Europe & EU August 12 2025-

6 July
EU Commission considers supercharged department for foreign relations
Commission looks at ways to maximize its external policy reach.
(Politico Eu) The idea — one of several options being considered to boost the Commission’s external-facing policy units — would be to maximize the EU executive’s external-policy reach, in keeping with the aims of a “large-scale review” being led by Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin.
A supercharged department for external relations could include elements, in whole or in part, of DG TRADE or DG MENA, the department in charge of Middle East and North Africa policy. Other options under consideration include reorganizing departments along geographic or thematic lines, according to the officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss confidential plans.

20 June
Ten years on, has the Brexit vote helped or hindered the EU?
Some said Britain’s departure would bring down the union, but countries are still queueing to join
(The Guardian)…Despite heated talk of Frexit, Nexit and Swexit, however, not a single country followed the UK. “Brexit changed the EU in one fundamental way,” Michael Roth, Germany’s former Europe minister, told the Guardian. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning.
“The Brexit experience was so damaging, so costly, so complicated, so complex, that the appetite for that across the EU is very, very, very, very, very, very little.”

19 June
EU still split over sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers
(Politico Eu) While some EU leaders wanted Brussels to sanction Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, there wasn’t enough support for the move during Friday’s debate at the summit.
In a classic example of EU fudge, the summit conclusions say only that “the Council will continue examining measures” to target the “extremist ministers inciting and promoting human rights abuses.”
Two EU diplomats said several countries were against the move, with some raising the prospect that hitting the far-right ministers with sanctions would help boost their support in Israel’s upcoming election. Israelis will head to the polls before Oct. 27.

18 June
EU leaders clash on Russia, €2T budget
From outreach to Moscow to quibbling over money, governments largely put off the biggest decisions.
(Politico Eu) Leaders have finished their summit.
Countries failed to make headway on the bloc’s next seven-year budget, worth €2 trillion, with European Council President António Costa tasking Ireland — which will be helming the rotating Council of the EU presidency from July — with coming up with new EU-wide taxes to fund the cashpot.
Likewise, capitals postponed the decision of whether to sanction far-right Israeli ministers as the initiative fell short of the backing it needed.
Migration will be added to the agenda of October’s European Council, two officials said, after a push to return to the issue at leaders’ level by Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen.

16 June
EU and UK announce summit to discuss ‘reset’ in post-Brexit relations
(The Guardian) The EU and the UK have announced they will hold their next summit to discuss the “reset” in relations between London and Brussels on 22 July.
The summit, which will be held in Brussels, has been delayed several times, with talks over a youth mobility scheme allowing under-30s to work, travel or study in each other’s territory deadlocked in recent weeks, fuelling speculation the summit would be postponed until the autumn.
António Costa, the president of the European Council, confirmed the date at the G7 meeting in Evian on Tuesday.
“Close EU-UK cooperation is essential for our shared European security, resilience and prosperity,” he said. “We are working closely together to make our upcoming second summit on 22 July a success.”

2-4 June
EU seeking ways to speed up Western Balkans membership
Kieran Burke with AP, Reuters
(DW) European Council President Antonio Costa said new ways need to be found to speed up Western Balkans membership in the EU. His comments come ahead of the EU-Western Balkans summit that begins in Tivat, Montenegro, on Friday and provides an opportunity for leaders to assess progress on the path to EU membership.
“For us, the enlargement, namely to the Western Balkans, is the most important geopolitical investment that the European Union is doing,” Costa said during a joint press briefing with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade.
Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro have been seeking to join the bloc for some time now but have yet to complete the stringent process.
Is EU membership cool again?
(GZERO media) The European Union is having a moment right now, as a number of countries that once rejected membership are suddenly flirting with the idea. After decades of keeping the bloc at arm’s length, for example, Norway and Iceland are both considering joining. Canada, an ocean away, has forged closer ties to the EU recently. And even the government of the UK, which shocked the bloc — and the world — by leaving the EU10 years ago is now reassessing that move.
Canada, an ocean away, has forged closer ties to the EU recently. And even the government of the UK, which shocked the bloc — and the world — by leaving the EU exactly 10 years ago is now reassessing that move.
… in recent years, two big things have changed.
First, was Russia’s 2022 full scale invasion of Ukraine. The bloc’s response was resounding: it united against the war against their neighbor and invested heavily in its long-dormant military.
Then, US President Donald Trump returned to office with an agenda that felt hostile to Europe. He imposed tariffs on US trade partners and threatened to seize Greenland, inadvertently boosting the bloc’s attractiveness — both for trade and defense purposes — while also halting new US support for Ukraine. China, meanwhile, has emerged as an increasingly stout economic competitor.
Why are countries eyeing EU membership? For some, economic incentives are key. Norway has long opposed EU membership in order to shield its lucrative fishing sector from Brussels bureaucrats. But because the country is part of the European common market, it finds itself in the awkward position of suddenly being subject to fraught EU trade relationships with major partners like the US and China, without having any direct say in them. Being a full member would give Oslo a seat at the table.
Economic issues are also part of the story in the UK, where political turmoil at the top of the Labour Party — partly a result of the economic stagnation that has stymied the country since Brexit — has prompted a reevaluation of cross-channel ties.
For others, such as Iceland, security is the issue. When Trump accidentally confused the small island nation with Greenland at Davos this past winter, Icelandic officials froze in their tracks. The country has no standing military, relying instead on US defense through NATO. But now, Reykjavik is eyeing the EU as a possible provider of defense via the bloc’s little-used mutual defense agreement. Iceland, which like Norway has economic ties to the bloc but no formal membership, is set to hold a referendum this summer on whether to restart accession talks with the bloc.
Meanwhile, in the east, Ukraine and Moldova will begin formal accession talks this month, eyeing membership not only as an economic boon but as a critical security guarantee in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.

