Canada – U.S. 1 May 2025-

Policy Series:
The Expert Group on Canada-US Relations Navigating Trump II
Charest talks Trump: ‘This is a wake-up call for Canada’

12 November
U of T hires three top U.S. scholars, announces $24-million recruitment plan
Mark Duggan, professor of economics at Stanford University, MIT economist Jacquelyn Pless and Canadian-born MIT astrophysicist Sara Seager.
(Globe & Mail) Three prominent U.S. scholars are moving to the University of Toronto, as the school embarks on a wave of talent attraction spurred in part by upheaval in the postsecondary sector in the United States.
The new hires include a husband-and-wife team of economists, Mark Duggan from Stanford University and Jacquelyn Pless from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as well as Canadian-born astrophysicist Sara Seager, also currently at MIT.
At the same time, U of T is also announcing a $24-million plan to recruit top young scholars from around the world as well as funding to boost the early career trajectory of the university’s own researchers.
Concerns about Trump and Canada-U.S. relations on the rise again: Nanos poll
(CTV) … Nanos pointed to two significant events in recent weeks that are likely driving the rise in Canadians’ concerns on those issues: Ontario’s anti-tariff ad, and the federal budget.
The ad, paid for by the government of Ontario, features a clip of former Republican U.S. president Ronald Reagan in a speech saying tariffs “hurt every American.”
In response to the ad — which played during two World Series games between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers — Trump announced he was terminating trade talks with Canada and imposing an additional 10 per cent tariff on Canadian goods. It remains unclear when those levies will come into effect.
The federal budget, meanwhile, largely hinges on increasing the Canadian economy’s resilience and reducing its dependence on the U.S. amid the ongoing trade war.
“Think of those two events as driving focus for Canadians on the Canada-U.S. relationship and what it means for the Canadian economy,” Nanos said.
U.S. predicted to lose $5.7 billion in tourism as Canadian boycott continues
‘Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease,’ U.S. tourism group says of falling numbers

29 October
Trump and Carney keep it civil over dinner ahead of APEC Summit
U.S. president and Canadian PM met face-to-face but barely spoke at APEC dinner
U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney were seated across the table and even acknowledged each other during a toast at a dinner ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-Operation Summit on Wednesday.
But the two leaders appeared to have virtually nothing to say to one another in a visible demonstration of the frost that’s formed over the U.S.-Canada relationship.

27 October
Carney says he’ll meet with Xi, Trump says he won’t see the PM for ‘a long time’
Donald Trump said Monday he won’t be meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney for some time, after a falling out over an Ontario government TV ad that criticized the U.S. President’s protectionist tariffs. … Mr. Trump broke off trade talks with Canada last week, citing the TV ad. After it aired during Game 1 of the World Series, he announced he would boost tariffs on Canadian imports by another 10 per cent.
“I don’t want to meet with him. I’m not going to be meeting with him for a long time,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Carney en route to Japan Monday, when he was asked whether he intended to hold talks with the Prime Minister during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea this week.
… Asked Monday how the relationship with the U.S. President eroded so quickly – and whether Mr. Trump is, in fact, toying with Canada – Mr. Carney said: “That’s a question for him.” He said he remains ready to talk with Mr. Trump.

23 October
Trump Says He’s Cutting Off Trade Negotiations With Canada
The president said his move, which again throws relations with one of the United States’ closest trading partners into turmoil, was motivated by an advertisement he deemed fraudulent.
(NYT) The ad that Mr. Trump mentioned in his post was taken out by the government of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and a key nexus of economic cooperation with the United States.
The ad, which according to the government of Ontario cost 75 million Canadian dollars ($53.5 million), uses audio from 1987 from President Ronald Reagan denouncing tariffs as destructive for the economy. The ad was to begin airing in the United States this week on Newsmax and Bloomberg, the Ontario government said, and then on several other U.S. channels over the course of the following two weeks. …
Ontario premier says he’ll pull ad that upset Trump so trade talks between Canada and US can resume
“We’ve achieved our goal, having reached U.S. audiences at the highest levels,” Ford said in a statement.
“Our intention was always to initiate a conversation about the kind of economy that Americans want to build and the impact of tariffs on workers and businesses.”
Ford said the commercials will continue to run this weekend including during the first World Series games between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.

21 October
U.S.-Canada trade deal could be ready for approval at APEC summit, sources say
(Globe & Mail) A trade deal on steel, aluminum and energy could be ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month, two sources say.
Such a deal would offer long-sought relief for the Canadian metals industry, which has been among the hardest hit in this country by U.S. tariffs. And any trade relief would ease pressure on Mr. Carney, who ran on his ability to manage Canada’s economy at a time of rising U.S. protectionism but failed to reach an agreement over the course of summer negotiations with Mr. Trump.
On the way into a cabinet meeting Tuesday, the Prime Minister was asked of the likelihood of reaching a deal with the President at APEC.
“You know, we’ll see. We’re in ongoing discussions with the Americans,” he said. “I wouldn’t overplay it. I’m looking forward to seeing the President at APEC in Korea, but we’re going to be seeing lots of other countries, and you know, one of our core elements of our strategy is diversifying trade.”

7 October
Canada, U.S. to work ‘quickly’ on tariff deals after Carney-Trump meeting
(Global) Canada and the United States will begin working “quickly” on deals that will bring “greater certainty” to the steel, aluminum and energy sectors, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said after Prime Minister Mark Carney met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
LeBlanc told reporters following the meeting that those deals will be a “first step” toward future conversations toward addressing sector-specific U.S. tariffs on other key Canadian industries including lumber and autos.
“We concluded what I think was a successful, positive, substantive conversation with President Trump on trade issues,” he said.
Trump says there is ‘natural conflict’ with Canada during Carney visit
(The Guardian) US president offers few concessions on tariffs after durable alliance fractured by trade war and annexation threats
Trump said he was willing to revisit the free trade agreement, which was enacted during his first term, or seek “different deals”.
Trump exhibited a fondness for Carney, something he did not display toward Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau. He described Carney as a “world-class leader” and said he is a tough negotiator.
“We want Canada to do great,” Trump said. “But you know, there’s a point at which we also want the same business.”
Asked why the US and Canada have failed to reach a deal on trade, Trump said it’s a complicated situation.
“We have natural conflict,” he said. “We also have mutual love.”
Trump interrupts Carney to talk ‘merger of Canada and the United States’
Prime Minister Mark Carney was listing Trump’s achievements during White House visit when the U.S. president cut him off

