladimir Kara-Murza among the people who are being released after arrests and convictions on various charges. Some Russian dissidents, including allies of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny—who himself died in a Russian prison—were also freed and allowed to leave the country.
The Russians, for their part, are going to get their usual basket of criminals, including Vadim Krasikov*, a colonel in the Russian intelligence services who was sentenced to life in a German prison after carrying out a Kremlin-ordered hit on a Russian dissident in Berlin. Moscow’s shopping list also reportedly includes a Russian money launderer now in an American prison and two Russian spies caught in Slovenia.
*[Vadim Krasikov: who is Russian hitman linked to Navalny prisoner swap claim? – Allies of Russian opposition leader say he was killed to thwart exchange with FSB colonel jailed in Germany]
Today’s exchange is not a deal to trade professional intelligence officers as part of some romantic Cold War drama. No one is going to do a Bridge of Spies walk to freedom. (The hostages were flown to Ankara, where both sides agreed to meet and trade their prisoners.) The grubby reality is that the Russians have engaged in successful hostage-taking: They have arrested people on minor or trumped-up charges, and then agreed to free them in return for some very bad people the Kremlin wants to bring back to Russia. Krasikov, for one, will likely go home to “a hero’s welcome,” according to the investigative journalist Christo Grozev (who was reportedly involved in the negotiations). It’s that simple.
Trump congratulates Putin over deal that brought Evan Gershkovich home
(WaPo) Former president Donald Trump congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin over a prisoner swap that took place this week, saying the Russian strongman had outsmarted U.S. officials as part of the largest such deal since the end of the Cold War.

1 August
Foreign Interference in U.S. Election Heats Up
Russia and Iran aim to sow discord in the 2024 presidential race, officials warn.
(Foreign Policy) The U.S. intelligence community expects that Iran and Russia are adjusting their disinformation strategies to undermine democratic institutions, foment discord, and change public opinion in light of last month’s events, said a U.S. intelligence official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity based on ground rules set by the intelligence community.
– Russia is heavily leaning into right-wing conspiracy theories, including about the Trump assassination attempt, but said that the Kremlin expresses no clear preference for Trump in their efforts.
– Scaling up. The scale of foreign disinformation targeting U.S. elections is growing, especially with artificial intelligence powering it, and it’s getting more sophisticated, too.
– The U.S. intelligence official said foreign actors, especially Russia, are getting more professional, including by co-opting marketing and public relations firms to try to shape U.S. public opinion with fake websites and campaigns, even though Western authorities are catching up.