Americas – Cuba 2026

20 July
State Department Frames Cuba as Major Threat via Left-Wing Groups
The report comes amid growing U.S. efforts to overturn Cuba’s government.
A 100-page report released on Monday by the U.S. State Department argues that Cuba has sought to bring down the United States through decades of subversive operations, many of them tied to U.S. domestic left-wing causes.
The report frames Cuba as more dangerous than U.S. officials have typically done in the past. According to the report, Cuban “agents and operatives” operate within “hundreds” of organizations and “collectively represent one of the single largest, most sophisticated and dangerous vectors for hostile foreign influence in modern American history.”
Cuba: the Capital of 21st Century Communism (.pdf)

4 June
US imposes new sanctions on Cuban president and Castro family members
US secretary of state Marco Rubio says anyone providing services to listed entities ‘is at risk of sanctions themselves’
(The Guardian) The United States has announced fresh economic sanctions on Cuba’s president and some of his immediate family, alongside members of the Castro family, in Washington’s latest ramping up of pressure on its communist-led neighbour.
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said on X that the US was “targeting the network that enables and funds Cuba’s subversive and radical operations” because the US would “no longer tolerate radical Marxist regimes” exporting their “poisonous and evil ‘revolution’” to the US and elsewhere.
Rubio said sanctions now applied to the ministry of the revolutionary armed forces of Cuba, the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, Amistur Cuba, and the committees for the defense of the revolution.

27 May
Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion
The Navy’s presence in the Caribbean has not reduced despite the Iran war.
(Politico) The Pentagon has spent months positioning the troops and weapons needed for the U.S. to launch a military attack on Cuba — all it needs is a final go-ahead from Donald Trump.
The president has floated an invasion of the island after economic and political pressure failed to topple the Communist government. But the Navy’s built-up presence in the region — the largest in the world outside the Middle East — would allow the U.S. to act immediately.
These strategically placed assets set the table for military action, from a capture of Havana’s leadership much like the seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to a series of precision strikes. And they open the possibility that the U.S. throws itself into the third international conflict of the Trump administration.
Cuba is “in a lot of trouble,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday at a full Cabinet meeting. “Having a failed state 90 miles from our shores is a threat to the national security of the United States.”

20-21 May
Rubio doubtful of diplomacy with Cuba as Trump raises new threat of military action
(AP) — President Donald Trump and America’s top diplomat on Thursday again raised the specter of U.S. military intervention in Cuba, a renewed threat that takes on greater weight a day after the administration announced criminal charges against the island’s former leader, Raúl Castro.
Trump said previous U.S. presidents have considered intervening in Cuba for decades but that “it looks like I’ll be the one that does it.”
“Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years, doing something,” Trump told reporters when asked about Cuba during an environmental event in the Oval Office. “And, it looks like I’ll be the one that does it. So, I would be happy to do it.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters separately that Cuba has been a national security threat for years because of its ties to U.S. adversaries and that Trump is intent on addressing it.
US indicts Cuba’s former leader Raul Castro: Why it matters
The indictment against Raul Castro echoes earlier US criminal cases targeting Latin American leaders.
(Al Jazeera) The administration of United States President Donald Trump has issued criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro over the 1996 downing of two civilian planes, killing four.
On Wednesday, in a speech from Miami’s Freedom Tower, acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche described the indictment as a historic moment.
Since returning to office for a second term, Trump has escalated sanctions and implemented a de facto fuel blockade against the island, in a bid to prompt leadership change in Havana.
On Wednesday, Trump said, “America will not tolerate a rogue state with hostile foreign military, intelligence and terror operations just ninety miles [145km] from us. We will not rest until people of Cuba once again have freedom.”