6 October
Great Lakes governors stand with Canada ahead of Carney’s high-stakes meeting with Trump
Trump has ‘demeaned our neighbours in the north,’ Pennsylvania governor says
(CBC) Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro blasted U.S. President Donald Trump for what he called his “tough-guy” approach to Canada after a meeting Monday with some provincial premiers in Quebec City.
Speaking to reporters after this year’s Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Governors and Premiers weekend summit, Shapiro, a Democrat, said he hopes Trump patches things up with Prime Minister Mark Carney at their meeting Tuesday in Washington.
“Instead of coming in and trying to bully the prime minister, actually sit down and work to hammer out a deal that lifts everyone up,” Shapiro said.
… Plus, Trump’s tariffs scheme has pushed up prices for Pennsylvania farmers, manufacturers and small businesses now that they have to pay the U.S. Treasury to bring in some Canadian goods.
“With the president pushing the tariff button, he’s not only alienating one of our most important global allies. He’s driving up the cost for Pennsylvanians,” he said. “We’re seeing prices go way up.”
Carney and Trump jointly agreed to reach some sort of agreement on tariffs by August — a deadline the two sides blew past with no deal.
Since then, the tariff pressure on Canada has only intensified as the Trump administration imposes its Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and their derivatives and the auto sector.
Just last week, Trump announced new Section 232 levies on lumber and timber, kitchen cabinets, vanities and other furniture and upholstered products, arguing Canadian and other imports are somehow a “national security” threat.
Canada aims for steel tariff relief as Carney hopes to improve relationship with Trump, sources say
The prime minister will meet with Trump at the White House on Tuesday
Two of the sources told Radio-Canada that Trump extended the invitation to Carney. It started with an informal verbal invitation, when the leaders met in New York City on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. Follow-up conversations between Canadian and U.S. teams formalized the date for Tuesday.
The sources also see this moment as an opportunity for Carney to improve his relationship with Trump after a tumultuous summer. Trade deadlines passed without new agreements, new tariffs have been imposed on Canada, and there have been difficult moments in the relationship, including Trump’s outrage over Canada’s digital services tax.

2 October
Carney’s U.S. point person says tariffs deal hasn’t hit a ‘dead end’
LeBlanc says he’s ‘hoping we can get progress’ before 2026 trade deal review
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Thursday the federal government is still holding out hope the two countries can reach a deal on punishing American tariffs before the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) comes up for review next year.
Speaking to the Senate’s foreign affairs and international trade committee, LeBlanc said he and other officials are in regular contact with their American counterparts about brokering a resolution to the ongoing trade dispute.
The North American trade partners have launched domestic consultations on renewing CUSMA — a potentially long and drawn out process that is required under the text of the deal U.S. President Donald Trump hashed out in his first term.

30 September
Carney welcomes ‘Trump’s historic new Middle East peace plan’ for Gaza
Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government is in support of a plan put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday to end the war between Israel and Hamas.
In a message posted to X on Monday evening, Carney said that “Canada welcomes President Trump’s historic new Middle East peace plan, and we urge all parties to help it realise its full potential.”
“As the critical next step, Hamas must immediately release all hostages,” the post read. “Canada stands ready to support the sustained, unimpeded, and large-scale delivery of humanitarian aid into and throughout Gaza.”

Trump again floats Canada joining the U.S. as the 51st state
‘Why don’t you just join our country? Become the 51st state,’ Trump says at speech to military officials

26 September
Good Talk: Taking on the U.S. Ambassador, Was It About Time? (video)
[U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra] was in Banff yesterday for what turned out to be a tense conversation with former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson. The ambassador, a seasoned American politician, and Robertson, no stranger to Canada-U.S. relations, went at it over some of the things that have been said between the two countries this year. Chantal Hebert and Bruce Anderson have lots to say about it all, too.

21 September
Recognition of Palestinian state puts Canada at odds with U.S.
The decision by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government puts it at odds with this country’s most important ally, the United States, and represents a significant shift in Canadian foreign policy, which previously held that such recognition would come only after a negotiated peace agreement between Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
Mr. Carney’s rationale, outlined in a statement published Sunday, amounted to a condemnation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Prime Minister said Canada could not delay recognition because the viability of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is eroding.
“The current Israeli government is working methodically to prevent the prospect of a Palestinian state from ever being established,” he said.
31 July
Trump threatens Canada on trade deal after Carney moves to recognise Palestine
Trump says recognising Palestine statehood ‘rewards Hamas’ and US deal with Canada would now be ‘very hard’

13 September
Carney says there’s been a ‘rupture.’ What’s he going to do about it this fall?
The prime minister — and Canadians — are facing many choices in short order
(CBC) Even while Mark Carney has been accused of lowering his elbows in regard to American tariffs, he continues to frame the larger challenge facing this country in stark terms.
“What’s going on is not a transition,” Carney said last week in Mississauga, Ont., while announcing an array of measures for industries impacted by the American administration’s actions. “It’s a rupture. And its effect will be profound.”
He saw the arrival of a “new age of economic nationalism and mercantilism” and described the current moment as an “age of adversity.” He invoked major nation-building infrastructure projects of the past and the national mobilization that took place in Canada during and after the Second World War.

5 September
Carney unveils billions in funding, Buy Canadian policy to combat Trump’s tariffs
New measures are 1st signs of industrial strategy government says will transform economy
Prime Minister Mark Carney rolled out a series of measures on Friday that he says will transform Canada’s economy into a force that can withstand the trade shocks of the Trump administration.
The measures announced in the strategy have been targeted to specifically help workers and businesses that have been most impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade disruptions.
A noteworthy part of the plan is to pause the electric vehicle (EV) mandate, a demand by the auto industry. The strategy waives the mandate for the 2026 model year and launches a 60-day review of the policy.
Up to 50,000 workers will be able to access a new “reskilling package” that will help them with training through their employer or recruitment companies.
A new $5-billion strategic response fund will help businesses develop products and find new markets.

3 September
Project 2025 mastermind invited to speak at Carney’s cabinet meeting
PMO says Heritage Foundation president knows the Trump administration’s playbook
(CBC) A prominent conservative figure in American politics and the mastermind behind Project 2025 — the infamous policy blueprint that proposed a drastic overhaul of the U.S. government — will speak to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet behind closed doors Thursday.
Carney and his ministers are in the Greater Toronto Area for two days of meetings ahead of the fall parliamentary sitting. According to the list of guest speakers, the Liberal team is hearing from Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank that has shaped Republican administrations since the 1980s.
It’s the group that spearheaded Project 2025, a 900-page manifesto meant to usher in a new ultra-conservative administration supported by more than 100 like-minded organizations.
Roberts is speaking to Carney’s cabinet during a session dubbed “establishing a new economic and security relationship with the U.S.” They will also hear from Kevin Rudd, Australia’s ambassador to the U.S., during the session.
The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said Roberts is speaking to cabinet about trade issues because he knows the Trump administration’s playbook.
Roberts’s book Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America includes a foreword written by U.S. Vice-President JD Vance
Carney Sends Envoys to DC After ‘Constructive’ Trump Call
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Mark Carney said Canada and the US are in negotiations to resolve issues in tariff-affected sectors after a conversation with President Donald Trump.
Carney is expecting agreements in some strategic sectors, such as autos, steel and aluminum, but cautioned that a deal might not come together quickly.
Canada is also looking for ways to resolve trade frictions with China, which imposed tariffs on Canadian agricultural items after Canada placed levies on Chinese products.