16 March
European countries reject Trump’s call for help to reopen strait of Hormuz
Leaders seek a diplomatic solution despite US president’s threat of ‘a very bad future’ for NA unless it provides warships
(The Guardian) EU foreign ministers meeting on Monday decided against extending the remit of their small naval mission in the Red Sea. A proposal to change the mandate of Operation Aspides to help secure the strait drew little enthusiasm from member states, said the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas.
European ministers have said they need to know more about the US’s and Israel’s war aims. The Estonian foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, said US allies in Europe wanted to understand Trump’s “strategic goals. What will be the plan?”
Greece, which provides the headquarters for Operation Aspides, also said on Monday it would not engage in any military operations in the strait….
EU weighs action to keep Strait of Hormuz open
(The World) The European Union is seeking more strategic clarity about the US and Israel’s plans for Iran and when the conflict might end as the bloc weighs whether to send ships to help shore up security in the Persian Gulf.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz critical to Europe?
(Euronews) The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting energy prices for industries and households, but the vital trade passage also accounts for a significant share of fertiliser shipments, threatening long-term food production. Euronews’ explainer goes through the main issues affecting the Strait. …
The Strait is also a key passage for fertilisers into Europe. In addition to handling oil and gas supply, around 13% of global fertiliser exports, according to the United Nations, also pass through the Gulf’s only access to the open ocean — an important contributor to the world’s food production.
“If there’s a lack of fertilisers this year, it’s going to be food deprivation next year,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told reporters ahead of the foreign affairs council today.

Poland is now among the world’s 20 largest economies. How it happened
(AP) — A generation ago, Poland rationed sugar and flour while its citizens were paid one-tenth what West Germans earned. Today, the economy of the country has edged past Switzerland to become the world’s 20th largest with more than $1 trillion in annual output.
It’s a historic leap from the post-Communist ruins of 1989-90 to European growth champion, which economists say has lessons on how to bring prosperity to ordinary people — and that the Trump administration says should be recognized by Poland’s presence at a summit of the Group of 20 leading economies later this year.

24 February
‘Political sabotage’: EU leaders accuse Hungary of undermining support for Ukraine
Viktor Orbán’s government blocks fresh economic measures against Russia on eve of war’s fourth anniversary

22-23 February
EU Warns That Trump’s New Tariff Policy Breaks Trade Agreement
(Bloomberg) A European Union assessment found that President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy will increase levies on some of the bloc’s exports, including cheese and some agricultural products, above the level permitted in their trade agreement.
The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the bloc, told lawmakers Monday that the new global tariff will be added to levies that are already in place, according to Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee. The new cumulative rate means some goods would be above the 15% ceiling the EU and US agreed to in their trade deal.
EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs after Supreme Court ruling: ‘a deal is a deal’
(Reuters) – The European Commission demanded on Sunday that the United States stick to the terms of an EU-U.S. trade deal reached last year, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s global tariffs and he responded with new levies across the board.
After the court struck down Trump’s global tariffs on Friday, the U.S. president announced temporary, across-the-board tariffs of 10%, which he then hiked to 15% a day later.
“The current situation is not conducive to delivering ‘fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial’ transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides” in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year’s trade agreement, the Commission said. “A deal is a deal.”

