U.S.-China relations May 2026-

China’s rare earth industry has critical weakness, researchers warn
New study finds China lagging behind Japan and the US in key patents for advanced rare earth technologies
(SCMP) NATO member states unveiled a series of defence initiatives on Tuesday aimed at strengthening weapons development, production and supply chains in response to security challenges posed by Russia and China.
Speaking at the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum (NSDIF) on the first day of this year’s summit in Ankara, Turkey, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte announced several new projects involving member states and defence contractors to bolster the alliance’s advanced military capabilities.
Among them was a multinational initiative on defence-critical raw materials involving 12 NATO member states: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Turkey.

24 June
The copper crunch: inside the US-China battle for a critical global supply chain
Washington’s efforts to rebuild the domestic copper industry are colliding with Chinese dominance in a metal central to advanced tech and defence systems
(SCMP) As China and the United States compete for leadership in AI, energy and other strategic sectors, a quieter but no less important contest is taking place further down the supply chain: the race to secure copper.
The humble metal has become one of the most vital commodities of the 21st century, powering the servers, systems and cooling infrastructure that support artificial intelligence as well as the batteries used in electric vehicles and the electronics guiding modern weapons.
That growing importance risks fuelling geopolitical tensions. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is expected to deliver an updated assessment of the market to the White House by June 30, after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last year to revive America’s domestic industry. …

20 June
China is counting its wins from the Iran war
(CNN analysis) When US and Israeli bombs first began falling on Iran at the end of February, China’s leaders were staring at the very real possibility of another friendly regime being decapitated, much like had happened with Venezuela only weeks before.
The view is quite different nearly four months later: the United States and Iran have reached an interim agreement after weeks of peace talks, but the regime in Tehran remains in place and the war is widely seen to have exposed the limits of American power.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s own diplomatic clout has appeared to rise – as it’s hosted a parade of foreign leaders and cast itself as a proponent of peace, even earning repeated praise from US President Donald Trump for its response to the war.
The world’s second largest economy has also weathered the historic energy crunch triggered by the conflict better than many of its neighbors – in particular due to its copious strategic oil reserves and embrace of green tech and electric vehicles.

18 May
Trump’s China trip highlights bipartisan shift in Washington’s approach to Beijing
Lawmakers from both parties move debate from trade and engagement towards security, Taiwan and strategic rivalry with Beijing
(SCMP) While Democrats criticised Trump for appearing too accommodating towards Beijing, many Republicans also stressed that economic engagement with China should not come at the expense of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, underscoring the increasingly bipartisan nature of US China hawkishness.
Few lawmakers from either party opposed the summit itself, however, reflecting a broader acceptance in Washington that communication between the world’s two largest economies remains necessary even as strategic rivalry intensifies.

14-16 May
The Xi-Trump summit is over. What comes next in the US-China rivalry?
The US president’s trip to Beijing has been hailed as ‘fantastic’ and ‘historic’ but there are still many known unknowns in ties
(SCMP) During a photo call after the walk, Xi described Trump’s visit as “historical” and “a landmark”, adding that “important consensus was made on issues both sides are interested in”, according to the Chinese summary.
Trump described his whirlwind state visit to Beijing as “fantastic” and once again praised Xi, calling him an old friend of over 11 years and highlighting how their personal connection had made it possible for them to resolve many thorny issues.
Trump and Xi will have the chance to renew that relationship later this year, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi confirming that Xi will pay a state visit to the United States in the autumn.

Trump leaves China after much pomp and pageantry, but little to show for it
US president’s much-anticipated summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing resulted in more fanfare than concrete policy change, analysts say
(SCMP) “The economic deliverables coming out of the Trump-Xi meeting are way below expectations. In light of the priority Trump puts on the economic-trade leg of the bilateral relationship, it’s disappointing that more wasn’t accomplished,” said Wendy Cutler, a former acting deputy US Trade Representative, whose experience tussling with China extends back to its 2001 accession into the World Trade Organization.
But years of spiralling US-China tension do not disappear in 48 hours, even if the US president is not distracted by a war that contributed to sub-par US preparation, prompting analysts to hedge, adding that they would suspend full judgment until more details emerge in the coming days and weeks.
Among the unseens and unknowns included word on the frequently teased Board of Trade, Board of Investment and mega Chinese sales of soy and other US farm products; Chinese confirmation of a 200-aircraft Boeing purchase deal, itself below expectations; any extension of the trade truce; and any progress on a slew of business and market opening deals.

