Wednesday Night #2253

The news of former President Biden’s prostate cancer diagnosis has generated a reaction ranging from widespread expressions of sympathy and a reassessment of his failing health and mental acuity, analysis of previous criticisms, to inevitable sniping from the MAGA faction.
Most of the political coverage ignores the facts raised by the NYT in Prostate Experts See Familiar Scenario in Biden’s Cancer Diagnosis – …doctors say that even men who test diligently may develop an aggressive cancer after none was found at a recent checkup.
Published on May 20, Original Sin –President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again, co-written by Jake Tapper and Axios journalist Alex Thompson, is the last of three books on Joe Biden’s presidency that jointly paint a devastating portrait of an ailing, geriatric leader surrounded by mendacious aides and grasping family members. See Long reads for All the President’s Enablers
Meanwhile if you are wondering how the US is faring under the current administration, you need only read Heather Cox Richardson May 20, 2025 “Administration officials today seemed to illustrate their utter disregard for the work their jobs require and their refusal to govern for Americans. Instead, they seem to see their offices as ways to get access to large amounts of money and power they can use to impose their will on the country.”

After all the boasting that he would solve the international problems as soon as inaugurated, the Trump balloon has been leaking hot air at an astounding rate
EU, Russia, Ukraine
Once again, the Bully in the White House has failed.
Putin-Trump Call Fails to Yield Breakthrough on Ukraine
President Trump backed away from threats intended to press Russia for a cease-fire in Ukraine, instead focusing on the possibility of future economic cooperation with Moscow after phone calls with the leaders of both warring nations. Mr. Trump emphasized that Russia and Ukraine negotiate directly, a functional endorsement of the position of Russia’s president.
Gwynne Dyer: Can Ukraine survive Trump?
The war between Ukraine and Russia is “almost the First World War in miniature,” writes Dyer, who believes Ukraine needs to hang on longer
Trump backs off ceasefire after call with Putin, letting fighting rage on
After Trump’s third phone call with Putin since his inauguration, it appears there will be no letup in fighting and less U.S. pressure on Moscow
European unity against Putin in peril if Trump moves to ease sanctions
EU’s hopes of US increasing pressure on Kremlin have been dashed. … Trump did not follow through on previous threats to introduce “large-scale” sanctions on Russia if there was no ceasefire, but instead extolled the prospect of restarting trade with Moscow.
U.S.-Israel
The president’s Middle East tour made one thing clear – he will betray his one-time ally in a heartbeat. He is already doing it
U.S.-China relations
By eroding US soft power, Trump is ceding the contest to China
Trump 2.0 has boosted China’s charm offensive, making its assertive foreign policy and unapologetic authoritarianism look less threatening …since US President Donald Trump’s return to office, the balance of international attraction has been shifting remarkably in Beijing’s favour.
Trump says Russian buildup near Finland, Norway poses no threat
Trump added that he sees no threat in Russia’s actions in northern Europe overall, nor is he worried about the concentration of Russian troops near the Finnish and Norwegian borders.
and creating new problems
Trump Lectures South African President in Televised Oval Office Confrontation
President Trump showed a video and leafed through printouts of what he said was evidence of racial persecution of white South Africans. The country’s president tried to correct the record.

European elections
Centrist Nicuşor Dan on course to win Romanian election with 99% of votes counted
Centrist Warsaw mayor narrowly ahead in first round of Polish presidential race
Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by populist right, both claim about 30% of vote as runoff looms
Poland votes for a new president Sunday as worries grow about the future
Centre-right party wins Portuguese election as far right makes record gains
Incumbent Democratic Alliance, led by caretaker prime minister Luís Montenegro, falls well short of majority

European unity against Putin in peril if Trump moves to ease sanctions
Jennifer Rankin in Brussels
EU’s hopes of US increasing pressure on Kremlin have been dashed, and Hungary could yet make situation worse
European leaders – who have promised to impose “massive” new sanctions on Russia after Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire in Ukraine – face the prospect of having to introduce their planned expansion of economic restrictions on the Russian war economy without the United States.