17 February
Europe Has Received the Message
Without America to rely on, the EU is gearing up to be a global power in its own right.
By Joseph de Weck
(The Atlantic) The European Union is finally on its way to becoming a power in its own right. That’s not because its member countries have suddenly stopped squabbling or its bureaucratic inertia has melted away. It’s because the past four years have produced an unremitting state of crisis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the beginning. Now the imperative comes from Donald Trump’s repositioning of the United States as something close to an antagonist.
Without the guarantee of American cooperation and NATO protection, the EU is newly vulnerable. And in response, in the past year, it has delivered a series of firsts that amount to a quiet revolution in how it exercises power.
… Europe is not yet a fully autonomous power, and it won’t become one tomorrow. But thanks to Trump, a transformation is under way. With each new first, others become thinkable. The decisive question is whether Europe can stay this course. A super-election year looms in 2027, when France, Italy, Spain, and Poland will all hold votes. Victories by the far right—especially in France and Poland—could derail the current trajectory.
Or not: EU approval is at 74 percent, a record high. Young far-right politicians may well understand that returning to the nation-state means choosing powerlessness.

16 February
What next for Greenland and Ukraine? Questions after the Munich security conference
Gathering of world leaders in Germany has disbanded for another year, but many of the issues remain unresolved
(The Guardian) Will Europe ‘wake up’ to a changing world?
After European leaders were left stunned by the US vice-president’s assault on their values in 2025, many came into this year’s conference with a sense of urgency. In the days before the meeting, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said “this must be the moment of awakening. It is time for Europe to wake up.”
Macron and the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, gave speeches at the conference that sought to map a new, independent path for European powers, while striving to maintain the alliance with Washington. Both leaders announced that they had begun talks on a European nuclear deterrent.
On Saturday, the UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, made the case for a closer defence relationship with Europe, saying his country was “not the Britain of the Brexit years”.
After calling Europe a “sleeping giant”, Starmer went on to stress that a closer UK-EU defence relationship did not imply any weakening of the UK-US relationship, or of Nato.
Can the US and Europe remain united?
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, struck a more conciliatory tone than that of Vance in 2025 when he took the stage on Saturday.
“A rift has opened up between Europe and the United States,” Merz said in his speech on Friday.
“The culture war of the Maga movement is not ours. Freedom of speech ends here with us when that speech goes against human dignity and the constitution. We do not believe in tariffs and protectionism, but in free trade,” the German chancellor said, drawing applause.

12-13 February
Merz, Macron eye new European security framework amid US reset
Speech opened Munich Security Conference
Merz warns US cannot go it alone
Rubio also warns of ‘defining moment’ in ties
Comes in wake of moves by Trump to upend global order
Europe seen closing ranks, seeking to become more independent
(Reuters) – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that Berlin had begun talks with France about a European nuclear deterrent, while President Emmanuel Macron said Europe had to become a geopolitical power given the Russian threat would not disappear.
Democrats at Munich security summit to urge Europe to stand up to Trump
European leaders divided over how far to accommodate Trump’s ‘wrecking ball’ politics and foreign policy
(The Guardian) US Democrats will use a security summit this weekend to urge European leaders to stand up to Donald Trump, with the continent divided over how to keep the unpredictable US president on side.
Democrats at the annual Munich Security Conference will include some of Trump’s most outspoken critics, such as the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, the New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Arizona senator Ruben Gallego and the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer.

Europe warily awaits Rubio at Munich Security Conference as Trump roils transatlantic ties
(AP) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading a large U.S. delegation this week to the Munich Security Conference where increasingly nervous European leaders are hoping for at least a brief reprieve from President Donald Trump’s often inconsistent policies and threats that have roiled transatlantic relations and the post-World War II international order.
A year after Vice President JD Vance stunned assembled dignitaries at the same venue with a verbal assault on many of America’s closest allies in Europe, accusing them of imperiling Western civilization with left-leaning domestic programs and not taking responsibility for their own defense, Rubio plans to take a less contentious but philosophically similar approach when he addresses the annual gathering of world leaders and national security officials Saturday, U.S. officials say.

12 February
Munich Security Conference Chair: a ‘wrecking-ball’ is smashing the international order’
The 2026 Munich Security Conference (13 – 15 February) is taking place in extremely difficult times. In many Western societies, political forces have gained influence that “favour destruction over reform,” the report, which is released in advance, states

11 February
Carney cancels trip to Munich, sending ministers to security conference in his place
(CTV) Three federal cabinet ministers, who were already planning to accompany Carney on the trip, will still be attending the conference: National Defence Minister David McGinty, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, and Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez Is Rewriting the Political Playbook
He’s a different kind of European leader
Mark Leon Goldberg
(Global Dispatches) Donald Trump doesn’t much like Pedro Sánchez — and the Spanish prime minister is perfectly fine with that. Unlike other European leaders who reflexively genuflect to the American president, Pedro Sánchez stands apart for his willingness to confront Trump—not for its own sake, but in service of a theory of politics that diverges sharply from many of his European counterparts. …
In today’s interview, [with Dave Keating, the Brussels correspondent for France 24] we discuss Pedro Sánchez’s unique standing in European politics, why he’s sometimes shunned by other leaders in Brussels, and whether his experiment in regularizing half a million undocumented migrants can actually succeed.

