Gulf War III — expansion and geopolitical ramifications September 2026

Gulf War III — expansion and geopolitical ramifications March-August 2026

13 September
Meeting Between Iran, Arab States Postponed as Mideast Diplomacy Stalls
Talks between the United States and Iran hit a dead end weeks ago, leaving Arab countries struggling to manage their ties to Tehran amid ongoing attacks.
(NYT) Iran and Oman, which border the strait, have been negotiating for weeks over how to reopen the waterway, discussing arrangements that would likely involve some kind of service fee. Before the war, ships could travel freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
Even if a deal is reached, however, Iranian officials have demanded concessions from the United States before ending their blockade, including lifting sanctions on Iran and releasing Iranian assets frozen overseas. The Trump administration is unlikely to take those steps without Iran agreeing to curb its nuclear program.
Yemen has emerged as another front in the fighting. The Iranian-backed Houthi militants there seized the strategic port of Mokha and the island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea last week from the Saudi-backed, internationally-recognized government. They have also attacked Saudi energy sites and sought to blockade Saudi shipping.
Saudi Arabia was forced to shut its East-West Pipeline on Friday after it was targeted by drones from Iraq. That pipeline has been a critical lifeline for the country’s oil exports, after Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. No one took responsibility for the attack, but Iraq has long harbored well-armed militias backed by Iran.
On Sunday, Houthi forces attacked a military site near the southern city of Sharurah, Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, said on social media. Saudi officials said at least two people had been wounded and a mosque was damaged when a projectile fell in a neighboring province, state news media reported.
Iran and its allies have repeatedly attacked neighboring countries during the war, saying they were targeting the U.S. soldiers and military assets they hosted.
But as the conflict has dragged on, Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are having to manage their relationship with a newly emboldened Iran. The aborted attempt at the joint meeting underscored how difficult it is to forge a common approach, however.

Fighting in Yemen intensifies, and Houthis launch more attacks on Saudi Arabia
(AP) — The conflict in Yemen intensified on Sunday, as government forces launched attacks against Iran-backed Houthi rebels along the Red Sea and Houthis fired into neighboring Saudi Arabia, which supports Yemen’s government.
The Yemeni government vowed to send more forces to the Red Sea coast and one official conceded a “painful” defeat last week when Houthis captured the port city of Mokha and an island on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
The escalation – especially Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and its shipping in the Red Sea – adds pressure on global oil supplies and prices, and that could give Iran leverage in its war with the United States.
As Yemen risks descending into another civil war, the United Nations estimated that more than 80,000 people in the impoverished country have been displaced by the fighting since the start of September.
Iran’s Houthi allies capture strategic island on vital oil shipping route
Rampant Yemeni fighters take control of island in narrow point of Bab al-Mandab strait, which Saudi is relying on for oil exports
Yemen’s rampant Houthi forces have captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab strait, expanding their control of the narrow waterway, one of the ​world’s vital shipping routes. …
The Bab al-Mandab strait links Asia to Europe via the Red Sea and Suez canal. Perim island, also known as Mayun, divides the waterway in two, close to its narrowest point. The United Arab Emirates, a former Saudi ally in the anti-Houthi coalition, had been building an airbase on the island before ending its active involvement in the conflict in January. …
The Houthi progress down the Red Sea coast from the port of Hodeidah also strengthens Iran’s hand in trying to reach an agreement with other Gulf states on future control of the strait of Hormuz, the central dispute between the US and Iran. Iran has reached an agreement on temporary approved routes with Oman, the country sharing the southern coast of the Hormuz strait. The proposed deal is supposed to be discussed at a meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers in the Omani coastal city of Salalah on Monday.
The deal, including a temporary approved route for shipping largely under Iranian control, would – if agreed by the GCC – put pressure on the US to lift its highly effective blockade of Iranian oil ports, which is severely damaging the Iranian economy.