28 August
Canadians caught in crossfire as U.S. customs searches of electronic devices rise at borders
‘What we’re seeing is an exercise of discretion that’s much stricter than ever before’: Toronto-based lawyer
(CBC) U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has released new data showing a sharp rise in electronic device searches at border crossings.
From July to August alone, CBP conducted 14,899 electronic device searches, up more than 21 per cent from the previous quarter. CBP also reported a 36 per cent increase compared to all of last year’s third quarter. Most of those were basic searches, but 1,075 were “advanced,” allowing officers to copy and analyze device contents.
While electronic device searches jumped by 12.6 per cent over the past year, the total number of travellers entering the United States rose by 6.6 per cent. Among the most notable inceases are searches of U.S. citizens’ devices, which rose nearly 22 per cent.

21-22 August
Canada Is Optimistic on Making a Deal With Trump, Trade Minister Says
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Canada is confident of reaching a trade deal with the US after scrapping most of its retaliatory tariffs, according to Dominic LeBlanc.
LeBlanc cited conversations with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Mark Carney’s communications with President Donald Trump as a reason for his optimism.
Canada has received no indication that US steel and aluminum tariffs would come down, according to LeBlanc.
Earlier on Friday, Carney announced that Canada will end counter-tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of US goods imposed under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, saying Trump indicated this would restart trade talks that have stalled.
Retaliatory tariff turnaround puts Ottawa in better negotiating spot: LeBlanc
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the decision to drop retaliatory tariffs puts Ottawa in a better position to negotiate changes to U.S. President Donald Trump’s devastating duties on key sectors and eases tensions ahead of a review of a critical continental trade agreement.
“Our responsibility as the government is to get the best deal we can for Canadian businesses and Canadian workers,” LeBlanc told The Canadian Press in an interview from Moncton, N.B. “We have to be prepared to sit constructively at a table with the other side of the table and have that conversation.”
Ottawa drops some retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in bid to reset trade talks
(Globe & Mail) Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Friday that Canada is removing retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. products in a bid to reset trade discussions with the White House that have stalled in recent weeks.
He said Ottawa will remove tariffs on U.S. goods that comply with North American free-trade deal rules, mirroring a key carve-out U.S. President Donald Trump made for Canadian goods.
Carney and Trump speak for the first time in months, after breakdown of trade talks
(Globe & Mail) The Canadian side said the talk was productive and wide-ranging, touching on trade, security and Ukraine. The leaders last spoke in late June, after meeting at the G7 conference in Kananaskis, Alta.
There have been few updates on the trade front since the two countries blew past Mr. Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline without reaching any agreement to address tariffs and other trade irritants.
Despite a flurry of visits to Washington by Canadian trade negotiators ahead of the deadline, no deal emerged. Instead, Mr. Trump increased the blanket tariffs on Canadian goods to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, while maintaining a crucial carve-out for products that comply with continental free-trade agreement rules.
“The leaders discussed current trade challenges, opportunities, and shared priorities in a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S.,” said a summary of Thursday’s call released by the Prime Minister’s Office.
For months after becoming Prime Minister, Mr. Carney said Canada would only accept a trade deal with the United States that removed all tariffs. That included the blanket tariff – ostensibly imposed to push Canada to address fentanyl trafficking – and the sectoral tariffs (known as Section 232 tariffs) applied to steel, aluminum, automobiles and more recently copper.
Last month, however, he acknowledged that Canada was unlikely to achieve the full removal of tariffs.
He said he reached this conclusion after seeing the agreements Mr. Trump struck with other large trading partners and allies, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, which all left a baseline 15-per-cent tariff in place as well as sectoral tariffs, with some carve-outs.
Since attempts to attain some sort of comprehensive agreement flamed out last month, the Canadian negotiating team has remained in contact with their U.S. counterparts, but the level of engagement has dropped significantly.

10 August
‘Acute, Sustained, Profound and Abiding Rage’: Canada Finds Its Voice
By Stephen Marche, Toronto-based journalist and podcast host
(NYT guest opinion) Canada is living through an era of acute, sustained, profound and abiding rage. The source is President Trump; the object is the United States. The president, commander of the most powerful military the world has ever known, has declared repeatedly that he intends to soften up the Canadian economy in preparation for annexation. Americans, from what I can tell, don’t seem to take this possibility seriously, even though he undertook the task in earnest last week by imposing a 35 percent tariff. The American threat to our sovereignty, so sudden, so foolish, is reshaping Canadian life.

9 August
The PM drops his elbows, at least for now
Globe & Mail editorial board
… Now it’s early August, Canada has some of the highest tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on any country, and Mr. Carney has blown past two deadlines for reaching a deal with the United States.
… Instead of reaching a quick deal, he has lowered expectations by saying that any agreement (which might come later this month) will include some level of tariffs. He has also resisted putting additional retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports into Canada while he is still in negotiations.
Canadians will have to wait longer to find out if this strategy pays off, but there are arguments to support what Mr. Carney is doing.
Chief among them is that, for now, time is on Canada’s side. While Mr. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum are damaging, and those on cars and car parts are disruptive, the rest are mitigated by USMCA exceptions that cover up to 95 per cent of Canadian goods.
Economists are predicting slowed or stalled growth in the U.S. if the tariffs persist at current levels for more than a few months. Inflation rose in June, and job numbers are softening – a consequence that Mr. Trump fears so badly that he fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics when the most recent data weren’t to his liking.
With midterm elections coming next year, Mr. Trump can’t afford to have Americans lose their jobs or to see their wages eaten away by inflation.
This concern is amplified by the fact Canada is the chief export market for 36 American states. Any new retaliatory tariffs implemented by Ottawa could sour voters in those states on the Republican Party.
Moreover, while Canada’s exports to the U.S. dropped 12.5 per cent year-on-year in June, its exports to markets in Europe and Asia jumped 14.7 per cent over the same period. It would be impossible to fully replace the U.S. with other trade partners, but this is a demonstration of the reality that Canadian businesses can find new markets if needed.

6 August
Carney meets with cabinet and premiers to talk through tariff strategy

Tariff Rate Quotas: A New Strategy for Canada-US Trade Talks
Fen Osler Hampson
(Policy) In the aftermath of the August 1st decision by the Trump administration to ratchet up tariffs to 35% on all non-CUSMA-compliant Canadian exports, Canada finds itself at a crossroads. Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper already strike at the core of our heavy industries. Automobiles and softwood lumber are also in his crosshairs.
Unless there is a breakthrough in talks soon, or relief through successful court challenges against presidential overreach in Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his sweeping tariffs, further trouble on the trade front may arise unless we adjust our strategy. The time has come for Canadian negotiators to consider redirecting talks away from tariffs to tariff rate quota-based (TRQ) trade.

5 August
Michigan Governor Confronts Trump on Tariff Hit to Auto Industry
Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer told President Donald Trump that his tariffs are having a negative effect on her state’s flagship auto industry during a closed-door meeting at the White House.
Whitmer, a possible 2028 presidential candidate, made the case on Tuesday that Michigan’s economy is tied to auto manufacturing and that the tariffs are hurting it, according to a person briefed on the meeting. She argued that Michigan is vulnerable to duties on Canada and Mexico and pushed Trump to help her create jobs in Michigan, the person said.
… Trump is betting that duties on imports of vehicles and parts will bring more auto manufacturing to the US. But they risk upsetting globally integrated supply chains, which could drive up costs for manufacturers and consumers.

31 July-1 August
Trump signs order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%
Decision, described by Mark Carney as ‘disappointing’, comes amid escalating trade tensions between the two countries
Trump escalates trade war with Canada following Palestine stance
(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his trade war with Canada a day ahead of his August 1 deadline for a tariff agreement, saying it would be “very hard” to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood.

24-29 July
Inside the unfolding drama of Canada-U.S. trade talks.
(Canada Playbook) Despite months of back and forth in rooms ranging from mountainous Kananaskis, Alberta, to steamy Washington, D.C., Canada has not managed to secure final terms of an economic and security deal with the U.S.
Behind closed doors, Canadian and U.S. officials have spent months circling the same unresolved issues, with Trump’s team sidestepping specifics, a senior Canadian government official tells Playbook.
Face-to-face meetings: Officials describe the meetings between Canadian officials — Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN — and U.S. officials, Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK and Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT, as chaotic and one-sided, with the Americans recycling grievances and offering no clear path forward.
Lutnick or Bessent often riff off Trump’s greatest hits, raising security issues at the U.S. border, complaining about fentanyl smuggling and asking why Canada treats the U.S. unfairly.
Trump’s team swerves to a new topic every time they meet, the senior federal government official said. LeBlanc mainly listens, the same official told Playbook.
— Defending the talks: “The way this has worked with our trading partners who have secured deals, or are making progress towards one, is that they came to us with deal offers, that were then refined and negotiated further,” a White House official said in a statement.
— What Canada wants: Carney has conceded any deal with Trump is likely to include some level of tariffs. Now the Liberal government wants stability, especially around tariffs invoked using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
— Feeling the pain: The trade war is pummelling Canada’s auto, steel, aluminum and forestry industries and leading to a decline in investment.
The Carney government wants those tariffs eliminated, or lowered to a fixed level that doesn’t fluctuate, the senior government official said. “If we know what world we’re going into, then we can have better plans and policies to attract investment.”
— Sharing notes: Japan, the European Union and Mexico have traded notes with Canada on the unconventional negotiations, discussing what it’s like to deal with Trump’s administration.

U.S. and Canada might not reach trade deal, Trump says
‘Canada could be one where there’s just a tariff,’ says U.S. president, with his Aug. 1 deadline looming
U.S. President Donald Trump says his country may not reach a new trade deal with Canada and could simply impose more or higher tariffs on its northern neighbour — something he’s threatening to do in one week’s time.
“We haven’t really had a lot of luck with Canada,” Trump told reporters Friday outside the White House in response to a question about the state of tariff talks with U.S. trading partners.
Canada’s trade team downplays chances of deal with Trump by Aug. 1
‘We have a lot of work in front of us,’ Dominic LeBlanc says in Washington

23 July
Près de 100 000 tonnes d’aluminium québécois ont changé de destination
Les usines québécoises d’Alcoa peuvent rediriger un peu moins du tiers de leur production à l’international pour éviter les droits de douane américains de 50 %.
Stéphane Rolland La Presse Canadienne
Depuis le mois de mars, Alcoa a redirigé près de 100 000 tonnes d’aluminium qui aurait été destiné au marché américain, a indiqué le président et chef de la direction de l’entreprise, William Oplinger, au cours d’une présentation aux investisseurs la semaine dernière.
« Nous avons la capacité de rediriger près de 30 % du volume canadien vers des destinations autres que les États-Unis, a dit le patron de la société américaine. Nous le ferons tant que ce sera plus sensé de l’envoyer ailleurs. »
Les activités canadiennes de la société américaine Alcoa sont concentrées au Québec, où elle a trois usines.
Unified on Trump and Tariffs, Canada’s Premiers Differ on Next Steps
A three-day meeting in response to President Trump’s looming tariff threat underscored differences between the leaders of Canada’s provinces and territories.
(NYT) The leaders of Canada’s provinces and territories spoke as one during a three-day meeting when it came to condemning President Trump’s annexation threats and trade war against the country.
But when it came to how Canada should respond and deal with the resulting economic turmoil, their patriotic unity swiftly dissipated into the regional rifts that have long divided the country.
Even after meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday, the 13 premiers still had conflicting views about further trade retaliation against the United States if Mr. Trump goes ahead on Aug. 1 and imposes 35 percent tariffs on Canadian exports.
Even without a single project being announced, divisions have formed among provinces around Mr. Carney’s plan to offset economic losses from reduced trade with the United States by rapidly building major infrastructure projects like oil pipelines.