Paul Krugman: My President Went to China, and All I Got Was Even More Expensive Gasoline
Higher oil exports hurt most Americans
… We still have a looming crunch because a significant amount of oil demand is being met by drawing down inventories and we’re kind of getting to crunch point there but that’s a whole other issue.
Now the downside for the United States is that more oil shipped abroad, unless we have a large increase in US production— which is not happening and won’t happen any time quickly — that means more oil being shipped abroad means less oil for the US market so prices have risen.

Trump’s and Xi’s Body Language at the Summit Mirrored Their Styles
Although at odds over issues like trade and Taiwan, the U.S. and Chinese leaders met in Beijing with a show of friendly gestures.
(NYT) For two leaders at odds on many fronts — Taiwan, trade, rare earth resources, among others — Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, suggested they wanted the rivalry to be more friendly than not.
The body language stood in stark contrast to Mr. Trump’s harsh criticism of China at home, and to many of his meetings with longtime U.S. allies.

8-11 May
Does the Trump-Xi Summit Signal a G2 World? (audio)
Jeremy Kinsman and Peter Donolo with Howard Balloch, Canada’s former ambassador to China
(Open Canada) Just days before Donald Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing, Jeremy Kinsman and Peter Donolo welcome back Howard Balloch, Canada’s former ambassador to China, to discuss the state of play heading into ​the summit and​ various scenarios that may emerge from it.
Balloch’s view is that Xi arrives with a clear strategy, while Trump remains far harder to predict. The discussion turns to Taiwan, China’s long game, the risks of a new G2-style world order, and what smaller powers like Canada can do when the two most powerful countries increasingly shape the rules around trade, security​ and global stability.
Trump heads to China weakened as Xi gains leverage ahead of summit
Iran war, tariff setbacks and sliding US poll numbers reshape the balance going into next week’s high-stakes talks
(SCMP) US President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to China comes as the Iran war disrupts global energy supplies, fuels economic uncertainty and adds fresh strain to Washington-Beijing ties. In the latest part of a series examining how rivalry, interdependence and geopolitical crises are reshaping the relationship between the two powers, we look at how Trump’s weakened hand could tilt summit talks.
When next week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was first proposed, Trump was riding relatively high and Xi was holding steady against his impetuous counterpart.
Six months later, Trump heads to Beijing politically dented and militarily overextended, factors that diplomacy experts, China analysts and former government officials say will shape the meeting’s tenor.

China’s Manus block a show of strength ahead of Xi-Trump summit
Beijing’s manoeuvring highlights its resolve and suggests it feels it has the upper hand in negotiations ahead of Trump’s visit
(SCMP) … This episode also serves as an intriguing footnote to the coming summit between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing.
… Concerns linger about further delays if nuclear talks falter and US military actions resume, but the summit is likely to proceed. Another postponement would complicate scheduling, and both leaders have strong incentives to stabilise ties amid global volatility.
Beijing perceives that it has a stronger negotiating position. The US remains preoccupied with the Middle East, while Trump faces looming midterm elections and seeks tangible “wins”. These could include major Chinese purchases of US agricultural products and Boeing aircraft.
Wrapped in a Boeing: will Trump’s China visit include another aircraft deal?
In the second instalment of a series examining how rivalry, interdependence and geopolitical crises are reshaping the relationship between the two powers, we weigh the odds of a major deal for Boeing aircraft after nearly a decade without a significant order from Chinese airlines.