Post-Brexit UK/EU
The UK and the EU hail a new chapter as they sign fresh deals 5 years after Brexit
On Monday, Britain and the EU sealed fresh agreements on defense cooperation and easing trade flows at their first formal summit since Brexit.

Israel/Gaza/Hamas
Israel Faces Global Isolation Over War on Gaza
An international consensus is emerging that Israel’s war against Hamas — its assaults on Gaza and withholding of aid — must stop.
Criticism of Israeli actions by allies is increasing and Netanyahu says Canada, U.K., France offering ‘huge prize’ to Hamas with Gaza letter
-Netanyahu vows to ‘take control’ of Gaza as UK, France and Canada threaten action against Israel
Key allies call escalation ‘egregious’ and promise ‘concrete’ response if Israel does not end renewed offensive and allow aid into strip
U.S. Ambassador Huckabee is ‘outraged’ at European leaders for condemning Israel – not the role of an ambassador to be outraged!
-UN humanitarian chief has defended using the term “genocide” to describe what aid workers are trying to prevent in Gaza, saying the world should not make the same mistakes seen in past violations of international law, when it wasn’t “called out soon enough.”
From the Wall Street Journal this week, a revelation that may or may not affect the current actions aimed at reducing Israeli threats to Gaza’s existence.
Hamas Wanted to Torpedo Israel-Saudi Deal With Oct. 7 Attacks, Documents Reveal (See Long reads)
(WSJ/MSN) Top leaders of Hamas launched their Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel aiming to torpedo peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, according to minutes of a high-level meeting in Gaza that Israel’s military said it discovered in a tunnel beneath the enclave.

Canada
A bit of to-ing and fro-ing over when the Carney government might present a budget. After Finance Minister Champagne said there would be a this Fall, Mr. Carney came out a few days later to say there would be a budget this Fall. Andrew Coyne’s take The only thing worse than not having a budget is having one.
Five big moves Mark Carney must make to secure Canada’s place in the world
Kyle Matthews writes in Policy Options “The new government must act urgently to modernize defence, rebuild diplomacy and project Canada’s influence in a turbulent world.
As re-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet take the reins in Ottawa at a time of rising global instability, his government must urgently rethink how it defends Canada’s sovereignty, deepens its alliances and projects its influence in a world increasingly being shaped by authoritarian aggression and technological disruption.”
At home, Prime Minister, please pay attention to the needs of a group largely abandoned by the Trudeau Liberals:
Quebec Anglos are a ‘distinct society’
In his op-ed in the Hill Times, Andrew Caddell argues that English-speaking Quebecers form a distinct society within Quebec, shaped by a unique blend of English and French language and culture. Drawing on personal anecdotes and examples of everyday bilingualism, he highlights how Anglo Quebecers are deeply integrated into Quebec society and share common values and institutions with their francophone counterparts. Despite facing nationalist rhetoric and restrictive language laws, many anglophones remain committed to Quebec, seeing themselves not as outsiders but as essential contributors to its identity. Caddell calls for greater recognition and respect for this community, emphasizing cooperation over division.

It seems that every week there is a new addition to the Montreal Institute for Global Security team. This week, Kyle Matthews welcomed Zahra Hassan Doualeh, who joins MIGS as a Programme Officer, “contributing to the development and implementation of a national project focused on empowering Canadian youth to build resilience against online hate.”

Last week, when Guy Stanley joined us, he gave us the sad news that Dian Cohen, his friend of many years and co-author of No small change : succeeding in Canada’s new economy and Class Action: Making the Future Work – Now
See Dian Cohen on the new economy
This week, we learned through tributes on LinkedIn from Eleni Bakopanos and Maryam Monsef of the death of Dr. Betsy McGregor, a dear friend of Guy, whom David and I first met at Guy and Yvette’s wedding. She was a remarkable individual, blessed with intelligence, energy and a sunny outlook on life. A great loss.