Andrew Caddell: Why we must defend supply management
… Trump writes, “Canada charges extraordinary Tariffs to our Dairy Farmers—up to 400%—and that is even assuming our Dairy Farmers have access to sell their products to the people of Canada. The Trade Deficit is a major threat to our Economy, and, indeed, our National Security.”
Of course, all that is nonsense. First, our dairy producers are not creating a trade deficit in the U.S. Second, American farmers already have access to the Canadian market under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). It amounts to 3.6 per cent of Canada’s dairy market, with a 50,000 metric ton quota for fluid milk.
Only after this massive quota is reached do tariffs kick in, but the quota has never been exceeded. In addition, the quota increases each year for 13 years for cheese, cream, skim milk powder, and butter/cream powder from the U.S. As a result, American exports of dairy products have climbed by 67 per cent—US$525-million in 2021 to US$877-million in 2024.
Meanwhile, some Canadian economists have jumped on the Trump bandwagon, calling for the end of supply management. Never mind the dairy industry generates $20-billion annually, employing more than 200,000 Canadians. Their argument is we are hurting other agriculture exports by restricting foreign access to dairy.
The result would not be an open market for dairy products, but rather copying the U.S. and Europe by providing subsidies to our dairy producers to the tune of billions of dollars a year. …

22 July
Keep it up, nasty Canadians
The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Peter Hoekstra, called Canadians ‘mean and nasty’ for boycotting American products, including removing American liquor from store shelves.
Campbell Clark
“We’re not getting as much coverage in the Canadian media, but I keep my eyes on what the U.S. press is saying, and they are starting to really notice massive drops,” said former New Democratic MP Charlie Angus, now a “Resistance” ringleader who writes Substack essays and speaks at boycott rallies.
U.S. alcohol sales have been hit. American exports of food to Canada amounted to US$28-billion in 2024, but Mr. Angus noted that some grocery stores pulled many U.S. products from their shelves. He argued that ordinary Canadians have more tools to pressure the U.S. than political leaders.
Canadians expected Mark Carney to be a tough-talking, “wartime” prime minister, Mr. Angus said, but “we haven’t seen that.” But he also said he realizes Mr. Carney is trying to navigate the complexities of “dealing with a gangster regime” in Washington.
“This is where the power of the boycott is a unique political lever, because Mark Carney or Doug Ford or Daniel Smith can’t tell people to stop the boycott,” Mr. Angus said.
Canada prepared to hold out for best deal in U.S. trade talks, Carney says
(Globe & Mail) Prime Minister Mark Carney and several premiers say getting the best deal for Canada is what matters in the latest round of trade talks with the United States, even if that means blowing past the countries’ Aug. 1 deadline.
Mr. Carney updated provincial and territorial leaders on the state of those talks Tuesday at a meeting he called in direct response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35 per cent at the beginning of next month.
The premiers told Mr. Carney Canada doesn’t need to rush the trade talks.
“We’ve encouraged the Prime Minister to not make a deal at all costs,” New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said.
“I think the timeline is of lesser importance than the substance of the deal and the impact of the tariffs and what we agree to and what we hold the line on,” she told reporters.

12 July
Charest talks Trump: ‘This is a wake-up call for Canada’
(The Corner Booth) These days as a member of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s council on Canada-U.S. relations, Charest is focused on American President Donald Trump. Made up of leaders in business, innovation and policy, the council is tasked with advising the prime minister and his cabinet during this sensitive time in international relations.
Fresh from Trump’s latest tariff threats that risk devastating Quebec’s economy, Charest joined hosts Aaron Rand and Bill Brownstein…to discuss his latest, and perhaps most critical, political battle yet. “Mark Carney got a mandate to face up to Trump, but also to change our economy,” Charest said. “And this is a wake-up call for Canada. And I’m of the school of those who really believe that we’ll thank Trump in 20 years.”
Although it happened in an unwanted way, Charest said Trump’s tactics will “force us to change the way our economy operates, to be more productive and get our act together to be able to build infrastructure, because we were fairly complacent.” (YouTube podcast)

10 July
Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on Canada in the Middle of Trade Talks
The president revived his discredited claims about fentanyl entering the U.S. from Canada to justify his latest proposed rate of 35 percent.
(NYT) Mr. Trump posted a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada on social media outlining his latest threat. He said the new, higher tariff rate for Canada would go into effect on Aug. 1, though it was unclear if it would affect all Canadian goods, or if he would follow through. Mr. Carney’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment about Mr. Trump’s letter.
The letter to Canada resembled the format of letters Mr. Trump has sent to nearly two dozen American trading partners this week. But it deviated from the other letters by accusing Canada of having “financially retaliated” against the United States with its own tariffs. It also raised Mr. Trump’s repeated assertion — unsupported by American and Canadian data — that Canada had not done enough to stop the flow of fentanyl across the U.S.-Canada border, as well as his complaints about Canada’s high tariffs on U.S. dairy farmers.
Mr. Trump also suggested that the new tariffs were subject to further negotiations ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. “These Tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country,” Mr. Trump concluded.
Trade talks between the United States and Canada have intensified over the past few weeks. During the meeting of the leaders of the Group of 7 industrialized nations that was held in Canada last month, Mr. Carney imposed a deadline of July 21 for a new agreement between the two countries. He has said that Canada will only accept an elimination of all tariffs between the countries.

9 July
Canada’s Evolving Place in a Perilous World
Jeremy Kinsman
(Policy) Trump’s former National Security Adviser told Fareed Zakaria that Trump’s mind is like “an archipelago of a million dots.” He can’t connect them into a coherent plan beyond transactional deals, and nor can anyone else.
His MAGA movement stands for whatever he decides. But it is upending geopolitical, economic, and even ideological relationships and realities. Trump associates openly support ultra-right illiberal political parties opposing the leadership of European democracies.
There is therefore a kind of notion of an isolationist, nationalist, and yet expansionist America that propels Trump and his movement, and it is adversarial to Canadian sovereignty, to say the least. …
in a seemingly congenial encounter at the G7 in Alberta that Carney chaired (which Trump attended for a day before flying back to Washington to bomb Iran), the two leaders agreed to try to settle all bilateral issues by July 21st. Meanwhile, Carney goosed up Canada’s military spending commitment very considerably, enabling Canada to join a NATO consensus to reach 5% by 2035, facilitating a quarrel-free NATO Summit in The Hague a week later, orchestrated to give Trump a “win,” and retain US commitment to NATO. It did seem like Carney was trying hard to reduce friction with the US.
Yet, on June 29, Trump called off the negotiations with Canada, citing Canada’s law, passed in the waning days of the Trudeau Government, to impose a 3% tax, about to come due, on the billions of dollars earned by US showcase corporations in Canada via cross-border digital sales of services: Uber, Amazon, Google, etc.
In short order, Carney rescinded the tax. Almost immediately, the White House celebrated that Carney had “caved” and Trump had got another “win”. In Canada, those who doubted that Carney could stand the heat worried aloud.
The “DST” issue has been under discussion in the OECD for a decade. Its resolution for international tax purposes is important. The UK, France, and Italy decided each to institute national digital tax regimes on their own. … The US objected, but the only Trumpian explosion was against Canada. Why? Because he could. Maybe international admiration for Carney “standing up to him” was getting up his Presidential nose. More likely is the fact that in the US treasure-house, these Big Tech service industries are leading the world (though China’s are creeping up). And, in Trump’s mind, for purposes of “rights,” Canada is part of a notional US-owned North American market.
Some things count to the US more than others. Historically, in film distribution, publishing, even music, it had been very hard to establish a distinct Canadian market for rights to import and distribute copyrighted work, a real handicap to the financial viability of Canadian cultural industries. …

6 July
Amid tariffs and falling sales, is Canada’s EV mandate doomed?
Experts say Carney could make adjustments instead of ending mandate outright
(CBC) With U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and light-duty vehicles continuing to batter the Canadian automobile industry, the CEOs of Canada’s big three automakers are asking for a break.
They met with Prime Minister Mark Carney this week to lobby for the elimination of the Liberal government’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. Maintaining it, they say, will cripple their companies and put thousands of jobs at risk.

