Wednesday Night #2251

Our deepest sympathy to Linda Leith on the death of her beloved husband David Gawley, who, after retirement, built an enviable reputation as a volunteer for the many charitable organizations whose values he shared.

A Tale of Two Elections: Trump Casts Shadow Over Australia and Singapore
Incumbent parties in Australia and Singapore scored unexpected landslide victories on Saturday. A major factor appeared to be voters’ trust that they were best equipped to handle President Donald Trump and his trade policies.
Sounds familiar?
Australia re-elects Anthony Albanese as Labor rides anti-Trump wave to seal crushing win
Opposition leader Peter Dutton fails to dissociate himself from Trump-like rhetoric and policies – and loses his seat
Meanwhile, the Singapore ruling party wins election in landslide
PM Lawrence Wong sought strong support “as he navigates the trade-oriented nation through global economic uncertainties brought by US tariffs.”
People’s Action party retains majority, with sample counts showing it winning all but 10 seats in 97-seat legislature

The Papacy
Eric Reguly, Globe & Mail Bureau Chief, continues his outstanding coverage on Conclave confidential, complete with details like “Many of the new or newish cardinals do not speak Italian, which is the lingua franca of the Vatican. English and Spanish are also widely spoken, though the official language remains Latin – the Vatican uses ATMs with Latin instructions.”
As the Conclave opened on Wednesday, there is much debate in the media about whether the new Pope will be another reformer, or will take the Church back to a more conservative stance. Nobody knows, but it will be fascinating to learn what influence the newer Francis-appointed cardinals will exercise (How Pope Francis shaped the papal conclave to reflect a changing church)

Just because so many eyes are turned to the Conclave, you might be inclined to think that there is a semblance of calm in international relations – think again and take a quick look at the Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker

U.S.-China relations -Good news
On Wednesday it was announced that US, China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva on Saturday.
Top US trade officials will meet with their Chinese counterparts to discuss a de-escalation of their increasingly ugly and damaging trade war. The future of the global economy is riding on their success.

Israel/Gaza/U.S.
In light of the ever-worsening situation in Gaza (Israel may seize all Gaza in expanded operation, officials say), Reuters reports that the U.S. and Israel are discussing a possible US-led administration for Gaza. Presumably, this option would be no worse -and maybe somewhat better?- than Israeli occupation, but it contradicts the Guardian story How Trump’s walkaway diplomacy enabled Israel’s worst impulses –The common perception is that Trump has largely moved on, leaving an emboldened Netanyahu to his own devices

India/Pakistan/Kashmir
The world is anxiously monitoring the escalation of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations ever since militants attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir, killing twenty-five Indian nationals on April 22.
The UN, U.S. and China have all called for de-escalation, with Beijing advocating for an independent investigation into the attack and its suspects.
Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, on Tuesday warned that water from India flowing into neighbouring countries including Pakistan would be stopped, days after suspending the key Indus Waters Treaty.
On Wednesday, India fired missiles on Pakistan. The missiles killed 31 people, including women and children, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan armed forces shot down five Indian jets, apparently after they fired their missiles but while still in Indian airspace.

Russia
Twenty-nine world leaders are expected at Moscow’s World War Two victory commemorations, Kremlin says
Russia is hosting Xi and a number of other leaders for the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Ukraine is aiming to spoil the party Disrupting the Victory Day parade: Ukrainian drones paralyse Moscow airspace for three days in row as the White House continues its efforts to court Moscow on peace talks, but Vance says Russia ‘asking for too much’ to end war with Ukraine