Varia
Were we the only people who did not understand the fuss over 86?
What does ‘8647’ really mean? Not what Trump’s supporters are saying
James Comey is accused of calling for Trump’s death with seashell picture spelling out 8647. What it really stands for….
Trump’s actions are pushing thousands of experts to flee government
The U.S. DOGE Service’s push for early retirement and deferred resignation is leading to a federal brain drain, longtime staffers fear.
Sesame Street will move to Netflix, but keeps its longtime home on PBS
New episodes of the show will air on Netflix, PBS and the PBS Kids app starting later this year
Netflix has thrown Sesame Street a safety net with a new streaming deal that offers the popular children’s staple a broad reach while keeping it on its long-standing home, PBS, at the same time, the companies announced Monday.
Starting later this year, new episodes will run on Netflix, PBS and the PBS Kids app on the same day. No specific premiere date was immediately announced. Select past episodes will also be available on Netflix worldwide.
The change for the more than 50-year-old show comes after Warner Bros. Discovery — which had aired the show since 2016 — last year decided not to renew its deal for new episodes that air on HBO and Max, though episodes will remain there until 2027.
Starmer’s EU reset triggers outbreak of Brexit derangement syndrome.
Critics were voicing their opinions long before even an outline of a deal was announced
Trump’s actions are pushing thousands of experts to flee government
The U.S. DOGE Service’s push for early retirement and deferred resignation is leading to a federal brain drain, longtime staffers fear.

PM Mark Carney‘s trip to Rome for Pope Leo’s inaugural mass has generated a number of -in our view, unnecessary- articles speculating what influence his Catholic faith may have on his governance of the country. He is hardly the first Catholic PM! And if he is in tune with Pope Leo, so much the better.
Vatican offers to host Ukraine-Russia talks after ‘tragic’ Istanbul meeting

How did we miss the turmoil at Davos?
World Economic Forum Scrambles to Find a New Leader
Klaus Schwab’s abrupt departure from the World Economic Forum is said to have complicated carefully laid plans to persuade Christine Lagarde to take the helm in a seamless transition.
Schwab, 87, founded and led the storied organization for more than half a century. He had initially intended to stay on until early 2027, the same year Lagarde’s term as European Central Bank president comes to an end. But he left last month amid accusations of financial misconduct and a clash with the Forum’s directors.

Business/Economy
Peter Berezin writes on 15 May
Reducing Our 12-Month US Recession Probability From 75% To 60%
• The Trump administration’s decision to pare back tariffs on China came faster than we had expected, justifying a lower probability of a US recession.
• Nevertheless, we continue to see a recession as our base case. Although tariffs have come down, the effective US tariff rate is still the highest since the 1930s. The US economy was also on a weaker footing than widely believed even before the trade war began.
• Stocks are not pricing in much recession risk, which suggests that a cautious stance towards equities is warranted.
• We do not have a strong view on bond duration at the moment. While a recession would normally cause bond yields to fall, we worry that the prospect of even more unfunded tax cuts could prompt the bond vigilantes to emerge.
Bottom Line: Although tariffs have receded, they are still high enough to weigh on growth, especially given that underlying economic momentum in the US was weakening going into 2025. The possibility of a fiscal crisis only adds to the risks.
Canadian Tire to take over Hudson’s Bay’s iconic stripes, logos
Canadian Tire set to pay $30 million to buy department store’s intellectual property
Rio Tinto to Invest Up to $1.2 Billion in Quebec Power Plant
And for Peter Frise,Richard Conrad et al:
The great battery race: China and the U.S. compete over the future of EVs
Lithium-ion batteries were invented in the United States. But years ago, as part of a push toward electric vehicles, China took the lead in mass-producing them.
Now there’s a great race underway to see who will dominate the future of EV batteries.
Honda to scale back its investment in electric vehicles, focus on hybrids
Honda Motor said on Tuesday that it was scaling back its investment in electric vehicles given slowing demand and would be focusing on hybrids, now far more in favour, with a slew of revamped models.