29-30 June
Trade talks with U.S. resumed on Monday morning, says Carney
PM says DST removal ‘is part of a bigger negotiation’
(CBC) Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on the phone Sunday evening. He said they decided to continue with negotiations, with the previously agreed-upon July 21 deadline still in mind.
Carney said that the decision to remove the digital services tax (DST) “is part of a bigger negotiation” with the U.S.
“It is something we expected, in the broader sense, that would be part of a broader deal,” Carney told reporters Monday afternoon.
He said it “doesn’t make sense” to collect the tax now and have to remit it at a later date.
Canada Will Scrap Tax That Prompted Trump to Suspend Trade Talks
The government said on Sunday night that it would cancel its tax on American technology companies, handing a victory to the Trump administration.
(NYT) Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed the decision to scrap Canada’s digital services tax with Mr. Trump on Sunday, Mr. Carney’s office said. In a sign that trade talks were resuming, Canada’s finance minister, François-Philippe Champagne, spoke with the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, on Sunday, according to Mr. Carney’s office.
The tax, which had been due to take effect on Monday, became the latest flashpoint in difficult negotiations between the United States and Canada on Friday, when Mr. Trump said the talks were off. On social media, Mr. Trump called the levy a “blatant attack” and said he would inform Canada within a week about the duties “they will be paying to do business with the United States of America.”
Canada ditches tax on tech giants in bid to restart US trade talks
With digital services tax rescinded, Donald Trump and Mark Carney agree to resume negotiations with a view to agreeing a deal by 21 July
In a press release, the federal government said it would rescind the tax “in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States.”
“Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025,” the press release added
Minister of Finance François-Philippe Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Act, Finance Canada said Sunday.

28 June
Canada’s Trump-Fueled Brain Gain</strong
The University of Toronto has attracted several U.S. professors amid turmoil between American higher-education institutions and the Trump administration.
(NYT) A year ago, when Timothy Snyder and his wife, Marci Shore, both prominent Yale historians, moved to Canada after being recruited to the University of Toronto, they thought it would be a fun adventure.
… The Trump administration has put U.S. colleges in its cross hairs, accusing some of cradling haters of America. It has launched policies that threaten to expel international students and jeopardize funding and academic freedoms.
Professors Snyder and Shore, along with Jason Stanley, a Yale philosophy professor who also moved to Toronto, have in recent months become outspoken about the Trump administration.
They published a widely shared New York Times video opinion piece titled, “We Study Fascism, and We’re Leaving the U.S.”
At the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, they joined Brian Rathbun and Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, international relations professors who made a similar move last year from the University of Southern California.
These hirings offer early signs that at least some academic talent is moving away from American schools, with Canada emerging as a notable destination.

27 June
Trump terminates trade talks with Canada (00:58-08:10)
CBC News: The National |
(YouTube) ALL TRADE TALKS WITH THE U.S. ARE NOW OFF AS DONALD TRUMP LASHES OUT OVER CANADA’S DIGITAL SERVICE TAX. IT’S SET TO KICK IN ON MONDAY, AND TRUMP CALLS IT A BLATANT ATTACK ON HIS COUNTRY. THAT MAJOR MOVE, LIKE SO MANY OTHERS, ANNOUNCED BY TRUMP ON-LINE, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, THE TWO COUNTRIES HAD BEEN TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TRADE DEAL FOR WEEKS. …
Trump wants to ‘crow’ that ‘he’s the winner’ in the negotiations, Mulcair says after talks end
Political commentator Tom Mulcair reacts to Trump ending trade negotiations with Canada, saying it’s a sign a deal could be close.
Trump terminating Canada-trade talks a ‘negotiating tactic’: Eric Ham
U.S. political analyst Eric Ham calls Trump’s ‘abrupt’ ending to trade talks with Canada a ‘negotiating tactic’ as he feels he has the ‘wind at his back.’
Canada won’t delay digital services tax during U.S. trade negotiations, says finance minister
Tax on companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, Uber, Airbnb will apply retroactively
‘We have all the cards’: Trump ending all trade talks with Canada ‘immediately’ over digital services tax
(CTV) U.S. President Donald Trump says his team is ending all trade talks with Canada, “effective immediately,” citing disagreement over Canada’s controversial digital services tax as the reason for shutting down negotiations.
He made the announcement in a post Friday on Truth Social, calling the levy “a direct and blatant attack” on the U.S. and its technology companies.
Trump’s announcement is a wrench in ongoing trade discussions between the two countries, which have been in the throes of a trade war for months, since the president’s first slate of tariffs on Canadian goods in February.

Approximately 55 Canadians have been detained by ICE, minister says
ICE operations have been under increased public scrutiny since Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, said ICE officers would target at least 3,000 arrests a day, up from about 650 a day during the first five months of Trump’s second term. ICE operations have sparked protests across the U.S., leading to arrests and curfews.
During her interview with CTV News, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand responded to questions about the Canadian citizen who died in ICE custody on June 23.
She said consular officials had been in contact with Johnny Noviello, 49, since he was detained by ICE on May 15.
… Noviello entered the U.S. with a visa on Jan. 2, 1988. He became a permanent resident three years later. In October 2023, he was convicted in eastern Florida for racketeering and drug trafficking and sentenced to 12 months in prison.