14-15 May
With Possible Raúl Castro Indictment, U.S. Eyes Venezuela Playbook
Amid stepped-up surveillance flights, a visit of the C.I.A. director and an energy embargo, the White House is trying to increase pressure on Cuba.
(NYT) “The indictment is one more element in the pressure campaign Trump and Rubio are using to try to force the Cuban government to surrender to U.S. terms at the bargaining table by creating this threat of military action in the hope that it will force the Cubans to back down,” said William LeoGrande, a professor of government at American University. “But the Cubans are not good at backing down.”
Mr. Ratcliffe’s precise message on Thursday to Mr. Castro’s grandson, Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito” or “El Cangrejo” (the Crab), is not known. But one demand was clear: Shut down China’s and Russia’s intelligence stations on the island, which the two countries use to intercept U.S. communications.
Trump administration prepares to seek Raúl Castro indictment as it pressures Cuba, AP sources say
(AP) — The Justice Department is preparing to seek an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, three people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Friday, as President Donald Trump threatens possible military action against the communist-run island.
One of the people told the AP that the potential indictment is connected to Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 shootdown of four planes operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Castro was defense minister at the time.
As Trump seeks to wind down that conflict, speculation has been growing that he may soon turn his attention back to Cuba after pledging earlier this year a “friendly takeover” of the country if its leadership didn’t open up its economy to American investment and kick out U.S. adversaries.
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus specializing in Latin America at the University of California-San Diego, said that any indictment of Castro will play well with voters in south Florida but is unlikely to persuade career war planners in the Pentagon to pursue a second war of choice — this time just 90 miles from Florida.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Raul Castro’s grandson in Havana, US and Cuban officials say
CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials including Raúl Castro’s grandson during a high-level visit to the island Thursday, Cuban and U.S. officials said.
Ratcliffe met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas and the head of Cuban intelligence services, and discussed intelligence cooperation, economic stability and security issues. A CIA official confirmed the meetings to the AP.
Ratcliffe was there “to personally deliver President Donald Trump’s message that the United States is prepared to seriously engage on economic and security issues, but only if Cuba makes fundamental changes,’’ the CIA official said.
An official statement from Cuba’s government noted that Thursday’s meeting “took place … against a backdrop of complex bilateral relations.”

8 May
Rubio defends new US sanctions on Cuba, targeting military-run conglomerate GAESA
(AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday defended the Trump administration’s decision to slap new sanctions on Cuba, the largest of which is against Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A., a business conglomerate operated by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces.
In addition to GAESA and its leader, the sanctions announced Thursday include Moa Nickel, a Cuban joint venture with Canada’s Sherritt International, which immediately announced it would withdraw from the business, ending a 32-year presence on the island.
The May 1 executive order and the new designations announced May 7 significantly expand the legal authority through which the U.S. government can levy sanctions on third-country nationals and firms, explained Lee Schlenker, a research associate at the Quincy Institute’s Global South program, a Washington think tank.

27-28 April
Trump’s Cuba backlash could come from home
(GZERO media) Trump’s deal-making instincts and Cuba’s economic desperation may be pointing toward the same place: an economic opening that keeps the Castro government in place, trades investment for stability, and lets Trump declare a historic victory. Cuba expert Michael Bustamante thinks Trump “might be willing to take that deal any day of the week.”
Cuba has signaled it could accept that. Its terms are simple: no interference in the political system, no demands on who stays in prison. But Bustamante says the political calculus is brutal for the rest of the room. Trump has repeatedly cited Cuban American voters as central to his Cuba policy. He has appointed Cuban Americans to key diplomatic roles, including Secretary of State. An economic deal that leaves the Castro regime untouched would be a very hard sell to that community, and could define Rubio’s political future in Florida.
“Does he go along with it, and how does he sell it to his own community?” Bustamante asks of Rubio. Trump, who doesn’t have to run again, might not care. But for Rubio, and for the Republican coalition in South Florida, the stakes are very different.
Cuba on the brink
Cuba is living through its worst economic crisis in decades. Blackouts, fuel shortages, four-day workweeks, and a mass exodus that has cost the island more than 10% of its population. Trump has made no secret of his ambitions, saying he will have “the honor of taking Cuba.” But a military invasion is not on the cards, according to University of Miami historian Michael Bustamante. On this week’s episode, he joins Ian Bremmer to break down what is really happening on the island, and what Trump can realistically deliver.

9 April
US accused of pressuring Latin America to cut ties with Cuban doctors program
Cuba accuses US of ‘extorting’ countries in pushing them to axe deals with Havana to send doctors on medical missions
Cuba’s foreign minister has accused the United States of “extorting” Latin American countries by putting pressure on them to cancel decades-old deals with Havana for the supply of doctors.
Bruno Rodríguez said the United States was trying to “strangle” the economy of the communist island, which earns billions from its foreign medical missions, after several countries stopped deploying Cuban doctors.
Washington says the program – a major source of pride, and income, in Cuba since the 1960s – amounts to forced labor.
The US stance on the doctors program is part of a campaign of maximum pressure on the Cuban regime by Donald Trump.