Events
Monday 26-Tuesday 27 May
Royal Visit, Throne Speech, Opening of Parliament

Thursday, 5 June
5 to 7 p.m
Reflections on Canada’s Indo-Pacific Relations –
680, rue Sherbrooke ouest, salle 1041
CIC Montreal
a conversation among experts on the issues in Canada’s trade, political and security relations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. As Canada’s foreign and trade policies are on the cusp of major changes, our speakers offer an analysis of challenges and opportunities in this critically-important region. Admission is free, but we request that you register in advance at the attached link. The discussion will be in English.
https://www.eventbrite.ca/e/reflections-on-canadas-indo-pacific-relations-tickets-1368492851959?aff=ebdssbdestsearch

Saturday, June 7, at 7 p.m. EST (?sic)
Telecast across CNN properties.
George Clooney’s Broadway Play Will Be Broadcast Live on CNN
On Saturday, June 7, Good Night, and Good Luck, the critically-acclaimed new play by George Clooney and Grant Heslov, that has shattered box office records and is now nominated for five 2025 Tony Awards, will air its penultimate performance at Broadway’s Winter Garden Theatre live on CNN. This announcement marks a historic Broadway first: never before has a live performance of a play ever been televised. …George Clooney makes his Broadway debut as Edward R. Murrow, showcasing his legendary, history-altering, on-air showdown with Senator Joseph McCarthy. As McCarthyism casts a shadow over America, Murrow and his news team choose to confront the growing tide of paranoia and propaganda, even if it means turning the federal government and a worried nation against them. The critically-acclaimed production of Good Night, and Good Luck closes its theatrical run with a matinee performance on Sunday, June 8.

Varia
U.S. Formally Accepts Luxury Jet From Qatar for Trump
The Air Force has been asked to figure out a way to upgrade it so it can be put into use as a new Air Force One for the president.
For more, see Long reads below
Man attempting to swim around Martha’s Vineyard, where “Jaws” was filmed, hopes to change minds about sharks
An endurance athlete is hoping to change minds about sharks by swimming around Martha’s Vineyard, just in time for the 50th anniversary of “Jaws.”
British-South African swimmer Lewis Pugh was the first person to complete a long-distance swim in every ocean of the world — and has taken on extreme conditions everywhere from Mount Everest to the Arctic. … For his swim around Martha’s Vineyard in 47-degree water he will wear just trunks, a cap and goggles
Easily distracted? How to improve your attention span
One body of decades-long research found the average person’s attention span for a single screen is 47 seconds, down from 2.5 minutes in 2004. The 24/7 news cycle, uncertainty about the state of the world and countless hours of screen time don’t help, experts say.
A shifting attention is an evolutionary feature, not a bug. Our brains are hardwired to quickly filter information and hone in on potential threats or changes in what’s happening around us.

Long reads/audio
Hamas Wanted to Torpedo Israel-Saudi Deal With Oct. 7 Attacks, Documents Reveal
(WSJ/MSN) Top leaders of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched their Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel aiming to torpedo peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, according to minutes of a high-level meeting in Gaza that Israel’s military said it discovered in a tunnel beneath the enclave.
All the President’s Enablers
Three books on Joe Biden’s presidency jointly paint a devastating portrait of an ailing, geriatric leader surrounded by mendacious aides and grasping family members.

The Inside Story of Trump’s Search for a New Air Force One
Qatar had been trying to sell off a luxury jet for years, with no luck. Then President Trump’s team set its sights on it.
… After Mr. Trump looked at the plane, one thing was clear: It was love at first sight…
To the Contrary With Charlie Sykes
On today’s “To the Contrary” Podcast, I’m joined by The Atlantic’s David Frum. We discuss the staggering corruption and cluelessness behind Donald Trump’s acceptance of a $400 million Qatari jet—complete with a backstory of diplomatic white elephants and Vegas-style décor. And we explore how Trump’s second term is shaping up to be less about governance and more about retirement planning, international grifting, and institutional erosion.
The first 10 minutes expose the epic back story of the Qatari gift plane that would be funny, if not true.