23 June
Mark Carney names Kirsten Hillman chief negotiator with U.S.
Hillman has worked at the Canadian embassy in Washington since 2017 and has served as ambassador since her acting appointment in 2019.
Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman will take on the role of top negotiator for Canada as the country seeks a new trade and security pact with the Donald Trump administration.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office confirms Hillman has been named to the position, making her U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s opposite number in the bilateral trade talks.
Emily Williams, Carney’s director of communications, also confirms Hillman will stay on as Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., as first reported by The Globe and Mail newspaper.
Hillman was a key Canadian negotiator under the first Trump White House when Canada renegotiated NAFTA, and served as Canada’s chief negotiator for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

16 June
U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Prime Minister Mark Carney have different concepts around trade. Trump reiterated his support for tariffs, saying: ‘It’s simple, it’s easy, it’s precise.’ Trump noted that Carney has ‘a more complex idea,’ and said, ‘we’re going to look at both.’
Carney and Trump commit to signing new trade deal within 30 days
The heads of the world’s seven most powerful economies are meeting amid a U.S.-led tariff war and global uncertainty
(National Post) Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump expect to sign a new trade deal within 30 days, marking a major turn in bilateral relations and signalling a potential end to the ongoing trade war.
The major development came in a readout by the prime minister’s office of a roughly hour-long meeting between both leaders Monday morning.
“To that end, the leaders agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming 30 days,” it continues. The PMO clarified that meant a new deal would be signed within that timeline.
During a media availability earlier in the day, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he felt a new trade deal with Canada could be achievable shortly, but did not suggest a timeline.
In a press conference after the Trump and Carney bilateral, Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc also said talks were accelerating with the Americans but omitted to mention the 30 day deadline.

4-5 June
Carney and Trump holding direct talks on trade and security, U.S. envoy says
(Globe & Mail) U.S. ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra told The Globe and Mail that talks between the leaders and top cabinet ministers are being held under a cone of silence to ensure a positive outcome.
… The talks include Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Mr. Hoekstra said.
Mr. Hoekstra said the Canadians and Americans are “laying out the perimeters” of a deal that could involve boosting U.S. content in autos, improving U.S. access to Canadian critical minerals and ensuring Canada plays a much bigger role in the Arctic. The talks also include increased defence spending, energy, border security, fentanyl as well as steel and aluminum.
Carney and Trump are holding private talks to drop tariffs
Ottawa hoping to reach agreement with Trump administration before G7 summit
(CBC) Prime Minister Mark Carney says the trading relationship with the U.S. is important to both sides. Sources confirmed to CBC News that the U.S. president has been having phone conversations with Carney over tariffs.
Sources with knowledge of the conversations first confirmed the calls with CBC/Radio-Canada and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly later told reporters that Carney and Trump are talking to each other.
A source, who spoke on the condition they not be named, said the two leaders have had a few phone calls in the evenings and exchanged text messages about trade since Carney’s visit to the White House last month.
Carney says Canada is preparing reprisals if tariff talks with Trump fail
U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have now doubled
Trump doubles metals tariffs, Carney tight lipped on Canada’s response.
U.S. President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25 per cent to 50 per cent.
The presidential proclamation went into force at 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday. In that document, Trump said the new rate would better counter “foreign countries that continue to offload low-priced, excess steel and aluminum,” undercutting the U.S. market.
Ottawa called the additional levies “unlawful and unjustified.” About a quarter of all steel used in the United States is imported and Canada is its largest supplier.
Industry Minister Melanie Joly said she and her colleagues are reviewing a variety of options, and that they need more time, “but not much,” to decide on the best path forward.
Canada has already placed counter tariffs on a gamut of U.S. goods, she noted, adding Ottawa’s eventual response must impose “maximum pain” on the U.S. while inflicting “minimum impact” on Canadians.
Meanwhile, she said, Canada will invest in military and infrastructure projects to create more jobs in the steel and aluminum sectors.

1 June
Is Canada-U.S. trade ‘progress’ possible in 2 weeks? Ontario rep says ‘yes’
Provincial and federal negotiators are making progress with the Trump administration on lowering U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Canada, Ontario’s trade representative in Washington says, suggesting a deal could be close at hand.
David Paterson said he’s hopeful that further progress in reducing those tariffs can be made by the time Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney are face-to-face at the G7 Leader’s Summit in Alberta in two weeks.

31 May
Trump’s new steel tariffs will cause ‘mass disruption’, Canadian industry warns
Trump said on Friday that he will double the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 per cent.
Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA), said the steel industry in Canada and the U.S. were highly integrated and tariffs would hit steel producers on both sides.
“Steel tariffs at this level will create mass disruption and negative consequences across our highly integrated steel supply chains and customers on both sides of the border,” Cobden said in a statement Saturday.

26 May
King Charles Visits Canada in a Subtle Rebuke to Trump
The British monarch, who is Canada’s official head of state, is coming at a moment when President Trump has threatened the country’s sovereignty.
(NYT) Charles and Queen Camilla are in Canada at the invitation of Prime Minister Mark Carney. Charles will open Canada’s Parliament Tuesday in a ceremony laden with pageantry and pomp before winding up his two day visit. It was Charles’s first visit to Canada since he was crowned two years ago. …
Without saying so explicitly, Mr. Carney suggested that he was taking the unusual step of having the monarch open Parliament to emphasize Canada’s distinct heritage from the United States, at a time when President Trump has repeatedly called for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state.

23 May
Bad news for Trump’s Golden Dome: He can’t build it without Canada
The president would need to rely on Ottawa to track Chinese and Russian missiles that could come at the U.S. from over the horizon.
(Politico) President Donald Trump left out a key detail this week when he outlined his plans for a massive missile and air defense shield over the continent: He can’t build it without Canada.
And it’s not clear America’s northern neighbor wants in.
…while Trump insists the country wants to participate, Canadian leaders appear more tepid.
“There’s a lot we just don’t know,” said Shuvaloy Majumdar, a Conservative member of Canada’s parliament. “There’s a lot that needs to be revealed about how the economic and security partnership with America and Canada will unfold.”
Trump suddenly finds himself in need of an ally he has largely forsaken. He has singled out Canada for free riding on American military might and preferential trade ties, and has engaged in a tariff battle that has stilted relations. Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned the United States can’t take Ottawa for granted and has begun searching for other security partners.
The shield, therefore, gives Canada some new leverage in the countries’ tenuous relationship.
“None of [the Golden Dome partnership] has been spelled out or negotiated,” Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. “The president, because of his rhetoric, has alienated a large part of the Canadian population, and that’s being reflected in the political leaders … it’s not, you know, good old Canada-USA. It’s like, ‘We can’t do this easily, because our people are very upset.’”

14 May
Canada’s new tariffs on U.S. drop to ‘nearly zero’ with exemptions, Oxford says
(BNN/Bloomberg) Canada has effectively suspended almost all of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, tamping down inflation risks and improving its growth outlook, according to Oxford Economics.
The government imposed new import taxes of 25 per cent on about $60 billion (US$43 billion) of U.S.-made goods in March in response to the first round of tariffs from the Trump administration. Canada also retaliated against U.S. auto tariffs in early April by putting its own levies on U.S. vehicles.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government then announced a six-month tariff exemption for products used in Canadian manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, and for items related to health care, public safety and national security. Automakers got a break, too: companies that manufacture in Canada, such as General Motors Co., are allowed to import some vehicles into Canada tariff-free.
Those exemptions mean Canada’s tariff-rate increase on the U.S. is “nearly zero,” according to calculations by Oxford.
“It’s a very strategic approach from a new prime minister to really say, ‘We’re not going to have a retaliation,’” Tony Stillo, Oxford’s director of Canada economics, said in an interview. “It’s a strategic play on the government’s part to not damage the Canadian economy.”