4-7 May
What will happen when Trump meets Xi?
President Donald Trump is set to visit Beijing on May 14 and 15 for meetings with President Xi Jinping. Brookings experts weigh in on how Trump and Xi’s interaction could impact several areas of U.S.-China relations—including AI, fentanyl, energy, and Taiwan—and how the summit’s success will be measured.
Low expectations amid fears of escalation
(Brookings) Jonathan Czin: Low expectations amid fears of escalation
Outside observers should have low expectations for the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi. While the relationship has stabilized since the two leaders met last November, it remains fragile—defined more by an absence of friction than any affirmative agenda or deep dialogue on the substantial differences that bedevil the relationship. Many Chinese analysts expect a U.S. snap back to a more competitive China policy, either after the midterms or after Trump steps down in 2029. Beijing seems focused on using this interregnum to enhance its position vis-à-vis the United States. Likewise, many in the Trump administration and on Capitol Hill favor a return to sustained strategic competition.
The summit’s diplomacy has only reinforced the deeper drivers diminishing the likelihood of substantive gains. The reported meager bureaucratic preparations for this meeting limit the prospects for progress. Counterintuitively, by signaling early and loudly a desire for multiple presidential encounters this year, the Trump administration may have reduced Beijing’s incentive to offer any major concessions. Chinese officials believe they will extract more value from concessions later, calculating that Trump—the self-identified consummate dealmaker—will want to tout any agreement as a major breakthrough ahead of the midterm elections.
Ryan Haas Prolonging the uneasy calm in U.S.-China relations
A key lesson from 2025 for Trump and Xi was that they both could harm the other, but not without inviting painful retaliation. As a result, both leaders agreed to a trade war truce when they met on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Busan last October.
Trump appears focused on preserving this truce and using the time to build insulation against dependence on China for key inputs such as rare earths. This focus likely will guide his visit to Beijing. …
‘The biggest China dove in the administration’: Trump to test limits of dealmaking in Beijing
(Politico) … The wrangling over the business delegation is just one sign of the delicate balancing act administration officials are trying to strike on the commercial relationship between the world’s two largest economies, with Trump’s desire to tout splashy, high-dollar investment deals with foreign countries at odds with a widening Washington consensus that Chinese investment is a threat to national security.
“… He’s always been focused on making deals with China. That’s just who he is — he wants a deal,” said one person close to the White House….
Chinese officials are expected to dangle lucrative deals during the May 14-15 summit in Beijing, likely in exchange for concessions on U.S. tariffs or other trade restrictions. That runs counter to the decadeslong effort by members of both parties — embraced by many in Trump’s own White House — to crack down on Chinese private sector investment in the U.S., and vice-versa. In that sense, the president’s trip to Beijing is shaping up as a high-stakes test of how far he is willing to lean into business-driven dealmaking with the country’s biggest economic rival — and risk political blowback back home.
Trump advisers step up their calls on China to help open Strait of Hormuz ahead of Beijing summit
This comes ahead of the highly anticipated summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week. Read more.
Why this matters:
• On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Chinese officials to use Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to China to urge Tehran to release its chokehold on the critical waterway. After meeting with Araghchi on Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was “deeply distressed” over the war. He also said a “comprehensive ceasefire” was needed.
• The Chinese comments could inject new energy into stalled efforts to push for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran that would end the war. They followed an earlier statement by Trump that he was pausing his short-lived U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz in hopes that a deal could be finalized.
(AP) Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Chinese officials to use Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to China to urge Tehran to release its chokehold on the critical waterway. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Araghchi on Wednesday, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
“I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told,” Rubio said during a White House briefing Tuesday. “And that is that what you are doing in the strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this.”
The secretary went on to argue that China has been hit harder than the U.S. by Iran’s effective shuttering of the strait during the two-month old war. Beijing’s export-driven economy depends on shipments going through the strait. China also imports about half of its crude oil and almost one-third of its liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
China is stepping up its Iran war diplomacy ahead of Trump’s summit with Xi
(AP) China’s diplomatic role in the Iran war has come into sharper focus following talks between Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers on Wednesday [6 May], days before U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Beijing’s profile in international diplomacy has risen in recent years. Long reluctant to get involved in conflicts far from its borders, it has nevertheless emerged as a major player with attempts to mediate conflicts from Southeast Asia to Europe.
Beijing is not an official mediator in the Iran war, but all parties — including Washington and Tehran — say it has played an important role in efforts to de-escalate the conflict. The Trump administration is pressing China to use its influence with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s top envoy meets with Iran’s in Beijing as Trump pauses US effort in the Strait
(AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday evening he was pausing the U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz to allow time for a deal to end the Iran war, but that the American forces’ blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.
An unfinished Iran war could give Xi the upper hand in Trump talks, sources say
(CNN) China remains committed to the upcoming meeting between its leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump regardless of the situation in the Middle East, and cautiously views its adversary’s months-long conflict with Iran as having potentially strengthened its negotiating position, according to Chinese sources familiar with the matter.
The rare in-person meeting, already once delayed due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, is now scheduled for May 14-15, according to the White House. Several sources indicate Beijing views the high-stakes summit as a singular opportunity to secure a more stable long-term relationship with its largest economic and military competitor.
But despite the perceived advantage, sources said Beijing remains extremely cautious, with opinion among government insiders split as to how to navigate the myriad complications unleashed by the conflict, not least the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz – through which China imports about a third of its oil and gas – remaining closed when Trump arrives in the Chinese capital.

Five things to watch as Trump goes to Beijing
(Brookings) For weeks, it has been unclear whether President Donald Trump would travel to Beijing as planned for his postponed meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump appears intent on moving forward, even suggesting he expects a “big, fat hug” from Xi.
Trade: An extension of the truce or something more?
Taiwan and the risk of rhetorical concessions
Defining the U.S.-China relationship: a new framework?
Global crises and wider strategic tensions
What comes next?