2 February
Europe begins its slow retreat from US dependence
The EU aims to reduce reliance on America in areas such as technology, energy, payments and defense. That will take some time.
(Politico Eu) European governments and corporations are racing to reduce their exposure to U.S. technology, military hardware and energy resources as transatlantic relations sour.
For decades, the EU relied on NATO guarantees to ensure security in the bloc, and on American technology to power its business. Donald Trump’s threats to take over Greenland, and aggressive comments about Europe by members of his administration, have given fresh impetus to European leaders’ call for “independence.”
“If we want to be taken seriously again, we will have to learn the language of power politics,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week.
From orders banning civil servants from using U.S.-based videoconferencing tools to trade deals with countries like India to a push to diversify Europe’s energy suppliers, efforts to minimize European dependence on the U.S. are gathering pace. EU leaders warn that transatlantic relations are unlikely to return to the pre-Trump status quo.
EU officials stress that such measures amount to “de-risking” Europe’s relationship with the U.S., rather than “decoupling” — a term that implies a clean break in economic and strategic ties.
… Europe remains heavily reliant on U.S. military capabilities, most notably in its support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. But some Europeans are now openly talking about the price of reducing exposure to the U.S. — and saying it’s manageable.
The mood shift is clearest when it comes to technology, where European reliance on platforms such as X, Meta and Google has long troubled EU voters, as evidenced by broad support for the bloc’s tech legislation.
“It’s very clear that Europe is having our independence moment,” EU tech czar Henna Virkkunen told a POLITICO conference last week. “During the last year, everybody has really realized how important it is that we are not dependent on one country or one company when it comes to some very critical technologies.”
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in late January, German entrepreneur Anna Zeiter announced the launch of a Europe-based social media platform called W that could rival Elon Musk’s X, which has faced fines for breaching the EU’s content moderation rules. W plans to host its data on “European servers owned by European companies” and limits its investors to Europeans, Zeiter told Euronews. …

26 January
Trade Commissioner says ‘mother of all deals’ will open India market for EU companies
(Euronews) The European Union is pushing to open India’s economy to European companies as Brussels moves into the final stretch of negotiations on a long-awaited free-trade agreement with New Delhi, EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič told Euronews.
European Union trade chief Maroš Šefčovič said a trade deal with India is “very close” as the bloc aims to reduce steep tariffs for European companies in one of the fastest growing, but heavily protected, markets in the world.

23 January
‘We Are Learning to Bully Back’
How Europe got Trump to cave on Greenland
By Isaac Stanley-Becker and Jonathan Lemire
(The Atlantic) After years of insults and ultimatums aimed by Trump at Europe, the fiasco arising from his far-fetched campaign to acquire Greenland has undermined America’s relationships with some of its richest and most powerful allies—perhaps permanently. One senior European diplomat told us about a “significant and probably irreversible rupture” between Europe and the United States. Another official said that European countries are continuing to compile lists of sectors in which they could create leverage and “hit the Americans if they try something like this again.” Several officials told us there was renewed talk of strengthening Europe’s nuclear arsenal, currently maintained by only France and Britain, to guarantee protection outside the U.S. umbrella. These people, like others we interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to address matters candidly.
…[Trump] threatened to impose a 10 percent import tax on goods from the eight European countries, beginning in February.
The European Union responded swiftly, reviving plans to enact nearly €100 billion in tariffs prepared last year but suspended until February. France also pushed for an extraordinary measure that would have limited U.S. access to Europe’s internal market. Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, signaled that it was open to the so-called trade bazooka. In diplomatic cables, member states warned that the sovereignty of the EU was at stake. There was initially fear that Italy, where senior officials had derided the move to send soldiers to Greenland, might be a holdout. But European diplomats told us that timely statements from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored that the bloc would respond as a whole. They also said that simultaneous European coordination about how to respond to Trump’s invitation to his Board of Peace—a minuscule number of EU members signed up—reinforced solidarity.

Moldova’s leader considers whether independence is still worth it
(GZERO media) …as the war in Ukraine grinds on, the president of Moldova, Kyiv’s southwest neighbor, is suggesting a merger with Romania in hopes of blunting Russian pressure.
During an interview earlier this month, President Maia Sandu said she would vote for unification with neighboring Romania, a European Union and NATO member, if a referendum were held.
Sandu, for her part, has acknowledged that a merger with Romania is unlikely because it lacks broad support at home. But the suggestion itself reflects a growing fear that Moldova will be crushed under Moscow’s pressure. Wedged between Ukraine and Romania and lacking NATO protection, the country of roughly 2.4 million people is racing to anchor itself in the EU. Sandu has set her sights on joining the bloc by 2030 as an independent state, but warned that it was becoming “more and more difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy, as a sovereign country, and of course to resist Russia.”

19-20 January
Europe condemns Trump’s ‘new colonialism’ as Greenland crisis grows
US president says there is ‘no going back’ on goal of controlling Arctic territory as Emmanuel Macron leads European resistance
After weeks of aggressive threats by Trump to seize the vast Arctic island, which is a largely autonomous part of Denmark, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Tuesday he preferred “respect to bullies” and the “rule of law to brutality”.
Macron told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that now was “not a time for new imperialism or new colonialism”, criticising the “useless aggressivity” of Trump’s pledge to levy tariffs on countries that opposed a US takeover of Greenland.
The US was seeking to “weaken and subordinate Europe” by demanding “maximum concessions” and imposing tariffs that were “fundamentally unacceptable – even more so when they are used as leverage against territorial sovereignty”, he said, wearing sunglasses because of an eye condition.
Trump Is Pushing the U.S.-Europe Alliance Onto a Precipice
As President Trump tries to coerce European leaders over Greenland, they are pondering the unthinkable: Is an 80-year-old alliance doomed?
(NYT) On Saturday, Mr. Trump said he would raise tariffs on several European countries unless they let him acquire Greenland
What happens to an 80-year-old diplomatic alliance when its leading power threatens a military invasion of one member, wages economic war on the others and vows to cultivate political and cultural resistance to their governments?
Is the alliance doomed?
That question is being asked in capitals across Europe as leaders rush to respond to President Trump’s rapidly escalating campaign to acquire Greenland over the objections of the people who live there. At issue most urgently is whether resisting Mr. Trump’s territorial ambitions risks damaging Europe’s relationship with the United States beyond repair.
Leaders from across Europe are expected to gather in Brussels this week to present a united response to Mr. Trump’s provocations. Veteran observers of European politics said the alliance between Europe and the United States that formed in the aftermath of World War II had already been fundamentally altered.

13 January
The Czech Republic’s new government, led by populist Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, was set to face a mandatory confidence vote in Parliament on its agenda, which aims to steer the country away from supporting Ukraine and rejecting some key European Union policies. The debate in the 200-seat lower house of Parliament, where the coalition has a majority of 108 seats, began Tuesday. Every new administration must win the vote to govern. The political comeback of Babiš and his new alliance with two small-government newcomers are expected to significantly redefine the nation’s foreign and domestic policies. Unlike the previous pro-Western government, Babiš has rejected any financial aid for Ukraine and guarantees for EU loans to the country fighting the Russian invasion, joining the ranks of Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia.

9 January
E.U. and South America to Form Free-Trade Zone With 700 Million People
(NYT) The agreement represents a push for deeper global cooperation, in contrast to the United States’ turning to coercion in its dealings with other countries.
EU states back controversial Mercosur deal with Latin American countries
Agreement after 25 years of negotiations prompts farmers to block roads in Paris, Brussels and Warsaw
(The Guardian) European Union member states have backed the biggest ever free trade agreement with a group of Latin American countries, ending 25 years of negotiations but stoking further tensions with farmers and environmentalists around the bloc.
The contentious Mercosur deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay prompted immediate protests in Poland, France, Greece and Belgium, with farmers blocking key roads in Paris, Brussels and Warsaw.
Opposition parties in France from the far left and the far right also seized on the deal, agreed in principle on Friday, to try to topple Emmanuel Macron’s government with a motion tabled for a vote of no confidence.
The member state approvals end months of wrangling in Brussels and a last-minute hitch before Christmas when Italy’s opposition threatened to collapse the deal.
France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary voted against while Belgium abstained. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, long seen as a key vote, backed it, allowing the landmark deal to be adopted under qualified majority voting rules.
The European parliament must approve the deal to bring it into force, but as trade falls within the exclusive competence of the European Commission, its head, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to travel to Paraguay on Monday to formally sign the agreement.