13 May
Travellers change plans to avoid intense U.S. border checks as Canadian airlines rethink routes
(Globe & Mail) More Canadian travellers are avoiding the United States, with some deterred by intensive border checks and shifting their holiday plans, while Canada’s airlines are adjusting their routes and schedules in response.
New figures released Monday show a steep drop in the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by either air or car in April, as fewer people head south of the border for shopping or vacations.
Travel to the U.S. takes another hit in April as Canadians vacation elsewhere
Canadian residents returning by automobile from the U.S. in April fell on a year-over-year basis for the fourth consecutive month, preliminary numbers released by Statistics Canada showed Monday. The 1.2 million trips represented a 35.2 per cent drop from the same month in 2024 and 45.1 per cent lower than April 2019, before the pandemic.
In a backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and “51st state” threats over the past few months, Canadians have cancelled trips and appear to be stepping back from making future travel plans south of the border.
… Canadian residents returning by air from the United States in April totalled 582,700, down 19.9 per cent from a year ago, even as return trips from overseas went up. The change came as overall Canadian-resident return trips by air edged down 1.7 per cent to 1.8 million as return trips from overseas countries rose 9.9 per cent compared with April 2024.
Overall international arrivals, including both Canadian residents and non-residents, by air and automobile totalled 4.5 million in April, down 15.2 per cent from the same month last year, Statistics Canada said.
… In March, Air Canada reduced flights by 10 per cent to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona – usually go-to hot spots during spring break season. Competitors WestJet, Flair Airlines and Air Transat made similar moves.
Last week, Air Canada also announced a 16 per cent capacity increase into Latin America starting in October.
Several conferences relocate north of the border as Canadians refuse to travel to the U.S.
Conference organizers say they made changes after members expressed concerns over U.S. travel

6 May
Carney says Canada ‘not for sale’ while Trump pitches tax breaks
The president took a friendlier posture in person, but refused to budge on tariffs.
(Politico) The first substantive encounter between the newly elected Canadian leader and Trump, whose antagonism of Canada helped Carney gain political support, involved mostly gestures of friendship and pledges from both sides to reset the trade relationship. But the public portion of their remarks did not reveal specifics of what shape a pact might take — and the impasse over Trump’s tariffs remained obvious.
Trump, Carney faceoff in Oval Office leaves gaping differences on tariffs, 51st state
(AP) … Carney later described his conversation with Trump as “wide ranging” and “constructive,” telling reporters that the prospect is there for positive negotiations but there would be “zigs and zags.” Carney said he stressed the value that Canadian companies and factories created for U.S. automakers while stressing that it was unfair to assume one meeting could resolve any differences.
“I wouldn’t have expected white smoke coming out of this meeting,” Carney said after the Tuesday meeting, referencing the signal that a new pope has been selected.
Carney said that he privately asked Trump to stop calling Canada the 51st state during their meeting. But when pressed on how Trump responded, the Canadian prime minister said: “He’s the president. He’s his own person.”
Handshakes, friendship and ‘never, never, never, never, never’: five takeaways from Carney-Trump meeting
In the much anticipated first encounter, a positive tone held despite the Canadian leader’s rebuff against US advances
(The Guardian) 1. Canada is not for sale
“Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign … it’s not for sale,” said Carney. “Won’t be for sale, ever.” …

5 May
Trump says he doesn’t know why Carney wants to meet as business experts raise caution about trade deal
U.S. President Donald Trump says he does not know what to expect from his Tuesday meeting with Mark Carney or why the Prime Minister wants to see him.
(Globe & Mail) In comments less than 24 hours before the pair sit down for their first tête-à-tête, Mr. Trump adopted a nonchalant air.
“I don‘t know. He’s coming to see me. I’m not sure what he wants to see me about, but I guess he wants to make a deal. Everybody does,” the President said Monday in the Oval Office when asked what he anticipated for the meeting. “They all want to make a deal because we have something that they all want.”
Carney heads to Washington, D.C. ahead of Trump meeting: PMO
Carney, in his first comments Friday following the election, said it was “important to distinguish want from reality,” adding that the upcoming talks would be difficult.
“I’m not pretending those discussions will be easy,” he said. “They won’t proceed in a straight line. There will be zigs and zags, ups and downs. But as I said in my remarks, I will fight for the best deal for Canada and only accept the best deal for Canada and take as much time as necessary.”

Northeastern governors look to sidestep Trump administration in Canadian trade war
Governors from six states, including Massachusetts and New York, invited the premiers of six Canadian provinces for a meeting in Boston in the coming weeks.
Northeastern governors are looking to bolster their economic ties with America’s northern neighbor and counteract the Trump administration’s combative trade policies.
In a letter sent Monday, governors from six states, including Massachusetts and New York, invited the premiers of six Canadian provinces for a meeting in Boston in the coming weeks.
“As Governors of New England, we want to keep open lines of communication and cooperation and identify avenues to overcome the hardship of these uninvited tariffs and help our economies endure,” the letter, led by Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, reads. “As we continue to navigate this period of great uncertainty, we are committed to preserving cross border travel, encouraging tourism in our respective jurisdictions, and promoting each other’s advantages and amenities.”

2 May
Canada’s Mark Carney on Getting Ready to Meet Trump (video)
(Bloomberg Television) Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday to discuss trade issues and the broader relationship between Canada and the US. Carney spoke about the upcoming meeting.

30 April
Canada will deal with Trump ‘on our terms’, Carney tells BBC
Carney said talks with Trump would be “on our terms, not on their terms”.
“There is a partnership to be had, an economic and security partnership,” he said.
“It’s going to be a very different one than we’ve had in the past.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed he will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday [7 May].
Carney said he’s anticipating “difficult, but constructive” talks in Washington.
Trump has repeatedly voiced a desire for Canada to become the “51st state” and has said that the United States acquiring Greenland is a matter of “national security.” He has also made noise about taking back the Panama Canal.
These dreams of expansion are a transparent effort by Trump to cement some kind of legacy for himself and distract from his utterly failed domestic agenda.
On whether or not he’ll visit the White House, Carney said “it depends.”
“I’ve been to Washington. I’ve been to the White House. I’ve seen it. I’ve seen all the monuments. I’ve been to Florida even,” he said. “So I’m not going as a tourist. I’ll go when there’s a serious discussion to be had.”