22 March
Evan Dyer: Canadian companies could face big losses as change looms in Cuba
Hotel operations and one of the world’s biggest open-pit mines could face expropriation and other claims
(CBC) This week, Canada issued new advice for Canadian companies thinking of Cuban possibilities, warning of “payment risks” amid an “ongoing liquidity crisis.”
And the Canadian Commercial Corporation (CCC), the Crown corporation that helped many Canadian businesses enter the Cuban market, has stopped assisting and encouraging new entries.
“CCC’s Cuba program, delivered in partnership with Export Development Canada, ended as of Jan. 1, 2026,” said spokesperson Liane Cerminara. “The Cuba program concluded due to a convergence of rising financial risk and deteriorating economic conditions.”

Cuban military is ‘prepared’ for potential US aggression, deputy foreign minister says
“Our country has historically been ready to mobilize, as a nation as a whole, for military aggression,” said Carlos Fernández de Cossío.
Speaking to NBC’s Kristen Welker in a sometimes tense interview, Carlos Fernández de Cossío said he doesn’t understand why the U.S. would attack the island — but added, “our military is always prepared. And in fact it is preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression.”
Though the U.S. and Havana are now in discussions, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, Cossío said those discussions do not include regime change — or the release of political prisoners.
“We are in dialogue with the United States to talk about bilateral issues. We’re not talking about prisoners in the United States, and the U.S. has the highest record of prisoners in the world,” Cossío said.
And though Rubio this week asserted that Cuba will collapse “on its own” and Havana’s leaders “don’t know how to fix” the country, Cossío insisted his country is not in any state of collapse.

18 March
Is Cuba Next?
(Global Dispatches) As U.S. pressure mounts and Cuba reels from blackouts, oil shortages, and the loss of Venezuelan support, could the regime finally be nearing a breaking point?
For the first time in nearly 70 years, it looks like there may be major political changes afoot in Cuba — driven by the United States.
The Trump administration has been ratcheting up pressure on the island, including by imposing an oil embargo that is strangling the country’s energy supplies. On Monday, March 16, Cuba experienced a complete collapse of its electric grid, triggering a nationwide blackout. Meanwhile, Cuba’s erstwhile major patron was Venezuela, which, since the ouster of Maduro, no longer provides the support on which Havana once relied. Recent reporting also indicates that Washington and Havana are now engaged in direct talks, even as the Trump administration is explicitly seeking the ouster of President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Trump has also publicly suggested he could “take” Cuba.
16 March
Trump Says He Will Have the ‘Honor’ of ‘Taking Cuba’
President Trump’s words came amid a nationwide blackout and as a top Cuban official said his country would move to open the economy to foreign investors.
(NYT) … “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it,” he said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”
The president’s words came on the same day as Cuba experienced a nationwide blackout, amid diminishing fuel supplies. On Monday evening, Cuban officials had also planned to announce that the country’s Communist government would open itself to foreign investment, including from the United States, Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News.
“Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants,” the deputy prime minister said in a clip of an interview posted by the network on Monday morning.
For the past three months, the United States has choked off Cuba’s access to foreign oil, blocking shipments from Venezuela and elsewhere. Frequent blackouts have followed — including the broad power outage on Monday — and hospitals have had to postpone some procedures, deepening a humanitarian crisis that has also involved food shortages and has led to rare protests on the island.
Trump Administration Said to Tell Cuba That Its President Has to Go
The United States has told Cuba that for meaningful progress to be made in negotiations, President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down, said people familiar with the talks.
In the view of some Trump administration officials, removing Cuba’s head of state would allow structural economic changes in the country that Mr. Díaz-Canel, whom the officials consider a hard-liner, is unlikely to support, one of the people said.
26 February
Regime Change in Cuba Appeals to Trump but Carries Risks
(NYT) The Trump administration is signaling a different approach, after demanding an end to Cuba’s communist leadership.
12 March
Why Cuba is still high on Trump’s radar
(Politico) … The Iran war is occupying much of President Donald Trump’s attention at the moment, but that doesn’t mean regime change in Cuba has fallen off the radar. There’s every sign that toppling Havana remains a high priority — not just for the White House, but for a Republican Party whose nerve center is located in Florid
… Trump himself has been multi-tasking in his various appearances over the past week. Since capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, the U.S. has tightened economic sanctions on Cuba, choking off its access to food, medicine and energy. The president recently noted that the result is the island nation is “at the end of the line,” and is running on “fumes.”
At last weekend’s Shield of the Americas Summit, which convened a dozen Latin American leaders at Trump’s Doral resort — ostensibly to brainstorm strategies for combatting narcoterrorism — Cuba was also center stage.
Late last week at an event in the White House, Trump suggested a Cuba deal is imminent, but that he and Rubio, his secretary of state, are being cautious about the timing.
“Your next one’s going to be — we want to do that special — Cuba,” Trump said, referring to Rubio, who is the son of Cuban immigrants. “He’s waiting. But he says, ‘Let’s get this one finished first.’ We could do them all at the same time. But bad things happen. If you watch countries over the years, you do them all too fast, bad things happen.”

2 March
Attacks on Iran Heighten Fears in Cuba, Already Under U.S. Pressure
Many Cubans are wondering if the Trump administration plans to target their country’s Communist government next.

27 February
Trump raises the possibility of a ‘friendly takeover of Cuba’ coming out of talks with Havana
(AP) — President Donald Trump said Friday that the U.S. is in talks with Havana and raised the possibility of a “friendly takeover of Cuba” without offering any details on what he meant.
Speaking to reporters outside the White House as he left for a trip to Texas, Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in discussions with Cuban leaders “at a very high level.”
“The Cuban government is talking with us,” the president said. “They have no money. They have no anything right now. But they’re talking to us, and maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.”
He added: “We could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.”
Trump didn’t clarify his comments but seemed to indicate that the situation with Cuba, a communist-run island that has been among Washington’s bitterest adversaries for decades, was coming to a critical point. The White House did not respond to requests for more information Friday.

26 February
Canada’s Cuban squeeze
By Mike Blanchfield
(Politico) Here’s an unintended consequence of President Donald Trump’s new Western Hemisphere “Donroe” doctrine: Cuba is looking to Canada to save it from the United States. And it’s putting Canada in a very awkward position, at a moment when it’s already under Trump’s thumb.
The close Canada-Cuba ties that have coexisted with the six-decades plus of the American embargo and diplomatic freeze-out of Cuba’s communist regime have largely flown under Washington’s political radar, dating back to the 1961 Cuban missile crisis. …
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand announced Canada was accelerating an C$8 million commitment to the United Nations World Food Programme for Cuba. That stood in sharp contrast to Mexico’s decision the same day to send two navy ships loaded with food to Cuba in what it called an act “of solidarity with the peoples of Latin America, and in particular with the people of Cuba.”

25-26 February
Cuba says 4 killed in speedboat shooting were attempting to infiltrate the country
(The World) Cuba’s government said late Wednesday that the 10 passengers on a boat that opened fire on its soldiers were armed Cubans living in the US who were trying to infiltrate the island and “unleash terrorism.” The announcement came hours after Cuba said its soldiers killed four people and wounded six others aboard a Florida-registered speed boat that had entered Cuban waters and opened fire on the soldiers first, injuring one Cuban officer. Cuba’s government said the majority of the 10 people on the boat “have a known history of criminal and violent activity.” The Cuban government identified two of the boat passengers as Amijail Sánchez González and Leordan Enrique Cruz Gómez, who are wanted by Cuban authorities “based on their involvement in the promotion, planning, organization, financing, support or commission of actions carried out in the national territory or in other countries, in connection with acts of terrorism.” The government said it also had arrested Duniel Hernández Santos, adding that he was “sent from the United States to guarantee the reception of the armed infiltration, who at this time has confessed to his actions.” Cuba’s government said it obtained the details about the passengers aboard the boat from the suspects detained following the shootout.
What We Know About the Gun Battle Off the Coast of Cuba
(NYT) Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is working to verify what happened and will respond accordingly

23 February
Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports
“Energy is the chokehold to kill” the Cuban regime, said a person familiar with the discussions.
(Politico) The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday.
That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio…
But there are ongoing debates within the administration about whether it is even necessary to go that far, according to all three people. The loss of Venezuelan oil shipments — and the resale of some of those cargoes that Havana used to obtain foreign currency — has already throttled Cuba’s laggard economy. A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis, a possibility that has led some in the administration to push back against it.

19 February
The high price of regime change in Cuba
By ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL
(Politico) Cuba has long been the prize in the Trump administration’s Western Hemisphere policy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has throughout his political career called for an end to the island’s communist government. But Rubio and other administration officials have also recognized that “the road to Havana runs through Caracas,” meaning the administration needed to address Venezuela before turning to Cuba.
In the wake of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, Venezuela has halted free oil shipments to Cuba, further squeezing the island’s economy. U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening secondary tariffs on any country that works to help Cuba, so no clear replacement is on the horizon. …
But as the Trump administration ratchets up economic pressure against Havana in an effort to secure regime change, the potential human cost of that change is coming into view. International airlines have suspended flights to Cuba after the government announced that it would soon be unable to refuel planes that land at its airports. Blackouts grow longer and longer. So do the food lines at government bodegas in major cities.
Worries are emerging that the intense economic pressure campaign against Cuba could trigger one of the worst humanitarian and migration crises in Latin American history. …
In some corners of the foreign policy establishment, the hope is that the Trump administration will cut a deal with Havana that will provide a transition to democracy over time. Such a scenario would likely avoid the most extreme human suffering on the island and prevent Cuba from becoming a failed state.
Trump told reporters Monday night that Rubio is leading talks with Cuba and reiterated his confidence that a deal would happen soon. Yet in the absence of specifics, it’s hard to know how soon a deal could come, if at all. Cuba, for its part, denies any major talks are ongoing and maintains that official contact between both sides is minimal.
When Trump earlier this month made claims the U.S. is engaged in high-level talks with Cuban officials, chatter swirled that the scion of the Castro family, Alejandro Castro Espín, was leading talks with the CIA in Mexico. Those reports were wrong, but not far off the scent. Axios and The Miami Herald have reported that Rubio is speaking with Raulito Castro, the grandson and caretaker of aging de facto Cuban dictator Raúl Castro.

18 February
Venezuela cracked. Will Cuba follow?
Ian Bremmer
The lights are going out in Cuba. There are no planes landing at Havana’s international airport; the jet fuel’s gone. Buses have stopped running across most of the capital. The streets are full of garbage, most of the trucks can’t run. Embassies are closing or drawing down staff. More than half the island’s electric grid is offline. Cuba’s economy is in freefall – one engineered in Washington.
Fresh off his Venezuela win, President Donald Trump has turned his sights on the Cuban regime, betting he can replicate the playbook that worked against Nicolas Maduro: strangle the economy until the regime cracks and cuts a deal. It’s a bet Trump has made before, during his first term, when he reversed the Obama-era loosening of relations with Cuba and implemented a “maximum pressure” campaign.
In fact, the United States has been trying to get rid of Cuba’s communist government since Fidel Castro marched into Havana in 1959. The playbook has included nearly everything. A full-blown military invasion at the Bay of Pigs in 1961 that collapsed within two days. Hundreds of CIA assassination plots involving poisoned cigars, exploding seashells, and mafia hitmen. A sweeping trade embargo imposed in 1962 that’s now the longest-running sanctions regime in US history. Covert sabotage campaigns under Operation Mongoose featuring bombings of sugar refineries and civilian targets. And decades of diplomatic isolation meant to strangle the regime economically and politically.
Cuba is more isolated than it’s been since 1991. With Maduro in US custody and Venezuela now firmly under Washington’s thumb, Havana has lost its main patron of the past two decades. Russia, which maintains a military and intelligence foothold on the island, is fully committed to its war in Ukraine and can’t afford to prop up distant allies. China hasn’t stepped in to fill the gap. The Venezuela operation also sent a message. US special forces killed at least 32 Cuban intelligence and military officials who were guarding Maduro, suffering no American casualties. The US has far more asymmetric leverage and military might than it did during the Cold War.

Russia hosts Cuban foreign minister and urges US not to blockade Cuba
(AP) — Russian top officials hosted Cuban foreign minister for talks in Moscow on Wednesday and spoke out in support of the island nation as it faces blackouts and severe fuel shortages worsened by a U.S oil embargo.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and later in the day with President Vladimir Putin.
Lavrov urged the U.S. to refrain from blockading Cuba, which has struggled to import oil for its power plants and refineries after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened any nation that sold oil to Cuba with tariffs.
“Together with most members of the global community, we are calling on the U.S. to show common sense, take a responsible approach and refrain from its plans of sea blockade,” Lavrov said during the talks with Rodriguez.
He promised that Moscow will “continue supporting Cuba and its people in protecting the country’s sovereignty and security.”

17 February
Trump Calls Cuba a “Failed Nation” and Refuses to Rule Out Military Action
(Democracy Now!) President Trump called Cuba a “failed nation” on Monday and refused to rule out military action aimed at toppling its government. Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One.
President Donald Trump: “And they should absolutely make a deal, because it’s a — it’s really a humanitarian threat. … We’ll see how it all turns out, but Cuba and us, we are talking. In the meantime, there’s an embargo. There’s no oil. There’s no money. There’s no anything.”
Cuba’s deputy foreign minister responded to Trump’s remarks, writing, “It is frequent for U.S. officials and diplomats to claim that U.S. aggression is not responsible for difficulties in Cuba. It seems they don’t listen to their President.” The Trump administration’s blockade of fuel has triggered a severe humanitarian and economic crisis in Cuba, compounding the impact of the U.S. economic embargo that’s been in place since 1962. On Monday, Spain’s Foreign Ministry said it would use United Nations channels to send humanitarian aid to Cuba. The announcement came a day after activists rallied outside the Cuban Embassy in Mexico City, expressing solidarity with the Cuban people, while protesting the U.S. blockade.