2025

17-19 December
Ukraine deal: EU leaders agree €90bn loan, but without use of frozen Russian assets
Two-year deal will cover most of Ukraine’s needs, but will be secured against EU borrowing rather than Russian assets
EU leaders have pledged a €90bn loan for Ukraine to meet urgent financial needs, but failed to agree on the preferred option for many of securing that loan against Russia’s frozen assets in the bloc.
After talks ended in the early hours of Friday, the president of the European Council, António Costa, told reporters: “We committed and we delivered.” He said EU leaders had approved a decision to make a €90bn loan to Ukraine for the next two years backed by the EU budget, which Kyiv would repay only once Russia pays reparations.
Europe takes control of Ukraine’s future (YouTube)
Ian Bremmer explains a major shift in the Ukraine war: Europe, not the United States, is now driving the strategy.
EU leaders prepare to take unprecedented steps to help Ukraine at a high-stakes summit
(AP) — European Union leaders are about to attempt something they’ve never tried before. The chances of failure are significant. Their actions this week could set dangerous precedents and a wrong move could undermine trust among the bloc’s 27 member countries for years to come.
At a summit starting on Thursday, many of the leaders will press for tens of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets held in Europe to be used to meet Ukraine’s economic and military needs for the next two years.
Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy. The International Monetary Fund estimates that it will require a total of 137 billion euros ($160 billion) in 2026 and 2027. It must get the money by spring. The EU has pledged to come up with the funds, one way or another.
“One thing is very, very clear,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU lawmakers on Wednesday. “We have to take the decision to fund Ukraine for the next two years in this European Council.”
European Council President António Costa, who will chair the summit, has vowed to keep the leaders negotiating until an agreement is reached, even if it takes days.
The European Commission has proposed that the leaders use some of the frozen assets — totaling 210 billion euros ($246 billion) — to underwrite a 90 billion-euro ($105 billion) “reparations loan” to Ukraine. The U.K., Canada and Norway would fill the gap.
The plan is contentious. The European Commission insists that its reasoning and legal basis are sound. But the European Central Bank has warned that international trust in the euro single currency could be damaged, if the leaders are suspected of seizing the assets.
Most of the frozen assets belong to the Russian Central Bank and are held in the financial clearing house Euroclear, which is based in Brussels. Belgium fears Russian reprisals, through the courts or in other more nefarious ways.
Belgian politicians and finance bosses targeted by Russian intelligence over seized assets
Exclusive: Key figures at frozen assets depository among targets of intimidation campaign, say European intelligence agencies
(The Guardian) Belgian politicians and senior finance executives have been subject to a campaign of intimidation orchestrated by Russian intelligence aimed at persuading the country to block the use of €185bn assets for Ukraine, according to European intelligence agencies.
Security officials indicated to the Guardian that there had been deliberate targeting of key figures at Euroclear, the securities depository holding the majority of Russia’s frozen assets, and leaders of the country.

11-15 December
‘Don’t Feed the Pig’: The Anti-Corruption Call That Helped Topple a Government
Mass demonstrations in Bulgaria were spurred by spreading outrage over graft that many say was fueling an authoritarian power grab.
Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Resigns in the Face of Mass Protests
Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, the sixth prime minister in five years, bowed out amid public anger over corruption and democratic dysfunction.
The prime minister, Rosen Zhelyazkov, was the sixth to hold the office in five years, done in like many of his predecessors by political and economic instability. His announcement came minutes before lawmakers were scheduled to vote on a no-confidence motion against his government.
… Tens of thousands of Bulgarians protested over the past month, not only in Sofia but across the country in a rare show of nationwide solidarity. By most accounts, the demonstrators represented a range of ages but included an unusually large number of young people, a demographic not typically associated with active political engagement in Bulgaria.

10 December
It’s official: Trump wants a weaker European Union
Ian Bremmer
The transatlantic relationship isn’t at a crossroads, it’s past one. America’s new National Security Strategy confirms [that] Washington now sees a strong, unified European Union as a problem to be solved, not an ally to be supported.
… The Trump administration’s NSS mentions Europe twice as often as China, America’s principal strategic competitor. Sit with that for a second: a president who campaigned on “peace through strength” has decided Brussels is a bigger problem than Beijing. Another measure of how problematic this document is: the Kremlin endorsed it. If you’re getting kudos from Dmitry Medvedev, you should probably ask yourself whether you’re the baddies.
But President Donald Trump believes that a strong and well-coordinated Europe is bad for America’s interests. He doesn’t like the European Union, in large part because the EU is big and self-confident enough (at least on some issues like European security and digital regulation) to tell the president and his allies things they don’t want to hear. Together, the Europeans match American heft in trade and regulatory power. Its consumer market is larger than America’s. That’s a lot of leverage, and Trump doesn’t like being on the receiving end of it.
What’s most striking to me about this document isn’t any specific policies, but what it reveals about values. Increasingly, the United States and Europe don’t share them. This reflects a change in America far more than a change in Europe. Trump sees a G-Zero world ruled by the law of the jungle, where might makes right and everything can be bought. For all its flaws, institutional quirks, and bureaucratic sclerosis, the European Union stands for something else: rule of law, liberal democracy, human rights, multilateralism.
12 November
Thousands protest in Romania’s capital against government austerity measures
Thousands of protesters marched in Romania’s capital on Wednesday, demanding higher wages, measures to curb inflation and tax reductions for workers as the government pushes on with austerity to tackle the country’s large budget deficit. Protesters gathered outside government headquarters in Bucharest, then marched toward the Palace of Parliament. The National Trade Union Bloc, made up of dozens of professional federations, organized the rally and comes as Romania’s government pursues measures to reduce the budget deficit. It stood at over 9% in 2024 — one of the highest in the 27-nation European Union. Romania has agreed with the EU to reduce the deficit to 8.4% this year. The government austerity measures include tax hikes, public sector wages, pension freezes and cutting public spending and public administration jobs. The bloc later said it had been invited by the ruling parties for discussions. Protesters are also seeking an end to public sector job cuts and intensified efforts to combat tax evasion.