And now to Canada
PM Carney meets Trump
Mainstream media coverage and pundits’ comments are universal in their praise of PM Mark Carney’s handling of Tuesday’s meeting with Trump.
Wednesday’s Globe & Mail adds details concerning the working lunch: “Away from the cameras, during the luncheon meeting, Mr. Trump quizzed Mr. Carney on his opinions on a range of foreign-policy matters, including Russia and Ukraine, Iran, China and Gaza, according to a senior Canadian government official who was in the room during the meeting. The U.S. President asked Mr. Carney how he would handle these matters, the source said. … The President was very keen to hear from Mr. Carney and asked him many questions.”
The quote we like best? “And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign last several months, it’s not for sale, won’t be for sale ever…”. And this from a Facebook post: “This is how you deal with an egomaniacal ignoramus like Trump: put your foot down hard on the issues that matter, then smooth things over with some meaningless positive affirmations. It’s like soothing a toddler who needs to be put to bed.”
A reporter told Carney she had watched his face throughout the Oval Office meeting and couldn’t figure out what he made of it all. Carney started smiling before she finished speaking. “Thank you, I guess, for your question,” he said. “I’m glad you couldn’t tell what was going through my mind.” (Mark Carney goes to the Oval Office and learns a new skill from Donald Trump)
CUSMA-compliant auto parts won’t be hit with tariffs
25% auto part duties were set to go into effect on Saturday
U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance released last Thursday says automobile parts compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on trade will not be hit with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Good Talk — What Now for Carney, For Poilievre, For Singh, For Canada?
How will Carney deal with Trump?… Chantal Hébert’s usual measured responses and Rob Russo offers some details about the Carney-Trump relationship.
While most eyes are focused on Mark Carney’s first meeting with Trump, Politico examines how the new government will “fill out the org chart”
… Not everybody is damaged goods. A new team can use people who’ve been in the room before, can leverage key relationships — and, say, know where the printer is.
… François-Philippe Champagne…recently represented the government in Washington at the IMF and World Bank meetings — and chaired a meeting of his G7 counterparts.
Canada is set to host G7 finance ministers on May 20 in Banff. Champagne is doing the spadework for that gathering — a crucial scene-setter for the G7 leaders’ summit in Kananaskis in mid-June. As Chantal Hébert has pointed out, it’s likely not a good idea for both the PM and his finance minister to be rookies in the House.
— Who stays? …Champagne and International Trade Minister Domenic LeBlanc are two familiar faces “well-positioned to play important, senior roles in the next Cabinet.”
Both are well-aligned with Carney’s economic focus.
Reasons to stick around: “Champagne is a consummate dealmaker…And we all know that LeBlanc is the ‘Mr. Fix It’ who can take any priority file and lead it competently. LeBlanc’s leadership on Can-U.S. will also remain critical, given the relationships he’s developed over the past five months.”

Somehow we missed the alert to Gristle & Bone “a political analysis podcast that cuts through the noise to examine Canadian politics with professional accuracy and just enough witty repartee to keep you locked in. Hosted by Christopher Bourne, Political Science Faculty at Dawson College, and Dónal Gill, Political Science professor at Concordia University…non-partisan insights into major political events, with a focus on context, strategy, and power dynamics.”

Andrew Coyne is out to dismantle ‘comforting myths’ about Canadian democracy
(CBC Radio Sunday Magazine) No matter who you supported in the federal election, one thing we can all celebrate is Canadian democracy… right? Not so fast, says Andrew Coyne. In his new book The Crisis of Canadian Democracy, The Globe and Mail columnist argues that while Canadians like to think we have one of the healthiest democracies in the world, we don’t live in the system we think we do. From an all powerful prime minister’s office to an electoral system that makes too many people’s votes worth too little, Coyne tells Piya Chattopadhyay that Canadians need to demand better from our democracy, because the crisis is only growing worse.

Byron has sent a link to Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin’s Weekly Intel Briefing in which she outlines three issues of importance to the citizens of Michigan. Would that our MPs gave similar clear presentations of the issues of the week.

Thanks to Sandy W Quebec Iron ring celebrates 100 years of the Canadian tradition features 3 generations of Wolofskys.
The Iron Ring: marking 100 years of a uniquely Canadian engineering tradition
(Design Engineering) On the evening of Friday, April 25 inside the Montreal Science Centre, hundreds of Canadian engineering graduates gathered for the ceremonial Calling of an Engineer for the hundredth time.
Celebrated every year in different regions through the country, the ceremony honours graduating engineering students, bestowing them with a gift of an iron ring. However, far from simply an iron ring, since its inception, the Iron Ring has been profoundly representative of the commitment each engineer accepts upon graduation concerning their obligation to serve the public with integrity and ethics.
Overseen and administered by the Corporation of the Seven Wardens across 28 distinct camps in different regions across Canada, the one hundredth Calling of an Engineer was also honoured with a new fine silver coin pressed by the Royal Canadian Mint. The coin celebrates engineering graduates while recognizing the immense contributions of Canada’s engineering community over the course of the past century.
NB AI-generated overview: The Iron Ring Ceremony, officially known as “The Ritual of the Calling of an Engineer,” is a Canadian engineering tradition where graduating engineers, and those with equivalent qualifications, receive an iron ring as a symbol of their professional commitment. This ceremony is administered by The Corporation of the Seven Wardens Inc. through regional branches, or camps, across Canada. The inaugural ceremony was held at the University Club of Montreal in 1925.
Seven Wardens Approve Modernized “Calling of an Engineer”
The Corporation of the Seven Wardens launched a review of the Ritual of the Calling of an
Engineer in February 2022. The mandate of the Ritual Review Committee was “to make the Ritual
meaningful and inclusive for all candidates”.

Melissa Chan has joined Kyle Matthews and Marie Lamensch at the Montreal Institute for Global Security as Journalist in Residence. Melissa is an Emmy-nominated journalist based between Los Angeles and Berlin, and currently focuses on transnational issues, often involving China’s influence beyond its borders, as well as the rise of global authoritarianism and ebb of democracies.

Questions on tariffs, Trump and the economy for Peter Berezin (audio)
CBC Radio Noon (Quebec) with Shawn Apel

Closer to the edge
I mentioned this group last Wednesday. They are doing a great job of singling out and documenting some of the most egregious deportations/disappearances.
On a lighter note, see also their piece
To Whom It May Concern at Google News
Introducing Rook T. Winchester (a close relative of Ron Vara, Peter Navarro’s expert)

Incompetent! – A Randy Rainbow Song Parody

Varia
Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum
Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic, yet another Substack author, is to be congratulated as she writes that The State Department Makes an Enemies List – And I am on it. In the same post she introduces -at least to us- The Kleptocracy Tracker that keeps track of conflicts of interest, outright corruption and policy changes that will facilitate outright corruption.
For background, see Kleptocracy, Inc. in Long reads below.

Best 100 places to eat in Canada
Rural restaurant in Niagara, Ont., Restaurant Pearl Morissette, tops list of best 100 places to eat in Canada. In second place, Mon Lapin, Montreal.

Wondering if PM Carney saw the name of Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty as a good omen before his White House meetong.
Every horse running in Kentucky Derby 2025 is a descendant of this racing legend
…a search of pedigrees shows every horse running in the 151st Kentucky Derby is a descendant of Secretariat.
While it sounds impressive, more often than not, if you go back six generations in most horses, you’ll find they’re a descendant of some great, like Secretariat or Northern Dancer.
What’s the right way to ride a horse? These photos offer an answer.
When we’re surrounded by people who look like us, act like us and share our expectations, we can think that our way of doing things is the only way. In the cowboying world, this might mean the saddle you ride, the type of rope you throw or the hat you wear.
How horses shaped the modern world, from the origins of pants to life-saving vaccines
‘We wear pants because of horses. Prior to riding horses, no one wore pants,’ says historian

Long reads
The Likes of Warren Buffett We Will Never See Again

Conflict Between India and Pakistan
A deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, has triggered a sharp escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides exchanging gunfire across the Line of Control and downgrading diplomatic ties.

Kleptocracy, Inc.
Under Trump, conflicts of interest are just part of the system.
… We are living through a revolutionary change, a broad shift away from the transparency and accountability mandated by most modern democracies, and toward the opaque habits and corrupt practices of the autocratic world. …
Heather Cox Richardson May 6, 2025
In a follow-up story to last night’s information about the Trump family’s cryptocurrency corruption, MacKenzie Sigalos of CNBC reported today that 58 crypto wallets have made more than $10 million each on Trump’s meme coin, gathering a total of $1.1 billion in profits. But 764,000 wallets, mostly owned by small holders, have lost money. Meanwhile, since January the meme’s creators have pocketed more than $324 million in trading fees.

Elbows Up: Carney’s First Face-Off with Trump
Jeremy Kinsman writes “Obviously, the top objective now for Carney is to get the immediate tariffs between the two countries off the table, pending a more definitive settlement of economic issues and re-examination of the terms of the existing CUSMA (aka USMCA), probably moving forward the negotiations set for July 2026 in the treaty review process.”

The argument against Trump’s cuts to pro-democracy work
The cuts would necessitate the elimination of numerous agencies across the board, hitting everything from health research, to civil rights offices to programs catering to the homeless.
The Trump administration has already gutted USAID, the main vehicle for U.S. humanitarian and development assistance, and wants to shut down the bureaus that work on democracy, human rights, refugee and climate change issues.

An Enormous Usurpation’: Inside the Case Against Trump’s Tariffs
The lawsuits challenging Trump’s trade war make powerful legal arguments. Is that enough?