16 February
Trump Says Rubio Is Talking With Cuba as Economic Crisis Deepens
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
– President Donald Trump said US government officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are in discussions with Cuba’s Communist regime.
– Trump told reporters that Cuba should “absolutely make a deal” because its economic conditions are a “humanitarian threat”.
– The Trump administration is willing to provide more humanitarian aid to Cuba, according to Rubio, after the country’s government lost its main patron when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured.

12 February
Why is the U.S. cutting Cuba off from the rest of the world? (video)
(CBC About That) U.S. President Donald Trump is applying severe economic pressure to an already-strained Cuba mired in a food and power crisis. Andrew Chang explains why the U.S. is choosing now to cut off the country’s oil supply, and why, for Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, it’s also personal.

10 February
How far will Trump push Cuba?
Dr Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House
Cuban-American voters and US law will hinder the president’s freedom of action. But if Trump pushes too hard, he may create a serious problem.
(Chatham House) The US’s 64-year embargo on Cuba is about to get a lot tougher. The Trump administration has cut off the estimated 27,000 to 35,000-barrel-per-day deliveries of cheap Venezuelan oil to the island and is threatening tariffs on countries that may think about trying to fill the void.
The end of that oil lifeline comes as Cuba is already suffering its worst economic crisis since the 1959 revolution – one that has brought rolling electrical blackouts, declining hard currency reserves, and food and fuel shortages.
President Donald Trump has said that he’s offered a deal to the Cuban government, headed by Miguel Díaz-Canel, and that the two governments are having discussions. The Communist Cuban regime faces an impossible choice: concede to White House demands that will threaten its power – for instance, to release political prisoners and hold elections – or try to use repression to cling on through a looming humanitarian crisis that could erupt into chaos and/or massive outmigration.
Domestic politics, proximity, the comparative coherence of the Cuban regime and the limits on what Donald Trump can offer in any potential deal mean that a game of chicken with the Cuban government could have a host of unintended consequences. Those consequences could potentially become more violent and politically fraught than those in Venezuela. In a country so close to the US, this is a very real risk of Trump’s pressure policy – and may anger his political base far more than Venezuela has.

Cubans wonder if they could be next after Venezuela as rumours swirl about U.S. talks
Unconfirmed reports of secret meetings with CIA as island nation faces energy collapse
(CBC) Cubans, who often tune out when their leaders give speeches, were more than usually interested on Thursday when President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed the nation on television following rumours that the Cuban government is talking with the Trump administration about ending one-party rule.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 1 that talks are underway. “Cuba is a failing nation. It has been for a long time, but now it doesn’t have Venezuela to prop it up,” he said. “So we’re talking to the people from Cuba, the highest people in Cuba, to see what happens.”
On Thursday, Díaz-Canel merely said Cuba was “willing to engage in dialogue with the United States, a dialogue on any topic, but without pressure or preconditions.”
A Trump executive order of Jan. 29 placed new sanctions on countries that sell oil to Cuba, effectively blockading the fuel supply that powers the island’s disintegrating electrical grid. Most of Cuba’s oil came from Venezuela, but that source was cut off when the U.S. seized its president, Nicolás Maduro, and attacked the capital last month.
Cuba’s electrical grid is in desperate condition, and daily power cuts were standard for many Cubans even before the oil blockade.
The country can produce about 30 per cent of the oil it needs, but it is heavy and sulphurous, and its use has damaged generating stations that are already far past their intended lifespans. Efforts to introduce solar power have had limited success due to lack of batteries.
Oil analysts believe the island has only weeks of remaining fuel supplies, even with the rolling blackouts the government has implemented and the suspension of public transit reported in many places.
Mexico had initially stepped up to replace supplies that used to come from Venezuela, but state oil company Pemex changed its mind on Jan. 26. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was forced to deny that Mexico had changed course under pressure from the Trump administration, as widely reported.

30 January
Trump threatens tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba, backing Mexico into a corner
(AP) — President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order that would impose a tariff on any goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a move that could further cripple an island plagued by a deepening energy crisis.