29-30 October
Anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom and the centrist D66 were tied with nearly all votes counted Thursday in the Dutch general election in an unprecedented neck-and-neck race to become the biggest party. The near-total count tallied and published by the Dutch national news agency ANP, and cited by Dutch media, showed each party winning 26 seats in Wednesday’s election. No Dutch election has previously ended with two parties tied for the lead. Wilders’ Party for Freedom is forecast to lose 11 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, while D66 is forecast to gain 17, according to the vote count. Wilders insisted early Thursday that his party, known by its Dutch acronym PVV, should play a leading role in coalition talks if it is the largest. Wilders faces an uphill battle to return to government, however. Mainstream parties, including D66, have ruled out forming a coalition with the PVV, arguing that Wilders’ decision to torpedo the outgoing four-party coalition in June over migration underscored that he is an untrustworthy partner.
Dutch Voters Deliver Major Setback to Far-Right Party of Geert Wilders
A center-left party was poised to become the country’s largest political party, according to exit polls. The anti-immigrant Party for Freedom, led by Mr. Wilders, was expected to lose 12 seats.
With no party winning an outright majority, the next step is for Duch lawmakers to form a coalition, which could take months. It is still unclear who will become the next prime minister, though the leader of D66, Rob Jetten, seemed a likely possibility on Wednesday night

4 October
Populist Babis cruises to Czech election win, will seek support from fringe parties
Nearly complete results show clear ANO win
Former Prime Minister Babis wants one-party government
Will talk to fringe parties including far-right to find majority
Babis opposes EU’s climate, migration policies
Babis would scale back Czech support for Ukraine
(Reuters) – Billionaire Andrej Babis’s ANO party cruised to victory in the Czech Republic’s parliamentary election on Saturday, raising the prospect of a government that would boost Europe’s populist, anti-immigration camp and reduce support for Ukraine.
An ebullient Babis told supporters that ANO would seek a one-party cabinet but would talk with two small parties – including the far-right SPD – for support as his party will lack an outright majority.

Informal meeting of heads of state or government, Copenhagen, 1 October 2025

1 October
Drone wall plan tests Europe’s cohesion
First there was the Russian drone in Poland. Then Romania. Then Russian jets flew into Estonian airspace, while some unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) shut down Denmark’s airports.
In recent weeks, Russian aircraft have been illegally violating European airspace with greater frequency and boldness.
What are the Europeans going to do about it? One possible answer emerged last week, when the European Commission announced it would explore building a so-called “drone wall,” an air defense system involving radars, sensors, and missiles that aims to detect and destroy drones that pass through Europe’s eastern borders.
The idea for a drone wall, though, will test Europe’s – and, more broadly, NATO’s – ability to agree on the system’s costs, deployment, and even its purpose. The subject will be one of the hottest items on the agenda as European Union leaders meet in Copenhagen this week to discuss the continent’s collective defense.
Eurasia Group’s Europe Director Jan Techau said there are a few different paths that Europe could take. It could build a drone wall along NATO’s eastern flank that would involve shooting down UAVs, create a system that merely jams Russian drones to make them inoperable, or simply boost drone defenses as part of a broader effort to update Europe’s air defenses across the continent.

30 September
(Bloomberg Balance of Power newsletter) European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pushed to consolidate power in the European Union’s executive body in recent years, but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz appears to be trying to block those efforts, publicly rebuking his fellow Christian Democrat on issues like trade and climate. Merz wants to revise key EU policies and reassert national power over the Brussels bureaucracy, and plans to make his case to fellow leaders tomorrow at a summit in Copenhagen.

29 September
Moldova’s pro-EU party wins pivotal election in setback for Russia
Pro-Europe PAS clinches surprise majority in key election
Results are a blow to pro-Russian bloc which holds small protest
PAS says Russia tried to meddle in vote; Moscow denies this
EU, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy hail outcome of election
Opposition, Russia say many Moldovans were denied right to vote
(Reuters) – Moldova’s pro-European ruling party won a resounding victory over its Russian-leaning rival in a key parliamentary election, results on Monday showed, in a major boost for the country’s bid to join the European Union and break away from Moscow’s orbit.
The surprisingly strong performance on Sunday by President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) against the Patriotic Bloc was a relief for the government and its EU partners, who accused Moscow of seeking to influence the vote.
Bordering Ukraine and Romania, Moldova is a strategic hotspot in Europe
Moldova borders southwestern Ukraine, making it a perfect base for Russia to launch attacks into Ukraine, and also as a base for possibly launching drone incursions into the EU, explains FRANCE 24’s Philip Turle. Its strategic location makes Sunday’s election results one to watch in eastern and western European capitals.

Environmental damage is putting European way of life at risk, says report
EU officials warn climate breakdown and wildlife loss ‘are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy’
Ajit Niranjan
(The Guardian) The European way of life is being jeopardised by environmental degradation, a report has found, with EU officials warning against weakening green rules.
The continent has made “important progress” in cutting planet-heating pollution, according to the European Environment Agency, but the death of wildlife and breakdown of the climate are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy.
Europe’s environment and climate: knowledge for resilience, prosperity and sustainability
The main report provides an integrated narrative, examining the central and vital role that the climate and natural environment play in ensuring health, resilience and prosperity for people, anchored in the EU’s vision for a sustainable Europe by 2050.

28 September
Denmark bans drone flights as EU leaders prepare to descend on Copenhagen
Suspected Russian involvement in the drone flights that have dogged Denmark in the past week has authorities on high alert.
(Politico Eu) Denmark will close its airspace to civilian drones this week following disturbances near military bases on Friday and at civilian airports last week.
With the European Council meeting in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss defense and Ukraine, followed by a European Political Community gathering in the city the following day, authorities have acted to safeguard both events.

15 September
Trump has a list of demands for Europe. We rated his chances of success.
From facing down Hungary and Slovakia to taking on Turkey and China, meeting the U.S. president’s requests will be challenging.
(Politico Eu) If Donald Trump is going to slap sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, there are a few things he’d like his European allies to do first.
In a social media post this weekend, the U.S. president said he’d be ready to “go” when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. He also said countries belonging to the Western military alliance should place tariffs on China of between 50 percent and 100 percent until the end of the war.
The demand follows a visit to Brussels by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, in which Trump’s envoy urged the EU to wean itself off Russian energy, and a lopsided trade deal in July in which the bloc pledged to buy $750 billion of U.S. oil and gas by the end of his term.

8-9 September
2025 Strategic Foresight Report
(European Commission) The world has changed dramatically in the last few years. We are seeing the erosion of the international rules-based order, the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are worsening faster than expected, and security becoming a central focus in all policies. In addition, we are facing intersecting EU-specific challenges. The EU has shown strength, unity and transformative resilience in responding to recent crises. However, the scale and complexity of the challenges ahead require a proactive and forward-looking approach. 2025 Strategic Foresight Report presents “Resilience 2.0”, an approach to ensuring the EU thrives in turbulent times through 2040 and beyond. It builds on the recent European Preparedness
Rules-based world order is dead, EU to concede
(Politico Eu) “A return to the previous status quo seems unlikely,” EU executive concludes in first year of Trump’s second term as U.S. president.
The international world order is beyond repair and Europe should adapt to the law of the jungle — or else come up with new rules.
That’s the bleak message the European Commission is set to give on Tuesday in a text detailing major challenges ahead. “We are witnessing the erosion of the international rules-based order,” several drafts of its annual Strategic Foresight Report, seen by POLITICO, say.
Trump’s global tariff threats have further undermined the authority of the World Trade Organization.
The EU could be particularly affected by this development. Key features of the bloc, such as its internal market, trade flows, international partnerships, and technical standards, all depend on a functioning multilateral system.

1 September
Costa breaks ranks on EU-US trade deal, fires warning shot at Trump
The European Council president appears to admit the war in Ukraine was a factor in accepting the bloc’s lopsided pact with Washington.
“We certainly do not celebrate the return of tariffs. But escalating tensions with a key ally over tariffs, while our Eastern border is under threat, would have been an imprudent risk,” Costa said in a keynote speech at the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia on Monday.
“Stabilizing transatlantic relations and ensuring U.S. engagement in Ukraine’s security has been a top priority,” he added.
29 July
EU-US trade deal explained

12 August
19 EU countries condemn Israel’s ‘restrictive’ aid rules in Gaza
Statement, also signed by countries including Canada, Japan and the U.K., ramps up pressure on Israel over starvation in Gaza
“The humanitarian suffering in Gaza has reached unimaginable levels. Famine is unfolding before our eyes,” said the statement, signed by 19 EU foreign ministers, as well as those of fellow European countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, alongside Australia, Canada, Japan and the U.K. “Urgent action is needed now to halt and reverse starvation.”