8-11 September
Iranian allies captured a strategic Red Sea island in a vital waterway. Here’s what to know
(CNN) … The news sent shockwaves worldwide over the possible impact on shipping and oil prices, as well as the risk of a new front opening in the US-Iran war.
Bab al-Mandeb is a chokepoint linking Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Although less critical to the oil trade than the Strait of Hormuz, it carries essential goods worldwide, including millions of barrels of oil each day.
Its strategic importance has grown since the US-Iran war began, as Saudi Arabia increasingly uses its Red Sea export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to most shipping. …
Gulf Tankers Are Running Out of Ways to Export Oil: ‘These Waters Aren’t Safe’
Ship operators already faced severe risks in navigating the region, and now the danger is higher as Houthi militias assert control in the Red Sea.
(NYT) The U.S. Navy has been able to keep oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz on sea paths close to the coast of Oman, the opposite side from Iran. But that has required an extensive and dangerous operation.
For shipping companies, the once routine operation of navigating the strait has become a high-risk endeavor. At least 23 ships were hit in the waterway near Oman in July and August. Since the war began at the end of February, at least 22 sailors have been killed in the Middle East. …
As the war in Iran nears its seventh month, it appears to be spinning out of control, analysts said. With no diplomatic end in sight, the Middle East, the epicenter of energy production, is facing its most severe supply crisis in decades.
Iran’s Houthi allies capture strategic island on vital oil shipping route
Rampant Yemeni fighters take control of island in narrow point of Bab al-Mandab strait, which Saudi is relying on for oil exports
(The Guardian) Yemen’s rampant Houthi forces have captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab strait, expanding their control of the narrow waterway, one of the ​world’s vital shipping routes.
The Iran-aligned Houthis took control of the volcanic island after forces allied to the UN-backed, Aden-based government left in the latest of a dramatic series of reverses along Yemen’s west coast in recent days, including the loss of the port city of Mocha on Thursday.
The rapid Houthi advance in Yemen: why it matters and what’s at stake
The Houthis have wrested control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast from Saudi-backed government, giving Iran and its allies control over a key shipping lane
Houthis strike Saudi Arabian cities in significant expansion of Middle East war
Riyadh says it will retaliate after overnight attacks by Iran-backed Yemen group on oil facilities wound more than 70

Scores wounded as Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi Arabia in major regional escalation
(CNN) … The attacks mark a dramatic escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict, which flared up again in July, shortly after the US-Iran ceasefire unraveled, with Houthi missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities and tankers in an expansion of the Middle East war.
… Saudi diplomats had notified US lawmakers in August of a breakdown in political channels with the Houthis and the rebels’ plans to escalate against the kingdom, and sought Washington’s backing to push back, the source said.
“(The Saudis) are aligned with CENTCOM on the next steps and have made European partners aware too,” the source said, referring to the US military’s Central Command, and adding that retaliation had “always been the fallback plan should the Houthis attack.”
It’s unclear what form or intensity that retaliation would take.
… The kingdom is also working to bring other countries, some of which had been wary of being seen as joining the US war with Iran, into efforts to push back against the Yemeni rebels, the source said. …

7 September
Trump’s blockade pushes Iran toward military escalation
(CNN) … Iran’s military officials are increasingly touting new tactics in response to the pressure, threatening to target nations taking part in the blockade and warning that they could broaden the conflict. …

4 September
Scoop: Trump administration drafting post-war Middle East plan
(Axios) The Trump administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on a regional effort to contain Iran and expand normalization of relations between Israel and its neighbors, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources with knowledge of the issue.
Why it matters: While the plan is still in the early stages of drafting, it’s intended to guide the U.S. approach in the Middle East after the Iran war ends and in the final two years of President Trump’s term. Two big events loom over the planning: the Oct. 27 election in Israel and the U.S. midterm elections in November.
Three main elements have been raised as possible parts of the strategy, according to the sources:
– Creating a regional alignment among U.S. allies to contain Iran, with the U.S. as a guarantor.
– Making a concerted effort to bring the regional fallout from the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks closer to a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, reaching a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.
– Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement.